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Smelled A Rat
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Smelled A Rat

by The MoleJuly 12, 2017

Quite often the difference between a profitable month and a losing one lies in not being drawn into low probability campaigns and obvious retail traps. I’m pretty sure most of you would agree that I don’t pad my own shoulder often here. But when I actually do it’s not for a campaign that turned into a big winner but one that looked good on the surface and I cautioned you against taking. 

2017-07-12_spoos_bear_trap

And if you look at my two recent posts then you know that that short entry looked extremely tempting, but due to warning sings on the momo side, bullish signals on the Zero, and of course lack of sync across the three major indices, it was just too much of a risk to take. Especially during summer and before Yellen would of course do what she does best – kick the Dollar straight into the nuts again. The rest is history and the daily panel has us now above the first NLBL  with the second probably history by the end of today’s session. When she runs she runs.

2017-07-12_copper_update

You may recall our copper campaign which looked like it would turn into a loser. Fortunately it turned on a dime yesterday and is now looking like a bonafide trend candidate. TI’m moving my trail to the next spike low which locks in about 0.8R. I think this one has potential to get us all the way to 2.75 – yum yum :-)

2017-07-12_AUDUSD_update

The AUD/USD was an entry last week and its progressing beautifully, especially with the Dollar now officially circling the toilet bowl. Just locked in 2R and that makes the Mole a very happy camper.

2017-07-12_USDJPY_update

The USD/JPY found a very timely ending today and stopped me out at a respectable 3.5R. No complaints here whatsoever, this campaign was executed perfectly and exited just 0.5R < MFE. I wish all my campaigns would run like this, although it wasn’t an easy one by any definition as you can see from all the whipsaw in between. The patient and disciplined trader banks the coin. Oh yeah, and penitent, you’ve got to be penitent.

2017-07-12_usdjpy_gold

Gold (shown here inversely) remains closely correlated with the USD/JPY. Which is of course falling like a rock this morning post Yellen. And that in turn means gold is ramping like crazy right now.

2017-07-12_bonds_snoozed

I’m kind of kicking myself regarding bonds today. Just yesterday I looked at that short term formation and the 100-day SMA touch and was very tempted to get a small position. Thought better (or more like worse) of it and missed out a huge run today. Well, as I used to say in high school – you can’t get ’em all, but you may as well damn try.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Grant

    Janet to the rescue!! Nice work Mole. Could you post today’s zero at the end of the session? I always enjoy seeing it in comparison to the bar chart in action!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @Julie – see my comments in the previous thread.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Doesn’t really help me though as I live in Europe now :-(

  • Mark Shinnick

    Miners hit objective so closed out. Setting hook pretty good in equities I suppose.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I hope you were long?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And yes, I’ll post it tonight.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Kicking off strong – we may see a trend day today:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3f55451531ad043ddf6eeac34b86b0641c0aa5922c5cff0fd798685c4aab8a28.png

    Watch out for signal divergences mid session.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    But don’t short until you see price weakness. Often the signals become overwhelmed and produce blue reversal signals. Ignore those during trend days.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, at least for JNUG there was no more probable upside to be had for the time being.

  • Yoda

    Very strong indeed. Definitively not the time to be short the tape now. This looks like a runner.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, in my case I’ll go short fairly soon around this level because its right at an inflection. Would usually happen within only some minutes from now….but also can’t be rushed.

  • Mark Shinnick

    So, at this point I’ll begin raising the stops…

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Now there’s some trader humor.

    I may just walk away and get some other stuff done this morning, while this resolves itself. Fed testimony is such a nothingburger. Looking at $BKX for something, and not seeing much yet, at least for me.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, if volatility is going to pick up it will usually be somewhere around here. If it doesn’t that would be some tell for a runner. I only imagine that while retail listens in mesmerization to Yellen, real-deal loading-up is going on by serious participants.

  • ridingwaves

    Yellen: Expect Balance Sheet Unwind to Go Smoothly

    how can one know an outcome on something that has never been done in financial history?

