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This Is Evil Speculator

by The MoleOctober 7, 2015

I’m pretty distressed by what I’m seeing in the comment section in recent weeks. There is increasing directional bias combined with an irrational urgency to catch every single swing. Let me take this opportunity to remind all of you that as soon as you believe that you are in control or possess any prescience as to the future direction of the tape Mrs Market will pick you up and deliver a thorough spanking – if you’re lucky.

2015-10-07_zero

The Zero is a fantastic market oscillator and frankly I still cannot grasp why not every single one of you trading equities is hooked on this thing. However that said – it is not the holy grail and does not give you license to engage in spurious trading activity. Of course sometimes what it doesn’t show you may be as important as what it does. Namely that, over the past few days, the signal has spent over 90% of its time above the zero mark. So when I say comments like ‘I’m all in‘ or ‘die b..tch‘ or ‘did you go short?‘ then I wonder if any of you are paying any attention to the prime directives that have been offered here for over eight years now. One of them being – wait for signal and for price to confirm before even thinking about placing a trade. We are not running a bucket shop over here!

I strongly encourage the culprits to spend some time meditating on this before you resort to posting paltry excuses or attempt to offer some hare brained rationalization. What do you think you are doing? This is Evil Speculator – so act accordingly.

2015-10-07_gold_update

Nothing interesting on the setup front today. Gold is slowing down but I don’t see a reason to go short here just yet. That said – the daily looks like it could embark on a massive short squeeze, which is why we need to bite our time. If I see a spike high and some weakness I will grab a small short with a stop above the SH. However if I see a quick drop lower then I plan on doing the opposite and go long. Again small positions sizing is appropriate here as volatility will work in your favor.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Ronebadger

    Yes Sir! Thanks!

  • mugabe

    That’s good advice whatever time frame you use.

  • tradingmom

    SPX just tagged the 50 dma.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for trying to keep us on course Mole.

    My methods are rather boring so please take what I say with a grain of salt. Recently, I’ve noticed a lot of cocksure predictions by some that can be annoying because even when these predictions are correct, I can not see how they help anyone because of people having different entries/exits, risk levels, time frames etc.

    That’s not to say that we shouldn’t post trades because trading is what we do. It’s the shrill levels that I think we can do without. Another thing is that nobody wins all of the time. Therefore IMO, posting losers along with winners establishes credibility and is more realistic as to just how difficult this business can be.

  • RoastBeeph

    Yep, let’s see what happens here.

  • Kishore Kumar

    Thanks Mole, for an excellent timely reminder. Old habits die hard. That’s why it is better to not trade when the old habits try to force one to take a position against the indicators or the rules. There is no room for guesses, speculation or predictions. The “devil” of bad habits is within us. Hard to fight! Do nothing and just watch the monkey mind till it is no longer forcing you to act against the indicators or the rules. Even then, an old habit of doubt can make one miss a trade, i.e. a mistake. However, it is better to not trade than to jump into a bad trade.

  • tradingmom

    I’ve seen this chart floating around in a few places and thought it was interesting. The 20 month sma has provided interesting resistance in the past. Its at spx 2005 now and being backtested.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I don’t see any divergence on RSI for crude oil at all. That is usually one thing I look for either way.

  • saltwaterdog

    Timeframe, timeframe, timeframe.

  • mugabe

    another problem is the guru syndrome … following someone blindly. The problem is not whether they’re right or wrong, but that it doesn’t help you to become an autonomous trader.

  • RoastBeeph

    There goes crude, down. Larger than expected reserves.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Pain trade continues. Looks like too many tried shorting this level of resistsnce

  • BobbyLow

    What time frame are you looking at?

  • RoastBeeph

    Well those are some pretty ugly red candles.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I saw the comments on this at end of last thread. Sky sure nailed crude but I agree and I don’t follow anyone without my own thoughts to the best of my ability. Sometimes I’ll admit I use this site as confirmation of my thoughts but not in place of them. I have absorbed Moles posts for years now and try to be my own person as much as possible.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Short NQ again. “die bitch” 😉

  • tradingmom

    Would that the zero were saying that :-(

  • RonnieH

    Zero flatlined

  • RoastBeeph

    Once zero gets to the zero line, it seems to take quite a bit of market drive to take it below or above the ZL when it would signal a trend change.

