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That’s Far Enough Now
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That’s Far Enough Now

by The MoleSeptember 28, 2009

Sorry about the Zero outage rats – my rhythm is all mixed up so I somehow didn’t hear my alarm clock early this morning. And of course all hell broke loose while I was sawing wood in my sleeping coffin – well, the Zero is up and running again now.

Quick look at the tape: Frankly, this is probably as far as we want to see this counter wave go. Note the almost perfectly overlapping fib retracements – the one marked in orange is the23.6 multiple of wave {iii}, the one in yellow is the 50% multiple of the prior wave. There is also a nicely developing divergence on the Zero, so I’m adding a few more puts here but keeping some powder dry for the possibility of a push towards 1100 – as you all know this is still Anna’s favored scenario.

11:52am EDT: Here’s a chart we should reflect on as we push higher yet again today:

This is the very first time since 1995 that we painted more than 7 consecutive monthly highs in the NDX. Remember right at the beginning of September – which is traditionally a down month – we all expected this to be a down month? Now I just hopped over to the Slope (I like to go slummin’ sometimes) and T.K. is happy to kick September to the curb. So, are we expecting October to be an up month as well? Sure, why not – and according to the now ubiquitous  ‘almighty Fed controls the market theory’ November and December will then be up months as well, right? How about 2010 – that’s right – 12 more more months to the upside – perhaps the entire decade will be a long bullish love fest. Dow 20,000 – here we come!

Alright – sarcasm filter off: I’m staying short and will keep adding positions on every push up. Yes, I’m surprised we had seven successive months to the upside (btw – not on the DJI or SPX). You can call me chronically bearish but I am betting against an 8th or a 9th month. The short reprieve in mortgage resets which started in March (curious timing – mmmhhh) is about to end – let’s see how they like their green shoots when the housing market comes crashing down again.

1:18pm EDT: Good chance we push higher EOD – short term momos consolidated without giving up much of today’s push to the upside. Soylent Blue is gaining probability – especially in light of the current NYSE A/D ratio, which is at around 4.1 right now. If we get a Geronimo alert towards the close you know what to do (i.e. hedge yourself if you’re delta negative).


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ultrabear

    First day with the zero and wishing I had opened long ES as I considered doing!

    Gotta say I think Anna may well be right on this one. Looks a lot more like 1-2-3 than a-b-c to me. Not forgetting Gannsecret's evil pentagram SPX 1149 call too 😉

    Moment of truth coming up…….

  • Joe8888

    Spy 10 min Channel…?

  • CorporalCarrot

    Folks

    I don't have my normal tools to hand here. Whats volume like today?

  • ultrabear

    Low and waning.

  • blues

    Ya, but putting bias aside, today sure look like a trend day up… where we will end the day at near HOD…

  • CorporalCarrot

    Just so you all know, I'm fighting with myself over considering going long here for a scalp…………………which means you should all load up short 😀

  • molecool

    Sorry about this morning – it's usually very stable – need to get back into the swing of things over here.

  • blues

    Wow, DXY just did a crazy reversal in last 2 minutes… equity today seems not correlated with DXY so much… as DXY still above last Friday close and yet equity is waaay up…

  • insite

    WTF just happened w/ currencies? dollar took a MASSIVE jump

  • blues

    Ya I was just posting on that, but equity is not doing crap though…

  • ultrabear

    np. even with friday's data, I had enough info to make the long – 5 up, 3 down, a 61.8% retrace and the zero crossing north? I don't think it gets any clearer than that…

  • blues

    equity seems to be on a mission to get somewhere maybe 61.8% retrace at minimum?

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    Trichet: “Extremely important to have strong dollar”

  • ablebonus

    Trichet saying strong dollar “extremely important”

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    to hell with the rules – doubled down short nq at 1729

  • insite

    true. looks like the yen took a dump & that trickled through the EUR to DXY. didn't impact equities at ALL…..

  • ultrabear

    would be a sweet divergence for dollar to rally just as we witnessed 5 up in SPX

  • ACJ

    GBD

  • CorporalCarrot

    My god, back online, volume seriously light.

  • Road_Kill

    Dang, still waiting for a red candle on anything more than te 5min on the /ES.

  • CorporalCarrot

    I would so love if the bid just disappeared out from under this market today. …………but I don't think its going to happen.

  • springheel_jack

    If we are going to have a bullish week, one of the best short opportunities likely to come our way IMO will be a new chance to short GBPUSD.

    There is a beautiful H&S on GBPUSD with the neckline at 1.61 and the top of the head at 1.71. It indicates therefore to 1.51 and this decline has the strong backing of the Bank of England, where the head has made it explicitly clear that he welcomes a weaker GBP & implied that if he doesn't get one in the normal course of events, he will act to ensure that he does.

    GBPUSD wen't through the neckline last week at 1.61, bottomed slightly under 1.58 last night, and if equities have a strong week, then is likely to rise from 1.5908 currently to re-test the neckline at 1.61.

    When it does that, it will be a very attractive short IMO & i will definitely be shorting it.

  • Bart7

    we're outa the blue and into the orange according to mole's chart, or am I reading that wrong?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Another successful Geronimo trade hitting target…

    Skal!

  • gmak

    Still trying to talk up the dollar. Hasn't worked so far. Guess we need a few more CB'ers to say the same thing.
    What can they do? Sell their own currency – but then BEN does the same. Need his co-operation (and Timmay's).

  • AS2009

    Alpha – can you share what you are seeing … an updated chart would be great :)

  • gmak

    STill over a point away on ES. If we hit it, this means SPX is over a very important pivot at 1062.9ish.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    party is over? noon reversal in store?

  • ultrabear

    nothing certain yet. hold your horses. maybe a couple more points upside from here then the nature of the pullback will tell you which we are on.

  • harveydent

    i really hope so. but lets not jinx it.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    only sinners like me trading today

  • dollar

    I've been adding today too David

  • Me_XMan

    Today looking like 7/13. WTF!!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it IS painful, but from r/r point of view – we will know soon enough if it is abc or 5 will be extended

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    yeah, I see that it was 1059.5 not 1059… Perhaps I need some more coffee…

    Skal!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    added OCt 104s to my 103s

  • Me_XMan

    7/13 had 26 points. Careful bears.

  • ultrabear

    yep – looking closely at this too. bulk of savings sitting in GBP so looking to get the hell out of dodge!

    in other news – this has clearly topped already and did so in advance of SPX at the top 2 years ago too. another sign that we are there or very close.

  • Anonymous

    My wife works for the biggest RE auction company. She has been a little slower over the summer, recently said it’s definitely cranking up again.

  • Me_XMan

    Barrons saying Dow 10K is given. So we're not top yet.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    /dx just shit itself

  • fuw

    Mole, I'm hoping that you are considering to use this video in one of your posts (shared by our member “omelette” in the last thread). I mean, how could you go wrong with a faux German connection, alcohol and subtle references to carnal activities?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbYtqAWDF2U

  • blues

    yup you that that right… gee… look like DXY is on death spiral again…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Mouse playing while cat is away

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes…covered some short in cable today …looking to resell on some strength…
    yes 1.51 min target….
    look at weekly..if we are in wave 5 down..possible to eventually test 1.35 again!

  • molecool

    Reload page.

  • molecool

    OMG – that is so cheesy….

  • thelefteyeguy

    someone slap me silly…

  • blues

    I think DXY is goint to at least 76.5 in a hurry, look like the breakout above 77.1 is fake and failed so fail move come with fast move in the opposite direction into the low of the previous range which is around 76.5… and if it going for the kill, is going back down to 76…

  • Me_XMan

    You mean BEARS.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hope this freaking thing complete's in final wave, then tanks like a rock!

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    big volume spike on that /dx drop at 76.87, with three little price gaps about 4c above. waiting.

  • molecool

    DXY dropping like a rock again. You can usually guess if it's going to be a down/up day by looking at the overnight action in the DXY. I knew right away that we'll push higher in equities last night as the DXY was already pushing down. Of course this has gone a bit higher than I had hoped.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    right now we are pushing nicely into fib price and time proportions… Do I smell a turn?

    Skal!

  • gmak

    EUR running into overhead resistance at pivot at 1.4678; Bollinger sell play setting up.
    SPX is overextended and above clear pivot. Volumes not supporting the stay up here. looking for return to 1061ish at least. (But I've been fooled before – tight stops on short).

  • BaldEagle

    What does Barrons know? They're the print version of CNBC

  • fuw

    really? I found it highbrow 😉

    The lip gloss gives a nice final touch.

  • Bart7

    If it was the cover story, I'd say major contrary indicator…

  • thelefteyeguy

    this is looking like a iii…

  • Anonymous

    Anna, was your banker trying to get a loan from you?

  • springheel_jack

    Many H&S patterns overshoot. Cable is a junk currency. Worst in the western world IMO.

  • peder1001

    you honduran?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Plalezzz!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    +1 !

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, we are very close to an equities top here. 2 weeks max I think.

    About time too! :-)

  • fa_q

    Gotta love bear markets…. Hope you bearish boys and girls didn't overstay your welcome. There will be a time to short and hold and it's quickly approaching, IMO. Not jumping in too soon this time and not getting fooled by a small retrace tomorrow. Looking to get short Wed/Thur/Fri depending upon price. I am LOVING this wave count. If you're a LT/IT bull you're not going to want to look at the volume. Watch for an overthrow on your Fib's and then it should be Katy Bar the Door time. Have a good week – talk to you all in a few.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    born In Tegucigalpa..but not native Hondureño

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Shorted MSFT, it's moved a dime against me and hasn't moved since….starting to get a little worried.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    noticed this last night but was too tired to comment. On your ending diagonal count, you have the (a) wave peak occurring before the wave IV bottom. Are you running two counts on that, calling it a running ending diagonal, or what?

