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Target Practice
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Target Practice

by The MoleAugust 23, 2009

I still have family from Europe in town, so this is going to be the silent movie version of my  usual weekend post :-)

Everything you always to know about Primary wave {2} but never dared to ask:

  • We’re quite overbought after four up days, so we probably drop into Minute {2} on Monday or during ‘turn around Tuesday’.
  • I think any sort of retracement early next week is going to be fairly shallow – aim for the 1001 – 1015 cluster. Rest assured that the bulltards are not going to give up their coveted four digit mark – at least not yet 😉
  • After that expect a nice third wave to the upside – it should move along quite nicely as the last remaining retail traders are jumping into the fray of fear of ‘missing out on the new bull market’. There should be some institutional profit taking around the 1045 mark which is the top of Minor 4 of Intermediate (3) of Primary {1}. If that one doesn’t register we also got the 61.8% fib mark of Intermediate (W) of Primary {2} around 1050.
  • Target zones for Primary wave {2} are around 1070 and 1100 – barring of course any major events that might catalyze a drop to the downside.
  • Target dates are the first two weeks of September – if we run late we might push into the third. As a side note –  the September 16 date mentioned below would be almost too perfect to be true.

I hope Woody Allen would approve… after all he’s all into disappointment, self esteem worry, and drama – we’ll be dishing out plenty of that in Primary {3}. Maybe he can put together a nasty little play on Broadway play on the excesses of Wall Street once we touch 400 on the SPX. Theater usually seems to thrive during economic depressions – if you can get your play financed that is.

This chart offers some interesting statistics and definite food for thought.

Also, remember my time fibs? Primary 3 lasted 512 days – 38.2% of that would be ~195 days which gets us to September 16. Some of you are wondering why I am so early in bulking up on March puts. The reason is that some exogenous event (i.e. political, military, scandal, etc.) could catalyze the market early. Market forecasting is difficult endeavor at best – when it comes to long term trading I rather prefer to be early than fashionably late. So, please quit blasting annoying SMS and emails my way – I am very happy with my approach – let’s just see who’ll have the final laugh come next March.

So far we are on track – last weekend I had already accounted for a push higher into the 1050 zone – let’s not haggle about another 20 – 50 SPX points 😉

I mentioned this chart on Friday but it’s worthwhile a repost for anyone who didn’t see it. While we have been pushing higher the BAA-TYX spread has been slightly widening as well (highlighted on the chart). It’s only a little curl at this point and I will keep my eye on this. TYX ran up a little on Friday but I think that’s due to the looming auction – my homie Jeff over at the Housing Timebomb explained it just nicely:

The 10-year was up sharply today as the bond market nervously awaits the results of the next round of massive auctions. You need to be careful in the short term if you are shorting treasuries right now.

A credit trader explained to me that these rises in yield prior to auctions is an “old school” bond game from the ’70’s. The bond market sells off treasuries heading into the auctions so that the PD’s(primary dealers) can buy up whats left of the auctions the following week at a cheaper price.

Then once the auctions get completed, treasuries rise and the PD’s turn around and sell the bonds and make a nice profit on the spread.

In any case – we want to keep an eye on this spread – if it keeps creeping to the upside it’ll be additional confirmation that bond traders are reducing their risk exposure and that is a bearish alert signal.

This week saw a sudden downside correction after a promising run up – currency games galore. It really doesn’t matter though – we might go sideways for a bit and run up from here, or descend into 76 and then blast higher. Upside risk at this point far outweighs downside risk – it’s hard to find any Dollar bulls these days and we are in single digit territory, which is exactly why I expect the Dollar to find this year’s bottom in a very short order, if it has not already.

To summarize:

How’s that for target practice? Fall/Winter 2009 is going to be a lot of fun for the bears – get ready 😉

7:16pm EDT: Bonus chart:

Nice retest of that support line – great opportunity to reload IMNSHO.

9:11pm EDT: Bonus Clip – Joe Saluzzi strikes again:

‘I am not a bear – I’m a realist’

Exactly.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • annamall

    REPOST, Hi everyone, here is my take for the short term meaning…. this week, but I would like to add something for you all to think about, My feeling in the longer term (first of year) is that we see commercial realestate as the next shoe to drop, and drop hard.

    My shopping center, normally buzzing with peeps, cars active once are now one by one going down, Pet Supermarket (of course being annamall, I shop there quite often) is closing today, CVS closed down several weeks ago, Beef O'Bradys ( a popular wing place) going, Healthzone gone, Publix moving to stand alone location, this is not just one example. But what happens is a domino effect, because once the large players move or go out of business, the small businesses cannot hold up.This is not a small shopping center, it was mid-size or large as they go.. They will drop one by one. This will be our next leg to take us out of this bear Market Rally!

    That being said here is my charts for this week. MACD and STOCHS are as overbought as you can get, (we may get one last small gap to 1030) then we will see some retracement to the Fib retracement 1015 area, possibly 1005, before blasting off to the 1050 area next.

    Have a great week and let's make some serious money…:)

    here is my Fib retracement

  • PRSGuitars

    Love the post Mole! So much for the silent movie – plenty of good stuff in here…keep em coming!

    also, from last post (just after the *new post*):

    A friend of mine at Morgan Stanley just informed me that UNG, the nat gas ETF, is so named because it is the sound one makes immediately after making an investment in natural gas.

    LOL. Actually contemplated taking a single /NG contract banking on nat gas going higher before it hits zero (the max loss one one contract at this point is my account, basically, so…). Desperate times, I guess.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Hi Anna – hope you're weekend was great. I'll repost also.

    On your chart, my knee-jerk is to say that Tuesday's Consumer Confidence disappoints, but that Wednesday's New Home Sales surprises. (“Home Sales Stir” was the lead headline on my Sunday paper.) I think if it doesn't turn out that way we could see a bounce up. 😉

    The joker in this week's deck is how CARS impacted July's Durable Goods (Tuesday) and Personal Spending (Friday). CARS didn't start until July 24 so it's mainly an August thing. Common sense says if people are spending $$ on new cars they will be holding back spending $$ on other things.

    Anecdotally I'm hearing from my retailing friends that back to school sales are very weak. And the late September 7 Labor Day pushes that weekend out of back to school. Not good for retail sales, not good for commercial real estate.

  • molecool

    Type corrected plus I added the Dollar chart which is crucial.

  • molecool

    I just love to trigger your gag reflex 😉

  • annamall

    I replied last page Mac. :)

  • annamall

    You sure did! 😉

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yup we made a mess. :p

  • molecool

    Bonus chart!

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Thank you mole! Have fun with the visiting family, hopefully they are enjoying the “America on Sale” sale. As for me I'll have one glass of Kool aid please….

  • springheel_jack

    Great post Mole.

    The air is getting mighty thin up here for this rally.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I put gas in the car this morning. And while my mind was on it, the old CBOT “crack spread” play popped into my head. This about what's going on with crude vs. natural gas.

    Market is betting long on crude as inflation hedge, but short natural gas and some oil refineds on the idea that some green shoots will wither. /HO is also down, but /NG much more so, probably due to the natural gas electricity connection. (If electricty demand collapses they can generate most of it with coal and hydro and nuclear, cheap “base load” stuff, and not have to burn all that gas.)

  • fa_q

    I'm shorting 1/2 here at 1026

  • annamall

    LOL :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I'm thinking if I want to be up all night tonight with /ES or not, lol.

