Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Time To Close The Deal!
233

Time To Close The Deal!

by The MoleMay 31, 2010

The 40-year old virgin is running out of time. Tomorrow will be the last chance to ‘close the deal’ so to say, otherwise we’ll be most likely talking about a 50-year old virgin a month from now.

Let’s run through some medium and long term charts to make sure everyone is on point for this coming trading week:

Really long term outlook here. I have shown this chart in the past and what is now an established trend is that of diminishing volume during rallies and increasing volume during drops. Is that a new bull market? One could make the ‘wall of worry’ argument here but if that was the case we wouldn’t have almost doubled in one year, right?

As many of you are Zero subscribers (memberships have tripled in the past month) I am happy to revive a welcome addition to the team – the daily Zero. We were watching the daily until late December, but starting January TOS somehow reset their servers and the daily somehow went blank overnight. Although new data has now accumulated since that big reset I finally had enough and recoded the Zero for my NinjaTrader platform which runs on DTN – a more professional data service. And I’m glad that I did as the bullish divergences precisely at the bottom of lows (marked with green arrows on the chart) alone are worth your monthly subscription. I’m pretty excited about this – although the bearish divergences seem to be a lot less reliable this indicator will be invaluable for any bear intending to play the big swings.

Anyway, the daily Zero has now pushed into positive territory in the past week but then dropped slightly below the mark on Friday. Tomorrow will either be the day where we snap back and confirm a new bullish pattern or we yet again push negative and most likely make new lows for year. For the bears is deal closing time – no more time to waste – 1125 is where the rubber meets the road, for the bulls that is.

I’m sure you want to know what the HotFusion panel is. No, it’s not a stochastic 😉

This is my JNK:TLT spread chart. Basically, how tasty is junk in relation to treasuries. Now compare this one with my copper chart:

Which seems to tell the same story: Both charts appear to precede equities when it comes to rolling over after a new high. Eventual snap back rallies appear to be supported. We will keep an eye on both.

Mr. VIX was stomped on after some pretty intense readings which pushed outside an already overstretched Bollinger. Can’t keep going straight up folks – we need a little rest. Right now we reverted back to base camp at the center line. Again, a breach of this line will spell higher prices in equities – if we hold and bounce it’s possible that the 40-year old virgin gets to first base (i.e. SPX 980).

Momentum/Sentiment Indicators

On the NYSE Adv/Dec Volume chart we did get lower close accompanies by a higher reading. The ensuing snap back was pretty intense, just like the one before – which for the record made acting on it a bit difficult. Now we have plenty of momentum to the downside, which favors upside for equities.

Then there’s my CPCE chart. Nothing really has changed on the 10-day moving average – there’s plenty of air below now, which again will be a head wind for the bears. Yes, markets do fall off the plate in oversold conditions, but it would have to happen quite rapidly – we are talking Tuesday/Wednesday.

Same story on my TRIN chart. We have come a long way and to go higher we need a non-statistical event.

Wave Count:

Which brings me to the wave count. We are running out of time and the wave formation now puts the pressure on the bears to make a move. If we breach last week’s high at 1103.52 it will be one strike against the bears – if we push beyond the 1120 mark it will be a second strike leading most likely to Soylent Green. And that one could actually stretch out for quite some time – as we could indeed push higher than 1175. Which brings me to my final chart for today:

Exotics:

Before I explain this one please make sure you read up on my little intro on the Chris Carolan’s spiral calendar work, which I greatly admire. So much actually that there is also an entire category dedicated to Chris’ work.

Anyway, a while back I realized that U.S. equities were lagging the Dow Jones Shanghai Index – China goes first and the U.S. follows, it seems – eventually. I tried to nail down the approximate amount of delay for obvious reasons and the numbers I got started to sound familiar. So at a hunch I began to correlate the delays via spiral calendar time cycles. What I got was quite fascinating. Back in 2008 we were right on the Chinese’ heels, but now there seems to be a longer delay minus 6-10 days. The chart explains it pretty well – and maybe the 10 day delay is a bit hefty to be taken seriously – not if it continues to line up however. So, it’s quite possible that the current retracement up (which may turn into Soylent Green) could take us close to 6/21. I don’t think 8/18 is a possibility for Soylent Green – perhaps that is where Intermediate (2) would take us – either that or a completely different scenario that puts us into new annual highs.

