Tik Tok

No surprises today – or were there? Those VIX buy signals rarely disappoint – and if you must know we are now only one step away from confirmation.

Don’t stop, make it pop
DJ, blow my speakers up
Tonight, I’mma fight
‘Til we see the sunlight
Tick tock on the clock
But the party don’t stop, no
Woah-oh oh oh
Woah-oh oh oh

Don’t stop, make it pop
DJ, blow my speakers up
Tonight, I’mma fight
‘Til we see the sunlight
Tick tock, on the clock
But the party don’t stop, no
Woah-oh oh oh
Woah-oh oh oh

I have it on good authority that Banana Ben is blasting that tune all day over at the Fed ;-)

Cheers,

Mole

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 1st, 2010 at 6:17 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Wow .. still no comments

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Maybe they don't like the song…

  • amokta

    How come the lady always plays the dimwit in these films – isnt that policially incorrect?
    http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7636089/

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BINGO.

    for any determined bears – there must be one out there, maybe.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_qaDYY5etY&feature=related

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “On second thought, I want to see a close above 1207.43 to confirm uptrend, either today or tomorrow, provided that the SPX does not close below 1186.93 today.”

    Good Call Fearless.
    Close missed it by [that] much. (1206.07)

  • amokta

    Minor point – the song seems to be blocked for UK (some copyright issue c/o youtube/Vevo)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How come the dudes always play the dimwits in U.S. commercials?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You're not missing much…

  • Schwerepunkt

    Was away all day today. Buying more rental property. There will always be renters.

    I see the market correction has been replaced by an erection, and the bull beats on. I guess, 1225 area is next stop and then we'll see.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The dudes always play the dimwits because they want dudes to be dimwits. How come they want dudes to be dimwits?

  • amokta

    Never noticed that (here in UK), but will take a closer look!

  • raised_by_wolves

    The VIX closing at intraday highs (not counting the first minute) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/d82b35ea-65a4-481f-840c-174fc29f8545/00002686.png

    . . . actually makes it easier for tomorrow's daily close to be further inside the BBs, confirming a buy signal.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/87871011-f53a-4571-9400-f993a0d59ac2/00002687.png

  • Eva S

    Try this – Rihanna is much better
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0CGsw6h60k

  • raised_by_wolves

    Repost: I don't watch TV anymore. When I did, I noticed that men, especially fathers, were usually portrayed as the dummies. That was probably the pendulum swinging the other way from how it used to be when James Bond was Sean Connery. I don't really care about it anymore. If you don't want to be programmed, you simply don't watch TV.

  • Eva S
  • 99er

    TF
    Was today just another backtest on the Russell futures?
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/tf.html

  • raised_by_wolves

    I listened to both Mole's posted vid and your linked one. Predictably, I strongly disliked both. Ke$ha and Rihanna both sound commercially produced in a bad way. My first reaction was: “I could make songs like these on my Mac and just hire hot girls for the video.” Second: “No, I'm not going to make music that I myself couldn't listen to.” Third: “Yuk, this is the audio equivalent of fake boobs.” Final: “Real ones are so much better.”

  • Eva S

    You just have no taste, Wolfie! Rihanna is *the* best. :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    I've never heard that song, yet I knew exactly when the guitar was going to kick in. In my opinion, it's too formulaic just like that Ke$ha and Rihanna shit.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The best musicians improvise. Show me Rihanna doing 3 minute, 5 minute, and 8 minute versions of this song and perhaps an extended 13 minute version, and I may change my mind.

  • Thunder44

    Nice lead in video mole,describes the market well.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    RIP Free Market.

    Welcome to the FED clearing house – Wall St. Neither a Bull nor a Bear market, just a laundering system for white collar criminals.

    http://goo.gl/SqXU8 and http://goo.gl/L13Wa

    I had alot of clever friends at this Blog a few years ago who had assesses the situation and come up with the correct answer – Mole was one of them, but now… where did they go – they got cleaned out by desperate criminals who were singing “Keep your hands off my stash”. How much was needed to prove us wrong – 3 Trillion Dollars – It's not even a number – for fuck sake.

    Us market sellers were wrong, wrong, wrong, yeh right; and the middle class just took it up the arse for centuries if this plays out without consequence. I was conned out of my 2009 Put positions by FED wankers who felt they had the mandate to dip in to future generations pockets. They need to be treated like Hilary is treating Wikileaks – As Lepers. The SEC is hunting Inside traders at the moment – what a joke – just another diversion, a sacrifice to appease the easily fooled masses while the true inside traders are left controlling the Worlds future trajectory – more than likely poised at the end of a missile.

    Today all the talking heads are on about retail traders being butchered and how technicals and fundamentals?? are Bullish and nothing has changed. The damage that has been done with the FED painting a floor at 1175 is that the previously absent retail traders are going to come in with a vengeance and push this tape to infinity and… The end result, they will be fleeced again.

