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Thursday Morning Briefing
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Thursday Morning Briefing

by The MoleFebruary 20, 2014

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The spoos have eroded a bit further overnight and it makes sense to look for possible support zones. On the Bollingers we are somewhere in the middle of it all but there’s a daily NLSL at 1,811.25 – still leaves a few more ticks to the downside.

The NQ already touches its NLSL and thus far it’s holding.

Looking at the actual cash indices we have possible 25-day BB support near 1826. Obviously the futures are already below it, so let’s see if that’s just an attempt to scare the children overnight.

The NDX also nearing its lower BB – here we are looking at 3643 for possible support.

Wheat is looking interesting this morning – very nice up trend here on the hourly with the 25-hour carrying price higher. There’s a NLBL at 620.25 and I will consider a ST long position if it climbs above it.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Ronebadger

    Thanks Mole!

  • newbfxtrader

    mole please update the daily zero.

  • newbfxtrader

    Thx boss.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    VWAP test time

  • SilverEagle

    ZL looks strong – not sure what’s going to make it drop 5 handles to get back there.

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted Dow 16115, prefer to short at 37, but entering a bit early to see how it goes.

  • Sean

    Not liking the looks of today, think I’ll sit this one out… but hopefully we complete the daily RTV-S setup today (ideally with a hammer), but I’d also be long above the high today since it is spanning two key inflection points today (100h & 200h sma’s).

  • Bun Dance Kid

    There’s your 37 – complete with Mole signal

  • Dyellowflash

    nope, only gotten the high print of 35.

  • Dyellowflash

    First target, again 16094, then we will see what follows.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Ah, close – my spread bet feed shows 16037.5 mid. I still haven’t found a good free source of realtime data to work with.

  • SilverEagle

    Your target to TP your short is 16094?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Zero has played like a trooper so far today

  • Dyellowflash

    yeah, 40+ points for a first target. Today is same as yesterday when I called for a double short at the very high print of the day, in that it triggered a very very difficult component of my trading system. This component which is level 3, i.e. the final level of my system is different from the first two levels in the sense that it got no operationalisation. Its only at the conceptualization level.

  • Dyellowflash

    Nearly there. 15 pts more to go… Squeeze the shit out! 😉 hahaha…. this part of the system is really pathetic.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Tentatively adding to shorts here as we dip below the zero line

  • Ronebadger

    Might we be forming a weekly and monthly RTV-S right now???

  • newbfxtrader

    Good call. Dont feed the leeches though….

  • Dyellowflash

    Target 16095 reached. I have TP-ed the 2nd fill from 35 n left with 40% from the 1st fill at 15.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Fair enough, but my track record should be caution for any leeches. I’ve lost count of the times when I was on the outside and vested too much truth in comments here, esp from Sky, only to come a cropper.. 😉

  • newbfxtrader

    You are doing fine now. Test of WVAP is likely after a divergence like we saw but best shorts are after failure of WVAP breach with zero below zero like yesterday.

  • Dyellowflash

    Dont worry if you have shorted after I had TP at 95. It should ideally go down there again one more time.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    I’m short-term covering my shorts on this small rebound but holding short too in readiness for next leg down

  • Sean

    Actually, it’s an RTV-L on the weekly if we close in the red tomorrow (the RTV-S timed out)… the monthly one is interesting, but I prefer to see the setups also interact with inflection points in some way, seems to reduce the risk of false signals…

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Excellent. Thanks. I’m at the ready and already sitting on good gains so far thanks largely to Z

  • Dyellowflash

    well, i have used the profits from this week’s trading to do something meaningful. brought 16k usd worth of spy puts for the first week of april.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    C’mon VWAP, Light My Fire…

  • Sean

    Isn’t it exhausting staring at the charts hoping price will do what you want?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Yes and it’s a hard habit to break. But if it pays the rent…

  • newbfxtrader

    If you keep this up you will break Sky’s record…..

  • Bun Dance Kid

    As for ‘hoping’ – I’m working on banishing that. I respectfully withdraw my outburst of partisanship in my above post – but that song is on my brain today.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    What record? Did he pay his rent? 😉

  • Sean

    Can’t argue with results… but over the long run I have a feeling a habit like that will eventually lead to burnout and/or blow-up…

  • Dyellowflash

    if this leg down still doesn’t cut my 95 line like butter, but held support, i would be clearing house and probably hedge with longs.

  • newbfxtrader

    Comments and number of trades. I dunno how much he made. Seemed like he was trading 1m charts or something.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    You’re absolutely right and it’s not something I plan to do indefinitely. At some point I want to use my learning experience to devise a more relaxed way of trading that works for me.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    400 comments in a year? don’t think so.
    but he is definitely accelerating!

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Thought you were going to say you’d adopted a Third World orphan

  • Bun Dance Kid

    400 is only a couple a day surely? Did you miss a couple of 0s?

  • SilverEagle

    Give a Third World orphan some SPY puts and he’ll eat for a day, teach him RBT and he’ll eat for a lifetime.

  • Sean

    That sounds like a good plan… unfortunately, the longer you trade that way the harder it will be to change (especially if you are being positively reinforced) and it will take an even bigger breakdown of some sort (loss of money or health) to force you to take the plan to change seriously… If you really don’t want to trade like this then it’s probably not a good idea to continue to reinforce the neuro-pathways for a reward system that has been perfected over billions of years to keep you doing exactly what you are doing, good luck trying to overcome that with logic, what is more likely is that your lizard brain will force you to rationalize why continuing to trade this way is really the best thing for you to do, in fact it was actually your plan the whole time… just something to think about if you really do plan to trade differently some day…

  • Bun Dance Kid

    I genuinely appreciate the comments, Sean. Thanks

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Now we watch to see if we hold above VWAP and above the zero line?

  • newbfxtrader

    And now you see why its better to short a setup like yesterday.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Yep, sure getting jerked around nicely today

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Rug pull time ? – EDIT – Disregard that. I saw something that flashed and then disappeared

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Bun Dance Kid

    There’s no answer to that

  • http://www.tomekfranzl.com tomek

    I also appreciate your comments. Very helpful in helping keeping me grounded/focused. Thank you Sean!

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Zero showing first signs of possible change of sentiment

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Maybe we’ll sit here a while, maybe we won’t, so here’s a musical interlude..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tkhGP2RpIg

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    i’m going to lunch.

  • momac

    wheat is up against the channel I talked about earlier this month around 620. if it makes it through there, it should be good until it runs up against the 100 sma that is drifting lower and almost joined up with a fib line.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Good timing – just as Zero gives a little wink 😉

  • Cravenmorehead2

    I see we have a new crew….

  • Cravenmorehead2

    GC approaching HOD

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Damn hipsters…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Justin Bieber’s bitch.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s how it goes – people come and go. And then are those gold gerbs – those are like a rash, you never get rid of them.

  • Cravenmorehead2

    SKY still around? Gerb is an institution

  • Cravenmorehead2

    s NQ….l GC

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sky is the one who disappeared a few days ago. He was very nice about it and I think it was due to personal issues. As you recall his logo was 333 and humorously he stepped aside 12333 posts. We miss him and hope that he will return in the near future.

  • Cravenmorehead2

    Wow…too bad….this is not an easy exercise…..

  • wandering196

    this was just on my twitter feed about women’s hockey

    Canada wins.
    By Rule, they must TAKE BACK BIEBER

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    That’s what I said this morning during my commute.
    He was in a blue prius and his vanity plate was BEARWGN.
    I kid you not.