Bottom Line:

The bears got to get their groove on starting Tuesday morning. There is simply too much bullish evidence on the table, and the bulls will not hesitate to give the bears a run for the money, and at this point they have the odds on their side. As I said all week – I am keeping my long term puts as this is the only way to not miss out on a sudden drop, which I am still confident will happen – most likely in mid to late June. Unless of course the bears can close the deal tomorrow. Also watch the EUR/JPY (not shown here) – it was a bit overbought on my 30 minute chart on Friday, so there is a chance it could lead equities lower.

Stick with the levels shown on my wave count to scale out of short positions if you are playing things short term. Otherwise, my own approach will be to give this the time second waves usually need to shake out the weak hands.

Stay frosty!

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • tradingmom

    I read Al Brooks' new book yesterday and dreamed about charts all night long.

  • DudePlunger

    I'll short 2/ES @ 1080, a break of Friday's low.
    Target 1- 1070-1060
    Target 2- 1035-1000
    I'll put my stop initially at 1110, but I reduce my risk as time goes on or if the price action is not working for me. If we see weakness overnight in Asia, the euro, and oil, I'll take a trade before Europe open, otherwise I'll wait till 7AM EST.

  • katzo7

    You gotta get a life. LOL

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, thanks mole how about un-locking the previous post? 😉 (wink wink)

    I have an ambiguous setup right now, I favor the “one more drop before a rebound to 1100's” but I might be wrong (damn counts are ambiguous at best and hamsterbandwise it's on a soft-choice point)

    best regards

    p.s. I do look vaguely familiar

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Good plan, but I just shorted already. They don't want any panic until after the BBQ are over…so the late night boyz will sell this one off.

    Well that plus, my holy grail indicator—got to keep an eye on that one.
    see blog

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Too many good charts on that post – didn't feel like it was justified yet as people are paying for early access to this. I'll open it up during Tuesday's session.

    Just get it over with and join the dark force! You know you will relent in the end 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm worried about you… seek help! :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Holy grail indicator, ey? I buy it for a buck!

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Its worth a million or so.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Okay, 2 bucks….

    (this is going to take a while)

  • yudhisthira

    Oops there it is. 111.63 on eur/jpy. Long way to 109, though.

  • MDX

    Zimbabwe dollars? :)

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Oh ye of little faith….check the ES, just did a mini-flash crash

  • katzo7

    Saw that, 1083 important area.

  • katzo7

    Here is the conclusion of that comparison chart (240 ES) I published here. Two horizontal triangles.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    that one is toast, PRS 133 support at 1080, closed shorts will reshort if broken

  • yudhisthira

    Grail call. I mean great call.
    What happens before morning open?
    Grail sharing?

  • katzo7

    Long ES @ 1080.50

  • skynard

    Was thinking the same @1079.75, missed it and also went long @ 1080.5. Looking @ 1090 for exit. SL @1078.5

  • Long_John_Silver

    ???

  • katzo7

    Target 1088.

  • katzo7

    “???” ?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Well it wasnt worth a million, but it was worth a thousand! Weedhopper, hop on over to Hawaii Trading and the secrets of the grail are within the twisted logic.

  • Long_John_Silver

    naive question: your first triangle presages a drop in price, on the 2nd you go long –

  • katzo7

    Should speed up to upside now. Mine is a ST play. T 1088.

  • Long_John_Silver

    2nd naive query for the acronym-challenged – 'ST' = ?

  • katzo7

    ST drop is done, note the %R is bottomed or nearly done. IT direction is still down.

  • yudhisthira

    Gotchya bookmarked.

  • katzo7

    ST=short term, day trade, hours
    IT=intermediate term, longer trade, possibly swing trade, overnight
    LT=long term, position trading, multi-day or weeks

    My horizontal triangle chart was showing a comparison of the two forms I identified. They did work out as predicted. The %R on the 240 has not turned yet but %R on the 120 is just flattening out. Again, this is a VST trade, out within an hour or two or if/when target (1088) gets hit.

  • Long_John_Silver

    Yes – good, goto it – but I don't speak the language here – 'st' means –

  • Long_John_Silver

    Yes, thanks! very much appreciated – the Williams %R is new to me in the past few days, but I noticed Mole also remarked “it's one of the few that works..” so i took notice –

    learning the trading acronyms is new also – good of you to explain – LJS

  • katzo7

    Out @ 1081.50.

  • jacksoo

    you think 76 might cap the low katzo?