    For now 5 minute currency charts is where I'm at and the AUDJPY made a screamer to resistance and has bounced back this morning. Will it break above 81.5 or fall back to 79.2, this will tell me alot over the next few hours or days. If it moves above 82 I may join the Talking Heads. The fact that it has fallen off 82 while the S&P 500 has broken above 1200 without it still leaves a question mark as there is a definite divergence; as I write the AUDJPY has continued it's move away from it's descending trend line.

  • Eva S

    I think she has a talent and everything about her is real. Except for the hair. LOL

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Good question – to contentious a answer to reply here.

  • amokta

    Probably not my genre of music, but she's obviosly got a good voice. May she also does other styles of song that i would like! I like the naturally red hair
    Anyway good nite all!

  • amokta

    confession – i have a small short into tomorrow, lets see.
    'By mistakes we learn' – motto of the day

  • raised_by_wolves

    I knew it! You've been acting guilty since market close. ;-)

  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves
  • Schwerepunkt

    What exactly is the red line?

  • amokta

    I want to prove myself wrong:)
    Goodnite all

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm not sure exactly. Fed buying? Fed lending? Fed buying indirectly through lending? Something like that? I borrowed it from Zero Hedge.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/whipsaw-wednesday-–-dollar-down-market-record-stimulus

    Even if the article reads like the drivel from Krugman as AR15AU says, this chart is far from worthless.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Does anyone here have access to POMO volume cluster? I would really like to get future updates on this indicator?

  • Fearless

    Best hope that I don't f— you over tomorrow. ;)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, I saw that two days ago – trying to figure out how Hanna gets the data. Maybe he's doing it manually. If you figure it out please let me know.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_VQS4ZCDYRZDCP4SPYFVDCICYGA Bad Boy

    Fearless, you mentioned 1.3110 on EURUSD in the previous thread. It seems to be finding resistance at that number. Can you share your rationale? Thanks.

  • Biowolf

    Nice post , Mole. Are you alright ?

  • chronographics

    Mate you wanna look at the ones they do in NZ (maybe not ) made out to be total asses/losers or stupid. I just hate it. try to pre-record as much as I can then skip the ads or just view the sky no ads stuff. No wonder this world is all fu..ed up. :-(

  • convictscott

    Not like you to pimp the competition mate ;-) BTW I bought his guide to fed days, and it was money well spent.

  • raised_by_wolves

    For those unaware POMO stands for Permanent Open Market Operations and it is how the Fed goes into the open market to buy (or sell) treasury securities. The net effect of this buying is an influx of cash into the system. It appears a portion of that cash makes its way through the banking system and into the stock market. It also appears that the net effect of all this Fed buying is a positive influence on the stock market. Conversely, when the Fed sells securities in the open market then it is pulling money from the system. This appears to have a possible negative influence on the stock market.
    Follow Mole's link for more.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Sure tells the truth.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Although one of my first thoughts was that this could be an elaborate joke, my current thinking is that Rob Hanna has created a custom indicator using data from the Permanent Open Market Operations Historical Search, which you may have already taken a cursory glance at . . .

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?fuseaction=showSearchForm

    . . . modified to show the cumulative effect of POMO clusters, not just individual POMOs.

    He says, “Either Tuesday or Wednesday we should see the 20-day running total as shown on the bottom indicator exceed the highest levels in 2009.”

    By “20-day running total,” does he simply mean adding the previous 20 days without averaging them?

    Hmm, I'll try to figure this out.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Is anyone alright? I mean, we're all going to die, Biowolf. We're all going to die.

  • Biowolf

    Wow, that´s news to me.

     

    On Dec 2, 2010, Disqus <> wrote:

    <div class=”replyBody”>

    </div>

  • Hungry_Joe

    CS, have been following the same trade of soup + one on silver. Don't know if I will take it, but still.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Worse – you are already dead but nobody bothered to tell you.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I actually thought this was a pretty good report. In short: The bears slipped on a banana peel and the bulls are going to ramp this thing up their asses POMO style all through X-Mas.

    Woah-oh oh oh
    Woah-oh oh oh

    More clear now?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It's a fancy way of saying 20-day MA – yes.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I man enough to link to a good chart, cs – we're all in this together.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LMAO!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That's easy ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And always remember who pointed you towards POMO operations WAY before anyone else. My first post on the subject was in fall of 2008 – ZH didn't even exist back then ;-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    I wrote this in an email to my brother who was a finance major and now has an entry level finance job. He thinks I'm a nut. After helping him top tick a stock though (I know, I'm not supposed to do that since if I had fucked up I would been eternally discredited), I have gained a little credibility with him. Now, I'm trying to use this New York Times article you've linked to gain a little more credibility. I mean, besides the specific numbers, most of the article I have already written myself in several emails over the last couple years. How does this sound? Should I send it, edit it, or just forget it?

