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Surprise 9.0
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Surprise 9.0

by The MoleMay 20, 2009

9:41am EDT: Motherplucker!! The equities market has devolved into one massive drive by shooting game. The insiders are using tax payer funds to run raids on hapless small spec rats like us. You just can’t hold beyond the close anymore. We are ALL daytraders now – frustrating…. Alright, let me take my tinfoil party hat off…

Here are the hourly short RLs for you rats – perhaps they can be useful.

Wave count has come as far as it can – seems like Soylent Green is on the menu unless this shit turns pretty much now. I’m not going to play the short side until we are MASSIVELY overbought. And even then I probably scale out on the way down to protect profts – which will ITM options to capture as much coin as possible at the start. OR it means some exotic spread strategies and I’ll be discussing this with Fujisan a bit further and report back. We have to change our game rats – this market is impossible to trade. I only had a tiny handful of puts left in the game, so it’s not the money – this shit is pissing me off, that’s all.

10:11am EDT: I shorted the ES at 921 and the NQ at 1418. Let’s see what happens…

10:17am EDT: The Dollar has reached terminal velocity – it might hit the concrete around 80.

Boy, am I glad I didn’t take that GLD trade…

10:40am EDT: Just to give you rats a heads up – if we continue downwards I’ll probably take profits around the VWAP – which is 918.75 in the ES and 1412.15 in the NQ.

10:46am EDT: I must be NUTS going short those futures. NDX breadth ratio right now is – wait for it – 22.75:1 advancing – SPX is 5.8:1 advancing issues. Those NDX numbers are completely nuts and quite frankly – scare me. Not sure how much validity Soylent blue still has. Theoretically it’s still a possibility unless the prior high is breached but – brother – odds are not looking good at all.

10:54am EDT: I don’t like this sideways consolidation here at all – not a bit. We are burning a lot of short term MACD/stochs without giving up much in price. If I don’t see selling kick in any time soon I’m out.

11:01am EDT: I really don’t like the blatant discrepancy in selling pressure between the NQ and the ES:

As you can see the ES is dropping and is now at VWAP while the NQ is consolidating sideways. Not looking good – and I’m close to cutting my NQs as well.

11:08am EDT: We might just drop through that ES VWAP – still holding my NQs and with some luck it’ll touch its own at 1413.25.

11:14am EDT: Okay, this is not going anywhere – I’m out – going to grab some breakfast.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • innatedc

    Taking some profits here on AZO….too much to leave alone…keep 50% to run…

  • Osso

    Eur….1.3787 !!!!!

  • Count_de_Monee

    I still think we close in the red no matter how much they keep trying to paint it.
    How many of the big boys still have secondaries lined up? None to very few, I believe, which means they can now let gravity take over again.

  • Osso

    VIX 26.85

  • amgrant

    This shit is pissing me off alright. I'm tired of these games. I've never in my 10 years of trading seen anything like this.

  • zenith191

    But I don't want to be a day trader. Perhaps we could all become bond traders? That market is too big for the MM's to push around as easily as the equity markets 🙂

  • BearsRus

    Mole, When are up updating last week's ER & RE performances?

    Greetz,

  • Iguanadon

    VIX down another 7.5%. Amazing

  • hindawg

    Wave 3 of C. Looking for a terminal pattern. Wedge or ending diagonal. 931ish or if they can stretch it out a couple more days we'll run into the 200sma.

  • C.C. Rider
  • lester

    How in th fuck do secondaries drive the market up? I thought dilution was baad.

  • alphahorn

    PCX which i posted yesterday is breaking out big time, hope some of you played it

  • Count_de_Monee

    It is. Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland market…

  • GoCougs

    Look at the volume on the $34 QQQQ puts, maybe we will see some downside today.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    This is like playing cops and robbers with a spoiled brat who constantly changes the rules of the game. Me: Hey, I shot you! Brat: Nuh-uh, I've got a force field! Me: WTF?!?!

  • ropey

    Ok im starting to scale into puts shortly, VIX is right at the 200 ema, may go a bit below but i'm a sucker for it 🙂

  • lester

    At this point I have taken almost as much pain as possible on my QQQQ Put POS position. However, I keep telling myself that at this point I might as well hold them to see if the Qs have a double top at the May 6th 35.3 level. By the way, congratulations to all those playing this long, you folks are the smart ones. I guess it never pays to bet against America and capitalism. That said, I am gonna hold these MoFos and see what happens at 35.3. Probably gonna be ugly but WTF.

