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Stinkyfinger
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Stinkyfinger

by The MoleJanuary 23, 2009

UPDATE 11:42am EST: BREACH! As usual Gold did the opposite of what was expected :-)

I had the audacity to short the precious metal and this is what I got.

Well, I’m out of GLD again with a tiny loss. Not sure I’m ready to load up on calls yet here. But this breach changes everything – based on the wave count it had no business being above the 892 line. Maybe this is the new line in the sand for Gold – let’s see if it sticks.

UPDATE 12:30pm EST: The triangle continues – unless we breach those lines swing traders are having a field day:

UPDATE 2:11pm EST: So far the triangle has held the line. Remember that a breach would open us up to the blue scenario.

UPDATE 2:21pm EST: I just grabbed some March SNDK calls – by mistake actually – planned on getting the Februaries. Anyway, defensible and mental stop around 11.5.

UPDATE Closing Bell: It’s almost closing time and the ES is creeping back towards that triangle resistance line on basically vapor (i.e. flat signal). Now, I’m not in the prediction business, but a possible scenario I can see happening here is that we’ll do something similar as yesterday. MMs bang the tape higher and horrible news over the weekend brings us to the bottom of the triangle and perhaps lower. Not saying that will happen but it’s a plausible scenario.

I will post my usual weekend forecast on Sunday afternoon. Now, I’ve got more coding to do. Enjoy your weekend, you rats! :-)


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • El Gato

    Although GOOG is strong the rest of the beta momo complex is pretty weak; AAPL / RIMM / BIDU etc all pretty feeble. SLB reaction to the news is positive for the drillers. Looking for oppt there. OIH as possible

  • vad

    Might be a bull trap for gold still

  • cnbs08

    Repost:

    Ten year should come back down to earth soon too imo…..and we know what that entails for equities.

    Just buy SKF and SRS on weakness….

  • Skates

    Going long at ES 815…

  • cnbs08

    Back to back inside days for our good ol buddy VIX…..hmmmmm

    Gonna be painful for the wrong side……

    And last time I checked, we were still in a bear market.

  • cnbs08

    Back to back inside days for our good ol buddy VIX…..hmmmmm

    Gonna be painful for the wrong side……

    And last time I checked, we were still in a bear market.

  • molecool

    Yes, could be – but the wave count is still toast. The bullish potential has been greatly increased.

  • maya

    are you buying options if so which month?

  • Anonymous

    Though fundamentally, a bit early for the gold to break this resistance. I am going to wait till i see 9 handle – will take a chance of losing a bit more – can’t still beleive gold’s big rids starts here

  • Anonymous

    Though fundamentally, a bit early for the gold to break this resistance. I am going to wait till i see 9 handle – will take a chance of losing a bit more – can’t still beleive gold’s big rids starts here

  • ablebonus

    Anybody watching S? Showing stubborn strength and on the verge of a cup and handle breakout.

  • cnbs08

    Whatever happened to jeremy roenick…he was one of the best back in his heydays

  • cnbs08

    Whatever happened to jeremy roenick…he was one of the best back in his heydays

  • cnbs08

    Uuhhh…..sorry no comment. LOL.

  • cnbs08

    Uuhhh…..sorry no comment. LOL.

  • traderbull

    Mole, you think that gold overshot to the upside to shake out weak shorts and now is a good time to get in? Or is it just to strong, thinking about shorting AEM.

  • JWBlack

    I think the Zero is great just the way it is.

    I'm in the camp that says if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

  • cnbs08

    Market is still hellbent on trying to suck in new bulltards and shakeout weak shorts……

    All of these little “extra” pushes higher look extremely exhaustive if you ask me……

    Look past the smoke and mirrors folks……

  • tfyisrich

    Gold looks like it will test the downtrend line from the highs at 920's, before the deflationary pressure resumes. But the last week has been strange in that the Dollar is having less impact on the price as the dollar move up so has the PMs and Oil. Something is changing with in the commodity markets.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That wouldn’t work through an image feed, mate.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That wouldn’t work through an image feed, mate.

  • wengue

    Mole, regarding the ZERO: since you are coding it using Ninja Trader I wonder if it would be possible to have it sound alerts (NT has a great bullhorn in its sound files, really makes you jump) when the signals appear (and disappear). Of course this would be for when the indicator goes to a subscription basis.

    Just a thought.

  • SRSFinance

    No matter what you think gold will do here it's still in an intermediate uptrend. Shorting here is fighting the tape and arguing with the market. That rarely pays well over time.

    My .02

  • Vardoger

    Bull flag on POT just hit. Possibly building another, anyone who wants to make daytrades check this out. Last two day sold off hard at open with market and ramped. Trading FEB 85's and they have been doubles off the open both days within hours (not that I caught them but I still like the action)

  • Douala

    molecool

    With the great call at 10:23AM today [Rinse/lather/repeat] … how do you think we will end the day..a 3PM rally?

  • molecool

    Well, you haven't seen that new version yet. Avoids bad/late entries and keeps the good ones. I'll share it later.

  • wengue

    Er.. right. You might think of a subscription/sale plan so that one could be able to get it live on NT so as to have the ZERO open permenantly in a seperate chart with alerts.

  • DZZ

    That was the last run up for GLD. We'll see.
    Compare the size of the GLD rally on these days:
    Fr Dec. 26
    W Dec. 31
    Tu Jan. 6
    Fr Jan. 9
    Tu. Jan 20

    Next two days sideways!
    Any experienced gold bugs want to comment?

  • malusDiaz

    Why should it not rally?

    Wednesday http://tiniuri.com/f/8nj happened.

    Higher opening, cross the close and into a higher then open… on very light volume.

    Selling volume is declining on lows, buying volume is increasing on highs.

    Alot of stock is down 50% -> 75% of their highs, lots of big buys going on.