    . . . .

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/02/business/economy/02fed.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

    Whether you agree or disagree with the Federal Reserves actions, it is no longer an argument that the markets are manipulated:

    “I think our actions prevented an even more disastrous outcome,” said Donald L. Kohn, who was the Fed’s vice chairman during the crisis. Without the Fed’s help, he said, “liquidity would have dried up even more than it did, asset prices would have fallen even more than they did, and economic activity and employment would have fallen further and faster then they did.”

    If you reflect back on congressional hearings a year or two back, whereas most other congressman were unaware or seeming unaware, Alan Grayson was aware that the Fed was doing currency swaps with other banks, and Grayson thought it was beyond the authority of the Federal Reserver if not outright illegal. So, Grayson grilled Bernanke about it. Bernanke's response was something along these lines: “You don't know what you're talking about. We've done activities like this before. Within the Federal Reserve, there is precedent for this action. Remember, Congress gave control of monetary policy to the Federal Reserve in, what?, 1914. Congress doesn't need to know the details. All you need to know is that, as always, we have things under control.” In other words, the Federal Reserve will operate above the law if needed to save the financial system or do whatever else they think is important.

    And it was needed and the financial system was saved (for the time being). Bernanke (at least temporarily) saved all the big player's assets and asses including foreign Central Banks and international corporations as well as American corporations.

    According to this New York Times article, the Federal Reserve extended a total of about $9 trillion in short-term loans to 18 financial institutions alone. I pretty much already knew all of this thanks to Zero Hedge, The Market Ticker, and other independent news sources, but now it is officially confirmed by the corporate media that the Federal Reserve pumped trillions upon trillions of dollars of liquidity into the system. (Some of that liquidity spills into the stock market). Assuming that it is only a liquidity crisis that the world was facing, is facing, and will be facing, the Federal Reserve has everything under control. Of course, intelligent, no-bull-shit traders like Karl Denninger have written persuasively that there isn't just a liquidity crisis, but there is also a solvency crisis, which cannot be solved so easily.

    I noticed that the New York Times makes this sound like it's all in the past. They use the past tense throughout that article. ZeroHedge, however, has published all the raw data. From what I've seen of the raw data so far, it is evident that not all the money has been paid back to the Federal Reserve. Institutions like Pimco still have billions of dollars to use at their discretion. What do you think they're doing or going to do with that money? They are buying assets in the market that they think will yield them a greater return than the near zero interest rate the Federal Reserve has charged/not charged them.

    Also, POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) is not over! There remains an open door for these many of the finacial institutions to continue borrowing from the Federal Reserve at near zero rates to try to make higher rates anyway they can. That usually doesn't involve lending to American families and small businesses. It means playing the markets. If that sounds risky, well, the good news is that these financial institutions have privileged knowledge and high frequency trading working for them. They should be able to outperform the markets, and as long as the markets continue trending up, everything is good (for now).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Aaaah – at least SOMEONE got my post. THANK YOU!! :-)

    1+

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Pretty simple – I started to boycott ANY product/company that makes guys look like idiots. Sad to say that the list got pretty long but I'm sticking to it. Those fucking commercials is one reason why men in America are being treated like assclowns by chicks these days. Two decades of strategic brainwash has made its mark.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Because you are a girl.

  • raised_by_wolves

    You mean, “I'm spiritually dead”?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Because a society of emasculated men is easier to control.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sucks…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The sad thing is that I listened to this song in a Simpson's episode and couldn't get it out of my head. This is usually not my style of music (by far) and I felt the same way about it being fake and engineered. But in the end I looked into myself and realized that some part of me liked the tune and that I should not be a hypocrite by pretending to not like it. You know what I mean? Sometimes some piece of shit comes across your plate and you somehow wind up liking it. Go figure…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Wow, if amokta is a girl, that changes everything between me and him, er her.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole just did it for you.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hey, is Elven acting like an emasculated man by saying, “too contentious an answer to reply here”?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Ah, fuck it hell, maybe I'll watch this music video a second time. After all, I missed the “don't stop, make it pop” references to the market the first time. You wouldn't mind if I mute it though, would you? ;-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    But we don't, at least I don't, take this news seriously. I mean, I'm always fading this news that I'm going to die.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    I remember it well, but 3 Trillion Dollars of POMO – who'd of thought the extent of their desperation to maintain their lifestyle! Maybe just me, as it seems, from what I read, everyone else was clever little beavers and had them nailed.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah.

    There were five failed attempts to close the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 11,000. Market manipulation? Yes, but so what? What matters is the breach didn't happen.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/73f790f6-6d71-46ac-b970-168501cd31f3/00002690.png

  • raised_by_wolves

    Or do you mean, “I'm a zombie bank?”

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Good news, I cut a deal with Breakpoint Trades they are allowing me to post the full-on not watered down version of their stock market newsletter.

