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Storm Clouds
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Storm Clouds

by The MoleAugust 18, 2009

9:49pm EDT: Yesterday was an extremely telling day as downside breadth was negative all day and the tape never caught a bid. Also mysteriously the $7 Billion POMO auction never as produced as much as a whimper in the tape and the overnight action was pretty muted. The tape also ‘feels different’ (if you allow me such subjective measure) and the weather seems to have changed. I still think that it’s possible we’ll get one last leg up but if it happens it’ll have to claw itself uphill against 80 mile winds and heavy showers.

The regressive to the downside appears incomplete, so I am expecting at minimum a push into the lower 970s once the early morning head fakes are done sweeping stops. If that doesn’t hold next stop would be 960, but at that point we’re getting fairly close to that lower diagonal which, if breached, would greatly increase the odds that the green scenario might be in play. It’s extremely tough to say at this point, but I’ll keep my eyes peeled.

The Dollar is hanging on so far – which supports the bearish scenarios. Do, I see a little inverse H&S on that thing? Nah, must be my eyes seeing things… 😉

10:20am EDT: Just to be perfectly clear on this – I’m now using every spike to the upside to add to my March puts. Yes, this might only be Minor B of Intermediate (Z) of Primary {2} – but we won’t get final confirmation until it’s way too late, so this is how Homie plays this game now.

12:55pm EDT: What makes me a bit nervous today is the NYSE a/d ratio which is the strongest reading since August 3rd – at least intra-day. It’s possible that I bought yesterday’s March puts at the bottom of B of (Z). However, it’s almost impossible to pick the top here as we’ll see plenty of head fakes before we drop into {3} – so, I decided to hang on and to add to my positions if we rally up.

The Dollar is still hovering around the 79 mark on the DXY – a push towards 80 would be welcome just about now but it’s very much possible we’ll see both the Dollar and equities make new highs in the final leg of Primary {2} – so be cautious about relying on that correlation for your trades.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    Which puts are you buying mole?

  • Vardoger

    Shorting /es. extreme tick sell

  • annamall

    I am staying put (no pun intended) I am putting on 1 trade today for a revised AAPL target of 165 by OPX
    170/165/160 Put BF
    Debit 1.55
    reward if AAPL @ 165 at OPX 3.45

  • bist

    Do you think the treasury sellers have to wait until the settlement date ie today to put the money into the market?

  • annamall

    Looking for Google OPX BF and just a heads up USD is getting pummeled today, so that means equities run higher.

  • rhae

    SPY 30m a lift above adds to support, could be decisive? if not sideways consolidation possible…

  • mmTesla

    Good morning everyone!

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning rats.
    Closed out most longs last night near close(will update in weekend report).
    Currently about 10% long.

    Will not enter any shorts yet – would prefer a late entry in this kind of market.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW32D_Y4Bhg

  • annamall

    Hi MM! DXY getting smacked so equities will go higher, gap fill?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    sweet i bot some F aug 7 calls at the close for scalp hedge, only up 53.2% thus far

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    glad to see it S&P, nice trading!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    3-day settlement for equities and ETFs. So they can put the POMO to work in those right away.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    note – $ISRG, $GOOG very weak

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    POMO are regulated the same as REPOs T+1

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    $SPY W4 confirmed on 3,5,6,10 min $$

  • mmTesla

    Looks like it is setting up to be a fun week! Playing Forex today?

  • annamall

    I am actually closing my final SPY puts here, tape going higher

  • molecool

    You should use rips to start loading up on long term puts – see above. Still locked in short term trading…

  • innatedc

    This is strange….participation is dying quickly here…slow as molasses

  • innatedc

    I'm hoping to see a rip…..where are those POMO funds?

  • annamall

    I am now! LOL

  • TheMacroEconomist

    That “truncated 5th” possibility is the one to watch for next.

    Day job stuff now, bbl.