  • tradingmom

    not always…just depends on the day and what’s going on under the hood.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Sky is amazing but I get Mole’s points. I sense and agree with his frustration and try not to be one of the sources of it as best I can as this is a great place. Lots of different personalities and styles and I try to absorb/learn w/out copying/stealing.

  • RoastBeeph

    NQ is so weak compared to ES today. Biotech is in freefall.

  • RoastBeeph

    Yeah, odd. Look at all the red with high volume, yet ZL won’t go below zero on the 5min ES.

  • RoastBeeph

    There she goes, below zero finally.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I agree, and I respect Mole always knocking the sense into everyone here. We definitely cannot cowboy the market, it will throw you off and kick you anytime.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nobody is sacred – Skynard is a good operator but I think he’s gotten a bit too bold lately.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not telling you what to do – just pointing out if I think you’re fucking up.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Skynard is usually on the mark with his trades. His short was also correct, just a bit early. This market will sweep you out before doing what you know its going to do. I got stopped out of my NQ short last night. I re-entered after seeing the price action this morning. In the green at 40 handles now. Couldve been a lot more if not for the stop sweep.

  • Huey

    Appreciate your concern for your readers Mole. I like your approach of calling people out, myself included, for irrational thinking. I’ve made more progress in the last few weeks toward building a sustainable trading business than I have in the last year. Thanks!

  • RoastBeeph

    Skynard’s awesome. Sure, his trades are high risk but he seems more right than he is wrong and when he is right, he is usually right in a huge way. If a person follows someone else’s trades without thinking that is their own risk and stupidity. I learned the hard way not to just take other people’s trades, will never win long term that way.

    ZL doesn’t seem to trust that the bull rally is over just yet.

  • BKXtoZERO

    agreed. Only thing perhaps not kosher is egging others on to go full on etc…. for me, I blew myself up (a few times) so it is a little like a former alcoholic having someone say have the whole 6 pack. Other than that he is awesome, appreciated big time and partially responsible for some of my recent success. Put it this way, I don’t go against him or Mole anymore. I may do nothing, but I don’t go against Sky/Mole or general ideas here by most.

  • mugabe

    I know:) my indirect comment wasn’t written with you in mind.

  • BobbyLow

    Skynard and I came on board Evil Speculator at about the same time in 2009 or 2010 and are kind of brothers in arms. I have watched his growth and have enormous respect for his skill and abilities.

    Having said that, I’ve seen him add to losing positions and pull it off. However, strong arguments can be made that adding to losing positions is the wrong thing to do. Then there is extending stops. Strong arguments can be made that is also the wrong thing to do too.

    I suppose that one sports analogy could be like a baseball player who is an excellent hitter but has a batting stance with one foot up in the air off the plate and the other on the outside edge of the batters box. This guy can really hit but if other players tried his stance they would strike out or even fall over if they tried to swing.

    Lastly I wish he would post a loss every once in awhile. Perhaps it’s just not his style. A loss is not necessarily a mistake, it’s just a loss. For example my booked Forex Trading so far this week has accounted for 1 Win and 3 Losses for a net -1.95R. 2 of my losses were just losses and traded correctly. One of my losses was a bad mistake because I screwed with my stop too early and if I had left it alone that trade would have been a win and I should now only be down -.95R.

    I also believe that we as traders can learn just as much if not more from losing trades than from winnners. So why not tell us when things don’t work out and why?

  • Billabong

    “I also believe that we as traders can learn just as much if not more from losing trades than from winners.” Sometimes losing trades happen and that’s it…

  • RoastBeeph

    Posting trading track records would be great. Maybe I’ll post mine once I start trading successfully.