    Any enlightenment would help.

    Skal!

  • BaldEagle

    They would cheer if DXY went to 50 as long as the market went up. Best use for Barron's is to crumple it up and start a fire with it.

  • gmak

    Right now, I see 1087 contracts stacked up at 1059. I'm willing to bet there are similar amounts every 0.25 moving up. Unless these are vapour-contracts, we're going to be sitting here for a while, because no one seems to be selling (They would be jumping the stack and hitting the bid at 1058.75, which is happening but in a tepid way.).

  • Road_Kill

    Market seems to have stopped trading. Guess we are goin to sit here the rest of the day.

  • Me_XMan

    Watch for SPX 25 points today.

  • peder1001

    aha just wondered cos i recognized the catracho phrase. wife is from san pedro.

  • malusDiaz

    House of Lego's Come Crashing down: http://gizmodo.com/5368649/lego-house-demolishe

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Wow awesome been there, scary landing in the airport though! LOL

  • Me_XMan

    It's taking a breather and jamming some more.
    SPX going 1100?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    If you recall I kicked the Sell September scenario to the curb a few minutes after midnight on September 1st, when MarketWatch ganged up like a dozen “September is historically the worst month” features and ran them all at 12:01 AM that day. Like the January Effect, when the masses get “informed” of it to that extent, it's too easy to make a buck fading them. 😉

    Now the S&P closed down about 2% on September 1st. I recall someone in the comments after wrap-up saying something like, “well we had our down day for September and now can go up to new highs.” Tonight when I have time I'll try to dig that one up. It deserves a Like for sure if I didn't give it one back then.

  • Road_Kill

    Yeah probably today.

  • gmak

    Yep. Stacks of 1000 ES contracts each way, every 0.25 points. More on the downside – but the larger pile is usually virtual and only there to keep price up. If it slides, they seem to vanish.

    over 1800 at 1060.

    Only single contracts seem to be trading. Not a lot of block action. Whoever said we were locked here might be right until some correlated catalyst (DXY, anyone?) occurs to make the fake bids and asks flee.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    thanks for catching that, yeah for the ending diagonal the wave iv should end where I have the (c) w

  • Carl V

    Not sure, when everything seems to stop, it might be taking a breath for more. My take: look at the 60min SPY: if a reversal has to occur, it is in the next hour, during a quite lunch perhaps… But the pattern perfectly looks like a M/A so far…and yes I know there has been so much failed patterns since June…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Fair enough. That would be a nice diagonal then, though still running (which I am not sure EWI suggests exists). Either way, nicely done, that just threw me off last night.

    Skal!

  • Road_Kill

    Sorry Carl can you clarify M/A?

  • Carl V

    Sorry: first you have a “M” shape which is the double top so to speak, then a first break through the “neckline”, then prices come back forming the left part of the “A” shaped pattern. We are there now. And…if we are lucky enough we got the second part of the “A” all the way down 😉
    http://screencast.com/t/63eBQ1IWtlb

  • finalbull

    hi mole
    what would you short right now for march 2010

  • AntG624

    The daily swing chart posted at this blog suggests your theory-

    http://unbiasedtrading.blogspot.com/

  • rhae

    I usually don't pay attention and put up the last post, so I will just repost… SPY looks toppy, if Uncle Bucky can wake up
    Slightly stale SPY 1m vrs. dollar index
    http://screencast.com/t/3HjZXTyK

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    they call is icebergs

  • Road_Kill

    Thank you very much for that, greatly appreciated and tremendous help.

  • AS2009

    Essentially – if we break 1065, then we are looking at your wave 5 up theory with the tgt of 1100 …right ?

  • pramood

    Regardless of P2 or P3, we should retrace from 1065 level. what is the retracement target if we are in P2 or P3 ? I am expecting prior resistance at 1052-1053 as a support and a good retracement area as well. Appreciate your thoughts.

  • fusiyichipegasus

    you can be wrong picking a top many times…but when there is a confirmed top, you can only be wrong once

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    What kind of returns are you looking for. If you are only looking to perform inversely as well as the market, put on SPY, DIA, or QQQQs. If you are looking to inversely out-perform the market, I suggest you look at some higher beta stocks that have rallied more than 100% since the bottom.

    My typical candidates are BIDU, ICE, MA, FSLR. Some other good names are DTG, CE, POT, CTB, FWLT, MTN… That should give you some fodder to consider for a little while.

    (and no, I am not mole, but I CERTAINLY am his evil East Coast twin)
    Skal!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Here P3, here boy, come on be a good boy, here P3, here boy here boy

  • dollar

    Added to SDS, dollar fugly but market is stalling

  • Me_XMan

    All hell breaks loose when SPX climbs over 1064.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I don't think 1100 today. 😛

    But if we do get well into the 1060s today or tomorrow, it will make it very interesting for Mole's Blue Bounce vs. Soylent Orange scenarios (Primary {3} vs. Primary {2}).

    That would still be a heck of a percentage move in this low-volatitly market right now. 4 times the +/- 0.5% typical daily move of late.

  • AS2009

    Karl is there a way to find the tgt for the A to conclude ?

  • malusDiaz

    It's good to see your posts again =)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    God this is boring!!!!!!! I went to lunch and we are right where we were when I left. somethings going to give soon. :)

  • finalbull

    thanks for info
    I like bidu and ma

  • fusiyichipegasus

    haha greedy!! markets moved 2% in 3 hrs…what more do you want!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Those are 2 of my favorites too!

  • BaldEagle

    Goldman liftoff!

  • ultrabear

    Loving your BIDU chart. Kindly request to Anna for a bearish option spread….. pretty purleaaaaaaaaaaase?

  • malusDiaz
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Its been right around here for over 2 hours now. I like movement.

  • flyboy08

    Anyone post off of their Blackberry? I'm having problems as I see the “add new comment” wording, but no comment box? Also..seems the auto refresh does not work on the BB..

    Anyone? trying to set it up since I will be using it on an up and coming trip.

    TIA,

  • Carl V

    Hi AS2009, a good way to set an objective is substracting the distance in beween “M” from the low in the middle of the M, like you do for a head and shoulder. That gives us <= 103.35 approximately; for the A, not too sure but I would do the same: 104.09-(106.47 (so far the high of the A)-104.09 ; this gives us an objective of 101.71 and below… we shall see quickly I guess..

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Sure wil… do you want to put one on today? I thought we would go for it when Bidu got to around 420 440 on Berk's chart.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I didn't think you could off of BB? maybe you can now, i haven't tried in a while Fly :)

  • blues

    Certainly weird market… DXY has been going up straight from 12:06AM and yet equity just flat to up… wow…

  • fusiyichipegasus

    not sure of the time frame but i have down to 1056, and then up to 1082

  • PeterK80

    Getting close to the top resistence of the wedge since May. Will probably take some longs off the table and add short if we get there.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    CNBC just reported P3 ended last week at 1041 and the new bull market has begun

  • ultrabear

    no just when the time comes thanks!

  • losershot

    flyboy08, I suggest you try a different browser. Opera Mini gets pretty good reviews and I myself like it. It costs nothing.

  • insite

    seriously?

  • Osso

    42.69 Qs resistance….

  • AS2009

    Cool – thanks … heard a lot abut the pattern … never knew how to come up with tgts …

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks, good to be back.

    Skal!

  • flyboy08

    Hmm, opera mini? Never heard of this, but I'll look into. Thanks.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    someone said it feels like 7/13″

    It certainly does NOT feel like 7/13 – on 7/13 w2 was completed.
    Now it does feel like 4 on daily – classic volatility, profits evaporate fast in any direction
    http://screencast.com/t/Vd6S66uV

  • ultrabear

    lol *splutter* mrnnnnnnnnnnnh??

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    18min – fits fractals better
    18,36,72,145

  • jr9876

    anyone know if you can recieve Geronimo alerts using 2 different emails ? Need to send an email to my work acct, and use a seperate email address for SMS alerts

  • Tronacate

    FSLR has not participated in this bounce in any fashion

  • thelefteyeguy

    wuahaha

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    You got it! Earnings come out on 10/18 and also this may be the turn date for the markets as well. So that would be a fun trade if it works out ….I will post above when i find some juicy ones :)

  • losershot

    jr9876, you should be able to use a forwarding rule from your work account for those e-mails coming from a specific address.

  • Styrfart

    What is this! Anna, where's the 1053! LoL Looks like a painful tomorrow for my etf bears! :-(

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Dollar is catching a bid here, but no spy cooperating so far. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    And why should it? We are short market is up almost 2%. This is what we want. We call it Alpha!

    Skal!

  • dollar

    I'm confused I see the dollar down since last night: http://screencast.com/t/wcW7iCcCeA7L

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I mentioned that last could go either way today, but hang in there we will retrace some of this by end of day. Styr. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Time proportions suggest a potential top in the next 3-8 3200tck bars. Prices, as we all know, are right where we want them.

    Skal!

  • vision_invisible

    let’s see how they like their green shoots when the housing market comes crashing down again.

    >> Agreed. We've all seen that the resets coming next year is going to crush. Thats why the time for final manipulations in earnest have to come in the next 1-2 months – I believe the real estate tax credits are going to be renewed, some more stimulus sauce (despite the fact that we're gagging on it now), and who knows what the Fed else. I'm not sure if goosed markets help or hurt healthcare push.