  • BalaB

    That was a really nice open. (IMO)

  • salvadorveiga

    I wrote this 4 days ago:

    “4 days ago
    in I’m So Bored on evilspeculator
    lol… I think we may run up to 950+ the next couple weeks… keeping a stop though at 850
    I actually am expecting green… think this week andenxt we may have acceleration to the upside….

    4 days ago
    in I’m So Bored on evilspeculator
    I have a buy order at 875.50

    looking for some kind of rebound “

    No tap on my back? 😀

  • molecool

    When I'm done kicking that tree.

  • BalaB

    Tap Stallion. Tap +1

  • Gordon_Gekko

    Ding Ding Ding…seems like we have a winner. Rocketing Gold with rocketing equity markets. Jeez, what does that mean? It means party like it's 2003! Welcome to the Reflation play of 2009 courtesy of the Fed and US govt. The only difference this time is that things are much, much worse. Let's see how it blows up in our faces this time around. Call me chicken, but if I were you, I would not short either Gold or equities. Do you really want to be standing infront of the printing press with your piddly capital?

  • Squidman

    Sold mine after the close yday.

  • rhae

    I believe it is important where a gap occurs… I do not get to excited about a gap that occurs after a nice run… that is often amatures getting excited about missing the run, while the pro's are sneaking out the back door.

    Of course no one really knows… my excitement scale, maybe a 3

  • alphahorn

    ICO which i also posted yesterday is starting to run

  • BearsRus

    it might keep going down until or if it finds support on the channel bottom..

    http://i42.tinypic.com/1y27hh.png

  • Squidman

    I thought TOS looked funny. Not even a message this time.

  • BearsRus

    Alright, put some muscles in it!

  • annamall

    Good call Inna glad that worked out for you!

  • rhae

    while you are at it shake the tree, bears could use a few falling nuts….

  • BalaB

    Hey…Not sure if you got my response from last night (Disuq is spotty at best)…..but good stuff / info.
    Thanks again Rhae

  • C.C. Rider

    Bingo.That's going to leave a mark.

  • Fujisan

    I posted this yesterday, but I decided to post it again.

    I was listening to Basil Chapmans progam and he identified the current market price pattern as “stalk leg”, which is a very rare price pattern and only observed in major tops. This price pattern was observed in 1929, 2000, and 2007 market top, but this is also being observed in the current market as well.

    What this price pattern does is, it goes up, and up, without any meaningful retracement. When it retraces, it only lasts a couple of days, and then go back up again, and before you know, it's already made a higher high.

    It's quite dangerous to short this type of market, and I'm glad that I hedged my short positions on Monday and took the profit. I'm on the sideline until we know where the market is going.

  • FlamingFerrari

    I hope you are joking…

  • Keirsten

    What better way to get the Middle Eastern countries to buy our worthless treasuries (since the Chinese don't wanna play anymore) than to jack up the price of oil? That's my tinfoil hat comment for the day.

  • ropey

    /ES has to get to 923 to fill the gap just missed it by 0.25
    Ok maybe another 10-20points available here but averaging in on the puts…
    The damn premiums are back to where they were before the credit crisis began!

  • Squidman

    Can someone tell me the symbol for the dollar on prophet? TIA

  • BalaB

    $USD is getting hammered

  • trabuco

    Whats your GS insider saying today…did you guys catch GS putting BAC in the strong buy list a few days before the BAC
    stock offering?…what B.S….

  • BaldEagle

    Didn't you call for a move to 800 by now? Trying to play both sides of the fence?

  • junior35

    Hi Fujisan,
    So is it time to bail out of RIMM 75/65 June spread and QQQQ 33/31 as well?
    Cheers

  • rhae

    SPY 10m my energy storage calculator from the consolidation of yesterday suggests around 92.80

  • BalaB

    $DXY or /DX

  • alphahorn

    if you've read my recent posts then you would see that i believe there is a good chance we eeek out about 8 more SPX points and reach the 200ma before heading south. in times like this i find it easier to play individual stocks, particularly micro caps that bust out right near tops. playing the indices will cut you to shreds. so yes, i'm both long for very short term trades, but also building shorts for the drop

  • katzo7

    I don't know what to say about this market anymore.
    Hope this is okay with INDUS but he just said that was it for this run.

  • Keirsten

    I'm not doing squat until the oil inventory comes out in about 4 minutes. I scalped that jump and sitting on hands now…

  • salvadorveiga

    😀

    Putting my little article to use about the origin of the word Fuck…

    Location : Where the fuck do you attribute points to disqus users? Is it the “Like” link ?

