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Sprott to Trot
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Sprott to Trot

by MoleDecember 29, 2009

MD/CD here and at your service (ha!)…

I’m decompressing a bit more this week than previously planned. But, my PDA is working well out in the California desert and should my market life begin flashing before sand-filled eyes, I wont miss much.

zzzzzzz

If you haven’t seen it, check out today’s comments from hedge fund manager Eric Sprott here. I’m not going to agree that the price of gold plows to ever-heights (it may, it may not), but I do agree the market is likely about 10 years into a long, drawn-out bear market and his point about Fed programs ending in March and the impact of either doing nothing more, or of printing ever more…makes for some interesting catalysts in the not-so-distant future.

Please take a look at this, discuss and tell me what I need to know. I’ll be back later to see what I’ve learned πŸ˜‰


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • bananaben

    Your Sprott article is from Feb 2009.

  • elliott_surfs

    Crikey! I spot me a Liesman in those deserty green chutes!

    (updated Sprott article: http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/12/sprotts-dece…)

  • bubble jeopardy

    You must be in the mojave desert standing over a joshua tree that has been bearish too long.

  • Gerbil_gold

    those are some whacked joshua trees, i was thinking Baja.
    nothing like that down on the mexican border, it's a skillet out there in Imperial valley.

  • Shaka_Zulu

    Yeah, I was going to say it's a FUBAR Joshua Tree.

  • bubble jeopardy

    My other guess is that it is Chuck Prince after the music stopped.

  • Sleepynaptime

    Just realized what watching this market feels like.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKwdRHovYok

  • labdude

    Updated link for Mr. Sprott

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087

  • Sleepynaptime

    Huh. I saw this article with today's date (on businessweek.com). Are they retreading something from February?

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2009-12-29/spr

  • Shaka_Zulu

    Bear Market since 2000? Probably will last 15 to 20 years? We're 9 years deep? Gold will go higher? Check, check, check and not sure. I'm a deflationist, so I'm not sure about the gold call. But I'd listen to that guy before I'd take my advice. πŸ™‚

  • bubble jeopardy

    Link I looked at said the interview was 12/18/2009.

  • Gerbil_gold

    meh, sub 500% – what a hack! πŸ˜‰
    hey, don't you suppose he's been loading up short (like a whale) for the past month?
    whatever. free advice like this is for the public, and about as valuable.

  • http://www.vuepath.com vuepath

    Sprott? Michelle's boobs sure look nice today… πŸ™‚

  • labdude

    Michelle who?–I am at work–no TV

  • Gerbil_gold

    dude, uploadgeek.com
    come on.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://www.vuepath.com vuepath

    Liz Claman left an impressive bra to fill at CNBC, and Michelle Caruso-Cabrera is doing her part. It seems that the producers are giving MCC's boobs a lot more air time lately… maybe the only thing helping to lift their flaccid ratings?

  • gmak

    If you want to talk predictive trades, here is a very crowded one. Kind of like “all eyes on me-Cabrera”.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/84595742-f4a9-11de-9c

    Check out EDZ for a very leveraged play on possible EM death.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Ok, I put the wrong link up.
    Doh!
    Fixed now

  • WTFed

    There we go. Market making that noise Stimpy makes when he deflates.

  • bubble jeopardy

    Agreed. Another bubble that is destined for destruction when the “normal recessionary recovery” doesn't materialize.

  • http://it's%20a%20secret hindyomen

    lol lol my short@1121.75MIT gets filled at 3:59pm

  • gmak

    On the crowded EM trade:

    UBS's Jeffrey Palma, head of gobal equity strategy for UBS AG says “Emerging-market companies are the best stock investments for next year because earnings growth may exceed the expansion in developed nations by 10 percent.”

    hehehe.

  • Tronacate

    Maybe euro/es correlation is back on the table………bit of a delay, but es fell nicely……..would like to see the bulltards get stopped out at 1120 ah

  • Tronacate

    Time for EEM putz imo

  • Gerbil_gold

    dude, the blue moon isn't till Thursday! πŸ˜‰
    what'cha doing loading up early?

  • Tronacate

    Buyers jumped in …….40 k then 37K on the next 5 min bar on the ES ………now it ain't popping………1119.5 would bring on the selling pressure

  • http://it's%20a%20secret hindyomen

    gerbil we're supposed to make some kind of low around thursday…
    i figured starting that descent EOD today is reasonable. (:

    plus 1122 was a 61.8% on globex,
    so today's close broke the very-short-term long
    we come back to 1119.75 at least

  • Tronacate

    NICE distribution on the TF right now…….might portend the future for the big caps

  • goldpackers

    Topping candlesticks for 2 days. MC Cabrera does not hold a candle to Liz Claman. SHE IS HOT!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Gerbil_gold

    maybe a little cold.
    http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y156/freehosti

    ok, go ahead – moderate me.

  • creepy

    hey guys

    think price and time is getting close to the top…. actualy price can be almost in…. but there is some action that makes me suspiciouse about price action…

    http://www.creepytechnicalanalysis.blogspot.com/

    time tells me wait a bit more (mabe 10 days of trayding)

    lets see whats going on…. 1116 important… and if up earlies 1140… cause if his is last wave missing cant be more than 14 pints up…

    better wait… before get all in!!! i am short anyway in some positions (besides day trade of course)

    very nice job guys…

    cheers creepy

  • bubble jeopardy

    The network must not have paid their utility bill that month. πŸ˜‰

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I think I saw Elvis…ehh.. PeeTree guy

    dontblong

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    what you, fairy tails creatures, did to Mole?!!!???!!!
    is he on ice? well preserved???