  • fa_q

    Just remember that the crumbling of CRE as compared to resi is glacial. Most CRE was done on 5 year paper whereas the garbage MBS was all 2 year paper. Also, you're talking about different type of entities. The cramdowns on the CRE can be done by the REITs where families just get railed on theirs. Also with LIBOR trading where it is, even the adj CRE is doable still. The impact of vacancies is more of a trickle-down. But yes, it is absolutely the billion pound elephant in the corner. But it's also the next bailout waiting to happen.

    You will see, short-term however, that IYR was not bullish on Friday. It basically sold off the entire day after the spike up and did not follow the S&P or Dow to new highs.

  • fa_q

    I doubt I am. This is more of a 2-4 day play for me. Maybe it goes higher, but 1000 gets tested this week.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    The Market Profile on /ES is all skewed now, even more so than Thursday night. But usually there isn't enough volume overnight for the value play to evolve.

    I think I go do some stuff for the day job, put the chart up in the background and watch for any Asia news. 😉

  • annamall

    Fa_q that is why CRE is so important! it is the business (small allot of them) realestate, last thread holding us up! That thread pulled is like when you have a silk shirt, if you put that loose thread, it will all come UNRAVELED. LOL
    So hence W or god forbid an M what will happen to the economy. 😉

    Now that willl be a bear market!

  • http://www.vuepath.com vuepath

    Just went through my extended basket of 200 or so stocks and noticed that only about a half dozen made new highs on Friday. The last time I noticed this kind of divergence was the first week of March… only then it was the indexes hitting new lows instead of new highs. About the only “leader” I could find that made a new high was AAPL… and just barely. The bulltarts may not be dead yet, but there sure is quite an albatross hanging around their neck.

  • Merker

    One interesting thing is the time retracement levels based on the Aug 08 to March 09 peak to trough. Mole's forecast is roughly in line with this.

    http://screencast.com/t/NMmYDUyfNOXQ

  • MJSgl

    Yep, I agree. Either CRE or European real estate crash will have severe reverberations.

  • MJSgl

    Awesome stuff, Mole. I love the way you lay it out. I have fully embraced the evil side and I'm nearly giddy with excitement over approaching P3.

  • PRSGuitars

    Intraday bounce off of the monthly VWAP — http://screencast.com/t/fQS9wFBxftPL

    Just a heads-up for a possible target. Just like Annamall's 1003-1008ish call — hopefully sooner rather than later, as we all know…Pisani-wisdom… “sideways is a victory for the bulls, basically”… so hopefully no sideways.

    Wow, futures spiking on 4000 contracts in one minute. Great! Like we could've seen that one coming. Out for flat on the night…sigh… was up 2 pts but acceptable to give it back when fuckery like this happens. Meh, it could be worse.

  • Teich50

    Yeah the non-confirmation of new market highs has been widely reported. See http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/08/indicato… .

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    I know its crude but I laugh out loud every time I see it.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    pressed short /nq (had 1x pos@1626sh from Friday) upped it up to 3x @1643
    on 4 hour sell and 2h sell (almost completed)/Countdown completed

    opened 1x /es short 1028 as well
    no stops for me
    good night

  • PRSGuitars

    Wise words. Thanks for the commentary! I have a very myopic view of how these work in concert, so its always a pleasure to have someone more informed offer their view.

    Cheers!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yup, I still have my “doom and gloom” portfolio's watch list (portfolio itself closed long ago :(
    all longs – portfolio fails to make new highs as major indexes climb

  • mediatik

    futures @ 1032 wow

  • wex

    That is the crudest cartoon I've seen on the net. I think it will haunt me for a long time. Nevertheless, it gets to the point of things.

  • PRSGuitars

    Ok — here's a potential reversal zone (so I'm establishing a 25% short /es here, but it's scary…) —

    We're retouching the midline of the previous 'best fit' channel (the red arrows) from the past month or so, as well as reaching the top line of a major channel from this entire rally.

    http://screencast.com/t/pfcSxcRyP9y

    Context: http://screencast.com/t/qA7MkaIF
    Further-out: http://screencast.com/t/wt1GqT9iT3th

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Sadly one cannot “unsee” something….

  • Teich50

    Nikkei is up over 3%.

  • PRSGuitars

    I almost made a joke about how deep the rabbit hole goes…

    then i thought about how deep the bear hole goes. ugh. Gonna go throw up my dinner now.

  • Teich50

    I am waiting to add to my ES short at ~1035. G/L to us.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I don't even want to watch it – moronic one lot traders keep pushing it up

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I think I'm getting long as John Holmes on Monday Afternoon… How hard is it going to be to beat this????? and if we don't we really are screwed…

    Aug 25 9:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jun – -17.0% -16.40% -17.06%

    So Tuesday Morning we are expecting home prices to decline 17%….what if they only decline like 8%?

  • annamall

    OMG I just looked we are testing new highs, good that means we will definitely go down soon 😉

  • annamall

    ditto Wex, GROSSSSSSS!

  • jamesmarkii

    maybe we go down..doesnt seem likely..this is the gheyest b.s rally ever…
    :/
    whats a pullback?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Another gang bang with ES overnight….

  • ACJ

    I don't care what your EW Charts are, when you see this it's a Wave 3. So revise your counts to accommodate it.

  • SpeedSkt1

    Besides the problems with CRE, we aren't done with the problems in the residential real estate market–the same problem that got us here in the first place. The chart that Mole has up is great. I think it is, quite possibly, one the most important charts out there. The resets are looming.

    Anecdotally, there is plenty of unoccupied CRE in the Chicago area.

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet
  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    yeah this reminds me of the stop run back in july at 865 just before we started this monster rally here – of course different conditions and patterns but still seems quite odd to me here seeing us rally here on a sunday night.

    Interesting to see that EURUSD is not supporting this move to new highs. Yes of course they are not directly related but still quite an unusual divergence.

  • mmTesla

    Hello everyone!

  • prescient11

    We shall be red to flat in the morning I believe.

  • marketmaker

    I stink at analysis, but here's my contribution:

    Bulls really do like round numbers, at least on hourly charts.

    http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/8263/2009082

    It's quite amazing, actually.

  • marketmaker

    Hello!

    It looks mighty cold where you are!

  • Bricks

    For those of you who are buying Dec-March spy puts…what strikes are you focusing on? This type of longer term options strategy is very new to me and I am wondering how this community is playing it.

    Thanks,

  • disrespekt

    Energy issues leading the economy:

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1250621683.php

    this is how even if we weren't seeing consumption growth outstripping discoveries growth by 15:1, we still have an energy problem. Net supply decreases irrespective of apparently substantial nominal reserves discoveries (Jack, Tupi, Carioca)

  • marketmaker

    I don't know why, but this seems apropos:

    When I woke up this morning, I got myself a beer
    Well, I woke up this morning, and I got myself a beer
    The future's uncertain, and the end is always near

    Let it roll, baby, roll
    Let it roll, baby, roll
    Let it roll, baby, roll
    Let it roll, ah, all night long

    ~The Lizard King himself, Jim Morrison

    Roadhouse Blues, 1970.

  • disrespekt

    Saluzzi makes a good point…with the extent of gov ownership, they have made shorting near impossible, thus the price trends are up.

    This crap since March has been a big gov-orchestrated short squeeze starting in C. Lots of reports of pensions, the USG, etc., calling in shares. With the significance of the ownership percentages by government actors of all stripes, it's clear how this thing can appear to levitate up like Sonic the Hedgehog

  • Blind_Squirrel

    I never gave Mole permission ro post that photo of me
    on this site!!!! And sadly, I'm not the Bear!!!!!

