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Time For An Upgrade
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Time For An Upgrade

by The MoleApril 18, 2017

I was recently encouraged by a reader to move my entire domain to SSL which was something I had been planning for a quite a while but kept forgetting due to my ever growing workload. However then Google suddenly sends me a notification yesterday which stated that any pages with password fields served via HTTP are going to flag a warning, starting… and get this: January 1st, 2017. Well, thanks a lot Google for the timely reminder!

Well, as you can imagine I have been scrambling to upgrade the site since then.  SSL is now working across the entire site, which you can try out by visiting https://evilspeculator.com. However I also have been working on forcing aMember to use SSL only and if any of you subs (or non-subs) are experiencing any problems logging in or with the site in general then please email me right away at admin@.

Did I mention I hate upgrades? Why do they always make me upgrade? If I had my way I’d still be running a CERN daemon on a NeXT and browse the web with Netscape 1.0. And why would anyone need more 640k of RAM anyway?

2017-04-18_spoos_update

Anyway all of this has turned into a huge time sink for me so let’s skip right to the charts. We are still long the E-Mini but it continues to flail around rather annoyingly and I am starting to get a bit antsy here. Which probably means a big move is just about the corner but that’s something I already thought last week, so what do I know. Since we’re long I’d say let’s move our stop to break/even and then see what she’ll do. No reason to force this thing, besides if we get another drop lower then there will most likely a retest of the (still rising) 100-day SMA, which now hovers around 2302.

2017-04-18_silver_update

Silver has decided to come to daddy but I want it at 18.3 exactly and I want it now. And we all know I always get exactly the fill I want, right?  

Some Tape Reading

Now all kidding aside there is a reason why I’m such a stickler with this and some other entries I have been waiting for. It doesn’t require a PhD in statistics for you to figure out that we are currently in very volatile market period across the board. We are seeing oscillating tape in once trending sectors (e.g. equities) while others seem to be getting ready for a break out after months of sideways action (e.g. bonds). Which is another way of saying that we may be heading for a regime change. Which means that you may have to adjust the basket of symbols you feel comfortable trading. Being married to a particular sector or worse, maintaining a directional bias all evidence to the contrary can and often will turn out to be a losing proposition.

2017-04-18_EURUSD

The EUR/USD seems to be confirming my idea yesterday which was that a big move to the upside was in the making. And most likely you ain’t seen nothing yet – if Le Pen winds up losing this Sunday then expect a hard run to the upside. Anyway, if you’re a sub and took a long position yesterday then I suggest you move your stop up to break/even now.

Speaking of which – three more extra juicy charts below the fold:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • OJuice

    Thanks Mole.

    For a “spike low”, do you look for anything specific beyond a candle with a long tail that breaches the BB?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Candle Low – a major low is of course best (i.e. lowest in the past 10 candles).
    A close higher, lows cannot breach prior low.

    After that I am usually looking for another candle or two up followed by a drop. You know it when you see it.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    ES looks like it setting up for a drop to me… I’m going to take a short at 2343.75 The bears may try to mount a meager defense. Tight stop .5R

  • OJuice

    I thought so too. But then gold and $VIX were slammed on the open…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, volatility continues to bleed out – trending since last week. Miners L+S still in countercurrent clusterfuck ranging, usually confirming of important inflection.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    We will see. I just don’t think the bears will give in so easy. My stop is @ 2347.25 I’ll flip long if it gets hit.

  • OJuice

    Seems reasonable. I’m gonna sit this one out though. Don’t want to be chopped up into bite sized bits for bankers.

  • Mark Shinnick

    You know….if that happens to be the broadly shared sentiment ??
    However P/C ratios would support you.

  • ridingwaves

    one thing that looks clear via my lens, Mole mentioned a lot lately also, the market fragility is scary….any serious block selling will have few buyers to soak it up….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Has Trump said anything about support for market support? He was giving a lot of fair warning about stability before election, but the message then turned to suit the rally.

  • StockTalker

    -2 /ES avg 2340.50, see if the bears take control.

  • OJuice

    Which sentiment? The not getting eaten part?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, exactly; fruitless time-not-price correction has become something of a conditioned response for quite a while now.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Heads up with miners…just saying.

  • ridingwaves

    me thinks a trip to 2325 area might be in store

  • Mark Shinnick

    Volatility did happen to bounce off a logical support.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …and then met with logical resistance from last week.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    TLT, it’s been 3 months.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00077507972

    Fear is our ally

    What if the gap in November, was matched by a another gap upward.
    by, Oh say, a missile flying over Japan.
    😯

  • Mark Shinnick

    This is a interesting chart, where in the miners sector (i.e. GDX) as well there exists the same extended flag formation to a logical objective.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    unfortunately, a bunch of sectors can be joined loosely at the hip.
    how many times have I scanned all my charts and then found similarities!
    Hey wait a minute…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, for me those are sort of “time-out” moments …to take some special notice.

  • ridingwaves

    the weekly is an interesting spot too…

  • OJuice

    Chop till you drop. By the looks of it, gold and $VIX have uncoupled in the past couple hours.

  • StockTalker

    Big test @ /ES2340

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I have been bogged down with this SSL upgrade and I also updated aMember. How’s my crew?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not looking good indeed – too much weakness.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok man…but remember too about that Murphy’s Law thing about getting distracted (like with vacation) at just the most interesting times ;/ I’ve covered equity shorts for the time being.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    can’t complain.
    FYI, the (language) usage of SSL is kind of outdated. TLS is the new acronym.

    https://www.ciso-central.org/transport-layer-security/ssl-is-dead-long-live-tls

  • BobbyLow

    Doing OK Boss.

    It looks like Silver hit your fill price? I was already long and am now just barely positive on SLV. Price went all the way down to 18.06 this AM and got pretty close to my stop before it came back.

  • OJuice

    Mole do you still use the old $VIX buy/sell signal at all?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Tell me about it…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…its pretty amazing what all you end up accomplishing.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    YES.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • HD

    Very nice site! mind if I stop by from time to time? an introduction- Mostly just a CL and ES daytrading hack that uses fibonacci and elliot wave to find any advantage for an entry long or short. I also have a boring blog here http://hdivot618.blogspot.com/2017/03/the-2017-pit-with-disqus.html Been selling CL > 53 for a few days and also selling ES rallies. Hope it’s ok to share 2 very recent charts. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd38f87c8e164bdb5a615497675fdc6f795a6cfb871e2c1689e8f02155e13a41.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/124a964c639479711b7e70580655d7c602457aa4d7b49d255c80de193dfa1d1e.png

  • HD

    fascinating. I love proprietary indicators. I can tell a lot of time went into that.

  • HD

    Can you direct me to more info on the indicator? Tracking participation is tricky when BOTs are running price. Those perfect 10 handle rallies though are a nice signature they leave sometimes.

  • OJuice

    Equities buy signal from $VIX, $VIX/$SPX divergence, strong seasonality, etc. Almost seems to good to be true… I think we will find out tomorrow morning and I have my fingers crossed that its a runner.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Everyone is welcome here but prepare yourself for some flack when it comes to wave wanking. But there is hope for you as well – I used to be one and finally saw the light sometime in 2010 😉

    Now seriously – we focus on technical trading ONLY here. And by that I mean edges that have a PROVEN statistical probability. Check out some of my recent posts on the subject in the popular category.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III