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Snorefest Wednesday Rub Down
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Snorefest Wednesday Rub Down

by The MoleNovember 11, 2009

I have to run to an appointment, so only the chart for you rats as a snapshot of today’s tape:

Program Trading Update:

geronimo/ES: +0.5
resident.evil/ES: -2.5

Cheers!

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Randy Harris

    ain't it amazing how far up things can go on fumes.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    should I smile?

  • Randy Harris

    I suppose that depends on how you are positioned.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, the worse thing is there is no signal of participation, and it climbed, nobody dares shorting this dead cat… dead cats bounce at least 1384 ft (see my record) if nobody shorts SPX can do the same… 1384 points on “dead cat bounce TA”

  • centerline

    Regular Mexican standoff here. No one willing to budge. Tape justs melts up on the dollar action.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    update dead cat bounce oracle 1144 and then drop to 654

  • http://www.bigmovingstock.com bigmovingstock

    Possibly a glimmer of hope on the bear side is the vix making a higher high and a possible higher low on the daily http://bit.ly/3QdmuC A stretch, maybe – but worth noting

  • derekste

    Although we put in a new intraday high on SPY, the failure to follow through at close indicates to me that we have put in our double top and can roll down the hill again.

    I'm not asking for much… Just would like to see the week end below ~107.5 to keep the weekly chart direction downward (may even chart this when I'm home)

  • mtvernon

    EWI a laugher tonight. STU quickly becoming STFU. I go there for a count right? Instead they moon me!

  • amokta

    many things are affected by the moon gravitational field, including tidal waves, so why not the stockmarket (it may affect the water inside the brains of investors)

  • Huggybear

    Hochberg's SPX trendline target for today wasn't even right. I had it deadnuts on tradestation at 1106.27, which we came within 0.90 of hitting. I'm about <this> close to canceling my sub with them.

  • sirgiyan

    Not to mention that today VIX closed THE LAST remaining gap at 22. All other gaps are to the upside

  • Me_XMan

    It's all about the USD. Dollar goes down, market goes up. Dollar does up, market goes down.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    on the other hand I'm no longer alone on the gold 1300 corner

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Svs5xhfLj

    dan reviewed his count and now all it takes is a 5 extension (if 5=3 then 1400+)

  • rosocecasita

    Until it doesn't, what will happen when the market & the dollar go down together?

  • Me_XMan

    That would be like closing USA shop. Ain't gonna happen.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW with gold at 1400 we could get a double bottom and make “true” 450 S&P

    Then take gold back to 800 as s&p climbs slowly to 900 and 4=iv

    then a slow final movement bringing gold to 7 k and grinding s&p back to 666… et voila Dow at 1 ounce, s&p at 0.1, just what the doctor ordered

    Hope springs eternal

  • rosocecasita

    Heheheh, I love it when people say something can't happen!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    like equities and gold decoupling?

  • rosocecasita

    exactly! We can have Hyperinflation & deflation at the same time:

    Gold rising & Equities dropping at the same time.

    Kind of like the velocity of money, you've got the macro view, where it's crawled to stand still, and the micro view, where it's increased to an even faster fast: A-la HFT.

  • Huggybear

    Seems like the market is almost trading tick for tick with the Euro

  • rosocecasita

    and USD/JPY provide the “Surprise Spikes”

  • kryxtal

    Inverse h&s on vix maybe?

  • Huggybear

    Am I the only one who noticed LIESman's intentional deception today when he held up a quarter and a basketball and said that the quarter represented the number of unemployed as opposed to the basketball representing the employed based on the CIRCUMFERENCE ratio of the 2 being 10 to 1? Those CNBS clowns are really pushing it now.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well I'm the one who has been asking for spx:gold somewhere close to 0.1 by 2017 end

    it would go well with s&p between 450 and 600 and gold somewhere between 5 and 7 k

  • rosocecasita

    Aye, I'm still amazed at moles call for gold to fall to 650 being right.

    The big one to me, is that gold broke out over 1k, and has held on the weekly above that for 6 weeks now, while the DOW was able to claim 1 weekly close above 10k.

  • rosocecasita

    500/5000 ~= .01, sounds about right though.

  • davosdax

    I was waiting for Gold to pullback below $1,000 before going long again. It looks like 2009 is the year without any pullbacks.

  • amokta

    my expert vix analysis: looking over the last 20 year (well thats as far a yahoo goes!) it suggests a pattern that it peaked in nov 2008, and based on previous trend, it will slowly fall to about 12 in 6 years time. Hence, stocks will be rising for next 6 years ? why fight the tape?

  • yudhisthira

    I'm going to go with the new moon top thing next week.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    It just strikes me as really dumb – a ridiculously poor analogy. Now along the lines of what you're implying, his use of U-3 does seem disingenuous – designed to minimize the negative – as does his use of disparate elements with proportions far out of scale to the analogy. If we were to stick with the basketball, I suggest a better analogy would be to bleed 22% (SGS Alternative) of the air out of the and see how well it still bounces…..

  • fa_q

    …or since the VIX has only been around since 1993 it would be tough to get 20 years of data.

    “Expert VIX analysis…” That has to be the funniest post I've read in a long time. I hope to god you're kidding and/or you only have a paper trading account.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it could fall to 650 (that's why I didn't go long gold) depended on the counts

    iv was at 650 then 4 should go there, but with 4 at 900… everything changes. gold climbs to 1400, then what? drops and revisites 900, 50% retrace, then, up you go, this was only a wave 1? wave 1 did 1200 and 400%? imagine wave 3 climbing from 900 wiyh a vengeance and there's always 5…. yes 5 to 8k is possible and solves all our “crazy targets” on equities

  • orth

    The vix rising with stocks was unusual, and showe m that there were a lot of puts being bought as hedges against an untrustworthy rising market. The vix measures the volataility which happens when traders rush in to buy puts.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Like me hooking-up with a lingerie model????

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Are they now saying it's tracing out a triple zig zag?

  • rosocecasita

    (I don't think it will fall to 650, it did fall there, 700 is close enough for me, I guess mole still doesn't see that he call it spot on, but it's now the inflation part of the trade.)

    But if gold is going to 5K, then we can expect a 500% increase in commodity prices and more like 500k, and raging hyperinflation that probably far exceeds that, i don't like that scenario. Hyperinflation destroys nations.

  • amokta

    my 'reliable' yahoo chart starts at 1990
    im just learning things right now !

  • mtvernon

    Nope, they have no count apparently

  • rosocecasita

    then say: I'm learning things right now, anyone who claims to be an Expert is not.

  • http://www.thevolatilitysoma.blogspot.com GS751

    Being a bear in this market is like wondering what somebody is one sitting on when playing hold em.. You leave in the remote possibilities and just stick to the odds.. I know its more complicated but that is the simplest analogy I can think of…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    The worst thing that they did was come on the tv and say a top was in. I wish they would wait till Primary 3 is already in play. It was a kiss of death when they came on CNBC…..

  • Huggybear

    Just to be perfectly clear: When looking at a basketball vs. a quarter, the viewer will naturally compare the AREA relationship of the two, not the diameter (or circumference). If the diameter of a quarter is indeed 1/10th that of a basketball, its area would be 1/100th that of the cross sectional area of a basketball. I must conclude therefore that he intentionally used those objects to make the unemployment problem appear better than what it actually is.

  • amokta

    any significance to recent rise in volume on FAZ etf – dumb retail investors getting it wrong, or something more sinister brewing?

  • de3600

    Girlfriend opens an account at scottrader buys some ORPN for 25 cents in March like a 1000 shares myself I am laughing foolish penny stock whos the fool now she forgot about it and tonight looked and its trading at over 8 dollars

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Dollar was up with the market, it is retesting support while the equity markets test resistance at prior intermediate highs http://bit.ly/16roYk

  • TomOfTheNorth

    I understood you – the scale was so out of whack though I think it was just stupid – nothing subtle (nor likely nefarious) about the comparison. Just dumb. A little more slippery IMO was his use of U-3. The U-3 calculation IS deceiving and he knows it. The basketball vs quarter? Just shows me he's a moron….

    But thanks for raising it – I can't stomach watching CNBC anymore (haven't in months) so it's good to get these updates on how low they've fallen……

  • PRSGuitars

    ” If we were to stick with the basketball, I suggest a better analogy would be to bleed 22% (SGS Alternative) of the air out of the ball and see how well it still bounces…..”

    +10

  • TomOfTheNorth

    you are too kind, sir!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BAD CALL

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVXO#chart

    and for the VIX (VXO) reconstructed FA_Q (couldn't resist)

    http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/10/vxo-char

    P.S. but is count is CRAZY, at most he could say that we had i of 3 in 2000, iii of 3 in 2007, ii of 3 (with an expanded flat with a crazy B beyond any acceptability in the fall of 2008 and 5 waves down to finish near 12 but in a couple of months)

    ALT count , iv of 3 was 18 something , we're going there and then have v of 3 in full force, 50 points probably or even 80 … and still 4 and 5 missing

  • wex

    What's she buying this week?

  • amokta

    just check that there were not some reverse splits, even so, looks pretty good

  • fa_q

    Not sure the point. VIX was invented in '93. They may have gone back and reconstructed the VIX, but it was invented in '93. Regardless, it's a fool's errand to try to do long term counts on the VIX. The formula has been changed several times – it's nothing near Whaley's original invent.

    The advent of the 2x and 3x inverses has altered the VIX drastically. In fact, there was just a symposium last week of ridiculously smart guys for trying to understand today's VIX. Guys with ridiculous IQs.

    Long story short, you're not going to get much out of long term wave counts. If you're trying to newly learn the VIX, stick with short term time frames, support, resistance, etc. Even as an EW guy, I believe EW on the VIX is slightly above worthless.

    Regardless, the VIX isn't going to go down for 6 straight years.

  • Scoops

    Couple of interesting notes.

    Topstep says the SPX has never been up 9 days in a row?

    Cobra says today was an All Up Day with pain to follow.

    I guess we rally tomorrow. DOW 30K baby!