  • wex

    Your analysis has been spot on. Good work.

  • Bricks

    Rockwell Collins looks good for a call play. http://screencast.com/t/62DIzijwf8f

  • blues

    Hey anyone here think that we might be in a big Mege-PHone pattern where 2002 Oct low is A and 2007 Oct High is B and March 2009 is C and we are on our way to about 1600 as D and then a final E to break 666? That would be something…

  • standard_and_poor

    WEEKEND UPDATE

    Open Positions.
    Porfolio A., all stocks purchased mid morning on 7-15-09.
    Legend:
    stock symbol,purchase price, percentage return as of close -8-21-09.

    CPF, 2.59, +14.3%
    TSFG, 1.1489, +73.2%
    NASDAQ COMPOSITE return during same period = 9.8%

    CLOSED POSITIONS. Portfolio A:
    All positions purchased mid morn. 7-15-09 and closed 8-17-09 4pm E.S.T.
    Legend:
    stock symbol,purchase price, % return as closed position:
    LIZ, 2.85, +16.5%
    NCS, 2.759, +25.75%
    SWSI, 6.47, +2.6%
    Total return = +14.9%
    Nasdaq composite return during same period =+4.9%

    Closed Positions. Portfolio B:
    All positions purchased 07-24-09 at close, positions closed 08-17-09 at close.
    Legend:
    stock symbol, purchase price, %return upon close.
    PRGX,3.52,+44%
    MCCC,4.78,+1.0%
    PSMT,16.27, +3.2%
    APP,3.90,-12%
    UTA,11.14, +13.7%
    IPI,26.98,-8.9%
    CNX,38.15,+9.9%
    POT,93.01,-2.0%
    Total return = +6.36%
    Nasdaq comp return during same period = -1.87%

    Portfolio C opened on 7-16-09 and closed on 8-17-09:
    URE = +27.8%
    TNA = +21.5%

    Portfolio A was hedged for 30 minutes on 8-21-09.

    Currently 10% long. I wish I had continued holding most of the stocks but they were
    unfortunately stopped out, tough tatties.

    From girls to women:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjtTCRVIgvw
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbXKEjIApac

  • mmTesla

    Haha!

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    anything is possible at this point but here's a shorter long-term look

    http://screencast.com/t/KK3oWpiLUHw

  • mrclam

    Great video mole, thanks :)

  • fa_q

    1600? I've officially now heard it all.

  • molecool

    Anything is possible but not everything is probable.

  • molecool

    Read last Sunday's post (August 16).

  • Twin

    !
    an EW practioner, who's +, (opaque expression) astonishing

  • Twin

    i'm short @1031.75

    no stops eh?

    tgt 1/2 the breakout from 1004 to 1032, 1018

  • Twin

    short from 1031.75

    tgt 1/2 the breakout from 1004 to 1032, 1018

  • AS2009

    Anna – could you post your chart please – think you forgot :)

  • steveo77

    I have chosen a few sectors, and made a candle glance page that will allow people to get a quick look at how sectors are moving and in relation to each other. This is a pretty cool way of getting a quick overview of the market. You can customize these also, save them as favorites on your desktop and have a good tool at your disposal.

    You can always find these as permanents links on my blog, which I hope the blog will achieve a “trader reference page” type status.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

    These Candleglance groups have a 1 year and 2 month durations

    These links are now a permanent part of my Blog. The intent is to quickly be able to click through a bunch of links and get a feel for the market. Let me know if you like this or have different sectors that you think “ought” to be in here.

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?…

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?…

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks Twin. ; )

    ________________________________

  • fa_q

    Nice entry. I added 1/2 of NQ at 1646.

  • fa_q

    Nice entry. I added 1/2 of NQ at 1646.

  • rhae

    can't pull up the chart 333, just a red X for me… Don't why, I do know that DISQIS does not support all web hosts I think). I had Ripway at one time and nothing would come up. Then I switched to screencast and no problems… I do not know why, maybe Disqis, gets a “just that time of the month” too ?….

  • http://rosabarba.livejournal.com Rosabarba

    Was it taken during your Canadian vacation?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2009/aug/13

  • standard_and_poor

    That a boy! Did you change eye patch from left eye to right eye?

  • rhae

    Something Ghostdog brought to my attention. Junk bonds/High Yeild Bonds/ Corporate Bonds, same thing. They are higher risk. Companies go to them for future financing of crap they think they need to have. Anyone correct me, I am not a bond trader. Tho I have followed them in an IRA account. Most family of funds have them. My favorite is PRHYX a T.Rowe Price fund.
    Only because it trades very smooth. These higher risk bond funds track fairly close to SPX. kinda.
    Get to the point, please… Aug 13 it started rolling over, and only showed a little life Friday. Which may have been option related? But what is it trying to say? Could be be front running equities? I wished I knew, I do know that last fall during the big crumble, they were in a race to the bottom with stocks. http://screencast.com/t/qTcxIxUn

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Hitler was just informed of Michael Jackson's untimely demise:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELyTBXzfQJ8

  • HappyJohn

    Mole, do you think that SPY March 65 and 70 puts are really the best way to play a giant melt?

    How do you feel about Jan 2011 FAS puts? With the 3x decay, if we're right with our market forecast, this thing should easily act like FAZ has over the last five months (100 to 2!). Also, you have until January 2011 to be correct. Not to mention that the decay alone will crush FAS, as these 3x funds all gravitate to zero over time.

    Thoughts?

    John

  • ???

    As my paltry donation, I've stumbled across this report: http://www.tulpenwoede.com/statemar.pdf

  • PRSGuitars

    What's tulpenwoede? and how'd you come across this, if you don't mind me asking?

    The linked file is great, though, so thank you for giving us a unique look on the flip side of the golden coin, so to speak…

  • Douala

    “BTW Mole, do you have to post that picture, god I just want to puke with that image. :) (of the bear cartoon) GROSS”

    T H A N K Y O U ! ! !

  • molecool

    Consider it the 'Mole Diet' :-)

  • Douala

    Mole

    Very good analysis and charts… too bad you included that cartoon. :-(
    Have you consider “therapy”?

  • peder1001

    well mostly the difference lies in that mole chooses entire economy and you choose the financials. FAS should sink very fast tho..

  • Douala

    From Bill Cara WIR
    ~~~~~~~
    This week for the US major market indexes, the RSI-7 shot back up to what will likely be Distribution Zone levels on Monday if there is a follow up to Friday. They were as follows: (S&P 500 Weekly and Daily at 75.8 and 69.4, up from 71.8 and 52.5 W/W) (DJIA Weekly and Daily at 76.0 and 70.0, up from 72.4 and 59.3), and (NASDAQ Composite Weekly and Daily at 76.7 and 64.6, up from 73.4 and 52.2). That’s too much too fast at Distribution levels where long-term oriented traders start taking money off the table.

    I alert you to the possibilities that the RSI-7 Weeklies for the major market indexes could break down through 70. At that point, which might take a week or two or possibly a day or two, there could be a rush to the exits, with a swift move down to 950 for the S&P.

    The probabilities are growing. This area in the S&P 500 between 1025 and 1050 is a danger zone unless markets sidetrack here, which will pull back the RSI-7 to give short-term Sell Alerts, but could still hang tough above 990

  • Bricks

    Thanks Mole,

    I read that post and completely forgot about it. My short-medium term memory has been completely shot since the baby arrived :)

  • annamall

    Thank you Wex. I said we may test 1027-1030, IMHO today we go nowhere, Dojiville.