  • Billabong

    I don’t use others trades and stick with my own RBT … Best example was BL / Scott long CL while I was short. I didn’t beat myself up over it. I knew from experience, the longer CL went sideways the higher the probability the original direction (down in this case) would reverse. On the other hand, I went RBT long miners when everyone was pissing all over them…

  • BobbyLow

    Sure. Success is a relative term. In any event, I would suggest posting in terms of R, Average Positive Expectancy, SQN 100 and Win Rate. This makes everything relative because of the wide differences there can be in Trading Account sizes. Therefore a $1,000 can mean the same thing as $100 in terms of R. (Risk per trade)

    This sounds more complicated than it really is and levels out the playing field.

  • RoastBeeph

    Adding to losing trades does seem like the best way to blow up an account. One guy posting at this blog has added to his short every 5 point increment up from SPX 1920. That seems like a scenario where a guy could lose his entire account.

    https://www.facebook.com/vsg.opader

  • BobbyLow

    I’m glad you brought CL up because there have been other occasions where you were on the right side and I was on the wrong side. But the one thing that was constant throughout was a mutual respect for each other’s positions. Neither one of us or Scott for that matter screamed that price was going to do this or that. We only stated what our positions were.

  • BobbyLow

    OMG! That is a disaster in waiting.

  • RoastBeeph

    The Fly appears ready to concede that Nasdaq might go lower from here.

  • hellbent

    Stop attached to indicator vanished in the night… DON’T rush into trading NT8 live BTW. It’s got…. issues.

  • mugabe

    that’s what makes a market!

  • mugabe

    yeah, if you’ve got an RBT, I suppose you don’t really learn much from any trade. ‘one of the next 1,000’, as it were
    the real danger is when you start saying: ‘ah, if only I’d set that moving average/indicator differently, the trade would have worked ..

  • BKXtoZERO

    10 day chart, last 2 days, divergence there prior to drop today

  • mugabe

    from that link ‘Futures are higher. I have no idea why. I expected same numbers except in red.’

    this might not be the best source of trading insight :)

  • RoastBeeph

    Yeah, that site is all hope. It’s one of many blogs I read once in a while to see what people are saying. That site in particular tends to be a perma bear like zero hedge.

  • RoastBeeph

    If the market keeps trending up but the zero line doesn’t move (but also doesn’t go down either), is that considered divergence?

  • BobbyLow

    Might work but be careful with crude because there is usually a pretty decent range intra day no matter what the time span of the candle is. I’ll assume that you’ve back tested this over as much time that you could and good luck.

    Another thing is that I used to follow the Weds Oil Report faithfully until I saw extended periods of time with Crude Oil Builds while Price continued to go up. I’ve also seen the reverse when there were weekly drawdowns while price continued to fall. Today is not over yet but according to the oil report, oil should be falling like a rock but so far it hasn’t.

    The bottom line is that consumer supply and demand takes a back seat to supply and demand of oil contracts held by big players. They control price so price is all that I follow.

  • Billabong

    Good point. I do experiment with single trades to see if “tweaking” could improve R. Then it’s not only dependent on the position taken / sample size, but also market/sector dynamics. In the end, the only question I ask myself, was the “tweaking” worth the cost / energy and did R improve.

  • RoastBeeph

    The guy’s account might be blowing up right now.

  • mugabe

    yeah, the only problem is ‘magickal optimsation’ … e.g. ‘this strategy works great with RSI 14 but badly with RSI 10’

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Look at the context – on the drop down the Zero signal was only scraping -0.5 which is marginal at best. Thus far we still have not seen a solid bearish divergence. The bulls still got this.

    .

  • RoastBeeph

    Hmm, interesting. Thanks.

  • Bill

    I think The Fly is good for entertainment purposes only.

  • RoastBeeph

    He’s definitely a hilarious writer.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    yes, he’s good but I think he can be better. of course if he just marches off insulted then he’s simply standing in the way of personal growth.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And how would he know? I love the guy but none of us have a crystal ball. Yes, the market WILL go lower – WHEN is the question. And without knowing that it’s all pure academics – drill this into your head.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks as always……

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Agreed and extremely entertaining. He should have his own show.

  • Bill

    The Fly could have a show where he just makes sarcastic comments over top of Mad Money. That would be fun.

  • Huey

    That would be gold!

