Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Quite a bit of movement on the FX (and commodities) side but I found three little piggies worth looking at. Here’s the AUD/JPY still making up its mind – we are long above the 100-hour and short below the 25-hour. In between it’s no-man’s land for now.

CAD/JPY busted across both short term SMAs. I am long right now but will consider a short if we drop below the 25-hour again. On the long side the 100-day should act as support in the coming hours (as it’s going to move sideways for a while).

USD/CAD already below its 25-hour – short here with a stop above the hourly NLSL (which was also breached). And if we see a reversal I’d be long above the 25-hour.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 20th, 2012 at 9:05 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • AMCabrera

    yea im waiting for the usd/cad to finish the bullshit I have a buy order ready above the 25sma hourly

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    So you’re expecting a snap back?

  • AMCabrera

    I do. But lately I have felt like a graham summers Kaiser.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I’m looking at grains knifing lower, busting  BBands. Tried a long via JJG – stopped out, but looking for reentry. I have nothing to short them with (like short etf), but they can really fall big.
    “Santa Silver Bullet” is a really nasty one.
    But whats most amazing is all this with Dollar falling.
    Correlation – shmorelation

  • AMCabrera

    the aud/jpy is gripping that 25sma hourly too. I took out my sell order when it was triggered overnight I have replaced it again at 88.00

  • AMCabrera

    whats that thing called expansion of the range? check out the 4hr chart for the usd/cad

  • Skynard

    OMG! Silver! Will buy more Jan calls:)

  • AMCabrera

    yea, do you know how many are long that devils metal.

  • Skynard

    Stacking up calls this morning!

  • itslance

    And I just got reminded why I don’t hold equities overnight.

  • Skynard

    Futures/currencies is where it is at Bro! Screw equities!

  • newbfxtrader

    Sentiment not as low as yen. We could see 28. I will buy some physical there.

  • BobbyLow

    I hear ya.

    I dumped my only 2 Long Equity positions yesterday because I didn’t want them subjected to the current Political BS overnight.  

    OTOH, my Forex Positions have their stops – trade all night long and are very rarely subject to knee jerk reaction Gaps up or Gaps down that happen with Equities that make you say WTF? 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, that did not take long…

  • Skynard

    /ES 1430 should hold, 30 pt ramp comimg:)

  • itslance

    I’d love to, but the mobile platforms don’t support futures/currencies (at least that I’m aware of) and I have to trade from a mobile platform at the moment.

  • Skynard

    Sure they do, do it everyday on TOS mobile:)

  • itslance

    I hope you’re right.  I could sure use a big move right now.

  • itslance

    No kidding?  I use Mobile Trader, which I thought was the same platform, and it says they don’t support futures/commodities at the moment

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    Me too…come to papa…

  • MrMargin

    Short /ES, short /HG

  • captainboom

    Hourly NLSL at 1431.

  • Skynard

    Yep, see that. It’s a fakeout:)

  • Skynard

    ZL does not lie usually:)

  • bdoone

    Looks like the ES 25hr sma is right there also at 1431.50

  • MrMargin

    Covered both, lost 3 pips on /ES, took a few on /HG. Doesn’t look like it will break.

  • Skynard

    /SI 30 level should hold as well.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • newbfxtrader

    28 is where I would try some longs…

  • captainboom

    Are you basing the fakeout statement on the ZL not confirming the drop?  So far, you are correct.

  • Skynard

    Yes, that and the volume:)

  • Pervergence

    Closed my other half on SI short……

  • newbfxtrader

    Plenty of Forex platforms offer android and ios mobile applications.

  • Pervergence

    Is 30 more of a magic number than 31 27 22 21 ???   It could keep going well beyond the margin call if you are on the wrong side.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Short euro on that hourly IB fail
    Longer charts like 3 & 4 hour seem to be having change in character from price action past 10 days which are flags and pops in early morning US

  • ridingwaves

    NG might still be worth a ride…big cold coming to the country…inventory lower..

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    priced in.