  • OJuice

    I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt and assume she says that because she has to. Part of the job etc. But, what if she actually believes that statement to be 100% true…

  • ridingwaves

    but this guys thinks differently
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jamie-dimon-says-qe-unwind-could-catch-investors-by-surprise-2017-07-11
    ‘We’ve never had QE like this before, we’ve never had unwinding like this before. Obviously that should say something to you about the risk that might mean, because we’ve never lived with it before.’
    Jamie Dimon

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exactly. To that we add other credible central bank association commentary acknowledging likelihood of divestiture effects. Meanwhile, BTFD Millennials are BZ investing on their smartphones.

  • ridingwaves

    I just wonder if spx barely sells off at times and climbs until August and someone in Jamie’s IB crew starts to front run the plan and pares bullish bets while going short early

  • Julie

    Hi Mole and everyone .I will post charts in future. DUST indeed came down to upper boundary of the cloud and bounced with an intraday reversal BAC down to it’s 13 ema and I took 1/2 off short I have a target BAC @ 24 which is very strong support. BAC MACD 5.34.5 rolling over.

    We trapped 3 racoons last night and moved them to a nice place. Did not go to sleep until 3 :30 a.m LOL !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…in essence isn’t that what CB’s are already doing after giving excellent fair notice to the world that the game is on? To this we apply the general concepts that the market discounts 18, or so months into the future. We all may just wake one day to discover the boat left a bit earlier than expected – that’s been the trend of technology.

  • Julie

    Ozarkhillbilly I agree with your view KO EOD I may short I did not expect the gap up SPX this morning. I currently have no position in the indices . Need a clearer picture esp $RUT
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Here’s a take on clarity… TZA now at local highs while most volatility is selling off-flat.

  • Julie

    TZA a nice lower trend line from last December with today’s low slightly above …. Nice bounce …. Thank You
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Now, keeping in mind a bigger picture with the daily, I believe the goal should be obtaining a longer term position. Daily data about this zone keeps building in importance and remains very credible even with some shot stabbing into that trendline.

  • Julie

    Weekly chart TZA a nice positive divergence MACD 5,34,5 above it’s signal line. The weekly declining 21 ema looks like a viable initial target Must get back to work Break over
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Here’s something you might think is funny; none of my systems calculate with any such technicals…because I just never could.

  • Julie

    LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    When I lived in L.A. a family of raccoons always climbed the tree in front of our house and ripping through the trash. I kind of like ’em but you don’t want your cats or even dogs to run into them. Furious fighters and they’ll rip right through ’em.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good man!

  • Julie

    Mole a poster on another blog hit the nail on the head Yellen has a face made for radio and a voice made for silent movies Lol !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, really good at giving cat abdominal gut releases….cat’s too friggin stupid. Coon mom’s seem to like to stare while the kids move onwards and then they all meet up again downstream.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Faith in good systems !

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Sorry for the delayed response; I checked out for awhile. I basically agree with you about the inflection zone, across several indices. Just waiting at this point, maybe until tomorrow. In the meantime, it’s back to mowing the grass.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, inflections seem to be the end point of systems; its that trigger pull that usually makes all the difference.

  • Julie

    Racoons are tough. IMO nothing more vicious than an owl or a wolverine. Camping we saw a wolverine …. Yipes a bear will walk around one
    JULIE

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I have to deal with them as well. I’ve negotiated a deal; they are free to rummage in the compost, and in return, they don’t mess with anything else. Seems to work, as my neighbors constantly have to deal with raccoons dumping the trash or tearing things apart.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Right! If anything, I’m extra cautious about pulling the short trigger, to avoid the cardinal sin of trying to top tick the market. It’s been easier to short some of the recent swing highs over the last few weeks, through my lens, rather than jump in here when the bears are foaming at the mouth.

  • Julie

    SPX the bounce off the daily 55 ema corresponded with a MACD 5,34,5 centerline test. This bounce could get some legs. If so gonna watch targets 2470 and 2485. 2485 will approx intersect the highs of an upper trend line April 26 – June 2
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    shorts look to be in trouble in CYTR, added at .62

  • Mark Shinnick

    This is one reason I love this blog; its participants tend to be the real deal observers about the specialized human violence we agree to be involved with.