  • Anonymous

    For the blue case (down), last night you drew 908 as the potential turning point, today it’s changed to 918.
    Do I miss anything?

    thnx.

  • JohnyWalker

    What about the expanded flat ? Some euro indexs are not rallying with this having hit targets for the 5th wave esp the FTSE.

  • GDII

    now i know who rob me. 😀

  • C.C. Rider

    I expect a short capitulation this week on HEAVY VOLUME.

  • anotherone

    If I understand Mole's count correctly, since we breached the 78% retracement level, blue is off the table. So green is what we're having for lunch. Which isn't to say that it won't fall down before going higher.

    So, does anyone have any ideas how to position for the move up? I grabbed 2 SPX Sep 950/1000 Call verticals at $17.65, but they're now too expensive for me to do that again.

    Thanks

  • djgrind

    Pfff…while the S&P did not reach its previous high (930), the DAX made new highs (now 5060 vs its previous high 4980…) WTF is going on…normally when the $ goes down, European indexes go down too…I am keeping my puts (bought between 4980 and 5050) and see what's next…crazy tape I must say although I thought we had seen a lot of crap lately…

    Courage…

  • katzo7

    Thnx, just noticed that crazy Oscar just called for out of Euro now.

  • BalaB

    Yes…Click “Like”
    I remember you posting your call last week. Nice job Sal.

  • annamall

    Good post Fuji-san very interesting and looks to be very accurate. 🙂

  • http://acetraders.blogspot.com Nandu Konat

    Hey I expected this rally and warned to mhy bloggers this morning.

    BTW, Mole, please visit us @ http://acetraders.net . Be our regular guest.

  • cuvo

    This market is sufficiently diabolical for the evil speculator? 😯

  • Fujisan

    OMG, you didn't hedge your position until now? Didn't you read my post on Monday that I was going to hedge my position if Friday's high was being taken out? You ALWAYS have to put on your stop loss in case the trade goes against you. You let your profits run, not the loss.

    This is my personal opinion, but it seems to me that they are going after the recent tops and probably it's going to be a double top, but there is no guarantee that it stops right there. As it's WAY too late to take off your bear spreads, you might just have to pray and hope that they will stop there. If not, then I might consider taking them off, but probably your spreads would be worthless by then.

    Please please plan on your trade and always have your stops in. Never let your positions under water entirely.

  • annamall

    Hey guys, I am off to do a couple of errands, hold the fort down and sell this damn thing will ya? 😉
    My HPQ put spread is working nicely and I am holding as I see more downside possibly to 32 area in the next few weeks.

  • molecool

    You can say that – yes 🙂

  • Count_de_Monee

    This morning's GS intel report:

    “- Global market views update – Dominic Wilson – keeping tactical pro-cyclical stance – systemic improvement – but bar for economic news has been raised. Second attachment. With the rally hitting its largest air pocket so far last week, the big question is whether the cyclical stabilization that we have positioned for is now fully priced. Unless the industrial news turns more clearly negative, we are likely to stick with our tactical pro-risk stance. Our basic benchmarking of markets to the data points to further ‘room to run’, as long as industrial news evolves as we expect. With the market absorbing around $40 billion of new equity supply and some softness in the data, we may simply have seen a necessary digestion. And while the economic news has been a touch less friendly, the virtuous circle of systemic improvement – which has been helped by capital-raising – still seems firmly in place. As we think about risk-reward here, it is less the modest disappointment in recent data (claims, retail) and more the sense that our near-term macro views are more widely shared that gives us pause. Expectations of economic news have adjusted. The recent softness in some recent US consumer and labour market indicators make it more important that this week’s Euroland Flash PMI’s, Philly Fed and the Advanced GLI reading still show momentum firming. As long as they do, this will reinforce our comfort that we can retest recent highs in cyclical assets. While substantial equity issuance may have caused markets some hiccups, it is further progress towards necessary deleveraging.

