Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The Dollar has had its share of volatility yesterday but crept back toward its 25-hour SMA overnight. I’m short here with a stop above the SMA. Should the unthinkable in the form of a strong bid happen miraculously pushing us above the SMA then I’d take a long position. Yeah, I know – who am I kidding? We are so screwed…

Bonds – the 30-year is also kissing its 25-hour SMA, which as you can see has proven to be impenetrable for the past week. I’m short here with a stop above the falling SMA. Again, should my Earl Gray turn into Glühwein or if I see a push above 148’05 then I’d consider a long position.

Interestingly the 10-year is looking a bit more positive – more below for my intrepid subs:

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 13th, 2012 at 7:55 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • 1UnBiased

    Don’t fight the FED weak dollar policy: Jim Rickards interview
    http://www.facebook.com/CapitalAccount/posts/261929353932487

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Who says we have? You must be new here. Still frustrating to see the Dollar being destroyed – and I see it first hand as I live in Spain and earn in the U.S.

  • Ivan

     Perhaps you should charge in the new currency – SDR’s.

  • 1UnBiased

     Just a long time lurker. previous disqus HorneyBadger ;-) Hope you feel better today. Thanks for all you do.

  • newbfxtrader

    Jim Rickards is of the opinion that that could very well be the future reserve currency. But these things take a very long time. 

  • newbfxtrader

    The destruction happens during the boom phase not the bust phase. A glance at the dollar index will let you know as much. Yes we will have inflation way down the road but we are far from being done with the bust phase. Take a look at the boom phase from say 2000-2008 and see how the dollar went from 120 to about 72. Now after several rounds of QE we are above 2008 levels. Its complex. Velocity of money is very low.

  • Ivan

    As far as I am aware all international airfares have long been quoted in an international currency … and then converted to local … my former was a travel agent back in the 80′s.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Between 1912 and today the dollar lost 98% of its purchasing power. If you live for 50 years or more then this should very much concern you.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t think I respond well to the winter in Europe – may have to head back to L.A.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I am considering switching to Euros but most of my subs are located in the U.S. If the Dollar gets hit even more then I may have to raise subscription fees next year.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Anyway, is anyone trading? I rarely see discussion of my setups here. So I wonder…

  • Schwerepunkt

    I keep waiting for a reversion to the mean on the USD.CAD, somewhere around 1.25. 

  • Ivan

    The 52nd state of USA aka Australia has just started making hi tech plastic 10,000 vatu notes (about 100 bux) for here … same as ‘they’ do for some Asian countries … a clear sign that high inflation is seen to lie ahead … but since when do ‘they’ get it right.

  • Ivan

    This graphic also spells it out.

  • captainboom

    Yes.  Just don’t say much.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Winter in spain shld be quite mild? I am considering moving to europe too. Sigh, Hungarian girls r the most beautiful imo, but weather is terrible. Probably going to portugal or gibraltar.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Anybody have those worthless dollars? I’ll take some…:)

  • Ivan

    Following Mole’s trade ideas give you just the opportunity to do that … Nike!

  • AMCabrera

    Mole Im sorry. Its just that Im so freaking tied up in nzd shorts.

  • orderbook

    The latest orderbook info for USDJPY from Tickwatch and citfx

    USDJPY
    Y84.50/60 Medium offers
    Y84.20/30 Strong offers
    Y84.18 Tech 2012 Mar15 high
    Y83.85/4.00 Strong offers on approach/Barrier Y84.00
    Y83.70/75 Strong offers/Y83.75 Barrier
    Y83.67 Int.day high Asia
    Y83.44 ***Current market price 1205GMT Thursday
    Y83.25 Pullback low off Y83.67
    Y83.13 Int.Day low Asia
    Y83.00/2.80 Medium demand
    Y82.75/70 Stops
    Y82.60-40 Medium demand

    EURUSD orderbook states that 1.31 is a large offer waiting with stops above. The full level 2 market depth orderbook available at tickwatch and citfx. No links as not allowed.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     I am always mindful of your setups, but i don’t trade all the markets you follow. I do trade Dollar and noticed that when our analysis are in sync I usually make money.
    As for discussion, I wouldn’t dare…lol

  • AMCabrera
  • orderbook

    Yes nearly. But is that retail orderbook? And please let me know where can I find those nice colored schemes? 

  • orderbook

    If thats retail, then you need to do the exact opposite, while if it is institutional orderbook, then you need a different strategy. Citifx and Tickwatch and Reuters Eikon provide insti orderbooks which I use.

  • itcomesupinwaves

    Now everyone thinks this will go higher.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/6364e686-c451-430e-bee6-db65413fae01/2012-12-13_0951.png

    well it is from a market maker its a secret. And the usd/jpy fits in line with your description, fits with the “institutional orderbook”

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Silver is holding opening range. Thats not bad. No failure allowed here, as its already in my stop zone

  • AMCabrera

    …what da

  • orderbook

    It does. Well no chance then the secret might be revealed? :)

  • Skynard

    GRPN cranking it, pulling out:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    USD.CAD daily is sitting on ichisupport.

    http://screencast.com/t/rxMSfgrsAa

  • Curiousmind3861

    which pair is that? no sell order at all??

  • bdoone

    Republican speakers to discuss the ‘cliff’ (again) in 23 mins; 11am..WTF.
    Can’t these guys just shut their piehole.

  • Schwerepunkt

    They can’t help themselves. They’re addicted to the attention. Plus, foot-in-mouth disease is no joke.

