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The End Is Near!
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The End Is Near!

by The MoleSeptember 28, 2009

In typical megalomaniac fashion I fully appreciate the value of a good entry (in life as well as in trading), thus I thought it best to burst back onto the scene with an announcement of bearish news – and that of course in my inimical personal style:

Here is me spreading the bear gospel right on Wall Street – maybe I should have worn pants instead of that glue-on beard that day as the NYPD did not care much about my eatable strawberry flavor underwear. Fortunately I had a local bail bondsman on speed dial. BTW, does someone happen to know how to remove superglue from skin?

Just before I left for my mini vacation (by European standards) my charts were pointing towards 1080 or 1100 as the top candidates for completion of Primary {2} of Cycle wave c. In the past week since I scaled back my participation on the blog not much has really changed regarding that original assessment. On Wednesday we indeed touched 1080.15 – okay, so I was off by 15 cents – please accept my deepest apologies for the slip up – I won’t let it happen again.

As you can see on the chart above we’ve got two main scenarios:

Soylent Blue: Primary {2} ended last Wednesday and we are in the first throws of Primary {3}. The initial small leg down looks very motive and that’s encouraging. But a bounce could come any day/minute – so be mentally prepared for more pain and thus for Soylent Orange. However if we keep dropping here the bears need to first conquer Hamburger Hill (noted on the chart) and finally 978.51 before we can more confidently declare Primary {2} as behind us. Short term we might bounce a little here before we continue downward.

Soylent Orange: We completed (or are near completion of) Minute {iv} of Minor C of Intermediate (Y) of Primary {2} – yes, I haven’t lost my touch during my vacation 😉 Which means we should bounce here and push towards 1100. Be advised that we’ve got a cluster of various fibs between 1090 and 1100 (marked on the chart) – so a turn could occur somewhere in between there. If we breach wave {i} of Minor C at 1039.47 this scenario should be toast and more downside (hence Soylent Blue) would be expected. Unless of course the count is completely different and I would have to back-paddle sometime next week.

Now the big question on everyone’s mind right now is whether or not the top is in or if the bulltards will make a final push towards 1100. Frankly – currently the odds are 50/50 on this one. When I look at various sentiment indicators it’s clear that we have more than satisfied the main criteria for an anticipated turning point of a Primary degree bear market rally – which is that bullish optimism should rival or even exceed that of the previous bull market peak. That of course happened over a week ago – right at the 38.2% time cycle turning point I had projected.

However, as intrepid (and often impatient) bears we are often faced with an inherent dilemma – we underestimate how long market sentiment (i.e. the investing/trading public) takes to catch up with reality. A many bears have been crushed by unwavered exuberance and public consent that a new bull market was in the making. Sometimes it takes weeks and often it takes months – eventually the tape swings our way as it must but at that moment many weak hands have given up or even gone as far as to drink the Kool-Aid and switch over to the bullish camp. I have seen some of that happen right here on Evil Speculator throughout the past two weeks – and although I do feel for the poor souls who will later have to concede having missed one of the shorting opportunities of a lifetime, it is just the moment I have been waiting for. When I saw even the staunchest bears around me throw in the towel, that’s when I added even more short candidates to my increasingly delta negative trading account.

During my absence I have seen the most complicated perspectives being posted in various comments (not by my girls) and frankly some of it was way too complex and esoteric for my simple mind. I personally prefer simplicity and this is probably one of the few times you see me plaster a moving average on a chart. However, the 88 week MA seems to have meaning for the Dow, and perhaps it was coincidence that we turned right there – or perhaps it was not. Fact is that I did not trade against that one – I prefer my good ole’ weekly stochastic – which I never tire to tell anyone who bothers to listen has rarely let me down.

And what is it telling us right now? If you listen carefully and concentrate really hard you can hear it whisper: “Not so fast, buster – don’t have confirmation yet!” Either it’s that or I need to increase my medication. And completely right it is – every Intermediate and Primary degree turn in the tape has been accompanied by a breach through the 75% mark on the slow 5,3 stochastic. Unless that happens we are on very thin ice, rats – so, let’s not go crazy here okay?

Dow theory aficionados are closely looking at the bearish non-confirmation in the trannies right now, which incidentally also happened right at the 88 week MA. First we got a doji and then a fast drop, ahead of the SPX or the INDU – imagine that…

This chart is a bit more complicated but it’s worthwhile digging through it. EWI mentioned the fact that Shanghai Composite has been leading U.S. equities in their latest Financial Forecast. So, I decided to compare the two time cycles and ran into some interesting observations. Not only does the DJSH lead the SPX for example – but it does it based on various Spiral Calendar time cycles – if you want to learn more about what that means click here for a quick intro. Or take a look at this post in which I used the SC to predict the June 25 turn date. I give and I give and I give… Anway, I also created a new SC category, so you can get to all pertinent postings.

In any case – it seems to me that unfortunately the exact time cycle seems to vary – but as it seems to loosely follow SC time cycles it’s worthwhile projecting those turn dates forward, as I have done on the chart above. The 51 day F4 cycle is where our current 1080.15 top was touched and if that one gets blown out of the water then I’m looking at various future SC cycle dates which are marked on the chart.

The old buck has thus far held the 76 mark (barely – it breached it once but bounced back). We all know the implications of this by now – a strengthening Dollar means weakening equities. Whether or not the Feds will let that happen is another issue but I refuse to trade the news or the machinations of the Ministry for Coporate Welfare. I do anticipate some of their actions (e.g. POMO auctions) for my short term trading but long term I need to stick with my charts. Either way the buck needs to hold the 76 line otherwise SPX 1100 or perhaps SPX 1200 is in the cards. Inversely I anticipate the Euro to start weakening and drop significantly in the next few weeks/months – so if you sit on a lot of Euros now might be a good time to bulk up on some greenbacks.

That’s all I have time for this evening – have a lot more chores on my plate before tomorrow morning. See you on the other side, rats – right now the futures look promising 😉

Cheers,

Mole

P.S.: If you wonder about my new avatar you might want to take a look at my late Friday post. Yes, there is method to my madness and the ‘smiley’ is not as friendly as you might think. If you’re lazy (98% of you rats – LOL) then just google ‘Ghost In The Shell Laughing Man’ and you will be enlightened. Excellent fodder for you anime fans btw – which I am myself I must admit.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Scrillhog

    Hey Mole great to have you back..Nice post.

    Away from a computer where I can go through or post many charts, but I have been crunching a lot of numbers. Here's something interesting:

    666.79 x 1.618 = 1079~

  • molecool

    That is fucking cool :-)

    10+

  • DMS425

    On the Dow Jones Shanghia Index, the bearishness does not get better. It re-entered a bear market with a 25% drop, and then failed like a bull with no balls at the 50 DMA, Doji'd the 20 DMA and then dropped. If it is leading and it looks to be, the wheels are coming off.

    Does anyone know if there is an ETF for this POS? Or do I have to play with FXI, EWH. FXI being the better short.

    D

  • mmTesla

    Nice post, much appreciated :-)

  • Keirsten

    FXI/FXP is the your only hope for the broad market trade. I have EDU short on my shopping list going forward- might be worth a look.

  • malusDiaz

    Found, Copy, & Pasted: http://dynamicnotions.blogspot.com/

  • Tronacate

    Nice little bearish Wolffewave on es 5min….my target is 1036…….we'll see if it works out…….cmon dollar……go baby

  • PRSGuitars

    Whenever you have a channel breakout, it could be the mother of all fakeouts. A good target for false breaks is the 133.3% channel extension.

    Part 1: http://screencast.com/t/Q3yzJOsVZpM

    Part 2: http://screencast.com/t/7cE6dZuiPK5

    Thoughts? Comments? I've posted this before but want everyone to know about it, as it's gloriously simple and can even be programmed into TOS charts (i.e., set channel lines, add channel line @ 133.3%, voila…) to appear on all channels you draw, if desired.

    Just a work in progress but perfect since lately we saw the ideal setup for shorting this beast (which I did via NQ, from 1748.50 so far… tee hee hee).

    Sorry, this is the best I can do until I have my old charts back (via Screencast account)… enjoy!

  • PRSGuitars

    Blah — superbrief 133.3% channel extension writeup just posted. Just a teaser of some info. I've explained this a few times before but I hope now it's simpler for people to test (for me, as well as for themselves!).

    It's worked on EUR/USD and /es and obviously, SPX — time to see if random equities exhibit this extension phenomena as well. This is a huge weapon in our arsenal against false breakouts, although, 33.3% of the channel you're dealing with is quite a large stop — so it's more of an ambush target-acquisition tool than a stop-placement tool.

    Thanks for these past 10 days — they've been incredible and it's due no doubt in part to you and Anna stepping up. I've still been a bit in the stratosphere but coming back to trading earth now and want to hit tomorrow hard… trying to toss what I can out there.