  • annamall

    Yes dear! LOL I am just scalping in and out of the SPY's

  • OldManRiver

    Record Low PPI

    In a reminder that the current economic situation is far from normal, today's year/year change in the PPI (producer price index) came in at a record low of negative 6.8%. This is the lowest reading for the PPI going back to 1949, easily eclipsing the prior record low of -5.2% in August 1949.

    bespokeinvest.typepad.com

  • eunsuh

    they used half of it at the close yesterday.

  • Iguanadon

    They're using it to go short now. 😉

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “There is a danger of being right for a while…” (ref Anna)

  • annamall

    If we can get to 990 or higher or so I will add puts, now scalping long spy's for a bounce. :)

  • gusrock1414

    You and your opx butterflies. Looks like we may have a day or two of rallying in store before the downturn continues. Cute pic. Sorry I have been absent from the boards. Work has been a mess.

  • Iguanadon

    Oh damn… Mole got the “Yes Dear” response. Guys, we know what that translates to…

    LOL

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    great little band, too bad they might be breaking up

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qf-k3aH3dBo

  • mmTesla

    haha!

  • annamall

    😀

  • annamall

    😀

  • standard_and_poor
  • ennuigo

    Sorry if I am duping this:

    SEC Delays Action on Restricting Short Sales
    Agency Proposes New Approach, Seeks Comment

    By Zachary A. Goldfarb
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Tuesday, August 18, 2009 

    The Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday delayed a decision on whether to put in place new measures to limit short-selling stocks, underscoring the difficulty of pursuing new financial regulations.

    The SEC moved swiftly in April to propose new curbs after executives, investors and lawmakers complained that short-selling helped crater the stocks of banks and other firms at the height of the financial crisis. Short-selling involves a bet that a company's shares will fall, and abundant short-selling can push down the price of a company's shares.

    But four months after releasing its proposals, the SEC has not settled on an approach. The agency has encountered questions about the cost and effectiveness of its proposals, as well as the speed with which they could be put into practice.

    As the SEC and Congress take up a host of new rules this fall to reform financial regulations, these types of questions are likely to resonate further.

    On Monday, the SEC suggested a new approach to limiting short-selling and gave 30 days for the public to comment on it.

    The new SEC approach would only allow traders to bet against a company's shares at a higher price than what other traders are willing to pay to buy the shares. That may slow down the number of short sales occurring.

    Previously, the agency had considered stopping short sales altogether when shares were declining rapidly.

    The agency is likely to pass some limits. The three Democratic-appointees on the commission, including chairman Mary Schapiro, have indicated they support new restrictions. But the two Republicans have voiced serious doubts that the curbs would work.

    “Today's request for additional comment is consistent with the very deliberative process of determining what is in the best interest of investors,” Schapiro said in a statement.

    Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-Del.), who has been pushing for more aggressive actions by the SEC, expressed frustration with the decision.

    “For the markets to have credibility, we need urgency at the SEC to restore a level playing field for investors. The SEC's process to date has been way beyond deliberative behavior,” he said in a statement.

  • onorio

    Hey Mole, if this is the early stages of P3 what`s your target for wave 1 of P3? What long term puts are u loading?

    I`ve been looking at some numbers and im looking for 750 to the end of 1 of P3, wave 2 could take us to +850 so ill guess we`re gonna be stuck arround 750-900 till early next year….if this is already P3.

  • annamall

    Excellent tune Alpha! :) thanks

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    êtes-vous jaloux?

  • eunsuh

    asswipes. leave the markets alone, and enforce the current regulations. I'm sure GS is constructing their latest algorithm to loophole any new SEC “regulations”.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Short STT from 50.23 ..Take this dowwwwwwwwwn

  • standard_and_poor

    I wish everyone whose shorting this market all the best but if this thing picks up renewed momentum with new highs I'm picking up a new set of longs.

  • Woolly Llama

    Mole,

    Ever consider selling front month options against your Mar. puts? If you were able to sell a few months of premium against them, they'd be completely paid off.

  • annamall

    Yes dears….;-D

  • Iguanadon

    Some volume spikes on SPY this morning… unusual looking, at least to this untrained eye.