  • Scoops

    Get an avatar already!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I see what was tried… aborting (v) of iii of 3… if it worked they'd have one final push to VIX 50-60 and that's it…. I think I know what Neely meant when he mentioned 666 was the low… nevertheless you are forgetting that the market would have trouble calling that a low… so… (i) of iii had a [v] failure because of the speed involved, but as soon as vix corrected 5 of C ending in a megaphone OCTOBER 20… you're scr”$%”d on you analysis, we did i down and ii up since…. prepare for 80+ points of VIX rise as (iii) of iii of 3 takes over

    p.s. thanks for your post, it led me right to data I needed

  • clutchshorter

    I'm fairly new to EW so I apologize for a dumb question. If we are at or near the close of Wave 2 and begin Wave 3, Wave 3 would ideally be the longest wave in the cycle and should take us under Mar Lows. Possible?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Yes, it was invented at duke's in 93, yes the change existed but was in 2003, doesn't change much things because movements before it fell on a zone where it didn't hurt too much .

    yes I did short term VIX and that's why I said 5 of c ended recently with a megaphone

    EWT can be aplicable to VIX (it reflects human purchases, valuations, fears) however it's transposition to s&p values may pose some problems (e.g. the 98 crash led to higher vix than the 2000 one)

  • TransworldDepravity

    Take a look at my IYR chart and tell me that little gap doesn't scare you. It is also right at the 61.8% retrace. Significant. Needs to fail right here right now.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NDM4ZWRiMTIt

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it might if it was wave 3 and not v of 3… for me the jury is out on that one

    for a 5 it often goes only to a double bottom and might even fail (specialy if highly inflated environment)

  • http://tradingtrophies.blogspot.com/ the99th

    Wave 3s are usually hard and fast, and indeed, this implies new lows.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    not to overlook the level of skew recently introduced by quant “volatility funds”

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    “Am I the only one who noticed LIESman's intentional deception today”
    Yes – you were
    the rest of the world notices it every time his lips are moving

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    wait, the more I look the more things make sense, we're right at the trend line, either it jumps right away or it's pinned down, wait for a channel touch (do an exponential fit on gold since 2000 and see what I mean)

  • Macrawn

    Thanks for posting your trend system yesterday Berk. When I get some time I'm going to do some back testing on it. I like the creative way you are using BBs never thought to stretch them out to 200 bars like that. I bet commodity stocks will work best with it.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you might, and I wouldn't be the least bit jealous

    http://www.diamonduk.info/images/products/malel

  • molecool

    Yeah, I have been posting that chart for weeks now.

    He's a bit slow but he does catch on eventually…. – LOL :-)

  • molecool

    I watched some interesting patterns on that today.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I started thinking of several things in paralel…. the 2003 VIX change might have been to show a decline that didn't exist, so from 2000 to 2007 maybe there was never a sub 20 proper vix…. tinfoils available at a discount, black choppers available on demand

    the 98 crisis never had a reprieve, just a crazy wave 4 with higher prices and smashed gold… hummm

    so 98 to 2002 1 down, 2002 to 2005 wave 2, 2005-2006 i of 3, 2006 2007 ii of 3, 2007 to march 2008 (i) of iii of 3, summer 2008 (ii) of iii of 3, fall and winter 2008-2009 (iii) of iii of 3, since then (iv) of iii of 3. Missing (v) of iii of 3, iv of 3, 4 and 5

    ALT COUNT the 2007 spring 2008 was 3 but id didn't extend, so 5 is extending , and this is ii of 5

  • charles_smith

    Divergences can run a long time but these have been running since August. It's like everyone expects the market to rise because it has for 9 months…. the rubber band has stretched to the limit and perhaps the probabilities are finally favoring a reversal by next Tuesday if not before. OK, it's just instinct…

  • TomOfTheNorth

    The page isn't loading for me but, judging by the url, that's probably a good thing as I suspect I may find the image somewhat disturbing……

    BTW, where I come from, male underwear is the antonym of lingerie – I'm not being judgemental mind you – live & let live I say…..so if you're a guy who's into wearing that sort of thing, more power to you…

  • weasel_whisperer

    Here's one person's analysis of the dollar / spx correlation:

    “As the dollar continues to plunge, the amount of goods that consumers can buy goes down for a given quantity of dollars. The only way consumers can continue to buy the same or more is if their wages keep up with the decline. Wages have been FALLING because we don’t make anything to mention but derivative products anymore, and overseas workers still earn less and thus arbitrage wages downward. Thus, the conclusion is that as the dollar continues to plummet, at some point stocks will plummet because earnings will not be able to keep up. Do not buy into the hype that a falling dollar is good for exports and that corporations will do well – that’s only true to a point and only for a few companies who do the majority of their business overseas. It is BUNK for the market as a whole.”

    http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/11/dollar

  • http://twitter.com/faisal3391 FAISAL

    what can trigger P3, there has to be some kind of crisis, here are three possibilities , which possibility is likely, I hope it the first crisis.

    1.Stock crisis – stock collapse, treasuries and dollar rally

    2.Currency crisis – stock continue to rally, dollar break support, treasuries collapse, flight from dollar intensifies

    3.Country crisis- stocks and bonds collapse, interest rate soar destroying u.s economy – u.s defaults its debt.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    This may have been mentioned before so apologies if redundant …Rolfe Winkler “Dow in Gold' chart:

    http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/files/20

  • Sleepynaptime

    I agree with your reasoning and your instincts – but my instincts have been wrong for at least two months now.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ROTFLOL

    in consideration to the blog I had chosen something SFW, but I prefer boxers

    p.s. where I come from I don't find guys disturbing, It's just something I realy have no interest in…. you better find a shrink (after a barber of course)

    p.p.s. the barber was a joke, I wear a 1 inch beard

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Perhaps my imagination ran a little wild but, given the url, I speculated it was an image of sausage in a sling…….and perhaps disturbing was too strong a word……no….disturbing was the right word…..hehehe

  • C's & 3's

    Selling causes selling. That is how it will start. It will precede the news.

  • http://www.anomalousmaterial.com CastorTroy

    I am getting cautious as well, net neutral at this point but obviously won't fight the trend if we take out today's high decisively. Watch for unemployment claims in the morning as always. Good Dr. Brett also starting to see divergences
    http://tinyurl.com/yb6dodg

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and if 1929 was a 3 and this is an expanding triangle ending the rise then higher highs and lower lows, C 1980 did 0.175, E 20** should do lower

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    now, it's my time to wonder about your wardrobe….

  • TomOfTheNorth

    I just thought it was interesting -personally I couldn't derive much else out of it. I'm still stuck thinking SPX should be at 550……

  • TomOfTheNorth

    now it's my turn to say “Get a grip” Hamster.

    LOL

  • 4everGrateful

    Jing is not working for me right now otherwise I would put up some pretty charts for you. So here goes long hand.

    1929-1930 – After the initial drop the bear market rally made it to the 50% fib line (290.75) and broke it slightly by pushing up to 297.30.

    2007-2009 – After the 2007/2008 drop and into the current bear market rally, the 50% fib line (10,334.02) was broke and pushed up to 10,341.97.

    What is common between the two? They both broke the 50% fib line by appx. 7 points (6.55 & 7.95). Could this be a sign like the 666 spx low? If the similarities I have studied between the two markets continues as they have so far……..this is the top.

    I know, I know, everything now is wishful thinking, but we shall have to wait and see!

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Mish posting on state budget woes: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009

    What happens to state revenues when CRE blews up? I haven't seen any projections of the impact to tax receipts.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I WON'T !

    (dream on)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    260 more like it

  • rosocecasita

    negatives

  • rosocecasita

    and it all depends on if this is a 4th or 2nd in the grand scheme of things.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not realy, 260 would be some months down the road, right now 450 would be fine

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Hard to believe zerohedge is only 10 months old – they're rolling out a new concept in contributor content…sounds interesting,

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/introducing-darpa

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    iv of 3 or (iv) of iii of 3

    can't make up my mind but iv of 3 most likely

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Ther percentages are big enough difference though…2.4% overthrow in 1930 versus 0.08% overthrow….either way though….your comparison is good, since even a 2.4% overthrow is “nothing” especially in a supercycle mania manipulation (SMM)

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77
  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    The real unemployment is like 1 out of 6. Wish I could find that gov stat site again….

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Tom, your stock went way up with that quip!!! its perfect.

  • Macrawn

    I vote for number 3. Just keep in mind though if you are loading up shorts in anticipation for it, that the time table is probably around 3-5 years from now. The Fed can hold this up easily for that long, maybe longer. The market will likely go quite a bit higher than it is before we finally fall and get crushed by all the garbage.

  • 4everGrateful

    I used 2.3% so using that for today's market would put the Dow at 10,572. I almost put that in there but decided not to, good catch!

  • TomOfTheNorth

    I do what I can steveo… and sometimes I get lucky!

  • charles_smith

    and I've been wrong for 4 or more. But as Mole sorta suggested, mAybe this time it is (finally) different…

  • charles_smith

    The discussion of 1930 is interesting–many look at 1938 as the model. AMBG posted a fractal of the present and 1938 that based on time from the bottom is at the top:
    http://www.ambgtrading.com/

  • TomOfTheNorth

    The similarities in price action are interesting – but (and I'm going to get spanked by the moderator for using the 'F' word) Fundamentals suggest to me that we're in an earlier phase of the cycle.

    BTW, I'm a fan oftwominds if you're the author…

  • yudhisthira

    thanks. nice charts

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    naughty, naughty, but yes fundamentals are not forbiden, I share your opinion that year after year of insignificant dividend (and worse, results) within a framework of rangebound prices will lead to a new wave down

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Lots of times being lucky is better than being good. But being good and lucky….and humble. Don't go fishing, go catching. Expect to win, deserve to win.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    fast learner

  • TomOfTheNorth
  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    stumbled upon http://www.businessinsider.com/
    question – are they really brain dead or just pretend to be for greater redneck entertainment impact?
    And – I though Blodget was suppose to be in prison for a while?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    it is always different …sooner or later
    then.. it is the same again…
    (1113) 1120 level hold the truth (+/-)
    then it'll be different…and then…it'll be the same
    and may be even pee3 or just a pee and 1,2,3
    if we lucky iii would oy oy oy
    so much talk so little trading…
    one more Black Russian Nonsense no ice

  • http://kkmoney.blogspot.com kkmoney

    Not sure if anyone has posted this, but could be an extremely important and beautiful technical formation on the $NDX: 10 yr trendline being tested: http://screencast.com/t/OGFmYzhiY

    Zoomed in, perfect 61.8% retracement: http://screencast.com/t/YzBmY2Jk

    Note that we are at the same price level where that white trendline, which goes back 20 yrs was broken.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    in that case, I'm a seller! LOL. Nice chart kk, thanks for contributing it.

    +1

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Some FET (Financial Entertainment Television) Spokesperson compared Current Unemployment to Employment as a Basketball to a Quarter. An absurd comparison, showing how deep the rabbit hole runs. This is not just about being optimistic, they are trying to deceive. A more fair comparison would be a Tennis Ball to a Ping Pong Ball.

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

    Check out this graphical comparison, overlayed on a stock chart 1929 to 1940

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/size-do

  • Publius Federali

    Great chart, but you are forgetting one very important thing, GDP grew at 3.5% last quarter and Bernanke told you that the recession is over and things are getting better. What are you ignorant or deaf? The fact that you could put up an incredible chart that says a thousand words in one picture is meaningless compared to your defiance of Uncle Ben. How dare you. I think I might report you to the White House. Are they still paying people to snitch on their neighbors?

    But in all seriousness, thanks for the great chart. It is very frustrating staying a bear with all that is going on but looking at charts like this makes it impossible to change my read on it.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Me I'm a stupid hamster, I like my nasdaq in REAL money (i.e. gold) and my lines paralel (channels?)

