Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

And the journey into the abyss continues over in the E-Mini. I have been tirelessly preaching the use of the 100-hour and 25-hour SMAs as your downside trend line. But for mysterious reasons this seems to have fallen on deaf ears, at least judging by what I’m seeing in the comment section (or maybe the disciplined ones don’t talk much). Seriously now – you just can’t help yourself, can you? Does all that futzing and adjusting benefit your bottom line? Didn’t think so – and it’s a point I have been making for over four years now. Please get with the program. Alright, let me climb down from my soapbox (Mole’s aren’t that tall) and let’s move on.

Interesting overnight session on the Forex front. The Aussie Dollar is getting killed, the Yen is getting killed, and the Euro is ramping – except versus the Dollar, which has been hanging on. That is extremely interesting to say the least. There was a nice little fake out drop yesterday, must have taken out boat load of stops – nasty!

The NZD/USD is wedged between hourly Net-Lines but stil below the 25-hour SMA. A breach higher here would get me long with a small position. Not my favorite FX contract though right now however.

USD/CAD – nice bounce there on the 100-hour. I am long here with a stop below.

Crude is now in climb mode as elicited by observance of the 25-hour SMA. Looking good so far.

Gold  looking interesting – it’s been trying to shake everyone off for three days now. In the past two hours we’ve been seeing a bit of a drop and I wonder if we finally get out of that compression zone now. Note that we are now solidly below both hourly SMAs. If you are short then those may be a good place for your stop.

Silver looking al ot more bullish as it continues to observe the 100-hour SMA. I say let’s continue to be long here, especially if it pushes above that NLBL at 32.685. Boy, silver is expensive these days – I remember picking some up for a few bucks per ounce.

Copper continues to run but it can’t hide as all the coiling up now comes to a point. Pick a direction, will ya? I’m pretty excited that this is happening near the 100-hour SMA as this could produce a very solid base. Let’s keep a close eye on this one, shall we? Once it breaks I will let you know, evil speculator honor! ;-)

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 15th, 2012 at 8:57 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • RacerXX

    Thanks Mole! Looks like some interesting inflection points coming.

  • I Bergamot

    Excellent, Mr Molecool

  • ronebadger

    ” I remember picking some up for a few bucks per ounce ”

    I remember getting $2.00 for each of my mercury dimes

  • Tronacate

    Gold is dropping with bucky……still short

  • Tronacate

    Nice moves on gold and silver…..

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Check out mining stocks or indices
    I kinda like GFI here, most of the other ones are falling safes

  • Schwerepunkt

    Falling safes, LOL. Wile E. Coyote.

  • Tronacate

    Gold was a perfect short on the 25 hour sma rejection……nice call mole

  • Schwerepunkt

    Philly Fed in two minutes. Fish or cut bait.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Ouch, -10.7

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    GLD – Oct S1
    165.70

  • ridingwaves

    Someone just turned on buy switch in miners..

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Best dealt with after landing
    Especially as these are filled with bouillon
    GFI is at the Daily lower 100 and 25 BB’s

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    re-shorted a bit more.

  • Tronacate

    Short ES at 25 hr sma rejection

  • Tronacate

    Any TDA today…..??

  • Skynard

    Selling NUGT puts:)

  • MrMargin

    Not looking like a TD.

  • Tronacate

    Need bucky to get on a roll here…..s GC sES

  • Tronacate

    Philly fed numbers not too pretty……FED running out of bullets it appears

  • Tronacate

    Took profits in GC

  • ridingwaves

    opens the way for more Twist bullets….they will extend it now…85 billion a month to but debt rollover..how sweet is that…buying crude here with ME starting to unwind faster…

    every picture tells a story don’t it….
    http://s8.postimage.org/o1nkk2y2t/Fed_Rate_Spx_500_71_current.jpg

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Took 1/2 profits from ES. hey – what’s that mole arrow doing there?? :)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Look at the December /CT move this am almost $2 in an hour
    took out the consolidation range of 3 weeks ago
    Above 100 & 25 DMA’s short squeeze I guess as contract roll is coming

    Switching to March contract

  • Tronacate

    s SI at 100 hour sma failure

  • Tronacate

    reshorted GC…….s GC s SI s ES

  • Skynard

    Long /ES on the Inverse.

  • Tronacate

    Took profits in ES
    stopped out GC and SI

  • Tronacate

    Will reshort SI if 100 hr breach

  • StrikeFirst

    Not useful for trading, but interesting nonetheless:

    “In the last 80 years, we’ve only seen one market decline the week after an incumbent is reelected. Stocks typically rally into year-end and Asset Managers worry that they will miss the move. When seasonal/historical trends like this fail, it is a major warning sign.”

  • ridingwaves

    Middle East noise really picking up steam here..buying dips in CL..

    Mole’s wet dream chart on exchange rate…
    http://s9.postimage.org/bbwpg9fin/DXPFChart.jpg

  • Tronacate

    Will reshort ES if lod breach

  • Tronacate

    ZB is(was) rolling

  • Schwerepunkt

    SPX 100-weekly MA is 1317. Just sayin . . . 