    You get it for free, visit Hawaii Trading for the link!

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/12/full-paid-newsletter-for-free-from.html

  • chronographics

    Good idea mole, wonder though if we could take it a step further. I mean these companies are not aware you (now me) are boycotting their products. WHat about a website that lists products to be boycotted and maybe the numbers of people who are doing it.. just an idea but it makes me mad. off tomorrow night to the fatherland back a week later will sign up again when I am back – and trading properly again. Your posts are definitely worth the few bucks :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    And if I say, “no dis intended toward Elven,” am I acting like an emasculated man?

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Do it

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hey Elven, we should give ourselves the homework assignment to start a fight with a stranger . . . and lose.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    It's a movement and is why so many young Women and not so young Women believe they have achieved Nirvana by being drunk 24/7 among other things.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Ugh, it seems we are all programmed, Elven, though some (e.g. Ke$ha wannabes) perhaps more than others.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Done, and I don't care what he thinks of me anymore.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    I do that already – positive expectation is my homework!

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    OMG you didn't did you!?

  • chronographics

    CS, Hat off to you being short all the way from there, we have had the odd rally ie to 1.3760 odd that would have faked a few out. No harm in taking partial profits if we see a decent rally you can always scale back in. It does look a little extended on the downside for the moment. But your rules work so keep following them……

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No spamming!!!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Without sound, Ke$ha is fun to watch at first, but, by the end, my reaction is, “Come on, Ke$ha, why keep waking up in a bath tube? You're wasting your fucking life on the party scene.” But then, I think about myself, and how I'm wasting my life though in different ways (e.g. drinking alone night after night instead of partying).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh, are you splitting hairs now? ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Geee – more than 20 words – my guess is he never read it.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Shit, you're right. Oh well.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hell yeah!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Pm + Pm-1 + . . . Pm-9

    produces the same shape chart as

    Pm + Pm-1 + . . . Pm-9 / 10

    eh?

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    On ya and by the way it's Official it's not a liquidity crisis it's definitely a Sovereign solvency crisis as told by our local Australian cable business channel and I believe him because he's not on CNBC.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves

    Nevertheless, “buy the fucking dip.”

    http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7636089/

    (Just make sure to convert your paper profits into hard assets if you can).

  • convictscott

    Its been quite nerve racking for me, adopting a new style of trading for the “price embedded in the outside of the bollinger band” is emotionally very difficult. The ruleset is very simple. As new swing highs are formed I move the stop down as it happens. Defined as “a swing high is a bar with a lower high to either side of it”, trail stop at the lowest swing high, exiting only on touch of the stop or second consecutive close outside bollinger band.

    Doing the same thing currently with March 10 year notes and yen futures, working for them too.

  • raised_by_wolves

    You want to see me split hairs? Priced in silver, I've never seen SPX lower than four weeks ago. :-)

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/a423bd1a-f321-4ce5-b3ec-0a7d46124564/00002691.png

  • jacksoo

    what really worries me is that having 'magiced' that money from the ether their ego kicks in and they pull more and more stunts to control the world – - the words 'free market economy' may have been consigned to the history books.

  • jacksoo

    they won't stop here RBW – they're now the masters of the universe, here's the next steps – - big power battle Gov v Fed – - who the fuck runs things around here – — i think ugly before all is said and done.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    Wow… she's hot…! Heard but never seen her.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm thinking more strongly thinking about moving to Alaska or Yukon. I would love to live near the highest peaks in the Western hemisphere. You?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I thought this was good free info for everyone, but since this is your place I will refrain from posting such things.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    “This video contains content from Vevo, who has blocked it in your country on copyright grounds”…

    Looking at DAX and FTSE ..some pullback to come? BUT how much? Or do we go back to bottom of the range AGAIN? Gut feel is pullback that scares the longs before powering higher… tho DAX seems to be forming a broadening wedge so a new high may be a reasonable short

    http://www.screencast.com/t/3RDUrVd6QfQn
    http://www.screencast.com/t/UUeT56WPM

  • jacksoo

    already live on the highest peak in my neighbourhood – - being aware is being a little prepared.

  • amokta

    Big spike up in spx futures!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes could be no pullback !! Break out up up and away!

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Wave (v). Now the question is, was that a-b-c (completing, down we go), or 1-2-3 (more to come, sideways-ness then more up)…

  • Fearless

    Yesterday's total volume on the NYSE was lower than the previous day, although just slightly. However, UVOL/DVOL was over 10 and we cleared 1200.29 by a good margin and even breached 1207.43! There is a gap at the 1213 area and I suspect that's where the market is headed today. The daily maximum expected is 1219.8 and I don't see the market going up another 25 SPX points.

    The EUR/USD is back-testing the 1.325-1.335 support broken a few days ago, and the DXY is back-testing 80. Did we just have the Santa Rally ignited? Perhaps, but I still have to see today for a confirmation move.