  • katzo7

    Small target at 1078, large target at 1075. We hit 75 and 1045 becomes next target as we break an EW up facing form and transform it into a down focused one.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/05/prs-133

    Back short 1082.75, but ready to close on a bounce from the PRS, see chart, sloppy composite but it is working for today

  • MDX

    Indeed, I see it. More please.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Trying to post a picture without using Jing which is 100% locking up my computer, power switch is only fix, that sucks!

    is it possible to attach files or paste in a picture?

  • skynard

    That's the candle I was waiting for. HEHEHEHEHEHE!

  • katzo7

    New lower turn target for this ST move, 1084.75. Above 85.75 postpones down move IMO for a day or two.

  • jacksoo

    downside tgt your 78 fig katzo?

  • skynard

    Moved SL to 1082. Night all.

  • yudhisthira

    Copper looks a little weak. Leading of lagging?
    Good night all.

  • MDX

    I actually thought copper started to peak up a bit?

    Here's something, treasury bonds vs. copper… http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/905/67310732.jpg

  • DudePlunger

    Alright I was filled 1082 while I was out of the house finishing up my memorial day weekend. I'm very excited to get back to work. Here's my main swing trading chart for the next few weeks: http://i49.tinypic.com/2m7gp3l.jpg

    I'm short 2 /ES @ 1082 now (stop 1 @ 1107, 1 @ 1097). I want to book profits on 1 or reduce my risk before US open. Afterwards, I will continue to sell breakdowns such as the overnight low and I may even fade if the bearishness is there. My goal is to build a position of 3-5 contracts on the /ES as we head lower, taking profits on large drops and letting a little ride and putting in new orders. As of now, I am not hedged long but I do look forward to buying /NQ futures around 1000-950 (this may change.)

    For complete transparency, I trade an $18,000 account (I'm 21 and working towards consistent profitability after severe account volatility in 08+09.)

    I look forward to updating this trade (winner or loser as I admit there is a good chance we bounce into the 1100s one more time tomorrow), and I'm curious to see how you guys are trading.

  • jacksoo

    for what its worth, and most here are better qualified than I, I'm long 82.25 and looking for 99 – -will add to long if it reaches 76 (possibly also test of LOD ~79) but s/l at 73.50 – -what is your s/l

  • DudePlunger

    It's on the chart, 1082-1080 is an S/R level due to Friday's low, and Thursday's intraday low, both of which we broke by reaching 79.25. By breaking Thursday's intraday low, I think there is a high likelihood that we now fill that gap, which is a solid 25pts of action. If this area was to act as support, we should see a steady rise in the next few hours, as Europe begins to open. If not, simply heading back into the 70s allows me to secure profits on 1/2 my position, making it a lot easier to leg in contracts tomorrow (or later in the week) if we see downside momentum.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I have a few sites that I feel obligated to review every now and again. The one I picked for today's lashing seems to be “real”– however they never get bearish, right now they are “neutral” because there is lots of good news out there.

    Below excerpts from their latest–A Dash of Insight

    The European situation is going to take many months — perhaps even years — to unfold. The best thing investors can do is to understand that this is not a replay of 2008

    The “real world” has moved on from the European debate. You can look at any MSM (mainstream media) source from this weekend to discover the top concerns.

    The Truth about Europe
    A reasonable projection of impact for the US is not that significant….

    The Good

    The economic news hit the right notes for the key indicators.
    Home prices moved higher and sales were much stronger.

    Last Week's Data
    The actual data from last week generally beat expectations . If you had just been reading the news flow from the US, you would never have predicted the wild swings and negative bias

    Bear response————————

    You have no idea what moves markets. Get this–the markets are not moved by the continuously onslaught of “news”. Some news will move the market, at least temporarily, but most won't matter at all. The Gulf Spill…this will seep into the pysche and affect things. Most market moves are fractals caused by the collective human consciousness combined with fear, greed, hope, desire, and all the things that really drive humans—IT IS NOT LOGIC that drives humans, OK?

    I would agree this is not 2008. Now— there are no jobs being created. Millions have been thrown out of their houses, and they are mad. 48% of Americans say they are stressed with debt. Millions are underwater on their houses, maybe for a decade or more, there is no escape for the most part. USA has drastically increased it's debt, without proportional changes in future competitiveness. Many of our good jobs have gone oversees. We are chasing out the illegal aliens who did all the work during the boom time that Amercians are “above”, but now Americans are happy enough (desperate enough) to be happy with any job. In fact the “take away” from the reckless spending to fix the mess is that recklessness is rewarded or at least made whole. A complete lack of trust of business, finance, and government has been generated. Contract law is now regularly violated. None of the problems of the financial system have been fixed, they have just been covered up and we all know it.

