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Some Sentiment, Some Stats, And Some Energy Spreads
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Some Sentiment, Some Stats, And Some Energy Spreads

by MoleFebruary 10, 2012

This is volar with a quant and sentiment update. That being said, I did something different today- I added some “fundamental” data on the bottom. I did this- not for trading, but bc the news is lame, CNBC is full of retards and koolaid, and frankly its nice to hear sound thoughts- even if its my own voice. I understand most of this may seem like it does not go together (sory in advance per the 20 charts)- but we are talking markets and what else do you have to do this weekend? Beer and free data- sheesh I might read my own post- jk.

For those that are not subs- you get a freebie- heck I bummed 2 charts.

Anyway as for the market, I cannot say I could agree more with Fearless’s last post. Longer-term there is much potential given the panic (VIX and volume for that matter) in August. Yet, some red flags are prevalent. Let us have an unbiased look.

First sentiment, then stats, then spreads.

The CBOE equity put/call ratio is low and my daily sentiment data is off-the-charts. The NASDAQ daily is the highest since 2000- and here is what Jason at ST says “Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment was 75% net long again this week.  The 3-week average is now 75%.  That’s the highest average over a 3-week period since July 14, 2000.”

As always my hats of to SentimenTrader.

Unreal.

Unreal.

And… unreal. Now on to stats…
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A ton more of Volar’s charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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And a chart for perspective.

Here is the raw data.

And here are some key metrics during the signals.

Clearly rare event and risk of a short-term correction.

Now 2 things to remember about me:

(1) I was a huge bull in AUG.

(2) I do not use fundamental analysis as a trading tool for equities- but I always watch stuff. I just want to open your eyes to some research-real research. I just wan to throw up when I turn on CNBC or read the WSJ. The general public is full of blissfully ignorant morons, who drink koolaid like its going out of style. Politicians, analysts, people, and news- all just crap. Zero Hedge may have a bias, but at least there is reality. I do not suggest you use this data to trade- I am just revealing some economic data so you all can have something intellectually stimulating to read over the weekend.

FWIW I have been really really LONG RBOB and made a killing based on seasonality and a technical breakout- but I am out now.

First we should look at the dollar data- to me Brent is a bit high.

So just saying the market is trading high relative to the dollar. So one would presume if this is going on, fundamental data must be really supportive… problem is…. it is not for the moment.

Consider what 3.14 APR RBOB will do to already horrid demand…

Here is U.S. Domestic fuel demand- unreal.

Here is total U.S. demand including exports for Gasoline. Amazing what high prices can do….

So clearly exports have been key- but right now they are able to bail out the total demand number as U.S. demand is horrid.

Ya not in the news – go figure. Clearly exports have been key- but what happens when Brent is at $120 for too long? Well China auto sales SUCK, and that may reduce global demand, and consequently, our exports. I am not saying we export directly to China, but when one area losses demand, supply finds a home elsewhere.

Now I bring up China, because China has been 33% of all GDP growth since 2007. China autos just dropped nearly 30% and commercial sales are the lowest in 3 years. It is one thing to care about the collapsing participation rate in the US, but China is a big deal.

This chart shows autos and M2 (money supply).

The primary reason for this drop is M2 (no that is not on CNBC). So this was not too much of a “surprise” to me as the M2 suggested this, but it still is a big deal IMO.

Here is auto sales and oil demand- Remember China has been well over 50% of oil demand growth over the past years.

This may cool off oil imports- but who cares I guess… BEN gets his wish.

Now let us talk RBOB.

This was an easy technical trade.

And another reason was the strong seasonality.

And brent- what falking awesome base! Man i llove this trade- nuts that the fundamental data is just retarded.

So that worked out well. But one must just laugh at the irrationality in markets today. I hear we are short gasoline supplies and yet refineries are going to produce a crapload… the chart below is a gasoline “crack/crush” on a 3 month basis. Unreal. Unreal. Unreal.

Now here is the deal Eurobob is the same falking way! We wont export, but we will import… This is US gas- Europe crude on a out-front 3 month basis.

How many times do you here eurobob on the Wed. CNBC oil report? Ugh.. so lame- I get so tired of the simple minded- linear thinking- one tracked media.

And another chart- US oil drilling rigs. You see this on TV? Unreal-koolaid amok.

Unreal. Unreal.

I leave you with a fun chart.

So bottom line: the global economy has bailed out the energy markets since 2009, but there are some cracks out there (pun intended). US may not be able to ration demand much more and exports may not be the story in 2012. And if you think supplies are tight (cause we no demand is in the shitter), well refineries produce it. So just thought I would drop this by you all, bc what the heck else do I have to do? Nobody in the media will talk about it…
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Not sure all of that should go in one post – but now you have something to do this weekend besides get off on Ben Bernanke.

Best of luck unbiased trading,

-Volar


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    Thanks Volar!