    Is the market manipulated? There has always been manipulation for as long as there existed markets, but in 2010 the manupulation was as blatantly obvious as it could get. All you do is you make adjustments and move on. The better markets to trade would be the BOVESPA, TSX, ASX, and TAIEX. That BOVESPA uptrend support is as beautiful as it can get, held six times since November 20 2008. When it breaks on volume and back-tested on no-demands, I think the party might then be over.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yeah possibly. To be honest, I have given up trying to count on the large scale. That way dragons lie…

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    My niece loved this tune. Now is it just me or is Katy Perry “California Girls” just a blatant rip-off or what?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra
  • chronographics

    Nice , very nice. yes is some position you have then.
    Catch up when I am back in a weeks time. Stay cool ;-)

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra
  • raised_by_wolves

    Would you mind labeling your smaller scale bullish and bearish counts on chart?

    Here's some Smashing Pumpkins. . . .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrivjzw0RlI

    For me, the song creates a weird sense of nostalgia, weird because I never really had tight-knit friends as shown in the music video. I was mostly a loner. Even when I was with other people, I felt like a loner. I wish I had a do over.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Who's Katy Perry?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Or give me your time scale, and I'll try my hand.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Never mind, I probably don't want to know.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra
  • raised_by_wolves

    I couldn't make it through even the first thirty seconds. So, I fast forwarded using the slider and left the vid paused on this frame.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/78bc277d-534a-4444-ad83-a1b94e41ee38/00002693.png

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Will do, but can't from here (at work). Will reply later.

  • raised_by_wolves

    It's a bizarre world we live in where we listen to Katty Perry candy land pop trash (I feel like throwing up) one minute and then the next find ourselves in the middle (not the beginning or end, the middle) of a John Coltrane performance.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXUcKnXYofE

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Haha yes she is pretty easy on the eye..

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm overdue for bed. I'll look for it later.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Easy on the eye, hard on the . . . uh, ears. :-)

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Sleep well dude. I am hungover to fark and wishing I could go home for another couple hours quality time with the duvet also..

    Another party tonight. No rest for the wicked…

    This was last night – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtxV02tyR5A

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm overdue for bed. I'll look for it later. Thank you.

  • SouthernTrader

    Mole,

    Curious if you saw the ISEE index? Closed at 327. Last time we were that high was April 15th and a week and a half later we hit new highs and then had a flash crash. I guess going to 1250 could set up well for a good selloff. This is only the 2nd time in history (that I can find) that we closed above 300 on the ISEE. Just my 2 cents and with Bernanke in charge my 2 cents is worth about 40% of what it was a few years ago.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Gainfully employed I see RBW. She's a Honey and a money pot that one.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Thats on my all time best Requiem list, although I prefer to listen too it while I can still hear.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Just give me the Redwoods.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    ROFL – Maybe I am emasculated. Man someone must have been thinking of me when they made that Video – Pyramid schemes thats my pet hate. She's me all over, JBTDYFI.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Maybe time to sell DAX buy FTSE?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/k7hy3wPOirJv FTSE/DAX spread weekly chart

    http://www.screencast.com/t/1uw1hP0TeR7x FTSE/DAX spread daily chart

  • Clint

    Enjoy what ? :)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Jobless claims up . . . anybody care?

  • amokta

    Ok, big(-ish) fall in futuramas just now

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Looks like a nice long with a tight stop..

  • roncofooddehydrator

    XLF closed above not only its 5 EMA on the daily yesterday, but the gap up also helped it jump to the other side of the 30, 50 and 200 EMAs as well. So after the close I went long FAS. Ultimately I think the big banks are screwed, but no use in fighting it if we're going to have a year end ramp up here. I'll be looking to scale into FAZ the farther up we go.

  • Fearless

    Anyone knew what the overnight high for EUR/USD was?

  • Schwerepunkt

    1.3217

  • Hinkognito

    Looked like 1.3216

  • Schwerepunkt

    we bounced off the 61.8 fib line at 1.3065 a little while ago, with a low print of 1.3061.

  • Fearless

    Thanks, that might have been it for the back-test of the broken support at 1.325 – 1.335

    If 1.295 is broken, then you know the EUR/USD is probably headed for 1.26

  • amokta

    Worth a shot

  • BobbyLow

    Look at the obligatory “Let a smile be your umbrella” Spin on the report.

    “More people sign up for unemployment benefits but broader trend points to healing jobs market”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/More-people-sign-up-for-apf-3747269758.html;_ylt=Ak0QJEOnI.lJ9xh82D0Ra5a7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1ODgzcDY5BHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNqb2JsZXNzY2xhaW0-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

  • Fearless

    Today's expected low is 1199, and the expected high is 1213. Daily minimum and maximum expected are 1194.16 and 1219.8 respectively.