    So I agree, this is not 2008.

    and PS, you are listening to MSM (Main Stream media) in order to figure out what is really going on? Huh? I don't think I can help you…..ever.

  • ricebowl

    FWIW as a bear I think the market is overreacting to the European debt crisis *unless* it's attempting to price in some sort of financial cataclysm caused by counterparty default risk and the nasty consequences that European soverign defaults will bring to the European financial system. I'm not saying the world is rosy, but though I disagreed with valuing the SPX at 1220, I don't see why it tanked 180 points, either.

    We will get there, though.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Fair enough boss, same thing on last friday (maybe better tham the sunday post) but do drop the “tomorrow teasing” so freeloaders know when to look it up (I do enjoy your choice and it refelcts what i personaly think will happen soon if things turn up right, Intelectual property will be restricted only for the short time where it is worth the most. It is a better model than Dave chose and I respect it 100%)

    Hamster view… drop from open or we're into some pain…

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I will be bullish on the market and the economy growth prospects when the S&P hits 200.

    The market is not a logical pricing mechanism

    That will be a fair level to grow from. It will be undervalued, but that is fine for growth.

    How is that for some bear-attude?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well just a small comment from europe….

    SPX 1108 better hold, otherwise it will dificult to stop 1160's and further

    Sub 1000 spx? break 1021 and i'll talk about 955-975

    Numbers to fear? 1109, 1139 and 1196

  • katzo7

    I hope everyone saw my post on the last thread about RUT and TRAN. Flies in the face of many bullish prognostications.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Well after been stuck between 0.8550 and 0.8430 range since Friday AUD broke the range and my short is finally making a kill :-)

    IMO we should at least test the 0.8060 low, but i`ve some more ambitious targets in mind that i will evaluate.

  • katzo7

    Jeez, noooo Jacksoo. Who you listening to? I gave been nailing it pretty good lately.

  • jacksoo

    too late – cost me a few bucks. Last two months have been crap frankly. Pretty much at a stand still – -gains have been returned to be gained again and then given up. Very frustrating.

  • katzo7

    Broke through my 1075 level like butta. That level was a very important level, a huge target. This break through is not right, it should have offered much more resistance, calls for stronger downside after perhaps a back test of the 75 area.

  • katzo7

    Remember, higher volatility means bigger swings on both sides, meaning it is even more important to get levels and direction correct. This market will rob from both bulls and bears.

  • jacksoo

    what s/l wld you run katzo to make sure this isn't some bull trap and she rips back to 1100?

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Well the best option for bulls now is that ES is on a 1.2.i.ii, but we`re already bellow 68% fib of .i so is getting hard to find some bullish options at this point. IMO the most bullish option requires a new low around 1000.

  • katzo7

    Yup. When everyone is calling for a bottom there will be no bottom. I was sickened by the crap I read yesterday on various sites. Everyone wants to be a hero, to call a bottom.

  • katzo7

    Bull trap? I tried to find my WEEK/MONTH chart that I keep on referring to, my screencast will not load. Go back and look at it. I am not trying to convince anyone, I am just presenting my research.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I guess we`re not on “buy dips” mode anymore.

  • gsavli

    I totally agree with you guys. Something doesn't feel right about this market (going long, that is) and it's more than just TA, it's that nagging feeling, the same I had on black Thursday, when I actually smelled accelerated selling.

    My bet (non paper, of course :) ) has been on the short side for some days now.
    That doesn't mean that I am not cautious though. I am well aware of the fact, how oversold we are on daily charts.

  • katzo7

    Anyone getting something at the 1070 level? I am getting nothing there via E Waves. Very strange as my levels have been fairly accurate. My next level is 1045, again, possible morning bounce to 1075, substantially about 1075 puts a ? in the whole thing. I have observed that up set ups on the 120/240 are being tested and broken now, not bullish IMO.

  • amokta

    Ok, my oil long has failed (i blame BP)
    but on the plus side, my stock shorts are looking better (are futures really down 18 pts spx)

    action point: is it time thank our stars, and sell shorts while in profit (i.e. are we still going to go back up for the moonshot tp 1125-1140 on spx, or indeed new highs), or does one double down and increase shorts further

  • katzo7

    Don't add to shorts here.

  • amokta

    hi yes, im max on my short allowance anyway (only short 10-20% of total account)
    however, i feel it could be that last week was the 'peak' for the current up wave, and now its downhill (of course the oposite could also happen – we need some tech-analysts/e-wavers to help us out here!)