  • MagikMsu

    Mole, which puts are you buying? I was looking at the March 82's

  • annamall

    Hi Salvador! agreed I am watching the USD and Apple closely.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Do you read his blog at all?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    something to enjoy while paint is drying
    (quite on par with market action)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJ6wEtUm8Nw

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    STT is a great short at this point, its wayyyy off its March lows too. I bet this could see single digits eventually

  • innatedc

    Started my first leg into long term Spy puts….

  • fa_q

    Getting a little short, nothing outrageous or even worth logging. Wouldn't look for longs until we see 95x on the cash and my guess is that will be Thursday. But that's my opinion only.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    and if you fell asleep after last clip or feel really disappointed by your latest trading performance

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSTivVclQQ0

  • innatedc

    Ok gang we are officially below the 250 tick volatility mark….time to do something else…see ya this afternoon.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    any second now – up we go
    http://screencast.com/t/2PjCKxU1oi

  • Iguanadon

    Watched SPX all day sit along 981 line… today it's the 984 line…. Yawn.

  • rhae

    SPY 30m boring… Looking weak so far and unless it can break above the thin rez. line it will probably stay weak… But the market does not always do what I expects. So, I ran a short term bull chart, just for drill… Very subjective..
    http://screencast.com/t/sPiRzZb2Epe

  • Matador11235

    If you go back and read Mole's Sunday post, you will find the answer you seek.

  • Bankrupt

    mole: how convinced are you that P3 has started (in percentage terms)? even prechter admitted that he is often early.

    not that it is impossible but we had only one hard selling day (or should I say night) and it was on light volume too

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    looks liek alpha dog to me

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    RBS says RIMM should get up to $150 lol OK

  • ckeltner

    Clearly, I don't know why everyone hasn't jumped on it~

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    ah-ha…

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    if not today, there are more coming tomorrow

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    they did – they covered RBS from every possible Kamasutra position

  • onorio

    After 25$ maybe

  • rhae

    SPY 30m thin rez. my line 98.89 since yesterday

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Bulls wont give it up easily. IB's are raising their price target on everything with a ticker, they still have shares they need to unload before letting it drop

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I set my alarm clock to SPY 99.32 – time for beauty sleep

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    I tried to post this yesterday but had computer problems (IT dept…grrrr).
    I'm at work and can't post charts right now. I'll try to do a few throughout the day as I get a chance.

    SHORTS:
    GE – Could go bankrupt before this mess is over….unless the gov steps in.
    BAC – Piece of garbage. Although the gov will not allow them to fail completely.
    CAR – No travel, no rental cars…
    CAT – Obama can't save the economy through building roads.
    IBM – A stones throw from all time high.
    TC – Made a huge move off of lows into resistance. Economy will hurt it too.
    AAPL – Doubled since March….really? As the depression sets in, no more iPhone purchases.
    VCLK – If it breaks $9.00, look out below.
    CNQ – Rallied into resistance and oil/ng is done going up IMO.
    SWK – Almost doubled from bottom. Rallied to resistance. Crappy economy will trash it.

  • Iguanadon

    Look back at his weekend post from Sunday. He doesn't think P3 has actually started yet but believes it's close enough to be getting into position.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    for all the ladies!

    anna – you might need to translate for them ;>)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJeh8OSv1dk

  • thelefteyeguy

    purely on a macro sense…stimulus money is starting to roll out…

    in Canada…today marks the first cheques being handed out to infrastructure upgrades.

    in 3-4 months…it could hit the economy in Canada.

    Not sure the time line in the States. I have concerns about the timing of P3

  • Bankrupt

    well that was sunday but if I understand correcly in today's post he thinks that it has started.

  • bshah

    How @ DTG for short ? It's up 1700% since March low… There has been no correction until y'day, it seems.

  • annamall

    God I need a cold shower after that Alpha Sooooo hot!!! 😀

  • MJSgl

    Very close to putting second leg into P3 bear costume…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i aim to please

  • annamall

    Hey Guys, please keep an eye on USD and Apple USD trending lower and Apple higher, usually that means a green day.

  • annamall

    😀 you need loved it!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    this is from that same band, maybe it'll cool you down a bit, called “as the cold rain falls”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuiOsslhe-A

  • annamall

    I love this band! :)

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I'm right with you Anna!