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-7755_4AFB9882.html

    see? I've got a stupid problem turning into a bull, don't know where I'd find an aditionall 2.000 pounds…

  • Tronacate

    Russell looks like it is weakening…….no big run up in the futures so far

  • NYFITRD

    haha

  • bananaben

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109

    Hang in there bears. They can run but they can't hide!

  • MariAroma

    “oscar” trading long for Thursday NQZ9 Dec Nasdaq E-mini.
    http://www.livewithoscar.com/modules.php?name=C
    “Stops Are In . . . Emotions Are Out !!!”

  • bobthehorse

    The Vix has been around a bit longer – since 1986. There has been a methodology change since then so the original VIX is now the old VIX so that might be why you are making this mistake. Oh well – at least you aren't poking fun at anyone else.

  • MariAroma

    Swing trader remains bullish for several reasons —
    http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/339/

  • bobthehorse

    My plan for today:

    Likely do nothing. As discussed y'day, I am flat delta and long some Dec 1050 puts. Overall I expect this market to continue to work higher on a 6 month view as the economy continues to accelerate.

    Short-term, equities are vulnerable. There are value areas below the market, there are some stresses in bonds and my contacts tell me that some of the neural network models are close to big turning points in FX. If the market breaks some near supports, we could get a decent move lower, hence my 1050 puts.

    But a key component for a big move lower is a small move lower. A lot of people on this board seem to miss that point. Until I see evidence that we are in a corrective mode, I will not take my delta short – it is a raging bull market. I see 1087 on ESZ9 as first support but really, 1060 is what we need to see go.

    If we are truly back in a bear market there is going to be so much opportunity to get short, it will be like shooting fish in a barrel. Start hoarding ammo.

  • fa_q

    Interesting. Since it wasn't introduced until 1993 and everything else was reconstructed so that might be why you are making the mistake. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX

    Oh well, at least you weren't trying to be a cocksucking douchebag.

    When we talk about the VXO we'll let you know since that was based on the OEX and not the SPX. And, by the way, the VXO was also introduced in 1993 with pricing back to 1986.

  • bobthehorse

    Look, you've tried to be a smart-ass and failed. There's no need to start being rude to people you don't know. The facts are you tried to rubbish someone for saying he had 20 years of data for the Vix. Whether that data is calculated historically or not, there is data going back to 1986.

    If the best contribution you can make is to start trying to make pedantic points based on Wikipedia pages, perhaps you should find other blogs.

  • fa_q

    You're right. I've contributed nothing to this blog. Other than the fact I've contributed over 27,000 ES points to this blog since May and you've contributed nothing.

    My post was in jest – trying to be a VIX expert by looking at a chart is hilarious. I think the poster knew I was kidding. You, you can go fuck yourself. But you're right, I'll be happy to take my profits somewhere else. I've wasted enough time trying to help others when this is the response I get. No wonder Mole gets sick of running this site having to deal with you ingracious pieces of shit. The hilarious part is that you don't even know what pedantic means.

    See you all later. Good luck.

  • fa_q

    I'm done with this blog. I appreciate everything Mole has done – I honestly don't know how he tolerates some of the pieces of shit that comment on this site. He is a bigger man than me….or he has more patience. Good luck to everyone.

  • tradejane

    Erm.

    Just wanted to say that I appreciate both of your view points and I'd hate to see any of you guys go.

    Thanks.

  • moxiong

    bob, my worry (l'm sure many bears feel the same) is that a “confirmed” down move could turn out to be a headfake and we end up shorting at the lows. how can you be sure that P3 is indeed under way? given the last few months, I would not trust any indicators, technical or otherwise.

  • gsavli

    Uf, uf. For real? Because I think, you're one of few, who really has something to say. Well, I will surely miss your witty posts with a touch of sarcasm (just the way I like it) here, if you go.

  • spicestory

    Look at the hate we're breeding. Look at the fear we're feeding. I don't need your civil war (of words .. i bid) What's so civil about war anyway? Axel Rose

  • bobthehorse

    Well from my perspective, I can't abide rudeness. Too many people on the internet use anonymity to discard any social niceties and start hurling abuse as per the below. He's right, he doesn't have to be here. Neither do I, Mole, Berk, CorporalCarrot, or anyone who contributes.

    To launch into that level of vitriol suggests the profits are strongly negative. Or he has the thinnest skin in history.

  • tradejane

    Imo, the best thing that could happen to bears today (scalpers and swingers alike) would be a green opening. The DAX had one and the banks are dragging it down as we speak. I'm waiting for a clean drop below 5650 to exhale though.

  • gsavli

    I like a touch of rudeness , sarcasm and cynism. It's the best type of humor IMO, otherwise, communication is so sterile…

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Turning into a lovely overnight

  • bobthehorse

    There will be something. Equities didn't fall immediately when the sub-prime issue came along, 1987 was not a total shock – the market had been trading poorly for a while already. The big dotcom collapse didn't happen straight from the high, we messed around for most of 2000. My point to people on this blog is stop looking for the big one – there is really no sign of it right now.

    If I had to guess what will spark it, I would say commercial real estate but the market won't start panicking until we see banks being forced to take marks on their balance sheets. Realistically, the BIG BIG one will be a sovereign currency crisis, could be Ireland or Greece, maybe Lativa. Possibly even the UK though that would be a big one. But you will get a signal from bond yields, or failed bond auctions or sovereign CDS. It won't blind-side you if you have your eyes open.

  • bobthehorse

    I like that too – but vitriol is unpleasant.

  • tradejane

    Maybe it's because I've ties with both England and the US but I can appreciate both sides for their contributions while being keenly aware of my mother's picture across the room when talking with some of them. :)

  • gsavli

    Futures and USD are there, where we want them. Although correaltion between USD and equities was very loose yesterday.

  • ultra

    Morning all.

    Got myself a little excited yesterday. Again. Only made one FX trade in the morning though and got stopped out, as I said here.

    Can't help it though, as I see so many of the pieces coming together (finally) right now.

    Elliott count – we are one (hopefully non-extending) fifth wave away from finishing this wave. Which should be the last one (yea, I know..)

    Touched major fib retracements in Dow, SPX.

    Filled SPY gap.

    Joe8888's Gann 50/50, his monthly channel, all the rest of his great studies…

    And, best of all, we tagged SSC's Great Channel yesterday. This is the one I like the best – this confirms everything else for me.

    To quote that great international statesman (snort), Anthony Charles Lyndon Blair, the pieces are in flux.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Wow, I'm slightly hungover this morning…..went for a pint which turned into 6, and I can't take it like I used to.

    I see its handbags at 50 paces this morning, which is a crying shame.

    FAQ, I think you were being overly touchy, and descended into “language” very quickly and unnecessarily. The tone of this blog that is promoted by Mole is one of “tough-love” so I don't think bobs post warranted your response. You need a thick skin around here.

    Like Jane would hate to see either of you leave as both are good contributors.

    I like to think that a lot of the touchiness and frustration people are exhibiting at the moment are signs of bearish exhaustion, hopefully those of you who need P3 to start will get their wish soon.

  • MariAroma

    Monthly E-letter from Dr. Alexander Elder, bullish on GOLD — “The weekly chart reminds us to be patient. Holding a long position is hard, which is why most people grab a quick buck and do not get anywhere near the full-size gain available from a trend. You can see on this weekly chart that when gold gets going, it tends to overshoot its upper channel line by about $40. That line stands at $1,118 today and is rising by about $10 a week.

    “In summary, the uptrend in gold appears healthy. It makes sense to use pullbacks to value on the daily charts for adding to long positions, while holding off major profit-taking until prices have rallied about their channel on the weekly charts.” (Can't find an internet link.)

  • CorporalCarrot

    Bob

    Being based in Ireland, would appreciate the London (unofficial) view on our country. I personally am lucky in that I never bought the boom, have zero debt, own my house and am pretty well positioned for crisis. But I can't see a near term catalyst for a currency crisis (probably means its just around the corner!!!!)

  • ultra

    contacts tell me that some of the neural network models are close to big turning points in FX

    This sounds interesting – do you have (or can you point in the direction of) more details?

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol it just happened a few minutes ago, big impulsive move in the USD :)

  • ultra

    hehehe – I really should get up earlier

    then again – naw… fk it

  • ultra

    Morning CD, you injecting the Peet's in your neck these days or what?

  • PRSGuitars

    EUR hitting lower 133 of recent (3day long channel — might reverse here, beware, however DX IS breaking out of yesterdays range)

    DX channel madness — now there's small solid good green candle forming for us past the one there…… http://www.screencast.com/t/OTI0YTc3MjA

    EUR melting down as we speak… past 133 as I type this. If ES doesn't hold its recent channel support + weekly vwap @ 1089, this puppy is likely toast.

    I'm short two NQ from around 1780 with 1 long ES hedging my core put position (bought a handful of Dec 109s for 2.70 today among the rest, mostly Mar 87-97 strikes). Will wait for the jobs number and then decide how to play the futures I've got.

  • tradejane

    Actually, it's very easy to hold a long position in AU/AG especially if you started your physical positions in 2003.

    The key word here being “physical.” I've tried holding GLD/miners too but it made me too nervous. 😀

  • bobthehorse

    Some of the big investment banks run these models – they tend to be proprietary but I have someone who slips me some info every now and again. Personally, I don't follow them but I have been sniffing around the FX markets as a lot of macro funds have large short vega positions in some of the EMEA FX like the HUF. If there is going to be technical trigger for a risk-off unwind, it may come from there.

    The AUDJPY daily turn date is this Friday. There are weekly turn dates on Thursday as well in most currencies. A lot of macro funds are up 20% + for the year – it won't take much for them to hunker down.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Short SPX and EUR futures, so gets me up every couple of hours.
    …off for more naptime

  • bobthehorse

    You must be the only Irish person who didn't! I have family in a village just north of Dublin so am there every now and again. My scientific conclusion on Ireland is that it is fucked. The Euro has been a total disaster and now they cannot devalue the currency. There is going to be a crisis for the EU because Ireland cannot afford to pay its debts yet the EU cannot allow a member state to default. I don't know what will happen but it will not be pretty.

  • tradejane

    Thanks for the update PRS.

    DAX just broke the 5650 a while ago so you can all go back to bed. 😉 First stop is 5.632 and second stop the 5.596 area.

  • ultra

    Three horse race – you are forgetting Spain and Italy.

  • ultra

    Morning PRS – well we are already (just) under the start of my triangle at SPY 109.64, so that count is out.

    Maybe this is it then? Could still be in w4 of course – this is the problem with Elliott at the small scale (bad workman blames tool) is that you can work it whatever way you need to.

    In summary, we could still get a new high today, but it's really not necessary. I will take the drop from here if that's what's on offer.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Bob

    I am one of those people who was just right before my time. I was preaching doom back in 2003. I didn't expect imminent collapse, but I felt we were on a path where if we didn't turn soon, we wouldn't be able to turn from the iceberg in time. I see a lot of similarities with this current market, where people simply cannot see whats going to bring it down. And if you try to warn people about the coming disaster, you get laughed at.

