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The Big Furball
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The Big Furball

by The MoleJune 2, 2015

Equities have clearly been one big nasty furball over the past few weeks. You remember me writing about this weeks ago already and with the exception of one quick fake out higher we have reversed back into sideways shake out territory. Tough going here but to me it seems like we are either witnessing massive accumulation or distribution over the past few weeks. I’ve touched on that about a month ago and the fact that conditions have remained since then tells me that whatever comes next is going to be significant.

2015-06-02_spoos_briefing

Which means my modus operandi has been one of taking calculated risks near potential inflection points. On the E-Mini we are sloping lower slowly but seem to be jumping higher occasionally to shake out as many participants as possible. And that means I cannot enter here – neither long nor short. Well perhaps long if we were near the recent spike low. But I’ve got a much better entry and I’m posting it for the subs below.

2015-06-02_gold_briefing

Gold is very juicy here – I’m grabbing a long with a stop below the NLSL which also happens to be near that diagonal I drew. Clearly a short position below this is a possibility but tough going – those daily NLSLs  (right panel) won’t give way easily.

2015-06-02_GBPCAD_briefing

GBP/CAD – very nice context developing but so far no resolution. I’m long here with a top below 1.898.

2015-06-02_soybeans_update

Soybeans update – nice entry yesterday and I came very close to being stopped out. Moving my stop up to break/even now. If it wants to get going then now is probably the time.

2015-06-02_Natgas_update

I also grabbed natgas yesterday – so far so good but I’m leaving my stop in place as we haven’t moved anywhere yet. But the longer we remain those ST NLBLs the higher the chance for a stab higher. Volatility should set in here in the near future.

2015-06-02_AUDCHF_update

AUD/CHF is also still nibbling on it. Keeping my stop where I left it.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    RELOAD POST – I added a ton of juicy setups.

  • Bill

    All setup for the day boss, thanks!

  • Skynard

    Nice, loking forward to today:)

  • Skynard

    Dollar just shit itself:) One more move down and could be substantial.

  • Skynard

    Looking for that 20350 on /NDK real soon.

  • Skynard

    Here is our big FN move, woohoo:)

  • Skynard

    Will be forced to take full profit on /6A @ .7750 (Res) and wait for a pullback.

  • DudePlunger

    Had a little trip to West Virginia last week, back in action now.

    Long CHFJPY from yesterday, doing well, JPY weakness across the board. But, I had a really shitty week last week – after catching USDCAD I went on to have 7 straight losers and ended the week down 2R. Trying to rebound this week with proper trade selection

  • Skynard

    SPX 2100 support, maybe:)

  • Ronebadger

    EVERYONE knows that…I read that everywhere…now what?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not that big yet but it’s a good start.

  • Skynard

    Stay FN short:) Move we have been waiting for, the stars are aligned now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t you have a plan BEFORE you take a setup?

  • Ronebadger

    Short from yesterday. MAY add below ES 2095. Have stop loss in place. Watching and waiting for taking profits.

  • Skynard

    A scalper could have taken profit, but short is the play. Sounds like the Geico:)

  • Skynard

    Good place to add my friend:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And there’s always the dip buyer… well, we did our thing. Another day another entry.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not so sure – this smells like a gap fill.

  • ridingwaves

    Just your friendly fed officer saying no vote for rate hike this month…

  • Skynard

    Could be, although so many clues today.

  • Skynard

    Taking a long entry on /NG retest.

  • Ronebadger

    Something smells…watching…

  • Skynard

    Full FN short:)

  • Skynard

    Think we may see the entire week down, have not seen one of them for a while:)

  • Skynard

    Flipped /ZW to long @ 494, lucky SOB:)

  • Skynard

    Save that gap for a W2:)

  • HeadNShoulder

    Took that blue arrow entry this morning and exit now, done for the day, thanks Mole.

  • Skynard

    Closing /ZC @ 360 (res)

  • Billabong

    The weakening USD (DX) and sell-off in bonds is moving commodity companies like FCX +6%, BTU +10%, ABX +3%…

  • Billabong

    Any thoughts on DX? Thanks.

  • Skynard

    Extreme ZL signal, shorts are approved:)

  • HeadNShoulder

    sitting this one out, watching your play as usual

  • Skynard

    Great sucker move here, ever see a bull fall off a cliff?

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ greenlander1

    Oil long from 3 days ago looking good, re-entered dollar short with a smaller position, and exited AAPL on the near gap fill this morning (looks like it wants to bounce back but not trusting equities for the near term)

  • Skynard

    Easy 94, and retest of the lows. My target is 92 for W5.

  • Skynard

    Notice the participation today vs. yesterday?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Told ya…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    @Skynard:disqus told ya we’re getting a gap fill

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If you’re right we’re building you a little shrine 😉

  • HeadNShoulder

    he is a bot, he will flip to the opposite sides anytime like a machine in favor of his risk/reward I suppose. I just cant take the heat from this equity craziness, was -$40,000 last night and happy to run away with $35,000 this morning. geez

  • Skynard

    That was you and a good call. Do not want to miss this move:)

  • Skynard

    Oh great, that would be nice. Almost certain given my data.