  • itcomesupinwaves

     EURAUD

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah Bernanke is trying hard to trash the last 2%….Its not easy though.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Yep still got cad/yen long, no cocoa tho
    Patient with aud/usd and wheat

  • Joe_Jones

    Last 60 min spoos candle is rather bearish. Plus we are back below VWAP and under the hourly 25 sma. Next stop at hourly 100 sma and volume hole @ ES 1420?

  • Curiousmind3861

    Thanks, I guess EUR is about to tank then :P

  • ridingwaves

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

    8 billion less liquidity for spy….hee..hee..hee

  • Skynard

    Long /ES @ 1426.5, there is the trigger:)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Why do you people watch this garbage? You know that it’s basically the same people who publish GDP, inflation and unemployment? If they can go back and restate years of GDP (it happened a year or two ago), don’t you think they can restate years of QE.
    “Oops, sorry, there is really no money. What? NY Fed? O, its just a clerical error”

  • ridingwaves

    ummm ok…it’s a little less liquidity in the system, so far it’s paid off at 66% of temp. operation sell days are good for a down move. I know my people are aware of govt. fudge..it has lots of nuts…I put it up there and the market is down…

    stop whining…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Sorry mate, nothing personal.
    I just love to stir-up this topic. Always makes for interesting discussion.
    Thanks for info

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    SPY dividends, you be the judge.

    http://s12.postimage.org/eue7sudvx/temp1.png

  • Skynard

    If SPX support does not hold will be putting up some shorts:) Good place for it, we will see.

  • newbfxtrader

    You have been on fire my friend. What is Santa bring you this year?!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not pertinent to trading though. I’d prefer to see setups from you guys. But I guess I’m the only one who’s trading?

  • Skynard
  • newbfxtrader

    I would not be long Aussie at these levels. Even against the Euro. You are better off shorting aud/usd.

  • newbfxtrader

    Nice! I love it in black though.

  • Schwerepunkt

    That Ichisupport I mentioned earlier on USD.CAD daily held and we’ve turned higher. :)

  • saltwaterdog

    Don’t give up on cocoa… was long ahead of the setup posted here yesterday, and while the 25 and 100hr sma’s have not been good signals we have held the 200dma yet again and the TL support from the Dec11 low.  Battling the 20 and 50dma with positive momentum bias (rsi, macd, and stoch) on the hourly chart– i’m adding on a breach of the 20d as I think (for you EW guys) we just put in a wave 2 low

  • Skynard

    /ES paiting a floor by the looks of it:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Subs – please check your email.

  • Skynard

    Full position long /ES, now ZL needs to getty up!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    (Skynard pounces)

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks Boss. 

  • wandering196

    thanks

  • Curiousmind3861

    GBP plunged while other pairs just stair stepping down…why?

  • itcomesupinwaves

     Three pushes up, trendline break and backtest were all clues.

  • Joe_Jones

    Well, if the volume hole can’t stop the down move, maybe the daily SPX 50 sma will do it. Currently at 1415.74

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Just come back from meeting and booo – stopped out EEM, MOO, SMH, SLV, SIL. Drinking coffee for all , except SLV. He-He
    Edit: now market can rally hard

  • Skynard

    Still long, we are at a bounce point here. If 1420 fails will pouce short:)

  • FSUinArizona

    I am a sub, but can’t seem to get what I pay for!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    AUD/JPY broke 88 AND is under the 25ma.
    game over man, game over. (sarcasm)

  • newbfxtrader

    I pay in Euros so I dont miss anything. jk…

  • newbfxtrader
  • newbfxtrader

    Alright everyone pitch in and buy Mole a ticket to somewhere so the markets can safely crash…

  • newbfxtrader

    Only if you get out of your place. I am not buying any breakouts at these levels…

  • bdoone

    And the 100d is 1414.73

  • Joe_Jones

    True. Forgot about that one. It’s a good place to close positions and reassess.

  • Joe_Jones

    Vrooom, vrooom. This needs to come with an autobahn

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    But who’s going to fly it, kid! You?

  • Joe_Jones

    Do I look like AMC? ;-)

  • amokta

    Rent-free vacant property in Belise, complete with one missing neighbour…..  :-)

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/caebda74-0a27-4f56-bacb-a491ad7d9c5e/2012-12-13_1344.png

    actually, this has been me lately with my nzd and aussie shorts. But hey thanks jj for the compliment!

  • AMCabrera

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlNd4Tn8obU
    But I just walked in and loaded up the charts…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    not this video again. deja vu.
    wait.  The Agents are at the Door!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    my mom had one, light blue.
    highly recommend.  I use to drop my kid brother off at school, how demoralizing.

  • AMCabrera

    you are right. You mentioned it being dangerous. Now im not excited. I cant remember when I posted it though was it last spring?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    the memory is the second thing to go. ;-)
    yes, I believe.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    ok.  off to lunch.

    remember, it’s all BULLSHIT.

    well, except for Mole’s commentaries.
    (you didn’t think I came here for the awesome top calling did you?)

  • AMCabrera

    dg. aud/jpy makes me kinda of hot.

  • newbfxtrader

    Shes got some claws lately careful. But yeah I cant blame you for trying…

  • ridingwaves

    A little less liquidity equals a lot more action

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvlxRvhCB_A

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Classic H&S on 3days/30min ES.
    I figure 1424es neckline

  • Joe_Jones

    closed shorts. Wait and see mode for now

  • Skynard

    Wow, this thing needs to recapture 1420 or the Xmas rally will have to wait:)

  • Skynard

    ZL finally resolving.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Was long es at the bottom, picked up some silver for oversold bounce. or too oversold until it wont bounce anymore.

  • Skynard

    Marines have entered the building:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸




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