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Time To Strike
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Time To Strike

by The MoleJanuary 15, 2016

Not surprisingly equities have painted yet another swing to the downside overnight. Which presents us with a very delicious short term entry opportunity right here and right now. Time to strike.

2016-01-15_spoos

This is the play: Long here while yesterday’s lows at 1871 remain in place. Put your stop below 1868 and then wait for the open. IF stopped out we may have to assess the momentum on the Zero. Assuming there is bearish momentum we wait for a quick retest which would be our opportunity to dip into short positions.

Whether or not we would reload on the long side will depend on what we’re seeing the Zero Lite today (you are a sub, right?). Clearly attempts are made to paint a support cluster but at this point it’s still early in the game and any longs are tantamount to lottery tickets. Keep that in mind and don’t get over exposed expecting a particular resolution, the odds still favor the bears right now.

UPDATE 8:58am

Stop has been touched and I’m now waiting for further instructions. It would be a bit haphazard to immediately flip for short positions and I will wait for the open and some candles on the Zero Lite before making an assessment on whether this was just a final FU stab to the downside or if we’re heading lower today.

2016-01-15_ZB_update

As you recall I managed to grab a long position in the 30-year bonds on Wednesday but got stopped out yesterday night courtesy of a quick run to the downside. Which is a prime example for how you can be spot on making a call but still wind up failing in the execution.

Mental Deprogramming

So I have decided to make it this week’s exhibit for ‘mental deprogramming’. I am going to look at this chart repeatedly whilst letting any negative feelings pass right through me. The key to doing this is to reflect on the fact that you are emotionally tied to a stock chart. Remind yourself that there is no predicting the future and that your forward projection was incorrect. Use negative outcomes as a template for adjusting your trading approach.

Lesson Learned

In volatile market conditions advancing stops to the break/even point prematurely is inadvisable. In the future I will wait for at least 2R before advancing my ISL to break/even. However I also think it is possible to advance to let’s say -0.5R after reaching an MFE of 1.2R. I will try that moving forward.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BKXtoZERO

    awesome, Thanks Mole

  • mugabe

    how’s your currency play gonig bobby? absolutely awesome:)
    sh¨t and crude!

  • mugabe

    wowza

  • Grant

    We have liftoff on the eur.usd. Looks like the break is coming today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It just won’t die – so annoying… 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I fixed the navigation link this morning:

  • kim

    we’re getting close to that support line

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    #1 Don’t get emotional

    looks like I have to work to do..

    still. :-)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liW-kWFiXtQ

  • captainboom

    Thanks Boss. Much easier to read.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It never stops – ongoing process. We are all emotional addicts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    monkey brain and all that.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    By the way your taste in music is questionable at best. Sick Puppies? Really?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    they don’t use the N word.
    😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yah but the music sucks. I call it Teen Angst Rock.

  • Round we go

    can you say power cords, they wish they were Tool. sorry gerb :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Two touches? Not much to count on if things start getting hairy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you have a point.
    LInkin park stuff.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    how about this icon, is it suppose to work? doesn’t for me.

    http://s17.postimg.org/kd2vbyf4f/this_one.png

  • kim

    i see three, maybe looking wrong, i don’t really mind if it goes right through it :)

  • Ronebadger

    Normally, I’d be all over this “crash”…but I was too busy during the end of 2015 to take my signals…so, sitting on hands…waiting for a new short entry down the road…patience…it will be there

  • Darkthirty

    Another rule is to liquidate short positions just BEFORE a limit down lock

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just shows you the number of comments. You want it to link to the comment section? I can make that happen but does anyone really care?

  • BKXtoZERO

    In TVIX at 10.25

  • ridingwaves

    this is going to 1826 area…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Was 20% short ON, added about 5% at .25

  • nyse

    ” I am going to look at this chart repeatedly whilst letting any negative feelings pass right through me. The key to doing this is to reflect on the fact that you are emotionally tied to a stock chart. Remind yourself that there is no predicting the future and that your forward projection was incorrect. Use negative outcomes as a template for adjusting your trading approach.”