  • Julie

    BAC I took 1/2 off my short earlier today with the bounce off the daily 13 ema corresponding to a minor support and a 23 % fib retracement from June 6 Will cover remaining 1/2 on the 60 min chart with a positive close above VWAP and 60 min 8 ema. Positive divergence 60 min CCI (20) and MACD 5,34,5 may have bottomed
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Strong violence above .67?

  • Julie

    May short the semis …. 62% retracement and into strong resistance $SOX 1100. SMH volume diminishing on this bounce. overbought stochs 5,3 No hurry a reversal candle on the daily chart
    JULIE

  • Julie

    The lack of strong wording concerning raising interest rates by Yellen today along with a decline in bond yields did not go over with the banks today. Still short BAC 1/2 position
    JULIE

  • Julie

    CAT today a gravestone doji on a breakout ! Yeah ! A stock I am watching
    JULIE

  • Greed is Good

    Nice market observations Julie.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think Julie is picking up the slack while the GoldGerb is on vacation – LOL :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Make sure there is additional context nearby. Those candle patterns on their own actually have very low odds if you run the stats on them. I know they are being peddled to retail all over the place but very few people actually bother to run the numbers. The same by the way applies to inside and outside candles.

    Here’s more if you actually want to get the real story on candle patterns. The truth hurts but in the end your life will get easier (after it got a lot harder – hehe).

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I actually acquired a video of the negotiation:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vySgYadgKsw

  • Julie

    MOLE left a blog due to an obnoxious troll Found a new home Mole HERE ! The troll is a stalker ….. Terrible experience ….. No one here would believe what this guy does ….
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Mole Tom Bulkowski has rated the effectiveness of candles and candle patterns. His site is free
    JULIE

  • JH

    Props on a splendidly executed usdjpy campaign.. good entry, management, exit.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Never feed the trolls. There are good traders here, lots of experience.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Tom Bulkowski’s site is a work of pure fiction.

    His results are literally made up.

    It’s bullshit.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    If you don’t do your own testing you CANNOT trust it. That goes for me, Mole, everybody. We all lie to ourselves, believe in things without evidence.

    It’s easier to google something, and believe it, than do the work of checking if it’s an edge.

  • Julie

    I know that is why I am here now Thank You
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    the post title could have been “smelled a Gerb”
    they are part of the Rodentia family of mammals ya know….

  • ridingwaves

    Pic from hike on Friday, only problem is $7 bucks to cross the GG bridge….Janet theres some inflation for ya……I think this symbol is going to find a 1.00
    https://s2.postimg.org/honf5ndg9/DSC_0586.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Gee, turn my back and in come the attacks. I bathe every day. Snakes can’t smell me. Down in SanDiego now. LA too warm! -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    go bonds, maybe 50% can be recovered

  • Julie

    $PLAT(platinum) up 2.26% today with a strong candle. Very favorable COT report … Commercial net short position very low
    JULIE

  • Julie

    The very important 900 support zone mentioned in previous thread
    JULIE

  • Julie

    USO today stalling at it’s daily 34 ema. Previous advance pulled back from 34 ema.Strong support 9.26 and today’s low 9.27. 9.32 is Ichi Cloud conversion line Gonna watch this on the 30 min chart Thursday… I like this site Thanks Mole and everyone ….. Total respect with constructive ideas and critic. Great humor here too ! If I post too much let me know. I really enjoy trading and the markets
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GS is a classic Wycoff principal. In April a SC (selling climax and an AR (automatic reaction) In May a retest of the selling climax and a spring (support) followed the retest. Have not had the SOS (sign of strength) or Jump The Creek above the AR.
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GS Looking for the SOS jumping the creek then a fall back to the creek. Yup !
    JULIE

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Not to mention that bank earnings are starting to come out for the quarter. I think BAC reports on the 18th.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good decision to leave. Trading is a high stress zero error tolerance activity. The last thing you want in your life is drama, plus it’s a huge waste of time and energy. Trolls don’t last long here as they get insta-banned.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    San Diego is one of my favorite cities in CA. Shame Mrs. Evil doesn’t like it as much as me – I have tried to convince her to move to S.D. in the past but she prefers L.A. – foolish woman!!

  • Yoda

    let me guess. Too many hot chicks in SD? 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III