    – VIX set to continue to decline – likely to trade below 20 in one year's time. Wilson cont'd: Simple macro models suggest that the current macro picture would be consistent with the VIX below 30 and the 1-year forward could plausibly belong below 20. Those models effectively assume that volatility is driven in part by ‘macro’ and in part by ‘financial risk’. The relaxation in financial risk measures is mostly what has helped so far. But as the pace of deterioration in the labour market eases, the macro component should also begin to push towards lower volatility

    – Four headwinds for US consumer spending. TrimTabs: (i) In the three weeks ended Friday, May 15, tax refunds were $27.8 billion, down $33.5 billion, or 54.6%, from $61.3 billion in the same period a year ago. (ii) The boost from the Obama tax credit this year pales in comparison to the boost from the Bush tax credit that hit consumers’ pocketbooks from May 2008 through July 2008. (iii) Fuel prices are rising, reducing the tailwind from lower energy costs. (iv) Mortgage refinancings are declining, reducing the tailwind from cash-out refinancings.

    – Biggest monthly outflow from M2 savings on record – probably found its way into the stock market, tax payments and debt reductions. TrimTabs: The $83 billion outflow from M2 savings in April was the highest since records begin in 1959. Breaking this $83 billion outflow into its components, $30 billion flowed out of retail money market funds and $53 billion flowed out of savings accounts and small certificates of deposit. Some of this money probably found its way into the stock market, and the balance was probably used to pay taxes and reduce debt.

    – Our US credit loss estimate of $2.1 trillion is reasonably conservative – estimates of $3.5-4.0 trillion seem to high – US banks should now be able to earn their way out of the current credit crisis. Jan Hatzius: One potential objection to our relatively upbeat view regarding the ability of US banks to “earn their way out” of the current credit crisis is that it is based on a cumulative US credit loss estimate of “only” $2.1 trillion. This is substantially below some of the most pessimistic figures by other analysts, which have risen into the $3.5-$4 trillion range in the past few months. We certainly agree that the size of the losses is a central issue. If losses do total $3.5-$4 trillion, banks will still encounter very serious problems. But it is important to note that our estimates already incorporate a very dire picture for credit quality. They are consistent with those of the IMF showing a doubling in the bank loan charge-off rate from its 75-year record of 2.05% (annualized) in 2009Q1—a quarter in which real GDP contracted at a 6.1% annual rate and nominal house prices had already fallen 30%—to 4.3% in 2010Q3. If our GDP forecast is correct, this would imply a year of massive further deterioration at a time of positive GDP growth—historically a highly unusual outcome. Thus, our estimates leave quite a lot of room for the real estate bust to produce losses far above their historical relationship with GDP, which in turn reduces the likelihood that reality will turn out to be substantially worse than our estimates.”

    So it seems the GS research boys are pretty bullish, headwinds notwithstanding. I find it interesting that they're noticing rotation out of cyclicals and banks and into defensive sectors. I guess that BAC may be the exception to this rotation. Then again, I think this is the last pop in financials.

  • ropey

    Will be interesting to hear the fed minutes on the dollar, last time it was 'we don't care' but this is going to turn into a monster for them if they don't stop the fall at some point soon…

  • molecool

    Another one bites the dust. Meh – no worries – good luck over there, we always enjoyed your contributions although you didn't stay long.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    lol, +1 for you and the Stallion both

  • molecool

    You are such a promiscuous rat 😉

  • amgrant

    I agree completely. Until that changes we will see anything priced in US dollar to continue soaring. There are huge forces at work here, but as a trader the best thing we can all do is have good money management. We, as retail traders, are but tiny peons in the sea of institutional trading.

  • http://acetraders.blogspot.com Nandu Konat

    Sometimes I've attitude issues 🙂 .. I may act like a baby and I could do that only @ my home not anywhere. So started own blog 🙂 ..

  • cuvo

    Perhaps that's their trigger to sell the market and PMs and shore up the buck.

  • Squidman

    Ditto BalaB's thanks on the volume for follow through analysis. 3 on 10 scale?

  • katzo7

    Yeah, first time over there, honest!

  • katzo7

    You mean you are not perfectly and evenly tempered like mole and I? LOL

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning rats, got filled on PCX this morn 10.30.

  • http://acetraders.blogspot.com Nandu Konat

    lol

  • molecool

    So true – we are picking breadcrumbs at most.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Going short OIH here at 104.15 – might have put in a short term blow off top – up 12 bucks in little over 2 days.. I think dollar should rest a bit.. I am not able to pull up my ToS EUR-USD chart.. but in the charts I put up on screencast, I see a line that passes through 1.375 – we might go back to that..

    Also, expect money to move OUT of financials if dollar keeps tanking…. because money is going to come out of somewhere to go into the commodities… So, short financials could also be a good one here if you rae going to short at all

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Going short OIH here at 104.15 – might have put in a short term blow off top – up 12 bucks in little over 2 days.. I think dollar should rest a bit.. I am not able to pull up my ToS EUR-USD chart.. but in the charts I put up on screencast, I see a line that passes through 1.375 – we might go back to that..

