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The Spiral Calendar
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The Spiral Calendar

by The MoleJune 24, 2009

Okay, I’m letting the cat out of the bag: June 25/26 +/-3 days will be a key turning date range:

I originally thought it would be a top – but now it seems it might be a bottom. Everyone expects a rally tomorrow, which would be in the acceptable +/- 3 days range. However, the question is: Why would so many calendar intervals point towards such an insignificant low? Of course we could keep dropping for a few more days, making it less insignificant. Still scratching my head over this one – maybe it will be nothing – we humans have a tendency to see the things we want to see.

I guess this will give you rats enough to chew on. Not going to post a tutorial on this – let’s see who figures out what I’m talking about here. BTW, make note of the ‘past lines’ – almost eerie how well those line up – and I only just started connecting them.

No changes to the wave count since Monday night – yes, we could have concluded a 5 today and are now on our way up. But we could also easily extend a third wave to the downside here – maybe it’s best to sit it out and let the market pick its direction. I might just hedge myself in the morning if we get a drop at the open.

Cheers 😉

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • TonyMontana

    Mole,

    Did you mean June 25/26 by any chance?

    Thanks,

    Tony Montana

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I think he does mean June 25/26

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I didnt bother checking the lengths of these calendar windows that you have marked..but their lengths have something to do with fibonacci number series.. or some such crap…

    As for you saying that today might have been an insignificant low.. what happens tomorrow and beyond will show us why today was a significant low.. may be we just launch from here tomorrow because of what Fed says and never to look back..

    On a lighter note, when are you bringing tarrot card predictions and the crystal ball and may be some fortune-tellers – LOL.. j/k .. not trying to make fun of what you posted… In fact, appreciate you showing us different perspective.. Just because we dont understand it, does not mean that it doesnt work.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The SPX golden cross happened today. Found another interesting article on it

    http://www.ibankcoin.com/woodshedderblog/index….

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock
  • amgrant

    Mole,

    I'm guessing you meant JUNE 25/26 (not JULY). Anyways, your turn dates matches up with mine to the tee.

    Incidentally, I edited my last post to include a link to Charles Nenner's predictions. Worth listening to.

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/06/high-probabi

  • Eric_in_SFL

    I think Mole means June not July!

  • Eric_in_SFL

    My moneys on that its going to be a top, either Friday or Monday, guess the fed will have to pull some kind of amazing BS out of their asses tomorrow.

  • amgrant

    Small change in McClellan oscillator today suggests a large move tomorrow. I'm really on the fence which way we go…put a gun to my head, I'd say up since we are more on the oversold side. I may be hedging too tomorrow.

  • molecool

    No tarot cards – as you can see these are time cycles.

  • rhae

    I think if it is going to bounce… the odds are high that it will soon… maybe even tomorrow..
    SPX daily… the chart says so…

  • http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/ Forkoholic

    and I though germans don't believe in spiral calendar! wow, mole is risen in my eyes to a new highs 😉

  • amity

    “may be we just launch from here tomorrow because of what Fed says and never to look back.. ” I agree except for “never to look back” – “not looking back” I think will sound better just for the sake of “never say never”. See also on http://finance.yahoo.com/ the DJI chart “From Apr 1974 To Apr 1976″ – we could be like in mid Jan 1975”. Your thoughts appreciated.

  • bist

    Everyone keeps talking about the golden cross. But the 200 day ma is falling day by day while the 50 day ma is rising. I think it's only a golden cross when both 200 day ma and 50 day ma are both rising and the 50 day overtakes the 200.

    Furthermore the 50 day ma is rising at a decreasing rate meaning it's quite possible if the market keeps tanking that the 50 day overtakes the 200 day for a brief period before falling below it again…

  • Offtimer

    Maybe we can fill these gaps in morning and breakout in the afternoon to the upside.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    One Channel to Rule Them All…….I am giving this market every chance to run up, and it doesnt want to take any opportunities…it's odd. I am staying short although per some fuisan advice will cover some of my sold calls

    I do not think that whatever happens in the next 2 weeks is going to result in a run to 1050 on the ES / Spy

    http://screencast.com/t/mMc8sjgX

    http://screencast.com/t/uA7dHCrjly

    More and prior charts on
    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  • Count_de_Monee

    “Everyone expects a rally tomorrow”
    I don't expect a rally today, but then again I'm not everyone. Seriously, I think we peek our heads a little over 900 today but it doesn't hold and we close lower (again), maybe as low as 875 SPX.