  • Bob the Horse

    I see it as pretty binary here. Not helpful I know but I have been going through everything again this morning and I see two scenarios.

    1. Recent lows hold. S&P to 1300 then get heavily short.
    2. Recent lows don't hold – S&P to 920. But even in this scenario, ESM0 can go to 1180 first.

    Right here and now, I don't see the risk-reward on the short side.

    I could go into more detail about exactly how those scenarios are formed but hopefully my views are reasonably well known.

  • katzo7

    Go back and read my posts, been spot on.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    New low on EUR…so much for the bounce

  • katzo7

    Jeez, my first target level posted last nite of 1088 (actual was 1087.75) was hit @ 2 AM. I incorrectly lowered the target to 1084 ish, but I can see now that $ actually represented an EW ABC level on the 5 min. chart, the “A.”

  • katzo7

    A break through my 1075 level (opening action?) may lead us to 1078 or 81. IT/LT direction still down.

  • katzo7

    ES 1076 “A” top level hit, I said 78, was 2 points off, going down now into a “B” move of ABC, not worth trading IMO, BUT prolly will finish the 81 area upside move at some point today “C” level. Need to see how we finish before next call but think still down. BTW my channel held perfectly. DAY chart from past (5/28), not updated.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Where the hell is everybody? Weekend over, get back to work…time to bank some coin!

  • katzo7

    UNG on its way to my 8 prediction? It hit and has now passed my 7.41 prediction. Up to 7.48 in AH trading.

  • Farathall

    I have quite a few UNG calls that are going along with that sentiment. I think UNG might finally benefit from the increase in NG.

  • DudePlunger

    So far so good on my 1082 short. I'll hold both contracts into US open, thought I initially planned not to.

  • amokta

    ok, whats the opneing print?

  • DudePlunger

    1078

  • katzo7

    I said earlier “going down now into a “B” move of ABC, not worth trading IMO, BUT prolly will finish the 81 area upside move at some point today “C” level.” 80-81 new turn target, above 82 and we go up ontraday, divrction still IT down.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    $NATGAS is doing an ED on C of 4 (of impulse down) target 4.6- 4.7 IMHO

    target for 5 is 2.8

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    still no LOD

  • tradingmom

    I'm not getting new bars on the es chart above the zero lite. Anybody else w/ this problem?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    “luke, I have something to tell you… I'm you mothers nephew's son twice removed”

  • sela84

    katzo it was really good idea from you to post live here, it's much faster. thanks

  • momac

    yep

  • tooshort

    not moving on mine either

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    spx:vix 31.49 (down and below ma13) 19.5 is pulling

  • katzo7

    early warning system triggered close to short. . .

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    wait for the gap to close

  • DudePlunger

    We are trying really hard before the 10AM number.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    QQQQs are green.. IWM is down 1.2%.. WTF is going on today..

    You may say AAPL is green.. but hey when everything else is down 1%.. a 1.5% up AAPL is not enough to make QQQQs green…

    I think energy might be pulling down RUT and SPX

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    damn.. ZL is not working…

  • katzo7

    U R welcome S.

    Gotta go to work, will be off for part of the day. Watch for cross of MACD on the 5 min. BUT the MACD on the 15 is just breaking above zero line, it has to go back down, it may not be that straight forward today.

  • amokta

    looks like bit of pwards, now lets see if it was a bear trap, or honey trap?

  • Long_John_Silver

    No ZL so far …

  • DudePlunger

    We'll see the reaction to the number in a few minutes, should set the tone for the day.

  • katzo7

    Short @ 1081.50, SL @ 83.50. I will either get stopped out or let it work for most of day. Have to work now, can check on iPhone.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    while we wait for the market to close the gap, let us vote on a simple issue… did mole get carried away with his new head-mounted drilling lasers or is the silver surfer preparing us for galactus' dinner?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/01/sto

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    ISM number is one of the best known leading indicators for spotting Long-Term tops.. It usually tops out a few months ahead of the market..

  • katzo7

    T=1075.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    say hello to gap fill

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    85 may be it for the news driven pop

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    warned about that 11 minutes ago…

  • katzo7

    Stopped out, everything green, hold off on new short positions.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Folks ISM is not just another BS number – it is very important measure that tons of people look at… It probably is as important as the price itself IMO…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Nasdaq and Dow tell me this was another bear trap …. just of a different nature.