  • annamall

    thanks Douala! that cartoon makes me gag everytime I see it, Please take it down Mole, for us Ladies????

  • annamall

    Ok I will repost chart from yesterday after I had my coffee, but I mentioned last night we may have one last gap up to retest highs and maybe a bit more, Viola! 😉

    Today in a few words will be nothing more than some chop, Doji IMHO by EOD, most traders are waiting for 2 things this week that are big, Consumer sentiment and New home Sales. Thats it in a nutshell, I thought last week the retracement would be Monday or Tuesday, so Tuesday it looks like it may be.

    Coffeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!

  • Douala

    I have to close my eyes everytime I refresh the page. I was so thankful when he changed the web page the first time he put this cartoon [if you can call it that] up, thinking I would never see it again. Was I wrong!

  • straightshooter1000

    Take it down for everyone. Disgusting.

  • http://www.cafes.net poisonfrog

    Good post. Good work. Thank you.

  • Douala

    Now that is what I call a “straight shooter”! :-)

  • bist

    Anyone know why FSLR has been tanking so hard lately?

  • de3600

    barron article about cooked books

  • de3600

    short since 147

  • Iguanadon

    I think Sarah Palin put up a post on her Facebook that said Obama is going to start rationing out sunlight.

  • annamall

    morning guys updated retracement chart since we went higher last night
    If we made new highs again today, then this chart will have to be redone.
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Annamall/fo

  • Osso

    hehehehe……!!!!!!!! tks 4 your mail…!!!! good trading D…!!!!!!

  • annamall

    Me too D! I can hardly focus on the rest of the charts.

  • annamall

    thank you SS, a class act! :)

  • annamall

    hey Iggy, I just can't stand that woman….yuk animal killer for sport….bitch….

  • shortcover

    writing calls at the bell on ung, tza, bgz, qid, faz. fxp and srs are well hedged…will have to wait for Oct before we get some real downside, it appears…

  • harveydent

    Jefferies downgraded the sector.
    dont care, getting in solar soon….

  • Iguanadon

    In my personal opinion, she's common redneck trailer trash. She caters to the fears and emotions of the lowest common denominator. But that wouldn't be nice, so pretend I didn't say that.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    We've had 5 days up in a row only once in the past year on the $SPX. Going to take a short position just for today at the open.

  • annamall

    I like that you said it. :) point up

  • GDII

    u bitch. this is called purely bloody show off.

  • gusrock1414

    I just spilled coffee all over my shirt. Luckily it was blue but I now have to walk around the office all day with this long coffee stain going down it. A case of the Mondays which means all rats need to stay away from market action today. I am warning you.

  • Douala

    Osso

    What do you think about his TA?

  • annamall

    watching the $DXY (or what's left of it) it seems like it's catching a bid, Last night I picked up 35 pips on FX shorting the EUR/USD, I love FX. :)

  • annamall

    As long as you didn't drop it on that new IPHONE!! 😉

  • Iguanadon

    Is it kind of like reading tea leaves. Reading coffee stains? Can you make out an image of Jesus or the virgin Mary?

    😉

  • annamall

    There's are our retest to the penny! Lets see what happens from here??

  • GDII

    heil

  • gusrock1414

    Well, it is very long and drawn out like this rally. Very thin line and I probably could not have repeated the error as a door bumped me walking into my office building and it just went everywhere. However, I have managed to obtain a shout wipe and attempting to remove stain. Anna, the new iphone was untouched by the flying coffee. We can all return to trading. I am long TOMO.

  • anotherone

    Morning Anna. Usually I'm with you on market related things, but I have to disagree on Sarah Palin. Particularly on the “animal killer for sport” comment. In Alaska, hunting is the equivalent of going to the grocery store and buying steaks. And predator control is a necessary part of protecting wildlife.

  • Keirsten

    Quick reminder- 103.94 is swing high resistance on SPY.

  • annamall

    thank evil angel! :)

  • Twin

    I’m going to wait for Europe to top, maybe Wednesday.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yup and we seem to be seeing some selling near the overnight ES high of 1032.50.

    With the ES Market Profile all high-skewed, if the sellers push back hard we could retrace a bit.

  • annamall

    The MACD and STOCHS on 5 and 15 min are showing strength.

  • annamall

    Hi anotherone! My feeling on hunters with guns is they are cowards. what kind of level playing field is that!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    wave 3 down for F may have started this morning

  • Keirsten

    Yep- selling came in pretty well before they took it there.

  • dust13

    Question being how to limit capital gains on trading account. Can you incorporate and/or use an offshore trading account. and is it legal?

  • http://peacefulgains.com/ peacefulgains

    Smallcaps look overbought, so we're out. Still holding on to retail stocks. (timeframe = 1 week)

  • rhae

    annamall mentioned a possible doji today… an Evening Star on the SPY daily at channel top, would be kool

  • Keirsten

    Went long ARIA

  • anotherone

    You sound just like my best friend. :) She's adamantly against hunting. While I've never hunted in my life, I've got a different perspective. Good trading today. Hope you bag some market makers and have their heads mounted on your wall. :)

  • Osso

    Dow tgt. 9705 is OK.
    But dont think the Inverted H&S tgt of 11250 and SPX 1237 will be possible.
    SPX max. tgt. 1122….i guess….maybe 1080 max.

  • Trader_Steve

    That's a better playing field than the cattle that walks up a ramp to its certain slaughter.

    I don't hunt, but if forced to if Precter is right on Dow 400 (four hundred) I will shoot right out my window if necessary.

    Steve

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like the market is resting before another pump up

  • annamall

    Morning Rhae! yes it would!

  • AudioTactics

    I'm at the beach on vacation so I've been out of the loop for the past 4 trading days but I think selling today around the 104 level in SPY makes sense for short-term pullback.

  • annamall

    How long you holding?
    Just joined you! :)

  • annamall

    Have a limit order in short EUR/USD for 1.4350

  • Lordted

    How many pump ups will it do?…. short got fillede at 1029.50 while I was out this morning. So just waiting and watching now… Might as well watch TV and see how it works out by end of day.

  • Keirsten

    My stop is at 2.12 fwiw.

  • Murph

    I will be doing the same if at EOD we are up.

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Increased longs this morning from 10% to 20% by adding TNA.

  • annamall

    You did go long right?

  • Bankrupt

    actually this rally seems weak to me

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    OK will my prediction from Friday hold true?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • bist

    Yeah if I had to guess that's what it looks like, but there doesn't seem to be much buying volume like the overboughtness is weighing on it. If I had to pick, I think it melts up today. But I'm going to sit this one out. All cash day for me.

  • bist

    Nice. FSLR too, huh? I thought only LDK cooked books.

    Thanks for the info, I'll stay away from solars for now.

  • raised_by_wolves

    My feeling on traders with the MACD and STOCHS is they are cowards. Everyone should just what the price action to level the playing field.

    😉

  • Keirsten

    PM high- 2.40. If it looks strong I'll leave it on. 2.25 is HS, so keep an eye on that.

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Guten Morgen ze beautiful ratz.
    A blog of degenerates for degenerates!

    See my hitler video from below. I borrowed it from the slopers.

  • wex

    while I agree about hunting for sport, hunting for sustenance is okay with me and there is no such thing as a level playing field in the wild.As to sport hunting I believe people could get as much thrill from laser sites with cameras attached then one could prove “kill” without any unnecessary loss.