    I am looking for higher volume today on the upside to validate yesterday's breakout, and the bar must close no more than 38.2% off its high. Should that happen, I will be getting in on a pullback tomorrow for a bullish Monday. Should the breakout move not be validated, I will hold off and just play individual stocks.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep nice call!

  • Schwerepunkt

    I am reminded of Jimmy Swaggert or somesuch, with their hands on someone's head, screaming Heeeeeeeyal! Heeeeeeeyal!

  • ds2

    Zero down? Seems like it to me.

  • ronebadger

    Yeah, I'm a newbie and I just figured I was doing something wrong, but I am logged into both Discus and Evil.

  • JDWM
  • Turps

    my Zero isn't working, anyone else having the same problem?

  • tradingmom

    I am — time is updating but the chart is not — very annoying because I wanted to go short at SPX 1215 and I don't have the zero to look at.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Another classic. Made me laugh and cry a little at the same time.

  • Schwerepunkt

    What the specific level expectations you mention based on? Demark of something else?

  • Clint

    $TRAN index (trannies) back over 5000. That sure as hell ain't bearish.

  • Fearless

    Fibonacci levels. People here know that I don't use EWT for trading (I think it's almost completely useless), but I find the Fib levels work out quite well. I also use the previous 14 candles (daily) for judgment, and I look at important levels on the weekly.

    We have already filled that gap at the 1213 level, and now gunning for 1219.8; there is something suspicious about today's move. I need to see volume picking up on the bull side; otherwise, it smells like distribution again. If today's volume is 15% lower than yesterday's volume, we could be looking at a fake-out and crap tomorrow.

  • 99er

    ZN
    The 10-Year is going down the drain.
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/10y.html

  • 99er

    DX
    The Dollar may have its groove back.
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/dollar_02.html

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Classic.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yup. Have emailed Mole..

  • 99er
  • Fearless

    Yesterday I told you retails were buying lots of JPM calls (I think it was 11 calls per put). Look at JPM today! There were lots of calls purchased by the retails on MSFT on Tuesday, and MSFT had a good run yesterday (granted, lots of stocks had great runs yesterday).

    Still think retails don't know what they're doing? Of course they do. The top bullish options activity today? GLD.

  • Eva S

    Where do you get your options stats?

    P.S. BAC, GGAL and many other banks are doing well.

  • amokta

    Luckily, i closed out my short position, and went long on cash-open

    The question is, is it possible to make highs this side of Orthodox Christmas?

    Or is it all a big Bull-trap?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Zero working now – TOS did an overnight update.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Equities? Did not see that. Will update my chart today and post it.

  • Eva S

    Impossible! LOL

  • LilSpaniard

    Mole is that a neg divergence on ZL or is data bad?

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    i was just about to ask the same question.

  • poopsquad

    I know you are not in control of TOS, but these zero breakages are becoming a bit too frequent – For me it is my primary trading tool and thus I feel quite quite naked without it. At $50 a month and I imagine now subscribers in the 1000's, is it not reasonable that we expect someone over there to ensure its working at the market open at this point ?

  • amokta

    I tried to buy some SODA stream, but it seems to have lost its fizzule?

  • Darkthirty

    I've got -D on ST sto/rsi/macd ES

  • 99er

    TF
    Double Top on Russell futures.
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/tf_02.html

  • Eva S

    That's true. SODA was hotter than a $2 pistol for about a week, and now completely lost its fizzle. Remember, this is trading not investing.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Looks incomplete – let's give it more time.

  • amokta

    True, this is verging on pink-sheet trading!

    I was looking to see if it had some fizz left

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Just bought a small portion of FAZ @ 11.13 to offset some of my FAS. FAZ is now 10% below the 200 EMA on the 2hr chart. I'll add more if we can get down to 15% below and then more if we hit 20% below.

    Also, ($UVOL-$DVOL) isn't looking as clean as it did yesterday, so I'm suspicious of how much more upside we have for today.

  • bluprint

    Wouldn't it make more sense to just dump some FAS? Owning both of these seems like just ensuring some amount of loss. Better to be flat to that extent, no?

  • Eva S

    A lot of stocks behave this way as many speculators are expecting the end of civilization and are trigger-happy.

    One of my best calls last month was ARO. Check out what happened to it this week.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    1000 subs – ha, I wish! And if I had a reasonable amount of subs you would be right!

    There are a few dozen people subscribed right now and this blog is actually costing me money right now. The last four month saw a plunge in subscribers now reaching 60%! As a matter of fact, unless subscriptions start coming back I may have to pull the plug early next year as my other business is taking off in a big way.

    Sorry, not my fault retail traders have been taken to the woodshed – I did warn everyone at major bear squeezes every step on the way.

  • 99er
  • Fearless

    Retail call options update: GE, C, F

    I have a feeling they're right.