  • Long_John_Silver

    Galactus is looking hungrier …

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    wait a while…. but yes, nasdaq has been bothering me, want to see sub 2000, a bounce and then fun time

  • derekste

    zero broken?

  • Long_John_Silver

    No signal this AM so far –

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Don't assume a pullback on gap fill…

  • gsavli

    look at them nasdaq and aapl fly. lol.

  • greedybastard

    I was wondering that myself.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    10:22 onward… headfake or reversal?

  • Kudos

    Having same issue

  • skynard

    Wow! Moon shot, here comes 1100

  • gsavli

    NQ chart looks weird. but that's nothing new.

  • Kudos

    EURJPY, almost 300 basis points since 430 am and about 100 since the ism report at 10

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    last week onwards bears are doing the same thing that they did all year long last year.. likely the outcome will be the same…

  • Tooncez

    If I was ZL I would say minor div suggesting bullish.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we have r% williams calling the top at 10:22 an already a second one….seems ppt'ish

  • gsavli

    this is totally pptish. i wonder, where do they plan to stop today.

  • DudePlunger

    Euro exploded higher and /ES followed. I'll be looking to limit my risk and minimize my losses on my short from 1082.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    spx 1116

  • gsavli

    might be.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but i still think this headfake reverses just now

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Why PPT-ish… Why not a bear trap… with bulls buying the dip and bears getting squeezed.

  • Kudos

    Doesn't matter what the cause, same result. It doesnt feel better to have a fat finger shoved up your arse whether its the fat finger of gov or the fat finger of the someone wanting a bear squeeze

  • gsavli

    HFTish, because of the curve of RSI and MACD, suggesting strong coordinated buying.

  • ricebowl

    If ^VIX closes red today, then there's a good chance we run to 1120~1150. That is what I am betting on, though I admit that this is very difficult to read, and I am not at all confident of that anymore.

  • n2thezonez

    The SPX rally was following behind an extremely sharp move up by the Euro.

  • DudePlunger

    I wonder if mole is having technical issues, haven't seen him posting since last night.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nail-less finger you mean

  • gsavli

    any important news from eurozone?

  • captainboom

    He's on the west coast. Probably still sleeping.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice backtest from twesday/wednsday's low support line

  • nugie

    ZERO LITE – Is it just me or is everyone having a problem with ZERO??

  • Long_John_Silver

    Everything is HFTish

  • Long_John_Silver

    Zero Lite is on – check it out

  • DudePlunger

    I lowered my stops from 1097 and 1107 to 1097 and 1095. So either this move decides to be a fakeout and reverses or I am out.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Fucking TOS got stuck again. Really sorry but I swear I tested the connection last night – was ticking the overnight tape just fine. I'm going to get medieval on their support team today.

  • nugie

    Thanks.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    HFT and PPT are different.

    Most HFT do pair trades largely… they dont cause or even bet on directional moves..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I slept in – sorry guys – was working the entire long weekend and I was exhausted. On top of everything else the new version of NinjaTrader corrupted my installation and I had to rebuild it from scratch. Did not stop for a second the past three days…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Do I have to say it?

  • n2thezonez

    The currency move was probably intervention. It is amazing how clumsy they are when intervening. They should have someone do it for them so that perhaps they could get a little more mileage out of their operation.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Like roll over and take profits at every green candle?

  • amokta

    whats going on, oil was up yesterday then down on open, now its up again
    also spx was down futures, now up in cash
    -is this 'normal' volatility – so far trend is for volatility still to up side??

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bankers in Europe are fighting back.

  • tradingmom

    Please tell me the ES is not going to form a straight up channel today. I do not want to trade that.

  • gsavli
  • DudePlunger

    We'll see. We pulled back to this 1090 mark and the market is fighting to hold support. Could erase the entire rally and close near the lows or find some more support and head back to the 1100s.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Nope. that is exactly what the bears DID NOT DO

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    We`ve stoped at 78% fib of the down move…something above here should take us to 1120.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    VWAP test coming up

  • raised_by_wolves

    After breaking through, copper is retesting 10 d VWAP.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves

    Couldn't tell you. I don't read news during trading hours.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Fade xxx xxxx, right?

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Guys, I've been trying to make sense of the action over the last couple of days and there are two points to make here.

    Firstly, the pullback was hard, but the IHS we were looking at last week on various equity indices is still valid and in play:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    Secondly I have a nice looking rising channel on ES that looks pretty viable here:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    A pullback here looks likely from RSI and MACD, and we are seeing one. It may well not last long though and my next upside target is in the 1115 to 1120 ES area en route to the IHS target at 1140 SPX.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Watch the fuckin' line.