  • Iguanadon

    Woo is quite good with EW and has some targets in mind…

    http://www.stocktock.com/2009/08/24/ew-and-fib-

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    One thing ze blog needs is MORE nudity, swearing, and looting.
    Make that 3 things. Yes I am on the level.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sblEd3VOQK0

  • annamall

    thanks! sent you an reply from last night's email.

  • itsgold

    did you go short at 1034?

  • Hanuman

    I joined you too. Went long via equity. Did you buy calls or equity?

    GL to you and Keirsten.

  • AS2009

    Anna – what are you expecting today / tomm based on the action ? Still holding your SPY Puts ?

  • annamall

    Does anyone else on TOS see GS checked in the quote box on LHS??? strange

  • annamall

    I think the retracement we get will be very weak, maybe 1015, (tomorrow) before racing up to 1050
    But as of now yes I still have them.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Interesting pattern for the last half hour on near the money SPY call options. Each time SPY pulls back the option prices pull back a little less. Points to a slight IV expansion. Interesting to see if it persists.

    Are the options traders seeing more chance of a drop or are they wrong way corrigans again?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I am 100% net short – this is a longer term trade based on weekly charts
    http://screencast.com/t/TStevE1i9K
    http://screencast.com/t/wDffFMOrmB

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    looting?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Right now I'm short things I think are DEFINITE like F, short 20k shares, and Silver short 20K shares and (to a lesser extent, might still be early)the EURO, BAC, STLD

  • innatedc

    No i don't see anything….

  • Johnny Quid

    Your nuts, good luck.

  • annamall

    Hmmm must be a setting I have. thanks Inna

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    thank you – just sticking with my nutty system – it says spx 1045 is a top for now

  • Bankrupt

    very quiet here today. they really shattered to pieces the bears. I wonder what bullish sentiment is, I'd guess north of 90%.

    we all know what this means…

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Reality sometimes bites you inglorious basterd.
     
     

    ________________________________

  • Bankrupt

    have you seen fre and fnm? they really want suckers into those 2 babies

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    I meant to say music but ze english skills are nazitrocious.
     
     

    ________________________________

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I am expecting slight pullback/consolidation to lasts till almost EOD, then SPX will probably set new slightly higher high close on hourly – and W5 hourly will be completed.
    if not today – then there will be higher hourly bar tomorrow morning (first one I guess)

    http://screencast.com/t/Q7KSlZrqh

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    so much for OPX cycles

  • ropey

    We are 1.00 SPY point away from testing gap resistance – i think we'll be there sooner rather than later.

    Keeping stops reasonably tight for downside in case they decide to play funny buggers with lower gaps and pullbacks..

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF has been going sideways all morning..Is this going to break out? Geeezzz

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    I realize I'm a stranger in a strange land so I'm going home to change avatars (maybe) and shower. I'll be sure to burn this avatar.

    Have a good day beautiful rats and katzo07.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tV6u97beANs

  • TheCrowe

    Alpha,
    Which method do you find most effective for shorting silver (short SLV? long ZSL? puts?) If the shares are available and you have the buying/shorting power, short SLV seems best.

  • ropey

    Bit of a perverse thought – not sure how that lines up with other folks stuff, although Mole's chart does kinda back up that theory a bit,
    Straight up? Probably not, pullbacks likely of course but persons pivots points to 108 as a theoretical top this month that's the gap filled and fib hit at 61.8% – 50 spy points, can they do that in a week? Possibly – up 8 today alone…

  • rhae

    can SPY take out and hold the hod 103.89 could get interesting

  • goldfishka

    ????????? ??????? ???? ?? ?????

  • Johnny Quid

    I'm with you on that: 1044- 1007- new highs. I was only pointing out that shorting 100% since March has led to death, the trend is still up my friend. I'll be getting short with you but not until the target which I expect this afternoon.

  • AS2009

    I just went long BAC calls Sept 18 @ 0.95 for tgt of 20.20-20.50 … BAC broke through strong resistance at 18 ….

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Traded above it, then the buying pulled back. Maybe will take another bullish moment.

    That SPY IV bump seems to have subsided over the last half hour.

  • annamall

    Just went short the EUR/USD, everything up! Stocks, commodites, $DXY, something isn't right here @ all
    For now I am trading FX.

  • Johnny Quid

    Bears to pieces, get it right

    What does it mean?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    if you use ZSL you need to move in and out, i think it's safe to go long ZSL here with a stop around $7.40 and leave it on as a swing trade. if the count is correct, and I'm on EWI's count, which says wave 3 down is to begin at anytime, then ZSL will compound in your favor. if they are wrong on the count, then you'll be stopped out and can reenter later on. puts on slv are fine as well but probably more risk if the count is wrong

  • AS2009

    Yes – Woo is awesome :)

  • GDII

    i project the next high to be 1042. market may reach there slowly.
    play with caution.
    ps why i see you offline for a long while?

  • Bankrupt

    means they are vanished

    sorry, typing to fas

  • newbear

    50% short here.

  • Johnny Quid

    What gap are you talking about?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    that could easily work out for you, i'm holding Nov puts, we'll both probably do ok. it's in its final stages though

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    anna…u r on fire hun….i am also short eurusd and GBPUSD heavily now….Britsh pound looks awful

  • annamall

    :-) many thanks BHB!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Market sucks..It's just sitting in a hole…ZZZZZZZZZzzz

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    opened long EWZ puts position as $ strength play
    http://screencast.com/t/m6x4YXz8X

  • Iguanadon

    Actually it's sitting on the top of a mountain…

  • ckeltner

    K said earlier 103.94 is the swing high

  • ckeltner

    K said earlier 103.94 is the swing high

  • ropey

    Look the SPY last year right at the breakdown – 105-108 on the daily

  • onorio

    Hey A.!

    This time im gonna be diferent…

    Short EUR/JPY @ 135.60

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    market behaves real toppy, total disconnect, it only happens when the only buyers left are dumb retail catch the train crowd

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    my favorite saying! :)

  • marketmaker

    “This is a “denial rally” where nobody believes stocks can keep going up at this rate but funds can't afford NOT to chase it. With only three months left in the mutual fund year money managers are running out of time waiting for a correction. They are being forced to chase stocks higher despite the general consensus that a correction is imminent.” –Pete Stolcers

  • Hanuman

    Anna, I don't have a forex account; so can't trade forex. Is there any ETFs, through which I can get the same effect as shorting EUR/USD? Your help is highly appreciated.

    Thanks.

  • salvadorveiga

    To every contrarian speculator, take a loook at this:

    http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com/2009/08/they-s

    a bottom should be very near in US Dollar if not made already… media extreme pessimism is one indicator 😀

  • annamall

    You can trade the $DXY through UUP, I have long calls on this March 24 and always welcome Hanuman!

  • annamall

    That's short term top signal to me when they all are up. :)

  • Johnny Quid

    TNX dumped

  • annamall

    ok I am just short EUR with USD. so we are basically on same page
    :)

  • annamall

    that' right! hehehehe

  • salvadorveiga

    Anna my dear… welcome to the dark side of the force…ahem forex. eheheh… many have gone to forex and it is said many haven't returned 😛

  • Joe8888

    interesting article..

    The bankruptcy of Colonial Bank (CNB) was the largest bank-bankruptcy in the U.S. since several large, U.S. financial institutions collapsed last year – with the most recent being Washington Mutual, last fall. However, there is one huge difference between the mega-bankruptcies of last year and the collapse of Colonial Bank a week ago.

    During the large bank-failures of 2008, the acquiring institutions wrote-down the “assets” on the books of these banks by an average of 18% – according to a Bloomberg article. However, when BB&T Corp purchased Colonial, it immediately wrote-down Colonial's assets by 37%, double the amount of discounting done last year.