    Lastly, if we are to go into the B leg (If the last year have been A,) then we will rally till everyone is convinced the next huge bull market is on, and people get greedy.

    Until we start making lower lows again, i put my 20$ on up =D

  • standard_and_poor
  • molecool

    If I just knew buddy – LOL :-)

    I stick with my probabilities (green/orange/blue) – before any of those happen we must breach this triangle.

  • Vardoger

    Very tough to look through the smoke and mirrors.. Look at /ZN and USD/JPY yesterday @10:30, then look at SPX, and GS the rest of the day. Who is buying these?? That's big volume and its coordinated but not convinced its americans playing the games. You could be dead right but its very easy to get your nuts cut off front-running this type of action

  • katzo7

    ST bottom in dzz may have been put in at 23.43.

  • El Gato

    OSIP coming in on the red submarine scan. Stock presented on the 13th at the JPM helath care conference and has done nothing sell off since then. Double red candle and push under 50DMA……..am I pressing my biotech shorts too hard/??

  • cnbs08

    I think we all know which way we're headed…….doooowwwnn. Funny how people are coming out of the woodwork to try to pretend to be bullish……..but to each his/her own.

    Good luck…..

  • geckoman

    repost: I was still posting on the last update.

    Heads up the BB is squeezing on all indexes and on both the 1 hr and 30m time frames. This “could” mean that a big move is coming. I do not know the direction yet.

  • geckoman

    repost: I was still posting on the last update.

    Heads up the BB is squeezing on all indexes and on both the 1 hr and 30m time frames. This “could” mean that a big move is coming. I do not know the direction yet.

  • Skates

    Patrick Kane and Johnathan Toews are the new Roenick! :)

  • Skates

    Patrick Kane and Johnathan Toews are the new Roenick! :)

  • Duuuuuude

    This is the most bullish person on gold I have ever heard.

    http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=Christian

  • Keirsten

    Nope! Keep the ideas rolling. Best thing about a good blog is plenty of eyes watching the whole game.

  • Douala

    I hear you…till then I’ll just keep doing the wash.. with some of these 3x ETFs [FAS]

  • Douala

    I hear you…till then I’ll just keep doing the wash.. with some of these 3x ETFs [FAS]

  • alphahorn

    keg up 15% today!

  • rhae

    I am using auto trend lines, so they move some… I could draw the lines
    myself … or look at different timeframes.

    Very interesting now, the lines are morphing into something resembling a
    asc.T tho not tagging upper rez. line .

    So, I am watching mathimatical calculated 60m resistance lines on the SPY
    60m for clues to see if the bust, with good volume.

    82.81 (busted) then 84.38..

    I used to post pictures in e-mails, but forgot, lol

  • alphahorn

    will the third time be the charm? dow is making another go at what has been its ceiling today, the 61.8% retracement off 1/6

  • malusDiaz

    Pretend to be bullish?

    I put my money on the line as bullish.

  • cnbs08

    Another rollover is coming……exhaustion

  • rhae

    SPX pitchfork sell trigger support held 812, also SPY 60m horrizontal support 81.25

    As far as the triangle SPY 60m, still moving into the apex and not busted current range and squeezing , range 80.68 — 83.77, so agree… I am still in dunno mode.

  • geckoman

    Food, Ag’s, Basic Materials, Gold, Oil all on the move. The Global demand trade is back on! Inflation is taking hold and Obama’s stimulus is working!

    (All sarcasm) Inflation can’t and won’t happen.

  • geckoman

    Food, Ag’s, Basic Materials, Gold, Oil all on the move. The Global demand trade is back on! Inflation is taking hold and Obama’s stimulus is working!

    (All sarcasm) Inflation can’t and won’t happen.

  • Loren1711

    Is this still compatible with the iPhone? The zero provides not only a link to the market, (charts don't work very well) its something one can trade incredibly well away from a computer.

  • katzo7

    Please let us know when it breaks. Watching GLD and DZZ today.

  • cnbs08

    I don’t doubt it…..most on here probably have some sort of hedge going. And I’m not calling you out or anything…..just making an observation.

  • cnbs08

    I don’t doubt it…..most on here probably have some sort of hedge going. And I’m not calling you out or anything…..just making an observation.

  • alphahorn

    yes, but the breadth of each wave is narrower, seems the buyers are becoming more and more impatient, i'm beginning to think it might break through and rally, so if you're looking to add to your skf, srs position i'd wait

  • JWBlack

    Hmm, a long ETA and a short ETA side by side.

  • cnbs08

    Really….? I think once the ten year collapses, it'll be too late and it'll be one of those coulda shoulda woulda trades……

  • geckoman

    Signal to go long Energy based on the BB Squeeze. adding to ERX here.

  • cnbs08

    Ten year is finally about to rollover and looks pretty ripe for a nice big drop…..

  • MaxPainMan

    USO making a run for it

  • MaxPainMan

    USO making a run for it

  • standard_and_poor

    Remember the hordes of toyotas and hondas that began to arrive to our shores in the 70’s and 80’s?
    Look for a new kind of Japanese dealership which will be soon shipping DEFLATION to America (metaphoricaly) . Short Japan,short commodities.
    http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12998246

  • standard_and_poor

    Remember the hordes of toyotas and hondas that began to arrive to our shores in the 70’s and 80’s?
    Look for a new kind of Japanese dealership which will be soon shipping DEFLATION to America (metaphoricaly) . Short Japan,short commodities.
    http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12998246

  • El Gato

    It;s known (market perception) Oil and Gold are moving in tandem for the first time in a long time!! The market might be suggesting that it believes the consumer is not out of money. Perhaps retail following is the next part of this trade?? hmmm. Sharpening my pencil

  • alphahorn

    the 61.8 retracement looks like it's about to force the dow out of the bottom of the symmetrical triangle. the upside scenario is quickly running out of time. if it doesn't breach the retracement it will the bottom of the triangle very soon

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, that rattled me as well – fortunately it dropped off – had just grabbed one contract when it happened.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, that rattled me as well – fortunately it dropped off – had just grabbed one contract when it happened.