    ($SPX*(SLV/GLD))

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves

    Convincing bounce off of that shit.

    ($SPX*(SLV/GLD))

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves

    What? The bulls have no balls?

    ($SPX*(SLV/GLD))

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • gsavli

    fancy chart, but what is it telling us?

  • raised_by_wolves

    The oracle told me not to short earlier this morning but to short now.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Now, I'm asking her when to take profits 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    from 10:22 onwards it's a sham, will it be revealed or not?

    we'd have to fall on very oversold for this to be interesting

  • gsavli

    oracles are all in ruins. so much about them making money.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Both pullback and ramp up accompanied by weak Zero signal – market is jittery…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Is the EUR doing an ABC correction? Any chance this is 12345?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • Bob the Horse

    Once I caught a fish alive?

  • amokta

    SNDK – final 'top' now in or is it still flying high like Icarus?
    (someone suggested this as a short a week ago!)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    TF tested overnight lows.. with ES 15 pts above the overnight lows.. small caps are mighty mighty weak today

  • raised_by_wolves

    With your bear hands?

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Yes, and regardless of whether the IHS plays out or not, I don't think we're done with downside here. We'll be back.

    Unless there's a break below this morning's low though, the bulls may have the ball back for a while.

    Looking at the zero though, you're right that there's little conviction to these upside moves.

  • tradingmom

    Mole — could you take the picture off the zero lite chart? My computer can't seem to handle it.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Contrary to popular belief, very weak TF (IWM/small-caps) compared to ES (SPY/large-caps) is bottoming action and not topping action…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I expect SNDK final top to be in Oct.. NDX/NQ is mighty bullish since the bounce from lows.. NDX/NQ is clearly pointing to new yearly highs…

    You have NDX 10% below the highs and SNDK at highs.. guess what will happen when NDX puts in a new high.. SNDK may go to 55+ IMO

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    In case you have wondered, why the US market keeps going down when the problem is in Europe.

    The US market was the only one to experience the crash in regular hours. That has altered the supply-demand picture in the 1050-1125 region.. and that must be fixed.. I expect us to range between 1070-1130 for a while to build volume and a decent support/launching base over the next month or so.. Before the climb to new highs begins

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Any one ever wondered why ATPG is the one taking the most brunt (in terms of price action) when the rig that blew up was built by Transocean (RIG) and operated by BP..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    SNDK has a target of 70 IF we rise, otherwise 30 or 7 look good

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hey Hamster, what do you think is going on with (SLV/GLD)? Which white line gets touched (first)?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • amokta

    i cant wait till october – we want P3 *now* (lol – all talk P3 seems to have died!)

  • BobbyLow

    Small Caps led on the way up but they can't lead on the way down?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i'll check your chart latter, but o.14 seems likely… then 0.15 or 0.17 before going for 0.1….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    do a centenial band for confirmation (i did) looks like a backtest before 0.14

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    still no P3 confirmation, ask again on 3 digits please

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    When you say led – you mean first the small caps went up and then the large caps..

    Most people believe that, but that is contrary to the reality.

    Near the top, retail and bag-holders just pile up into small caps like crazy

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    7 – WOW… you seem to be infected with Atilla virus

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    And you are infected by who virus?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just take the numbers and shove them down my throat at first occasion… i always share my views. 2 small remarks, my methodology has been mentioned hundreds of times and thoroughly explained tens of times (raised uses variants of hamster bands often and sometimes the centenial rat)

    BTW i was agreeing on you on an upward potential if there is a pullback on nasdaq

    p.s. attilla virus my fury ass 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, the short term variant of the attilla virus is suggesting we're could be initiating our drop to LOD any moment now

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The upsloping trendline since the last weeks lows is still holding…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    broke a couple of times but was saved often…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Bears are fucked now – royally – nice consolidation day today… this will provide the launching pad for leap to 1120 by tomorrow (likely)

  • WTFed

    anyone else seeing that massive divergence on the ZL we've been building?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Where is the divergence.

    Caution: DO NOT compare signal strengths from TWO DIFFERENT DAYS on ZL. Mole has warned about this SOOOO many times.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Its funny that Mole put that red line out there.. and stopped ES in its tracks… Its like Mole saying to the market “you stop right there, you mofo”

  • BobbyLow

    Well I guess that's what makes a market. I disagree for the main reason that I don't think the Institutions were able to suck in as much retail as they have in past years. Retail especially 'Buy and Hold Retail” has had a “lost decade” etc. So IMO, the Dumb Money this time around is ours in the form of cheap money loaned to the Intitutions who in turn were able to bid stocks up helped by a perpetual short squeeze.

