Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Thank God It’s Doomsday
124

Thank God It’s Doomsday

by The MoleNovember 2, 2017

If you still pay any attention to the incessant clickbait peddled on perma-bear frequented watering holes like ZeroEdge then ‘thank God it’s doomsday’ has probably become your daily maxim since back in 2010, give or take a year. Most likely you are either not a trader or were eventually forced to give it up after watching your account being taken to the woodshed on several occasions. To the more nimble and reality focused rest of us this does however not mean that we should let ourselves grow complacent. After eight plus years of almost continuous upside advances the question bodes as to how much upside we have left here before we’re forced to endure a deep correction.

2017-11-02_realized_volatility

The panel on the bottom shows us realized daily volatility on the E-Mini, which seems to be in the process of expansion off its lower range. Clearly another drop or two back down are possible but those pinches I highlighted do suggest that the quiet days may soon be behind us.

2017-11-02_spoos

What’s causing the current expansion is increasing short term volatility which may be enjoyed by swing traders but does raise concern as to the prospect of an impending correction, at least if prior history is any guide here.

2017-11-02_YM_bull_bear

The YM has been more bullish than the ES recently but even here we are seeing signs slowing and the channel I drew is where I see the respective bullish and bearish inflection points. A breach of either threshold will most likely translate into continuation in the respective direction.

2017-11-02_VIX_VXV

With the VIX repeatedly dipping into single digits downside protection in the form of longer term puts continues to be available at rock bottom prices but, more importantly, may improve sleeping patterns as we continue to advance to ever more lofty heights.

In ratio with the VXV the VIX offers us a view on the Implied Volatility Term Structure (IVTS), which for me has long been one of the most important measures of market sentiment. Divergences here can offer important and early hints of future market direction. What I’m seeing right now is compelling but not yet conclusive. The formation it’s painting right now could either be concluded or could turn into something bigger. Note however that while that diagonal I drew is being respected the odds slightly favor the bullish side in IV (and thus the bearish side in equities).

Bottom Line

Impending doom and gloom has been predicted almost every single day since 2009. A large majority of retail traders have already completely missed out on what will one day be called the Great Bull Market of the 21st century. And s long as a significant portion of traders continue to look for a reversal odds will continue to favor the long side.

As always we’ll resist the urge to jump the gun and attempt to call a top. But all that said – when dark clouds loom near the horizon you may want to think about bringing along an umbrella. Which is why I keep harping on downside insurance in the form of long term puts. For now we take note and remain vigilant as it’s a bit too early too consider short positions. And when that time finally comes there will be plenty of time to jump into the ensuing feeding frenzy.

Campaign Updates

2017-11-02_gold_update

Gold was almost nabbed yesterday and I hope your stop near break/even was spared like mine. The formation is still developing but is increasingly gaining credibility. Nothing to do here right now and my stop remains where it is.

2017-11-02_ZN_update

10-year bond futures turned out to be a great entry yesterday and once again the formation is starting to look better by the minute. Here however we keep our ISL where it is for now as we are still far from reaching 1R MFE.

2017-11-02_crude_exit

The crude finally met is maker but it left us with a juicy 2.5R in profits. I have further and rather important perspectives on this down in the subscriber section. If you’re not a member yet then now is good time!

2017-11-02_soybeans_update

Soybeans doesn’t seem to know what to do with itself but the daily formation keeps reminding me to shut the hell up and let it do its thing. After all, if I wasn’t in this already I would probably be tempted to grab it now.

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Yoda

    Just as I finished reading this post, one big red candle shown up on ES.

  • Yoda

    Ooohh, this sell-off looks real

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – exactly – well, at least the headline fits! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    To quote the Gerb: This could be the beginning of something beautiful.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4902a60c30cdbf3f1b52482f1f1551125af485356076c637df948899abf11264.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, tza needs some mojo above here. Litlle is quite meeting the thresholds right now.

  • HD

    GM all, GC met it’s C wave target at 1285.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Yoda

    Big boys planning to make some room for a Santa rally?

  • Julie

    TAL A high flyer ….. Gravity ! Daily chart Down to it’s 144 ema ; support zone and 61.8% retracement. 60 min chart positive divergences Must have a bullish close above it’s daily 5 ema Daily and 60 min charts shown Blue vertical line shows early entry on 60 min chart https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/93318fe10674b0f543b9c59ba7fe2c95a24dc59ff15377fbce16ffc0691db86c.jpg JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8bd2eb9948f2c8bb4f553238c0dd1a140f304c9645dc4584dc9023d1e44bf22a.jpg

  • Yoda

    Timing is everything 😉

  • Yoda

    I was looking at the 5 min zero signal. The day’s setting up as a “short the bounce day”

  • HD

    $SPX 2575 pivot again

  • Julie

    HD SPX A bounce this a.m exactly off the Ichimoku Cloud conversion line (8) JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99fdf8f2a0b341ebdaff458890313b180d3e6f47c5d9978accb7426016038756.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GET. OUT.