    Stuff like this and the honest, unbiased transparency shown today is why I have lurked here for years now. Thanks for this blog and all the traders who share their comments and thoughts here. Best to all.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Long nq 4150

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not emotional at all right now. In the old days I lived for this moment. Now this is just one of many battles, don’t care either way. Smaller positions and keeping it tight has worked well for 2 years now.

  • nyse

    Same here. I really have learned more here than anywhere else. Me in 2009 was an absolute lunatic in retrospect.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if I go back and look at a historic post, how do I get to the comment section?
    only the post is showing.

  • Huey

    Thanks for the mental deprogramming idea. I like the long setup too, but waiting for a new high since we are still trading under yesterday’s low on SPY.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m suspecting that were we to breach today’s lows we will begin to see a ramping-up of participation beyond the last several days slope. This is because much of the volume from 2014 Jan to May was in this range.

  • BobbyLow

    Holy Humpty Dumpty Batman!

    I opened my platform a little late this morning and as it is loading, I have a little ritual where I say over and over in my head – have no expectations, have no expections, have no expectations. So what did I find? All 4 Positions were screaming. It’s hard to not get pumped up under these conditions but I’m trying. :)

    Thanks for your comment below Mugabe. At last print, SCO was up $100.05 Per Share and my GBP/JPY Short was up 1,651 Pips (Unreal)! The last time I had moves like this was back in 1999. The main difference between now and back then is in 1999 I didn’t have a clue as to what I was doing and I bet the deed to the ranch and eventually gave it all back. This time around, I am much more conservative and will not make the same naive mistakes that I made back then.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    OpX today.
    Sooo glad I’m not in options, I bet the Greeks are having an orgy!

  • Huey

    Lol

  • Round we go

    congrats, you have stuck to your rules and principles and have been handsomely rewarded.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Some context before someone calls me a jackass too…… there was a gap and a candle up to 13-14 area. Kind of obvious, it goes up or it goes down but this most recent candle above 10, I don’t want to see that closed. Stop just below 10.

  • BobbyLow

    I’ll still take on options occasionally but no longer than 3 weeks out. IMO, anything further out then and the Greeks have you bent over and ready to go. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Congratulations.
    yes, let those damn winners run.
    this may be your last big Win before The Big Sleep.
    j/k.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. It’ll be good to go out with a bang though. :)

  • ridingwaves

    what are you referring too….I once had a friend whom had a jackalope

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    nice rack!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Captain Boom might be able to help in that department.
    😉
    oh, the other Bang!? (blush)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Other than bigtime vol resistance more or less right here, its tough for me make any judgment about gapping and candles beyond this resistance right here. I think so much depends on the index right now; its penetration into that 5 month range of 2014 could expand participation to shoot us well out of TVIX 13-14.

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes, index is number 1. Just with TVIX it’s going UP or it’s going DOWN and fast. I want a break away, no chance of shooting star.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Put my stop in, going back to bed, not feeling well lately. If the world ends call me.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Good shi*t! congrats

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks RWG. One rule that worked well this time around is to chart and manage my trades with underlying indices or futures, run my ETF stops based on the underlying and the NYSE Close (unless price is in runaway mode) as opposed to Intra-Day Price Action. Yesterday /GC ran through my stop during the day but closed back above it so the trade remained viable. I use hard stops on Forex trades though because of the wild shit that can happen overnight with currencies.

    Speaking of Gold, I really don’t like trading it but because it (barely) is a fit for my system, I added it because I wanted to have at least 4 Horses in my stable. Over the next few days, I’m going to revisit the Trading Store again and try and find a replacement for Gold that works with my system. I’ve not had success finding a suitable candidate in the past but that doesn’t mean I can’t keep trying.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    #8, cease all trading after three shits.

  • Darkthirty

    Ten X your account is possible front month options today

  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    This is the 6th BIG Opex day gaps down since Jan 2015 (3 times ES bottomed on the day…) – Of course, last August, we did not…

    BUT the amazing thing – prior to last January – NO significant gap downs on opex day since December 2012!