  • annamall

    Yes V8, I closed my remainder of SPY puts early this morning, and went long calls :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Wow about 3 mins ago we had $TICK stay over +1000 for over a minute.

    Did evrybody hit the Buy button at once? 😛

  • Iguanadon

    It's ok to have a green day. I'm fully into TZA now… It just needs to be less green from here. :-)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Im joining that camp

  • Vardoger

    big volume on this 5min /dx bar… someone got really short /es 10 min ago.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    different band you probably know:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_sBOsh-vyI

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i see it stopping at the neckline 992.40

  • annamall

    Ahh nice to have such good company. Just finished my Basmati rice & veggies..hmmmmm good LOL
    healthy

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    15 min SPX
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    look for resistance at either the green trendline around 990-1 or the neckline 992.40

  • annamall

    I may close most spy calls from earlier at 992. . I said I would buy puts if we got to 992.

  • annamall

    Cheaper puts up here Iggy! :)

  • annamall

    yes, that's why I picked up calls earlier this morning. Nice Chart Alpha! :)

  • annamall

    I just ran into Lester, he's on SOH! Hope he fairs well there!

  • onorio

    From yesterday low A=0.6xC @ 989 A=C @ 992

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    That looks good to me as well. I really don't see how anyone but a gambler would buy DTG or CAR at these levels.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    There's the traded-at volume peak around 992 from late last week to provide a target to shoot for.

    992 would also be a 50% retrace of the ES Sunday night drop.

  • LegendC

    TYH – This is the Tech Triple Bull and I expect it to unwind just as fast as FAZ did in March. Buy a couple lottery ticket puts and watch them end up with a 4 digit handle.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Half of me thinks we failed him, the other half thinks he can't be helped.

    *sigh*

  • LegendC

    Spot on so far

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    probably the second half.

  • annamall

    I know! :) Such a good soul though….

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I miss the red day from yesterday already…

  • fuw

    Todays action in spx looks like a bearish wedge.

  • annamall

    Closed my SPY calls @ 990, :-)

  • annamall

    I absolutely agree AG!

  • Anonymous

    Is there an ETF for these car rental places? Its ridiculous how much they’ve gone up…would love to short them all….:0

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    added to my BAC short at its 61.8% retracement 17.06. target price 0

  • rhae

    SPY 60m… my strongest rez. line 99.69 if it can get up there I will probably close my TNA hedge, maybe… see what happens *IF*

  • PeterK80

    Closed my calls… just jumped into DTO (2x inverse USO) again. USO is leaning up against a prior trendline 20 day MA and 50 day MA and S&P is hitting its prior neckline… I think its a GREAT setup

  • annamall

    joining you on that one now! 😀

  • Squidman

    Sheesh, the bad boys always get the pretty girls.

  • molecool

    They want more time for the playaz to get positioned to the short side – it's the retail traders who will mostly be affected by this whenever it hits.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    any1 went short at SPY 99.37?
    (W4 tgt was 99.40)

  • onorio

    Nice trade A :) load some puts?

  • colonel_bleep

    Market getting props from GS & AXP upgrades, along w/ HD #'s. GS punching into intraday highs right now.

  • AS2009

    Alpha – is this a swing trade … am curious why you think this is a good short …

    I hold Sept 17 BAC calls – hence would really appreciate your opinion … I see the tgt for this as 18 with minor resistance at 17.35 …

  • Rd99Hse1

    damn, their bid-ask ratio is so bad – practically makes it double the risk.
    i see what you mean though…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    my opinion a nice time to short some silver if you haven't already, wave v might be beginning

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • annamall

    waiting for a retest O…:)

  • molecool

    Nice – thanks mate.

  • molecool

    Are you reading tea leafs? Where did I say that?

  • Vardoger

    shorting /qm

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    closed my overnight longs at ES 985 and started scaling into Sep puts – no more Aug puts for me. Target is SPX 870 before Sep opex.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    mixing time frames is dangerous. Dont base a long term trade off a short term signal….

