Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Tenerife Awaits
59

Tenerife Awaits

by The MoleMarch 7, 2017

After an extremely profitable first quarter I think most of you would agree that I have more than earned myself a little vacation. And boy do I need one as I have been feeling myself running on depleting reserves over the past few weeks. Yes, even the Mole is only human (sort of). Also, beyond the polished facade and daily evil deeds there had been a lot happening behind the scenes, some of which I have no doubt Scott will be talking about as he’ll be filling in during my two week absence. And may I just say – are you in for a rare treat ladies and leeches!

Over the past two years Scott has receded a bit into the background regarding his presence on the blog and in the comment sections. But just because he has been out of sight doesn’t mean he hasn’t been working his butt off to remain on top of his game. Which is why I am very excited that he’s volunteered to keep you guys entertained while I am resting those old bones and hopefully have a chance to recharge my batteries. What he has planned for you will be a mixture of three categories:

  • Market updates including entries and the managing of campaigns.
  • A series on tape reading, per your requests.
  • A series on system development, also per popular request.

The last category will undoubtedly be the most exciting for the ones among you who have been struggling to not only develop and build a trading system but failed to actually stick with it over time. And you would not be alone. Scott and I have been through the motions many times over and in the course of the past five years we have learned many valuable lessons, most of them the hard way. Clearly there will be some older material that will need to be dusted off in order to refresh your memories and get the noobs up to speed. But as always you can expect a ton of new system related topics, so keep your pencil sharpened and take full opportunity of Scott’s time while he’s here.

Your Opportunity

Now make no mistake: This is your opportunity to go through a two week trading crash course that some people literally charge thousands of Dollars for. And we do it for chump change that you’ll probably find underneath your couch cushions. Which reminds me that this may be a great opportunity to once and for all abandon your leech status and join our little club. May I suggest a Gold or Zero membership? The latter is preferred if you are trading the E-Mini on a regular basis. Yes, there will be subscriber content as well, so you subs will be getting your money worth, as always.

Systems & The Zero

The systems as well as the Zero will continue running as usual. If you have any issues don’t hesitate to email me, but bear in mind that it may take me a day to get back to you. Also I have no idea how good/bad Internet access will be there and my capabilities will be limited.

Caveat

There will be no twitter alerts and no email notifications while I’m gone. So you’ll have to simply check the site if there’s a new post. I trust that this isn’t too much to ask. If Murphy’s Law strikes as it often does then fixing the problem may take a little longer than usual. Scott has my number, so if anything super urgent happens or the site melts down then I’m sure he’ll let me know asap.

2017-03-07_spoos_update

Alright now, the E-Mini hasn’t been doing much and I was considering to pull it ahead of my trip. However after some consideration I have decided to keep it in the running but to move my stop to < 2357. The little asterisk is a reminder to mention that I also had to reduce my position size by about 30%. Why is that? Because a larger stop automatically exposes me to more risk as my open contracts now will accrue more loss when reaching the new ISL. So a wider stop means a smaller position size. If that confuses you then I strongly suggest that you play around a little with our handy futures risk calculator.

2017-03-07_AUDUSD_entry

The AUD/USD is a long position here with a stop below 0.754. I very much like the outlook on the daily panel and if that spike low and the still rising 25-day BB are breached then it’ll probably head much lower and perhaps even dip below the 100-day SMA near 0.75.

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

volcano-base

And that’s it for me for now. I’ll be checking in regularly during my absence and may actually be posting on the 13th and 14th as Scott himself will be traveling during those days. In between you are without doubt in very capable hands and I hope you will enjoy the little change of pace. I’ll let you know once I’m safely settled at my new volcano base off the East Coast of Africa. You are invited to drop by as I am still looking for willing test subject for my new industrial laser cutter.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Tenerife?….seriously?!

    some people never learn from bad trips, bad food, or bad trades.
    😉

    [History]
    http://evilspeculator.com/the-long-road-to-tenerife/
    no whining this time.
    and good luck on the internet connection.

  • OJuice

    Nice pull.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thanks.

    To the newbs, there is also an ancient legacy that when Mole travels, all Hell breaks loose in the US Markets.

    time will tell. correlation does not = causation.

