Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The spoos started creeping above the 100-day SMA overnight which finally triggered my stop. I am now effectively long with a stop below the SMA as the odds now support a positive EOW and EOM candle painting. Price has spoken and for me it always has the last word.

To be crystal clear – this actually pertains to my medium term positions – taking a long here on a short term basis does not make sense. I hope there are no confusions about trading short term (i.e. swing trading or scalping) vs. daily or weekly trades. Granted, these types of definitions vary widely but in my book anything that closes out at the bell is a short term trade. Anything I keep for a day up to a week or two is a medium term trade. Long term trades span several weeks and theoretically can last years – personally I rarely keep anything running over two or three weeks these days.

AUD/JPY looking like a possible short if it starts dipping below the 25-hour SMA. Until that happens I’m long with a stop below. What’s complicating matters on the long side is that hourly NLBL just above which the two SMAs should push us toward. IF we get a short entry then I would go in with only half a position size as I would prefer to see at least the 25-hour falling, so be disciplined with your stop.

USD/JPY – I’m currently long with a stop below the 25-hour SMA. The odds are a bit lower here a i’s been running a bit sideways lately and perhaps this is a last kiss goodbye. If so I wouldn’t be short until we drop through the 25-hour. But the same concerns apply in that we want to see that one dropping to give us a bit more support overhead.

Silver seems to be in a really bitchy mood lately and we’re better keep a low profile. I’m starting to suspect a big seller active near that drooping diagonal and thus I’m short with a stop near 34. Should we breach that then I’d be happy to take on a long expecting a jolt cola induced ride higher. It’s a real shame they don’t make this stuff anymore – Red Bull is for posers.

Public Service Announcement: In case you missed it – you can now follow my updates on Google+. Please add me to your circle and be sure to be on the forefront of my evil market schemes.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 29th, 2012 at 8:53 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • ronebadger

    Thanks Mole!  I’m actually ahead of the curve this time, situated nicely for an upmove…watching closely, got my stops in…hopefully can sit back an watch the show…eying the 1420/25 area as possible trouble.

  • RacerXX

    Mole: are you all G+ now? (no Twitter updates)

    yeah wild ride on the silver goat

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No, I do the twitter but am expanding my realm. I suspect that Google+ will start encroaching on twitter turf and I want to be on the forefront of that. Also, Google switched over to Penguin early this year which changes how content is being scored. It’s all about authors now and it’s important that Evil Speculator increases its Google+ ranking. Hope this makes sense. 

    Hence it is now the patriotic duty of any self respecting stainless steel rat to add ES to his/her circle ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, I’ll cover that later today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t see major hurdles until 1341.

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks for the post and for clarifying that.

  • MrMargin

    There are people (apart from Robert Scoble) who actually use G+? I’m amazed!

  • AMCabrera

    going long usd/sek again.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Never underestimate the evil empire. Like facebook they’ll try to squeeze it down our throat at every turn. As I’m running a business I need to think ahead. Lead, follow, or get out of the way ;-)

  • captainboom

    Mole, did you mean 1441?

  • MrMargin

    Might happen, but Google has repeatedly failed at social. I was on G+ right from the start. There was almost nobody I personally knew on that service and the few people who were, didn’t actively use it. It’s still that way. Most other people on G+ appeared to fall into either of two categories: “Apple fanboys” or “People confusing G+ with LinkedIn”. So far, I remain unconvinced that this will work out for Google if they aren’t able to somehow boost user engagement on that platform.

  • Joe_Jones

    FYI. Daily SPX 50 sma at 1422.49, i.e at the volume hole. 
    Look out for possible negative div on 5 min zl and blue arrow at that level.

  • Joe_Jones

    AAPL stalled at D 200 sma

  • Joe_Jones

    Doesn’t look like a trend day so far

  • Joe_Jones

    Short EURUSD

  • Joe_Jones

    Yup. Bull trap.

  • fast and steady

    Bought my ewj puts.  Jan 11 @1.77 and 1.79 :)

  • Joe_Jones

    Fully short QQQ now

  • Joe_Jones

    Bucky is rising from the dead

  • Joe_Jones

    The exact opposite of yesterday’s. LOL!