  • Carl V

    I think EUR fx is leading the way and I see an interesting expanding formation (on 5' chart); if has to go out of the formation soon or late. Up or down. Usually going out of an expanding formation is brutal. LOOK NOW.
    http://screencast.com/t/9OajqgJ6

  • blues

    Yes we are looking at the same, oops I see I made a mistake, I meant 12:06PM, not AM… sorry…

  • Tronacate

    EXACTLY…..thnks BERKmeister

  • Road_Kill

    DXY moonshoot. Equities dont seem to give a flying F@#$

  • blues

    Wow, big green stick on DXY 1 minutes chart just now… let's see if we can get it back to 77.1…

  • Carl V

    I mean: now ==> http://screencast.com/t/TWxgjUbU3r3
    (and the MACD will not help up…)

  • gmak

    Incredible megaphone of bigger and bigger heads is happening in EUR. EUR just fell out of bed and is cliff diving like there is no tomorrow. Guess Trichet finally got his boys and girls on the phone and asked them what was taking so long.

  • dollar

    Ok here we go

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Just saying Road. :(

  • Carl V

    Thanks gmak :-)

  • Joe8888

    Update SPY 15Min Chart,Channel 20 ma hit…?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

  • springheel_jack

    USD is way too strong to match this bullish action today.

    I suspect a significant pullback is imminent.

  • Styrfart

    LoL, It doesn't matter today a banked a big pile of coins! :-) Your intra-day index calls is great!

  • Styrfart

    LoL, It doesn't matter today a banked a big pile of coins! :-) Your intra-day index calls is great!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Anything but boring for me Anna! First before the open Goldman analyst Benjamin Rowbotham downgraded my JNY even as he was raising earnings estmates for the next year and a half. Then my USO was dragging most of the morning. So at one point my account was in the red from Friday while SPX was up 1-1/2%, not good.

    Meanwhile we got 2 people out at day job so I'm doing 3 persons' work and not able to have even 1 monitor of my 2-monitor intraday screen setup loaded. So I basically missed out on that big move up in Russell, SPX and such. :(

    But after a morning of feeling like the dope of the day, JNY has recovered and the USD drop got USO more or less caught up. A nice beer over lunch helped too. 😛

  • Road_Kill

    Its ok anna, we will have our day. You just might unfortinately have to loan me money by then.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    DisQshit is driving me crazy

  • Carl V

    But let's beware: as long as EUR has not broken the lower part of the megaphone, it can still go to the other side…ggghhhheeeee…it has just rebounded a bit…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahahahah sure send you a blank check !

  • gmak

    Thanks Carl! <thumbsup> A picture is worth a thousand or more of my words. EUR is trying to claw back up the cliff over that support – now resistance trend line.

  • rhae

    thx berk, I have a SPX/SPY 500 tick chart templete, seems about optimum for that,… My problem is I don’t stay tuned in to Evil full time and miss some important post

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Mac….My day was Friday so I can't complain…did a sweet trade on RIMM bear put spread that got me 200% in one day. Now I am drooling over BIDU coming up

    I told you you would enjoy the seminar Mac, options are just awesome vehicle to levage with . :)

  • LegendC

    Dollar back to where it was the start of the day, think SPY follows?

  • gmak

    Guess whoever is on vacation now was responsible for the correlation between DXY and SPX /ES. Either that, or they just don't have the muscle to play with the way the bids/asks are stacked up.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    $SPX 15min – welcome to C down http://screencast.com/t/Py1eC2pIqM2

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Looks like we just put in a flat for a 4th wave… Modest new highs should be coming up…

    Skal!

  • rhae

    SPY 60m, *IF* we get a confirmed swing high. the wave C corrective (EW)… I think around 102 reasonable, which targets that open true gap… toppy always open to if's until the momo gets going… http://screencast.com/t/0fJwYNQ2MZ

  • gmak

    It's a plot by GS to discombobulate day traders….. :-)

  • Bart7

    modest new highs for today, or exceeding the 1080 high from last week?

  • Road_Kill

    I have been discombobulated for sure.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I love that word! :)

  • flyboy08

    Loaded OP to the BB, but it wont allow me to sign in? never easy..never:-(

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    $ES_F target 1018

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    what time frame David?

  • Road_Kill

    I am sure we can arrange a discombobulation for you as well.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Nothing like a cold beer to de-discombobulate…..

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    for today. I REALLY struggle to see a move above 1080.

    Skal!

  • Road_Kill

    Dude when you think that will happen. That is a sexy number if I must say so myself.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    So Joe you're bullish? that looks like a wave 5 channel

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    The top in EUR is in. Trichet came in and called for a strong dollar. Not that that is enough. But it gives the proper excuse that should reverse a stretched market.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    about freaking time, now if all those short the $dxy will rush to cover this tape will dive.

  • dollar

    UUP perking up now

  • gmak

    If SPX and EUR /DXY are to get back into synch – either EUR is going to have a magnificent ramp, or ES /SPX are going to slide off of the cliff. EUR is barely hanging on by the fingernails over the abyss at 1.4603 (no support seemingly below) – lots of overhead resistance.

    Could the carry trade be over?

  • Road_Kill

    “But it gives the proper excuse that should reverse a stretched market.”

    Someone needs to notify Mr Market of this.

  • blues

    Well for me, I really don't see any significant damage to the intraday tape yet… today is a a classic gap and go… should be a trend day… but on the flip side, we are so close to the lower high that was made on 1066, so if we pop that we may go straight to 1070s… USD is going up very strong now, yet equity seems don't get a sh**… so very confusing… If we do pop above 1066, the lower low lower high will be invalidated (ON ES at least)… and IF DXY start dropping now (because it pretty much went straight up from 76.64 no pull back whatsoever…) equity could keep on going up…

  • rhae

    5m default ?, I skip from timeframe to timeframe all day long, never sure what one is looking at without a timeframe, I know bitch, bitch… lol

  • blues

    I certainly hope so… but today is just too strong… I don't see ANY weakness on SPY unless we go blow LOD which I really doubt it though…

  • Road_Kill

    I think the EUR/USD vs SPX trade was getting too easy. Someone obviously flipped some switches over the weekend.

  • Tronacate

    COCOA just busting lower out of low adx wedge on 60min……..hope it's not a fakeout

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    my Bank regional manager was just here, and he confirmed they are getting ready to pull a ton of credit off the market, now we know what that will do to the tape.

  • blues

    ya, in favor of the bull it seems…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I mentioned before that I was looking at a 3200tch chart. But I completely understand. You are only getting part of this picture.

    Skal!

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    In case I was not clear, I am talking about the EUR (being stretched) not spooz. God knows I dont know ANYTHING about trading spooz anymore.

  • blues

    Are you serious? But they never pump out the credit (never lend) ever since the financial crash…

  • gmak

    According to my volume chart, SPX ;is sitting right where the market likes it. quite a fractured day volume-wise.

    If we slip, I see support (volume-wise) at 1059.50 and again at 1056.50. Meanwhile, the slo-mo battle of the pivot at 1062.9ish continues for SPX. We are sitting between the 9 pMA and 34 pMA on the 5 min SPX, about to get squeezed. 9 pMA is sloping down and 34 pMA is sloping up. with that pivot there, the odds should be in favour of heading down – but it's not a normal day (even for these abnormal markets).

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    blues more likely tomorrow than today, but we must keep a positive negative atttiude! LOL

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    That's what I am saying, they are going to PULL out credit from a whole ton of people…

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    You mean they will stop extending credit to bears. :) You know all of us are in a black list somewhere.

  • dollar

    Dollar at the 8 hr ma on the 1 minute, it has fallen away from that twice today, maybe third time will be a charm…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    LOL I heard that about 1/3 to 1/2 of all credit card holders will 1.will have their credit line smashed 2. not be able to get any credit at all.

  • gmak

    EUR trying to get back above Carl's trend line just now. I still see resistance there – but it might get worn away.

  • Trader_Steve

    I have told my wife they might make it illegal to profit from short sales. And I thought I didn;t trust government when I was 30!

    Steve

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    The USD index has only just bounced off a supporting trendline (See 15 minute chart), perhaps there are thoughts that it could break down from that…

  • insite

    ok, if you were the fed & you were going to ENGINEER a method to allow equities to be driven higher while simultaneously building strength in the US dollar, how would you do it?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahahaha, no….He is a close friend and I help him with a stock or two and he fills me on what's going on :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    And actually where I noticed the flat was a 512tck.

    Skal!

  • gmak

    Get foreigners to buy USD and put the money into equities. by foreigners, read FCBs

  • blues

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/banker-bashing

    “Instead, the government will require that any bonuses be spread out over several years to allow time for clawbacks in the event management turns out to have made bad decisions.”

    How about 90% tax on all bonuses given out? I mean we, the tax payer, were the once who saved your A$$, why not give us the money back?!

  • Anonymous

    officially 10/20, but says decline will likely start 10/10

  • malusDiaz

    I'd print 2 dollars for ever 1 I'm authorized for, like the Italians in WWII.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Does that say 11 minutes?

  • dollar
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup, and when I tell people things like that, they just laugh me off cause I am some 25 year-old nobody.

    Skal!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    we italians are some smart business people hahahahah

  • Carl V

    Yeahn it is not over yet, but it would be if EUR breaks down the last low of some minutes ago – it is really now that big things are happening!

  • blues

    aw man, I hope DXY isn't doing a H&S on 1 minutes chart…

  • AS2009

    Question … how do you put stops / trailing stops in Interactive brokers tool ? This is for an elderly friend who has just put the money in the mkt with no stops !!!!

  • molecool

    The delicious irony – they are cutting credit on the same tax payers who bailed them out. Cracks me up.