    What a different market, we are in….

    -D

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • Round we go

    nice bobby, I have gained new respect for your discipline and dedication. what about IG bonds to short?

  • ridingwaves

    no bottom today….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I know, the payoff is incredible.
    but Mole and Scott said stay away.
    and I’ve heard it from some other place “the Pros see you coming”.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    go go INTC.
    I heard on a national radio once, that the Big Blue Chips are quickly liquidating when bad times happen.
    just a thought.
    Muwahaha.

  • Darkthirty

    Afternoon trade 1900 ES puts@ 325…..last trade 3100

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nobody can say that the bells don’t ding around here :)

  • mugabe

    yeah. risk management and portfolio management help calmness:)

  • ridingwaves

    believe it or not I’m looking at long entries in certain symbols

  • Huey

    Long never triggered, luckily. No trading for me today. Got to advance stops on EUR/CAD and EUR/USD though so had one bright spot :)

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    staying clear of equities for now

    could get go long and have the bottom fall out.
    or go short and get blown up by landmines.
    or wait for break of support, go short, then get blown apart by even bigger short squeeze

    all the options suck.

    going to the market to shop for stuff to grill during the playoffs tomorrow

  • ridingwaves

    I actually bought one of these for a boss of mine from Wyoming for his Bday years ago….he dug it…

    BL, awesome start to new year for you…kudos….Go Pats…

  • ridingwaves

    I’m heading up here to hike, cheers to all and have a great weekend…

    http://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=450

  • mugabe

    I dunno – huge drop, at support. Doesn’t look too bad to me. Position size and stop crucial.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Seeing the redwoods is a long belated thing for me. I gotta go.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I like the long option the best for sure since the stop is clear but everything looks so soggy. If things looked more frenzied and capitulative I’d be interested but not for me.

  • ridingwaves

    its not at support…that is lower…

  • ridingwaves

    especially with the rain were getting this year….its one of the most amazing walks you can do…further north than where I’m going is where you want to go also…

  • mugabe

    according to my lens it’s there or thereabouts … perhaps not including to yours

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh Im down in LA. Next time I make it up north going to allocate some time to see it. Everyone tells me its a pretty amazing experience some of whom don’t even like hiking.

  • ridingwaves

    Monday will be red….support is lower at 1860 first then 1826..big down moves on Friday will have the childrens scared….if I’m wrong oh well as I have been all over this move since the get go..

  • ridingwaves

    the drive up is beautiful, if you could cut over to the coast on hwy 1 on way back down, the lost coast is another place on earth to spend some time…

  • mugabe

    I have no idea what the market will do … I just think you can argue for taking a long position without complicated chart reading. fwiw, I enetred long day before yesterday near but not at lows

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    That’s a good idea! I always fly but perhaps this is a good excuse.

  • strider

    Closed Mon for MLK holiday.

  • mugabe

    interesting … MLK was when there was a big drop in international markets in 2008

  • wandering196

    HI, we are heading there in a couple of weeks (from up north) where specifically are you talking about (I have never been there)?

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. I took a peek and ETF’s like LQD and it takes too much capital for the amounts of potential gain. Also a Short ETF like IGS has almost no volume to speak of. I’ve tried other Bonds (Treasuries of varying lenghths) in the past and because of the wide overnight gaps on these things, some charts look a lot like a a 12 Gage Shotgun Blast of Buckshot from 50 Feet. :)

    You did get me thinking though and I took another quick look at the RUT and I just might be able to make it work. It has 2X’s UWM and TWM that might fit the bill. I’m going to try to do an extended back test on this with a tweak or two and see what kind of potential it might have.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks RW. My expectations for tomorrow’s game has been lowered greatly and that’s probably a good thing. The Pats Offense is extremely banged up. Some of the starters should be back but I wonder at what kind of level. So I still have guarded optimism but KC comes in with a great defense and are reasonably healthy with the exception of possibly Maclin so we’ll see what happens.