  • Keirsten

    I'll try to give is a spin, PRS. The false breakout is a hard one to catch, so if you are getting it dialed in somehow I'm all for it. No need for thanks… I just hope you were all able to stay on track, stay safe and make some money. I'll be back to my own trading tomorrow- Ninja style, so I'll be more quiet than usual. CYA on the other side, buddy. :-)

  • PRSGuitars

    Amen — you really are too humble to take praise, just accept that you're deserving of it already!

    As for the false breakout, it's more like — when a breakout happens, you have a target for a possible quick direction-of-the-breakout trade, as well as a place to add to or establish shorts with a nice, defined (and respected in this case) stop line above which one can easily bail (again, since 1080-1085 was a barrier, too).

    This is just a cursory targeting tool for channel breakouts. If it's a ripper, you'll know fast as the extension will be ripped to shreds and have no credibility, so gotta be fast to kill the losers that do occur (and they DO occur, believe me).

  • Keirsten

    I was just looking at what you've got a second time- I may combine it with Level II for kicks. I'll let you know what I see.

  • PRSGuitars

    Could you elaborate? or do you mean simply to watch how much volume and on what end it occurs to determine veracity of the breakouts and the extension tests?

    Just curious — I am also a tape reader to the extreme and use the TOS active trader despite its flaws to make a fair deal of my trading decisions in the very short term, scalps and such. Glad to hear L2 getting some respect . . . not many tape readers around any more (but this guy is great, http://www.tradeorderflow.blogspot.com).

  • Keirsten

    I'll be keeping an eye on where the orders lie near your extensions and then follow the raw data for verification. I mean on the simplest of levels for someone not using L2, they could just keep their peepers on 1-5 min. volume bars I suppose, but that's still a bit of guessing.

    If I could transplant Matt's brain into my skull I'd be a happy girl. That guy is awesomely smart. And with that… I'm off to get some sleep. I hope you have an excellent week, PRS. It was great to have your input too. I have boasted about you on SOH too. 😀

  • PRSGuitars

    Wow — I am really honored! That's quite the compliment, though I can't imagine what for (other than my weather-alert-esqe FREAKOUT, MONTHLY VWAP INBOUND!! warnings + some channel stuff when I can get it together).

    I love EvilSpec and will always have it as my primary residence as far as I can see… I really aspire to Mole's originations post re: the steel rat. The complexity of discussion and original, diverse thought on this board are unparalleled. Seriously.

    I can't tell you how flattered I am (and pleased that I've been able to add to discussion, finally). I read a while back that something near 1 in 20 individual readers makes comments on a regular basis (maybe less than that), so to think there are about 20 – 40 of us that make up “the group”, is quite incredible that we're in rarefied air merely BEING the authors rather than the readers (or, the moderator(s) rather than the authors, jeez, talk about responsibility…).

    I will do what I can to add more. This blog makes me more honest and a better trader. We all owe it mutual commitment and since I am not a subscriber – though I am really considering evil rat /es – I have to show the love how I can.

    I don't know how I feel about the zero but have heard many wonderful things. I guess I should just shut up, pony up $200 for a month of a slew of the subs, and see how it goes.

  • Tronacate

    Just 1.25 to hit ww target,,,,,just a little bit more…..cmon dollar

  • humble1 ™

    molecool:

    thanks for the helpful e-wave charts.

    query: is there an SPX print where you would consider the idea that this is P2, headed for P3, no longer operative?

    tia!

  • CorporalCarrot

    Morning from Europe folks.

    Some interesting divergences going on here. Early on, all indices opened green before turning fairly negative. The dax has recovered however from more than 30 points down to be 42 points up here at 11.00am CET. FTSe and CAC still down however. German post election euphoria perhaps?

  • SkiingBear

    Two alternative long term trend lines + SMA400
    For me looks quite interesting
    http://www.fotosik.pl/pokaz_obrazek/pelny/82258
    and zoomed
    http://www.fotosik.pl/pokaz_obrazek/pelny/37729

  • Styrfart

    according to tradethenews, it was CPI numbers for several german states,
    #
    Today 04:00am EST/08:00am GMT
    *(GE) GERMAN SEP CPI-SAXONY M/M: -0.3% V 0.1% PRIOR , Y/Y: -0.3% V -0.1% PRIOR – No revisions
    #
    Today 04:00am EST/08:00am GMT
    *(GE) GERMAN SEP CPI-HESSE M/M: -0.5% V 0.3% PRIOR, Y/Y: -0.8% V -0.3% PRIOR – No revisions
    #
    Today 04:00am EST/08:00am GMT
    * (GE) GERMAN SEP CPI-BRANDENBURG M/M: -0.3% V 0.1% PRIOR, Y/Y: -0.4% V -0.2% PRIOR – No revisions

  • CorporalCarrot

    Futures looking more positive now. Today could be a major test. At the moment it looks certain that the market will open up. But will the bounce be sold? Or do we start a new up leg?

  • Styrfart

    Rom ours about mergers between Novartis and Astra Zeneca, AZ up 2,3% in Stockholm OMX30

  • humble1 ™

    xerox is buying somebody: nice premium, lots of cash. the M&A floodgates are opening!

  • Carl V

    Hello from Europe! I don't know if the “end is near” but it looks like EURUSD is starting to crash: a beautiful H&S top formed since Sept 15 is now confirmed: neckline broken this morning, now on pullback mode. A portion of my account is in EUR and I am wondering whether it might be the very best time to convert in USD – seriously!
    (By the way, this should therefore be bad for the stock market, right? – Viva Bear;-)

    http://screencast.com/t/QzHs8l8i3mK5

  • ultrabear

    As Daneric said in response to this very question (sorry can't find the post to link right now), we could take the very fact that you are asking this question as a contrary indicator that a top is at hand.

  • humble1 ™

    hmmm .. that's a little complicated for me.

    let me simplify it as molecool suggests: a certain ewave count is always a possibilty. and there is always a point/print where that particular possibilty must be abandoned for another.

    so, i was just asking molecool about about that. i would be delighted to hear a discussion here from others as to what that print (or stop) would be.

    i think that would be educational and healthy. so, i ask daneric, molecool, and others to please discuss that issue and offer their failsafe point(s).

    tia!

  • CorporalCarrot

    So folks, whats the “gut” feeling? :)

    Are the gains in the futures going to follow through, or is this bounce going to fade like it did on Friday?

  • gmak

    Pre-Market warm up

    I posted over the weekend showing my own personal opinion of what the limiting /momentum factors were for SPX. I'll re-iterate them briefly here. This is not to contradict any of the other postings and opinions, simply to refresh my own.
    1. There is a major upper trend line (resistance) I call BIG YELLOW that runs from the high in October 2007, touches several local peaks and was touched by the recent high in SPX.
    2. SPX put a pin through the mid Bollinger (21,2) on Friday. It is almost the same as the 20 DMA. I see the upper Bollinger narrowing at the same time. To me this says that any bounce will be limited and that we should fall through the mid-Boll. However, this is an opinion and NOT a certainty. I wouldn't trade on this, just be aware of where we are.
    3. When it comes to quarter-end window dressing, there are two types: i) Fund managers making sure that they have the “right” stock names in their portfolio. This is over, IMHO, since only the stupidest fund managers would wait until the last few days to play this game. Also, the domestic equity fund redemptions continue and this makes it difficult to put on new names without selling old ones. IMHO, neutral for the market the last week; and, ii) Price manipulation – which is only good at the close of Wed Sep 30. Anything up until then is games – just like OPEX. Wed may see price movement in a number of the momo darlings.

    Equities
    Asia was red – following the USA in my current thesis.
    Europe is green, up to 0.5% – setting the tone for today on the back of the German election and “CPI” numbers. DAX is green 1.32%(closest predictor to SPX) and FTSE is green 0.39%;
    ES moved up in the early AM then dropped (4 points or so) when Europe opened, but has been climbing with a steep linear trend line, ever since.

    FX

    DXY is up a bit; CAD, EUR, and GBP are weaker, JPY is stronger. It's unusual to see JPY and USD both strong. GOLDS is up a bit – but still below 1000. Oil is essentially flat.
    The H&S was mentioned on the EUR. I'm not a fan of this TA because it is too obvious to too many and usually subject to manipulation. Plus, I'm not sure about the rules governing a pullback – I believe that it is the max point on the right shoulder…. not sure.
    However, as Carl V has so rightly pointed out, we have broken a significant trend line, with a pullback. This usually means a fall is coming (it is quite difficult to manipulate the FX markets for any period of time unless you are a CB and getting the co-op of other CBs. – Note that most CBs want the USD to strengthen and had a chance to confer about it at the G20).