  • onorio

    Man you`ve been on fire with your targets +1

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    *your* W4 target was 99.40 – so possibly you would have gone short there…

  • nugent

    Just curious, besides Mole and I, has anybody else started to slowly scale into March/June puts also?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    you might get lucky with sept calls if we get the final push up to complete P2 as most people believe. i'm expecting it to get ugly in the OCT-April time frame.

    here are some charts on BAC with my count. now they could obviously be wrong, we might be due a final push, it's your call. regardless even under the most bearish count, it's about to enter wave v of 1 down and should see a sizeable wave 2 retrace that will offer the opportunity to reduce your position if you choose

    BAC daily:
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    BAC 60 min:
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    BAC 15 min:
    http://screencast.com/t/zj0Qb0lybGU3

    hope this helps

  • MJSgl

    I just bought some March SPY puts a few min ago, and also bought some yesterday.

  • thunda72

    I'm looking into it. I'm also looking at Dec puts as they are significantly less expensive (about half the price). I'll probably get some in the next couple days as things top out.

  • Bankrupt

    Yes, this might only be Minor B of Intermediate (Z) of Primary {2} – but we won’t get final confirmation until it’s way too late

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    cool, don't know if you saw this one down below:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_sBOsh-vyI

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I was sleeping :(
    but I will (most likely) go short /nq at qqqq 39.10 area

  • annamall

    to me that is much better as it moves faster Thunda, March just too slow for this girl! 😉

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I'm taking decembers

  • annamall

    Trying to put on a MA 190/200/210 OPX call spread, the debit is about 5.00 but the reward if it lands @ 200 by Frday you double your money, minus some commissions, but it is a trade that will likely play out.

  • bist

    I've been buying BAC on dips the past few weeks. Recently I've been buying around 16.5 and selling 17-17.5 range. Like you I see 17.35-17.4 as resistance. I think it'll take a strong upward move in the market for BAC to break that level. I don't think BAC can breach that level on it's own.

  • AS2009

    Hi Alpha – thanks for the info … am not great at EW – still a newbie .. but from what I see

    15 min – we could be starting 5th wave down …..
    60 min – we could be starting another 5 wave up after the ABC correction is complete
    Daily – basically markes 17.45 as resistance

    Am I reading this right ? I have a tiny account, so do not have the stomach to trade through a major retracement … hence, will appreciate your insight into what to watch for to signal either a big push down (i.e. I get out and wait to reenter) or a move up for me to keep trailing my stops against … TIA :)

  • thunda72

    That's not to say that I won't get some Mar puts as well. Things will be in the toilet after the new year….

  • ablebonus

    As Amgrant points out in his blog, the problem with puts is they are already priced for armageddon. Looking at the 1929-1933 chart someone posted here yesterday and Hochberg put in the ST update last night, given the 2+ years it took from the 1930 high to the 1932 low, I'm having a hard time finding puts I like.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Took profit on my long scalps. I am done for the day, will await 3:30 pm action now. No need to dive in at this point into anything IMO

  • Me_XMan

    Looking for SDS $46.25 support or SPX 993.

  • AS2009

    What price puts are people looking at for Dec / Mar ?

  • LegendC

    Put your limit close to the bid and walk your way up.

  • annamall

    I am with you Candle. Good job! :-)

  • MJSgl

    So far Mar SPY 65s is what I have been buying.

  • fa_q

    I just bought some Aug and Sept's

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    that's about it, my play is for the late fall/winter. if i'm fortunate enough to get to short this above 20, i'll do it with everything i have

  • bdf72

    Hey Mole,
    I have been in Dec and Jan SPY puts expecting an intermediate move. Currently under on these but took the position not wanting to miss the big leg down. Drawn down was not a real concern even thought it freakin sux to see. Are you seeing this next intermediate move possibly to March as a hedge? Been thinking of moving them to March at the bottom of this current move to March SPY's. I got tired of daytrading and wanted to sit back and let the market come to me. Some people do well at it like Anna (she freakin rocks!) but I know my strengths and weaknesses and trade accordingly.