  • MariAroma

    I did notice that Michelle looked especially “pumped up” Tuesday on CNBC.

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock

    Hi Mole, is this you?
    http://www.youtube.com/user/drinkingwithbob#p/u
    you'll really like this one!
    zee

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock

    QCOM,
    a short now?,
    b short in a day or so?
    c or short at the $48 double top?
    d or Forget about it?

  • kanur

    e) buy some.

  • tradejane

    German markets are having their last session of the year today and will be closing early. DAX movement is muted, currently trading just below 6000. Today's pivot points are clustered close together. Like tight bollinger bands this generally implies an impending break out of some sort.

    Imo, a Comedybank close below 5.88 could help the index pullback to the 5700 area.

  • gsavli

    Error. Long red candle on ES and NQ. NQ dropped 4 points in less than 1 second.

  • Niktus

    Same here, i see a print @ 1113!

  • tradejane

    Yes. DAX dropped about 30 points at the same moment. I saw it after I posted my comment. Spooky.

  • Niktus

    Yes, But FTSE didnt move much…

  • gsavli

    NQ dropped on strong volume of 750 contracts, lol (usually, trading out of regular hours implies maybe 5 or 10 contracts traded per minute).

  • tradejane

    Are they still alive? πŸ˜€

    Comedybank didn't move much either so no champange yet.

  • gsavli

    So, now we know, what could happen to this market, when some volume comes back, 750 contracts and NQ plummets for 4 points. πŸ™‚

  • raised_by_wolves

    Shorted SPX at EOD. All in. Let the chips fall where they may. But that's me, and I could be wrong.

  • tradejane

    Ok, Comedybank below 5.88. Take your pick:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NDNjZGFiZj

  • gsavli

    It would still only be first from the left. πŸ™‚

    It surprises me though, at 5.80 it is very cheap. Something like C, which is an even cheaper stock. Definitely a buy.

  • tradejane

    Admittedly it's kind of early. It still has to close below that area. But these days bears have to be quick if they want to have any kind of a celebration. πŸ˜‰

    I've no problems with the stock itself – have bought it before and will do again, but it needs to start reversing soon:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MGJiMmFh

  • gsavli

    Somebody is trying very hard for a green start in the US.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Re: Sprott

    I don't believe the Fed will stop QE in March. They will continue to implement new schemes to screw the taxpayer, but I'm not sure if their actions will continue to kick the can down the road. I will continue to build my small physical metal inventory and might add some lead (bullets) to my collection. 2010 will be interesting indeed and I am very afraid.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    it feels like something real big coming after New Year…on the short side and way before March as many expect now, me think right after NY

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    reaction on your answer (as NO reaction) is the best illustration how dead bears are now – imagine rotten tomatoes thrown at you just a few months ago for anything like you said! πŸ™‚

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    everything might just become a short on January 4th

  • CorporalCarrot

    I'm not sure which direction the move will be (even though I have posted recently about the sense of deja-vu I'm getting back to 04/05), but I agree with you, its not going to wait until March.

    The Fed is not going to leave uncertainty about this hanging; its not like we will be there in March waiting for an announcement. It will likely be flagged well in advance, Leaked (either intentionally or unintentionally) to certain people, and the market will be getting positioned well in advance of this event.

    That said, there could be a head-fake in one direction before the real move is known.

  • Gerbil_gold

    that's the general thought.
    I think the super smart bulls are even waiting for it, to pick up bargains.
    so baby bears, don't expect some crazy sell easy money down slope.
    IMHO, it's gonna be crazy volatile.

  • Gerbil_gold

    where's GMAK?
    man, hope he doesn't have decompression sickness.
    πŸ˜‰

  • CorporalCarrot

    If P3 ever begins, the only way you lose money as a short is by trying to pick intermediate tops and bottoms and trying to trade “waves”. If you are intelligent, and catch the downturn as it begins and are content to capture 400-600 spx points in the middle, and not get every nuance of the decline (i.e. the inverse of how a buy and hold investor would have done very well this year), you will do extremely well.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • Gerbil_gold

    GLD far right, sign of a wise wulf.

  • Gerbil_gold

    ah, but if i learned from Fall '08. drops raise the premiums on puts so high, it gets really tough to “break even”.
    so high, that it's better to short!

  • raised_by_wolves

    The Hamster would qualify that with the addition of “for a cub.” Hehe.

  • raised_by_wolves

    In other words: “Hitting bottom isn't a weekend retreat. It's not a goddamned seminar. Stop trying to control everything and just let go!”

  • gmak

    Relax Gerbil. Sometimes the bear gets you. I am on holidays after all.

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=13894#disqus_thread

    NEW POST
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  • tradejane

    That's wise advise CC. Long term strategies are the best.

    The only thing I'd like to add is, if one does enjoy short term trading like, ahem, some of us here, it might be a good idea to have an account for that purpose.

    Eliminates temptation to mess around with those long term plans.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    still haven't seen but when I use the term cub it is in a tender way

    BTW, did you scale in at 1086 and 1085? http://evilspeculator.com/?p=13859#comment-2739

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock

    I like springheel_jack, he says try at 47.2

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock

    HI David, are you a mind reader? I think you are a mind reader. Well, you sure can read my mind.

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    I like springheel_jack, he says try at 47.2

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    HI David, are you a mind reader? I think you are a mind reader. Well, you sure can read my mind.