    BTW, I’m going to keep using the #12 Avatar until at least February or March when the NFL’s appeal of the Brady verdict overturn is decided. The NFL and the teams that set the “Deflategate” Fiasco up look like shit right now with the exception of Pat and Brady haters along with those with an IQ below 80. :) The NFL will probably take this to the US Supreme Court if they lose again but Brady will be long retired by the time that decision is rendered. The NFL has handled this whole thing about as bad as they could. This goes to show just how stupid this Billionaire Club can be.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Round we go

    I was doing 3x short rut and 3x long RUT for swing trade. On my swing i am lokking for 3x. On my longterm short 2x half and non leverage on the other. Give shout when you see an edge. Rut is at extreme. Will see how much more extreme it has left.

    Looks like 40 is good on twm. If it gets there.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    update on the 4hr ES candle paint dry.

    Spoos,

    could be fun Tuesday. provided there is no bounce.

    http://s8.postimg.org/n1lctupat/patience2_ES.png

  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    The Kerviel sales……

  • Darkthirty

    Anybody working today?

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Just to stay upbeat, I’ll go ahead and say it WILL be a fun Tuesday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (slaps forehead)
    what am I thinking, there’s all of Sunday night to mess things up.

  • Darkthirty

    Gonna take out the march low directly

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Needless to say, I was stopped out for 15 pt loss. On to the next scalp

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    off this week.
    Time to take little Gerb to school. I’m out for a few hours.

    put in those bid stubs gents.
    Muwahaha.

  • BobbyLow

    Will do and if I find that I can work with the RUT then I’ll wait for the next long signal because the train has long left the station on the “current” short.

  • Darkthirty

    Meant trading….

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    This feels like crash mode, but at the same time it doesnt, because its sort of a “controlled crash”. VIX is not even correlating with it.

  • Darkthirty

    lock @ 7% down

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for letting us know that this trade did not work as planned. We all have trades that don’t work for one reason or another. I believe that traders are more credible when they share their losing trades right along with their winners.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Clear expansions of vol, nearing next resistance zone but possibly climbing a wall of worry.

  • mugabe

    Here’s some numerical information about what sort of move we’re seeing

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Not trading any but watching this little bounce for clues. Curious to see if the S&P can hold 1859 at the close.

  • mugabe

    letting 2 open positions run

  • OzarkHillBilly

    You’d think it was March 2009,
    http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

  • Ronebadger

    W…a…i…t … f…o…r … i…t……

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Mole – What do you make of the Zero indicator? I see several signals, but bottom line is still staying below the 0 line.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Don’t worry, I’m in no rush to do anything here.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, let’s not over think this. As long as we continue to have a negative signal the odds for a bounce are low and the upward momentum will be limited. Quite frankly the ugly truth is that we missed the boat as the sell off started on the first trading day of the year (when nobody showed up here – cough cough) and it’s been down ever since. There hasn’t been an opportunity to go long or reload shorts. Maybe with the exception of Tuesday (yesterday was one big fucking bull trap).

    As long as we see concerted selling we need to wait this out. Insisting on long positions during a sell off is simply silly. Our goal should be to wait for the first big bounce and then assess whether or not load up on short positions for the next leg down. Yes, we may miss the boat – always a risk in fast moving markets.

    Bottom Line: Let’s not force this. The tape will bounce when it’s ready. Until then we should sit and wait and be happy about the fact that we didn’t get caught with our pants down near the top.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He gets it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Scalpius is having some fun with the NQ today! Curious to see if that long positions was equally well timed…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Really interesting sentiment there!!…could a similar patient bias have broadly pervaded most everyone?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks for putting it in perspective, much appreciated.

  • kim

    i wen’t long spx – 1 position – with pretty tight stop.

  • BobbyLow

    Keeping a keen eye going into the close and I think I have some work to do. As of the current prints, my Basic Material Short is at +4.4 R and I’ll be taking 1/2 off before the close. My remaining 1/2 Position in Short Crude is up another 7.9 R and I’ll be taking 1/2 of that off before the close leaving me with a 1/4 Position. My Short GBP/JPY is up 1,780 Pips and I’m just going to close it out. (This is sick man!) :) Monday is a holiday and as disciplined as I want to be, sometimes it might be wise to just walk away from the table for the most part when I’m this far ahead.