  • poopsquad

    wow , sorry I was embarassingly off but I cant beleive zero hasnt gotten more traction. Single most useful VST tool I have found and obviously it has use on bigger timeframes as well in conjunction with other tools. I can't imagine entering day trades without this thing. Why are all retail traders (or visitors of this blog) bearish ? I could care less which way we go (actually i take that back, I prefer up for pretty standard issue reasons)

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Actually, if there are several successive days in one direction you'll gain as the continued offset in one direction will compound. Only if you hold them both long enough that they fluctuate up and down will it be an issue.

    I do it mainly because I don't have a daytrading account so I can't be picking up and dropping the same security too many times in one day. By offsetting one with the other I can drop it the next day and not worry about that.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh – one more thing: I live on the West Coast and the market here opens at 6:30am. Back in the days when I had hundreds of subs I happily got up at 6:00am. But as it is right now it seems that blogging for retail traders is a waning business and thus I had to change my focus.

    Sorry guys but look: Traffic here has died despite my valiant efforts to keep this place interesting. I have fought for months now but people are not coming back. The cheese has moved it seems and nothing I do will change that. Now before you criticize me: I spent several hours this Sunday working on the weekend update, despite the fact that I am neck deep buried in work and have not enjoyed a day off in months. Result by Monday? A few dozen comments and one re-subscription.

    Given the monetary benefit as well as the amount of traffic here I think I have given this blog a LOT of my time and attention. At this point I'm losing money on this but I have pressed on. But you all can surely understand that I cannot keep doing this forever.

    So PLEASE do not give me a hard time when fucking TOS decides to do an overnight update which screws up the Zero. I cannot go to bed at 9:00pm these days as my other business is taking more of my time. Got to feed my family – just like you guys ;-)

  • convictscott

    Mole, is that zero lite divergence accurate with the TOS outage? Just jumped out of part of my es z0 position for a 1.85 R win on the basis zl divergence

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Looks like a decent one in development – careful if you are long…

  • poopsquad

    again, obviously I misjudged the size of your business.. and I am disappointed to hear that really given my opinion of the zero…. it just seems these TOS updates are more and more frequent, you can understand my frustration when once a week I am without my primary trading tool that I pay for for the 2.5 hours the market is open….I guess your telling me take it or leave it, which I will still take it.

  • convictscott

    Thanks mate, done n dusted long contracts from 1188.50, out at 1217.75 and I'm getting some sleep with profit banked :)

    Thanks again to zero, I trust that shit !

  • Fearless

    Right in line with expectations, volume needs to pick up though. Glad I got rid of my longs on the US side now. The US market is so played by Banana Ben that I elected to pass on once my targets are reached. Right now the Canadian side looks better and tastier for me.

    I will go long on tomorrow's pullback if all trend-trading conditions are satisfied.

    P.S. Mole, it's not your fault that retails who didn't listen to your warnings got taken to the woodshed. You've been warning about snap back rallies and the Zero gave numerous signals, too. I think retails were just hoping that the market gets back to 666 and they can buy everything cheap again. F— hope, it's not a valid setup. Money is right in front of us to be made if you can see the opportunities.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You have no idea mate – and I'm the one who has to deal with angry emails.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I really don't know mate – maybe it was fashionable. Fact is everyone left and I don't think they come back in this generation.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No telling you that – I wish I had more subs to justify watching it every minute during trading hours. And the Xmas season is only going to make things worse as subs usually take a break in early December.

    I am going to hold the fort until late January but after that I will have to make a serious decision. If you are a sub or avid reader of the blog please consider that this place may not be here for long without your support.

  • 99er
  • malverd

    how is the service for trading futures with TOS?

  • malverd

    nice chopping sideways on eur/usd 1 min; wish it would make up its mind

  • malverd

    nice just dropped :P

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Can someone explain all the tails on 6/E? Is it a TOS glitch?

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    LVS just got hammered… some guy on CNBC not saying good stuff about gaming.

  • Fearless

    Should I quadruple down on CSCO? Hmmm…

    C ISEE reading just skyrocketed to 61:1 Call:Put

  • malverd

    don't know. when do you consider your analysis to be wrong? do you have enough money to keep doubling down?

  • amokta

    If we break 1220, i will eat my horse!

  • Fearless

    It's less than 1% of my distribution. Like I said, $19 is the line in the sand for me. So far CSCO has held $19.13

  • malverd

    stock or options? why did you choose csco? it's not much of a mover. are you trying to play the gap? it's been basing for 2+ weeks

  • malverd

    man, eur/usd back and forth. guess i'll go play with my shake weight :P

  • malverd

    ok, short eur/usd. see how it goes :P

  • Eva S

    I agree. CSCO hasn't done much while other stocks advance 5-10%.

  • Eva S

    I think I recommended MSFT calls yesterday. Another +150% today.

  • malverd

    yeah, good moves out there. i caught the move on HAR

  • malverd

    if we close near the high today, i'll buy into some long trades. i'm still not convinced that the down move/channel has been violated on spx

  • Eva S

    OXPS – this one *will* have a huge special dividend coming up in December (~25%). I do intend to catch it. I'm waiting for a pullback….