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    Ill be looking to short /ES at 991 and then 995 (200ema hourly is now 994.5ish)

    Chart from last night:
    http://screencast.com/t/jMunrRZMK

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I guess I'm the only one holding my longs hahah

  • innatedc

    I'm liking IBM's Jan 10 85 puts at 1.00…..

  • Me_XMan

    You're not the only one. Plenty of people like you and about to get…

  • innatedc

    My plan is to slowly add to spy puts long term while making money on spy calls short term….working beautifully so far..I'm locked in 10% profits on this spy call now….at least.

  • MJSgl

    True, but this way you can buy, hold, and (pretty much) forget about 'em for a while. Like Mole said in his Sun post, forget perfect timing… whether you buy a put at .80, 1.00, or 1.20, does it really matter when 10.00+ is the ultimate target?

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    been building positions in puts for 3 weeks now….slowly build it up is my style.

  • Me_XMan

    Nice.

  • peder1001

    got some bac puts for nov

  • AS2009

    OK – makes me feel a lot better… was wondering if I was missing something really big here …

    If we do get a wave 5 up i.e. 60 min chart .. what are tgts based on EW ?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Everything on my watch list is pretty well in the green except XOM

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    ES looks to be topping out IMO

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Channel for OPX week….

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

    and the SPY ascending wedge with a couple of interesting lines thrown in for shits and giggles..

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I was holding onto a few longs, but got out on today's strength.

    We have to see 970 before we possibly see 1000 again IMO

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Mole: what strike price are the March SPY puts that you have bought?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    It is time for ES to visit the VWAP at 984 at a minimum

  • ckeltner

    Vix at 26 is hardly pricing in armageddon. First, vix while often referred to as the fear factor works in both ways. It is typically lower in bull markets because bull markets typically grind up. But lets assume for a moment it points to the market going down and that the vix is right that we will see a 26% annualized decline over the next year, that puts us around 740, a higher low and nothing near armageddon.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    add about $6 to the bottom once one's in

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Channel for OPX week….

    and the SPY ascending wedge with a couple of interesting lines thrown in for shits and giggles..

    and if interested a new rant, this one actually pertains to stocks…kinda http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Holding longs, but picked up some August IWM puts just in case

  • mrclam

    I don't see them being priced for armageddon at all….1.35 debit on a SPY 70? If it gets anywhere near that you could easily see 20-30 returns….

  • annamall

    I am long a few V8, but still hedged on the downside aka BAC, WFMI.
    watching to see where we end up today before jumping off a cliff.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    bought some sep vix 30 calls

  • annamall

    ditto :=)

  • thunda72

    I think he was looking at 65 and 70… at least that's what was on the post;.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    good r/r

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    will start /ES SPY June10 puts at SPX 1040-1060 4 weeks from now

  • innatedc

    Would love that camp…..more opportunities in that camp…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    ES might have topped out for the day – http://screencast.com/t/AClRZ6TFSsT8

  • rhae

    SPY 30m, ok times zup… I do not see anything bearish yet. But the 30m is a little slow for devout scalpers… could they pull a sneaky and continue to run up to the strong resistance. a fresh fib time 1.272 @ .618 bounce… I will give it a zone 99.50 to 99.69.

    It could crumble here, I dunno, just lines….
    http://screencast.com/t/IHfNGxTl6JFx

  • Tronacate

    Gergeous looking wolfewave on the ES 30 min…..target 970ish or below

  • innatedc

    Love that camp too…..more opportunities in it…..

  • innatedc

    99.69 would fill the gap…..

  • molecool

    You are allowed to say assfucked here – it's not the Internet, it's EvilSpeculator.

  • Iguanadon

    Damn VIX is still hitting intraday lows…

  • innatedc

    Trail stop hit….I'm out.

  • Keirsten

    TICK is trending down (for now)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    IMO VIX lags – by what amount – not sure… if we start moving down… look for VIX to start catching up.

    But given the big move in VIX yesterday, 15% up.. very likely VIX will end the day in red unless we get a major dump

  • isaiah64v4

    Relative Volume low across the board

    http://finviz.com/

    Maybe they are going to take out the stops before running it. Today and the next 2 days are POMO days.