    NEWS
    Takeovers, as others have mentioned. Where will the money come from? Suggests the appetite for risk continues unabated and is bullish for equities – but the deals are not done yet!
    Natural Gas continues to grow in storage – guess it's pretty hard to play to Contango game that GS and others are playing with oil. Plus the EFT is not very popular except for day trades. Suggests that oil is quite overvalued due to too much money chasing too few barrels – but for speculation and NOT consumption.
    Inflation rears it's head in China (still and again).
    Merkel wins election in Germany.
    There is a view that Japan will permit the Yen to strengthen (huh?!) and that this is keeping the YEN strong – which might explain why it is up along with the USD. I suspect it is China putting the nail in the coffin. heh.

    Data
    8:30 Chicago Fed Nat Activity index: no survey, prior = -0.74
    10:00 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity: -4.0% exp; -9.1% prior = looking for an improvement in the 2nd derivative.
    Tomorrow is home prices, and consumer confidence.

    SPX
    As I wrote on the weekend, I'm convinced that we have completed TD wave C of ABC in a broader down sequence. This means that we have possibly begun wave 1 of 5 down. The confirm level for this is SPX=1023.97; tommorw it will rise to 1028; and wed it will be 1038. TD counts the lowest low of the last 13 bars. This is all on a daily chart.
    My line in the sand for a resumption of a bullish move is the BIG YELLOW trend line that was indicated in charts that I posted on Sunday. it is way up around 1070ish on the daily SPX. I also posted that I see any bounce coming around 1014, which is the 61.8% FIB from the ultimate high and 666 low, counting down from the top. It is also the confluence of a longer term trend line that began at the low, an a minor trend line that began in July.
    I think we may bounce off of the mid-Bollinger – but I don't have a view as to how high. FIB might answer this somewhat – but that's getting too detailed and complicated for the time I have available for this.
    The Bollingers are starting to pinch in – which means that inter-day volatility is starting to lessen.
    Volume has been declining even as the market falls. Today is a Jewish holiday and volumes are likely to be lower.
    Bottom line: I don't think that there will be a clear direction for the market up to Wednesday (quarter end). If there is, I'm not sure that I believe that it will be sustainable. Over the next 2 weeks, I see us bouncing off of the 1014 area, but being limited by that upper BIG YELLOW trend line (lower highs).

    EUR
    EUR is running upward in a channel. This is the pullback from having violated a material trend line. 3 min Bollingers are pinching together, but the mid-bollinger is still pointing up. suggests that the toothpaste squeeze might be headed up – unless we can violate the lower bollinger. (blah blah blah – says nothing).

    Enjoy the day. Watch out for the low volume shenanigans, and keep some powder dry.

    Cheers.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Cheers gmak, nice post as usual.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Is stockcharts down again??!!!! urggg…..

  • hepatologist

    Pre-market financial blogger synopsis. Enjoy.

    http://noxtrends.blogspot.com/

  • dollar

    August Chicago Fed National Activity Index (.pdf): -0.90, down from -0.56 in July. Three of the four categories of indicators made negative contributions to the index, but production and income made a positive contribution for the second straight month.

  • thelefteyeguy

    wb MOLE!

    looks like the vacation was much needed…great post!

  • Styrfart

    Annamall, are you banned, by mole? or to sleepy today? Need to hear your intraday prediction of spx! It's smells bad over here, will we see, 1100!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Good morning everyone! Great post Mole and looks like we are on the same page. Either way the END is near! :)

    I am in quite some SPY bearish spreads, but I did that know we may have a technical bounce today and will take profits on the short puts, probably rather quickly, then keep the long ones in my arsenal.

    G/L everyone :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Styrfart hahahah I was just posting, no it would have to be an all out couple war for him to do that! He is smart. (remember he is genius)

    I mentioned last night that we may get a technical bounce today and the volume is quite light. The bulls may also push really hard to get back and test 1080, but I really don't feel it.
    So I think we open higher, fill the gap and then just chop around today. :))))

  • Styrfart

    you're my kind of lady! went bull, on omx dip and waiting if I should exit now or wait for NYSE bell! not good, feel to greedy! it's +10pips!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Good for you, I would take the money and run Stryfart :) (but that's me) LOL

  • Carl V

    Gmak, thanks for a nice snapshot. To answer your question on a possible target for this ES pullback, please see the attached which indicates where the MIDAS line from the top of last week stands: currently at 1049.4, then we have the 38.2% Fib from the same top. So this pullback will perhaps tops there, or I might be totally wrong and we head for higher. Pls also note the little midas line drawn from the bottom of pre-market this morning: breaking this line to the downside would mean to me we are heading for new lows and hence breaking today intrady low at 1035. And we all want 1034 (ES futures DEC09, not SPX) to be broken, don't we..?
    http://screencast.com/t/pqZ7ZG4p0Z2

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Just added long USD/JPY long, looking for a retracement to 90

  • Styrfart

    LoL, had to check, it was 15pips! Will take a chance, and wait for your 1080/1100 before the kiss of death again!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ok be careful, as we could reverse right after the open and just chop around. Don't lose that profit Styr, and how is Stockholm..got to visit there one day. :)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    maybe some negative news for Apple?
    BRUSSELS (AFP)–The European Union's consumer czar said Monday that Apple Corp.'s (AAPL) iPhones would be taken off the market if national authorities find manufacturing faults lie behind mystery screen explosions.
    “I don't need [Apple's] permission to stop goods entering the market,” Meglena Kuneva told reporters in Brussels. “If goods are dangerous, then we will order a recall.”

  • Styrfart

    sunny, a bit windy today – air is clear! 14 celsius! You're welcome! summer or in the winter! sailing or iceskating! in front of the cityhall!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I know it must be gorgeous, and it's on my list along with Bari Italy from my family is from :)

  • gmak

    Draw a line from your peak, through the next highest peak and ending up at the high from last week. Don't you see this as resistance?

    Cheers.

  • gmak

    I may be seeing the chart incorrectly. I can't read the time scale at the bottom, so I'm a little lost.

  • Styrfart

    I think I been to Bari, isn't it a island? People from the nordics mostly go for vacation around the Med and in the winter goes to Thailand.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ya it is! :)

  • Styrfart

    I love the amalfi coast, and just hanging at a taverna with a grappa! :-) My wife preferre Milan, Genoa … shopping!

  • blues

    Look like we are gapping up pretty big, it'll be interesting to see what happen to this gap… It seems previous weeks that we always gap down big on Monday and get filled sometime within the week… now let's see if the opposite happens… it if does…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    under the bullish count it's wave [iii] of i and under the bearish count it's iii of c of ii

  • Carl V

    Gmak, I am in Brussels here, so using the local time (GMT +1) so the last bar here below is now at 9:15 am EST, not 15:15.
    Yes I agree with your last post about possible resistance; will see how it goes. My take: usually, and I mean usually, the last pre-market move just before opening (15 minutes from here) is usually in the wrong direction because stop runner will go the the other side. As we know there is also often a direction change 30-45 minutes after the open. Exciting moment :-)
    http://screencast.com/t/V8GdgwVMr

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ahhh I would so love to see both, and shop too…hehehehe

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Morning Blues, I am expecting hte gap to fill rather quickly, and then chop and slop today. :)

  • Styrfart

    that would be fun! not the shopping part! :-) hate that!

  • BaldEagle

    Can someone show a chart of the futures last night? How the hell can we have broken 1041, and now we've reversed and are headed for an up day? Fucking bullshit. Was it another mysterious buyer at 2 am?

  • gmak

    <thumbsup> :-)

  • gmak

    Buying began again just after the Europe open at 3:30AM EDT after selling off at the open (3 AM).

  • Bart7

    As mentioned by Art Cashin, the only person worth listening to on CNBX, is the old addage, buy Yom Kippur kicking in? Yom Kippur ends at nightfall, September 28, 2009.

  • blues

    Ya, then it'll be a real change of character wouldn't? :) Before when we were going up, market always bottom around 10:00AM-10:30AM and just keep going up and we have gap down Monday and get fill later on. Now it seems market top around 10:00AM-10:30AM and then just keep on going down and we have gap up monday, and now let's see if it gets fill like you say, rather quick…

    Also TNX has been going down every since 8:36AM… and is poking below last Friday's LOD already… TNX has not been correlating with the market much of late… but the big picture it seems still have some sort of correlation…

    Crude it seems is hovering around last Friday's LOD and not going anywhere (man I hope this $3+ gas can do down… is expensive! And we are suppose to be in recession?)

  • Iguanadon

    Click on the little chart symbol next to the SPZ9 and then click on the 5 min or 15 min and you can see the movement overnight.

    http://futuresource.quote.com/markets/market.js

  • springheel_jack

    Bounced off key support just under 1040.

    That support level is likely to define the next week or two.

    Either we break through it very quickly or we are very likely to be looking at more upside.

  • blues

    One sad thing is that DXY did pop above 77.1 and got all the way up to 77.26 but I guess 77.1 didn't hold on the back test… IF we can somehow pop above 77.1 again, it would be nice…

  • ckeltner

    Welcome back Mole, hope you enjoyed the time off. Now, if you don't mind can you leave again for about 2 weeks? Based on this past vacation and the drop that ensued, that should be enough to confirm P3 for us.