  • molecool

    Yeah, I'm driving their newest model – the JPY – smooth ride and ZIRP financing.

  • alphahorn

    dow finally broke through the 61.8 retracement

  • http://alphahorntrading.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    moved

  • cnbs08

    Fakeout if I ever saw one……

  • Vardoger

    Target hit on POT, out of trade for now

  • standard_and_poor

    Right brother, first deflation then inflation catches up years from now.

  • alphahorn

    maybe, but it's now in the center of the triangle and the top is back in play

  • cnbs08

    I actually have it running right into it right now and being turned away…..futures tho.

    The cascade lower begins…..

  • geckoman

    BB Squeeze fired long Energy. Posted this 10 min ago but signal disappeared kinda like the zero. Addig to ERX here.

  • http://maximumleverage.blogspot.com/ Max Leverage

    Don’t give up hope on your gold shorts yet. If I’m reading this correctly, insiders are dollar-bearish based on a banking system “fix” coming very soon (this weekend)? The fix would be positive for most stocks, it could go either way for financials depending on what the nature of the fix is, and it would kill the spike in gold, driven by fears of banking system insolvency.

  • malusDiaz

    SSO Breakout : http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3470/3220015099_

    1min, 5 min, 15min, 30min, 1h All confirm.

    (Daily doesn't, yet)

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I hope this market cranks up. This choppy crap is nuts. Looking forward to loading up on more june puts on spy.

  • geckoman

    I dunno I am so skeptical of the action today on GLD and Oil. I am playing ERX but seems like a sucker move.. Chart of DZZ bouncing right where you would expect.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folders/Jing/media/87eb5d6f-b027-41ac-8df4-dc3bf5a55503

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    How ya doing today Erikd. Quit in your corner. Taking a spoke break :)

  • cnbs08

    SKF and SRS……add now.

    VIX is about to shoot higher…..

  • alphahorn

    i think it's getting time to take some profits. my longs from yesterday: keg +17%, swks +8%, wft +10%, frickin tbt only up 2.3%

  • standard_and_poor

    LOL!

  • Vardoger

    I assume you are adding to your positions? Are you fully committed to the short side?

  • Keirsten

    GS through resistance @ 73.77. Let's see if it can hold it up there.

  • cnbs08

    Steve grasso……another sleazy, slimy lying scumbag that does his job exactly the way they want him to……deception deception deception all day long.

  • Vardoger

    go rub one out and take a deep breath. Rick will set them straight

  • Publius Federali

    Dude, chill out. You want to lose money and your sanity at the same time? If the noise is going to kill you then just take a longer term position and don’t trade. You are driving yourself nuts, it’s not worth it. You want to fight Kramer The Klown? Roll a bone and blaze one out. We don’t want to hear on CNBC that a trader died of a heart attack while watching their crappy channel. Don’t let them get you down.

  • Vardoger

    XOM @50% fib 79.38, touching upper trendline of the pennant. Getting awfully close to decision time… on everything

  • Vardoger

    FEB 10 XLF calls traded 240,000 so far today. You are nuts if you want to short the hole in financials, nuts!!

  • DeepSlackerJazz

    I'd have to keep my 'pute volume on low here at work. Don't need a bullhorn going off and busting my cover =:0

  • molecool

    “go rub one out and take a deep breath”

    LMAO – word!!!

    1+

  • Publius Federali

    Watch the Eur/Yen cross. It has crashed as the market tanked and hit new lows yesterday. It has been going straight up with this rally, back to the 115 level which was the support over time. This was our first breach below it, we saw it around 112.5 last night. Two and a half points in a few hours, that used to be six months of movement. The moves are absolutely insane, to think currencies can trade with these massive moves is nuts. We were almost at 130 on this when the SP rallied to 950 a couple of weeks ago. When this finally breaches the 115 for good is when we see the market completely collapse.

  • cnbs08

    Puahahaha……ok duuude. Blaze a phat one for me.

    It's more comedy than anything else…….

  • Duuuuuude

    Mole, did you leave the GLD party too soon? It is flat lining on the day chart.

    http://screencast.com/t/k3b2KnV0

  • de3600

    I understand his anger I just got off the phone with my insurance company to cancel the building end of my company and all she kept telling me is how people are stopping their insurance all together and shutting down to hear these dopes pump stocks is a joke these clowns at cnbc have no idea whats coming {- rick).But as mole would say bulls can be stupid longer than you can stay solvent.

  • Publius Federali

    That channel does seem like a running joke. We had Kudlow last year going on for six months about the Vince Ferrel bottom put in after the Bear collapse.

    That is why this site is so great. The market is not about cheerleading, it is about your money. We don’t take emotional stances with our money. We invest it whichever way should be best. Long one minute, short the next. I have no loyalty to the market, I have loyalty to my money that I earned with hard work.

  • cnbs08

    So I guess it's joe the plumber who's selling those upside otm calls on that kind of size?

  • Keirsten

    Just got out of RIMM for now. What a rip, huh? Watching POT and MOS now for a pullback.

  • ablebonus

    That is a bullish pennant, not a flatline.

  • cnbs08

    Ten year is sliding and surprisingly the VIX is looking like it’s basing…….what a coincidence.

    Index futures all look like they’re about to roll

    Turn out the light bulltards…..

  • Vardoger

    what's your favorite longs if the bulltards run with this Mole??

  • cnbs08

    Smells like an old insecure friend……..or sounds?

  • standard_and_poor

    Try again spx, the bottom trendline is the one to watch.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/JM2jTwRGWm

  • Vardoger

    Seriously, are you clocking anything else besides those for longs?