  • Skynard

    Long /ES @ 1413

  • fast and steady

    Yup. Sometimes I go around the web reading opinions and 95
    % of what I read is dollar bearish. The contrarian in me is short the euro in a small way.

  • fast and steady

     Whattttttt? What are you seeing?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    probably a blue arrow, and then some.
    he’s pretty good. ;-)
    but he can turn on a microsecond.

  • AcoBrasil

    A lot of the stocks I am monitoring are hitting strong resistance levels on lower highs – mirroring AAPL. I’m going to see how the SPX handles the 100sma today before committing to any positions (I’m not a daytrader).

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    I am out of all my shorts. Probably got to call it a night due to over-exertion last night…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    and…pop.  spoos 1415.

  • fast and steady

    Boner or whatever his name is is holding a press conference in an hour. I know, I know, the news doesn’t matter…

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Good probabilities the multi day down move from Wednesday is over based on DeMark in 240 minute chart.
    I’m short the €, second one of the week from the 1.300+ price

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    Ahh, now longs and shorts stopped out. Its going to be another “stupid” day

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    cheer up, the Day is young.

    oh, Amateur hour over, btw.
    (not that you are an amateur, no, it’s ….i’ll shut up now.) ;-)

  • fast and steady

    spoos bear flagging. 

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     They will continue to shake the markets, until all “boners” gone from tee-vee and replaced by something benign. Where is Michael Jackson, when you need him?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     These days I run with amateur crowd. Severely under-capitalized.

  • Joe_Jones

    Good to hear. I’ve heard of DeMark, but I’m not familiar with his charts. 

  • Skynard

    Continued dollar weakness with a commodities/NAZ/RUT rally:)

  • fast and steady

     Experience tells me that he is very good at picking bottoms. Not so good at picking tops.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Echo echo echo to 1430 today?

  • MrMargin

    Well, they say there are two types of people trading at the open: stupid amateurs and smart pros. Lots of easy money to be made if you know how.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    not sure, this 10 am circus hour is giving me doubts.
    right side tops can be split in half, with a high before and after the time cutoff.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep and as Mole pointed out yesterday, this is a very emotional market.  

    Look at the oil price action yesterday and look at it today.  I came pretty close to getting stopped out of my long yesterday but didn’t because I had a wide enough stop.  

    Churn and burn baby burn.   :)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    wouldn’t that make you BobbyHigh?

  • Skynard

    Careful shorts, Rocket time:)

  • BobbyLow

    LOL  

    Nah.  I try to stay between BobbyLow and BobbyHigh but the name BobbyMedium doesn’t work. :)

  • ronebadger

    Copper up nicely today… maybe IT knows?

  • Skynard

    Final VWAP test.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    So potentially one today and tomorrow ?

  • Joe_Jones

    retesting the 60 min NLSL on AUDJPY and EURUSD

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    you mean rockeT time.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Yeah I looked at the /ES volume profile last night and looks like 1412-1418
    Which market seems to be filling in the bottom part of that now

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    CScott like to look at the last candle, I like to look at the last WIDE candle.
    (hopefully Ivan isn’t reading this and groaning on Vanatu)

    http://s17.postimage.org/x9q54mvfx/temp1.png

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    and with that, I’m driving into work.

  • Skynard

    Fakeout, full long the /ES

  • fast and steady

    Skynard “The Machine” Levine

  • captainboom

    Hourly /ES has two outside periods, and working on an inside.  Hourly Zero from last Friday to today gives me pause.  Any thoughts on that hourly Zero?

  • fast and steady

    WTF?

  • AMCabrera

    ja da range.

  • Joe_Jones

    Super Bucky to the rescue. Gerb should drive to work more often.

  • AMCabrera

    LOL!