  • insite

    possible H&S forming on DXY 1min

  • blues

    And they are giving out Tons of bonus with our money! :)

  • dollar

    Dollar has to break out of that down channel from last night to get taken seriously: http://screencast.com/t/TeTqh6N3

  • Carl V

    I don't like this reversal pattern in EUR 5' – if EUR breaks the other side of the megaphone, we are good for SPX 1100. Everything happens in t he Now :-)

  • PRSGuitars

    Had no idea you were so young. Nice (I’m 23).

    How do you stomach being laughed at when you say radical things and people scoff at you? I’m in the same boat — got a few bank-employed friends who are plain giddy with their ridiculous bullish arguments and belief that ‘this time is really different’. Makes me sick.

    I think a huge problem in this country is the lack of financial education of our younger generations.

  • blues

    Man equity simply won't go down, is on fire!

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Dollar, have a look at the Intradaty USD over the last 10 days….

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    very risky, hey could use (loan) their reserves to short sell gold

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    yep, we are headed for a world of pain soon! But good for us bears! :)

  • gmak

    Say your friend is long. Put on a SELL trade, and use the pull down where it says “LImit” or whatever, and select stop. Then change the value field to be where he/she wants the stop to be.

    Clear as mud?

  • Joe8888

    we were short term over sold, i was hoping for a gap-down,,,, once we crossed over that rising
    trendline i spoke about on Fridays Chart, i sold my Short , bought back some here, and looking to buy the rest soon.

    But IMO, this should be the last rally, for the index,I believe we either hit the Highs last week,This could be a retest, or we will hit the highs
    for the year ,now,before the next Pivot date,October 7th-13th.

  • malusDiaz

    Germany Printed up fake Pounds, England Retaliates with fake Marks,

    Italians did it themselves before someone else could,

    But the Russians are best horse traders.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Kudos to you too… Glad to have some more young blood around here. We keep them old folks on their toes.

    How do I deal with them… Show them my account… 😛 Seriously though, Barry’s argument is that this time is no different. Why, because just like every other cyclical bear market, everyone thinks this time is different. But really, I just smile and turn away if the are unwilling to accept my logic. I will always listen to theirs, even if I don’t buy it, but they are rarely kind enough to return the favor.

    The best way for me to deal with them is laugh my ass to the bank… Repeatedly!

    Skal!

  • AS2009

    Wonderfully clear :) is there also a trailing stop option in IB ?

  • Road_Kill

    Yes there is.

  • flyboy08

    Thanks for clearing that up Anna….I had a Valium hangover this morning:-)

    Back atcha!

  • dollar

    What am I looking for?

  • Road_Kill

    It should be in that drop down menu weher you set limit or market orders.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah… sounds just about right doesn't it… 😛

    Y'all saved us this time, let us save you now!

    Skal!

  • molecool

    DXY has recovered nicely from today's drop into 76.6 – maybe there is a chance this was yet another 2nd wave.

  • gmak

    Yes.

    Is your friend in the Webtrader or their sexy Java interface?

    Make sure that they put the “stop” in the appropriate box before transmitting the trade or else it will get executed as valid trade and they will be out of their position.

  • insite

    now THAT'S interesting…….

  • blues

    And it seems equity don't give a crap about DXY today…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Those must be aweful! :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Agreed that this is a distinct possibility.

    That being said, I sold the USO long that I carried over the weekend at $34.60 around 12:45PM based on that bounce – especially with UUP having regained $22.80 again.

    The supply report on Wednesday is not likely to improve so much from last week's disaster that it can withstand dollar strength. Again perhaps a mistake but we'll see. 😉

  • AudioTactics

    I'm looking for a good blog/trading site for US Treasury market/fixed income… any ideas?

    I follow Across The Curve sometimes but I find it's a little vague.

  • lilme

    I read that Citibank was doing this – are there more banks doing this? You may prefer not to answer.

  • Anonymous

    the problem is “which” mean (and better yet, where’s the mean) are you talking about?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Until the credit restrictions start to fuck with our margin accounts…

    Skal!

  • isaiah64v4

    Today is a POMO day so I am going to wait untill Tue afternoon or Wednesday to enter shorts. If anyone in the group wants to spent 8 min watching something amazing check this video out.
    From the TV show “Ukraine’s got Talent”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=518XP8prwZo&feat

    Be sure the sound is on. The words at the end are said to mean “you are always near to us”

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Don’t know… New era, new thinking… Same dumbasses… If you look at long term trendlines (drawn from monthly or weekly charts) we have a shit ton to fall just to “revert to the mean” and we should likely drop below the “mean” in order to correct properly. I mean we have spent decades above any LT trendline or MA, we could use at LEAST a few months below to help even things out.

    Skal!

  • PRSGuitars

    /ES at possible downward reversal — just a heads up as usual:

    http://screencast.com/t/nKcnoaGrRh7S

    /NQ playing nice in the channel — bummer I didn't take profits on my 1748.50 position, but hey, here's another possible shorting opportunity. And that position is IT whether I like it or not.

  • insite

    good lord; that makes my head hurt……..

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    oh yea Berk, good point! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    My guys bank is a major regional bank. :)

  • dollar

    Ok nice breakout on the dollar…next challenge 77.2x peak from just after midnight

    Americans' savings rate has been steadily climbing and could surpass 8% for the first time since 1992 – which will hurt spending and weigh down any recovery, says Pimco's Richard Clarida. “I’m in the glass is half empty camp.”

  • http://wadecapitalmanagement.typepad.com/blog/ Duuuuuude

    DavidDT, I just looked at the FIB time series on the SPX. Does this line up with yours? Looks signifigant.

    http://screencast.com/t/D99RmAzC

  • amokta

    dow up 145 – so much for ewi 'p3 down started on 23 sept' declaration!
    mind you if life was that simple…
    mind you dow still below sept 23

  • BigIslandLife

    A lot of strings on that guitar pic of a chart lmao

  • gmak

    EUR is on its way to 1.4636 which is a qualified TD price exhaustion level. Looks like SPX /ES is trying to go along for the ride (guess it only works upward – the correlation that is) :-)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yike my eyes, my eyes! LOL

  • Road_Kill

    Yeah I noticed that upward only correlation too.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thanks for the heads up Gmak although I don't like the news I like the messenger. :)

  • isaiah64v4

    Woooow…. Wonder why I didn't see that?

  • Road_Kill

    Its almost 1:30 in NY. If the traders had a good lunch we are in for some fireworks.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I just unhedged the last of my short spy puts. We'll see what happens from here. :)

  • kevinsch

    i agree. closed my short eur/usd earlier at 1.4605. looking to reenter around 1.4640

  • Trader_Steve

    A friend of mine at a BIG bank told me that the application for reverse mortgages were too high to handle back in the end of July (and continue) but that with them considering housing could drop 20% to be safe in the loan, the criteria was extremely high and many are being rejected. But that the volume of request is high is disturbing.

    I heard ice floats come winter will sell well though. That and a 3 day box lunch and good, hearthy push to sea. What FKN country!

    I'll eat a bullet before I let this government make me a burden on my children.

    Steve

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    No offense mate, but judging by that /ES chart I can't see a place where it would not be at a reversal level (in either direction).

    To each their own.

    Skal!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I wasn't taking chances. Like I said I sold off USO at 12:45PM, and then JNY at $17.70 right on the dot at 1PM. You'll see now, with that downgrade on the headlines JNY will move more down on the down TICKs than it moves up on the upticks.

    Too bad about JNY, up almost 90% since mid-July until Goldman took it down a notch today. :(

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    It just makes me nuts to see how the typical investor gets rigged into this CNBC thinking of things are great, recession is over, V shaped recovery, THERE IS NO WAY They are duping the last retail numskull into buying stocks before they dump the truck over.
    that's amazing about the reverse mortgages isn't that for Seniors?

  • Joe8888

    Bearish 10 min pattern here…. should come inn,,but the volume is lite…

  • Osso

    seems Qs are best to short, rather than SPY….

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    Buy and Hold is the biggest scam ever sold.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Oh, Moley…

    Like that $COMPQ chart. But you missed one 7 month rally just after the 2002 bottom. 😛

    You know me, I am a stickler.

    Skal!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yea it is Return, thats an old trick for the institutions to sell at the top!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Ok I couldn't resist, I put on an APPL Bearish put spread (swing trade) 180/175 for 1.25 possible return of 3.75 that could be a short term 200% trade if it works. :)

  • springheel_jack

    Why are we still rising Anna? We should have seen a pullback of some kind by now.

    USD action still not confirming this rise. 😕

  • funkypenguin

    Amen – this is what Wall St is great at – bringing in the sucker retail investors.

    Reverse mortgages are typically for Seniors – a way to give the debt to your heirs. My guess is that many are really hurting right now as their savings have been decimated and they are looking at reverse mortgages. These are very expensive (my mother looked at one before we came up with a more sane way to restructure her finances) and a complete rip off generally.

  • Anonymous

    I dig your words hamster, just hope they come true.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I will have to get back on the knees undert the desk I guess Jack! LOL
    there is basically no volume and they are just melting up the tape. I guess we must wait for tomorrow to see real price action.

  • springheel_jack

    I'm wondering now whether this is a trend up day, albeit on very slim volume.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    It ticks me off, and yes, the poor seniors have no way to try and make back some of their losses as they are retired and their home was a huge part of they're worth.
    I would like to take out all those bastards at AIG and see them suffer.

  • Road_Kill

    How quaint new highs on ES.