    I’ll be watching corporate bonds.
    and if the RSI 50 fails.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p33768590548

  • HD

    Looks good. Glad that is working for you. I’m more of a price action guy. HWB 2544-2588= 2566

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, I’m short via sjb last few days.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Yoda 1st of month retirement money entering the market. Interesting to see how it plays out ….. Big Boys selling to the funds ? HMMM ! JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Let’s all “keep it frosty”.

  • HD

    this chart almost gave me a visual occipital seizure 😉 all in good humor.

  • Julie

    I hear ya HD ! NDX a bounce this a.m off it’s daily 5 ema. Will add to short from yesterday QQQ’s with a bearish close below the 5 ema JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Indeed. We might look at it sort of like orbital decay. To preserve the system there must occur a reboot into higher orbit. Let’s keep in mind this whole phenomena is the end extreem of a 3 generation move in rates begun 1981.https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/63432c4ac33105e897051dcab06afe893e094bc2825ed11b13bc43f2117e6c06.png

  • StockTalker

    Similar trade with /ZT

  • Julie

    HD You are a waver which I am not ….. You may find this 10 min chart interesting i.e. three waves down from yesterday’s high down to the Ichimoku Cloud conversion line (8) in daily chart shown above. Yesterday I drew a support zone and the bounce from support zone matches the Conversion line (8) The blue vertical line on 10 min chart denotes early entry. Again with myself support and resistance ; the Ichimoku Cloud ; Exp Moving Averages and overbought and oversold levels.Shown is the10 min chart SPX JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5a798cb4ebc55c647459c210c3707f7ca2a69ab80c52e24def74fbd77c795f6a.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s a little early, but yeah..

    Loser of the Day
    [THS]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=THS&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88690796490

  • StockTalker

    Everyone I discuss the stock market with are all in and looking for higher prices:)

  • Mark Shinnick

    I think it goes to animal female multitasking strengths.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Stalktalker Short QQQ’s from yesterday I shorted on the 30 min chart
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Higher prices would be consistent with blowoff theory in a multi-generational move.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    did you say stalk? freudian slip.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Female social media conditioning.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    All men are pervs. Except for the handsome ones!
    😉

  • StockTalker

    Die you B$$$$!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    LOL

  • Julie

    I did Typo ! Sorry ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    How to kill a vampire?

  • StockTalker

    Silver

  • StockTalker

    In the used car bus, my day will come. No more cheap automobiles, lol

  • Mark Shinnick

    Damm right; If SHTF in social order from 2 generations of stock market investment gone up in smoke, we’d better keep some handy.

  • StockTalker

    Have been stockpiling it since 1975

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m handy so buy MB’s not worth fixing to most; its niche.

  • Julie

    I hear Ya Stocktalker ! QQQ’s 30 min chart shown . T https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bb287c335a2b586f9024f92f453aa971e5da17a48633aa56764cbe9078190c20.jpg hick black line is the 65 ema which corresponds to the daily 5 ema Bust the Channel and close below the 65 ema You B$$$$ ! JULIE

  • HD

    Waves are just trends. Today’s move to HWB quantifies the recent 5 wave rally. New wave on deck.

  • StockTalker

    Agree, remember the tech bubble?

  • StockTalker

    Wish they held their value better, Jag’s new were 75k. Now you can’t get rid of them.

  • HD

    TBH I got a little whipsawed this week. Came in bearish 2 days in a row. 1 worked and the other not so much. You can’t lean on EW in a vacuum. Just 1 layer of probability. Today’s move and specifically last nights move to HWB in ES helped the patterns IMO. 2575P has been a big deal

  • Julie

    YUP ! Cmon ! I am ready !
    JULIE

  • HD

    I too have many shiny coins…. oh well they make nice party gifts if nothing else.

  • StockTalker

    Lol

  • StockTalker

    This reminds me of the 2k crash but X2, back then I told myself that I would prepare myself for the next one. So, realistically did not miss a fn thing.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, its really great to be the beneficiary of that and then feel no big deal to simply run them into the ground. Meanwhile all the noses-in-the air can pay for it all. One of these rush-rushers hit my SL the other day, we settled for cash on the spot.