  • Skynard

    Wow, who spilled the beans? Buying the dip:)

  • itslance

    Wow, hope you had a stop in place

  • BobbyLow

    Boner

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/10a0270c-2d80-4a3a-8fc4-a5911a3044fd/2012-11-29_1144.png
    pegged leg betsy. maybe not 1430-1380 range then it will be 1420-1370 range. Perhaps the great lie will slump hard towards 1.0300

  • ptosh

     easy there, bull durham.  this could get ugly.  big down move takes out intraday low on big volume. 

  • Joe_Jones

    Make sense on retest of ES 100 d sma

  • fast and steady

    DXY with a raging hard on thanks to Boehner.

  • BobbyLow

    Fucking Politicians Posturing 

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    I now this price pattern.
    It’s called “Balls in a Vise”

  • fast and steady

    The zero has not gone negative. Looks like a fakeout to me.
    Gap filled and we go back up. Those motherfuckers!

  • Joe_Jones

    As long as the 100d sma holds and zero remains flat 

  • Skynard

    Understand that, this looks to be a shakeout with buy volume to me.

  • AMCabrera

    lol pssh Im just watching team umizoomi with my son while letting my positions mature. “how does it work, how does it work” was the song they were just singing. 

  • fast and steady

     Just googled team umizoomi. Looks like fun.

  • AMCabrera

    pulling usd/sek from this morning hitting 200sma hourly.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, ride m cowboy:)

  • AMCabrera

    yea I like watching eine möhre für zwei when I get bored with this market and I do not need to touch anything.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Spoos, 1413.5 – F********ck

    (actually, I missed nothing, he he) – MA25 held.

  • AMCabrera

    taking half off the aud/jpy

  • Joe_Jones

    I think you forgot to switch off the lights back home. Why don’t go for a drive? ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ROFLMAO.

  • Skynard

    Flat but no div yet, showing higher lows is all. Needs to make a move to steer clear.

  • Skynard

    Price move coming based from ZL, looks like:)

    Lower panel diverging.

  • Skynard

    Stopped out for -3 and reloaded @ 1408

  • itslance

    How do you determine where to put your stops?

  • ptosh

    Thank you.  You seem to have a solid handle on daytrading the equities intraday.  I’ve been largely unsuccessful trying the same,.  currently short the IWM, which has been a beast lately.   Will be signing up for the zero soon.   

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yes.

  • fast and steady

     Looks like a fun way to learn German. It certainly beats the 4 hour lessons my parents put me through when I was 12. Now, that was torture.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • AMCabrera

    HAHA! I just googled it.

  • Skynard

    Was after a long entry today and snagged it at the first drop after a couple candles. Placed my stop just below that first green candle on the recovery @ 1410.

  • AMCabrera

    Yea, that is mainly why I watch it my son loves it. I plan to visit Germany sometime next year..Mmm maybe I should go to Spain instead and see Mole. Im gonna shake his hand.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/bb42cc17-f9f3-40b2-a921-c3bd4d034e24/2012-11-29_1241.png
    I would be careful with tight stops if you are short. Anyhow, failure here and we can call this a bring me wallace moment.

  • Joe_Jones

    and tell him that you love him face to face :-}

    (JJ ducks for cover)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ..better than Nighty night.

  • Skynard

    Ah, hourly:) Definately some div their. It’s been able to remain in pos teritory though. That could play out before the week is over or next week.

  • AMCabrera

    Lmao, oh going long usd/chf

  • Joe_Jones

    :D

  • captainboom

    Unlikely that I’ll be able to come out and play next week.  Traveling to China on business.  I wish I could guarantee that the markets would take a dump for you like they do when Mole travels, but I can’t.

  • AmazingLarry

    Day scalper alert. PSUN on the move. Earnings after the bell. Long off the 100 hr. 

  • Skynard

    ZL looks like full compression now:) Will remain long above the signal line. Think a short will develop over next few days.

  • Joe_Jones

    Yes, there is a nice wedge formed on the 5 min ES. 

  • fast and steady

    Rising wedge in eur/usd. I am short and will flip in a nanosecond if it goes against me.

  • fast and steady

    The bears have grabbed the ball and had better run with it fast.

  • Joe_Jones

    looks like it

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸





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