  • Keirsten

    NBR, SUN, GS for me. SUN looks like it wants to jump back in that channel. How about you?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Dow would be up alot more if GE was not in the hole

  • alphahorn

    and it's about to break through the top of the symmetrical triangle. scenario blue might be in effect

  • Duuuuuude
  • geckoman

    Long signal on all indexes on BB Squeeze.

  • cnbs08

    Bob pistachio…….another sack o sh#$ scumbag who they try to portray as being somewhat more respectable……complete deutschebag

    His favorite phrase……”Here's the problem…….

    The financials are heading higher for the next 2 weeks according to him…….puahahaha. I didn't know he was a trader.

  • cnbs08

    Yeah it'll break up just long enough to lure in the biggest suckers……the one's that wait for the breakout and then get long……..just another pull the rug out from underneath you scenario playing out again……..

  • Vardoger

    UYG, POT, RIMM, IDCC, PBR, IWM, and tempted to look at UNG but my hands are already pretty cut up playing with that one… Not a lot of good entries here though, everything at resistance right now and were not selling off on volume so I’m pretty bullish but I need a better entry

  • katzo7

    I think you will get your wish now, market-wise.

  • BalaB

    Mole,
    I was just gonna ping you. There is indeed a lot of resistance over head and momo is wanning.

  • Dimitry

    Yen doesn't participate in last run up iin stocks. Still below 10 a.m. high

  • Reza

    I think you are right, whatever he says the opposite happens

  • molecool

    That's right – teach those noobs :-)

  • Publius Federali

    You didn’t roll that bone, did you?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mole looks like it breached the triangle alittle but its back in it again.I guess the real test is if it can close above 840 today.

  • molecool

    Okay, you got to stop this shit, mate. NOBODY here cares about those clowns on CNBC. Take your bitchin' somewhere else otherwise I will have to ban you from the blog. This is introducing an element of stress and emotion into everyone's world here – bad karma. This is a trading blog – let's make some money.

  • Nibbler7

    “Pistachio”, that is kinda cute.

  • Keirsten

    Agreed. Keep an eye on TSO as well, but I think SUN probably has a better chart at this point. I've been burned on UNG myself- did better just trading MEE or CHK in that group, but I don't like 'em here. A lot of big block trades firing off this morning on MOS. Could just be short covering- hard to know.

    Waiting to see what oil does when trading closes shortly.

  • cnbs08

    Time to accumulate SKF and SRS again……

  • cnbs08

    Okay sir…..sorry sir.

    Let’s make some money.

  • Vardoger

    We are channeling on the /ES since this morning. It is tight but well defined and obviously upward sloping. Watching it for a break

  • Osso

    but transports still red…..

  • Anonymous

    Nice chart on the Zero, with the angled line and all.

  • Vardoger

    I am looking at going long BAC because they are way oversold, doing it via UYG but if took one it would be them or WFC. No doubt you are right long term but I don’t know if the day of reckoning is here just yet. Just think how sweet it would be to buy puts and the double inverses at a far better entry. We might have endured as much pessimism as possible in the near term, and a lot of financials have already reported. I could be dead wrong though!! In the end, they might all be zero’s… WFC got cut in half in no time. Read that link about the CDS, obviously just a rumor but if the gov steps in it might relieve a lot of pressure on the banks, it might also screw them because it could hurt their level 3 assets… who knows, I just not into shorting holes. JMHO

  • molecool

    Depends on how you connect the line – look at my latest Zero chart.

  • mb_cnbc

    why are you bullish on SNDK?

  • wengue

    Of course it all depends on how you draw your trendlines but it could be breakout of that triangle and retest, so far:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0

    I'm a nervous long, though. That one minute trendline breaks and I'm out.

  • cnbs08

    Yeah upward sloping…..as in rising bearish wedge.

    Watch for the break bc it's coming…..

  • molecool

    Please be aware that next time I will have to ban you. Play nice – life is too short to be upset about b.s. all the time. Just turn off that damn TV and watch the charts – they are telling the truth 24×7 a day. Of course some people get upset about that as well.

  • El Gato

    ENR is floppin and choppin around the 50DMA . A close under here would be a mark against the bunny.

    DV is starting to weaken and may have caught it’s pivot point. News in the education stocks has been great, but news is always best at the top. Insiders have been unloading. Will nibble at some puts as a tracker. Education stocks do well when the economy is poor……..but I think path of maximum frustration is to the downside

  • DrMalaka

    Picked up some JPM Feb 20 puts with a stop at 25, big rally because of Dimon buying, which is meaningless as buying 10mil in stock after you stole $200 mil from the taxpayers does not say much to smart people but means a lot to the talking heads.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Ok my ruler was a little rubbery.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    GE is making new lows.

  • cnbs08

    I think this will work out nicely for you…….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Ge now below 12 ooooops

  • rhae

    DOW might want to hang on to it's Psycho number of 8000

  • cnbs08

    Last hour selloff…….profit taking is gonna set in ahead of the weekend…..but probably not before they try to suck in more bulltard sheep for the slaughter next week.

  • cnbs08

    Who's upset about anything……not me. I welcome the lies and bs……it's rather entertaining to me…….like comic relief.

  • DrMalaka

    Could not happen to a better company. I guess the fact that they stopped doing business with Iran is going to hurt their profits.

  • standard_and_poor

    Finaly, a breach of spy's uptrending trendline posted earlier, the size of drop will be telling for next week's activity. Going down in baks as well at moment.

  • benji12

    when everyone is selling hard, that’s when the big bear mkt rallies occur. i luv it.

  • cnbs08

    There she goes…..bye bye miss american pie…….

    I’m sure the bond guys will have a pretty good time next week……..when the mad rush back in starts

  • El Gato

    Looking for a bounce gere into the close. Rally into the Fed?