  • Julie

    GDX Still hold a small long probe The MoFo is consolidating on the daily chart and must have a bullish close above the daily Ichimoku Cloud conversion line (80 approx. 22.72 Stop is in place https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2a541e64532c631f87b3e3c162877c47dc6c45f2c7f4de6cfb50d39f6a81921a.jpg JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Exactly, have allot of cars right now. Fun to drive them cheap:)

  • Yoda

    Same here. And they say things like:” The market will never crash again” , ” I am up 40% for the year, I can’t lose even if the market drops” , etc. They complaining about not having enough liquidity to buy dips, because they all in long already in FANG stocks…
    Never seen so much chest thumping in my trading life and so little consideration for risk.

    One day the chickens will come home to roost…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…around LA, for example, I drive the $500.00 Dodge Caravan 80k miles. The image-conscious types who pay big time to get whatever they seem to value all stay the hell out my way.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    agreed.
    but remember, the tops of 1998, 2000, 2007 were rounded and choppy.

  • StockTalker

    Lol, that the great thing about it!

  • Yoda

    Not calling the top, just relating what I see or hear.

    The animal spirit taking place right now is indicative that dips are going to be bought for a little while.

  • StockTalker

    Times have changed though, this is nothing like we have seen. Difficult to make comparisons.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG Great heliport ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    You were sucking on a giant nipple?

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….and that is exactly the opportunity when more-and-more participants have no personal nervous system experience to relate it all to.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This gives a bit more insight into your trading art. Getting a sense of how others find edge is what attracted me to the ES blog.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Hey…wasn’t that a Millenium Falcon, or something else’s landing area?

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Except that it is false fallacy logic, it really is true that “this time is different”.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d9f4ce942d6fc9bc549fef06e647c9f764eb52452c177893668e8385c8a1d09.jpg

  • Julie

    GG GDX could be dead as it is inversely correlated with $TNX Daily chart a bounce off the lower channel line. A strong close above the resistance blue horizontal dotted line matching the Ichimoku Cloud conversion line (8) $TNX CHART JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/961ef7ff136cab4c9a664257299a93eccaa81a1a6ff93a99d6b23e2eeee529b2.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG As stated previously SPX A perfect bounce today off the daily Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) shown in a chart below 2 hrs
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GG $TNX is inversely correlated with $GOLD I meant $GOLD not GDX
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Can you explain what that means? What % of the market do you figure bases their trading upon it?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes. never confuse the two.
    sometimes they dance together, sometimes THEY DON’T.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Mark Shinnick

    The whole life-wasting strategy is denial; its one explanation for these incessant time-only corrections that disregard history’s reality. Still, a short setup is hanging in there.

  • HD

    I’m no economist or CPA but this tax reform thing is a big hand out to C corp’s at the expense of people making 150-300K. 60% of which will pay more. 50-149K 30% will pay more. Tax policy center. Top 1% get $129,000 tax cut. That’s my takeaway after first glance.

  • Julie

    Mark Only traders and investors that utilize Eastern TA which I find to be far superior to Western TA. Everyone uses the 10 – 20 – 50 and 200 sma. I use fib exp moving averages . An example is a chart that I posted this a.m. TAL down to it’s daily 144 ema which is a fib exp moving average . In lieu of the 10 – 20 – 50 and 200 sma if you are going to use simple moving averages then use the 40 – 80 – 160 sma The Ichimoku Cloud I use 8,21,55 (fib numbers) in lieu of the standard 9,26,52. JULIE

  • HD

    I was thinking there may be a real estate trade but found out everyone beet me to that. Very bad for home owners and new construction especially.

  • HD
  • Mark Shinnick

    drv appears to be setting up. Tax could be an excellent sheeple “excuse” trigger for whatever comes out of this general equities setup.

  • StockTalker

    Sold them, lol

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    DRV, DRV.
    you could almost play the VIX..with the correlation.
    😉

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p87736493070

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah..that 3x is very interesting. As the key asset more so than stocks that relates to most person’s daily lives and “feelings of wealth”. real estate confidence maybe the dog which wags everything else.

  • HD

    no trade for me, I need to learn all these ETF’s.