    Thanks!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    finally the reversal pattern, being Yom Kipper today, I expect with the light volume we chop around. :)

  • BaldEagle

    Nice site, Thanks.

    We all know who was buying at 3 am.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Please I am long the USD/JPY 2 lots :)

  • shortcover

    Another great chance to get in on the shorts…if you are so inclined…

  • dollar

    German CPI came out last night, basically flat, that may have helped.
    http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Site

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    what man doesn't! :)

  • Styrfart

    You have to excuse a stupid secular swede, why does this hollyday matter?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Light volume :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Trying to buy back my short puts on Spy, so I can be just long :)

  • Iguanadon

    It's a jewish holiday and a lot of the big boys on Wall Street are jewish so they aren't around to run things.

  • Carl V

    And I am long UUP !! (more than 2 can i say 😉

  • BaldEagle

    I guess the Christian interns trading are bullish today, huh?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    2 lots X 100,000 is quite some leverage. :)

  • Styrfart

    thx, ok! as a stupid swede, we don't have that in mind! :-)

  • blues

    ya, is always light volume day up up up and heavy volume day down down down…

  • springheel_jack

    EURUSD and GBPUSD not following the SPX up so far.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I can deal with that…:)

  • blues

    look at that long tail on 5 minutes SPY chart! But we need to get below LOD to have any sort of rerversal going here…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hopefully just a monday morning sluggish SPX :)

  • ds2

    Can someone confirm – Is Zero working? I still see Fri at the bottom of the Lite.

  • Iguanadon

    Wait til you see what happens on Arbor Day!

    just kidding 😉

  • springheel_jack

    Anyone getting any sign of life from the Zero today?

  • Styrfart

    ASG! = LoL

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Seems to be frozen again, contacting Mole now. :)

  • springheel_jack

    Nice to see that gap fill quickly. Heading in the wrong direction so far.

  • blues

    c'mon DXY, first important resistance to get through is 77…

  • Osso

    Dow 9755 resistance….???

  • Road_Kill

    GM ALL! Looks like the v=bulls are back with a vengeance this morning.

  • springheel_jack

    Anna,

    Could you mention that we just got a blank geronimo alert as well?

  • jr9876

    Anyone getting blank Geronimo emails ? Someone sleeping ?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Well everyone, I'm back from Philadelphia. Dan Sheridan's advanced options workshop on Friday was great. But Saturday's all-day on banking bulls and bears with the CNBC “Fast Money” guys plus big-name guests was even better. Black Swan Captial's Jack Crooks presentation on forex was especially riveting – trying to get a copy of that one to share with the dollar traders here. More on this to come.

    On the trip back home yesterday I FINALLY had the time to do the EW count on the full ES chart, including the overnight periods since I believe this is an international 23-hour by 5-day trade now. I was going to “borrow” a friend's Jing account to post this morning…but now I see Mole's chart from last night captures most of it.

    (I'd have the Blue bounce going a bit higher to maybe the 1070 SPX equivalent, while for Orange the 78.6% fib of Minute {iii} comes down a bit to nearer the cluster of fibs at 1100 SPX. No big difference – likely because of no big China rattling the overnights of late.)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Calling Mole now

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    $NQ_F short 1716.25

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    $NQ_F short 1716.25

  • Joe8888

    Morning all….1058 ish,, should be some Resistance here…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    will do! hang in there

  • shortcover

    in SDS…waiting for sub 50 for VXX…

  • TheMacroEconomist

    It appears that Zero / Zero Lite has also frozen. I'll email Mole on that when I get back to the other computer.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    working on it Mac

  • gmak

    ES pivots:
    R2: 1055.50
    R1: 1048.25
    Neutral: 1042.25
    S1: 1035
    S2: 1029

    SPX pivots
    R2: 1074.74 – around BIG YELLOW
    R1: 1062.76
    Neutral: 1054.31 – whre we are now and above VWAP (1052.90)
    S1: 1042.32
    S2: 1033.97

  • gmak

    Did Geronimo fire for anyone else? Didn't get an entry price.

  • dollar

    one more little push before adding to TZA

  • shortcover

    come on 1060…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    POST CALLED MOLE ABOUT GERONIMO AND ZERO, stay calm guys. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nice charting mate. Glad to see you didn't grow loft like all those other furry woodland creatures…

    Skål!

  • Styrfart

    To you all, once again thx for all the goodies you share with us newbies! I just closed my etf bull pos, with a profit of 19,6% gain! Spec thx to you annamall!

  • AudioTactics

    good morning – welcome back Mole!

    went long this morning on the open to play this breakout of the recent downward channel…

    Bought SPY at 104.88, sold at 105.60.

  • centerline

    Morning all. Hopped on some Oct SPY 105 calls this morning at 1047 right at open. Might flip them here soon this morning and most likely will bow out for the rest of the day – as I expect chop as well. Didn't have much time to prepare for this morning… so I owe a thank you to everyone who did. Spent much of the weekend remodeling my son's room into something more “mature.”

    Still holding long term SPY puts, UUP long, and some lottery ticket Nov BAC puts.

  • springheel_jack

    Got a blank email.

    I think Mole's advice when this happens is to enter the trade immediately if the price has not already moved a lot, with a target 2.5 above and a stop 8.5 below.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I just called him and he will be working on it. I am not taking any trades that are blank personally :)

  • EDC

    good morning Vietnam, err.. board.

  • Road_Kill

    Feels like Vietnam today.

  • bergs

    Well I guess my limb broke.

    updated chart with EWI alt count shown.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Geronimo working now

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    If you don't count after hours /ES trading, we have pegged 1.618 equality and have turned down. If you consider after hours which put in a new low, this would just be the a wave up in Minor 2.

    Skål!

  • Carl V

    no, no, I am not a strong hands you know 😉

  • Trader_Steve

    For thse who have neever been around City Hall or the Exchange in lower Manhattan, there are ALWAYS guys holding up bible saying “Repent…the end if near.”

    Steve

  • Bart7

    some data out that caused this last push up?

  • gmak

    You're kidding, right? heh.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    PPT back in force. :( I am adding more puts around 1062

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    this is wave [v] of iii of either i of 5 of C or of c of ii the next move should tell the tale

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Anyone else hop on the AGNC long I tossed out last week. Thing is screaming… up almost 4% so far….

    Skål!

  • BaldEagle

    Whoever is gapping this higher should be tarred feathered and hung.

  • dollar

    bought more TZA at 50% fib and R3

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    on our way to 1059-ish on the /es. then, I don't know which way. will have to wait and see and then ride whatever train leaves that station

  • Road_Kill

    Looks like this market is going traight up today…literally.

  • blues

    I guess end of month/quarter mark up is here! Gee… they just buy buy buy!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    by their eyelids Bald! :)

  • shortcover

    maybe they want 10k dow on by Wed.

  • centerline

    Hit my 1058-59 range, out on the SPY calls bought this morning. I am happy here, so booking profit and moving into observer mode. Of course, this means we continue to climb!

  • dollar

    asking more from SPY and QQQQ, 61.8 fib and R3

  • Road_Kill

    Funny that RIMM is still getting murdered.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Just a heads up guys there is NO VOLUME on this move….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I see that Road, good a.m.

  • Road_Kill

    I dont think volume matters anymore.

  • Offtimer

    The markets see the 3.5 trillion dollars sitting in money market brokerage accounts and want it.

  • Road_Kill

    Hey anna good am to you too.

  • BaldEagle

    Sick of it, really am.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    /dx just cracked 77, again

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    me too Bald, I would like to cook some bull burgers! LOL

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    WE've had a 50% retracement of the entire move down from last week so far on the SPX…..approaching 50% on the dow…..

  • Road_Kill

    What and that took a whole 30 minutes to do. Maybe we close that 1100 gap today?

  • Trader_Steve

    To my knowledge, there is NO definitive answer as to which is the first move. We argued it every year. Is it buy Rosh Hashanna, or sell it? If Cashin says he knows, I think he's wrong. If anyone wants to research it, be my guest.

    Steve

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    SPY on the dailies has allot of air above if the bulls decide to fill. ARRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHH

  • Nightwind

    DX approaching lower support line

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Watching GMCR, long suggested yesterday. Up 5% now, all time highs. Waiting for a real b/o!

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I have the 109 area on spy

  • Road_Kill

    ES is wrestling with R2 here.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    watching that like a hawk. I've admitted to being a currency trader now until the inverse de-link takes place. cheers

  • Joe8888

    50% pullback is 1061, another resistance level.

  • blues

    well, look like a Sept is oging to be 7th consecutive positive close month…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Wow! What a great start for the week! I love it when I can do a day's work in 30 minutes. Now that I've taken profits, I will take the rest of the day off.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    If you cook Bull burgers, you will be having Squirrel melts as an appetizer!!!