    What has changed between now and then? The legitimizing of fraudulent accounting, when the supposed “watch-dog” of U.S. accounting, the Financial Accountability Standards Board brought in new “mark-to-fantasy” accounting rules in the U.S. this spring ( see “FASB strong-armed into mark-to-fantasy accounting”).

    As the Bloomberg article points out, all U.S. bankers lie about the value of their assets – specifically the quantum of their future losses. The more they underestimate future losses, the less they put aside as “loan-loss reserves”. The less they put aside as reserves, the bigger they can pretend the bank's profits were. The larger the phony “profits”, the more they can give themselves as “performance bonuses”.

    This is not a new phenomena. In fact, U.S. bank-lying was found to have severely aggravated their last “banking crisis” in the 1990's through also consistently under-estimating/under-reporting the deterioration of their “assets”.

    Given this context, it makes it even more obvious how utterly ludicrous and irresponsible it was for the U.S.'s accounting “cop” to create new rules to greatly facilitate lying about assets. If you want a heroin-addict to stop using heroin, then you shouldn't hand that person a jumbo-pack of syringes. Clearly this politically-motivated change in U.S. accounting rules had nothing to do with “more accurate” accounting – which was the false pretext of the banksters, and the media propaganda-machine which serves them.

    The changes had two, and only two goals: allowing the weaker, Wall Street fraud-factories like Citigroup and AIG to pretend to be solvent, while for the slightly stronger members of the U.S. financial crime syndicate it was a “green light” to loot the same corporate treasuries which had just been stuffed full of U.S. taxpayer dollars.

    As I have observed previously, the “performance bonuses” which Wall Street hands out are rewarding one aspect of their performance: the ability of these career-criminals to lie. As Bloomberg wrote, the bigger the lies, the bigger the bonuses.

    Not surprisingly, bank-fraud rose by double-digits last year in the United States. However, what is a truly remarkable feat for this cast of compulsive liars is that despite the fact there were millions fewer mortgages financed last year, mortgage-fraud jumped 23% from 2007. It takes a truly dedicated group of criminals to achieve that sort of year-over-year gain in a collapsing market.

    However, the significance of this new level of lying in the U.S. financial sector goes beyond stealing all of the money from their own corporations – and calling it “performance bonuses” (Goldman Sachs is set to hand out more than 100% of its “profits” as “performance bonuses” this year). It once again raises the issue of bank-solvency for the sector, as a whole, and once again illustrates that the Geithner “stress tests” were nothing but a ludicrous sham.

    If the lies which the management of Colonial Bank were telling concerning their “assets” were twice as large as the average magnitude of bank-lying last year, then what does this tell us about the “stress-tested”, Wall Street fraud-factories? Having just finished scamming investors and institutions all over the world for trillions of dollars (leaving many of them in financial ruin), is there the slightest doubt that these champion-liars would be engaging in much greater falsification in their accounting than Colonial Bank?

    The difference in the U.S. now from a year ago is that every single category of bank loans are experiencing much higher rates of defaults and much higher rates of delinquencies than a year ago, yet in the fantasy-world of Wall Street accounting, suddenly almost all these banks are “profitable” again?

    Previously, critics of the new “mark-to-fantasy” accounting rules in the U.S., had to rely upon only overwhelming logic to discredit the claims of “profitability” from these professional liars. However, Colonial Bank provides us with the much sought-after “smoking gun”.

    As I wrote less than a week ago in “U.S. Banking crisis just BEGINNING”, with all categories of delinquencies near or at all-time records, and with a huge spike in mortgage-resets about to kick-in over the next two years, there was never a possibility that the U.S. financial crime syndicate had miraculously returned to “profitability”.

    Indeed, as I wrote less than a month ago (“Credit-risk spike means continued collapse for U.S. economy”), credit-reporting agency, TransUnion, recently released a report showing that its “credit risk” index just hit a new, all-time record in July. Much like loan delinquencies are a highly accurate indicator for future defaults, the soaring reading in “credit risk” is a highly accurate indicator of a pending rise in delinquencies.

    Thus, despite the constant stream of delusional hype which emanates from the U.S. propaganda-machine, there has never been the slightest doubt that the only possible direction for the U.S. financial sector (and the economy, as a whole) is down.

    Throughout this decade, the Wall Street banksters plundered more than $100 BILLION in fantasy “profits” from their global Ponzi-scheme – and then needed roughly twenty times that amount in government hand-outs to avoid a sector-wide collapse last fall. Then, as soon as that crisis (temporarily) passed, they began to immediately loot the taxpayer hand-outs, as well. At the same time, all of these fraud-factories have slashed their dividends to shareholders, adding to the massive losses of these investors from the melt-down in share prices.

    One might think that these shareholders might be getting tired of being financially “raped” by these banksters. However, as I pointed out in “Explaining U.S. Market Psychology”, more than 50% of the shares of these fraud-factories are held by the wealthiest 1% of the U.S. population. These ultra-wealthy aristocrats are more out of touch with the real world than was Marie Antoinette – when she offered the starving French masses “cake”, just days before they chopped off her head.

    While this is unlikely to occur in the United States (given the acute shortage of guillotines), it might be time for the Wall Street banksters to take heed of history.

    They may own the politicians. They may own the regulators. And they may simply own most of America. However, they don't own the billion or so guns currently in the possession of an increasingly angry American population.

    Massive economic suffering and a billion guns is a very dangerous mix!

  • Douala

    Hanuman
    Look at FXE

  • MJSgl

    Bought SPY Sep puts for a scalp.

  • Anonymous

    I did and now I can read my charts..which also explains why everything in Sweden looked funny and I woke up scared last week…

    Whats shakin S&P?

  • Johnny Quid

    Look at SPX

  • annamall

    Short term top when all $DXY, USO, Commodities, equities are all higher

  • ropey

    I use all 3 as discussed last week /ES, SPX and SPY – they all work, some have gaps, some don't and you need to use multiple timeframes.

  • AS2009

    David – what is your target for W5 ?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    u may short /6e

  • annamall

    Hey Sal! How are you? Yes I like the dark side, (I put in an order late at night OCO), then wake up some nice PIPS higher, I could be swayed to stay as well :)

    ;-P

  • mrclam

    Added more call spreads this morning, will sell the short side of them if we see a correction.

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Wait – if they write *down* the assets by twice as much (36 vs 18 %), aren't they lying *less*? Or is the article saying that the assets were written down to 36 cents on the dollar?

  • ckeltner

    He is basically saying that this bank writing down the assets at 36% is more in line and all the other (larger) banks who did it at half of that are full of it.

  • innatedc

    We have a large green candle on the 60min 30 year futs…..something is up…..

  • Hanuman

    Thanks Anna !

  • innatedc

    See my above comment…Anna…30 year tresury futs are up and gaining

  • annamall

    If the $DXY keeps up the strength we will see equities start to sell off soon.

  • annamall

    Yes, Inna good call, I think we have topped out for the day. :-)

  • TonyMontana

    Define Short Term Anna?

  • bdf72

    This weekend was a big shocker for me during a trip to Wally Land after watching my Texas Rangers get kicked by Tampa Bay. The bottom line was the amount of garage sales and vehicle sales by owner on the way to the store. Usually you see 1 or 2 cars people are trying to sell near a strategic location. On Saturday there was 24 cars for sale by different owners. This is in a small rural town population 2200 in the whole county. Garage sale signs everywhere. The DFW area had a free pass compared to other parts of the country but I feel it catching up. Natural Gas exploration has virtually stopped in the area and all the support industries have left recently along with employees. They are now layed off. Following up on Anna's comment retail vacancy is growing and any new retail recently built has been empty.