    Here's a little taste from this morning's GS report:

    “- Day traders and others who use leveraged ETFs have turned quite bullish on equities – bearish from a contrarian perspective. TrimTabs: Leveraged long ETFs issued $518 million (3.0% of assets) in the past week, while leveraged short ETFs redeemed $55 million (0.4% of assets).”

  • milingz

    http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2009/06/20/testi

    Turns out, it doesn't matter if the 200d is rising or falling – you will have a push upwards regardless.

    No matter, it's pretty much a self fulfilling prophecy at this point…everyone is looking at it (even the bulltards on CNBC), which means when it occurs, we will push higher. It's almost a foregone conclusion.

  • goldpackers

    6-25/26 is an important Gann turn. Also, it was a low in 2007 that lead to a slight new high. A break of yesterday's lows confirms a 3rd wave down of some degree. Will be a fun 3 days. 848 or 935 + ????

  • milingz

    It's all in the title of the blogpost. Spiral Calendar analysis tries to time the market using Fibonacci numbers and the Gregorian calendar (lunar based cycles).

    I own “The Spiral Calendar and Its Effect on Financial Markets and Human Events.” It's a good read, very interesting analysis.

  • springheel_jack

    Mole, I didn't know you watched the spiral calendar. So do I. in fact I first found this blog from the link on Carolan's blog.

    The correlations are very impressive I agree, though I have found that they can be a few days out sometimes, as with the bottom in March, which was called end Feb. The dates for the significant tops in April, May & June though were very close.

    I agree with you that this bottom seems too shallow & a bottom at 870-880 would fit better. Doesn't necessarily mean it will happen of course but we may well see more downside here & then rally next week.

  • Autopsias

    Maybe it's me because I'm dumb or only because I'm an alien, but I seriously don't have a clue on what the F's mean on the graph posted by mole.

    Does anyone know what's that supposed to mean? Or is everyone else too shy to ask? :)

  • goldpackers

    In 07, rallied into mid July from 6-25 and crashed into mid August. Next important Gann turns are 7-21/22 and 8-12/13. Will history repeat?

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning brothers and sisters!

    At 906 and higher I'll be reloading shorts, maybe a few spy puts as well.
    Have a great day.

  • springheel_jack

    Large impulse movement in EURUSD right now. I'll scale down my position once it ends, hopefully below 1.40.

    I'd hold longer but on FOMC day with a weakening inverse correlation between equities & USD it might be best to take the money & run.

  • pricey

    OK – I will fall prey to the question – your chart looks like a possible head and shoulders setting up.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Morning ladies and not ladies.
    Just a repost of my fav chart of SPX (yellow circle was there for a while – “price objective so to speak)
    As price tgt was reached few days before I expected due to spectacular selloff and as of now odds favor up move (green fat bottomed line) and I had too good of a week AND too many people bullish/bearish right now – I just have some NTM collars setups otherwise I am flat, fat and lazy and SOH (not to be AssOciated with SoH – where I am not)

    http://screencast.com/t/ewgvJ5WsmE

    Mole – that is one mysterious date you have (24/26) – that is how they treat property in community state?
    BTW – that date is 34 fib TS from last completed TDSetup Sell – move IS expected within 1-3 days
    Trade Well gang

  • bearmaid

    Mac OSX 10.5 problem after update to brand new Java version, does not work with Interactivebrokers account. IB program freezes while starting. Anyone any idea?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Mole, I think your turn date will be to the downside after we correct a bit, there are just too many indicators that point to more downside. It aint over yet

  • LostIllini

    Don't Forget California is going to go belly up in a little bit, I can't see that being good even in a bear market rally. Break out your checkbook Mole, your taxes are going up, up, up….