  • BaldEagle

    You can't beat a burger with some tomato and a slice of cheese, with a cold beer.

    There will be so much ground bull to have you'll need to get a second freezer.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Sorry had the Dow and SPX twisted…….50% already on dow………

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    question is ….can the quarter end ramp hold or while people start to try and lock profits in so they're not holding the ball……

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Anyone else seeing this as a real nice (complete) zig zag?

    http://screencast.com/t/VSF2aTUtn9uh

    Skål!

  • Road_Kill

    Amazing, not even the slightest retrace of this vertical move.

  • ACJ

    sweet bear trap

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    watching that like a hawk. I've admitted to being a currency trader now until the inverse de-link takes place. cheers

  • dollar

    You are looking for it to break last week's highs?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    LOL hahaha !

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    LOL hahaha !

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I had that last night Bald, hmmmmm :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Sorry mate, I guess time answered your question. My internet was dying. Back now though.

    Skal!

  • innatedc

    Actually could end up being a bull trap…see if 10:30 reversal comes in….sitting on hands

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I think this may be turning here shortly for at least some retracement :)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i hope my picture in the ad above isn't distracting the ladies from their trading today

  • Styrfart

    Your target for retracement?

  • Road_Kill

    lol not just the ladies tiger.

  • innatedc

    Guys watch 30 yr futs closing in on resistance…breakthrough, consolidation or breakdown?

  • gmak

    Thanks.
    but I'm never sure what the entry price is given the potential for delay on the SMS side of things.

    ________________________________

  • innatedc

    I agree anna, internals are hinting it….

  • insite

    biggest up moves on lowest vol days of late…..

  • blues

    what's new?

  • Osso

    added SPXU…..45

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yep, there is NO VOLUME so I am not concerned and I mean nada! :)

  • springheel_jack

    We are just below key resistance at 1059 – 1061 here.

    If we punch through past 1061 the chance that we are in a wave 5 up that may take us to 1100 or more rises very considerably.

    If wave 5 finished last week and we are in a wave ii up, then we may be about to start wave iii down.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Do't know if anyone noticed that volumes picked up since the indices peaked……bit of a churn going on ?

  • harveydent

    morning everyone.
    is anyone looking at RIMM for a buy? had a nice time with puts (anna!) but now it seems like a good Call play maybe around 67, ride it up to low 70's….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Morning Inna! appears to be cooked :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    1052 Please! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    WHAT WHERE???? LOL oh you mean the skinny guy with the long beard (NOT) hahahah

  • moneyfarm

    Watching DRQ, ILMN for potential breakouts. Vol light so far. Long GMCR.

  • Road_Kill

    Well that was a nice 1 point retrace on the ES

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am staying clear for now Harvey, I think it could see low 60's or even lower

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am staying clear for now Harvey, I think it could see low 60's or even lower

  • Styrfart

    seems you will get that, if we hit 1052, i will try to load etf bull one more time! But doesn't feel to good to go to bed with them

  • dollar

    New companies will be crucial to the strength of any economic recovery. Businesses in their first 90 days of life accounted for 14% of hiring in the U.S. between 1993 and 2008, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    But this recession is taking a particularly heavy toll on business creation, as sources of small-business funding dry up and would-be entrepreneurs become more risk-averse. When entrepreneurs do launch businesses, they are hiring fewer employees on average. The trends threaten to damp growth in jobs and economic output for years.

    Company formation typically dips slightly in recessions, says Brian Headd, a Small Business Administration economist. Earlier this decade, business starts — including new businesses and units of existing businesses — fell 9% between the third quarter of 2000 and the first quarter of 2003, the BLS says.

    This time, the decline has been steeper. Business starts fell 14% from the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008; the 187,000 businesses launched in that quarter were the fewest in a quarter since 1995. The number ticked up slightly in the fourth quarter, the latest data available. But those new establishments created only 794,000 jobs, the fewest since the government began tracking the data in 1993.

  • Road_Kill

    I took your advice and got the heck out at 70 for a small loss. Thanks anna.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    that what I mentioned last night we could see 1122 area rather soon, but if so I am shorting the hell out of it! :)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole, is 23.6% fib/$1,061.04 your line in the sand to disconfirm blue/confirm orange?

  • insite

    actually looks like volume dropped off a bit following the highs. i think we are just consolidating before we move up some more.

  • springheel_jack

    True story Anna.

    I would love to be able to short 1121. :-)

  • Joe8888

    Update on SPY Chart,,,,@ reisitance here…

  • fuw

    Yeah, TRIN is trending up as well, and euro/usd seems to be topping out the most recent move up.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    added some MA Nov puts

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Do you think we've had the full 5 waves on the C ?

  • Bart7

    stockcharts.com working again…

  • skynard

    Looks like blow-off top. 1100 then tank.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    yea it is! this move up is an easy one for the bulls as there is no volume. We shall prevail!! :)

  • innatedc

    This is NOT a blow off top…..there would be much more acceleration and participation…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Rich now on the 30 min spx we are so overbought.

  • Offtimer

    Maybe we will close down an equal amount at the close 120 points. Madness everything is up.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    no worries…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Im holding on to my Nov 80 puts which have done nicely so far. If market breaks after some retracement, RIMM is going down hard with it, considering its down today even though market is up.

  • springheel_jack

    Is the zero still down for everyone else?

    I've tried all the usual tricks to update the image. No joy though.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    yes jack, I also contacted Eric, I guess they are working on it, I have done everything I can…to get to them quickly. :)

  • fusiyichipegasus

    Looks like we're still in P2…sorry bears

  • springheel_jack

    Thanks Anna.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Welcome Ok NOW WE ARE OVERBOUGHT ON 30 MIN.

  • EDC

    1062/3 to add puts

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Just sayin EDC :)

  • dollar

    Bought QID here

  • springheel_jack

    Great news if we're still in P2. we can go long for wave 5 up to the 1099 / 1121 level & then short from there.

    That isa nice scenario.

  • Me_XMan

    The End Is Near! WTF!!!

  • Road_Kill

    For the bears it seems.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    That what I have been saying too Jack, and more room to fall. :)

  • Bart7

    what's the last day for window dressing buying? Somebody said it's a day or two before end of month on Wednesday

  • fusiyichipegasus

    Definitely agree. 1121 would be sa-weeeeeeeet.

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    indeed it is
    :)

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    id say tuesday afternoon

  • blues

    All bears are running for the hills! Man dip buyer is like they just want to own equity or something before the end of the world comes… DXY is still above Friday's close and yet equity is doing a moon shoot! TNX is still down near LOD and OIL is also still near Friday's low range… so what's pushing the market up on this low volume… ? Financial and Re?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Me three!

  • Osso

    GLD 97.80 resistance…??

  • Keirsten

    tomorrow

  • rhae

    SPY 60m… I think this is what many were looking out for today… Long term players should not be to concerned, it looks like SPY weekly rolled over last week for the start of a nice TD wave 4 down, maybe a couple of months? 950 looks about right, we shall see

    http://screencast.com/t/sG5iYQJMCoR

  • AudioTactics

    Selling SPY here.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I did too,

  • ds2

    My first day as a sub and it's down…

  • Me_XMan

    If closing above 1064 in next couple days then 1100 will get hit for sure 100%.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Exactly! Still being in P2 is the best scenario for smart bears.

  • BaldEagle

    Goldman down…Interesting

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Sorry I know, they must be working on it. hang in there. :)

  • Osso

    watch XOM…..seems weak….

  • EDC

    sitting on hands

  • dollar

    So far, a little early on the IWM, just right on the Q's, don't know if SPY going to make it to where I'd like at R3

  • Offtimer

    Now its time for a bull trap!

  • ds2

    Hey, speaking of the ZERO. I see a lot in the daily wraps about how it performed that day – but that is for the Lite. How has the regular zero been performing for swing trades?

  • Styrfart

    pls bring it on! :-)

  • AS2009

    1060.73 is 200 MA on the 10 min … we are currently consolidating under it … be careful with the shorts …

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I'd really love to see a 1069 as a true wave 5 failling to go beyond w3….

    it would fit nicely as the end of this wave up (hint 741, 943

  • fuw

    I agree, and my gut feeling is that this is a bullshit move. The dollar is not confirming and participation is low.

  • dollar

    Is that the point, to sweep away the bears giddy from last week?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I concur Fuw! :)

  • dollar

    Agreed – Holiday illusion

  • Bart7

    could be but the portfolio painters could hold it up a bit longer into tomorrow..

  • BaldEagle

    I would love to see this gain wiped off the board and end up down 2% :)

  • fuw

    However, to paraphrase a good movie, I just want to make it clear that over the last couple of months I've come to the conclusion that my gut has shit for brains.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    If we're in P3, then there's no time like the present wave ii has done all a wave ii can do, if we go sideways or further up then its wave 5 of C up

  • fusiyichipegasus

    I don't get how a wave (ii) of P3 or a wave circle v would be a bullshit move???