  • cnbs08

    Nice try……we're going way lower……

  • katzo7

    I do not think so, I see down form here.

  • malusDiaz

    Looks like a lot of Greedy bears trying to force the market.

  • malusDiaz

    Whoya trying to convince?

  • alphahorn

    anyone trade through terra nova? if so what are your thoughts

  • cnbs08

    No one in particular……I'm just making my usual useless random predictions.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    H&S + little pennant. Might have legs.

  • El Gato

    Tough call. Bulls look pretty weak, but 10 DMA advance /decline somewhat oversold . Brokers and semis all pretty close to capturing 50DMA.

  • El Gato

    Feels 'pressy' here from the bears

  • katzo7

    You are correct, anything could happen and has in this market. The whole market has been tough to call lately.

    But all of my indicators are in alignment and pointing down at same time.

  • Erikd

    still looking for a close on the XLF below 11.70
    bounce/bounce we go…

  • molecool

    No, it's not – that's what you think. You are somehow addicted to creating psychological drama. Put your mind at ease and embrace nothingness. Trading is stressful enough – no reason to expose yourself to bad karma.

  • Jammer63021

    Finding it hard to understand why Zero has not flashed a sell as ES has gone down 10-15 points.

  • molecool

    Greedy bear – that's me! But I'm not forcing – just following the tides.

  • malusDiaz

    aye, like if we rallied… the majority of bears would be hurt… because it's expected to drop… and it would be the 'unexpected' thing to happen…MAX PAIN!

  • malusDiaz

    Sounds more like rat tactics then bear or bull.

    Long live the year of the rat, (3 days till it's Ox Time)

  • SierraSeller

    SNDK looks good; MU looks good also

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    maybe b/c it thinks we are going up :)

  • Keirsten

    Taking a scalp on POT. Zero don't fail me now. LOL

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Because the signal line is still above – well – zero.

    Which means sentiment is not negative enough. It only reports what it sees. If sentiment goes negative it will show it.

  • El Gato

    Moley is right , “Trade what you see, not what you believe “. However, the reaction to SLB earnings miss tells me that institutions are buying this earnings season. bigger picture, I'm looking at range bound SPX 800 to 1000. As always, when the last bull surrenders , then and only then will the market turn up

  • molecool

    It was a good year – only 4,380 days to go until the next one :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Since when is the Zero running on POT? :-)

  • cnbs08

    Volume on the Qs and SPY are not really anything to write home about given that they are still in the green. DIA on the other hand is slightly better and it's firmly lagging and in the red wouldn't you know it……looks like it's about to hit the ceiling again…..

    The russell isn't bad but it's only slightly above flat so I wouldn't make too much out of it.

    Just the shape of things to come……we're in a bear market still right?

  • Vardoger

    It would probably a little slower but way cooler if it did…

  • Vardoger

    I’m tempted Keirsten but am worried about CAT before the bell on Monday and how that will impact the commodities. Remember when they tanked the market in October. They were one of the first to say we were in recession, interesting to see how they guide this time. I might buy a little POT as well but will spread it if we get any ramp

  • Keirsten

    Hey, you’d be surprise what a little duct tape and bailing wire will do! Knew that would get your attention. LOL

    Seriously- Zero has been a thing of absolute beauty this week Mole.

  • El Gato

    THinking about some longer term puts in THO. They've got a little problem; their core market is baby boomers who have had their retirement savings cut in half. Chances are they won't keep on truckin in the next 5 years. stock might look 'cheap' , but its probably just another value trap. Perhaps it will go the route of WGO??

  • Thrownaway

    Useless being the key word.

  • molecool

    I wouldn't say that – got caught in a whipsaw here and there. But it kept us out of mucho trouble and I even have some profits to show for. Good enough.

  • malusDiaz

    one bear market is all i can handle at a time!

  • cnbs08

    Thanks old buddy

  • rhae

    Beats me how anyone can figure if the market is going up or down… All I can see are sign posts, and only when we get to them…… scalpers exempt

  • Keirsten

    Listen, anytime it keeps us OUT of trouble is keeping us alive to trade another day. Better than good enough my friend. I don't know how many times in that last many, many weeks I would have pulled the sell signal and lost profits that I wouldn't let run-. You can't measure how valuable that is (well, actually you can, but you catch my drift.) Imagine the calculations if you were also basing that on compounding? Yeah baby!

  • Keirsten

    We absolutely ARE still in a bear market. Doncha worry, just trade the tape and ignore your conflicting thoughts about it, shut that stupid squawk box off during the day, crank up some good music and you’ll be good to go. 😉

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    you always say 11. Its 8.70 lol

  • molecool

    Got to love that enthusiasm – especially coming from you.

    18 more days.

  • cnbs08

    XLF is almost at the end of the road too…….lower we will go soon enough…..but maybe we have to wait til monday for the real fireworks to start. Anyone who's willing to let things ride should add some SKF and SRS at eod.

  • Keirsten

    Kept half my lot. Sold the other
    Score:
    Pot: 0
    Kirsten: 0

    No beers on me tonight. 😛

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Score one for the Zero on the last hour today!

    (Although I defied it when I saw us close near the trendline and got short at the close.)

  • drjain

    So which is the more powerful pattern… three inside days or triangle? Monday will be telling.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Just out of curiousity, are you mainly looking at volume, price action or oversold indicators?

    I'm seeing a lot of MACD indicators pointing downward. The indicator that I use to spot trend changes is relative change in the $COMPQ vs. the $SPX, and the Nasdaq was more bullish all day. I also watch the $RUT relative to the $SPX, and it was a little more bearish, so the Naz action could just be sympathy for the GOOG beat this morning. I'm skittish about going too short until I see the Naz hit the brakes relative to the $SPX.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Thanks! I was wondering what was causing the Dow to be negative all day. It's amazing how one stock can tank the whole index when the whole thing is made up of only 30 stocks.

