Now Reading
The One That Got Away
59

The One That Got Away

by The MoleFebruary 3, 2015

Unfortunately there is one chart I somehow forgot to post last night. Which is a shame as it was one of my favorite setups: crude.

2015-02-02_crude_setup

I grabbed the March contract near 50, just above the NLBL and the 25-day SMA. For some reason the chart fell through the cracks and when I saw it this morning I realized that I hadn’t posted about it. So here’s what happened since then:

2015-02-03_crude

Judging by the beautiful ramp on the hourly panel the squeeze is on! Sorry about dropping that chart last night! Anyway if you happen to be long crude then do nothing. It’s possible that the 50 mark is being re-tested but odds now support that a LT low is in place.

2015-02-03_ZN_briefing

Otherwise I don’t see much I really like this morning – plus I’m treating lightly in this crazy tape. The 10-year bond futures may be a good long above 130’300 – stop below the 100-hour SMA near 130’160.

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    UCO weekly.
    let’s see if this baby can crawl out of the hole.
    or if it’s a dead cat bounce.
    http://s9.postimg.org/eaxnx6tlb/UCO_hole.jpg

    -GG

  • M E

    Gotta respect them arrows!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Be careful – in strong trends you should fade them. It’s possible we’re going to switch into squeeze mode and when that happens you need to ignore reversal signals.

  • M E

    thanks! Arrows have become my holy grail of predicting reversals in this volatile tape. I’ll be careful with this one.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Monitor the tape first – watch the signal strength and the directional velocity. If it’s strongly trending (we don’t know yet today) then be careful with taking those reversal signals blindly. Watch some of the videos – they show what I’m talking about.

  • M E

    I must say this is a tantalizing spot to go short… Just under 2040 and stalling…

  • BobbyLow

    Morning Folks, Jeez, for some reason, I didn’t realize that there was a new thread.

    I remain Long Crude via UCO and Long DJUSEN via DIG. My GBP/JPY Short hit its target last night and was closed automatically by an OCO order.

    This morning I reversed and went long the GBP/JPY. Don’t know how the day will end up but so far so good. :)

  • Skynard

    Wiating for the gap fill tomorrow.

  • M E

    grabbing a lottery ticket. nasdaq looking iffy

  • Skynard

    /NG, FN cool as all around here:)

  • Skynard

    Keep an eye on the ZL, should be giving good clues.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Gold may be getting soggy again. (I know, *shocking*)

    time to prepare.
    [GLL]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p82326505994

    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Bullish Percentage intraday buy signal crossover.
    that was ABRUPT.

    [BPSPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p00676909063

  • M E

    that was one winning ticket!

  • Skynard

    Stops run, off she goes.

  • M E

    ever since i’ve started posting my trades here, i’ve vastly improved! next step is to start a journal.

  • ridingwaves

    sector rotation in play all over the board today…

  • Skynard

    At gap support, see if she holds..

  • Skynard

    Getting long the /DX @ 94.00 now, if she hits it.

  • BobbyLow

    Excellent! I try to post all my trades here along with my results and whether the results are good, bad or ugly. I don’t post detail as to why I’m doing this or doing that because my time frame and RBT can be totally different from others. I also tend to be boring because I trade the same 4 things over and over again. :)

    I think Scott said at one time that an argument can be made for both going long and going short at any given time. So if I’m Long and someone else is Short, we both can be correct or both be wrong. It’s only a trade. Having said that, one of the good things here at ES is that people are not put in a position to have to defend a position. Yahoo stock message boards are full of that stuff.

    This is a trading blog and I like it when someone says that they shorted this or went long that. For me it helps pass the day and help keep things interesting.

    On the topic of a journal, IMO, keeping a written track of why a trade worked or didn’t and especially mistakes are absolutely vital.

  • squirrelsome

    Call me crazy but I am going to be short crude below 50.5

  • Vince_Clortho

    /NQ is messing up the party for the rest of the boys. Isn’t playing along with the stick save rally today.

  • Skynard

    Bull flag 5 min, long /ES

  • squirrelsome

    Long NG, stop at low of day

  • M E

    My favorite thing about ES is that people aren’t married to their positions, and they are flexible flipping when a trade goes against them. I am not a Bull or a Bear, just ME trying to navigate these tricky waters.