  • bananaben

    Go home bears. I have the market under control and it's only going up from here! Buy, buy, buy!!!

  • springheel_jack

    Very much so.

  • Nightwind

    If the bears go home…..the rally ends.

  • dollar

    Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: Texas factory activity shows first signs of bottoming out as production index was close to zero (nearly equal increases and decreases). Shipments and new orders turn positive. Other indexes improved but remained negative.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hah there you go Banana! LOL

  • EDC

    alpha
    can you please post a link to your latest spx chart?

  • springheel_jack

    if USD continues to stand firm here, this wave 5 up may not impress & may possibly not even make a new high.

  • rhae

    one step at a time, next fib bounce on SPY .618 106.40 at .50 now, if it does not go down, it will go up…. must be another Confucious saying.?..

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    me too me too! LOL

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    everyone's has lately Fuw! LOL

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning ratz. 3% short position with a stop at 1072.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey gang who is the Banana Ben?? Is he Ned???

  • Bart7

    probably Ben Bananake

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol isn't the market wonderful? Amazing how the tone of everything changes, last week bear blogs triumphant, bull blogs full of sorrow. Today an exact reversal.

    I feel like baling on some of my short positions, which almost certainly means a new leg down is about to occur lol :)

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and as i mentioned a couple of minutes ago, 1069 w5 would be sweet

  • springheel_jack

    Very possible unless USD starts to slide.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I know it's a bit against the grain, but could you point some of the less acephalitic bull blogs (just to see how the other half… other 99% think)?

  • springheel_jack

    Back up now.

  • springheel_jack

    I think we consolidate here or a bit lower for a while.

  • Styrfart

    How ‘awful’ Swedish socialism can boost business
    http://www.swedishwire.com/opinion/1031-how-awf

    I hope you don't try it! local income tax + heathcare tax 30%, state tax 20% above bracket , 20% VAT, 30% profit tax, estate tax and on and on and on!

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    I feel the same way. I had taken some profits on Friday at the mid day low – never feel good taking profits on short positions but glad I did. Now I wish I had closed out more.

    In terms of trading, I have to admit, I am close to calling it quits for a few weeks, maybe even a month (or till year end) – but I am afraid to miss the drop – probably one of the WORST reasons to continue trading this market. After 7 consecutive monthly highs – it would be wrong to go long (eventhough its working and has been working).

    If we break 1067 SPX, I think I am out all together for a few weeks.

  • EDC

    MMF sideline cash argument.
    from Barry
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/the-myth-o

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I realy would like a 1069, it would be 1,618 of the november to january pullback

  • CorporalCarrot

    I just know I should add more short here, but I'm afraid I don't have the cohones. If this sells off later, I'm going to kick myself :-)

  • BaldEagle

    Vicks Vaporub, while initially bludgeoned, is slowly making a comeback

  • Bart7

    I remember the cash on the sidelines bs is what kept a lot of folks in the market at the 2000 top…

  • Road_Kill

    We havent had a sngle red candle on the 15 minute and still going.

  • AudioTactics

    Hey Anna – I'm working a very tight stop, this looks like a trend day…

  • CorporalCarrot

    The Dow has spent 30 minutes now in a 15 point range, the longest all day. I think a break to one side or the other is coming.

  • Osso

    Qs 42.69…resistance…

  • ckeltner

    Bulls have talked about that holy grail since the day the stock market opened

  • gmak

    EUR is getting smacked right now, but ES is hardly moving. More disconnect – but which is the tail and which is the dog.

  • springheel_jack

    Unless we see EURUSD come out of the current dive down, we will be seeing one shortly IMO.

  • standard_and_poor

    Forgot to mention – short from 1070 with a 1072 stop.

  • EDC

    well what do ya know… didn't even bother to look after 0600 good eye.

  • gmak

    Do I have a data freeze on SPX /ES? I have ES at 1056

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am with you Audio! :)

  • Road_Kill

    The dollar vs euro vs stock market corraltion seems to be off. Has something changed here. Dollar going up, euro going nowhere, market going balistic.

  • john_matrix

    we'll be making a higher high, this is the final wave v dont think we will get above 1111 though

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahahah LOL

  • fuw

    I was just thinking the same thing. Something has to give.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    loaded full short pos nq 1720avg – did expect move up, not that vicious thou
    http://screencast.com/t/qZPaYqUHf

  • gmak

    Just saw it move a touch. Guess the market is frozen for some reason. Anyone in the pits?

  • gmak

    Just saw it move a touch. Guess the market is frozen for some reason. Anyone in the pits?

  • dollar

    I see the dollar trending down since 12:30 AM to around 76.77, an area of some congestion…

  • standard_and_poor

    When the correction arrives it will be just that and we'll probably not see more than a 10% drop. I'm shorting but not going crazy until proof is in – so far I haven't
    seen any hint of an upcoming P3.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    $Trin rising back up and the full sTochs are way overbought, shouldn't be long for a pullback

  • ACJ

    wow, the 50% fib didn't last long

  • Road_Kill

    They can just float it here and correct through time.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    EVERYONE Zero is not working….look at the divergence on Zero light!!

  • AudioTactics

    I covered my short for now…

    No follow thru on the downside, trend day conditions.

  • Bart7

    do you watch the 60 period stochastics on the 30 or 60 minute charts? signaled overbought at the 1080 top, but not now…

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    Aussie hanging tough…. this is the most OB currency out there. When she finally goes… its over

  • MrBF

    Sold my spy oct calls i picked up at the close on friday. There is a lot of resistance between 1060-1063. I would go short here with a tight stop but have to step out for a couple of hours. Dont tank it too far while im gone. 😉

  • dullmind

    Did you mean “Zero is working…look at the divergence on Zero light!!” ?

    Yes I see it. Waiting for things to resolve before making any trades.

  • AudioTactics

    plus $ bid is unconvincing.

  • omelette

    There's a large divergence starting from the initial move up on friday too…

  • gmak

    Guess I'll answer my own question. Thanks for nothing.

    ES is the dog today, and EUR is the tail – it seems.

  • dollar

    just one more little push up on the spy and i'll be finished adding shorts

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    30 I have a reading 96.27

  • Road_Kill

    I imagine we should get a pullback into R1 which be about 1048 /ES. Thats about where VWAP is right now. This is of course if the market still has an ounce of rationality behind it.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    This continues to track 1987… which suggest marginal new highs… then the fun starts. Just saying.

    We are coming up on the 38.2% of the time retrace on the most recent wave down… and it is OB short term. It will be interesting to see what comes after this run up!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am comfortably loaded up right here and will add if we push higher which I don't believe today we will ::)))

  • Bart7

    I'm using 60, 3, 3 at 42 right now…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    3 3 ?

  • Bart7

    I'm using 60, 3, 3 on a 30 minute chart is at 42 right now…

  • dollar

    Monty Python: just one more little mint…

  • fuw

    Günther right?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if dollar goes up and equity crashes I see uncle berna as the black night in the quest for the holy grail “come yer you bears, I'll bite your fur off~!”

  • skynard

    Crude is making a move.

  • dollar

    Dollar popping now

  • fuw

    Yes speculative and news driven, but remember that the European markets might be on a little sugar high from the German elections. A reelection of the sitting government, now in a majority position, is most often seem as a good thing by the markets.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Come on greenback! let's rock :)

  • dollar

    German CPI was flat last night too…

  • Styrfart

    DAX at 2,43% about +1% on the rest of us! pls no more!

  • Me_XMan

    The latest sideline cash report: American investors have $3.5T in cash – equal to 73% of the S&P 500's net assets – even after reducing money-market accounts by 11%, according to a new study. At the peak of the bull market in 2007, the figure was 62% of S&P assets

  • CorporalCarrot

    I know I should be shorting this crap right here. Repeat after me;

    You must pull the trigger
    You must pull the trigger
    You must pull the trigger

  • dollar

    I believe fund flows show they're putting it into bond funds if they do anything at all…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    looks like one last pop before retracing some. :_)

  • ACJ

    SICK

  • Road_Kill

    Come on man just do it, all the cool kids are doing it too.

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol lucky i didn't :)

  • Road_Kill

    I must say I appreciate your optimism anna.

  • dollar

    Dollar fell away from the 8 hr ma on the 1 min, spy getting it's pop now

  • CorporalCarrot

    If the DOW doesn't get back under 9,800 soon I'm outta here.

  • gmak

    Here is why this AM's chicago activity index is important. FWIW, the value was -0.9 vs revised prior of -0.36

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/chica

  • omelette
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Glad I told Harvey earlier not to go long RIMM just yet. :)

  • insite

    OMG, the ding dong song. long live gunther! tra la la.

  • Road_Kill

    So when do we get a lock limit up on this market exactly?

  • Road_Kill

    Yeah they are showing no mercy to that stock.