  • Skynard

    Stops run /NG, up we go MF’s.

  • Skynard

    One of my clients gave my $2500 to work with and was tough to trade with, he doudled it to 5K. Doulded hit account in about 2 months. That was even FN difficult to do. Now we have some room to play:)

  • tristan37

    I will lay the first brick to that shrine, nice call, low risk high reward!

  • Skynard

    We may see a div develop here to run stops and tag the upper BB 5 min. If not, that will definately show waekness.

  • Skynard

    It’s a fake rats, FN stop run.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hate to be always right but here we are…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Take it to the bank.

  • Skynard

    Just bought a shit ton of TVIX. I know WTF! Top of the hourly trendline (res)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    (puts gun to head)

  • Skynard

    Most exellent Mole:)

  • Skynard

    In the Skynard’s point of view, this day has been nothing more than a FN huge stop run. Good trading rats:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I live to serve.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe:)

  • Billabong

    FN? Thanks for your other response.

  • Skynard

    Short AUD, fuck em. data tonight

  • Bill

    I’d hate to be the AUD right now.

  • Skynard

    Wait for it Mole, good short opportunity today. The ZL is FN spot on

  • Skynard

    Look at /NG go:)

  • stovis

    Yep, they did the usual stop run just below the low of the previous day candle and then launched it back up.

  • newbfxtrader

    LOL. I lost money on that one WHile the VIX went up. Go figure. It was retarded.

  • Skynard

    Nice, you got long?

  • stovis

    Yeah

  • newbfxtrader

    Should be good for a pullback.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Heheheheeeee – almost got swept there :-) Are those fuckers reading my blog?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. So far you’re limping behind mate.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    STILL short the NQ – pushed my stop to 4534 when I looked at the Zero.

  • stovis

    They could be. I actually had my stop at 2.5980, but I put it lower when I looked at it and thought it was too close.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s a snowball of a chance… long above it.

  • newbfxtrader

    DXY support at 95.

  • Skynard

    Tested initail low, up we go on the /DX

  • stovis

    /NKD has a weekly shooting star.

  • Skynard

    Suppot @ 20350 for a bounce or not:)

  • Skynard

    Would hate to be long right now:)

  • Skynard

    Oh, can hardly wait for that shrine:) Exactly right!

  • Skynard

    No problem Bro,

  • Skynard

    Just using the greatest tool on the web Bro.

  • newbfxtrader

    I try stay away from short side when zero is above 0 and priceabove VWAP. Its not worth the aggravation. Longs preferred. Of course shorts in opposite conditions.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I was still in it from this morning.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Pink candles okay?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    So what brought you out of hiding? It’s been a while! Welcome back.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See above – glad to see you again, Stovis.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe

  • Skynard

    Taking profit 2.72, /NG

  • Skynard

    Profit /6J

  • newbfxtrader

    2.713 ish is a nice resistance. Fancy a short?

  • Skynard

    Na, like my profits. On to the Next set-up

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I be damned….

  • newbfxtrader

    They bots like your trendline….

  • Skynard

    In the cards…………

  • Skynard

    Are we having fun yet, damn nice signal.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Having fun – but it won’t be real unless we drop through VWAP. We got one more hour… will hold off judgment until the close.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Somebody likes it :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Skynard

    Both hourly’s have turned now, time to slide.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I dunno – that f..ing buyer always shows up. Until we see a real breach we got nothing but chrun baby churn.

  • Skynard

    Sucker buy in:)

  • Skynard

    You will see:) Look at that wedge on the 5 min now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    /$$ /$$
    | $$ | $$
    /$$ /$$ /$$$$$$ /$$$$$$$ /$$$$$$ /$$$$$$ /$$$$$$
    | $$ | $$ /$$__ $$ /$$__ $$ |____ $$|_ $$_/ /$$__ $$
    | $$ | $$| $$ $$| $$ | $$ /$$$$$$$ | $$ | $$$$$$$$
    | $$ | $$| $$ | $$| $$ | $$ /$$__ $$ | $$ /$$| $$_____/
    | $$$$$$/| $$$$$$$/| $$$$$$$| $$$$$$$ | $$$$/| $$$$$$$
    ______/ | $$____/ _______/ _______/ ___/ _______/
    | $$
    | $$
    |__/

  • stovis

    Thanks. You made a few weeks back that what drives you crazy is missing a trade that you meant to be in. I did that las night with /6E. Saw a good setup on the 4 hour charts and then flaked on it. Was thinking that if I had posted the chart here I would have made sure to follow and enter the play. Maybe I’ll post some charts here from time to time. Next.

  • Skynard

    Trying to diverge here that is for sure.