  • innatedc

    We are printing tick volatility numbers well below 150 on the 1min….usually means a problem with exchange orders….

  • AS2009

    Stopped out of my BAC calls @ 0.89 … will wait before entering any new positions ..

  • marcT

    Hey guys, I don't understand why silver is up huge when the dollar is up modestly? Is this because of a retracement in the gold/silver ratio? Mole, can you please post an update on this chart? Thanks!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    SRS possible double bottom, countdown buy yest, holding risk level (yellow line)
    http://screencast.com/t/jNcVaowqD3

  • marcT

    hey Anna!!! What's up? I really hope that $DXY strengthens soon. I don't know why it doesn't want to rocket up!

  • annamall

    Possible we gap fill from this morning soon! :) careful bulls

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I am watching in disbelief – every second house on our cds has car (or even 2) parked on the grass with for sale sign

  • annamall

    See my post below Marc, everything is up, sign of short term top…

  • annamall

    Woooo hoooo Tampa Bay, sor BDF..:-) had to do that.

  • annamall

    Tony, I think we have seen highs for the day, A retracement this week to 1015, 1008, long shot 1000 (but possible) before going higher. 😉

  • charles_smith

    Looks like the IV got pulled from the patient's arm by “accident.” We'll see when the monitors start beeping….DXY drip is definitely gone.

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Hi anna,
    What do you think about the rest of the day and tomorrow? Your calls have been spot on lately, keep it up girl.

  • marketmaker

    Where the heck is Mole?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    European vacation, inversed.

  • rhae

    SPY daily, it updates intraday… waiting for the parabolic trendline to bust… needs below 103.45 ( if I have my screen pixels lined up right)
    channel and trendlines short term
    http://screencast.com/t/iJ9B55fs

  • bdf72

    I would have done that to but paybacks are hell :)))))))…Rangers have a shot at the wildcard but Yanks are going to give them trouble this week. Love that little island in your area that you can take the ferry to from the Clearwater area. I think it is a park. Great place to get away from the herd…semi-saved my butt after dad screwed up the passport thing for kids at the airport while checking in.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I hope he knows who his guests are

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    bear flag /nq 144t

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    those blue lines on the chart

  • annamall

    God pass me the NO DOZE

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    the is a system to my madness – big profits – tight stops :)

  • annamall

    taken out his guests maybe?

  • annamall

    $TRIN on the rise, should be bearish for stocks as it goes up.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    what I saw “goldfishka” – I thought “might be Russian”, then I had to recall my Russian Language skills :) that was so long ago… and I don't live in NY :)
    ever since I came here – I could not force myself to read or watch russina books/movies – it is like on another planet :)

  • Johnny Quid

    When are the POMO's this week?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    feels like “watch out below” moment now

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    enlighten me plz – “DOZE”?

  • annamall

    Adding more SPY puts here.

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    With FNM, FRE accounting 700M shares already might be messing with $TRIN a bit

  • marketmaker

    I hope I can share this(from a free newsletter):

    Tim Knight writes:

    “I'll share one final item with you. I had breakfast with my boss, Tom Sosnoff, on Saturday, and we were talking about the markets. I always enjoy discussing the market with Tom, because even though our methods couldn't be more different, our conclusions are almost always the same.

    He has taken on a big FAZ position, and he was looking at a graph of it on his laptop during his flight out here. The stewardess was coming up on the aisle, glanced at his screen, and said to him, “No, no. That's not the one you want. You want FAS!”

    And that, my friends, is our Joe Kennedy Shoeshine Boy moment.”

    ______________

    mrswing.com/articles/Arcs_of_the_Covenant.html

  • annamall

    they are caffeine pills for when you want to wake up! :)

  • chumprop

    H&S just about compled on the /ES… neckline = 1030.75

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    the only sentiment left to change for market to dive is Karl getting bullish

  • annamall

    I concur! 😉

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I call it “Doorman syndrome” – works every time
    http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2008/06/door

  • Bankrupt

    he is mad like a raging bull today. well, not today, more like everyday.

  • annamall

    How about Atilla? LOL

  • goldfishka

    hi there :)
    i had no idea NY is the only place to speak russian. i am in canada, also
    living far from russian ghetto, but still read a bit in russian and we can
    get through public library new books and movies, so keeping in touch. and
    playing gazprom and vip of course!

    i really like your comments on ES, not contributing much myself – only
    started to trade this year and have nothign valuable to add yet.

  • Mercury2009

    Minimum target reached on SPX to close my long position from 985. Switched to short…might be a bit early.

  • ACJ

    Today and Wed

  • annamall

    Good point Vladz!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    he is too much like me with “going all in” – I don't need to amplify my stupidity

  • chumprop

    You just blew my mind…. that is scary!

  • Johnny Quid

    That will never happen

  • PRSGuitars

    I think he has a special-order bloomberg terminal with only 'sell' and 'sell harder' keys on it…

    similar to goldmans' terminals, but with 'pump futures', 'pump futures overnight' and 'buy at 3:30' keys. Sometimes they slip or spill their coffee and the 'revert to VWAP' key gets hit, but it's quickly negated with a flurry of 'pump futures' <EQUITY><GO> strokes.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    This market is in slow motion

  • Bankrupt

    actually he says he was bullish from 666 to 875. i believe him.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    This should be {iv} of 3 of… something…

  • annamall

    ZZZzzzzzzzzz

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    link please :)
    as I recall he was waiting 400

  • TheCrowe

    Anna, I have a hypothetical question regarding profit taking, if I may ask. If you are in a winning position and have based potential price exit targets on fib levels for instance, how do you manage the position once you've reached the first target? Do you like to sell a portion of your position and hold the remainder in hopes of the next target? or do you hold onto the whole thing and see how things play out? Ideally, I'd like to use trailing stops but am uber paranoid about what the MM's will do if they see one. Perhaps this is irrational. But it's very frustrating to take a small win, when a huge win was there if I had held on. (Snatching mediocrity from the jaws of victory, if you will.) Thanks so much! Richard

  • annamall

    I have tripled my put from this morning, wait for some action by EOD…in the meantime, BORING.

  • annamall

    Hey Crowe!
    Personally I take off 1/2 to 2/3's and then play with house's $ if I really feel the trend will go higher. I don't use any stops except in FX, the MM”s love to use a big broom and sweep out every's stop that they can.
    :)

  • SkiingBear
  • Bankrupt

    sorry no link, because it was in his payable section. but he says so, I believe him. I don't like that guy, but I wouldn't say he's a liar.

  • annamall

    hahahah I think your right PRS. He is hurting big time and I mean BIG!

  • Johnny Quid

    Keirsten are you seeing XOM today? /QM also at top of its 20-day channel. I'm thinking about getting some energy/ market shorts this afternoon.

  • Keirsten

    XOM may be heading for a kiss of the 200 EMA, so I'm not touching it yet. I've got my rifle pointed at FCX right now, but waiting for a bit longer.

  • Bankrupt

    yup, although we started to move now. she is tired, she's been running for 6 months now, almost as much as forrest gump. she can run a lot, but once that she decides it's time to stop, she stops.

    nice call btw again

  • annamall

    This morning's gap should fill by EOD.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    he is definitely honest and he is one smart cookie, but it conflicts with his trading, oh well…
    and I truly don't understand – is he really believes that anything can be changed?