  • tradingmom

    Hourly’s got a toppy look to it. Four candles after the big red one and we still can’t recapture the high. Plus, look at the hourly zero.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Who’s is this Fly? Where does he perform?

  • RoastBeeph

    Has the Fly ever been on TV?

  • Huey

    He writes on ibankcoin. Always has a rant and his non-pc delivery is pretty funny.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    tks

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Just read some of his posts. There’ no charting or technical analysis, its all words for his trades

  • mugabe

    this is a bit tangential, but it’s a great post: apathy as a strategy

    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/apathy-as-a-strategy/

  • Huey

    Yeah, and like everyone above is saying, I don’t even look at his trades he’s just funny to read.

  • mugabe

    market showing again today that its goal is to inflict maximum pain on the maximum number of participants

  • Huey

    Just my view of it, but I don’t see that as a divergence. An oscillator will always drift toward neutral (50 in this case) as prices flat line. The only real divergence I see is when price made two pushes lower and the indicator made its swing low on the first push.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The big bad woodchipper – nobody gets out unscathed. Price of admission.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What’s a TV?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He’s always good for a few laughs.

  • Scott Phillips

    How would you know? He “seems” more right than he is wrong.

    Did you keep a list? Did he? Has he posted results?

    I’m not hanging shit on Sky, he is an excellent trader. Just pointing out the obvious that until you see some objective evidence you should assume he loses over the long term like most traders do

  • Scott Phillips

    If not now then in the future. Bad trading is not rewarded long term

  • Scott Phillips

    Don’t feel bad. His money is in a better place

  • Scott Phillips

    You learn from every trade.

  • Scott Phillips

    You should follow your rules, no matter what others are doing. If you don’t have rules you need rules.

    You are giving yourself a pat on the back for being better than you were, but without rules you still suck.

  • Scott Phillips

    He nailed crude and got ES wrong.

    One right one wrong. 50/50

    Thats ok. Just not enough evidence of anything, good or bad.

  • BKXtoZERO

    noted and have been working on it already ahead of my winter schedule.

  • Grant

    Directional bias posts will continue til there is some accountability. I can’t imagine rolling out of bed at 1-2 am and having to decide on red or black depending on some support or resistance channels. I have rules and follow them. It’s very mechanical but that’s prolly why I’m not here much. I don’t need a consensus or someone else’s ideas to pull the trigger. Technical analysis is great for looking at pretty geometrical shapes after the fact.

  • Scott Phillips

    Can you go through the trace file (ninjatrader/trace/date and find the entry)

    Also check the status of the order on the control panel orders, if it was cancelled by ninja OR cancelled by the exchange.

    Several exchanges routinely cancel stops resting on the server, and ninja treats a stop on futures exchanges slightly different, as a stoplimit with a super wide margin. Some exchanges don’t like it.

  • BKXtoZERO

    good stuff. Funny I have a wife and daughter too, and I am also killing myself doing sheetrock work myself rather than pay someone……….AND… it has caused a lot of stress in the family as of late trying to do too much.

  • Scott Phillips

    To start trading successfully, post your track record while you lose. Look at the people you know are profitable on this board. They all post results. I am extremely dubious of the trading record of anyone who does not post results

  • Scott Phillips

    To me he lately seems concerned with being right and catching reversals rather than banking coin. This is a difficult way to trade

  • RoastBeeph

    It turned much redder when China opened. This talk that China opening would be bullish seems to be wrong so far.

  • hellbent

    Reviewing the log is a bit daunting on this one because there are hundreds of entries for just one trade – most of them error messages. Overall I think NT8 is the big step up from 7 that I was hoping for. At this stage though it’s bit dangerous to use it live.

    Would be good to see a table of how various stop orders are handled through different exchanges though. There’s certainly more to it than I thought and it’s an extremely important topic.

  • Scott Phillips

    Honestly you should not even be reading opinions on China and stuff like that.

    Trading is already difficult. Taking into account opinions of others makes it very hard indeed :-)

    Make trading simple, and repeatable. Find an edge. Find an edge that is mostly the same every time. Trade it mostly the same way every time (with small differences). Log the results. Take every trade. Allocate time to look at your winning and losing trades in detail.