    Also, expect money to move OUT of financials if dollar keeps tanking…. because money is going to come out of somewhere to go into the commodities… So, short financials could also be a good one here if you rae going to short at all

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/4EW54kiI

    I guess my profit chart could be bad feed but I show 9 million ES future just traded….absurd volume

  • ropey

    GS not playing ball again today, been red for the most part…

  • Squidman

    Get something sexy for our date tomorrow will ya!

  • rhae

    yes, 1-10 scale…. standard

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks!

  • alphahorn

    hope it works for you, seems to be building a bullish flag here for another run, i'm looking for the upper 14s

  • rhae

    thx… lots of good stuff on Rat site… I try and contribute…

  • alphahorn

    trying a very short term scalp here long FAS 9.98

  • ropey

    Maybe it's me but i think too many people are looking for a straightline to the 200ma, agree cant argue against the action but when the herd is all looking for it and you have GS at LOD then to me it means they're gonna flip this baby for a quickie

  • BalaB

    ES at VWAP

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    If we go down from here, financials will take it up their ass… they offer best risk-reward.. 870 and beyond the rally is being run by commodities and tanking dollar. So, there really is no support for financials…

    Also, if you are betting that energy goes down, go short IWM… It is the index I have seen best correlated with energy and commodities. Lots of small energy and commodity companies out there.

    I am short financials via SKF, FAZ and SRS

  • alphahorn

    added a bit more at 9.88, stop 9.75

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Bad idea IMO… the rally is commodities driven.. If we move down, financials will fall off the cliff IMO.. On a strong day if you are going to go long, go long the sector that is strong on a pull back… this is what has worked for me always

  • Count_de_Monee

    It seems bears are throwing in the towel left and right. Coupled with the lowest bears reading in over a year on Investor's Intelligence, vix below 30, Cramer calling anyone selling stupid and USD approaching support, I'm sticking with my call that today was blowoff top and we close red.

  • ropey

    nods, if not today then thurs or fri – its definitely 'too bullish' right now and expect some of those gaps recently to get filled before the next leg up

  • Keirsten

    Short oil- put on a small position for a daytrade/tight stop as I can't monitor the trade this afternoon. G/L again Rats. 🙂

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77
  • innatedc

    If you're right Count, I'll be pointing you up all over the place…..wait til EOD…

  • BalaB

    I call this piece of shit “Lines on a Chart”
    Inspired from the Midieval period

  • standard_and_poor

    IMHO Expect a pullback after 942-950, but overall next few weeks will be quite bullish.
    I will be adding to longs on pullback, I personally prefer to hold rather than the usual
    active trades from this point on even though I know there will be pain at times.

  • Count_de_Monee

    If all else fails, there's always the neighbor indicator.

    I hope she's feeling frisky today.

  • alphahorn

    not my best idea

  • onorio

    So far zero is giving good signals, i still dont know who the hell complaint about it..

  • molecool

    “I suck”

    Don't say that – seriously – many traders psychologically beat themselves up when they lose. This is very treacherous tape and if you look at those breadth numbers it's easy to see how the tape is being painted. Just relax about it – you lost a few bucks – not a big deal. We'll get it back.

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks again, check out SANM for a breakout as well. I'm currently in it.

  • Anonymous

    shooting stars forming on S&P 500 and other indices, many long term bears capitulating …

  • standard_and_poor

    SANM, waiting for breakout to add more longs.

  • molecool

    Some poor child – I showed him the door.

  • innatedc

    Nice call on OIH….dropping like a rock right now….do you have a target? Gonna keep my bear call spread….

  • amgrant

    Mole's right. Many traders don't realize the subconscious consequences of getting frustrated. It took me a long time to train my brain to get over periods like this. It's difficult but that's part of the package.

  • onorio

    Man i hope you`re right, but i`ve seen this tape happens everyday in the last 2 months.

    Everyday seems like the top, but every dip is bought…

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Financials already in red as I posted earlier. Anything dollar friendly could kill the rally – lets see what is there in fed minutes..

