Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Excellent setups this morning. The E-Mini is now below both its 100-hour and 25-hour SMA. After some sideways gyrations overnight the latter is now approaching rapidly while an hourly NLBL looms above. Very interesting configuration and I would be long on a breach of resistance – until then I’ll be short.

The greenback is bumping its head against its 25-hour plus there’s a NLBL in the way which thus far has been holding up nicely. I’m also short here right now with a stop above the NLBL – willing to flip if she breaches both.

Bonds – here’s the 30-year which is heading into its 100-hour. Great inflection point and setup but not as nice as the one on the ZN which has better context (see below)…

I have quite a few more goodies this morning – please step into my lair:

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) or Zero Pimp-A-Thon to view this content.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 31st, 2013 at 8:47 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Ronebadger

    Thanks for the update, Mole…just what I wanted to hear.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What did you want to hear? A lot of charts in this post…

  • Ronebadger

    ES and USD charts

  • FSUinArizona

    5 min correct?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    ES LKGB? I am shorting.

  • Skynard

    Hehe, shorted /ES 1499. Bull trap!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Thats a  lot of guts. Not scare of the thick green candle at 5m chart? lol

  • captainboom

    Love the Zero.  5 min bottom Zero panel was pointing down on the first couple candles, top Zero panel pointing up.  Hmmmm… Something’s fishy here.  Bang! Popped a couple of points up.

  • ridingwaves

    out of ABIO with volume hole at $1.00, 115% gain….
    Riding ANX as it’s now above 360sma and has lots of room to run if it wants to…

  • Joe_Jones

    I think it’s time for me to dip one ball short

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Took half off with roughly 4 points. Left half and looking to reload if the kiss is not toxic ;)

  • ridingwaves

    all of sudden ARNA love fest back on…5 min candles and volume green….

  • badflightrisk

    NUGT testing $7.70 again

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • FSUinArizona

    That is what I noticed and the reason for my post.

    Dow 14K to end the month?

  • ridingwaves

    still have half, took some profit at 8.40…thinking short spx, long silver might be a good play for Feb….or not…stops help with my bi polarness…

    I would put chump change into ARNA…12 months from now you will be most happy..

  • AmazingLarry

    Hi AAPL, say hello to your old friend the 100 hr. Long breach and push to fill the gap sets up island reversal?

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!!!!! Your imagination is boundless Gerb.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    thanks.
    I always try to add value to the forum, without sloping it of course.

    Divergence:  RiskTrade & Spoos

    http://s14.postimage.org/utdzsvjq9/temp1.png

  • Schwerepunkt

    This market feels like death loitering in the wings. Die already! 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    patience grasshopper, go to your happy place.  breath.

  • bdoone

    SSDD: ‘feels like roll over’ then grind up…works until it doesn’t and when it finally doesn’t it should be fast and furious.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Had to look up SSDD. :) Somebody pass me a roll . . . 

  • Ronebadger

    NDX and SPX are struggling….what’s holding the Russell up?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, divergences are our bread and butter…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    pure will power

  • Ronebadger

    the will power of the small investor?  (no MY will power…)

  • Curiousmind3861

    Is USDJPY consolidating to rocket higher or topping? What do you guys think?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

      IWM has been leading all the way. Up, down and now up again. (oy-way)
    VIX within spitting distance of buy signal (madness)
    FB recovered more than half of earnings gap (nuts)
    My Nazdaq A/D indicator going sideways (boo)
    EEM and XHB (that where leading) are holding just fine
    You know, I don’t day-trade, but the way it stands now
    JBTFD
    (IBergamot ducks)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Emotions – they’ll get you every time. Why do you guys think markets get to the brink and then stop? In order to evoke the exact same emotions that you are experiences. By embracing the pain and letting it go they lose the ability to mess with your mind.

    Once you get to that point you have advanced to the next level. (careful, this level has zombie commie nazis with lasers)

  • bdoone

    1st Zero trade profitable-so far, as I think I did it correctly: long 1493 on 3rd arrow w/divergence. 

