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Summertime
49

Summertime

by The MoleJuly 24, 2017

Alright, it’s time to talk about the ole’ greenback. Which, in case you haven’t been paying attention whilst increasing your odds of skin cancer at some overpriced beach resort, has been dropping rather precipitously since the beginning of the year. You may counter that a correction was long overdue since the Dollar has had a pretty good run over the past two years. And you would be technically correct – in relative terms compared with everything else the Dollar has been on a solid run since mid 2014. But in real purchasing power today’s Dollar is a whopping 27% weaker than when Will Smith’s big hit was hitting the charts in the summer of 2002.

Which means what you were able to buy for $1 back in 2002 will cost you roughly $1.37 today. Heck, I don’t know about you but this crusty old market mole considers a loss of 1.8% per year pretty shocking and only permitted to occur as most people are either bad at math or simply don’t understand the concept of compounding. In other words inflation is a hidden tax on the stupid and the rest of us are simply being dragged along into the dark abyss of fiat insolvency.

2017-07-24_dollar_LT

More immediately it’s not looking good for the Dollar either. On the daily panel we are now facing an acceleration to the downside with no bottom in sight. The only soft support range on my radar is that 100-week lower Bollinger near 92, which quite frankly has very little credibility as it hasn’t been tested for a long time.

2017-07-24_USD

And it doesn’t exactly help that our bearish P&F price objective has been met one and a half handles ago. Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic seem to be comfortable about the current situation with the Fed continuing its stealth QE initiatives and Mario Draghi apparently having been kidnapped by the Germans and replaced by an engineered clone featuring hawk DNA.

2017-07-24_spoos_VOL

Equities of course have been benefitting but we started to see lackluster buying participation starting Thursday going into Friday. We’ll have to see whether or not this continues today or if buyers are ready for another round higher. I recommend you keep a close eye one the Zero today.

2017-07-24_spoos_update

I’ve just tightened my trailing stop on the current E-Mini campaign to below a recent double bottom on the hourly which also coincides with the 100-hour SMA. The daily is looking like a trend candidate (consolidation near the upper BB) and we may be actually hitting acceleration higher here.

Campaign Updates

2017-07-24_GBPUSD_update

Bad news first – well at least not so good news. Cable did stop me out last Friday at about 1R, so it hasn’t been a complete waste of time and resources. Of course since then it has made a u-turn and I’m pretty sure it’ll just keep running from here. Lesson learned: Even the best campaign management rules are futile if a symbol goes spasmodic.

2017-07-24_soybeans_update

Soybeans still in the running but has reverted to our entry range. I’m not touching this one for now as there frankly isn’t any reason plus the lower hourly BB is starting to head higher. Ergo, the fat lady hasn’t sung here yet.

2017-07-24_bonds_update

Fortunately bonds continue to head higher and I’m now advancing my trailing stop to below 154.1, locking in about 1R (we had to pick a pretty wide ISL for obvious reasons). This one is looking pretty good and with the Dollar on suicide watch it may just trigger a massive short squeeze here.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Mary

    TSLA now heading for the original gap?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Are you referring to a gap dated 2013 ?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Is it me or has Evil Speculator turned into a regular lady magnet now? Must be my new perfume…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    By the way if you’re holding Yen today, be aware of potential volatility later tonight. The rate decision has been made but the notes are being released.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95e4c46833a6d50068fe815f20a5a395b333144bff808b3055e2e6a909f892b3.png

  • Mary

    No. There was a gap down on 7/5 and another the next day 7/6. The second one has already been filled.

  • BobbyLow

    We also have a Fed Rate Announcement on Wednesday. I’m still holding a long gold position via UGLD with my stop set at +1R. If I don’t get stopped before, I’ll be out by the COB tomorrow and see what it looks like after the announcement.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    No question its presently heading there so that answers your question.
    Real question is if it will.
    Where one accepts and buys into the complacent environment, which is the only trend, and which trend is supported by longer term technical supports, one stays long.
    Personally, I don’t buy into the nature of the environment unless using much shorter technical tools. By that I would not be long at this moment, but short….with a very close stop reversing to long ….if I were trading it in the first place.

  • ridingwaves

    gold and silver opex on Wednesday to boot

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders – the most famous of which is “never get involved in a land war in Asia” – but only slightly less well-known is this: “Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line”!

  • Mark Shinnick

    :) Thank goodness for market liquidity.

  • Julie

    Gold Gerb Hey GG Not gonna miss this one … AG The breakout or the pullback. The Macd is coiling. Price between 21 and 55 ema’s convergence. Resistances (1) 8.15 (2) 8.47 Support at 7.90 Playing it on the daily chart i.e. bearish close below 7.90 a short with target previous support approx 7.17 The previous decline June 27 to July 7 was 3 cents below the 1.414 fib extension of June 19 to JUne 27
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8192e83bdd11b672fea95bbf264f11133912053e798c223a1243f981e8664eb6.jpg

  • Julie

    GG Bring on the Black Schrodinger’s cat .. That was hilarious … Great sense of humor here. LOL !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    to carry on post theme…
    UPDATED U.S. stock market could get powerful tailwind from weaker dollar: Morgan Stanley

    makes me think a rip your face off short rally is getting near….my bet is 92 area …I don’t think I would be short at that juncture..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thanks, at least I’m good for something.