  • insite

    lock limit UP?!?!?! hahahahaha. that was funny.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    nice and overbought, now sell this thing off!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Brutal…Apple is taking their market share, I would so love to short apple, for a swing trade, but it has such a large short position that you can get smoked really fast. Better off somewhere else :)

  • harveydent

    and i thank you for that :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Been saying same Alpha! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    and you're welcome :)

  • sela84

    guys there is a new post from Herrn Mole

  • Road_Kill

    I wish I could short Apple and hold until the day they announce Steve Jobs is eaving or worse… Kinda evil tinking about making money at the expense of the poor guy.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahahah you're on the right site then! :)

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Is this going up to 1065 now ?!!!

  • Road_Kill

    lol yes I do suppose it is EVIL…lol

  • neophyte

    looking for 1060. It is my hope.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/neophyte/folder

  • Road_Kill

    Looks like we ar egoing to explore ever new levels of overboughtedness today.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    just bot some Oct SPY 103 puts, will add more if SPX touches 1065

  • gmak

    The 1062.9ish pivot on SPX is holding for now…

  • harveydent

    cool. bought some 105's few minutes ago

  • gmak

    Somebody just torpedoed EUR. Down almost 40 bps in 3 seconds.

  • Bart7

    we're outa the blue and into the orange according to mole's chart, or am I reading that wrong?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah, something tells me that in the case of a 10% rally that they would leave the market open… Hmmmm… Nice and fair.

    Skal!

  • bshah

    did anyone notice the new post ?

  • fuw

    He is truly the peak of Swedish culture. It starts and ends with Günther and Bergman.

  • springheel_jack

    If we are going to have a bullish week, one of the best short opportunities likely to come our way IMO will be a new chance to short GBPUSD.

    There is a beautiful H&S on GBPUSD with the neckline at 1.61 and the top of the head at 1.71. It indicates therefore to 1.51 and this decline has the strong backing of the Bank of England, where the head has made it explicitly clear that he welcomes a weaker GBP & implied that if he doesn't get one in the normal course of events, he will act to ensure that he does.

    GBPUSD wen't through the neckline last week at 1.61, bottomed slightly under 1.58 last night, and if equities have a strong week, then is likely to rise from 1.5908 currently to re-test the neckline at 1.61.

    When it does that, it will be a very attractive short IMO & i will definitely be shorting it.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Not I. Thanks mate.

    Skal!

  • Carl V

    The strong divergence between SPY and EURUSD is telling us something: who will win this? The correlation will come back either with a higher EUR or…

  • rhae

    SPY vrs. dollar 1m… I need a better program, lol can't get the snaps to line up exactly
    just playing
    http://screencast.com/t/3HjZXTyK

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Is the zero still down for everyone else?

    I've tried all the usual tricks to update the image. No joy though.

  • fusiyichipegasus

    Looks like we're still in P2…sorry bears

  • EDC

    1062/3 to add puts

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Just sayin EDC :)

  • dollar

    Bought QID here

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Great news if we're still in P2. we can go long for wave 5 up to the 1099 / 1121 level & then short from there.

    That is a nice scenario.

  • Me_XMan

    The End Is Near! WTF!!!

  • Road_Kill

    For the bears it seems.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    That what I have been saying too Jack, and more room to fall. :)

  • Bart7

    what's the last day for window dressing buying? Somebody said it's a actually a day or two before end of month on Wednesday

  • fusiyichipegasus

    Definitely agree. 1121 would be sa-weeeeeeeet.

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    indeed it is
    :)

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    id say tuesday afternoon

  • blues

    All bears are running for the hills! Man dip buyer is like they just want to own equity or something before the end of the world comes… DXY is still above Friday's close and yet equity is doing a moon shoot! TNX is still down near LOD and OIL is also still near Friday's low range… so what's pushing the market up on this low volume… ? Financial and Re?

  • Osso

    GLD 97.80 resistance…??

  • Keirsten

    tomorrow

  • rhae

    SPY 60m… I think this is what many were looking out for today… Long term players should not be to concerned, it looks like SPY weekly rolled over last week for the start of a nice TD wave 4 down, maybe a couple of months? 950 looks about right, we shall see

    http://screencast.com/t/sG5iYQJMCoR

  • AudioTactics

    Selling SPY here.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I did too,

  • ds2

    My first day as a sub and it's down…

  • Me_XMan

    If closing above 1064 in next couple days then 1100 will get hit for sure 100%.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Exactly! Still being in P2 is the best scenario for smart bears.

  • DesertEagle

    Goldman down…Interesting

  • Osso

    watch XOM…..seems weak….

  • EDC

    sitting on hands

  • dollar

    So far, a little early on the IWM, just right on the Q's, don't know if SPY going to make it to where I'd like at R3

  • ds2

    Hey, speaking of the ZERO. I see a lot in the daily wraps about how it performed that day – but that is for the Lite. How has the regular zero been performing for swing trades?

  • AS2009

    1060.73 is 200 MA on the 10 min … we are currently consolidating under it … be careful with the shorts …

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I'd really love to see a 1069 as a true wave 5 failling to go beyond w3….

    it would fit nicely as the end of this wave up (hint 741, 943

  • fuw

    I agree, and my gut feeling is that this is a bullshit move. The dollar is not confirming and participation is low.

  • dollar

    Is that the point, to sweep away the bears giddy from last week?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I concur Fuw! :)

  • dollar

    Agreed – Holiday illusion

  • Bart7

    could be but the portfolio painters could hold it up a bit longer into tomorrow..

  • DesertEagle

    I would love to see this gain wiped off the board and end up down 2% :)

  • fuw

    However, to paraphrase a good movie, I just want to make it clear that over the last couple of months I've come to the conclusion that my gut has shit for brains.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    If we're in P3, then there's no time like the present wave ii has done all a wave ii can do, if we go sideways or further up then its wave 5 of C up

  • fusiyichipegasus

    I don't get how a wave (ii) of P3 or a wave circle v would be a bullshit move???

  • bananaben

    Go home bears. I have the market under control and it's only going up from here! Buy, buy, buy!!!

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Very much so.

  • Nightwind

    If the bears go home…..the rally ends.

  • dollar

    Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: Texas factory activity shows first signs of bottoming out as production index was close to zero (nearly equal increases and decreases). Shipments and new orders turn positive. Other indexes improved but remained negative.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hah there you go Banana! LOL

  • EDC

    alpha
    can you please post a link to your latest spx chart?

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    if USD continues to stand firm here, this wave 5 up may not impress & may possibly not even make a new high.

  • rhae

    one step at a time, next fib bounce on SPY .618 106.40 at .50 now, if it does not go down, it will go up…. must be another Confucious saying.?..

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    me too me too! LOL

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    everyone's has lately Fuw! LOL

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning ratz. 3% short position with a stop at 1072.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hey gang who is the Banana Ben?? Is he Ned???

  • Bart7

    Ben Bananake?

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol isn't the market wonderful? Amazing how the tone of everything changes, last week bear blogs triumphant, bull blogs full of sorrow. Today an exact reversal.

    I feel like baling on some of my short positions, which almost certainly means a new leg down is about to occur lol :)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and as i mentioned a couple of minutes ago, 1069 w5 would be sweet

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Very possible unless USD starts to slide.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I know it's a bit against the grain, but could you point some of the less acephalitic bull blogs (just to see how the other half… other 99% think)?

  • Styrfart

    How ‘awful’ Swedish socialism can boost business
    http://www.swedishwire.com/opinion/1031-how-awf

    I hope you don't try it! local income tax + heathcare tax 30%, state tax 20% above bracket , 20% VAT, 30% profit tax, estate tax and on and on and on!

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    I feel the same way. I had taken some profits on Friday at the mid day low – never feel good taking profits on short positions but glad I did. Now I wish I had closed out more.

    In terms of trading, I have to admit, I am close to calling it quits for a few weeks, maybe even a month (or till year end) – but I am afraid to miss the drop – probably one of the WORST reasons to continue trading this market. After 7 consecutive monthly highs – it would be wrong to go long (eventhough its working and has been working).

    If we break 1067 SPX, I think I am out all together for a few weeks.

  • EDC

    MMF sideline cash argument.
    from Barry
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/the-myth-o

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I realy would like a 1069, it would be 1,618 of the november to january pullback

  • CorporalCarrot

    I just know I should add more short here, but I'm afraid I don't have the cohones. If this sells off later, I'm going to kick myself :-)

  • DesertEagle

    Vicks Vaporub, while initially bludgeoned, is slowly making a comeback

  • Bart7

    I remember the cash on the sidelines bs is what kept a lot of folks in the market at the 2000 top…

  • Road_Kill

    We havent had a sngle red candle on the 15 minute and still going.

  • AudioTactics

    Hey Anna – I'm working a very tight stop, this looks like a trend day…

  • CorporalCarrot

    The Dow has spent 30 minutes now in a 15 point range, the longest all day. I think a break to one side or the other is coming.