    We are totally fucked, and the big problem is that we are probably the most indecisive nation on earth. 3 years into the crisis (we topped sept 06), and we are still discussing what the best course of action should be. The country is descending into a very ugly divide, where the powerful public sector unions are more interested in seeing vengeance than in actually sorting the problem out.

    I know that people criticise Obama and everyone else but at least they are doing SOMETHING. It probably won't work in the end, but at least they can say they tried.

  • elliott_surfs

    Please don't go, and if you do, let us at least know where you're going =) Your insight, as well as you other rat bastids, is so appreciated. I wish I could provide something more constructive, but I spend all of my time studying your posts to provide anything hehe

  • CorporalCarrot

    Haha, I read over on the slope that EWI have moved back into the P2 is still on camp, P3 hasn't started yet. This is probably true, but wouldn't it be fricking hilarious (considering the contrarian stance that the market will fall when the last, most resolute bear has given up the ghost), if yesterday actually was the top, and it was all downhill from here? I'm not counting on this or trading on it btw, it would just be a delicious irony :)

  • Bankster

    Don't go! You're one of the most level-headed and calm traders around and you have shared a wealth of information that is second to none. Learned a lot from you. Don't go!

  • ultra

    Yep they are now pointing towards the lunar synodic cycle as a possible turn date. Another classic STU-turn.

    Steveo77 posted a link down the page where you can see what they are pointing to – http://astrocycle.net/Astrology.php?DIV=Astro

  • bobthehorse

    Property is one of those things that being early is not a problem on. I was too early as well but I knew that being leveraged would be a total disaster as and when the turn came.

  • MariAroma

    Institutional selling down = stock market up: “As a courtesy to our Free Members, we are posting our Institutional Selling chart today. The chart below goes back to this past July and there been 8 up or down changes in the Institutional Selling Trend since then.

    “Take a look at the chart below and see how the NYA (New York Stock Exchange) shifts its direction in accordance to what Institutional Investors are doing relative to Selling. Institutional Selling action is a market direction indicator that every investor should have on their side.”
    http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketU

  • PRSGuitars

    Still urging caution here as the EUR hasn't broken its 133 down of the channel yet. Showing signs of a bounce. If /es breaks down it'll just be a flag we're in now (not a bottoming/reversal) but if theres a bounce, it's here and now. 1089 and under, i think, is a trip to 1082 — sub 1080 and we're going towards 1000ish.

  • ultra

    Interesting – here's the free stockcharts ripoff version – note the overall uptrend and also the little divergence at the recent low…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYDNV&p=D&yr=

  • ultra

    Here's the up-volume one – actually increased now vis-a-vis the last peak, but still less than the previous two.

    Would have preferred if this was a straight 4-in-a-row decline tbh.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUPV&p=D&yr=

  • tradejane

    Here are some reasons why I also think equities are vulnerable here too:

    DAX is either moving with the SPX or ahead of it, what happened?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ODNhZjFhY

    Same here, SPX's twin brother the Nikkei is showing an ugly divergence.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/YmE0MTM3ZjE

    And my all time favorite BS-indicator-stock is having some trouble repeating the June/July fractal:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/YTNiOWE4Yj

    And of course the XLF/SPX comparisons of now and 2007:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/N2NkODg2M2Yt
    http://www.screencast.com/t/NDIwZTJjNm

    Ok, now $dji will rally to 15000, economy will prosper and everyone can laugh themselves silly about this little bearish exercise in futility. 😀

    Disclaimer: This is just my opinion, this is no reflection of my trading strategy which believes that if you think they are out to get you, they probably are.

  • MariAroma

    Ok, Thanks, ultra.

  • tradejane

    Thanks again, EUR and Commerzbank bottomed at almost exactly 10.20 CET – about 10 minutes later the DAX and /ES and went into overdrive. That's exactly the reason why I watch those two so closely.

  • amokta

    Today is the day, when all the answers will be revealed?
    Bobthehorse – good that you are bringing some balance to the otherwise too bearish bias on here!

  • bobthehorse

    Oh I am bearish as well long-term. But I am not a bull or a bear, I'm a pig.

  • ultra

    What I am expecting to see today in €UR/US$ – http://screencast.com/t/YjAwNWIyYTQ

  • gsavli

    Hardly, fa_q mentioned yesterday, that thursday a week before opex is one of the most volatile (as in up and down, not just down) days, and more or less a doji day.

  • tradejane

    Thanks, those look like nice reloading points. :)

  • CorporalCarrot

    So a pretty big reversal this morning by the looks of it. Any news or all about the dollar??

  • tradejane

    Just the big boys being cute, imo. Either that or someone got the weekly US-unemployment numbers early.

    The action in banks is not confirming this.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Looks like you might get your wish Jane (up modestly early).

    I know people like to criticise xtrends but Attila posted a fascinating chart there; the SPX in USD terms is looking like putting in a major long term H&S pattern. I can't link it for some reason but I recreated it on stockcharts;

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$USD&p=M&

  • tradejane

    I certainly hope so, a opening run up to the 10320 area would mesh well with my favorite plan for the day. If the action earlier this morning is any indication then short scalpers will need to be on their toes as usual but imo, bears who are in it for a swing (like fa_q) will be ok.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Who tagged 1.4920 as a critical pivot this morning? Battle taking place there and we printed 1.4917, but on the 5 minute chart the Euro looks like breaking down, its fairly orderly so far, I wonder where it needs to go to start a snowball effect?

  • ultra

    Not me. I have 1.49005 as R2 on the daily – we are about there now, would be a good place for a bounce…

    Here's where I see us on the hourly – http://screencast.com/t/NWI1YTAw

  • amokta

    Royal bank of scotland, then bell-weather of the stock market is down today
    maybe this is the 'signal' we have been looking for?

  • NYFITRD

    The market hasnt gone anywhere in 3 months. They started shorting at 1030…70 SPX points is nothing when you think about the risk reward here. The corporate bond market is unch since sept, euro is unch, gold is the only thing making major new highs….which is scary.

  • gmak

    Pre-Market warm up

    SPX put a pin through BIG WHITE (trend line from the high in Oct 2007, touched by May 2008), yesterday, but closed below. Volume continues to decline even as SPX puts in a higher high. Today is the Thursday of the week before OPEX. Isn’t the legend that it is the opposite of OPEX week performance? If so, and if one expects bullish shenanigans next week then…..

    This is a good point to go short SPX using ES, with a clearly defined risk point above yesterday’s ES HOD at 1103.25. There is an R1 pivot at ES=1102.75 which also helps define the point at which a short could be considered “wrong”. Now, I’m not sure if the current price level of ES = 1091ish could be considered a good entry place for intra-day (more longer term play, I think), as it is quite a distance (more than 10 points) from the inter-day stop that would be above ES = 1103.

    There is a nice neutral pivot at 1097 that was the roof on the overnight attempt to ramp the ES back up. So for an intra-day short, I would look for the pop that should come (based on on my short term TA indicators) off of the pivot at 1090.75. Initial play should be around 1093.50 which is some TD resistance from several sources including a quadruple top since 2AM EST. The stop would go above the pivot at 1097 (ES) = risking about 3.5 – 5.5 points to make 9 – 10 points with a target on the lowest pivot.

    ES Pivots:
    R2: 1109 = would take SPX back above BIG WHITE trend line and suggest going long. SPX possible turning points are at the upper Bollinger (1115); the 50% FIB (1121.44); and the upper channel line (could be anywhere in 1136 – 1148; I need to refine these estimates, clearly).
    R1: 1102.75 = remember the HOD is 1103.25 from yesterday.
    Neutral: 1097 = good spot to put a stop above if going short around 1093ish on ES
    S1: 1090.75 = acting as a floor, but ES has gone below it twice now. The first time might be an accident but if ES goes down twice on you…. There is a TD support level at 1089.50 where their TA expects buyers to come in.
    S2: 1085ish = This is where I would expect a good intra-day short to wind up. After all, today is the Thursday for the week before OPEX, and it is supposed to be the opposite of the OPEX week (according to market lore – has anyone seen actual data that confirms this? Hmmmm?)

    Equity
    Asia was red; Europe is Red. DAX is up near where the right shoulder might see a top on its H&S pattern (I don’t really believe in them since everything can fit into it). DAX saw some weakness off of the open, when the Industrial production numbers (MoM) came in weaker than expected. However, the DAX bounced sharply and put in an HOD 2.5 hours later at around 5890. The sectors doing well are Telecom, Basic Materials, Insurance within Financials, and Travel and Leisure within Retail. This is a mixed bag. Basic Materials might be a play on commodities. Telecom? You got me.

    FX
    EUR put in it’s right shoulder overnight and then fell to the S2 pivot. EUR now has a double top with a valley in between the two peaks that spans from the Oct 21 – 23 time frame on one end, and the Nov 11th on the other end. Apparently there are sizable stops below 1.4900 My guess would be that they would be sellers locking in profits from 1.465.

    EUR pivots:
    R2: 1.5091 = above the high from Oct 26 (1.5063)
    R1: 1.5039 = Recent resistance that started the current leg down
    Neutral: 1.4996 = Tried to support an overnight retrace, but died at 3AM EST
    S1: 1.4944 = Supported the EUR for about 3 hours, but at 7am (NY traders wake up?) the EUR fell through and put a long pin down below the 62% FIB (from the Oct 26th high to the Nov 1st low (1.4683) that failed to reach S2 before snapping back up.
    S2: EUR grazed this about a half hour ago. Right now S1 is support, but there are all those stops below 1.4900 that might draw some big elephant’s attention. A lot of stops were swept already between S1 and S2, so it would take a concerted effort or some negative data to push EUR back down to 1.490 where someone could do a stop-sweep.

    NEWS
    European industrial production was well below expectations, although still positive MoM
    Tiny Tim is a clown that no one believes or respects
    The return to leveraging off of derivatives to make money is making a comeback for financial institutions.
    Japan CDS may be the straw that breaks the credit markets this time around.
    M&A seems to be increasing as all that liquidity sloshing around tries to find a home. It’s 2003 – 2007 all over again.

    Data
    MBA mortgage applications were 3.2% down from 8.2% previously
    8:30
    Jobless data Initial exp = 510K vs 512K previous
    Continuing claims exp = 5,700K vs 5,749K previous
    14:00
    Monthly budget statement = where US taxpayers get the next thrust up.

    I’m taking tomorrow off, so depending on where I find myself in the AM I may not post. All you superstitious traders can take this to mean that the market will see the bright white light.

    Cheers.

  • gmak

    Stops were swept below that level. It happens to be the 62% FIB (see my big post) and is now acting as a floor. There are apparently sizeable selling stops below 1.490, but it will take confidence in the USD to get back down there, now.

  • ultra
  • gmak

    GREAT CHART!!

  • gmak

    I almost forgot. At 13:00 EST there is an auction of $16bln 30 year bonds. Now that will be one of those defining moments, perhaps.