  • bshah

    What do you guys think on GS (160 ) sep Puts ? Currently at $6.50 price.

  • AS2009

    Closed my Sept 17 BAC Calls … bear flags all over … and multiple hits of resistance without breaking out …

  • Anonymous

    Anna–

    You may be right on that gap fill. DeMark guy over on Minyanville (Kevin Depew) says this morning that if SPX closes above 990.85 today, then opens at ALL higher tomorrow, with ANY kind of a new intraday high following that, will trigger a TD Propulsion Up Exhasution move to 1003.18…which’ll pretty much close that gap. If happens all I can say is….you got GREAT instincts.

  • AS2009

    BAC having a lot of trouble staying over 17 … now hitting against that level from below … and not being able to break it …. will look for a better entry … took my profits for now …

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Looks like another leg up on ES is coming..

    Regardless, GOOG is going to get pinned to 440 (max pain for Aug expiry) – on a day when NQ is up 1% and all tech names are flying high, GOOG is barely moving … clear indication that it is going down to 440 by opex.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    did you expect exciting action in w4?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    This move up is fake – much lower volume

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am in sep 155 puts

  • tgarfield

    Could someone who knows options tell me that I have this right.

    IF I sell the 14 XLF put and buy the 14 call – I have no downside risk even if XLF drops? I could execute the call to cover the put if XLF dropped? I'm I missing something here? IF XLF goes up, or if the debit difference is positive then I win – correct?

  • Vardoger

    NO

  • wex

    you would have a synthetic long position. If stock declines below $14 then put is ITM against you. You would have no incentive to exercise the then OTM call as you could buy stock cheaper.

  • stxinon

    where are bears when I need them….
    looks like another green day for bulls….

    someone short something….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    but it is still a move up, right? :)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Oil is a beautiful short here – seems to have gone parabolic

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    don't do it … you are risking more capital then you are exposing and if XLF drops you have double losses.

    What is it that you are trying to do? There are options strategies for SOOOO many scenarios and price and time plays. The key to options is doing it correctly and understanding all the variables that affect the option price.

    Sorry to say this

    “When it comes to options, if you have to ask – don't do it”

  • Keirsten

    Looks like a little backtest of the broken intraday TL started at the low yesterday afternoon. A pop over that, and I might blink. Otherwise… Zzzzzzzzzz.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    can I question that ?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    What in the world is w4?

  • Keirsten

    Yezzzzzz. Did you reload on puts at your target earlier?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    watchign w4 to end on sell signal, probably another 15-20 minutes

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    oh, that is d-wave woo-doo :)

  • ropey

    There is always risk. If you are on TOS, run it through the risk profile graph and you'll see.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Looking at the OI in both SPY & QQQQ, I have a very hard time seeing any big down move before opex.

    We might make a quick move to 970 and the back up… to pin SPY to 98. And any big move down will happen only after opex. IMO, the big down day might be tomorrow.

  • Keirsten

    Okay. I'm skipping the cubes this round and going after the RUT and SPY instead. I really, really, REALLY like that tail on the cubes daily candle right now though.

  • bullethead

    Agreed – Been scaling in, needs to turn here

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    of course – this is a discussion in eternal pursuit of making money (I'll be happy to be wrong and I often am, more often than other good traders I observed :)

  • rhae

    wolfwaves are kool

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    did I get your “20char” right?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    that was one hell of a bad tick

  • PRSGuitars

    Almost positive that's a bad trade/fat fingered order… just saying!

    What strikes for RUT? I'm having a hard time seeing a great put deal (save for a small directional play for the last real wave lower for hte time being)…

    Hope your vacation went well!

  • innatedc

    MLMT- check this chart of USO….I had that trendline drawn in awhile back (perfect touches)…what are your thoughts as to when to short? Thanks….

    http://www.screencast.com/users/innatedc/folder

  • annamall

    Hi all, I am back! Still think we are going to fill that gap down from yesterday soon. Just saying….