  • Bart7

    there will be blood…. before this is all over…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    this is sort of nutz Jack with the $DXY rallying so I think we are very close to the top here.
    that panic buying is here, which is a sign of an imminent top is close by. :)

  • Me_XMan

    Very similar to 7/13 day where SPX rocked 26 points.

  • Squidman

    The plan since early a.m. has been another major short squeeze and I hate to say it but I expect another push shortly. I won't be shorting again today.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yes, I agree Bart. and I hope it's the crooks and thugs that got us here. :)

  • BaldEagle

    We get it, you're a bull. Thanks.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    I wish I could just take a glimpse of the future, just to get one simple answer… are we riding expanded triangles since november 2008?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Remember gang a real topping sign is the panic buying on low volume! :)

  • Joe8888

    Spy Channel and .618% retrace hit, i bought the rest of my shorts Here..

  • blues

    Well, comparatively, haven't we been buying up on low volume since 666… :)

  • Road_Kill

    I am not sure if the holiday thing will throw that off though. But this move does wreak of desperation like there is somewhere they needto get to and fast.

  • DeadPrez

    You don't think we will see 1090?

  • blues

    you still have 1 more level of 74.6!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Next 3200tck candle hits the first time projection, however, excluding afterhours (i.e. all indexes) I cannot count this move up as anything other than a motive 5 wave move. I think we should be looking up for a little bit here.

    Skal!

  • john_matrix

    A close above 1063 will do damage to the daily

  • fusiyichipegasus

    i think she does, but she gets more fan mail when she has a beartastic attitude.

  • blues

    if we go 1090, then probably 1100s for the 50% retrace… but 1100 comes for real, then why not the 1200s for the target of that big inverted H&S on the daily chart of SPX?

  • AudioTactics

    Does anybody know why the bond market is rallying today?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    If anyone has a way to count today's action as a corrective move (without after hours) I would be most appreciative to see it.

    Skal!

  • Bart7

    I figured someone would mention the 1200 number today…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Not today, no

  • Offtimer

    This rally may not be over til Wednesday and on Thursday the government will tax the super bonuses JPM and GS employees are to recieve for the great quarter propping the markets up. Thats what I read from the G-20 communiqe.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    this is really low, way more than the normal low. :)

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    so what is this, light volume front-running of yom kippur, is that it?

  • Joe8888

    .618 Retrace is the big level for me,,,,,,for at least a little pullback,,,

  • fusiyichipegasus

    moves in the last 3 trading days have been violent

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Swing Trade. AApl V put spread

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folder

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    wave iii extended

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    why? we are not conducive to bull-tards here. And all of us bears have to respect the numerous targets before we can even start mentally masturbating about 1200…

    1095, 1112, 1120, etc…

    Skal!

  • BaldEagle

    I want these criminals on Wall Street that get away with this shit with the backing of the gov't hung

  • blues

    Ya, just a joke on the side, maybe the lower the volume, the higher we go?!

  • springheel_jack

    USD may have bottomed already by the look of it, in which case 1121 looks out of reach. 1099 perhaps though.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I think our actual real turn date is in mid October and it is possible we will get to 1122, go ahead I will just add more puts there. :)

  • Bart7

    1200 talk is a mandatory requirement for a top around here…

  • Osso

    transports lagging….R2K lagging……

  • fusiyichipegasus

    the turn date of the almighty reinhardt(have you guys heard of him?) is oct 20th or so

  • john_matrix

    I think we go sideways for this week and next

  • Carl V

    Yeah Mole – actually I am patiently waiting to buy UUP for some days now. I have much more agressive short positions in equities but here I want to protect my EUR account (living in Brussels) and thought UUP was the way to go. I expect a surge for USD and…a dive for EUR…overvalued for a long time because Euro countries don't have the possibility to print virtual money for free as in the US 😉

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    That would be great. I have screamed Uncle for about 3 hours now. :)

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    For the next few days….this market could be wasting our time….perhaps a right shoulder…before 1015 then blast off..

  • blues

    The problem is that everything is laggin, so like my question earlier, what's pushing this market up? The financial and Reits? IYR is up 2.85% and XLF is up about 2.39%… that's just great! What got us into trouble in the first place (Financial and Reits) is leading! cool!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Exactly well said my friend :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks… Kinda like Beanie popping on in in the old days, huh. Guess I am just out of the loop, thanks.

    Skal!

  • springheel_jack

    Likewise. Reloading on dip that is hopefully starting now.

    Die SPX die! :-)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Apple must tank now LOL

  • PRSGuitars

    re: my reversal near 1060 possible chart

    None taken — it's more of a VST reversal if any just based off the (many) channels. Happy to have your wisdom berk — I showed up just after your departure and am just learning what i missed.

    Ignore the colored little guys — the black lines are applicable in this case.

  • springheel_jack

    The SPX today is looking like a rounded top so far.

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Give it a big bite….

  • Osso

    you said it better….!!!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Maybe if we're lucky they will annihilate the other. 😛

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks. Ignoring the colored lines helps. I can do that. I remember when I first started posting charts. Everybody thought I had slipped them some mushrooms over the internet based on the “colorfulness” of my charts.

    Skal!

  • blues

    AAPL is a very scare looking chart to me, I don't is not justifiable for it's market size, but it looks like it may want to pop the all time high…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    would love to see this whole rally just evaporate swoosh really fast!!! LOL

  • PRSGuitars

    Today looks very much like last Thursday in reverse. Look for a 2-230 pm EST reversal from 1061-1063, that's my guess…

    just a possibility. Hard to short things above their R2 pivot for the day.

    Last night we bounced off the continuous /es monthly VWAP so perfectly it was scary. Easy bounce play off the vwap then — just didn't know it'd work out this well… meh.

    Adding a tiny bit to long term shorts after another significant move higher (1060+).

  • Anonymous

    Look like the FED FOMC day close on SPY (106.18) is becoming a tough support to crack now… and then we have the double top neckline support also at around 105.66… Ooops we just went under 106.18… but need to hold below… and close below it…

  • john_matrix

    I was reading somewhere that it could close below 1048 today, lets see

  • bergs

    Far enough for the EWI count.

    http://screencast.com/t/7p02wF32BAdL

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    15 min SPX wave counts, this shows both bullish and bearish counts. Just like the bears couldn't see how anyone could call the impulsive move down last week anything but bearish, the bull feel the same way today, but under both counts they could be c waves. c of IV or c of ii.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • PRSGuitars

    Yeah, my overnight post re: 133.3% channel extensions were much cleaner (as they were for instructive purposes).

    reposted:

    Whenever you have a channel breakout, it could be the mother of all fakeouts. A good target for false breaks is the 133.3% channel extension.

    Part 1: http://screencast.com/t/Q3yzJOsVZpM

    Part 2: http://screencast.com/t/7cE6dZuiPK5

    Thoughts? Comments? I've posted this before but want everyone to know about it, as it's gloriously simple and can even be programmed into TOS charts (i.e., set channel lines, add channel line @ 133.3%, voila…) to appear on all channels you draw, if desired.

    Just a work in progress but perfect since lately we saw the ideal setup for shorting this beast (which I did via NQ, from 1748.50 so far… tee hee hee).

  • springheel_jack

    Nice clear topping process would help us all position for it.

  • blues

    Notice on SPY 60 minutes candle chart, we have NOT made a lower low on any of the candle… so I think in order for ANY weakness to kick in, we need to see at least 1 candle start to poke below the low of the prior candle…

  • Osso

    the custodians of the sept EOQ, wont let go, but no new highs……seems the case.

  • TheCrowe

    Did a put spread on QQQQ long Oct $42 / short Sept $42 … $.51 debit. Looking for a tank later in the week (and hopefully bank the exp Sept $42.) Cheers, Richard

  • BaldEagle

    Yes, that would be swell..

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1041 to 1049 was A, to 1041 at .62 retraction was B, 1064 is C with 2.6 of A (and of course a 5 wave C)

  • Road_Kill

    Those overnight futures lows look so far away now. I bet the bears were super excited when they saw those.

  • springheel_jack

    EURUSD looks ready to dip below 1.46.

  • Offtimer

    Its interesting the dollar is not lower or we will not be able to buy it lower.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    The longer this stays here the more likely it is that we've only completed 3 waves up………possible wedge for the rest of the day, pop tomorrow and then down……

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I would really enjoy that ! :)))

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Liking what I see of that so far. I will set up my TOS to accommodate for the 133.3% extension. Though in TOS, I typically prefer a regression channel. Though as I said, I like the implications of your idea from those two charts. I will be following along in the future and let you know once I compile some more data. Good work, and thanks mucho for sharing.

    Skal!

  • Tronacate

    Dollar moving up agin

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    With my big mouth I should be able to get a really nice piece. :)

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    That helps……

  • Road_Kill

    DXY over 77 lets see if i t holds.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I concur Bergs thanks for the chart as always! :)

  • BaldEagle

    Nike style

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    g/L Richard! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Oh yea! :)

  • BaldEagle

    I would enjoy watching it with you

  • Tronacate

    Dollar looks like it's getting ready to pop big……

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Okay, that is what my count looks like too if I exclude AH trading. However, the problem with this scenario is that with C being 2.618% of A, we are well beyond ANY acceptable proportion for this to be a corrective move (1.618% is tops). The bullish implications of that is that we are likely topping out our 3rd wave right now (2.618 is a GREAT {unextended} 3rd wave target). That is what I see which again causes me to be cautiously bullish (can I get that bad taste out of my mouth please) until we get a new high or a REAL reversal.

    Thanks a lot for your input though.