  • ultra

    Yeah it is a nice one. Hats off to Atilla…

  • gmak

    Everything seems weaker against the USD. I wonder if this is Tiny Tim's way of trying to sucker (I mean entice) FCBs into saving his 30 year auction?

  • Schwerepunkt

    That will be a huge inflection. And we get to watch Santelli and Liesman scratch each others eyes out too!

  • Guest

    Dear Sir, I really appreciate your contribution to this site. I have been reading your posts since the beginning. I followed you from Xtrends to this site. In fact I believe your posts have been an invaluable source of information for many people. I understand your frustration with these types of ingrate losers, but I hope you will continue to post. If not, then I wish you well in your future endeavours. Thank you.

  • Schwerepunkt

    A note of caution to all the gold lovers out there. Old timers in the oil patch have a saying about oil: “high prices solve high prices.”

    I think despite all the histrionics about gold being “money,” a value hedge and a safe haven, etc., this truism applies to gold as it does to all commodities.

  • CorporalCarrot

    RBS is 84% owned by the British Government. As a stock, it means nothing any more as a gauge, IMO.

  • amokta

    i, know, just clutching at straws. still, banks have been weak

  • centerline

    +1

  • Schwerepunkt

    Why the wobble after the initial claims number?

  • centerline

    Fear of the day. We close at 1090-1091 range. (back to fetal position in corner of room).

  • Schwerepunkt

    Why can't we all just get along?

    I stole that line from a punching bag.

    I like and appreciate both bob and fa_q, and think this blog would be a poorer place without one or both of them.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Unemployment claims 502k. Better than expected. Dollar and equities little changed.

    Bob if I read this correctly in this fucked up topsy-turvy world, good news is bad because good news implies an early end to free money rising interest rates stronger dollar yadda yadda yadda. In this case its neither really bad enough to imply an even longer period of recession which would cause equities to rally, but its not really enough of an improvement to imply a quicker ending of QE, so we keep the status quo?

    Am I learning??????? :D:D:D

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I'm assuming because that number isn't really all that important (briefing.com rates it as a C+ in terms of importance). There was a group that bought because the numbers were better than expected and then everyone who knows it doesn't matter sold right into that.

  • Schwerepunkt

    On most blogs, I get beaten up if I ascribe any importance at all to any news release, based on the view that the market already “knows all.” Bunch of crap in my book. Where I will agree is that more important than the actual information contained in the news, is the market's reaction because that's how we make/lose money.

  • centerline

    I don't buy the H&S either… BUT, within 10 years time-frame we are talking about the difference between peak earnings and the beginning of retirement for many baby-boomers. Despite the H&S here, I have theorized that baby boomers who recently got slaughtered can't handle a P3 event. They are bound to pull the plug sooner or later en mass. Some of course won't, some will catch the falling knife, but most don't have faith (or time for faith) in the market anymore and will be gone in a heartbeat when we turn again and break 1020.

  • CorporalCarrot

    As a chilling sign of what will happen when all the bullshit stimulus is withdrawn…………

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-purchase-

    “CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — The volume of mortgage applications filed to purchase homes last week hit the lowest level in nearly nine years, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday.

    Applications for loans to buy homes fell a seasonally adjusted 11.7% in the week ended Nov. 6 from with the previous week — bringing volumes to their lowest since December 2000. The Washington-based MBA's weekly survey covers more than half of all applications filed for U.S. retail residential mortgages.

    Applications to refinance existing home loans, on the other hand, rose 11.3% on a week-to-week basis, the MBA said. “

  • gmak

    If you took my suggestion to go short ES around 1093.50ish, I would suggest taking a quick scalp. I'm seeing higher lows on ES and the 1090.75 pivot is holding.

  • gmak

    The money has to go somewhere from the boomers. It will likely be invested indirectly as they buy annuities. I would suspect that the liquidation impact on the market would be over a number of years.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Yeah, I wasn't implying that news doesn't matter – the market obviously moves when numbers like GDP, etc. come out. Just for this case, the weekly jobless claims number is fairly volatile, and we just passed a $24 billion bill last week to extend unemployment benefits so everything can't be that rosy… in fact, once that bill goes into effect I would expect jobless claims to increase since more people will be eligible.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I wasn't directing my comments so much at you. There are traders who denigrate “news” as nothing but a distraction. My view is important news ALWAYS elicits significant price reaction(s) that needs to be considered at the very least in the context of stops, if not to actually enter long or short. A tight stop around a news release is basically asking to be hit.

  • Me_XMan

    Ya they'll buy much less risker assets. The boom time is over IMO.

  • bobthehorse

    At the moment yes, equities want news to be good but not too good as this means we are getting better and they won't end stimulus. Very good news is bad as it means end of stimulus. Bad news is bad as we have run of bullets.

  • centerline

    I agree – but with the idea that most news is BS or too late. However, I believe it still does matter – but often in a different timeframe than one normal expects for relevant information. That is, some news can actually have relatively quick action on what the market is doing (GDP, unemployment #'s, etc.). Some are lagging of course (the usual). Some though are predictors – especially those, I think, that affect forward looking public sentiment (as this market, like our fiat currency, is based on some degree of faith, and it is critical to keep the smoke screen up in order to keep fleecing the middle-class). This goes hand-hand that the media is just a tool that is used to pull the wool over the eyes of the average person. Hence, the news isn't news, it is propaganda… kind of like that movie from a long time ago (80's I think) where you have to put on special sunglasses to see that aliens were all around us – and the billboards actually said “obey” and “procreate” and “consumer”, etc.

    Now… how to make this information useful for our own evil purposes…. I have yet to figure that out!

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    fa_q, thank you for all your posts at ES and hope you will continue.

  • bobthehorse

    Very kind. The blogosphere is a strange place and I am new to it but I don't see why hiding behind an avatar gives you the right to be rude to people. I don't personally care being fairly thick-skinned but I am certainly not shy about giving it back.

  • clutchshorter

    Morning Rats. Even small trading firms managing $20-$50 million in assets have taken a hit in their accounts. My friend told me his firm suffered a million dollar loss after going in FAZ on a big position when the unemployment #s came out last week. All the traders are complaining in his firm and other firms are literally speechless. This tells us me that all of us pretty much on the same page in terms of this uptrend losing steam. But what it doesnt tell me is who is manipulating this upwards (BIGGER/LARGER hedge funds, banks?)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    still don't know what happened (I do sleep) but a couple of hours ago you were hitting someone HARD on the historical VIX issue, so calm down and get a tougher skin and get your FA_Q back here.

    We like having you around

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    anyone short AMD just woke up

  • centerline

    Asset destruction continues. Sad. It amazes me that we don't count home values as part of the deflationary calculations. If we did, it would be very painfully clear that we are caught in a serious deflationary spiral. Inflation is in the future, but the current enemy it is not. This is why, IMO, the fed continues to scramble to devalue the dollar.

  • momac

    Crap, I am. what the heck happened?

  • gmak

    Tuesday was a red bar. The close was lower than Monday. So, I guess it depends on how you define an up day. Based on a close above the previous day's close, we have restarted the count and we are at day 2 on Thursday.

  • gmak

    LoL

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    The worst thing about the AMD blast-up is we'll have to hear Cramer taking credit

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yes, you hit the nail on the button. How to profit by it? One has to look at news cynically and naively at the same time to make money. You have to know that to some extent the news has been minimized or maximized for some purpose, but you can't toss it out as completely irrelevant. It's like this BS rally. I agree it was a BS rally, but it is a rally nonetheless and I largely missed it because of my unchecked cynicism. Or, maybe I wasn't cynical enough! I should have said, this is BS, but the powers that be want a rally and I'll be damned if I'm not going to participate!

    Some people wait for the initial reaction to news, and trade against it. More often than not, they're right short term. But when you do this, you can get into some serious circular logic. Maybe all these difficulties have led some to just categorically denigrate news, because it severely complicates short-term trading. Like you, I'm still trying to figure out how to approach the news cycle.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Did they just release a non-shitty processor? no…..*yawn* wake me they go out of business….

  • tradejane

    Well, well, well. I'm sorry to hear I'm not the only one who's donated money to the FAZ cause. I used to turn up my nose at SRS, back then. Too slow. For some reason I like slow moving stocks much better now. 😀

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    1.25B settlement w intc will do it.
    …tough spot, sorry

  • clutchshorter

    Has anyone testing Berk's BB system? Any feedback/results? It looks promising

  • tradejane

    That looks…exciting. Do they work that way in reverse too?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    sit down and ill tell you a story

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes it is, and now that I saw the posts I agree with your stance. You just slightly rubbed FA_Q's error and got back some “c”#k sucking douche” “fu”$#””#ing” comments

    I don't particularly agree with many of your posts, but you didn't cross any civility laws

    And you didn't brag of “ES points given” nor left on being taken out on a discussion.

    So thank you, that's the spirit

    p.s. FA_Q had a bad moment but if/when he comes back please let this subject fall, everyone has some bad days

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, that last paragraph was below the belt, you had been a gentleman so far 😉

  • momac

    First BNI and now AMD. I think I should stick with the indexes.

  • tradejane

    I tried out a very simple variation of that in two stocks (ASIA and MO) and it went really well. Don't want to go into much detail until I see this working over a longer period.

    The only thing I can tell you is that I had to change the system every time to suit the personality of the stock in question.

  • bobthehorse

    I won't hold it against him. He probably just sprained his vagina.

    That's a joke.

    Actually I was just trying to stick up for amokta as I felt he was being unreasonably ridiculed. Certainly wasn't looking for a rumble though an online trade-off has a certain appeal.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    FA_Q there was ONE, just one comment that was below the belt, and you were out of order on your choice of terms, and though you might have doubts about the validity of VIX stuff (I reach completely diferent counts and timeframes) the fact is he was right on the existence of the data and Bob just took the time to rubb it in a bit.

    come on, you are often at the edge of unpolitness, take this one as a man and smile.

    I'm sure you've got what it takes to do it so don't prove me wrong 😉

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Back to nature for you this wkend. Get outdoors and excercize – clear the head.

    Make this a positive after you recover.
    …best luck

  • bobthehorse

    I will also take the opportunity to apologise for winding you up. No serious offence meant.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    have you heard of “CNBC noise canceling headphones”?
    Switch is right there, see – that “power button”

  • CorporalCarrot

    Awwww…I love it when people kiss and make up.

  • Duuuuuude

    For most commodities that would be true, but as it applies to gold I respectfully disagree. The reason I disagree is because most commodities are consumable, and have substitutes. For example, if corn becomes priced too high, you begin feeding wheat. When you run out of reasonably priced feeds, you sell the livestock. This happened this year.