  • BobbyLow

    Can’t say for sure but the EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY continue to make new highs.  So perhaps the same is in the making for the USD/JPY.

    Of course the unlimited defecating all over the Yen shouldn’t go on for ever because it wont go to 0.  However, I wouldn’t short anything against the Yen until there are serious signs of a reversal.  Besides, I don’t have to get the first whack.  There’s plenty of middle to be had.  :)

    JMNSHO

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Kewl – that’s what I want to hear :-)

  • Skynard

    Wow, when trading /NG how does a trader define a trend with so much volitility? Guess it made a new high.

  • Skynard

    Nicely done! That was a doozie of a div.

  • bullregard

    Ferocious MMs in NG. Haven’t seen anything like NG in any other market. My guess is they wanted to shake out new shorts. Look at the levels, it looks like a short squeeze isolated to new comers after the report. The trend is still down on daily. Hourly looks like a failed breakout. They were very careful not to break today’s high with sizeable volume. The 3M volume hole was pierced but now is back in the middle of it. I am holding my short.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have told you guys many many many many times – be careful with the nuttygas – use tiny positions – she’s a mover.

  • bullregard

    yeah… i burned myself so many times… it’s an addiction. 

  • bdoone

    Feel vs real: real won i.e. market ‘felt’ weak and looked like rolling-over.  Reality was zero div. said otherwise.

  • bullregard

    also called widowmaker…

  • Skynard

    Thanks, what is the high that they swaged?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    dress appropriately, that’s what you’re saying?

    http://www.thelocal.de/articleImages/25443.jpg

  • Skynard

    Holy shit! You are not kidding!

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    FB
    Highest volume of all the stocks
    Already over 100mil (SPY is 50mil so far)
    Was positive on a day (for a moment), after -7% !
    I’d say its a market leader

  • Skynard

    Agree, could see some down draft:) Still short fr 99.

  • bullregard

    First they faked a break of the daily 25 SMA, at 3.378 on my March chart. On the hourly I see the candles’ bodies not getting over today’s previous bodies. I’m not sure it is proper TA, but it looks significant on the chart :). Then, the violence of the move spoke to me as a short squeeze. Since it didn’t continue over the previous today high (in the hourly bodies, again) my thought was that the squeeze was (is) isolated to johnny come latelies. I am also adding some fundamental thinking to my choice of being short. Coming reports are expected low. The winter is fading, we are looking at the shoulder season up close now. I know it’s not a solid argumentation but that’s what I have now. …Oh, also the fact that the daily chart was badly broken by the latest multi day drop. I have the feeling the 25 SMA is holding well.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ok, I can’t look at this screen any more.
    back in a few hours.

    it’s looking something like this.
    http://www.trionfopublishing.com/images/TellusHonsuEarthquake.jpg

  • Pervergence

    Still short GC from last night

  • Skynard

    Greatly appreciated for your thoughts:)

  • bullregard

    The P&F on $natgas, with an interval of 14 days ATR. PO is 2.16, which looks reasonable over long term, since 3.50 was broken lower. 

  • bullregard

    Thanks… I like the bunch Mole gathered here :) When I feel I have something worth contributing I do it. It does not happen often though… :)

  • Skynard

    Correction over, that was quick, Geez!

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Ahem,
    now its two of us
    go-go

  • bdoone

    Stopped out 1497 of 1st Zero trade for +4 ES pts. 5/8 retrace of 1500-1492 move. Am happy!

  • bullregard

    Not looking good for my NG short now. I would cover a little above 3.40. Bummer…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Pervergence

    How about one of you hotshot traders start a system on C2 so we can subscribe and see what the reality is around here???……I would like to see people’s trading results.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Click my name. All my trades are there. Good, bad and very bad.
    Position sizing is a separate issue, and depends on you.

  • Pervergence

    Nice……..thanks for the info

  • Pervergence

    How do you set up a link…….I’d like to do the same




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