    Dollar is Rocking looks like 3 weeks of RSI divergence is finally coming to fruition
    and my Silver & Gold trades with it.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/b4bc3877-521c-4648-9ea1-c18460d9186a/2012-02-10_0720.png
    be careful now if you went short at 1350, pace yourself do not fight the line, setup at 1330 and set a tight one…meanwhile doing cpr on JJ. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Vj092UgKwQ  I need it for rhythm 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Thanks for the uber-post Volar!  Lots to digest.

    Never effing fails that the market rolls over AFTER cash closes and Globex opens. I was in Kingston, Ontario to see Deep Purple in concert when the slide started. Great show, btw. My ears are still ringing.

  • Anonymous

    Looking to reverse positions @ /ES 1330:)

  • Anonymous

    Volar, Nice post! Whenever I see your Brent vs Dollar chart a spread pops into my mind. Based on that chart alone, it seems like being short both dollar and brent (in the right ratio) would be a high probability play…

  • Anonymous

    Has BTFD been replaced by STFR?  (buy the f’ing dip/sell the f’ing rip) 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I love the Rydex chart.  there’s no rule it can’t go higher say 4.5?
    still.  Consider us all have been warned.
    -DG

  • Anonymous

    Yesterday, $NATV:$NYTV finished at 2.82  ….   FYI

  • Josh Clark

    Will Prechter have to fall on his sword or will he be vindicated?

    http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/ 

  • Anonymous

     We be “bear flaggin”?

  • Joe_Jones

    Out F. Standing post!

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/39335ebe-b42c-4c13-a7c3-86cd119f2a7c/2012-02-10_0945.png
    Update on /es, like I said do not fight it, wait for the action to come to you at around 1330.

  • Joe_Jones

    This bear is badly bruised up and turned into a zombie.
    Though with a little “persuasion”, it may decide to wake up again and fuck the prom queen.

  • Kudos

    Two pushes to test the 8:45 low on ES, couldn’t put in a new LOD. Careful getting too short if we cant put in a new LOD soon

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    SUBS – check your email – I just sent you a little mini post :-)

  • Anonymous

    In calls for a bounce.

  • Anonymous

    VIX up 20% here, FYI. If we do fall rest assured that we will have a retest of highs.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wear ear plugs next time – although nobody does it you have no idea how much your long term hearing suffers.

  • EvilTrader

    Today is a glory day for Bears, and i expect next week to be as well.

    With a little patience, traditional TA, indicator divergences, gravity law, praying and DeMark setups often get their days in the sun ! LoL

  • Anonymous

    /ES 1341 is 38.2 of this correction.

  • volar

    I hope some of you took these trades when I recommended them a bit back

    http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/81ffc1ce-c641-43c5-a160-35cf98a89909/2012-02-10_0835.png

    VIX time spreads killing it today

  • seek_truth

    FAZ signaling we are going higher on ES

  • EvilTrader

    I dont trade VIX, but that was a very good call.

  • Anonymous

     yeah!…. praying

  • Anonymous

    For some reason that never works for me:)

  • Fibz

    out of TVIX for 10% gain.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The big drop in Chinese auto sales each January is due to their new year late in the month.

  • Anonymous

     works for me on everything else BUT the stock market

  • Anonymous

     LOL! Well just pray to hit the lottery:)

  • Anonymous

    not that either

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    S&P down 10 points.
    whew. what a stumble.
    never seen this pattern before.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6f/Rtriangle.svg/220px-Rtriangle.svg.png 

  • volar

    Yoy man… cant spin that one

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    My bull friend informed me NewYears shut things down for weeks.
    everyone (who can) travels home.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (you can’t keep a good quant down)
    😉

  • Kudos

    Isn’t it later or earlier this year? 

  • volar
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’ve been tracking Corporate Bonds,
    sharing the knowledge.

    http://i40.tinypic.com/aaxiyh.png

  • Anonymous

    Piled on NGSX, buy fear @ .57

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yo, this year it’s because they hired German driving instructors and too many Chinese failed the test.

  • Anonymous

     LOL!

  • volar

    LOL i think they drive good in china… but do not get in a wreck nobody will stop and help out- its unreal

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Anyone took the gold daily RTV sell?

  • Schwerepunkt

    I brought a pair with me, but it wasn’t so loud that I felt the need. I rarely go to concerts. If I went more often, I’d probably have worn the damn things. Thanks for your concern though.

  • Anonymous

    Long /HG, stop below today’s low:)

  • Anonymous

    Nice little div carving out on 5min, see how it plays out.

  • Joe_Jones

    If VWAP doesn’t hold, the EOD should be interesting.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Added to my call pos for an EOD squeeze:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Guts feeling?

  • Anonymous

     Don’t think were ready for any significant drop here. Day trade:)

  • Joe_Jones

    You’re probably right. I don’t like this wide opening gap left unfilled.

  • Anonymous

     When this thing falls we will know it.

  • Anonymous

    I’ll start liking it if it remains unfilled , but low prob of that

  • Anonymous

    I’ll start liking it if it remains unfilled , but low prob of that

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
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  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
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  • Joe_Jones

    True. No point of getting over-excited about a few red candle intra-day. When ZL will be -1 and lower bring on the defibrillator.