    Skal!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    blues, longer term I have a target of 202, but this is a swing trade, a day or two or a bit more. :)

  • PRSGuitars

    /es small retrace (or brief respite rally, then small retrace):

    http://screencast.com/t/Tbf8XiBJeVM

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Ha…thats what is missing from the Apple Logo. Why haven't Jobs thought about that…lol

  • ultrabear

    appears to be pushing up against the underside of a months-long trendline, so have decided to join in on your bear spread – thanks!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahaha yea my big lips around the apple (it just might work LOL) :)

  • Road_Kill

    Dudette I am trying to concentrate here please!

  • isaiah64v4

    I like these charts. Good job.

  • Tronacate

    A nice big worm………very computer appropo

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    So far so good Ultra…I am looking for 100% if possible short term :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahahahah ! Desperate housewive's style :)

  • malusDiaz

    1061 ~= 61.8% retractment from 1075 -> 1036,

    breaths of a 2nd wave, correct?

    http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2425/3963483840_

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    CRASH BURN MELT DIE….LOL

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    RIMM RSI 30.5–Anyone trying a small position? OTM calls look too expensive, suggests narrow range sideways trading for 3 or so days, bottom is close —66.7 was probably the bottom

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    anyone able to see if volumes are looking good to support a fall ?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    not saying you're not right to be bullish, but wave IV on the bullish count also corrected in excess to 1.68%, (1.72%)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Everything except the C wave proportions… That is what is being fussy with me right now.

    Aside from that, yes, spot on!

    Skal!

  • DeadPrez

    Does anyone have any insight into shorting the natural gas market? According to this post, supply is maxed out.

    http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/09/brazi

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    woo hoo yes sirree! :) i am still long USD/JPY 3 lots

  • springheel_jack

    The last three days of September are generally bullish. We might not see any serious downside action this side of October.

  • malusDiaz

    So if i'm not wrong, I might be right!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, and THAT is my real conundrum. I struggle to accept a 4th wave flat because of that. However, if push came to shove, I think 1.72% is a little closer to acceptable that 2.618%… No?

    Skal!

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    oops, true enough

    If Wave C is much longer than 161.8% of A, then the pattern is more probably the beginning of an Impulse than a Zigzag

    but 3 was very short and it would give an end at 1069 (that I like for reasons already explained)

    So this would only be A to 1069

    THIS COULD BE THE MISSING 5 (and the discussion of higher 3 and orthodox top would be interesting)

  • Carl V

    Here we go, EUR breaks down…could spark the same move for our dear SPX !!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    We will know one way or another sometime in the future. I know we can all appreciate the clarity in that statement.

    Skal!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    could be like I mentioned I believe the turn date somewhere mid 0ctober.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, with the 2.618 move up this morning, I can't really call it anything other than a 3… Which means we should be looking (slightly) above 1080, or expecting a truncation…

    Skal!

  • gmak

    One more pop up for EUR. Guess the ECB has gone home for the day. I have 1.4608 and 1.4622 as overhead resistance (momentum /price exhaustion indicators). The mid-Bollinger is at 1.4615.

  • PRSGuitars

    A truncation would be fitting as we've run out of gas (effectively, POMO funds, etc) and confidence is exploding higher still, what better way to trap the longs than to leave them, too, waiting for a Godot of their own?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Yes, a truncation would be perfect, this can still end at 1069 today, then fail to ignite and w4 begins the drop from a prety number 1069 IS .62 beyond the november to january climb

  • Trader_Steve

    Has anyone posted a chart (I can't yet) showing that if you draw a line connecting the lows Friday on SPY of 104.07 and 104.36 and place a parallel one on the top of Friday's high at 105:36 at 10:13 time, we have been riding it all day?

    The way I see the count to remain bearish here is that the low was B and we are doing an elongated irregular (please!). But I really don't know if that's possible to this extent. Other counts welcomed.

    Steve

    Steve

  • anthem

    Also, its looking like the correlation only appears to happen to the upside. . .

    12-1pm EST, there was a 80 pip correction with no correction on the /ES

    1-1:30 with a 20 pip upside, we saw a 3pt rise in ES
    1:30-2pm with a 30 pip downside, we saw a 4 pt drop in the ES.

    So, while there is usually a strong correlation, was suprised that we saw an 80 pip move with no correlation.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Completely agree… My top target was really 1095, which would piss off enough folks by not getting to the magic round number of 1100. But a true truncation would just be fabulous.

    +1 for the Godot reference too… Fits the bill perfectly.

    Skal!

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Erm…with hot dog buns..lol

  • blues

    Looks like until DXY can solidly penetrate 77.1 and stay above it, this market will just churn and churn…

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    of course this could also be only A of a flat…

    Anyway, If it goes below 1044 we'll know

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yes, we need the Dollar to break out here soon. :)

  • PRSGuitars

    A few weeks back Tim Knight @ slopeofhope posted the part 1 of the film version for people to appreciate and a lot didn't quite get it. I wrote up a rambling interpretation of Godot re: life and trading… english class pays off.

    The end quote from Gatsby, while cliche, is appropriate as well in the sense of waiting, yearning for that which will never be:

    “Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that’s no matter — tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther…

    So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”

    (might as well get my quotes in while we're using literature…)

  • blues

    Ya, but the sux thing is that tape on spx today still look like a trend day up where we end near HOD by market close…

  • funkypenguin

    The old adage Sell Rosh?Hashanah (Sept 18th SPY close 106.72), Buy Yom Kippur (Today – SPY open 104.85) seems to have worked well this year.

  • Trader_Steve

    I'm wondering wwhen the G-20 type anarchist are going top figure out that they should be around the Goldman Sachs office.

    Steve

  • springheel_jack

    I think this turns in the next two weeks. Latest by Oct opex.

    Keirsten just mentioned that Q3 opex is this week.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    The inidices may make new highs, but I can't find a count that doesn't say the BKX has topped. Does anyone have one?

  • Trader_Steve

    We argued that every year on the trading floor. Just as many people thought it was BUY first.

    Steve

  • insite

    looks like H&S (with a really tall head!) on DXY 1min in the process of completion

  • Road_Kill

    Maybe we still close that morning gap up today. I know some wishful thinking here but it worked on fed day.

  • blues

    not really, we didn't touch 76.88 yet… until we touch that and then go back up to 77 and then fail again, then you will have a complete H&S provided that we break below 76.88 hard…

  • Osso

    IBM…close to breaking 120…..

  • http://www.capitalistpreservation.com capitalisa

    Just covered a dt short on it, so it'll probably go to $10 now :)

  • springheel_jack

    Everybody talks about the power of positive thinking, nobody talks about the power of wishful thinking.

    It doesn't look likely that gap will be closed today.

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    which gap

  • blues

    of course… unless miracle happens, I really doubt that the gap gets close today…

  • springheel_jack

    SPX action today still looks like a rounded top, but on the way down now.

  • gmak

    Probably because the EUR sellers are .gov; and the buyers are what's left when .gov sits back and takes their collective hand off of the button.

  • blues

    SPY open gap…

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    shorted CSCO too, seems like it wants to come back down to earth.

  • Road_Kill

    “It doesn't look likely that gap will be closed today.”

    Your buying me a beer if it does.

  • Offtimer

    Can we end up where we started the day off?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    And still a scenario that might be playing (arghh, I'm seeing them all over the place)

    we're missing w5 of 5 down, since the big vertical drop this was an expending triangle.

    That would put us tomorrow way beyond 1030 and on our way to 980

  • Bart7

    ya mean with a beer?

  • springheel_jack

    Done, against a half if it doesn't.

    Doesn't seem fair to get even odds on this one.

  • blues

    There are simply too many support level right now on SPY, there's the support currently we are just bouncing off of and then support at 106 and then 105.85 and then 105.6 and maybe until we penetrated 105.5 hard then we may have a chance at the LOD…

  • Road_Kill

    lol thanks for taking it easy on me there . Oh to dream…

  • Osso

    under 120….could be a place to start shorting….though

  • springheel_jack

    Agreed. Serious obstacle course.

  • Osso

    shorted IBM…..120.02

  • PRSGuitars

    Bong rip for some of us

  • springheel_jack

    Dreams are cheap. If this rally doesn't turn around soon, they might be all we bears can still afford. :-)

  • Road_Kill

    Yeah Im gonna need one too it seems.

  • nummy

    indeed … can't wait for 4:20 after the close.

  • Joe8888

    Wow, nice selloff on IBM….Hmm

  • blues

    http://www.dsnews.com/articles/new-housing-cras

    Now we really need some chinese with hard cold cash to come and buy it up!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    1.4470 tgt for w5 down

  • blues

    wow, ya, what's happening to IBM?!

  • PRSGuitars

    2ft roor, 1ft steamroller, bubbler (6″ or so), small bowl, joints, blunts.

    The choices are endless. Got some sick stuff too from a friend — Cali's finest, here in Ohio… mmm.

  • nummy

    we get similar quality here in Miami .. those roors are sick … personally, i enjoy the volcano vap … don't “smoke” anymore per se.

  • Road_Kill

    “Hope leads to quiet desperation
    When reality obscures the dream
    Makes the mind a grave of memories
    That wander like the lonely breeze
    Whose whispers echo through ruins rust
    of towers torn and dreams turned to dust “

    Fates Warning, Ivory Gate of Dreams

  • Joe8888

    Earnings in 2 weeks,,,October 15th…..

  • Osso

    nice avatar…!!!!!

  • blues

    Simply amazing… DXY is near Friday's HOD and yet equity is up 2%?! I guess like they said, DXY/SPY trade has gotten too easy? Yet the winner of this dislocation seems to be on bull's side…

  • PRSGuitars

    Love them except the taste of burnt popcorn is all I can think of re: volcano. Depends — much better for you and it's fun to walk around with a bag of high at a party or with your buddies.

