Sunday FX Update

In my Friday post I told my subs to watch the AUD/JPY on Sunday afternoon with possible implications on the spoos opening later this evening:

Admittedly a lot can happen between now and Monday 9:00am EDT, but clearly we have NLBL that has thus far proven to be resistant. If you are short equities right now then that NLBL could serve you well as a hedge threshold.

Based on what I’m hearing out of Europe this weekend I devote this post to Germany – soon to be renamed the EU Charity Fund:

Of course I do have a few more charts for the subs:

Let’s zoom out first. About a month ago I mused about a possible repeat of the summer 2008 action over in the Dollar index. And until we see 73 breached that possibility remains – so far the pattern seems eerily similar. In order to increase the odds for a long term bearish case what we want to see toward the end of the summer is a steady push higher on this chart. In other words – Mr. Bucky needs to complete its flooring process and finally get out of the gate.

More short term cable may be able to overcome its 25-day MA and push toward 1.66. Until we clear the 1.64 mark it’s possible we’ll see a retest of the 1.63 mark, which should now serve as support.

Very short term on the hourly 1.639 represents the current NLBL and ideally should hold and provide a base for a push toward 1.64.

EUR/JPY is moving fast and the hourly chart already looks a bit differently by the time you read this. The daily 112.92 NLBL thus far has been rejected and on the hourly we’re bumping against the 25-MA. Maybe a possible short opportunity which would be confirmed by a drop below 112.4.

That’s all I got for now – see you guys on the other side.

Cheers,

Mole

This entry was posted on Sunday, July 24th, 2011 at 5:57 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • Anonymous

    I’m long the U.S. Dollar.
    I was early, but if, or when,
    this spikes up. 
    Look for 79 and then 82.
    At 73.35 I’m out for a loss.
    Nice work Mole pointing that out.
      

  • http://thebhbgroup.com TheBHBgroup

    gold is the best performing asset…no wonder there.  ES should tank more than 25 points in order for me to believe this is a real correction and not just more of this range trading of 1250-1350 for the summer.  If we get a real 25+ down move on the es on the session then i am all in short for a range breakdown.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wow, it’s busy in here today ;-) 

    I guess everyone is either at the beach or in an air-conditioned mall.

  • Anonymous

    We are all actively chatting – just in the older posts ;)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What – in 2009?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    woo-hoo, I’m an sub.
    it’s was just a matter of time before I was grandfathered in.

    IMHO, the USD is a repeat of the Spring of 08, right before the descent into Summer of 08. :-)

  • Anonymous

    Very original opinion. Now, can we focus on ’09? ;)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Damn, only took you two years! ;-)

  • Anonymous

    Financials look to be taking another hit with the exception of IRE, long since .88. Will be reducing position today.

  • Kudos

    t-note short looking good so far. Is it a win-win as I see it? Patchwork fix to debt cieling, U.S. gets downgraded and yields go up first from the fact that the world isn’t melting down then they keep going up as the credit profile of the U.S. gets worse. Scenario 2 is that they get the complete package and we still go up to 3.15-3.20+ on the 10YR as the world isn’t ending and then who knows from there. My target is about 122-000 through 122-100

    edit: Maybe I mean win-win-win. Scenario 3, nothing happens for a day or two and we reach 3.15-3.20 by tomorrow as the market tries to send a signal to congress. Scenario 3 is my least preferable as it is the least sustainable and I would cover much faster.

    I prefer scenario 2 as a citizen of the U.S. My trading account prefers scenario 1 which involves credit spreads tightening for a few weeks and no reason to cover my t-note short.

  • Anonymous

    Had big plans for this week. My last vacation week and I was gonna trade, party and date a nice girl.

    But the terror here in Norway has made me just sit in shock and watch tv news, read the Internet and lose the optimism and sparkle that I have been known for. I know time will heal, but it just feels very dark right now. Hope the big gathering in the city centre will help the healing process, but it will take time.

    Sorry for going off topic in this trading blog, but just felt for letting people know how we feel here after the terrorist massacre. The city is just weird. Oslo has never been more quiet, and the warmth I see and feel on the streets is awesome. That is giving me hope.

    Thanks for listening.

    PS. Please don’t discuss politics and derail this fine trading blog more.
    Thanks.

  • Anonymous

    No problem. My heart goes out to you and your country. Hang in there.

  • Anonymous

    First 15 Minutes and the Banksters are sucking wind but AAPL, NFLX and GOOG are another story.   They look to be trying to save the morning buying the Oilers as well.  

  • bshah

    it’s ridiculous to see high bid almost every second for AAPL and GOOG, as if someone is behind it deliberately with big difference amt to push it high… Same goes for CMG.. 100K or less volume and $4 move to +ve … F..k them all seriously..  There is no fair trading..