    FYI – seek greener pastures, watching this will be disappointing.
    A total milk dud IMHO.

    http://www.candywarehouse.com/assets/item/large/milk-duds-snack-size-packs-126114-w.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what’s the risk reward? – big guy..

  • Julie

    GG Watching BAC must have a strong close above 23.92
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Yeah…something smells…

  • Ronebadger

    ohh, it’s me…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    RSI at 48? wouldn’t take much to trap the bears.
    just remember sister, BAC & the Banking Index are tied at the hip.
    fade the news.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75176490247

  • Julie

    GG I pointed out several times that $BKX mirrors BAC
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    From a chartist’s POV I agree because we’ve arrived in the target zone of a measured move set off since mid-May. As with “lifetime” Yellen, nothing we hear from the vested financial complex is going to be very undermining to retail confidence. Other thing, too, is a weaker $ would not be supported by the Deep State attack upon Trumps America.

  • ridingwaves

    I don’t know but the reward after 92 might be measured, the issue is the red circle rip your face off short squeeze history…why not do it again?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/659c226795084d077d7e91a91a6ae6090bd78100817cbe7ee32e1042b678e7d3.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, and in June 2013…something similar, as a snapback.

  • Julie

    XOM I may make a trading range play (long) Support (1) 80.00 (2) 79.44
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da9c9a3ddf09978ddf1df7456e03cde3b18477cb7f3a899c77839eb879de5704.jpg

  • Julie

    EXAS strong support 38.18 and today an intraday reversal I would like to see it come down to 36.93 — 37.37 for an entry. Unsure of a breakout
    JULIE

  • Julie

    CAT 108.89 is my stop on the remaining 1/2 position short. Have 50 shares SDS short probe and up 6 bucks. LOL !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    exas ??? Is this a direct reflection of USD$ ?

  • ridingwaves

    CALA could move pretty fast abv 16.22
    still big money flow into IBB and XBI… which is sweet

  • Julie

    CALA I have done great ….. Probably saw it same time as you Riding Waves
    JULIE

  • Julie

    No Mark EXAS is a stock that Riding Waves has done great with and I have been following it also. It is a Bio
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    RW, too much info on year plus chart.

    SWITCH to weekly.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t expect any surprises – seems CBs on both sides are comfortable with the status quo.

  • Julie

    Yahoo Finance “BMO Thinks CAT Could Double In Price” Anything for a short squeeze ! Unreal !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok. 92 on the PnF.
    next month.
    (GG points to the fence line like a boss)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/760f44a672b92d857ebd1bf13a65982ced1ef667e5524cb4e54ad92fff5fbe8a.png

  • Julie

    $SPX minor consolidation looks like it will go higher Have short probe SDS (50 shares) against Thursday’s high and will retain. Covered remaining 1/2 short position CAT as it reports tomorrow before the bell. Made a little on short. $NDX possible 6000 upside potential Thursday? Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day !
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s usually the time to get out.

  • Julie

    Exactly Mole Thanks !
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s like today when I read some German news (I speak the language) how Christine Lagard and her cronies are predicting the European economy to explode higher today. Hint – there are German elections coming up this fall. Probably another reason why they’re pointing the Euro higher, the Germans love a strong currency.

    I think we’ll be seeing a strong Euro until September 24, after which it’ll drop like a rock.

  • Julie

    GG BAC Triangulating on the intraday charts. Not convinced it will go higher yet. I still think it will go down to 89 ema or upper boundary of ichimoku cloud. Above 24.12 will be above daily 8 conversion line and upper triangle trend line and a minor resistance
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Put a short on the /NQ @ 5925

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’m working on a new post but it’s taking me longer than anticipated.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    told ya. 😉
    I have no EDGE. Muwahahaha.

    a broken clock is correct twice a day. and I thoroughly take advantage of it.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b432ad1e52ec10a13673239fc53e582b6762308b1f4b31754df55e2496d252a8.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Mrs. Mole interruptus.
    I get it.
    😉

  • Julie

    Good call GG BAC above 24.12. I had no position and it did resolve to the upside. Stopped out of SDS short probe
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Mole should be so lucky…

  • Julie

    gg UUP Monthly chart. coming down to upper boundary of ichimoku cloud ; 55 ema ; lower channel trend line Horizontal blue lines are support levels
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aaf9268b30a68d0e314f23dce31a35eac3b65c4846b3f8f78a87547d129d2796.jpg

  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    It’s a range trade, you should leave the clouds at the door.

    https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2013/04/16/Learn_Forex_USDCAD_Ichimoku_Buy_Signal.html

    Unequivocally, Ichimoku is best used in Trending markets. If you apply Ichimoku to a range bound market, you will often get a signal to enter a Buy trade as the market is about to return to the bottom of the range or vice versa. Trying to force a trend out of a clear range is extremely frustrating and is also a sure fire way to drain your trading capital.
    -GG