  • MrMargin

    Regarding SI:Two days ago CoT data was still in the upper half of the range. Could fall a lot further before a bottom is formed. We just broke the 200d SMA and price is now embedded in the BB which means it’s in falling knife mode. Next support on the weekly can be found at 26.3 and monthly at 25.6. Shorting on a touch of the 200d from below will be a good play.

  • Pervergence

    Now you’re talking…….thanks for the nice analysis

  • ridingwaves

    Damn u evil gerb..I knew you were puxtapawny phil in drag…

  • Skynard

    That could very well be, anticipating a short squeze before that happens though:)

  • omelette

    Ameritrade?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    ..could fall further.
    some Silver cycle & subcycle analysis.

    not sure if you rats are into beyond today viewpoints.

    http://s11.postimage.org/voo3n3qyr/silver_cycles.png

  • itcomesupinwaves

     There’s a gap at 28.28 for the short term bouncers.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Contracting triangle just breaks downward.  Middle trend line is also broken.
    … But strangely enough there is an arrow?
    Anyway, taken profits. 6pts (shorted and rebalanced 2 times) is good enough for me.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • Skynard

    1430 back test, buy point:)

  • Ivan

    TeamViewer is a great prog to control your base pc … and hence trade remotely.

  • ridingwaves

    Just go back a year ago, same timeframe and we saw a similar smackdown in precious metals …then look at the end of Jan. 12…right back to where it started….

    looks very similar..big houses are short, driving it down for end of year profit instead of loss while buying out of money calls on the cheap…

    will buy in heavy after xmas…

  • ronebadger

    reverse H&S?

  • Skynard

    Don’t see that, following that TL on the 5 min ZL followed by the div:)

  • itcomesupinwaves

     yeah I don’t mean for a long term hold

  • itslance

    Going long DFS

  • Skynard

    Yes

  • Skynard

    Trading futures on it right now.

  • Skynard

    Run with the bull!

  • AMCabrera

    well I just walked back in…and I see I was triggered.

  • ronebadger

    5min ES, since neck started at 7:10 today…need to break neck on the upside, past 1435 (not much of a rev-H&S, though)

  • omelette

    yeah i have no issues trading futures on it either. Except for the charting the scale is all whacked now that they made it look better. Makes it hard to see actual price levels.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

     maybe gold and silver selling is by all those who thought world would end tomorrow..and now they need the cash! sorry!

  • Skynard

    Have not figured out how to turn the password protection off when you make your trade.

  • Skynard

    Lol, they want to take cash with them:)

  • Skynard

    ZL 5 min wound tight:)

  • Skynard

    Think the MM’s will make foolery out of this EOW thing!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are STILL not a sub, are you? Because if you were then you would know what the P&F target was – which I posted about weeks ago.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, place your bets:)

  • badflightrisk

    Forecast shows it too

  • itslance

    When does Santa get here? :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LMAO :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I love it how it’s 3 degrees colder at night – snort!!!

  • Skynard

    T-1 min:)

  • Skynard

    One last VWAP test before………………Boom!

  • newbfxtrader

    Ultimate leech. I dont think you are going to see a penny from him!

  • newbfxtrader

    Probably waiting for the “cliff deal” then rocket up and crash!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     shorted.

  • Skynard

    Oh ya? Something going on today?

  • bdoone

    Just in time for Boehner press conf. in a few mins.

  • newbfxtrader

    Live now. Boehner baffle with BS…

  • Skynard

    Flatliner

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     right, i hav taken off 2/3 of the short – such a boring day, i dont mind the extra 2.5 pts while watching youtube drama.

  • AmazingLarry

    Just as a review from Mole’s P&F post last week or so (went back and looked up the numbers)
    /GC: bearish 1560
    /SI: bearish 26.5

    Premiums on physical right now are friggen ridiculous. 

  • ridingwaves

    paper market is rubbish…if the libor can be manipulated for decades…you get the idea….

  • AMCabrera

    Well, if it were natural we could have something like the weather channel that nails with very high accuracy what the numbers will be for the day. Nothing about markets are naturally occurring.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Stopped out twice. Tough game. Last try.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Great – thanks a lot for giving it away to the leeches (cough_evil-gerb-cough).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    meaningless

  • ridingwaves

    I doubt it…




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