  • Julie

    MARK Here is a 30 min chart of the QQQ’s Now I inserted the fib moving averages 7 and 18, which are the equivalent of the 21 and 55 on the 10 min chart. Also inserted is the 65 ema which corresponds to the daily 5 ema . I also inserted the 30 min 89 ema. As you can see the pattern is a series of lower highs and lower lows.. Now a reversal and goes above the upper down trend line and upper boundary of the Ichi Cloud would be bullish. As you can see also the low today was a 30 min hammer candle near the 30 min 89 ema would be bullish So far today price has been contained within the daily 5 ema (30 min 65 ema ) except for the low bouncing off the 30 min 89 ema (89 is a fib number) I shorted the QQQ’s yesterday in a post when it breached the lower trend line of the channel Shown is the 30 min chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/34b32ffba2cbad05879961b69aa268b877fa3b58a8d805ad7a66be5c8abd262f.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its those trend lines that make the most sense to me; the upside line, and that downside line to takeout the 89ema.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • Julie

    SPX Not a short yet ! Needs a bearish close below the lower channel coinciding with a bearish close below the Ichi Cloud baseline (21) approx. 2564 and daily 21 ema approx. 2558, Also a RSI swing failure JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/30bdbde50d4ea5e61db87ed6bc3a450b4ccb5a068c00e0d9ee354f2e1d693fe3.jpg

  • Julie

    Great Mole ! thanks for your hard work Chief !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Sour.
    I missed the Bitcoin Train.
    (weeping, gnashing of teeth)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Dinner tonight at the GG residence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdkS0TgEG30

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I aim to please :-)

  • Mark Shinnick

    It was upon a silver coin I first saw “In God we trust”. Hungry or in other need in a EMP’d or other disordered environment but with real coin in hand, priceless.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I will sell you this magic prime number for $1Million.
    You and only you can resell it, by virture of a magic blockchain registry.

    ready? {smirk}

    Belphegor’s Prime: 1000000000000066600000000000001. is a palindromic prime number, with 666 hiding among the zeros. Please also note the ominous presence of 13 zeros.

  • Julie

    Hey Sports fans and GG LOL ! Intraday 30 min chart QQQ’s A possible bearish head and shoulder pattern developing ? Rather symmetrical https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7bf148371e665482edb0f1038dd1d9bc8f2a3f6769e6e20e8361774dc7006c9f.jpg HMMM ! JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG I have the next winning Powerball ticket for Saturday night that I will sell you for Let’s say a paltry grand ! Guaranteed to win !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Sounds like an options seller.
    You sell options? I’m going to choke you!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Nope.
    Bollinger /STO support on the hourly.
    =P

    http://stockcharts.com/public/1006933/chartbook/482043827;

  • Julie

    See it GG Thanks !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m here to help.

    Bonus: BB 20 on the $VIX hourly.
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1006933/chartbook/481107702;

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…one question I like to ask myself at certain times is “How does this all seem setup to rip the shorts a new AH.”

  • Yoda
  • Yoda

    HYG is dropping on the 5 min.

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    WHAT!!?

    87.97 magic line.

  • Tomcat

    Anyone else looking at $RBOB?
    http://schrts.co/6DW3EH
    A short with a 1.8 stop is warranted in my view.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ve got a 87.85 objective….but the world has gone mad.

  • HD

    C=A 2580 2- 10 handle rallies today off HWB

  • HD

    Friday: monthly payrolls (est. 300K), trade deficit, ISM services an factory orders.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    time check.

  • HD

    HAGWE all, back to chasing deer manana.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    87.98 close.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Yoda

    310K on investing.com
    These are big estimates for NFP

  • Mark Shinnick

    Millennials: Communism sounds pretty chill 22% of them have a favorable view of Karl Marx and a surprising number see Joseph Stalin and Kim Jong Un as “heroes”

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/millennials-communism-sounds-pretty-chill-2017-11-01

  • Yoda

    SMH indeed

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    tomatoe, tamato.

    aren’t all iSM’s just a label?
    we know how it really works.

    http://i.imgur.com/fEy56nM.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    US Dollar weekly.
    this week has been a rest period for the worthless paper IMHO.

    If it tries to go higher, it *should* meet a ceiling – red arrow.

    (what use to be support – black arrow – is now resistance.)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/06f624626b29385202456a767a3511d21732483452e96b7c0652291b61f8fbb5.png
    -GG

    let it burn, all of it. Muwahahaha

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Did I spot the bottom last month? sort of.
    just not too confidently! double bottom on the RSI is scary stuff.
    but you’re only as good as your next trade!!

    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/the_pain_in_spain_19/#comment-3534941078

  • Yoda

    not only the tape smashing records
    https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ce0_1509661568
    Systema trained?

  • Paleface

    The one who made this pretty picture never lived in the so called “socialism”, I assure you. I did.