    (By the way, I heard on CNBC that if every bank in the Dow went to zero, the effect would only be 400 Dow points. A year ago, the financials were 30% of the index.)

  • Vardoger

    FXP and EEV are right up there as well. News out of DC tomorrow and CAT earnings before the bell are what I'm keying on. Put a call spread on the UWM and UYG for specs but I wouldn't be suprised to be at 740 or 940 next week, either way I'll have a trade to put on. Good weekend to all

  • katzo7

    I use MACD on 5 different time frames, 1, 3, 10, 15 and day and the stochastics to time entries and exits. Nothing is working now though, this sucker switches faster than a, well you fill it in. I also use EWs but they are going from 1-5 waves into ABCs and back and forth. When I posted this, they switched to an ABC right after.

    In other words, wave patterns are getting set up and then get morphed and altered. IMO, this type of activity is consistent with a trend change, either up or down I don't know although it is currently in what I thought of as a EW5 down on the day charts. There is a possibility that it could go up and reform the extant EW4 top, pushing it higher and to the right. This market hs been famous for retesting.

  • wolfers

    On your Gold trade…if you manually input the Retracement Levels on the website that can No Longer Be Named…I get a 92% likelihood of Gold topping @ 902.16….Monday should be look out below….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, people were bitching about that and now they know why – LOL :-)

  • molecool

    Thanks, good work.

    1+

  • eurobear

    Did 838 intraday high on SPX not give us a breakout above the line and so blue option is in play ?

  • GMunni

    Mole, re your thinking about the gap down Monday – I was thinking the same thing until I saw the close and now think it will likely be a gap up, possibly followed by a crap later in the week to complete c of B but then again there is nothing to say that the gap fill at 802 didn't complete B and now we're heading higher in C. A failed triangle break to the upside would confuse a lot of folks. However, I can't reconcile the timing except that maybe early Feb will be the end of wave 1 and start of wave 2 of larger C.

    Carolan's outline may be predictive of the move http://carolan.org/2009/01/21/solutide-updated/

  • GMunni

    It did but there is no saying it wasn't an E wave overthrown since it didn't exceed C (the previous triangle spike high). Once that happens then the triangle is dead.

  • GMunni

    Kind of makes one want to short SRS into the weekend…

  • traderbull

    I tried getting short late in the day thinking the same thing, but a little higher number, and couldn't get filled. Hopefully a gap up or a small climb and I can get short it. I never thought of using the “secret named indicator” on gold. Great work.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I actually read his book – swell guy.

  • Randy Harris

    Hey mole, ever think about setting up a full fledged Evil Forum instead of just comments? Might really kick the rats and leeches into high Evil gear.

  • molecool

    Not really – this works just fine.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Yes. I think a lot of high-fliers are going to be cut down to size when Wave 5 hits. I'm going to go through Wave 5 of A down from 2002 and see if blue chips and defensive names took a big hit over that time frame compared to the broader market.

    As far as the education names go, the one I've been following is APOL, but I'll run through the others this weekend to see if the whole group looks right for a drop. APOL first got my attention because it has a ton of air under it.

    Here's the long-term chart I posted a few days ago, updated for today's action. We've hit the top of my channel, and it took a bounce down today. Note that there is an intersection of the previous high and a fib fan in a week or two at 98. I'll buy a bigger chunk of puts if we get there.

    http://www.engineeringthemarket.com/uploaded_im

    Here's a shorter term chart. It looks like today's move down was an ending diagonal breaking down at the end of a larger EW flat pattern. It looks like this was 5 of (c) up to me, but the 5 waves aren't as clean as I usually like to see. A move up to the fib fan on the first chart or a retest of the previous high wouldn't surprise me. Also, note the MACD divergence on the short term chart. (I'd love to have any of the resident Elliotticians check my work on this on the charts below.)

    http://www.engineeringthemarket.com/uploaded_im

  • Legendary

    Lost a few ES points today over trading… dammit.

    Thanks for all posts this week!

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Wave E false breakouts are VERY common, as are Wave E's that don't make it all the way to the top trendline. Volume is very low at that point. Symmetrical/running ones usually break in the direction of trend. (I make an exception for barrier triangles, which have one edge that is horizontal. For barrier triangles, the horizontal edge usually is the one to break.)

    If I see some volume and a close above the upper trendline, I'll consider it broken.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Monkey boy…
    Do you consider possibility of “Over Shoot”, wherever a breach occurs?
    I remember way too many over shoot in this bear market….
    Almost every other pattern….

  • ZigZag

    $CRX looks to be finishing a 2 wave up before the plunge.

    http://tinyurl.com/bv2mac

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    OMG I'm going to have to read about this Zero this weekend.

  • http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com dkpa

    TGIF Mole –

    There is a Q to you on carolan, and I would love to know your answer. FYI

  • Jack

    I don't see any TA signals to support a midterm rally from current level to 9xx. Actually all the signals still give SELL in daily chart.
    I opened small shorts at close.