    That’s all their is. Every day there is a constant stream of bullshit news to distract you from the main game

  • BKXtoZERO

    I haven’t watched TV since 1996 except for football games.

  • Scott Phillips

    You can email me the trace if you like and I’ll find it for you.. 888rewards at gmail

  • RoastBeeph

    I’m flat right now. :) Just observing for the time being. But I understand what you are saying. :) I am actually looking for an entry but am gunshy since overnight is so volatile. I think I’ll wait until US markets open before seeing what I want to do.

  • Scott Phillips

    Doesn’t matter if you are flat or balls deep.

    You still shouldn’t be reading it.

    Information diet is one of the key principles we teach here. Ed Seykota’s principles include “file the news (in the trash)”

  • RoastBeeph

    Thanks Scott. In terms of who you value the most for trading, can you give me recommendations for people to read or watch videos of? In other words, who do you think highly of as a trader? I’ve been reading Al Brooks which has been helpful (very dense, difficult to understand but definitely appears to be know what he is talking about).

  • Scott Phillips

    Most indicator divergences do NOT test as an edge. Until you do the work and discover for yourself one way or the other you have no business using them

  • Scott Phillips

    Market Wizards books – all of them
    Steenbarger, blogs and books, everything he ever wrote
    Douglas – trading in the zone
    Reminiscences of a stock operator
    Al Brooks, the 3 book series, not the first one which sucks
    Ed Seykota, everything on the FAQ section of seykota.com
    Van Tharp, super trader, trading beyond the matrix
    Linda Raschke – everything by her and her book street smarts
    Ken Long – youtube channel
    Andreas Clenow trend following book and blog

  • RoastBeeph

    Thanks, I really appreciate it. :)

  • BKXtoZERO

    thanks.

  • Scott Phillips

    Don’t worry. The beatings will continue until morale improves!

  • ridingwaves

    I’m going to try and pick CALA up at 6.90-7.40 tomorrow and hold it for move to 9.50-10, S at green bar 1/2 with trailing stop at 9.50 on rest..volume bars on P&F chart tail off around there

    Stop at 6.75

    http://s22.postimg.org/mnyrdx0w1/Cala_moving_on_up.jpg
    http://s15.postimg.org/h2djfvkrv/CALA_P_F.jpg

  • hellbent

    Thanks but I got it. Definitely a Ninja glitch/operator error and not exchange.

  • Scott Phillips

    gotcha – fucking ninja shit.

  • TheRooster

    You stopped watching just when it got really good. I ‘d start with the Sopranos first when catching up.

  • TheRooster

    mate, a few months ago i posted my curve and got some feedback which improved my systems substantially – posting what you have now could substantially shorten the learning curve given the knowledge available on this board

  • newbfxtrader

    Good one! Time to get short unless we break out of this range.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/vuPYrH6q/

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Still short NQ 4300 since Monday. This tape really has gone no where this week.

  • RoastBeeph

    Yesterday looked like a hanging man on the NQ daily. If today starts out with weakness, could mean sellers are back in control.

  • Skynard

    Still short mate, caught them both. One thing that I have learned is to not allow the market to shake me. It grew my confidence by sticking to my plan no matter what!!!!!!!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    have watched movies/DVDs netflix, saw Sopranos, Deadwood, the Wire mostly because wife but they were good. That’s it for TV and those are all cable specials,,,,,,

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ( ( ( ) *
    ) ) ) ) ) ) ( /( ( ` ( * )
    (()/( (()/( ( (()/( )()) )))( ( ) ` ) /(
    /(_)) /(_))) /(_))((_) ((_)() ) ((((_)( ( )(_))
    (_))_|(_)) ((_) (_)) _((_) (_()((_)((_) ) _ ) (_(_())
    | |_ | _ | __|/ __| | || | | / || __|(_)_(_)|_ _|
    | __| | /| _| __ | __ | | |/| || _| / _ | |
    |_| |_|_|___||___/ |_||_| |_| |_||___|/_/ _ |_|

  • captainboom

    A good resource re: information diet and avoiding the news.

    http://dobelli.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Avoid_News_Part1_TEXT.pdf