  • Osso

    Qs 42.69…resistance…

  • ckeltner

    Bulls have talked about that holy grail since the day the stock market opened

  • gmak

    EUR is getting smacked right now, but ES is hardly moving. More disconnect – but which is the tail and which is the dog.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Unless we see EURUSD come out of the current dive down, we will be seeing one shortly IMO.

  • standard_and_poor

    Forgot to mention – short from 1070 with a 1072 stop.

  • EDC

    well what do ya know… didn't even bother to look after 0600 good eye.

  • gmak

    Do I have a data freeze on SPX /ES? I have ES at 1056

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am with you Audio! :)

  • Road_Kill

    The dollar vs euro vs stock market corraltion seems to be off. Has something changed here. Dollar going up, euro going nowhere, market going balistic.

  • john_matrix

    we'll be making a higher high, this is the final wave v dont think we will get above 1111 though

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahahah LOL

  • fuw

    I was just thinking the same thing. Something has to give.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    loaded full short pos nq 1720avg – did expect move up, not that vicious thou
    http://screencast.com/t/qZPaYqUHf

  • gmak

    Just saw it move a touch. Guess the market is frozen for some reason. Anyone in the pits?

  • dollar

    I see the dollar trending down since 12:30 AM to around 76.77, an area of some congestion…

  • standard_and_poor

    When the correction arrives it will be just that and we'll probably not see more than a 10% drop. I'm shorting but not going crazy until proof is in – so far I haven't
    seen any hint of an upcoming P3.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    $Trin rising back up and the full sTochs are way overbought, shouldn't be long for a pullback

  • ACJ

    wow, the 50% fib didn't last long

  • Road_Kill

    They can just float it here and correct through time.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    EVERYONE Zero is now working….look at the divergence on Zero light!!

  • AudioTactics

    I covered my short for now…

    No follow thru on the downside, trend day conditions.

  • Bart7

    do you watch the 60 period stochastics on the 30 or 60 minute charts? signaled overbought at the 1080 top, but not now…

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    Aussie hanging tough…. this is the most OB currency out there. When she finally goes… its over

  • MrBF

    Sold my spy oct calls i picked up at the close on friday. There is a lot of resistance between 1060-1063. I would go short here with a tight stop but have to step out for a couple of hours. Dont tank it too far while im gone. 😉

  • dullmind

    Did you mean “Zero is working…look at the divergence on Zero light!!” ?

    Yes I see it. Waiting for things to resolve before making any trades.

  • AudioTactics

    plus $ bid is unconvincing.

  • omelette

    There's a larger divergence starting from the initial move up on friday too…

  • gmak

    Guess I'll answer my own question. Thanks for nothing.

    ES is the dog today, and EUR is the tail – it seems.

  • dollar

    just one more little push up on the spy and i'll be finished adding shorts

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    30 I have a reading 96.27 Overbought

  • Road_Kill

    I imagine we should get a pullback into R1 which be about 1048 /ES. Thats about where VWAP is right now. This is of course if the market still has an ounce of rationality behind it.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    This continues to track 1987… which suggest marginal new highs… then the fun starts. Just saying.

    We are coming up on the 38.2% of the time retrace on the most recent wave down… and it is OB short term. It will be interesting to see what comes after this run up!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am comfortably loaded up right here and will add if we push higher which I don't believe today we will ::)))

  • Bart7

    I'm using 60, 3, 3 at 42 right now…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    3 3 ? I use 80 20 10 10

  • Bart7

    60, 3, 3 stochastic on a 30 minute chart is at 42 right now…

  • dollar

    Monty Python: just one more little mint…

  • fuw

    Günther right?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if dollar goes up and equity crashes I see uncle berna as the black night in the quest for the holy grail “come yer you bears, I'll bite your fur off~!”

  • skynard

    Crude is making a move.

  • dollar

    Dollar popping now

  • fuw

    Yes speculative and news driven, but remember that the European markets might be on a little sugar high from the German elections. A reelection of the sitting government, now in a majority position, is most often seem as a good thing by the markets.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Come on greenback! let's rock :)

  • dollar

    German CPI was flat last night too…

  • Styrfart

    DAX at 2,43% about +1% on the rest of us! pls no more!
    Today 09:30am EST/01:30pm GMT
    *(GE) GERMAN SEPT PRELIM CPI M/M: -0.4% V -0.2%E; Y/Y:-0.3 % V -0.1%E – No revisions

    #
    Today 11:06am EST/03:06pm GMT
    (EU) ECB's Trichet: Committed to price stability to prevent inflation from pushing up market rates – Q&A – ECB will not allow its extraordinary measures to feed into inflation. – Low demand is the more…
    #
    Today 10:29am EST/02:29pm GMT
    *SEPT DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION: -0.5% v -9.7% prior; BUSINESS ACTIVITY -6.4% v -9.1% prior – business activity index improves for the seventh month in a row.

  • Me_XMan

    The latest sideline cash report: American investors have $3.5T in cash – equal to 73% of the S&P 500's net assets – even after reducing money-market accounts by 11%, according to a new study. At the peak of the bull market in 2007, the figure was 62% of S&P assets

  • CorporalCarrot

    I know I should be shorting this crap right here. Repeat after me;

    You must pull the trigger
    You must pull the trigger
    You must pull the trigger

  • dollar

    I believe fund flows show they're putting it into bond funds if they do anything at all…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    looks like one last pop before retracing some. :_)

  • ACJ

    SICK

  • Road_Kill

    Come on man just do it, all the cool kids are doing it too.

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol lucky i didn't :)

  • Road_Kill

    I must say I appreciate your optimism anna.

  • dollar

    Dollar fell away from the 8 hr ma on the 1 min, spy getting it's pop now

  • CorporalCarrot

    If the DOW doesn't get back under 9,800 soon I'm outta here.

  • gmak

    Here is why this AM's chicago activity index is important. FWIW, the value was -0.9 vs revised prior of -0.56

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/chica

  • omelette
  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Glad I told Harvey earlier not to go long RIMM just yet. :)

  • insite

    OMG, the ding dong song. long live gunther! tra la la.

  • Road_Kill

    So when do we get a lock limit up on this market exactly?

  • Road_Kill

    Yeah they are showing no mercy to that stock.

  • insite

    lock limit UP?!?!?! hahahahaha. that was funny.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    nice and overbought, now sell this thing off!, but sure looks like it has 1065 in mind

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Brutal…Apple is taking their market share, I would so love to short apple, for a swing trade, but it has such a large short position that you can get smoked really fast. Better off somewhere else :)

  • harveydent

    and i thank you for that :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Been saying same Alpha! :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    and you're welcome :)

  • sela84

    guys there is a new post from Herrn Mole

  • Road_Kill

    I wish I could short Apple and hold until the day they announce Steve Jobs is eaving or worse… Kinda evil tinking about making money at the expense of the poor guy.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahahah you're on the right site then! :)

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Is this going up to 1065 now ?!!!

  • Road_Kill

    lol yes I do suppose it is EVIL…lol

  • neophyte

    looking for 1060. It is my hope.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/neophyte/folder

  • Road_Kill

    Looks like we are going to explore ever new levels of overboughtedness today.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    just bot some Oct SPY 103 puts, will add more if SPX touches 1065

  • gmak

    The 1062.9ish pivot on SPX is holding for now…

  • harveydent

    cool. bought some 105's few minutes ago

  • gmak

    Somebody just torpedoed EUR. Down almost 40 bps in 3 seconds.

    SPX didn't even blink.

  • Bart7

    we're outa the blue and into the orange according to mole's chart, (suggesting move higher) or am I reading that wrong?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah, something tells me that in the case of a 10% rally that they would leave the market open… Hmmmm… Nice and fair.

    Skal!

  • bshah

    did anyone notice the new post ?

  • fuw

    He is truly the peak of Swedish culture. It starts and ends with Günther and Bergman.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    If we are going to have a bullish week, one of the best short opportunities likely to come our way IMO will be a new chance to short GBPUSD.

    There is a beautiful H&S on GBPUSD with the neckline at 1.61 and the top of the head at 1.71. It indicates therefore to 1.51 and this decline has the strong backing of the Bank of England, where the head has made it explicitly clear that he welcomes a weaker GBP & implied that if he doesn't get one in the normal course of events, he will act to ensure that he does.

    GBPUSD wen't through the neckline last week at 1.61, bottomed slightly under 1.58 last night, and if equities have a strong week, then is likely to rise from 1.5908 currently to re-test the neckline at 1.61.

    When it does that, it will be a very attractive short IMO & i will definitely be shorting it.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Not I. Thanks mate.

    Skal!

  • Carl V

    The strong divergence between SPY and EURUSD is telling us something: who will win this? The correlation will come back either with a higher EUR or…

  • rhae

    SPY vrs. dollar 1m… I need a better program, lol can't get the snaps to line up exactly
    just playing
    http://screencast.com/t/3HjZXTyK