  • C.C. Rider

    Tech and banking won't be a drag, and commodities are showing signs of life. It'll be short and sweet but good for a nice run.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$NDX,P

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    spx to 970 first using ew and trend.html: http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com/2009/01

  • standard_and_poor

    Total bank debt is in excess of total bank equity, and last time I checked home prices, oil, copper, lumber, corn, wheat, dry shipping index, world in recession werein solid down trends f
    ierce shalf year down trendson and on , were down all in.hoinflation

  • http://jadedapprentice.com JadedApprentice

    Someday UNG will be the buy of the century…now if it would just stop making those pesky new lows day by day… 😉

  • de3600

    Freddie Mac asks the government for more help
    Mortgage giant to ask Treasury for another $30 billion to $35 billion hey its only money

  • standard_and_poor

    Fellow rats: We devote 70-99% of our trading hours to analyzing possible trades (charts, systems, etc.) executing, monitoring and worrying about the trade and finally exiting the trade. How much time or effort do we devote to the actual art of money management (%of account to devote per position, maximimum loss to allow per position, as well as maximum total losses to allow before we shut trading down and reevaluate. These and many more perplexing issues are the one's which should take centerstage in our lives as traders. Ideally no one should risk more than 2 to 5% on a single position,
    especially since most stocks are highly correlated, nor lose more than 20% in their account before they decide to take a step from trading to re-examine their trading system, money management or
    psychological makeup. Brother rats the mind will lay ruin the best trading system or money management rules. I scoffed at this notion years ago, no more……

    Enough said, read this psychology article for starters. Think money management rather than just stock picks………. Read money mgmt. books not just trading books (big difference).
    Start with this article of new research in psychology.
    http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.c

  • standard_and_poor

    I'm going to enjoy the rest of my Fri., I leave you with tonight's video from a group of lads from Cambridge (no not Radioead; they're from near Oxford (I had forgotten that). The lads wrote a song oddly enough about money management:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_anbEJsr6s

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    970 or 1100? Take a look: http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com/

  • maya

    Mole let me know what you think, Historically looking at this chart, from Nov drop we had 27.47 gain, and so far our drop was about 15.39 %, now by looking at the price that is about 13% difference which should be little more by looking at this, at least 5% which would bring us to 760, before we could have a next leg up
    http://www.screencast.com/users/irochka11/folde

  • Randy Harris

    Thanks, I'm unfortunately guilty in too many aspects of what you wrote about – points all taken to heart.

  • Erikd

    just seeing who is paying attention….. 8>)

  • Mastachopchop

    “Roll a bone and blaze”…Puff puff give. I could use a good smoke after the beating I took Thurs and Fri. The markets sucked ass. Simply sucked.

    Mole…I'm a big fan of the Zero, but I got my arse handed to me the last two trading days. I'm hitting the books this weekend to get my mind right for Monday.

  • Erikd

    upside down Roof Top formation being built on $SPX? comments…
    $SPX http://screencast.com/t/H90dL8uqjg

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    Shorting FDX with a stop north of 55. That is all.

  • DetroitDave

    Mole (& Berk, if you would be so kind to forward this)

    I don't want to go all Lifetime Channel on you here, but I want to share my thoughts with you.

    I've been chasing the market for about 10 yrs searching for a clue.When the Zero arrived, it gave me the confidence to CHANGE MY LIFE. Yesterday I funded my futures account and became a full time day trader.

    Had a bang up day thanks to you and the Zero. Got nervous on the first trade with real money, but the Zero stepped in, steeled my backbone and with your additional comments, made out +750 for the day.

    I'm a small business owner here in the Detroit area and things “ain't so good”( I keep having to add unemployed family members to the payroll, at my personal expense). A recent job fair here nearly resulted in a riot, they had to shut the thing down in 2 hrs as the crowd became massive.

    The arrival of you/Berk and the Zero has been mysteriously timely.(We'll see, hope I don't get chopped to pieces, don't worry I won't blame you,I take full responsibilty for my actions)

    Keep up the good work and don't let the critics get you down.

    Thanks

  • C.C. Rider

    Not familiar with that formation. What end price target would you infer from that, 945 or 1085? I'm leaning towards targets of NDX 1375, SPX 980, and DOW of 9700.

  • Erikd

    if Roof Top formation completes with hourly close above $SPX above 852 then 945 target is valid area… if formation breaks thru 945 then 1080 would be next target area.. only target that can be targeted with current formation would be 945 area… as other patterns could emerge after 945.. I take it day by day then evaluate weekly..current trends/formations…
    your targets of SPX 980 is in the range… of what i would see as well, if Upside down Roof Top pattern completes…

  • yazzer

    but, the upside down RT may still be forming – that is, maybe there's another down side level to it before it completes….thoughts?

  • yazzer

    or directly to 600 – have you dismissed the yellow track directly to new lows? It looks like, on your chart, that it's still in play…

  • Erikd

    yes, a lower level has good potential… just posted the formation to give Bears a heads up.. as to what might play out…. as i have the Bulls when i see a potential Roof Top formation developing at a top….. always staying flexible and not getting rigid as the market ebbs and flows…

  • Vardoger

    Shorting SRS is one of the scariest plays of all time. Shorting them when they are at 280 is a great trade if you can borrow the shares. Options are expensive up there and the risk of the VIX coming back in make it risky. I was looking at shorting SKF earlier this week but on thinkorswim the shares were hard to borrow and the options were really expensive. CAT could bring the market down Monday with their guidance and I don't want to front-run anything so that's why I spread them. JMHO as always

  • bergs

    Two ways to see the $spx. Orange is alternate.

    http://screencast.com/t/FAqYUpaAc

  • Vardoger

    Didn't we already break the triangle on the SPX @10am to the downside before coming back inside? Isn't it very rare that triangles have more than one fake out?

  • http://yqtrader.blogspot.com/ YQ168

    It seems to me that the possibility of XLF to outperform the markt is soon to be true…

    http://yqtrader.blogspot.com/

  • ablebonus

    I see the new 52 week low and, on a ten year chart, the massive head and shoulders starting in mid-2004. What's your target? That congestion area around 40? FDX is one of the companies I eventually want to go long on at the right time…trading close to book already and a nice duopoloy with DHL gone.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Irrational Exuberance
    http://tinyurl.com/bpmaz2

  • T.B. Aurelius

    ;<)& – – –

  • molecool

    Detroit is rough turf economically – I've recently seen a bunch of documentaries that really concerned me. I do feel for you guys out there….

    I'm glad that the Zero was able to make a difference in yesterday's session. It was actually a pretty tough day and it seems that you took the same trade I did, as you made about the same as me yesterday in that account.