    Gold has very few commercial applications. When it goes up, it actually stimulates demand because money flows sense an opportunity. If the world economies improve, demand for commodities will remain strong. If the world economies worsen, there will be an even larger rush into gold because governments will be printing so much money.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    aren't we all? if we could we'd ride every profitable wave in wathever sense it came….

    oink oink

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Never!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Oh, sorry, forgot of indispensable Trish indicator…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Jim Rogers has good write ups on Gold
    the bottom line – gold is just another commodity…with its own cycles

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    USDJPY looks like breaking out 2hr chart

  • Duuuuuude

    For most commodities that would be true, but as it applies to gold I respectfully disagree. The reason I disagree is because most commodities are consumable, and have substitutes. For example, if corn becomes priced too high, you begin feeding wheat. When you run out of reasonably priced feeds, you sell the livestock. This happened this year.

    Gold has very few commercial applications. When it goes up, it actually stimulates demand because money flows sense an opportunity. If the world economies improve, demand for commodities will remain strong. If the world economies worsen, there will be an even larger rush into gold because governments will be printing so much money.

  • weasel_whisperer

    He'll tell us it's a clear sign that the economy is recovering.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Several money makers there, just that she is golden.

    this meathead right now for ex

  • MariAroma

    Yes, cat, that's his site, but can't find the monthly E-letter there, can you?

  • Schwerepunkt

    I know the arguments. And it does have some validity as a financial instrument. But, it is also “consumed,” although it doesn't get eliminated. Indians buy gold as jewelry and as a wealth store/statement, but when the price is high, they tend to cut back. I wish the “cash-for-gold” guys were advertising in India! Actually, though, gold jewelry in traditional countries is bought and sold purely by weight plus a very small markup. I'll ask you this: why did gold drop last fall as the financial crisis was just getting heated up?

    I don't want to overstate my case. I didn't mean to say gold is like any other commodity, I recognize it is “special.” But it's not immune to the laws of supply and demand and the price elasticity issues.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    A slightly contrary opinion Duuuuuude – re: most commodities, there is price elasticity due to substitution but, when ag supplies tighten, they tend to tighten (to varying degrees) across all ags & raise all prices.

    Silver would be the obvious gold substitute for non-industrial uses – and may provide some elasticity to gold prices…..

  • CorporalCarrot

    Anyone else thinking that after the initial weakness is negated by the dip-buyers that we melt-up today to try to recapture yesterdays' highs?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    nope. sorry..

  • bobthehorse

    I am not trading right now – I think the risk-reward has gone from the long side but until we break 1087 ESZ9, nothing to do. I am just sitting on my hands with my 1050 dec puts getting into online fights with other blog readers.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yup, but today there is also competition from the bond pit for money.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I understand, I first thought Amokta's comment was far fetched, then checked and found the data, then did my count (different conclusions from Amokta, but what the hell) and presented everyhing to fa_q

    fa_q already knew he had jumped the gun

    p.s. I'm also thick skinned but understood long ago that being civil makes your point even stonger if you'e right

    p.p.s you were quite civil for some of the abuse you took

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol go and shill for your fund or something. Any bets on the world cup qualifiers this weekend?

    We are all crapping ourselves about the French Game.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    when did you wind me up?

  • bobthehorse

    sorry – that was meant to be addressed to fa_q.

    Keep that apology in your back pocket. I'll wind you up later.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    couldn't agree more, that's why I still see 5000+ in the cards

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I'm looking for FAS to come back down to around the 30 EMA before going up again.

  • bobthehorse

    that abuse was nothing compared to some of the people I have worked with.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Morning Bob- Why the long face?

    HAHAHAHAHA (that joke NEVER gets old!!!)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    last fall (september) was CBs trying to pin gold down and equities up… ended nicely, hope they try again

    see my nasdq:gold chart from 8 or 9 hours ago

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    under normal conditions yesw, when there is a good recession GOLD/silver ratio goes ape-shit up

  • Schwerepunkt

    BTW, for the sake of full disclosure, I am talking my book to some extent! I'm a yank living in Canada and most of my money is in . . . USD. I should have changed it all to CAD in early March, but didn't. ;-(( Hence, I really don't want to see gold at $5K.

  • Darkthirty

    Is the CME live quote site down, or is it my system?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if you try that you'll be sitting on my furry boots

    LOL

  • bobthehorse

    I haven't really thought about the World Cup since I don't know when.

    Oh yes I do. When England qualified easily.

  • Cypherd

    INTC halted until a minute ago.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    know how that feels….

  • Duuuuuude

    Of course, at some point supply and demand will put an end to it, but it will be at a much higher level than most of us are willing to believe. Nobody ever thought we would see oil last summer near $150, or corn near $8, both which trade today at half those levels. Why would it not then be feasible to see gold at $2000 or higher? If world wide panic takes place, I think you could see that happen in an instant. I don't think we have seen panic happen yet.

  • centerline

    Sounds like you are in UK. I have family in London – but given the dollar destruction, I may never see them again!

  • CorporalCarrot

    Here come the dip buyers…..right on time :)

  • tradejane

    Shhh, you'll scare them away!

  • bobthehorse

    Compared to Sterling, the dollar is in good shape

  • TomOfTheNorth

    I'll bring the chips….

  • CorporalCarrot

    Well I did predict it earlier!!!!!!!!!!! Up up and away. Nothing can stop this market. :)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if you're lucky you might get higher usd and lower gold (it's currently at the trend line) but on a long timefreme I see usd doing a fall stronger than 1980… might end up 0.3 on the euro

  • ultra

    Ok – looks like we discount the out of hours prices – SPY triangle apparently lives after all – http://screencast.com/t/MTljZDRjYzQt

    not sure how this fits into the overall wave structure, because a Z should be abc, non? In this case I can count complete a la kemal_1's count yesterday.

    Watch closely.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    today they're giving all they can to break a new high on nasdaq

  • clutchshorter

    Wow, this tape disgusts me. Day after day after day after day, rally rally rally rally

  • tradejane

    Oh, oh, time for Plan B, as the DAX just made a rocket launch! Careful, bears.

  • Guest

    SPX won’t go below 1090. The market is accepting prices above 1090 is worrisome for bears. Remember back at 990 all that support that refuse to break down? They used that as a launch point to shoot much higher. Do you think we will go to 1200? Lots of talk about it.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I'm hoping for a repeat of last year with a bout of asset price deflation, a renewed credit crunch, a stock market crash, de-leveraging USD denominated debt and flight to safety, all of which should result in a higher USD. What will gold do THIS TIME if that happens? I don't know. I'm hoping for 1.25 or higher on CAD:USD.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's a rigged game, this morning pumps, but there is fight going on, someone's selling the rise hard

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    SPX 1300, then we might have a small correction

  • ultra

    Ok, think I got it – http://screencast.com/t/MDY3NGU1NTg

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sorry, I don't follow CAD

  • ultra

    This would be a *fantastic* time for a failed fifth

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol thats hilarious!!!!!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    selling showing some strengh on tbe price tape… hummm

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, did you see this chart I posted some hours ago? (for what it's worth)

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-7755_4AFB9882.html

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Euro testing lod here. commod's down; should be the larger force given the lack of strong mkt breadth; we'll see

  • tradejane

    The selling was expected and exactly what I counted on, but I didn't count on the DAX making a new high for the day. That normally doesn't bode well.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Euro brk now

  • gsavli

    I saw, you closed your SKF position at a loss. Quite bullish, eh? Almost no corelation whatsoever with USD, when it's gaining strength.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we'll see, there are some major resitences in play right now, at least in real terms

  • gsavli

    I saw, you closed your SKF position at a loss. Quite bullish, eh? Almost no corelation whatsoever with USD, when it's gaining strength.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    That is only on Market Guru; it replaced the GS short; which I did cover

  • Me_XMan

    UUP rocking…

  • Anonymous

    Plenty of air down below when USD is waking up.

  • clutchshorter

    OMG, it just went negative. This is like Christmas. (sarcasm)

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    I'm on pns and needles like anyone else here. but still holding majority of my short lone so far

  • gregn

    How many accounts do you manage?

  • gsavli

    same here (and elsewhere, as you noted). I think, it could break anytime, due to stronger USD, but then again, this does look very bullish.

  • ultra

    I did, I did. Very nice – the evidence for the new secular bull market just keeps on piling up around our ears…

  • Me_XMan

    Bulls are running out of steam.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    never more than 10

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    11 if you count Mktguru :)

  • TomOfTheNorth

    You DO like lots of lines…….

    j/k Hamster, nice chart. The price action looks nicely contained. Does it indicate to you that stocks are going down, gold is going up, a combination of the two or an outcome I haven't yet contemplated?

  • clutchshorter

    Do you need to take Series 7, Series 63 exam to open up your own small business for trading? Just a thought.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    what scares me is that if this line fails we have to find some very old lines to hold this sucker down

  • gregn

    That's very impressive, I struggle to manage just one.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Euro is an ankle weight at moment.

    Hopefully some cement applying and a toss over board to come

  • Cypherd

    If you plan on charging a fee in order to manage other people's money, yes.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Some great contrary indicators when you take those classes.
    …worth the effort alone

  • tradejane

    Agreed. The good news is, all major indications are still weak and pointing to a serious correction at some point, but imo for very short-term trading we'll need some real selling to negate that new day high.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I would consider a mix of price correction (keep the bull ilusion barely) and gold to 1300 1400

    I thought diferently and made the bad call of just shorting equities

    p.s. those extra lines came into play and should come into play again

  • gsavli

    It better come soon since carry trade still works when USD goes down. It would have to be institutional sellers, but they're nowhere to be seen…

  • dollar

    bght more sds and qid, any other bears out there?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    I focus on one strategy mainly and I have some help.
    A second strategy trades less often

  • gregn

    Does your mentor still trade? If so, what is his view on the current market?

  • Me_XMan

    Bought some more SDS and UUP yesterday.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    He is my largest account

  • gregn

    Ironic. 😉

  • Me_XMan

    The leverage play on the dollar is huge for SPX. Watch for major correction on the dollar.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    He is not trading. He wants to be long until there is a clear break and he is not very optimistic for coming years

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nasdaq is still contained by the october high, major divergence…

  • centerline

    Just came back. What the F was that? Pretty nasty taking out the 1100. I am sure that a mess of both buy and sell orders were sitting there.

  • gregn

    What is your threshold for that? SPX 1000?

  • gsavli

    On the dollar??? I thought USD just made a correction and now it's equities' turn?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    are you kidding? just us hamsters (but grandpa was a grizly)

  • Me_XMan

    If today dollar gain holds, SPX will be red tomorrow.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Covered Euro short here for now just now.
    …will like to go in again today if no real recovery

  • Me_XMan

    I see SPX correction is coming tomorrow.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    If it looks like it will close above 1101 i have to adjust

  • gregn

    I am talking about your mentor's account. What is your threshold for jumping out of his long position? Where is the 'clear break'?

  • TransworldDepravity

    Nasdaq outperforming and UUP up big. 22.50 looks like a nice support level if it can hold it. Happy my AAPL calls are keeping me in the green…so far.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW where is our beloved and fearless leader?

    MOLE! wake up and come watch the paint dry

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    He is net-short at moment 😉

    …but it is a light line and it gives me a better opp at buying the pullback. Then if mkt doesn't catch a bid, I let go longs and hold short, whereas if mkt catches a bid I have the longs and let go the short; something like that.