  • flatlanders

    With two left shoulders making a second right shoulder come in close to 100 SPY (1000 SPC).

  • MakiQ

    A question for future-trading dudes and babes…If you are using thinkorswim as your broker, what is the minimum requirement for trading NQs and ESs? Plus, what would you recommend to be an adequate amount of funds for futures trading (assuming 1 contract is traded at the beginning)?

  • Bricks

    I posted this last week in response to Mole's original teaser about June25/26. I know it's news driven (mostly verbotten here) but should be significant

    June 26th is the Russel reorganization date. As all the big boys rebalance based on the reorganized index a SH!T LOAD of money will be changing hands.

  • gannsecret

    Mole, My cycles point to a top in that time frame. Most likeley the 30th.
    high close on Friday the 26th (ideally at 951)

  • Duuuuuude

    More Dates:
    June 25 is a Voice of Tomb date for corn.
    July 1 is a Voice of Tomb Date for soybeans.

  • molecool

    Yes – change brokers. Seriously. IB sucks.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    this tape is getting boringly predictable – sign of just dumb retail left to rid of money

    http://screencast.com/t/dmBd82y26

  • annamall

    You are one adorable alien! 😀

  • molecool

    So, you also believe this date will mark a low?

  • annamall

    Morning Mole-ster and everyone…! I was just going to post, wow you are up early. :-)
    Whenever the boyz start reallocating funds, anything is up for grabs. The end of the half is upon us.

    I am watching the USD today and expect some kind of bounce today, but anything is up for grabs @ this point, I might as well plot the stars and analyze through astrology. 😀

  • Autopsias

    That's what our green ladies here say too! 😉

    But they are not as adorable as you…

    Any clue on those F's then?:)

  • thelefteyeguy

    looks like a gap up today…

  • fuw

    From cnbc
    “Durable Goods Rise Much More Than Expected, Up 1.8% (story developing)”

    Caused sizeable bounce in Europe.

  • molecool

    Well, it's basically fib roots multiplied by one constant, which happens to be the moon cycle. Quite frankly I think Carolan is a genius and in my mind this the key to creating the missing link in EWT, which is the time dimension.

    I am fairly certain that there are rules to aligning those intervals and I'm determined to crack that nut.

  • molecool

    Yeah – sorry guys – I corrected it.

  • Different Stripes

    1974 had a double bottom, 04 Oct and 09 December, which IMO makes it very different than what we have now

  • wex

    Good Morning David,
    What does SOH and NTM mean please?

  • MaxPainMan

    shorting /6J

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    $ was rising

  • springheel_jack

    Looking at the spiral calendar over the last year I think it must mark a significant low.

    If so, then this low seems too insignificant to date. More downside seems likely before the significant low is made and the ensuing rally commences. We could have a week from here to put that in though. it doesn't need to be this week. We could make the low Monday or Tuesday without it being inconsistent.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Sitting on hands (in my case in order not to be trigger happy – I put them under my butts)

    NTM – Near the Money

  • Ghostdog

    All sorts of revesal divergences setting up across the board but it just seems too obvious to be true and more like a short term head fake. Can't quite put my finger on why the spoooz couldnt catch a bid with the dollar in the grinder. Something stinks in the Whathouse, but they alreay know that…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    It will be interesting to see if SPX dips below 900 after open. Although futures are weakening and that tells me we might get to spx-sub-900 levels on SPY even before we open.

  • bsummertime

    Jimi rocks!

  • rhae

    My SPX chart says, very bounceable… I am give this channel extra slop…
    As a bear… What Me Worry?
    http://screencast.com/t/lkuuzgKVO

  • fuw

    I'm a bit thick. What are you getting at?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Look at gold pop.. it is up 25 bucks from yesterday's lows – WOW

  • springheel_jack

    I think you're right. We might pull up a bit before declining further today or tomorrow.

    What's your take on today alphahorn? How high could we go to still be consistent with your wave iv count?

    FOMC a bit of a wild card today obviously, and though Mole doesn't like trading the news it seems that FOMC has dominated the currency markets yesterday & so far today.