    EDIT: but that’s the way to BET.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m thinking this might play out this time….
    entered L miners, tight stop, if its going to bounce, now is the time

  • Ronebadger

    Nice aerial pic…what island is that…I’ll visit

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I think there’s more down to go, but that’s just me.

    candy from a baby and all that.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0e5e696f35399c0e7f01657f0b007a1383a1c228d9756b120fa62515b2c9891a.png

  • StockTalker

    Could be a strong wave here.

  • ridingwaves

    could go either way, rates are going up next week, sell off for Mole Vaca..
    Brilliant….
    Trump just took out one of my trades with a drug price tweet….

  • AcoBrasil
  • Yoda

    As long as he takes real holidays. When he chimes in to check on us, whilst being on leave, it jinxes the curse.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    10 yr tomorrow might be interesting with rates set to rise next week…

  • Tomcat

    It doesnt feel like a TREND day

  • ridingwaves

    for Kudra…Ackman lost billions because he stayed in too long and held firm on his beliefs…
    https://s23.postimg.org/wljeuz2kr/VRX_crushed_smart_folks.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Added to longs this morning.

  • Tomcat

    Its all hinging on the Friday job report. 2.5% is a bit high imo.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes….long “feels” all wrong and looks it too from that graph…see what you mean. For the time being long just looks to me like a technical trade.

  • Tomcat

    Ohhh missed that, thanks for the heads up.

  • ridingwaves

    this comment is not to pick on you, As Ed mentioned, take some time to build system, enroll in Scott’s class over next 2 weeks while Mole’s gone…..he will not powder puff it, not saying Mole does either, all is not lost…..fight the smart fight or a tight fight, its’ hard to land punches when your throwing them from so far away from the opponent

  • Tomcat

    This industry will continue to be under fire, as long as these politicians keep chitting on it

  • ridingwaves

    IBB still in bullish trend, 285 is heavy support….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, the trip was great – it was just that first day we had issues.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Rebot

  • Tomcat

    Unless Bernie and Trump tag team to double chit on it

  • Mark Shinnick

    Really is an amazing phenomena.

  • ridingwaves

    I believe he doubled down at the purple line…..or better known in the ridingwaves house as the Barney line…

  • StockTalker

    Going for a ride kids

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • kudra

    I do not feel picked on, not at all. I need guidance and appreciate all of your input, as I attempt to right the ship once again. Currently I am in the not trading mode. I have three open positions – TZA (way too many shares @ $25.22 – yep should have jettisoned that one a long time ago. awful trading); remaining shares of NUGT (@8.79); and remaining shares of GENE (bought in 2015 for nearly $5. Finally sold 69% of the position this month at $1.11. Will dump remainder soon. stop at $1)

  • AcoBrasil

    So now the overhead gap was filled on a weak run-up.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    That is awesome. I won’t be able to join in until March 15th, because I will be traveling home from Texas until that date. This is exciting.

    I have a new job that is a yearly job, but only during April 1st through June 30th. I will be scoring educational tests that are taken by children including tests like the SAT. Normally working full time during that time each year or at least for 30 hours per week..

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Better study up! Quite a humbling experience if you score lower than the average 16 year old 😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, Bot volatility with a very tight stop. Imagine it pops or crushes fairly soon.

  • Mark Shinnick

    What is your computer ordering trading platform?

  • AcoBrasil

    You need to keep a short leash on leveraged ETFs such as TZA due to the fact that that most clear their derivative purchases at the end of the day and start fresh the next morning. This can have a positive effect if the underlying component is trending in the right direction, but compound losses (the infamous decay effect) if not.

    “This divergence can be explained by a short example. Assume the Nasdaq falls 2% in one day and rebounds with a 1% gain the following session. The index will have a two-day loss of 1.02%. An ETF that gives investors double the index will result in a 2.08% loss after two days. If the ETF returned exactly twice the index, the return should be -2.04%. Granted the difference is small in the example, but it can increase drastically over time with compounding. If a stock falls 2%, it must rally 2.04% to get back to even. Over time, this takes a toll on performance.”

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Alright guys – I’m heading out. Let’s hope the plane isn’t piloted by a manic depressive German. See you guys on the other side.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Good on ya, re-create !

  • Edd

    Do yourself a favor Kudra. Put a generous trailing stop under your positions and walk away, let the market take you out now. Stop, walk away. Alcoholics, addicts, they do not start healing from slowing down or managing better their addictions. You do not need better trading advice or plans. You need to work on you. You do not have a market problem. Please, it will be the best gift to give yourself right now. Good luck to you.Regards.

  • kudra

    Enjoy it!