  • M E

    Below VWAP and can’t rise

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s not crazy. don’t know your timeline or rules.
    but you should lay out the Risk:Reward.

    if it does go your way, what is your target 47?
    and if doesn’t where is your stop?
    I believe > 3:1 is required now days!

  • squirrelsome

    I tend to start my trades as day-only and rarely hold over night, since I do ETFs, not futures. My stop in this case would be the high of the day, which would be the low 77.88 in SCO. My presumptive target for the day, 47.50 (exaggerated, I know), which I think means around 89 in SCO. That’s 4:1 R/R. Kind of too optimistic.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    You’ve laid out your thinking, now you have a plan.

    If I were to catch a falling knife in SCO,
    a bounce at 75 or 70. discipline Mandatory.
    [SCO]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCO&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p95930980472

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Trading the Zero seems to come natural to you. Don’t get cocky but keep up the good work.

  • Darkthirty

    a-b- or 1-2 / i-ii

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Nice to be on the right side of a Squeeze. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    A Leo full moon no less!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that would explain last night!!

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. I’ve had a +5 Point move so far from my initial open. I don’t have any targets and am going to ride it until it gets real tired. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    as you said weeks ago, sentiment overshoots both ways?

    BPENER went from sub 5 at the Holidays, to 70!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPENER&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p46870489793

  • Billabong

    I’m with you boys on this one … UCO is also sweet. Look to the correlation areas that have been under pressure with crude … coal for example.

  • Skynard

    That got a little crazy on the currency side.

  • Darkthirty

    That’s what she said

  • ridingwaves

    hurt the euro short players and dollar longs….it was perfect place to do it with all the oil to 20 talk….bear fodder making its way around the forest…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geHLdg_VNww

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    just took a peek. $69.25
    well that was fast.

  • BobbyLow

    As much as I despise news, every once in awhile I feel the need for some comedic relief. I found this little Gem from Bloomberg Business:

    “U.S. equities followed European stocks higher on Tuesday
    after Greece retreated from a plan to ask the euro area to write
    down debt. That eased concern that the nation would defy its
    creditors. Stocks briefly pared gains after a person familiar
    with the matter said Germany expects negotiations with Greece to
    drag on until the current round of bailout funding runs out.”

    Now when this statement is translated into reality, it probably means that Greece asking to write down debt was a disaster. But when Greece retreated from this request, agreed to keep the debt on the books and simply just doesn’t ever pay it back is reason for joy.

    This news is worthy of John Stewart and the Daily Show. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    RBL $15.25 at the pitchfork middle line again.
    (trying to go higher)

  • mugabe

    DBC, too

  • BobbyLow

    Look at Crude go. “Run Forrest Run!” :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ’54’
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=m5
    Squirrelsome, now I can call you crazy.
    😉

  • squirrelsome

    …not so sure

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    i’m teasing.

  • squirrelsome

    i know… but if i was long i would get out now

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    like you said, you close by EOD.
    always nerve wracking for me when I did options.
    (must close, must close, must close)

  • squirrelsome

    no… not that… something more sinister:)

  • Darkthirty

    Picking up pennies……

  • BobbyLow

    LOL, Different Strokes I guess.

    I’ve been burned too many times trying to trade support and resistance on any time frame. I’m not smart enough to do this or perhaps it just isn’t a fit for me. However, if I think I see if something is heading in a particular direction I’ll jump on until it throws me off.

    Or in its most simplest terms. “Buy strength – Sell Weakness”. :)

  • Skynard

    /DX showing a similar candle which we had 5 days ago. It rallied afterward. This could be the final straw for a bit

  • squirrelsome

    yeah, yeah :)
    but i would have used a picture, not a link. tomorrow your post will look weird :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ______ _____ ______ _____ _ _ __ __ ______ _______
    | ____|| __ | ____| / ____|| | | | | / || ____| / |__ __|
    | |__ | |__) || |__ | (___ | |__| | | / || |__ / | |
    | __| | _ / | __| ___ | __ | | |/| || __| / / | |
    | | | | | |____ ____) || | | | | | | || |____ / ____ | |
    |_| |_| _|______||_____/ |_| |_| |_| |_||______|/_/ _|_|

  • squirrelsome

    I can maintain overnight but have to adjust the position size. Sometimes i get lazy and just close it. Peace of mind is priceless.