    Signs of run away inflation might bring the rate hikes nearer

  • ropey

    CME looks good for a short on any pop – been very weak last few days..GS looks like it ants to fill that damn gap, oh the plans were so perfect but my balls didn't exist yesterday – goddamit ropey shutup and trade

  • SuperBowlShuffle

    The market will show its true colours soon…

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/pcOxx1BT4q

    That little pattern might have run its course…SPY coudl be going back up

  • LostIllini

    Looks like Uncle Buck is done Cliff Diving for the day…maybe…. If so we could get some badly needed correction.

  • BalaB

    Poor attempt at “Family Guy” style humor.

    Actually, I made a nice little purse this morning.

    It appears we're setting up for the 'consolidate / drop to relieve the pressure' before an EOD move up. (only saying this is a possibility)

  • Squidman

    There is not going to be any inflation until people start buying million dollar homes again. Currently a 33 year supply of 2 – 3 million homes in many areas.

  • Niktus

    I have been thinking about that. I tried to explain FTSE negative due to RSI close to 70 (68) still it is not a good enough explanation.

    http://screencast.com/t/VDZoLaKs

  • Squidman

    I never had a problem firing bad customers. So much easier than finding good employees, which in this case is your sanity.

  • lester

    33 year ?

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    IMO we should see 95 at some point in next few days…

  • BalaB

    I don't know why but I get the feeling your favorite movie of all time is 'Vicky Christina Barcelona'

    Be honest now, you're studying Javier Bardem's moves until perfection. (LOL)

    http://img2.timeinc.net/ew/dynamic/imgs/080512/

  • hindawg

    Ok 4 of C, looks like we got the wedge instead of the ending diagonal. I think its a termianl pattern and we find out if Mole has {2} correct or if it was wave 4.

  • Squidman

    At current absorption rates, yes. Amazing isn't it. Yeah, everything is just fine!

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/70xBxx7oJh

    /ES not enough juice to hit the 38 FIB or retrace to neckline, this smells like weakness to this amateur….at least in the “hour trade” scenario

  • PRSGuitars

    Scary! What's your data on this, if you don't mind (curious, not challenging your source…)?

  • LostIllini

    SPY too hard to figure out but UUP seems easier and the two are inversely correlated, seems like Uncle Buck found his spine….

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

  • onorio

    close gap and crap?

    man im realing enjoing the 10m chart…nice candle

    i miss BIG RED candles!

  • lester

    I get my hopes up for my QQQQ Puts paying off until I look at chart and see that QQQQ is still above Tuesday high. But there may yet be hope ….

  • alphahorn

    buying jul VIX 30 calls, why not?

  • Fujisan

    Hi, K, are you watching GS? It's dropping below S1 level….

  • Squidman

    MLS inside. Realtors are really capitulating. Of course the absorption rates can change pretty fast.

  • BalaB

    You gotta give it to ZH…their sarcasm is refreshing

    “In yet another market test for commercial real estate appetite (or the lack thereof), a few days ago, troubled retailer Saks, using Morgan Stanley as interest (or lack thereof) solicitor, attempted to raise bonds in order to pay down its revolver (hm, expensive capital paying off cheap capital – definitely not a trend these days) and other upcoming maturities: Saks has quote a lot of them – roughly $190 million in bonds coming due by the end of 2011. The bonds would have been secured by Saks' real estate assets. The “market” took MS's call, listened politely, hung up, took 10 minutes to complete a few cycles of LMAO/ROFL, then called back and said: “Done… at 15%.”

  • EDC

    there hasn't been a new build sold all year long for over 750k in the UNITED STATES!
    high end prices have to come down.

    The inflation that MLMT is refering too is risk based on the sovereign this will lead us to MASSIVE deflation believe it or not. Causing an sheer and utter bond collapse. This is where the pundits on media get it all wrong. Once our rates go up, (FED won't raise because the banks need the curve to increase)… capital will buy gubermint bonds because the capital structure is being thrown in the waste basket. Secured debt is pointless now if the GM story keeps making the impossible seem possible.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Ok on a roll…Elliot would say 5 waves here,
    but waves dont usually pop up after a mini bear flag, so I guess these stops hold and let more downside role into the ban account

    http://screencast.com/t/pBEO5As3CVW

    Maybe we get an even bigger bear flag, then go to around 904….good to shake out some weak bulls, MM warrior thinking

  • annamall

    OmG you guys listened while I was gone LOL. Sweet!! Look @ Goldman Sucks!
    Did I miss something in the hearing?

  • cuvo

    Perhaps you could develop a Market Psychosis Index $PSYCHO

  • PRSGuitars

    Just looked at the Jun 30s, but your Jul's look smarter. Nice pick — been watching your posts for quite some time (very impressed overall! keep it up)

  • Count_de_Monee

    I thinks that's a smart move.