  • kudra

    I’m going to heed that advice and chill. Thank you.

  • BobbyLow

    This topic comes up all the time and I have to respectfully disagree a little with your premise. Although you are correct in that there is definite shrinkage over time with these things, I look at trading the 2X’s and 3X’s ETF’s in a similar manner that I do trading options. It’s funny but I never hear too much about the massive errosion in the value of Options especially Leaps.

    For me shrinkage of holding on to a Leveraged ETF that does not expire is simply the cost of doing business. And this cost of doing business with Leveraged ETF’s is much, much less than the cost of business trading Options.

    Leveraged ETF shrinkage is kinda like the shrinkage that happens after diving into very cold water. It shrinks a little but stays intact. :)

  • AcoBrasil

    Hey Bobby,

    I actually agree with everything you just said. One appeal is that gains are compounded if an ETF is trending in your direction. For example:

    1. Day one: TZA opens at $10. $RUT falls 3.33333%. TZA closes at $11 (10% gain).

    2. Day two: TZA opens at $11. $RUT falls 3.33333%. TZA closes at $12.10 (10% gain off $11 base)
    Very important to track TZA.IV, which doesn’t always match the close (or open). Instruments that track contango-led markets (esp VIX and NG) pose their own special sets of challenges.

    I have never traded options.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (GG waves frantically)

  • Edd

    Your welcome Kudra. Go hug on your love ones. If you really want to do this it will be there when your ready. Take care.

  • kudra

    Thanks, man. Already out of NUGT. $31K lost in a week on that one.

  • AcoBrasil

    Second sale concluded. Today’s downward pressure is now off.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Hey, Kundra, The thought occurred to me a couple of times before… you seem like a shill who yanks the chains of this site’s legitimate participants. Its a pattern.

  • kudra

    This thought has occurred to several keen folks here, but it is not the case. My losses are very real, and every word I’ve written has been truth. I would not waste the time or space with bs. I share my personal experience because it is cathartic, and perhaps it inspires others not to make the same mistakes.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice arguendo….seen all this from you before. Your credibility is in downtrend. I know better than to be chasing narcissists.

  • kudra

    I don’t believe I’m a narcissist, Mark, and i’m sorry you think I am coming to this place to yank chains and tell tales for attention. I’ll step back and yield the board to stalwarts like you. Peace.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…all the expected nice sounding words. Tuff Love, man, get real with yourself somehow. Its the results by which we are judged.

  • BobbyLow

    I think we are very close in agreement AB. And one thing you touched upon is how these things have a built in Beta effect that goes both ways. For example I will use the same amount of dollar value when going long or short with NUGT or DUST because obviously 100 Shares of NUGT at $7.65 per share worth $765 is not going to move the same as 100 Shares of DUST at $40.11 per share worth $4,011. But on an opening position $2,000 worth of NUGT is equal to the Value of $2,000 worth of DUST. So lets say you go short and buy $2,000 worth of DUST and the Miners fall and your $2,000 Campaign is now worth $2,500. Because the your Campaign has a higher dollar value against the underlying index, each corresponding move becomes exponential and greater in value. If the reverse happened and the original Campaign went against you and was now worth $1,500 then the corresponding move is less as a percentage against the underlying index.

    And regarding your last sentence . . .”Regarding the decay, it does matter over time, especially if the instrument is trending against you. . .” This is absoulutely correct because if these things move against you in the form of a trend you would be foolish to hold on to it because they will clean your clock. OTOH, I still say that if one of these things actually “trends” in your favor than just let in run and enjoy it because the shrinkage will be minor and inconsequential when compared to your net gain.

  • AcoBrasil

    Can’t disagree with that. We have certainly seen the benefit of holding XIV or TNA through this rally.

  • BobbyLow

    This Cartoon “Michigan J. Frog” is dedicated to Crude Oil 2017. It illustrates how fantastic promise an actual performance can be totally different.

    For your viewing pleasure. :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wd_6Y0wQOA

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Enjoy your vacay

  • Mark Shinnick

    PIRS within constraints?

  • Yoda

    Tape looks like Mole just boarded his plane.

  • Scott Phillips

    NEW POST!

    But due to my own incompetence its showing up AFTER this post. Refresh, take a read, questions in the comment section

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    It’s actually before this post. Refresh and hit the < Prev button, and it's there.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Went home with some volatility, covered 2/3 in after market.