    I cannot ride short and lose money though, or I am going to be in hot water.

    Dont lose money, right

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just courious, can anyone indulge a crazy hamster and do an s&p or a nasdaq NET of the gaps? Don't know if any software could do it easily enough

    I have a very interesting theory on that one…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    could be, maybe, the last wave up? looking at a 2 hr charts…LOOKS like 5 wave up..so MAYBE we get at least a correction..or MAYBE more???

  • ultra

    Well, it's either (i),(ii) of v up or v,(i),(ii) down – anyone's guess right here…

  • clutchshorter

    Wow UUP is going up. Market isn't really reacting much.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Powerful move in the DXY folks, yet equities seem totally unfazed. Is there a delayed reaction here or what?

  • ultra

    Bounced off support dating back to start of year – http://screencast.com/t/ZjA4MTk1Y2Y

    If we go through that…

  • tradejane

    Well, as long as Commerzbank and DB remain weak we can pretend it's building a right shoulder.

  • gregn

    Looks like /DX is going to retest that oh-so-important 76 again.

  • angrywetcat

    You need the 65 to charge fee-based.

  • TransworldDepravity

    IYR looking weak here on a 3-5 day chart. Possible double top with a large divergence on MACD.

  • gregn

    Not sure if anyone else posted a chart on this, but there is a big time positive volume divergence in /DX: http://screencast.com/t/ZDkyYTliY

  • Duuuuuude

    I would love to see a break above the 50 day MA.
    http://screencast.com/t/NTY1MGQ3

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't make me salivate

  • gregn

    You and me both, brother.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    tail and dog are in a wagging contest and considering divorce…

    kidding, Mole showed several charts where you see equities lag FX

  • gmak

    Correlation is not causation. I just got back from a meeting and it looks like the stops in EUR below 1.490 got swept. I doubt that it was part of the linked liquidity pools that would lead SPX to drop as well.

  • tradejane

    Yes, it looks promising. All we need now is the DAX to close below 5650 in 25 minutes and we'll be set. (Joking, sort of.)

  • ultra

    I am imagining that Mole is holed up in the evil mountain lair right now playing some suitable music for the occasion…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FXoyr_FyFw&feat

  • gmak

    I don't understand why this is called a divergence. Volume rising = DXY rising. Dxy falling = volume falling.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I'm imagining that our glorious leader decided to have a normal evening yesterday and wake up at proper hours for the west coast.

    Might as well, he's holding his shorts so today is a non event, either way

  • Bearinator

    Oil bubble may be bursting soon.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's called “i don't believe the fall”

    don't sell a quiet market after a fall

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sure hope so, my ERYs are killing me

  • bobthehorse

    Today has been dull. Made worse by the fact that someone drew a flush on the river in the late stages of a partypoker tourny while I was holding kings and queens and all in.

    Strategy remains sit on flat delta with dec 1050's whilst this whippy topping phase exhausts everyone else. 1087 breaking would be the first sign we are going to make money. 1060 is the medium-term support.

  • Duuuuuude

    It seems to me that for such a large rally in the dollar today, stocks are blowing it off. There seems to be some sort of disconnect today.

  • Tronacate

    Today is actually setting up pretty well……. move down…..metals down…..stronger dollar…….
    letting the yuan float with the hot Chinese economy could result in just the opposite of assumed….the dollar could strengthen alot…

  • ultra

    A chart to gladden the heart

    http://screencast.com/t/NTFjMzlkMTIt

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's getting interesting, LOD, the timing is right… might get a trend day down

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Tronacate

    Shorted CROX earlier

  • molecool

    Funny you should say that – I just posted about it.

  • molecool

    I'm on the case boys – just finished my first post.

  • Duuuuuude

    As the say…… Great minds think alike! :)

  • gmak

    <thumbsup>

    ________________________________

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    good to see you back, I'll check it out ASAP

    p.s. we've got another “touchy leave” FA_Q

  • Scoops

    An AUD is gold spx dollar and bonds closing green if I remember correctly. It signaled confusion and a sense of indirection according to cobra. What usually follows is a down day.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, when you count, take into account nasdaq did NOT make a new high. I know EWT does not allow 2's beyond 1 but… we are no longer in kansas

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks, it's a classic phrase

    and … thanks for the mrning updates, I don't say it enough but I know you know they are highly appraised

  • Me_XMan

    SPX 1070 on the docket…

  • Schwerepunkt

    Why can't we all just get along?

    I stole that line from a punching bag.

    I like and appreciate both bob and fa_q, and think this blog would be a poorer place without one or both of them.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Unemployment claims 502k. Better than expected. Dollar and equities little changed.

    Bob if I read this correctly in this fucked up topsy-turvy world, good news is bad because good news implies an early end to free money rising interest rates stronger dollar yadda yadda yadda. In this case its neither really bad enough to imply an even longer period of recession which would cause equities to rally, but its not really enough of an improvement to imply a quicker ending of QE, so we keep the status quo?

    Am I learning??????? :D:D:D

  • CorporalCarrot

    As a chilling sign of what will happen when all the bullshit stimulus is withdrawn…………

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-purchase-

    “CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — The volume of mortgage applications filed to purchase homes last week hit the lowest level in nearly nine years, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday.

    Applications for loans to buy homes fell a seasonally adjusted 11.7% in the week ended Nov. 6 from with the previous week — bringing volumes to their lowest since December 2000. The Washington-based MBA's weekly survey covers more than half of all applications filed for U.S. retail residential mortgages.

    Applications to refinance existing home loans, on the other hand, rose 11.3% on a week-to-week basis, the MBA said. “

  • gmak

    If you took my suggestion to go short ES around 1093.50ish, I would suggest taking a quick scalp. I'm seeing higher lows on ES and the 1090.75 pivot is holding.

  • bobthehorse

    At the moment yes, equities want news to be good but not too good as this means we are getting better and they won't end stimulus. Very good news is bad as it means end of stimulus. Bad news is bad as we have run of bullets.

  • ClutchShorter

    Morning Rats. Even small trading firms managing $20-$50 million in assets have taken a hit in their accounts. My friend told me his firm suffered a million dollar loss after going in FAZ on a big position when the unemployment #s came out last week. All the traders are complaining in his firm and other firms are literally speechless. This tells us me that all of us pretty much on the same page in terms of this uptrend losing steam. But what it doesnt tell me is who is manipulating this upwards (BIGGER/LARGER hedge funds, banks?)

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    anyone short AMD just woke up
    …blood flowing now – ready to meet the new day

  • centerline

    Asset destruction continues. Sad. It amazes me that we don't count home values as part of the deflationary calculations. If we did, it would be very painfully clear that we are caught in a serious deflationary spiral. Inflation is in the future, but the current enemy it is not. This is why, IMO, the fed continues to scramble to devalue the dollar.

  • momac

    Crap, I am. what the heck happened?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    The worst thing about the AMD blast-up is we'll have to hear Cramer taking credit

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Did they just release a non-shitty processor? no…..*yawn* wake me they go out of business….

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Well, well, well. I'm sorry to hear I'm not the only one who's donated money to the FAZ cause. I used to turn up my nose at SRS, back then. Too slow. For some reason I like slow moving stocks much better now. 😀

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    1.25B settlement w intc will do it.
    …tough spot, sorry

  • ClutchShorter

    Has anyone testing Berk's BB system? Any feedback/results? It looks promising

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    That looks…exciting. Do they work that way in reverse too?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    sit down and ill tell you a story

  • momac

    First BNI and now AMD. I think I should stick with the indexes.

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    I tried out a very simple variation of that in two stocks (ASIA and MO) and it went really well. Don't want to go into much detail until I see this working over a longer period.

    The only thing I can tell you is that I had to change the system every time to suit the personality of the stock in question.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Back to nature for you this wkend. Get outdoors and excercize – clear the head.

    Make this a positive after you recover.
    …best luck

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    have you heard of “CNBC noise canceling headphones”?
    Switch is right there, see – that “power button”

  • CorporalCarrot

    Awwww…I love it when people kiss and make up.

  • Duuuuuude

    Re-posted

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Never!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Oh, sorry, forgot of indispensable Trish indicator…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Jim Rogers has good write ups on Gold
    the bottom line – gold is just another commodity…with its own cycles

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    USDJPY looks like breaking out 2hr chart

  • weasel_whisperer

    He'll tell us it's a clear sign that the economy is recovering.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Several money makers there, just that she is golden.

    this meathead right now for ex

  • Schwerepunkt

    I know the arguments. And it does have some validity as a financial instrument. But, it is also “consumed,” although it doesn't get eliminated. Indians buy gold as jewelry and as a wealth store/statement, but when the price is high, they tend to cut back. I wish the “cash-for-gold” guys were advertising in India! Actually, though, gold jewelry in traditional countries is bought and sold purely by weight plus a very small markup. I'll ask you this: why did gold drop last fall as the financial crisis was just getting heated up?

    I don't want to overstate my case. I didn't mean to say gold is like any other commodity, I recognize it is “special.” But it's not immune to the laws of supply and demand and the price elasticity issues.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    A slightly contrary opinion Duuuuuude – re: most commodities, there is price elasticity due to substitution but, when ag supplies tighten, they tend to tighten (to varying degrees) across all ags & raise all prices.

    Silver would be the obvious gold substitute for non-industrial uses – and may provide some elasticity to gold prices…..

  • CorporalCarrot

    Anyone else thinking that after the initial weakness is negated by the dip-buyers that we melt-up today to try to recapture yesterdays' highs?

  • bobthehorse

    I am not trading right now – I think the risk-reward has gone from the long side but until we break 1087 ESZ9, nothing to do. I am just sitting on my hands with my 1050 dec puts getting into online fights with other blog readers.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yup, but today there is also competition from the bond pit for money.

    Edit: and the 30-year auction is today too.

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol go and shill for your fund or something. Any bets on the world cup qualifiers this weekend?

    We are all crapping ourselves about the French Game.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    couldn't agree more, that's why I still see 5000+ in the cards

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I'm looking for FAS to come back down to around the 30 EMA before going up again.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    last fall (september) was CBs trying to pin gold down and equities up… ended nicely, hope they try again

    see my nasdq:gold chart from 8 or 9 hours ago

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    under normal conditions yesw, when there is a good recession GOLD/silver ratio goes ape-shit up

  • Schwerepunkt

    BTW, for the sake of full disclosure, I am talking my book to some extent! I'm a yank living in Canada and most of my money is in . . . USD. I should have changed it all to CAD in early March, but didn't. ;-(( Hence, I really don't want to see gold at $5K.

  • Darkthirty

    Is the CME live quote site down, or is it my system?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if you try that you'll be sitting on my furry boots

    LOL

  • bobthehorse

    I haven't really thought about the World Cup since I don't know when.

    Oh yes I do. When England qualified easily.

  • Cypherd

    INTC halted until a minute ago.