    We should continue post-close… gotta focus, gotta focus… haha

  • nummy

    makes me wonder if we'll eventually see /DX and /ES down in the same day too

  • springheel_jack

    Great stuff, if a little gloomy.

    Hopefully we we bears can soon abandon gloomy poetry & party again.

    I don't think we can expect mournful haikus from the bulls though, if only because they're not as well read.

  • Iguanadon

    ES doesn't go down, it was just an illusion last week.

  • Mr_Lahey

    More Lahey musings….we are dumping our IBM mainframe where I work (4 year university). We've been a Big Blue shop FOREVER. Beginning of next year, we will be all Oracle/Sun, with a handful of Windows/Linux servers. No More IBM.

  • Bart7

    I love morose poetry….

  • blues

    Ha, Ya, that'll be the day, then that would be a REALLY EASY trade, both to ZERO!

  • Osso

    hi there Iguanito…..!!!!

  • EDC

    four charts of my interest… 20 day 2hr

    http://www.screencast.com/users/EDC999/folders/

    It seems difficult to believe we will make a higher high but I could be very, very wrong.

  • Road_Kill

    Yeah these guys write some good stuff even if it can be a tad dperssing at times.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    I think they may have finally disconnected

  • Iguanadon

    How ya doin' Osso? My one and only day here this week. Golf in the morning and then driving to DC to conduct some training the rest of the week. Which is good. Means I only lose money 1 day this week instead of 5! 😉

  • Road_Kill

    Looks like today is going to be another running in the street with only my underwear while screaming day.

  • springheel_jack

    Very therapeutic. Everyone should do it once in a while.

  • Bart7

    is that a flag forming on the S&P 10 min? Looks more like a cobra getting ready to strike…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Agreed… That is just a normal stress relief tool for me. Might cause a bit of stress for my neighbors, but whatcha gonna do?

    Skal!

  • Osso

    hope one day we may golf together…somewhere, remembering these crazy days of trading….

  • Road_Kill

    Seems you partake in this activity as well sj, good for you. You will live longer.

  • Road_Kill

    LOL

  • Iguanadon

    You'll have to yell to me because I spend most of my time walking through the woods saying “dammit, I know that ball came in here somewhere….”

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    sheeshhhhhh My blind dog just fell in a drainage hole and I had to fish him out, got covered in mud with him and am just icked off. :)

  • nummy

    anna did you see dexter season 4 last night?

  • Road_Kill

    Crossing the MACD 0 on the 5 min. DIE B$TCH DIE!

  • malusDiaz

    Personally, I like to light my pants on fire first, easiest way to take them off, and it's motivational for the running and screaming!

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks
  • CorporalCarrot

    Holy shit folks. I've been away for most of the day, have neither added to or subtracted from my position. I had a stop at 9,825 on my DOW which nearly hit but didn't (9,824 HOD!!!!! LOL), and I've come back from the gym to see the bloody Dow is still where it was at 10.30am!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Wtf!!!!!!!!

  • dollar

    All the way on the other side what's happening with CNXT?

  • Road_Kill

    Hmmm, I am awlays open to new suggestions. Seems you are a true connisuer (how the F do you spell that).

  • Iguanadon

    And if the cops or guys in white lab coats come, you have a valid reason for ripping your pants off and running down the street screaming.

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol did i come back just in time? fall B**** fall!!!!!

  • Road_Kill

    LOL obviously that scene was based on true events and your truly.

  • malusDiaz

    “connoisseur” gets lots of google hits ! must be it!

  • gmak

    Just hit the VWAP on SPX. so far just a pin.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    No Nummy I missed it! I love that show. damn thanks for reminding me :))))

  • Iguanadon

    Just needed one more “s” in there… so close.

  • Road_Kill

    LOL thats dedication.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    I had that ready the last time you said it and I was too busy to post it. Gotcha this time. LOL

  • dollar

    Well, this is messy: Five pension funds are leading a class-action suit seeking billions of dollars in damages from Bank of America (BAC) over the Merrill Lynch takeover, Ohio AG Richard Cordray said after filing the complaint in Manhattan federal court. The suit also goes personally after BofA CEO Kenneth Lewis, former Merrill chief John Thain, other execs and the board.

  • Joe8888

    Thx

  • thelefteyeguy

    the fools perhaps just noticed the disconnect on the $

  • nummy

    it's going to be an awesome season! should be on demand now for you.

  • Road_Kill

    LOL, yeah I get the urge to do that urge frequently.

  • shortcover

    missed my entry into QID by 5 cents…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    signing up today,, your'e da best

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    LOL took them long enough. :)

  • Duuuuuude

    DavidDT, I just looked at the FIB time series on the SPX. Does this line up with yours? Looks signifigant.

    http://screencast.com/t/D99RmAzC

  • Road_Kill

    Well a few mor emoments of this and that VWAp will come right up and snuggle our nice /ES buns from below.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Falling wedge on /ES 512tck. Slight throw-over on the bottom. Curious to see how this plays out…

    Skal!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I hope this balloon deflats like a sharp knife just piereced it LOL

  • PRSGuitars

    No real options heavy vol. today so I'm not sure what to think about the masters of the market bearing up for a drop. Checked the next four expiries so far, not seeing anything of substance today on either side thus far on SPY.

    We've got heavy divergent acc/dist vol. today according to zerohedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-anythi

    $DJT (transports) showing much relative weakness and leading us lower perhaps?
    http://screencast.com/t/2aEHebrfIL

    Nasdaq futures — wtf, where'd that strength come from? Didn't add at 1730 like planned because it happened so fast but am fine adding if we make it back up there.
    http://screencast.com/t/RDtBeHLJl

    This day reminds me of 9/21 overall. it led to slightly higher prices the next day after a weak EOD rally attempt and eventually to the glorious spike + top on the indices after the FOMC announcement. I think we'll grind higher for a day or two and then the bottom will fall out of the market for real.

    I'm thinking I'll wait for higher prices to add (as I should've done at /es 1060, meh) to my shorts and will stop out on my /es hedge below like 1048 (entered at 1037). Looking to add long term puts if tomorrow is another up day and VIX comes in a little bit (1065 /es area, 24 VIXish).

    This is a very, very big opportunity for shorts. I'm in high gear at the moment looking for where to add (and how much to keep in reserves for 1080-1125).

  • Osso

    is this a press release..???? its all over……the blogosphere…..!!!!!

  • PRSGuitars

    Should note that a bounce here would fit the bill quite nicely. 1063 by EOD perhaps?

    This whole limited range post 1030 am thing sucks for trading. Nice for positioners but I want to get back to scalping!

  • Offtimer

    Watchout for aligators, we need you.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Look at the freaking VIX still dropping..now come on ??

  • PRSGuitars

    lol — I post at different sites b/c some people don't make the journey to SOH or xtrends or acetraders. Figure that since I don't have a blog (and thus am not vying for traffic) it's more acceptable to multipost my musings to benefit the most number of traders…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    heheheh you're telling me, I worry about those reptiles. LOL

  • blues

    Well, guess people have no fear! This is just a minor correction before we are heading to 2000+ on SPX!

  • Road_Kill

    Transports rolled over

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    That is crazy this way the damn MM's can suck out $ from the options. :)

  • Nightwind

    I think how /es deals with the wedge pattern will give us insight on whether this is a W2 pullback or not.

  • Osso

    wasa joky..PRS…..!!!!! keep them coming….they are good

  • lilme

    Off that 'reliable source' Yahoo message board, someone said (has anyone else heard this?) –

    On 09 25 09 –
    CNBC commentator revealed this morning that the long term plan for the US DOLLAR – is to be devalued via a 4% inflation rate for the next 17 years, thereby cutting the value of the US Dollar in half, to make paying back the 60-Trillion we owe much more manageable and easier to pay off.

  • blues

    not if DXY can't get throught 77.1!

  • gmak

    Looks like a big ole bearish wedge on the SPX. Flat bottom, downward sloping top.

  • Road_Kill

    Very nice when you talk like that

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    oh yea baby! :)

  • PRSGuitars

    Oh no worries — no offense taken. Love your stuff too. Good luck Oss!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I was speaking to the tape LOL

  • ablebonus

    Jim Rickards, pretty good interview. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=127551173

  • CorporalCarrot

    Is there any actual humans trading today or is it all computers?

  • Road_Kill

    LOL well I hope you were young lady or that would be one means passive aggressive streak you have.

  • blues

    sure look like a bull flag on SPY 60 minutes chart though… scary…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    you know I was I love to see this thing just burn. :)

  • Road_Kill

    I think its been computers since 2007

  • Styrfart

    God! it's like looking on paint drying! ;.(

  • Iguanadon

    Worse, it's like watching paint dry and realizing that as it dries it isn't the color you really wanted….

  • CorporalCarrot

    I just can't believe that the market has essentially moved less than 10 DOW points in like 6 hours. Holiday or no holiday, thats ridiculous.

  • Road_Kill

    Looks like market gods are ignoring your prayers today. Might have to go sacrifice an earthworm or something.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Agreed, though the breadth suggests that this is NOT our wave 2 M of 3P down. More of the lovely waiting game…

    Skal!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I will sacrifice my Chanel bag if I have to LOL while on knees. heheheh

  • Road_Kill

    At this point I prefer the market to just sit still.

  • dollar

    yeah, puke green

  • DeadPrez

    Could this just be the “new” volume? Every since flash trading was banned volume has been thin.

