The Long Con
As you can imagine I wanted to wait out Draghi’s announcement before putting up a post but that didn’t leave me with much time before the bell. So here we go in no particular order:
Equities still in whipsaw mode but I’m actually starting to give the bears more credence here. Neither side has been able to make much of a dent but let’s not forget that 1) the onus is on the bulls to continue the trend and 2) there are really no bears left. In a late bull trend downside corrections are usually generated by a lack of bulls as opposed to being caused by strong selling pressure. Which is why we have seen the tape plot extended tops followed by a quick fall to the next support zone.
Bottom line: The bulls need to push this turd back above 1997 – if we close the week below it tomorrow then there may be a price to be paid next week.
Bonds are on the way now – my new target area is 123’295ish. Glad I flipped that initial long to a short after being stopped out. A lack of directional bias does have its rewards 😉
Cotton is accelerating higher and I’m moving my stop to the 2R mark. Very happy camper because I think we may have a runner here. Current target near 76 – if we touch that I may just be able to afford a turkey for Christmas!
The cocoa campaign also back on track and we may have another runner here as well. Target – well, who cares – there’s nothing but air below. I have to say – the fun has been in futures lately!
Coffee is looking great today – inside day candle right on top of a very tested 100-day SMA. I’m taking either breach it’ll throw my way tomorrow/tonight.
EUR/USD – may attempt a bottom here (much to my chagrin of course) – time to hedge, triggers on the chart.
And I promise I won’t boast about my DX campaign (snicker) – but for the rest of you guys here may be a chance to play a shake out. Double inside day – usually decent odds on that as velocity seems to be slowing up here. A breach in either direction is a good play. I’ll put my stop at today’s lows – if stopped out I’ll be short with a stop near yesterday’s highs. If we get a double whammy (stop out both ways) I’ll continue higher with my current position size.
FWIW – the long con across various futures contracts seems to be the play of the year. This is easy money folks with beautiful prime rib entries and strongly trending tape. If you keep staring at equities all day you may not just go blind but also miss out on a lot of fun. And that – my dear steel rats – would be unforgivable. So get with the program!
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