  • Duuuuuude

    Of course, at some point supply and demand will put an end to it, but it will be at a much higher level than most of us are willing to believe. Nobody ever thought we would see oil last summer near $150, or corn near $8, both which trade today at half those levels. Why would it not then be feasible to see gold at $2000 or higher? If world wide panic takes place, I think you could see that happen in an instant. I don't think we have seen panic happen yet.

  • centerline

    Sounds like you are in UK. I have family in London – but given the dollar destruction, I may never see them again!

  • CorporalCarrot

    Here come the dip buyers…..right on time :)

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Shhh, you'll scare them away!

  • bobthehorse

    Compared to Sterling, the dollar is in good shape

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    I'll bring the chips….

  • CorporalCarrot

    Well I did predict it earlier!!!!!!!!!!! Up up and away. Nothing can stop this market. :)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if you're lucky you might get higher usd and lower gold (it's currently at the trend line) but on a long timefreme I see usd doing a fall stronger than 1980… might end up 0.3 on the euro

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Ok – looks like we discount the out of hours prices – SPY triangle apparently lives after all – http://screencast.com/t/MTljZDRjYzQt

    not sure how this fits into the overall wave structure, because a Z should be abc, non? In this case I can count complete a la kemal_1's count yesterday.

    Watch closely.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    today they're giving all they can to break a new high on nasdaq

  • ClutchShorter

    Wow, this tape disgusts me. Day after day after day after day, rally rally rally rally

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Oh, oh, time for Plan B, as the DAX just made a rocket launch! Careful, bears.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I'm hoping for a repeat of last year with a bout of asset price deflation, a renewed credit crunch, a stock market crash, de-leveraging USD denominated debt and flight to safety, all of which should result in a higher USD. What will gold do THIS TIME if that happens? I don't know. I'm hoping for 1.25 or higher on CAD:USD.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's a rigged game, this morning pumps, but there is fight going on, someone's selling the rise hard

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    SPX 1300, then we might have a small correction

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Ok, think I got it – http://screencast.com/t/MDY3NGU1NTg

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sorry, I don't follow CAD

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    This would be a *fantastic* time for a failed fifth

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol thats hilarious!!!!!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    selling showing some strengh on tbe price tape… hummm

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, did you see this chart I posted some hours ago? (for what it's worth)

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-7755_4AFB9882.html

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Euro testing lod here. commod's down; should be the larger force given the lack of strong mkt breadth; we'll see

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    The selling was expected and exactly what I counted on, but I didn't count on the DAX making a new high for the day. That normally doesn't bode well.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Euro brk now

  • gsavli
  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we'll see, there are some major resitences in play right now, at least in real terms

  • gsavli

    I saw, you closed your SKF position at a loss. Quite bullish, eh? Almost no corelation whatsoever with USD, when it's gaining strength.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    That is only on Market Guru; it replaced the GS short; which I did cover

  • Me_XMan

    UUP rocking…

  • ClutchShorter

    OMG, it just went negative. This is like Christmas. (sarcasm)

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    I'm on pins and needles like anyone else here. but still holding majority of my short lone so far

  • gregn

    How many accounts do you manage?

  • gsavli

    same here (and elsewhere, as you noted). I think, it could break anytime, due to stronger USD, but then again, this does look very bullish.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    I did, I did. Very nice – the evidence for the new secular bull market just keeps on piling up around our ears…

  • Me_XMan

    Bulls are running out of steam.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    never more than 10

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    11 if you count Mktguru :)

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    You DO like lots of lines…….

    j/k Hamster, nice chart. The price action looks nicely contained. Does it indicate to you that stocks are going down, gold is going up, a combination of the two or an outcome I haven't yet contemplated?

  • ClutchShorter

    Do you need to take Series 7, Series 63 exam to open up your own small business for trading? Just a thought.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    what scares me is that if this line fails we have to find some very old lines to hold this sucker down

  • gregn

    That's very impressive, I struggle to manage just one.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Euro is an ankle weight at moment.

    Hopefully some cement applying and a toss over board to come

  • Cypherd

    If you plan on charging a fee in order to manage other people's money, yes.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Some great contrary indicators when you take those classes.
    …worth the effort alone

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Agreed. The good news is, all major indications are still weak and pointing to a serious correction at some point, but imo for very short-term trading we'll need some real selling to negate that new day high.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I would consider a mix of price correction (keep the bull ilusion barely) and gold to 1300 1400

    I thought diferently and made the bad call of just shorting equities

    p.s. those extra lines came into play and should come into play again

  • gsavli

    It better come soon since carry trade still works when USD goes down. It would have to be institutional sellers, but they're nowhere to be seen…

  • dollar

    bght more sds and qid, any other bears out there?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    I focus on one strategy mainly and I have some help.
    A second strategy trades less often

  • gregn

    Does your mentor still trade? If so, what is his view on the current market?

  • Me_XMan

    Bought some more SDS and UUP yesterday.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    He is my largest account

  • gregn

    Ironic. 😉

  • Me_XMan

    The leverage play on the dollar is huge for SPX. Watch for major correction on the dollar.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    He is not trading. He wants to be long until there is a clear break and he is not very optimistic for coming years

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nasdaq is still contained by the october high, major divergence…

  • centerline

    Just came back. What the F was that? Pretty nasty taking out the 1100. I am sure that a mess of both buy and sell orders were sitting there.

  • Tronacate

    FSLR taking a pounding

  • gregn

    What is your threshold for that? SPX 1000?

  • gsavli

    On the dollar??? I thought USD just made a correction and now it's equities' turn?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    are you kidding? just us hamsters (but grandpa was a grizly)

  • Me_XMan

    If today dollar gain holds, SPX will be red tomorrow.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Covered Euro short here for now just now.
    …will like to go in again today if no real recovery

  • Me_XMan

    I see SPX correction is coming tomorrow.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    If it looks like it will close above 1101 i have to adjust

  • gregn

    I am talking about your mentor's account. What is your threshold for jumping out of his long position? Where is the 'clear break'?

  • TransworldDepravity

    Nasdaq outperforming and UUP up big. 22.50 looks like a nice support level if it can hold it. Happy my AAPL calls are keeping me in the green…so far.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW where is our beloved and fearless leader?

    MOLE! wake up and come watch the paint dry

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    He is net-short at moment 😉

    …but it is a light line and it gives me a better opp at buying the pullback. Then if mkt doesn't catch a bid, I let go longs and hold short, whereas if mkt catches a bid I have the longs and let go the short; something like that.

    I cannot ride short and lose money though, or I am going to be in hot water.

    Dont lose money, right

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just courious, can anyone indulge a crazy hamster and do an s&p or a nasdaq NET of the gaps? Don't know if any software could do it easily enough

    I have a very interesting theory on that one…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    could be, maybe, the last wave up? looking at a 2 hr charts…LOOKS like 5 wave up..so MAYBE we get at least a correction..or MAYBE more???

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Well, it's either (i),(ii) of v up or v,(i),(ii) down – anyone's guess right here…

  • ClutchShorter

    Wow UUP is going up. Market isn't really reacting much.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Powerful move in the DXY folks, yet equities seem totally unfazed. Is there a delayed reaction here or what?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Bounced off support dating back to start of year – http://screencast.com/t/ZjA4MTk1Y2Y

    If we go through that…

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Well, as long as Commerzbank and DB remain weak we can pretend it's building a right shoulder.

  • gregn

    Looks like /DX is going to retest that oh-so-important 76 again.

  • angrywetcat ©

    You need the 65 to charge fee-based.

  • TransworldDepravity

    IYR looking weak here on a 3-5 day chart. Possible double top with a large divergence on MACD.

  • gregn

    Not sure if anyone else posted a chart on this, but there is a big time positive volume divergence in /DX: http://screencast.com/t/ZDkyYTliY

  • Duuuuuude

    I would love to see a break above the 50 day MA.
    http://screencast.com/t/NTY1MGQ3

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't make me salivate

  • gregn

    You and me both, brother.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    tail and dog are in a wagging contest and considering divorce…

    kidding, Mole showed several charts where you see equities lag FX

  • gmak

    Correlation is not causation. I just got back from a meeting and it looks like the stops in EUR below 1.490 got swept. I doubt that it was part of the linked liquidity pools that would lead SPX to drop as well.

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Yes, it looks promising. All we need now is the DAX to close below 5650 in 25 minutes and we'll be set. (Joking, sort of.)

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    I am imagining that Mole is holed up in the evil mountain lair right now playing some suitable music for the occasion…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FXoyr_FyFw&feat

  • gmak

    I don't understand why this is called a divergence. Volume rising = DXY rising. Dxy falling = volume falling.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I'm imagining that our glorious leader decided to have a normal evening yesterday and wake up at proper hours for the west coast.

    Might as well, he's holding his shorts so today is a non event, either way

  • Bearinator

    Oil bubble may be bursting soon.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's called “i don't believe the fall”

    don't sell a quiet market after a fall

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sure hope so, my ERYs are killing me

  • bobthehorse

    Today has been dull. Made worse by the fact that someone drew a flush on the river in the late stages of a partypoker tourny while I was holding kings and queens and all in.

    Strategy remains sit on flat delta with dec 1050's whilst this whippy topping phase exhausts everyone else. 1087 breaking would be the first sign we are going to make money. 1060 is the medium-term support.

  • Duuuuuude

    It seems to me that for such a large rally in the dollar today, stocks are blowing it off. There seems to be some sort of disconnect today.

  • Tronacate

    Today is actually setting up pretty well……. move down…..metals down…..stronger dollar…….
    letting the yuan float with the hot Chinese economy could result in just the opposite of assumed….the dollar could strengthen alot…

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    A chart to gladden the heart

    http://screencast.com/t/NTFjMzlkMTIt

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's getting interesting, LOD, the timing is right… might get a trend day down

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Tronacate

    Shorted CROX earlier

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Funny you should say that – I just posted about it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm on the case boys – just finished my first post.

  • Duuuuuude

    As the say…… Great minds think alike! :)

  • gmak

    <thumbsup>

    ________________________________

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    good to see you back, I'll check it out ASAP

    p.s. we've got another “touchy leave” FA_Q

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, when you count, take into account nasdaq did NOT make a new high. I know EWT does not allow 2's beyond 1 but… we are no longer in kansas

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks, it's a classic phrase

    and … thanks for the mrning updates, I don't say it enough but I know you know they are highly appraised

  • Me_XMan

    SPX 1070 on the docket…

  • Guest

    Are you really gone for good? By the way, Bob apologized to you. He wrote “I will also take the opportunity to apologise for winding you up. No serious offence meant.” ( http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12667#comment-22821852 )

  • Guest

    You still have a quarter short sell ES order set for SPX 1115? I think you might get filled today. Watch what happens after 2:30 PM Eastern.

  • Anonymous

    I had missed you leaving, thats to bad. Drop me a line at ckeltner at comcast dot net if you are interested in joining a trade chat I follow, I think your style would fit right in