  • rhae

    I was curious about some sector rotation into Healthcare ( defensive)… So I checked with one of my old favorites DNA Genentech… Oh, Oh gone, gobbled up by Roche in March…
    Roche trades as an ADR (pink sheets) ….As an international giant druggie, it might be worth keeping an eye on. RHHBY fwiw.

  • lester

    look at SOH blog

  • PRSGuitars

    You in HI or AK? or elsewhere?

    (mom's on south shore of Maui, I noticed the time in your TOS charts…)

  • Fujisan

    I'm short GS Anna.

  • molecool

    Fuck disqus is slow today again.

    Anyway, I just spent 30 minutes talking to a guy who's been a trader for 15 years – he's completely frustrated by all this bullshit. I told him that he should monitor himself and not let this crap affect him and his trading.

    Take myself – I shorted the market at the top but only eeked out little profit as this bitch didn't seem to break – so I exited. Then, while on the phone with my buddy I watch the floodgates open and now we're massively dropping without me. Yes, it hurts – but I won't let it affect me – because otherwise I have to stop doing this.

  • annamall

    Me too Fuji-san! 🙂 What happened to the rally ??

  • Lordted

    Sound thinking as always S&P. Could be on for your 1000 sooner or later me thinks..

  • Osso

    GS…136.10/78…..1st. support.

  • GDII

    it is hi time i believe, since i am here too. jet lag is killing me.

  • alphahorn

    you still short JCI?

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • YOGI

    hey mole,

    you shud go eat breakfast more often…lol

    not that i mean it but ur stepping out did help my qqqq puts—still in the red–bought yesterday

  • annamall

    Mole, I just got back. What happened? any news, are you long?

  • Count_de_Monee

    I've seen it but I disagree with Tim. I think the Vix gets a bounce here and will surely be above 30 by the time July comes around.

  • FlamingFerrari

    I will define as the Pain Function on the following variables: 1) average execution price, 2) current drawdown, 3) duration of drawdown, 4) negative utility of drawdown (or your pain threshold). Every trader has one such function (it has no value if the position is in the money), MMs are usually working in the direction of maximizing the aggregated sum of “pain” of all the traders expressed using such a function. (hint hint: trade momentum when you know when the aggregated pain is, or fade when the measure of pain is going climax)

  • annamall

    yep. what happened while I was gone. ??

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Having come down this far.. we do get a gap fill at least.. Where we go from there depends on the BUCK

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    I am crazy short the fertilizers from near the top at this morning

  • ckeltner

    Hi Osso – Great calls on GS Support/Resist areas. Where do you see a good bounce play to add on some puts.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    SPY sitting right below the 200 period MA on the 3 minute chart. It hasn't stayed appreciably below this during the entire runup this week. The next 10 minutes may tell us which way we're heading (rebound back up or drop more).

    http://screencast.com/t/gpUqY50pfX

  • alphahorn

    i don't listen to news, someone said Geithner made negative comments regarding commercial real estate. but spy filled its gap and the market rolled over there. also the spx retested the trendline and failed

  • stockmaerket

    Some odd observations that I had this morning (I'm in Boston, we have a budget issue of our

    own, so I was comparing it to the problems in California):

    California budget deficit, 21 billion. Massachusetts budget deficit, 1 billion. Ratio of

    California population to MA population: 5.65:1.

    A new bull market? No more Financial Crisis? Does Buy & Hold Work?
    as written in more detail <a

    href=”http://iamned.com/blog/”>Maybe Buy And Hold Does Work

    very compelling

  • stockmaerket

    Some odd observations that I had this morning (I'm in Boston, we have a budget issue of our

    own, so I was comparing it to the problems in California):

    California budget deficit, 21 billion. Massachusetts budget deficit, 1 billion. Ratio of

    California population to MA population: 5.65:1.

    A new bull market? No more Financial Crisis? Does Buy & Hold Work?
    as written in more detail Maybe Buy And Hold Does Work

    very compelling

  • stockmaerket

    http://youtube.com/67768g555rg4

    Im not an economist (obviously). The low # was good because less starts will let them work

    off the oversupply/overhang of the existing inventory, which many believe is understated

    because the banks are not fully reporting the foreclosure situation. This all depends on if

    someone will actually buy a house, because prices have not stopped going down. If this #

    came out 3-4 years ago maybe things would be a little different today.