    FYI – I am currently working day & night to re-implement the Zero in NinjaTrader, which will allow me to greatly expand the scope of this indicator. I will be able to back test a myriad of different settings and hopefully even further improve the current trading system. It's a lot of work however and a new environment, so it will take time. In the interim I hope that the current version continues to perform as well as it has recently.

    The only tip I can give you is to know where your stop point is. This is something every trader has decide on his/her own. You might also watch an old fashioned stochastic or MACD so that you don't take entries in short term oversold/overbought conditions. Otherwise you need to be a machine – when you see that entry just take and don't over-think it. The Zero is supposed to cut emotions and doubt out of your trading life. My hope is that it continues working and gains the trust of a majority here, so that in a few months from now we don't worry about a whipsaw day knowing that the system wins in the long term. My vision is to simply ride the market's cow tails without the emotional and intellectual drama most traders have to deal with on a daily basis.

    Wishing you the best of luck out there – please come back to share your experiences.

  • molecool

    1+ for the use of Kagi charts :-)

    I don't completely follow your logic but your price target fits mine pretty nicely. 750 -760 is here I would expect a bounce (if it happens).

  • fuzzygreysocks

    DJIA – Top 8 components
    http://tinyurl.com/dffdxx

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    I'd be happy shorting FDX to about 46 looking at a 10 year / monthly prophet chart.

  • de3600

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123093614987850… now i know how the banks got where they are amazing how you can have a billion dollar company and have the biggest aholes working for you

  • Keirsten

    Here's an add-on for the NOOBs so they can get a sense of things to go along with your charts.

    http://www.indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html

  • GMunni

    That could have been D and it was still within B so the triangle is still valid.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    OH! THANKS, KEIRSTEN!

    I found that chart site a half year ago & then lost it.

    YOU SO ROCK!

  • toad37

    is the first alternative bouncing from where we are now?

  • bergs

    If the count is valid, it would appear a minute wave two is in progress up
    to the range of the previous wave four of lesser degree (858-874). Just too
    many alternatives to say for sure at this point.

    ————————————————–

  • toad 3,7

    Thanks Bergs.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    No, I have not dismissed that. Gold bouncing is making me bullish for 970 -1000 first. I drew the yellow waves after talking to Fujisan http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com/

  • Fujisan

    I don't know where to start – I won’t be able to give you a quick answer to your question without going through the whole lecture of EW basics, but just by looking at your chart, it looks to me that you are forcing the wave count. If you are serious about learning EW, you might like to go through the basic premises of EW. I won’t be able to give you a whole lecture of EW, but here is a quick answer to your question. Yes, everything is possible, but it's not probable for SPX to go straight down to 600 at this point. Aside from EW count, you should also look into time and price alignment as well.

    As a side note, as an option trader, I also look at option open interests to see what the market is trying to do for that particular month, and I have been pretty successful in spotting the exact expiration price of SPY and SPX in the past. Now, I don’t see any big down movement expected in Feb just by looking at SPY and SPX option open interests. Same goes to XLF, XLE, IWM, and QQQQ. XLF and QQQQ seem bullish to me as there are huge call open interests sitting right at $10 and $31. It’s a possibility that the market is coming back to retest 750 level in March, but I don’t see a big down move in Feb.
    Hope this help.

  • etechpartner

    Mole do you need any help w coding ? If there is anything I can contribute I am happy to help.

  • etechpartner

    Dave I totally sympathize. My business has slowed as well and I am having similar ideas as you. I wish you the very best of luck. Go get em (carefully)

  • etechpartner

    I had not had the time to read the comment section thoroughly in a few days and coming back to it I just wanted to point out that its really starting to feel like a good community. So many regulars who support one another, its a nice atmosphere. From Keirston to TB to ErikD and many more. And look at that comment count. This is great !

  • Fujisan

    I re-read my comments below and it did not sound that helpful (and it did not let me edit below comments), so here are my comments once again!

    1. W2 and W4 tends to have the same angle, and so does W3 and W5. Your W4 and W5 are not parallel to W2 and W3 so it looks like you are forcing your wave projection in a yellow line.

    2. W5 normally falls within 60%~100% extension of W3.

    3. W2 should be a very quick short covering rally. Your Yellow W2 seems to be out of place.

    4. There should be mini 5 waves within W3 and W5 and 2 waves in W2 and W4.

    I dont' know if this answers your question, but I tried my best.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    thank you. yes, it does answer and helps a lot. Do you know any quick web link handy where I can brush up on EWaves?

    ________________________________

  • Fujisan

    I'm sure that you already know EWI website, but they won't go through the details of how the wave works unless you sign up for their services/seminars and/or products. I picked up my knowledge by attending seminars and events, and also owning one of those EW softwares, but I learned quickly that those softwares are not as accurate or reliable as they claim to be; i.e., so many times, certain waves were relabled into different wave counts.

    So, instead of worrying about the wave count, I decided that I should be able to trade no matter what the wave count is, as long as I have my trading plan in place.

    I don't speculate as often as you guys do. I am a range-bound trader, specializing in a directional calendar spread. If you trade it well, you can make 50%~100% profit on a monthly basis without taking that much of a risk.

  • Fujisan

    I'm sure that you already know EWI website, but they won't go through the details of how the wave works unless you sign up for their services/seminars and/or products. I picked up my knowledge by attending seminars and events, and also owning one of those EW softwares, but I learned quickly that those softwares are not as accurate or reliable as they claim to be; i.e., so many times, certain waves were relabled into different wave counts.

    So, instead of worrying about the wave count, I decided that I should be able to trade no matter what the wave count is, as long as I have my trading plan in place.

    I don't speculate as often as you guys do. I am a range-bound trader, specializing in a directional calendar spread. If you trade it well, you can make 50%~100% profit on a monthly basis without taking that much of a risk.