  • bshah

    does anyone in market or in DC care even if country get to default state.. market is going high and that’s inevitable.. really, jokers are just wasting millions on debating and putting out PRs, where they know that no side is going to let go on their agendas on making easy money.. 

  • Anonymous

    This is pretty much all about appealing to their own respective political base and making sure that they get themselves reelected.  Whether we go into default remains to be seen but I have my doubts that will happen.  There will probably be some last minute Kum Ba Ya moment where the “Friends from each side of the isle”  hold each others pecker” and brag about how they saved the country.  

    But most importantly regarding trading within the Casino, this is all Bull Shit.  It is also why I try to block out the MSM, ZH, Mish, and talking heads everywhere.  
     If I wasn’t involved with this market, this would all make great theater.  And if I used what people write or say or even what I see with my own eyes regarding “the economy” to influence what I do in the short term in this casino, I would be totally screwed.  Emotion would take over and that’s one thing the casino counts on.    BTW, shortly after the open, I could see GOOG, AAPL, NFLX along with the Oilers being bought and that was enough to tell me that maybe we sell off later in the day but it wasn’t going to happen right now.   JMNSVHO 

  • labdude

    “Friends from each side of the isle”  hold each others pecker”

    There will be a run on forceps in the DC area.

    Sorry–had to “unlurk” for this.

    Back to lurking.

  • Kudos

    Well that a breif fun little F* you to those short treasuries, was a great shorting opportunity if you weren’t already short.

    CBOT raised requirements on treasuries today. Fun.

  • Anonymous

    I think we’re right in the middle of a wave B of and ending diagonal 3 right here. Today we should be up, then tomorrow would be a down day completing the wave B.  Tomorrow at the close would be the time to go long for new highs.

    Short today’s close and go long tomorrow’s is my call.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Then don’t trade those – I rarely do these days – too much hype.

  • Anonymous

    Or, beginning of wave 3, after wave 2 peaked at 1347 ….. or not

  • Anonymous

    Going to short at gap fill, 1/2 position.

  • Anonymous

    holding 1/4 position IRE, it’s on fire right now:0

  • Anonymous

    may the Zero be with you…

  • Anonymous

    Close enough, stop at 1347.25.

  • Anonymous

    Minnie Wedge on today’s ES

  • Anonymous

    Looks like bear flag

  • Anonymous

    It doesn’t look like a motive wave down. XLE, AAPL, IBM also don’t support this as a wave 3.  You would think they would be the main participants in a large wave 3 down.

  • Anonymous

    Christmas lines on the chart…just what I was thinkin’

    Dollar building a 3-day floor at 74?

  • TwinTurboRX7

    Mole,
    Where is the NLSL? Did we went thru it this morning and bounce above it?

  • Anonymous

    Reid disseminating crap @ 2:30. Ought to get lively then, question is which way?

  • bshah

    so now even Reid and every house/senate member can speak and influence market hunh… cool aid..
    just kidding btw.. absolutely interesting if mkt really goes up when he comes out and says “yes we have a deal”..

  • Anonymous

    We all know it’s set up, GS is properly positioned…….

  • Kudos
  • Anonymous

    yes! HS alert!

  • Kudos

    Out the rear with 90% certainty. 

  • bshah

    what the fu.. is with AAPL man..?

  • Anonymous

    Last to buy maybe:)

  • Anonymous

    it retested its high, nothing out of ordinary.

  • Anonymous

    This trade is looking pretty good for you.   Looks like you’re still on a good roll.  :)

  • Anonymous

    Shorted NFLX as well, it is time!

  • Anonymous

    US will not default. As for ratings it does not mean much. What is the rating for Japanese bonds and what is their interest rates?

  • bshah

    and… can we now take the lows ? or atleast go to 350 range.. so i can go long..

  • Anonymous

    you can short it.

  • Anonymous

    Pink lottery HDUP;)

  • Anonymous

      I know news does not matter but I have to say that I can not remember a Stock Market more Complacent than this one.  

  • bshah

    i am my friend.. and it’s sweating me off.. my ass is wet right now.. but i can’t stand up… or else everyone here at work place will make fun … 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    meh.
    IMHO July 5 & 6 were flatter. 
    and that was 2+ days! ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Damn it – stop out. Bummer – HS not liking the tape in the past week.

  • Anonymous

    it looks alright. retested the top, rejected, now on its way down. high probability trade, at least for now.

  • bshah

    u goddamn insider.. well congrates skynard.. are u in puts or real stock..? BTW, is AAPL / GOOG / CMG in ur radar ? 

  • Anonymous

    To much shake out although like seeing the signal to help justify my calls.

  • Anonymous

    In puts and IMO will see 210 by end of Aug. Not much into tech although it will lead the way down;)




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