  • Tronacate

    s SI on 25hr rejection

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     True, but we are down for 6 weeks in a row. They might push it up next week to rope pple into the train. Through, the mkt is still missing a climatic selling to mark a short-term low.

  • Tronacate

    s ES on zero div

  • Tronacate

    added at lod breach

  • Skynard

    Head hunting going on it seems:)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     I tot it is a positive divergence? Price is lower but 0 is not. ?

  • ridingwaves

    any thoughts on why DAX is stronger than SPX right now and anybody shorting it? seems ripe and looks similar to 2008 pattern…with waterfall approaching…

  • Tronacate

    positions….s GC sSI sES

  • Tronacate

    Bucky getting on a roll

  • Tronacate

    Will add to SI short on breach of 100 hr sma

  • Schwerepunkt

    Last I knew, no oil wells in Gaza. Some gasfields offshore, but that’s not relevant. Only a 1% chance Gaza blows up into something material for energy markets. 

  • Tronacate

    Took profits in ES……holding GC and Si shorts

  • ridingwaves

    it’s just one match….lots of other ignition points out there…

  • Tronacate

    Because of that little blue arrow….

  • Tronacate

    Took profits in SI…..holding GC since it is the weaker

  • Tronacate

    Took profits in GC…….done for awhile

  • Tronacate

    SI wallowing around the 100hr

  • Joe_Jones

    Tronacate, you’re on fire today

  • Joe_Jones

    Is it me or today’s tape feels weird?

  • Schwerepunkt

    It’s trendy, that’s all.

  • I Bergamot

     Slow-motion crash

  • Tronacate

    Just have time to pay attention today….not always like that

  • rothstein

    what strike did you sell? just bought back calls I sold. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    The bearded bloviating bobble-head speaks at 1:20 pm.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Evil is as evil does.

  • ptosh

    IWM seems to have put in a daily bottom right at 76.29 (support and the 3.5 mo. low) and is currently bouncing.  Very slight and it is lunch hour, so caution.    smallish long from 76.30. 

  • ptosh

     stopped out.  this mrkt. looks saggy. 

  • Tronacate

    Took a mole slap to pay attention……no more fucking around……taking the setups……paying attention

  • itcomesupinwaves

    The AUD/USD ratio flipped today.

  • Tronacate

    If ES fails at the 25hr sma going short

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Closing out 2/3 of dead money precious metal shorts from last week

  • ds2

    SPX pulling into the 61.8 fib.  Could be a bounce point.

  • Tronacate

    s SI at 100 hour touch

  • Tronacate

    And the 25sma on ES just happens to line up with vwap…..or at least damn close

  • Skynard

    Holding long unless VWAP fails.

  • Tronacate

    flipped si….

  • Tronacate

    l SI at 100hr

  • Tronacate

    ES approaching 25hrsma

  • Tronacate

    SI above 25hr sma…..still long

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I guess it was a kiss of death.
    my how much things change in just a week

    http://postimage.org/image/sh1w04jd7/full/
    but this sell off can’t fall too fast, or it turns into yet another U turn to perhaps a ponzi blow-off new high.

  • ridingwaves

    The Wizard speaks
    Bernanke: Mortgage lending standards overly tight

    I would say he is full of Sh@%, 580 fica gets bought by FHA guidelines, foreclosure over 3 years old are not counted…….the problem is houses prices are too high Mr. Wizard…DTI and PTI are way out of whack..

  • Tronacate

    Took profits in SI just above 25sma

  • I Bergamot

     No kidding. I tried to buy a house about half a year ago. Believe me, I am qualified and all. 2 months later I was still jumping hoops for mortgage, decided to pull the plug. My old house is just fine. I don’t need this headache.

  • Tronacate

    Sell order in for ES just below 25hrsma

  • Tronacate

    I tend to agree…….now the banks are paranoid…….same with business loans

  • I Bergamot

     As far as prices – rentals are thru the roof. People pay 2x-3x my mortgage  to rent house in my neighborhood. I’m not talking about 500k houses, just “normal” stuff

  • ridingwaves

    Price fixing by the govt. never works…we will get another down leg in housing…The wizard is looking to reset subprime bubble..most qualified buyers have a house already…subprime is the way to build bubble…just like ABS paper..they started the auto subprime in 2010 and look how auto bubble has grown…I work in space and what the fed, treasury, congress and wall street have done to prop prices will eventually cause prices to plunge further….

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Same with commercial re
    A lot of loans are owner financed
    Can be quickly closed and rates can be 7-8%

  • Tronacate

    sES at 100hr…..we’ll see

  • I Bergamot

     Where is Milton Friedman, when we need one?

  • Tronacate

    Will add to es at 25 breach….

  • Tronacate

    Added to es shhort

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • pouquinhos

    Let’s make a good rebound today…

    Hurt a little, so…..put gas in the car and go faster…..UP
    http://spxinvestment.blogspot.pt/





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