  • Road_Kill

    Just make sure its in season. Market gods dont like last season sacrifices.

  • nummy

    that has yet to be implemented

  • Styrfart

    LoL, Ja fy fan och vi behöver en sup!

  • Road_Kill

    Sometimes I wonder if it is just one big video game and the joke is on us. Nothing behind the numbers.

  • blues

    yup, they are pushing the tape up for month/quarter end! Once break above 106.4 on SPY up we go! And you know what DXY still pretty high, wow…

  • insite

    the matrix has you, neo

  • CorporalCarrot

    Ok folks, gameplan.

    If the market neither breaks down in the last half hour, or has a ridiculous melt-up on low volume, any ideas about tomorrow? It seems weird there were so many weak hands last week and this week we're all bullish again.

  • Road_Kill

    Yeah I know, need to stop taking the blue pills and take my regular meds.

  • CorporalCarrot

    oh lol strike that, I spoke too soon.

  • PRSGuitars

    reposted for you:
    ——-

    No real options heavy vol. today so I'm not sure what to think about the masters of the market bearing up for a drop. Checked the next four expiries so far, not seeing anything of substance today on either side thus far on SPY.

    We've got heavy divergent acc/dist vol. today according to zerohedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-anythi

    $DJT (transports) showing much relative weakness and leading us lower perhaps?
    http://screencast.com/t/2aEHebrfIL

    Nasdaq futures — wtf, where'd that strength come from? Didn't add at 1730 like planned because it happened so fast but am fine adding if we make it back up there.
    http://screencast.com/t/RDtBeHLJl

    This day reminds me of 9/21 overall. it led to slightly higher prices the next day after a weak EOD rally attempt and eventually to the glorious spike + top on the indices after the FOMC announcement. I think we'll grind higher for a day or two and then the bottom will fall out of the market for real.

    I'm thinking I'll wait for higher prices to add (as I should've done at /es 1060, meh) to my shorts and will stop out on my /es hedge below like 1048 (entered at 1037). Looking to add long term puts if tomorrow is another up day and VIX comes in a little bit (1065 /es area, 24 VIXish).

    This is a very, very big opportunity for shorts. I'm in high gear at the moment looking for where to add (and how much to keep in reserves for 1080-1125).

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahahaha neither do I !!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup. If it does neither, expect more lovely chop until we get (most likely) a final push higher….

    Skal!

  • PRSGuitars

    EUR basing out. Good for a long to 1.4630 or 1.4650 at least (my guess).

  • Joe8888

    They still selling IBM….Damn..

  • rhae

    SPY 60m tagged 62% retrace and thin resistance at 106.40 and if it can not get and hold above 106.60 for 20 minutes, I will proclaim price has enter wave C down….
    God that is so risky, so ya better not, it is only a hair line crack…

  • Road_Kill

    Man if RIMM s down this bad on a freaky up day like this, its going to 0 if we have a serious down day.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Thanks PRS.

    You know, I've been looking at various charts for the last 10 days, different variations of 1,5 10 minutes etc and the Dow 9,800 level seems like a farily strong support/resistance area. It was the point for lift off last wednesday, then when the market fell through it, it became strong resistance, now today it has essentially flatlined at this point.

    I have stops at 9,825 and I have a horrible feeling I will get stopped out here overnight, lose my position then have nothing as it all crashes down.

  • Osso

    covered IBM…118.964

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Falling wedge broke to the upside retesting just know (?). /ES 512tck

    Skal!

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    That's a great interview clip. I recommend all rats take a peek.

  • PRSGuitars

    Im with you, 1063 /es by tomorrow morning at least. TICK staying above -600 all day and EUR basing out now.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Falling wedge upper boundary also coincides beautifully with a regression trend channel drawn from today's peak.

    Skal!

  • anthem

    I bet we see a retest of /ES 1061 today and then it'll either break up some more or correct slightly down. I doubt we'll fill any gaps thats for sure. . .

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Sounds good. Breadth refuses to lose any steam too… Not typical action for a wave 2…

    Skal!

  • gmak

    So you think the market will go either up or down. Clever. lol 😉

  • PRSGuitars

    What sizing are you using? sounds too big to be manageable…

    When in doubt scale out of a tiny bit (25%) and commit to re-adding higher. Move your stop up to accomodate. You remain in the trade and increase your risk tolerance by accepting a small loss now.

    I know exactly your conundrum. Are you futures-capable? Great for hedging. Tough to know how to assist w/o knowing your positions though.

    When in doubt, step off the gas. Works for driving and for trading. When in doubt, close some and commit to adding higher — you'll at WORST keep a majority on for whatever decline we have but increase your tolerance to the point you can stay in long enough to see it to fruition.

    Have a plan for Dow 10,100, too.

  • gmak

    Bollinger and price exhaustion at 1.4617 first. Need to get past that and I think it's tough.

  • anthem

    Yeah, I think so. But I do think it'll go to retest 1060-1061 first before going up or going down. . .

    Then again, isn't it always whether it'll go up or go down ?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Still glad I kept Harvey out of that one! :)

  • Road_Kill

    glad I took your advice.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Modest Mouse always says it best. This is what I feel about our current rally…

    “Although we often wondered
    It was no thing of wonder
    The shit that flew from our minds
    Grass stains and fresh fruit
    Reminds our shoes of horse glue
    On this ridiculous climb
    With great tunnel vision
    We built ourselves a mission
    And let our motives decide
    Oh, what a vague description
    Of what we have been missing
    So why would anyone try”

    Skal!

  • Road_Kill

    Nice

  • PRSGuitars

    Very much so. Hence why i am so nervous to add to shorts just yet. Would rather ride the drop with what i've got rather than get blown out of the water at SPX 1090 as I try to hang on after getting too aggressive.

    Finally learning! hooray. Would you mind posting your trading background for those of us young'uns who are inspired by your ambition? I think a lot of us (myself included) arrived too late to know your story…

    if you want to, wait for a half hour or so – i know we're all in high focus mode at the moment.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Thats what I have been doing. I have a core position, and last week was lucky enough to add lots more at 9,875 and 9,900 but I'm kicking myself for not taking profits last week. I've set my stops for 9,825 and 9,850 for those two additions, so if they hit I've still made money albeit far less than if I hadn't been greedy last week.

    I'm not overextended, but I guess like a lot of people, I'm trying to pick that point to really commit, if you know what I mean?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Come pop that freaking VIX :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Gladly, but I will wait til after the close. You can call me Mr. Inspiration!

    Skal!

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • molecool

    Agreed – NYSE A/D ratio has been spiking up into the 4+ region – right now at 3.9ish. Does not feel like a 2nd wave to me either. I think we might be seeing 1100 this week – sorry rats.

  • PRSGuitars

    Yup. There is no point to commit. It's scaling — thats the only way to survive (until you see a major swing point like my NQ 1748 short, but man, i should've really gone balls deep at that point).

    It seems like you should relax and ask yourself about tiemframe of trading. Are you in this for scalps? swing trades? IT positions? I have a hard time not taking profits so i began hedging — CAREFULLY — at key levels with /es against my SPY puts. Also have /nq short.

    Do not be tricked out of positions too early. Do not be tempted by profits unless they are easy to lock in while staying true to the motives of the trade. You are trading what the trade requires, NOT your ideas about when the money “is enough” or isn't. If the trade says stay in, STAY IN. If you're only in it for a scalp, then get out when you can. Define your timeframe FIRST, i would say…

    Amazing anecdote from Livermore, via Gary @ smart money tracker.
    http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/2009/02/ol

  • springheel_jack

    I'm seeing a bull flag on SPX and a bull wedge on EURUSD.

    If so, it looks like we may close at the HOD.

  • lilme

    Thanks for finding this, I need to read the Warsh WSJ piece and try to put it all together – on my level…sounds like RE is a good approach. TX

  • ACJ

    oh, you mean like they've been doing since 1971?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks… Would have liked to go with “Bankrupt on Selling.” But I have a feeling that is more of how I will feel when I cannot withdraw the money from my account in the next few months… 😛

    Skal!

  • Styrfart

    Getting desperate? :-) LoL

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I've loved Primary wave 2 so much i can't wait for Primary Wave 4 lol That fucker should last 9 months after we get through Primary wave 3. :)

  • CorporalCarrot

    Thanks Mate, some good advice there. I'm not really a technical/EW trader to be honest. I'm more of a fundamentals guy, and I believe that the US economy is screwed, and ultimately the market will catch up to this fact. Unfortunately, I find myself (due to the reward scheme where I work) MASSIVELY long equities that I can't get out of for a few months yet, so its been picking the point to start shorting/hedging thats been difficult. I would say that at present I have a small positive delta, and I am trying to pick the point at which I go seriously into a short position.

    At the moment I'm comfortable enough however.

  • Joe8888

    SPY Channel and 618% retrace area, HOD,,,

  • lilme

    It explains why housing prices in the 'better' parts of the SF Bay area really have not come down that much, esp in downtown SF, I believe that people with money are using RE in SF as a safe haven – probably correctly so. $400K – $500K for one bedroom condo…the prices came down a little but not that much.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    interesting!
    I normally plot time series off latest TDSetup/Countdown completed signals and don’t go past 21 normally – but your chart looks interesting…keeping my fingers crossed

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  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_E4S5EKA7T7FXNOYJBIUTZIQTM4 Richard

    It's impossible to predict anything these days.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_E4S5EKA7T7FXNOYJBIUTZIQTM4 Richard
  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_E4S5EKA7T7FXNOYJBIUTZIQTM4 Richard

    You can't predict anything these days.