    EURUSD still a great short from 1.41 I think. Already cashed out 3/4 of my short from yesterday at 1.402 this morning. Hoping to repeat that today.

  • amgrant

    I think it goes without saying that most of us are short so I am watching out for a huge post-fed rally. I will be extremely quite to exit my positions at any decent sign of strength. Not taking my chances, I can always re enter.

  • Douala

    I been meaning to tell you this for some time now. Every time you post something because of your avatar, I feel like you are screaming it out in pain. I must say to this day I still have to laugh when I read your posts. [LOL]

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Hopefully, today sheds some light on the many possible wave counts. I believe one thing that's for certain, there is a lot more to this move down.

    new post

    http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/

  • MaxPainMan

    wow, SPY July puts got crushed

  • Fujisan

    While Mole is discussing the time dimension, I'm going to post my own time and price analysis.

    I posted this chart a couple of months ago, and this time cycle is holding very nicely and I thought that this would help you guys.

    SPY is going through a very distinctive bull/bear time cycle in relation to OPX, and here is how it goes.

    During the consolidation phase:

    1. Monday after OPX, SPX hits intermediate low, and then
    2. Turn around and go higher (bull cycle)
    3. Monday two weeks before next OPX, SPX hits intermediate high, and
    4. Turn around and go lower (bear cycle)
    5. Repeat 1~4

    During the trending phase:

    SPX will accelerate toward the direction of the trend to OPX.

    My intermediate target is around SPY 93 on Monday after July 4th holiday for a creation of a right shoulder.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Fuji-san/fo

  • http://es seawolves

    gannsecret that's what I'm seeing too

  • ropey

    AZO taking a crap?

  • thelefteyeguy

    me too

  • MaxPainMan

    haha :-)
    then for all of you that can hear me: SHORT /6J !!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • MaxPainMan

    .SWGSL has been good to me lately…
    maybe i'll load up at $2.00

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Brilliant! Thanks

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    BIDU up nicely… 287 region is a resistance.. I will sell my calls from yesterday around there.. 275 is a support.. i have put my stop there..

  • ckeltner

    Thank you Fujisan, excellent as always!

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Nice chart.

  • fuw

    good post +1

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I will scale out of some of my longs on the hopefully the surge that results when ES busts 900 to the upside for the first time.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Did IYR declare dividend.. it is in RED and SRS is 3% down

  • gusrock1414

    Gold and silver names looking very interesting to me for a continued long play. I am going to wait on the Fed move to entertain positions. Dollar looks like its about to break down here. I am hitting the pool. Nashville in the summer is so very nice.

  • PeterK80

    Yeah…I am watching the same thing. I think we might fill the gap or at least go to 897. Personally my short term bias is that we bust out higher sometime today.

  • standard_and_poor

    Yes but as mgmt.
     we try to keep his ego in line. 
     

    ________________________________

  • wex

    Thanks

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • molecool

    Another one took the cool aid.

  • molecool

    Timing seems to fit mine perfectly. The only disagreement on my end is that I think we'll bust a lot higher before we finally drop.

    Arrigate gozaimas, hana-san.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    That wa first shot at 900, ES will bust through on next attempt

  • standard_and_poor

    Added tiny amt. of shorts 904, still may get higher prices don't spend your wad.

  • Douala

    Fujisan

    Made some corrections to your SPY Road Map from the other day based on what you wrote above. Would you like to take a look at it and see if you agree with the changes?

    http://tinyurl.com/lg6j57

  • Fujisan

    I agree on that end. I'm expecting one more leg up before it finally drops.

  • Fujisan

    Looks good, Doula!

  • markpmc

    By my count Delta ITD point 2 is due is scheduled for 28 Jun +- 2 days. I'd call a polarity for ITD2, but I can't until it's 'in'. Then the rest of the series should fall into place.

    Mark

  • markpmc

    By my count Delta ITD point 2 is due is scheduled for 28 Jun +- 2 days. I'd call a polarity for ITD2, but I can't until it's 'in'. Then the rest of the series should fall into place.

    Mark

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