    So yes there has been some 401K money that has helped drive this crap up but for the most part I think “they” have failed to get as many suckers in as had hoped.

    In the mean time it is fitting to see HPQ up today on the news of 3000 net job cuts.

    So even though news might not matter bullshit does and it is slowly but surely catching up with this market.

  • WTFed

    Ah. Thanks.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i see a iii of 3 underway… EW is usefull

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    iii of 3 in all the drillers or ATPG? RIG? BP?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Big move up on no signal… signal going flat again… lets see whats in the store..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    atpg, rig seemes like it aborted a 4 with an expanded flat (so it will be rising some soon)… but that's a 20 secnd look on the daily chart, study it well if you want to trade it

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    attilla virus again RIG to 48.6 then 61.7

    fair enough?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the action is dubious at best, but they haven't been able to push it when they get to the top… well whose friend is time right now?

    btw, RIG could well end at 19 if it doesn't break the 61.7 line

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    top is in for this phase… let's see the bottom

  • tradingmom

    So, are we just backtesting that upper trendline now? if we don't regain the triangle, are we going up big?

  • WTFed

    quick trip to the bottom of that tri. What a nutzo tape.

  • ricebowl

    Anyone know what caused the gap down a couple of minutes ago_

  • BobbyLow

    Could be if this is considered a Bullish Pennant (Triangle) but this is a Pennant for a day? I don't know how strong a formation like this is.

    Maybe someone more familiar with this picture could address it.

    Also it looks like we are trying to break through the bottom line now so maybe it doesn't matter.

  • amokta

    this whipsaw is making mincemeat if you try to trade etfs with stops
    maybe i need to try warren buffets 'value' investing + buy & hold methods (!)

  • ricebowl

    Buy UPRO in the 130s and hold for $.50?

  • DudePlunger

    Russell 2000 leading the way down, TF down 1.5% at the moment.

  • amokta

    nice! anyway, if you get on to a good run, these etfs seem ok, but with in 'inbetween' tape like it seems right now, the whip saw is deadly

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Now you are truly speaking Atilla :-)

  • ricebowl

    Whipsaws are always dangerous. I usually don't use stops; I just watch and decide whether or not it's a fake-out or real action. (I also don't use stops because you can't set tight stops on options; the bid/ask can run away without any trades actually taking place, and then when one does happen, it's already run way past your stop.)

    I guess I'd probably buy & hold SH, SDS, SPXU, or FAZ, although you aren't supposed to.

  • amokta

    was just trying out some small positions
    keep missing eg. dto

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    H&S SPX 5m, neckline 1083, target 1073

  • tradingmom

    I see it — it has a nice downwardly sloping neckline too.

  • DudePlunger

    Approaching 3pm, and we made 2 potential lower highs on the day. Let's see if we can actually break through the 1080s and head lower with some conviction or if the bulls bring us back to 1100

  • http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    QQQQ’s aren’t favoring bears or bulls. QQQQ chart. Q's at major resistance 46

  • tradingmom

    CTSH has the same one forming on the 5 min too — maybe neckline not as clean.

  • Clint

    Works really well if you've got a couple hundred billion and can take a controlling interest in what you buy and hold.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    chopfest from hell – this reminds me of mole's saying: “Trading today's market is worse than putting your dick into the wood chipper” LOL

  • BobbyLow

    Agree with trading Whipsaws. Also I'm not quick enough to trade them. And in order to make any money I need to trade the kind of size that I don't like to do for quick day trades.

    I managed get lucky (I think) with a screw up today when I took some long hedges off and it backfired. Fortunately, I was able to put them back on without paying too much tuition.

    I hate the thought of carrying my Long Hedges deep into the next downturn but I guess that's the cost of insurance. Although if my long dated OTM Puts get woken up it will more than offset.

    Fricken choppy whipsaws are mostly good for the market makers.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Neckline broken…1073

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Or Mole's inflated value sell & hold 😉

  • amokta

    ok, will do !

    right, lets see if we close at some sort of low today, or will it be a ramp up

  • amokta

    Yes, one should look at the candle from both ends!

  • jacksoo

    OK – so long entry 78 with s/l 75 might be worth a go? Short on break of 74

    with s/l 76 tgt 45 also worth a try?