  • Johnny Quid

    There is no volume on this downtrend in /es. I'm skeptical, going to wait until eod to consider taking a position!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    we really need more upside days to complete some counts…but …will it happen?

  • rhae

    SPY 103.45 my trendline, sometimes the pace picks up if enough people are watching the same lines

  • Bear Claw

    Anna, check out the vol on XLF on the 5 min, 2 or 3 bars ago. Think someone wants out?

  • rhae

    scratch the no doze

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    u r back! :)

  • Keirsten

    Out of ARIA at break even, not liking the lack action there. Will revisit at a later date.

  • Keirsten

    I never left! :-) I'm just having a really busy trading day today. This morning felt so frenetic it was like one week's worth of trading in the first hour. LOL

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    that was me

  • annamall

    Bear oh yea!! and $TRIN still rising.

  • Bear Claw

    lol DT

  • annamall

    me too got out at 2.28 lost 1$ hahahah but we tried. :)

  • annamall

    heheheh maybe so! :)

  • PRSGuitars

    MMs seeing stops is rather silly – why gun for (presumably) sub-$10k orders of stock, options, etc? Is it really worth their time even? Remember that if you assume your loss (with the stop) would be their profit, do they really want/need to move the market so much just for the net gain (your loss on the trade)? I simply mean… we're all small enough traders to likely be insignificant. Now, Sol @ xtrends is rolling 700 /es contracts (I, for example, use 2-4 MAX b/c that's what my acct can handle…so…)

    I've always heard to treat trades in 1/3rds. 1/3 gets sold when you reach the first real target, stopping point, probable (not possible) reversal zone, etc… this is to cover commissions and remove some risk from the position. If price comes back to where you bought/sold then you can decide to add the 1/3rd you just cut back on, OR, wait to add at a better price, OR, close out the trade entirely for 2/3rds @ breakeven and 1/3rd @ small profit so, net, flat to up effectively.

    Assuming you clear the first 1/3rd and the trade continues, most people shift one of the other 1/3rds (so, 50% of what you 'still have on' after the first 1/3rd gets taken out…) to stop @ breakeven. This removes, again, a total of 2/3rds of the risk of the position (with the remaining 1/3rd @ a stop below breakeven…) by clearing 1/3rd at a profit and having 1/3rd guaranteed flat at worst.

    Fib targets are good but too risky to bank on — you have to gauge strength as you're nearing fib clusters or else it's just as good to put sequential sell orders (or buy orders, w/e the opposite of your trade is) at various fibs (like, if you have a 3-wave move, A-B-C, then you assume C = a fib of A…so at 50% of A, 61.8% of A, 78.6% of A, 100% of A, 127.2% of A, 161.8% of A…clearing 20% at each).

    Trailing stops are fine but don't ever really seem to capture the move enough to be worthwhile unless you're trading large ranges or you adjust the trailing stop to tighten (as you would tighten stops on the 2nd and 3rd 1/3rds of the trade described above if you didn't want to try to target an exit, per se…)

  • Johnny Quid

    This isn't 875! It's 1035, big fucking difference…

  • Keirsten

    I'd rather take a small hit than visit the house of pain. 😉

  • Mercury2009

    I don't try to guess what the market is going to do in the next days or weeks. I just trade based on price targets and if it takes one day or 10 days to get to those targets don't matter to me. Again I believe EWT is much too subjective to be useful. Support and resistance is not.

  • Keirsten

    Short FCX, but won't stay married to this trade.

  • annamall

    me too girl! :)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Looks like a dive here

  • annamall

    Getting my gap fill soon! yeee haahhhh

  • Bear Claw

    that's the way rollercoasters are right at the top.

  • dollar

    Looks like they heard you Rhae!

  • Johnny Quid

    Volume picked up there but I got a extreme tick buy… nice call anna.

  • Iguanadon

    Oh my god, that markets are crashing!

    Hey, if they can go up .75% and the media says they skyrocketed, I can say we're crashing when we're almost back to break even for the day.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    oh-ho globex low bounce #1

  • Keirsten

    Does anyone have the cheat sheet on the next POMO dates handy?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    turn on CNBC fast – tell me when they will start saying “market is down on some profit taking”

  • chumprop

    What are you talking about? 1:09pm was the largest 1min volume tick of the day…

  • PRSGuitars

    Impressed you had the guts to get extra short ahead of the 1:00 EST typical pump — good for you! Holding a tiny selection of puts, didn't get gutsy enough to add up near 1035. Silly me — in retrospect, if not there, where else…?

    been scalping /es, will add to puts at 1030 if we get there again…bah. Glad someone caught this drop nicely enough!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I am trying as hard as I can not to comment on … “gap” sentence!

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Ok, well at least the cubes are down to the opening price. Now there's the small matter of that gap…

  • TheCrowe

    Thank you both very much! I appreciate your point(s) of view on this rather remedial question :)

  • Iguanadon

    HA! Perfect.

    I'd prefer to just sit here in the peace and quiet.

  • CaptainAnarchy
  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yup – same here – that is why I asked you to do that :)

  • annamall

    :-)

  • Keirsten

    You're the best! Thank you!

    Now back to putting my heel into FCX to give it a gentle push off the cliff.

  • annamall

    I thought Molester had it on RHS of page here. (a link) ?

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    GBP/USd just broke nicely as expected….anna u thinking es to what area on the gap fill?

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Scratch that – that was the gap and I was looking at the wrong line.

  • onorio

    Since i smell some weakness, im short @ 1027.5

    Looking for a 50% retrace of last up move till arround 1010-1015, than i will put my false horns and join the bullshit.

  • annamall

    THANK GOD NEW POST…so we don't have to see that pic anymore!! LOL

  • annamall

    I think we fill this mornings gap up, then next stop 1015-1018 :)

  • annamall

    LOL 😀

  • rhae

    IC todays gap, I also see that there is not much support on SPY 60m until 101.79

    “Beam me down Scotty”

  • rhae

    my reply probably lost in the mad scramble… I have next SPY major support near 101.79

  • Osso

    Dr. sent email abt. entering some positions….
    Do you know what are they…???? tks

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Anna figured out that I am not contradicting on “market gap” subject :) :)

  • Johnny Quid

    Post was at 1:02. See post above…. Volume on the 1:09 bar matched the second bar of the day. Either way it looks a bit impulsive

  • Keirsten

    Hi Alpha- when you get a minute…. we have a trader using SD and he wanted to know if VWAP is available in that platform. Please let me know when you can. TIA

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    that is why I do not use EW
    I use D-wave :)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    that is why I do not use EW
    I use D-wave :)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Of course I did few attempts to re-read Bulgakov or Ilf and Petroff, but it just did not feel as good as it was back home. (and my Mom was a Russian language/literature teacher – so I probably red 5000 books :)

    And after watchign “Ironiya Sudbi” for 10 minutes – I just turned it off – I still love my native country and I wanted to keep as many good memories as possible

    It is like trying to laugh at Jivanetsky when you watch him here – I have no idea why it shhould be funny anymore :)

  • goldfishka

    i can hear you – was thinking it will be a good idea to watch over old new

    year “obyknovennoe chudo”, but lost interest quickly as well.

    have you tried to read Akunin? i do enjoy his books even as they are a bit

    naive. liked most of Pelevin, but can't get trhough Empire V for some

    reason, afraid i am not enough glamourous for it.

    have you seen Domovoi? the move is just below average, but the music is

    amazing. don't have name of the guy Kato something… check it out,