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Dip buyers successfully retrained. Taking smaller short ES position here 989.50. Will Exit end of day.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    New ES highs not confirmed by IWM, XLF

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    You are mostly short – right? Doesn't that conflict with gap fill scenario .. because still majority of that gap is to be filled

  • Keirsten

    affirmative. :-)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Down almost 1% from the highs already

  • Keirsten

    Thanks, it was a nice weekend PRS. I bought IWMUX for this little run.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    QQQQs made a new high – but none of AAPL, RIMM, AMZN, GOOG, BIDU made a new high recently

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The goose is cooked IMO – no gap fill

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Added 25% more shorts at ES989 – 75% of what I had decided to allocate to short positions deployed at this point

  • annamall

    That is called a synthetic short position and if you can't borrow shares you can short this way
    Subject to a pin risk, (it goes nowhere) :)

  • annamall

    No I am not. I am almost all long still, have WFMI put spread and BAC put BF

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Couple of tropical storms form out in the Atlantic and oil traders get nervous. But nothing heading to the Gulf yet.

  • annamall

    famous last words! LOL

  • mrclam

    Long I think anna :)

  • TheCrowe

    Anna,
    May I hear more about your analysis on AAPL and your 165 OPX target? Are there technical cues you are noticing?

    I am seeing max-pain well below today's price (fwiw) + yesterday's gap down pointing to a move toward lower support (50d MA or the two tags @ 135ish in June/July) rather than higher prices.

    Of course, you are yoda. I am jar-jar.

    Richard
    No position in AAPL, currently.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    SLV looks to have completed wave iv, if my count is right we should see silver begin its 5th leg down

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • isaiah64v4

    How about some late afternoon stats…. Volume is looooooow…

    http://finviz.com/

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • annamall

    Hi Crowe, mine for OPX is it's in a bullish trend, the monthly MACD just turned the weekly still up and the daily still pointing up, it may be touch or pin @ 170 by OPX, but my gut tells me 165. thats pretty much it plain and simple, 😉
    only has about a 1.00 to go, so I am may rethink that to 170. I am not chasing that BF though, too far gone now.

    Yoda and Jar Jar I like that! 😀

  • onorio

    Add some more puts @ 989.5

  • TheCrowe

    Thank you for taking the time to reply. I don't follow MACD much, but maybe I should. I'll be following. Best of luck!

  • TraderWannbe

    I thought so too but got stopped out.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    IWM & XLF putting in lower highs continually – each time ES hits a new high

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yes short put and long call = synthetic long stock.

    Positive delta with unlimited upside (on the call) and downside (on the put).

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    No I don't think they are pricing in Armageddon at this point. If that was the case you'd see them priced much, much higher. However, the prices of the way OTM SPY puts are pricing in PART of that which is why you've seen the VIX hold its ground.

    There's a reason the VIX has not fallen while the indexes have risen. People are locking in gains and/or protecting themselves in the event all hell breaks loose again and those bids are keeping the VIX up at the 24/25 level.

    Options are priced off probabilities so when you buy these very far OTM puts you're effectively buying the tail end of the distribution curve. It's a bet that we're going to get another 5-6 std deviation move over the next year. Tell me, what are the probabilities of two crashes in two years??? It's NOT very high at all as you can imagine and from a trading perspective it's an absolutely gamble.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    LOL LOL LOL – this sense of humor besides the intelligent crowd is what keeps me here.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I still believe that the goose is cooked… we should see SPX 970 tomorrow and 930 next week

  • denisehubbard

    GOOD NEWS!!! There is finally a great new movie out about stock market manipulation, the SEC, and short selling called: “Stock Shock.” For those of us that want to understand some of the inner workings of the market, it is a must-see. Very easy to understand and entertaining. Amazon has it or stockshockmovie.com has a trailer.

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    975 < still unfilled ES gap from 7/29 + http://screencast.com/t/ZuOQMSTcqz

  • standard_and_poor

    Bravo!
     
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPsdlso6-X8

    ________________________________

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I already shorted it today.. near 36.91 – sep puts – not much upside remaining IMO

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  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I already shorted it today.. near 36.91 – sep puts – not much upside remaining IMO

    ________________________________