    Are greenshoots just weeds? Or Justified? Interesting…

    http://thestreet.com/feature/articl/65we455r

  • stockmaerket

    http://youtube.com/67768g555rg4

    Im not an economist (obviously). The low # was good because less starts will let them work

    off the oversupply/overhang of the existing inventory, which many believe is understated

    because the banks are not fully reporting the foreclosure situation. This all depends on if

    someone will actually buy a house, because prices have not stopped going down. If this #

    came out 3-4 years ago maybe things would be a little different today.

    Are greenshoots just weeds? Or Justified? Interesting…

    http://thestreet.com/feature/articl/65we455r

  • stockmaerket

    http://youtube.com/67768g555rg4

    Im not an economist (obviously). The low # was good because less starts will let them work

    off the oversupply/overhang of the existing inventory, which many believe is understated

    because the banks are not fully reporting the foreclosure situation. This all depends on if

    someone will actually buy a house, because prices have not stopped going down. If this #

    came out 3-4 years ago maybe things would be a little different today.

    Are greenshoots just weeds? Or Justified? Interesting…

    http://thestreet.com/feature/articl/65we455r

  • stockmaerket

    http://youtube.com/67768g555rg4

    Im not an economist (obviously). The low # was good because less starts will let them work

    off the oversupply/overhang of the existing inventory, which many believe is understated

    because the banks are not fully reporting the foreclosure situation. This all depends on if

    someone will actually buy a house, because prices have not stopped going down. If this #

    came out 3-4 years ago maybe things would be a little different today.

    Are greenshoots just weeds? Or Justified? Interesting…

    http://thestreet.com/feature/articl/65we455r

  • stockmaerket

    http://youtube.com/67768g555rg4

    Im not an economist (obviously). The low # was good because less starts will let them work

    off the oversupply/overhang of the existing inventory, which many believe is understated

    because the banks are not fully reporting the foreclosure situation. This all depends on if

    someone will actually buy a house, because prices have not stopped going down. If this #

    came out 3-4 years ago maybe things would be a little different today.

    Are greenshoots just weeds? Or Justified? Interesting…

    http://thestreet.com/feature/articl/65we455r

  • Blind_Squirrel

    me: Times I've made a gap up call = 0 I'm seeing signs we could gap higher. PS I hate when people make gap calls every day!!!!
    Sent at 6:26 PM on Tuesday

    Sent by PM's last night this was when ES was 903

  • Count_de_Monee

    Well I wouldn't say of all time, but it's a great movie and every red blooded male's fantasy.
    Ah, what I wouldn't give to be in a sandwich with those two…

  • JohnyWalker

    Seems to have played out nicely in the end.

  • standard_and_poor

    I'm holding, will hedge around 940 if we look toppy. Or if we start dropping fast from here. 

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    I'm holding, will hedge around 940 if we look toppy. Or if we start dropping fast from here. 

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    It's been a rough ride, the less trading the better. Should have stayed long from bottom in good stocks rather than trading both sides.

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    I know, but it's never easy.
     

    ________________________________

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Hawaii…
    Sorry for all the sloppy charts, but can't be too pretty while on the fly.

    Steve

    Steven Olsen — President
    Pacific Energy Strategies LLC

    94-1093 Hanauna St
    Waipahu, HI 96797

    Office (808) 671-5566
    Fax (808) 678-1475

    http://www.pacfreehotwater.com
    http://www.pacific-energy.com

  • BalaB

    Given the gravitas of your persona, I figured you'd have already
    bought the art studio on some Island while flying weekly to the
    “Mainland” to pick
    up more women.
    :- )

  • standard_and_poor

    I'm holding, will hedge around 940 if we look toppy. Or if we start dropping fast from here. 

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    I'm holding, will hedge around 940 if we look toppy. Or if we start dropping fast from here. 

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    It's been a rough ride, the less trading the better. Should have stayed long from bottom in good stocks rather than trading both sides.

    ________________________________

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Hawaii…
    Sorry for all the sloppy charts, but can't be too pretty while on the fly.

    Steve

    Steven Olsen — President
    Pacific Energy Strategies LLC

    94-1093 Hanauna St
    Waipahu, HI 96797

    Office (808) 671-5566
    Fax (808) 678-1475

    http://www.pacfreehotwater.com
    http://www.pacific-energy.com

  • Guest

    Given the gravitas of your persona, I figured you'd have already
    bought the art studio on some Island while flying weekly to the
    “Mainland” to pick
    up more women.
    :- )