  • malverd

    enter midpoint of 11/29 daily candle?

  • Eva S

    That would be perfect!

  • Fearless

    That red bar (on the daily) on the CAD/USD looks beautiful. I am at least 1% richer than my neighbours South of the border today when compared to yesterday.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    d@m, if I don't get a like for this clever graphic, I quit.
    http://www.irintech.com/x1/images/jean/polar_bear_eats_horse_head.jpg

  • amokta

    Spx 1220, Horse – he taste good :-)

  • bluprint

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm thinking the loser between FAS/FAZ on a given day is usually bigger (in % terms) than the winner. So the one you are keeping as a hedge on the downside of your main holding isn't going to make as much as the comparable amount on the other side loses.

    In any case, given you cant day trade, it does make sense to at least offset some losses of your main holding in the short run if you think its a temporary correction which will resume a larger trend in favor of your main holding.

    Thanks for the response.

  • Eva S

    :-)

  • Eva S

    For day trading, FAS and FAZ should be about the same. But in a bull market it's better to short FAZ than go long FAS. Compare the performance of short FAZ and long FAS since 3/09. (I just love the FAZ chart…)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My hosting company SUCKS BLOCKS!!!

  • malverd

    who you got?

  • Joe_Jones

    Any bear left out here?

  • Fearless

    Not me, the Polar Bear needs to go on the ice to start hunting for seals. Volume is confirming yesterday's upside move, so the Polar Bear will wait for tomorrow's pullback before feasting on other bears. Heck, when the Polar Bear is hungry, it does not care what's in front of it; it's all food.

  • Clint

    How does horse taste ? Like chicken ?

  • malverd

    waitin' for the close

  • 99er

    Blocks? That's new to me; I like it. “Ben sucks blocks.”

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • EvilTrader

    Im pretty much bearish for next week, but thats because of excessive bullishness of retailers and Euroland troubles.

    Other than that, december-rally and POMO should prevail.

  • Biowolf

    You got it , mole baby.(Free after Neil Young addressing Robbie Robinson)

     

    On Dec 2, 2010, Disqus <> wrote:

    <div class=”replyBody”>

    </div>

  • Biowolf

    I am stunned that you pick me to discuss this subject. What makes you think I am an expert on it?

    On Dec 2, 2010, Disqus <> wrote:

    <div class=”replyBody”>

    </div>

  • raised_by_wolves

    Tyler Durden refuses to chase the market higher:

    "So please pardon us while we remain completely unconvinced that like the amusing cartoon yesterday made all to clear, the only thing this market is chasing is its tail. As market historians know all too well, in the period between 1930 and 1939, and during the Japanese two lost decades, stocks had so many 50%+ headfakes it is difficult to count. And never before was the entire world on the verge of global bankruptcy, when the only recourse was to devalue currencies with impunity, leaving increasingly more to create their own gold standard by purchasing ever more physical gold. So those who wish to chase this ponzi higher, are welcome to do so: it is only fitting that the previous post talks about Barney Madoff. We wonder how many of the people invested with Madoff would have pulled their money the day, month, year or decade before the ponzi was discovered had they known they would all lose everything. But such is human psychology: chasing momentum and inflection points, in a broken market, supervised by corrupt regulators, and ultimately determined by central bankers however, is not for us.

    "We can only wish the best of luck to those who do enjoy tossing live grenades."
    I assume he wouldn't short the market either.

  • Biowolf

    Sorry, mole, your post makes sense to me  after reading your previous post just now.I must admit I share your feelings.

    On Dec 2, 2010, Disqus <> wrote:

    <div class=”replyBody”>

    </div>

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    I remember in 1984 as I just set out on my career after finishing University the Labour Government of New Zealand was voted in on a landslide on the back of Free Market policies made popular by Marg Thatcher in England.

    Subsidies to farmers and other producers were removed and the stress of this caused many to take their lives. Funny thing is we adapted and then in 2008 I shorted the market as I saw the excesses of the past as an opportunity to redistribute some of the so called free market wealth into my sorry pockets.

    Man was I nieve – “Free Market” is only free when those with the Power and Wealth are winning – we found out when they are about to lose their wealth and position the Elite Money Managers all run to mummy State and enlist the great unwashed as the fall guy yet again. When we lose we lose and when they lose they steal.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Right now I just take little chunks from the Currency markets – all else is just a Casino at the moment with a fabricated floor at 1175 and that spells danger, as I think technical analysis is a lie in this environment and the only way we will penetrate that floor is with a shock – a shock that will not be broadcast – who knows when that will happen. I used to love reading Michael Creighton as he was all about the theory of complexity and the folly of simple decisions in Public affairs. Unfortunately he died, taken by Cancer in his prime.





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