    Lastly my Gold Bull Put Spread is about -.3R down and I’m just going to close it out even though it’s still technically viable. With this much damage done to the equity market, one might think that Gold would be soaring and it’s not so I’m taking Gold out of my stable again.

  • Huey

    Nice work BL! Hope you have a nice relaxing long weekend with all of that profit locked in!

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Huey. :)

    I just completed all the transactions above. Could be some short covering as we get closer to 4 PM. Even if selling picks up again, it’s not worth it trying to squeeze the last few dollars out of these trades.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok, down to the last hour.
    OpX closure, and US Holiday coming up.

  • kim

    out nice weekend!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • nyse

    wow goot day

  • mugabe

    probably psychologically nice to start with a clean slate next week, too

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok, I’m gonna call it a day.
    beers on Gerb.

    1888 sounds good. Great way to start off a Chinese New Year week. (8-8-8, new beginnings)

    Hasta.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60682833808

    -GG

  • Mark Shinnick

    Personally, I’d really prefer to see a scare-the-children vol haircut for a day or so….but still have to hold at least a small vol position ON regardless.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good to see you here again, GG. Have a great weekend.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out TVIX

  • BobbyLow

    Yes it is. I still have a 1/4 Short in Crude via SCO and 1/2 Short in Basic Materials via SMN open but the major bulk of profits have been secured. And as you know, profits are only temporary until they are closed. :)

  • OzarkHillBilly
  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure Billy. Too bad about Bowie.

    Anyhow, have a great weekend everyone. Let’s see what next week brings.

  • mugabe

    I’ve heard of worse plans;)

  • mugabe

    This week’s UK charts are dominated by the albums and singles of David
    Bowie. More than half a million of his records were sold after his death on Sunday, with an entire quarter of the top 40 commandeered by the pop pioneer.

    http://www.theguardian.com/music/2016/jan/15/david-bowie-dominates-uk-album-charts-blackstar-adele

  • BKXtoZERO

    I personally sleep better knowing you FINALLY took some profit. You are a rock against the sea and it worked. Congrats on your system and your patience. These are the things others (myself) absorb, remember and learn from. Great Job.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, David’s death definitely touched me – I loved that guy. And I wasn’t even so crazy about his music except perhaps some of his early stuff. But he had this spirit – a brilliant light of genius in a sea of mediocrity.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • saltwaterdog

    Are Thor results still being posted under the new format?

  • Round we go

    not a plan, but the goal :)

  • Round we go

    i think it is a reaction to try to be holier than tho, cus of concussion scandal. Mom’s will be pulling kids away from football, but NBA should continue to climb as it is easily accessible and you don’t need “white elephant” stadiums.

  • Round we go

    buy volume right? time climb the wall of worry?

  • Round we go

    I posted this on jan 7, technical damage post.

    “holding all longterm rwm and psq positions for the 1900 target. and one lot of tvix. let see what overnight can bring without circuit breakers. I am sure they will pump money into it tho.”

    and I slept 3hrs. that night after being up all night the week before. the next day I dropped the ball and did a faceplant by flinching and selling before my target. i think I physically and mentally was exhausted even tho I was winning big. it’s fine that I sold may shares early. at that point i should just sit out and rested then plan. but i just cant seem to rest these days cus this bear is so hungry from hibernation. Bobby was anchored and rode the whole ride, of all the traders I keep track of he is the only one who got the whole ride. :) Damn good Anchor.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no! you pull out a PnF chart, and sit on your F’in hands mate.

    my PnF shows 53 bearish target price

    ..and that trend line broken, frame it. it’s why I simply detest them. no edge.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=TQQQ,PWTADANRBOPADF1!3!!!2!20]

  • Round we go

    regarding gold, Chinese new year. rounded bottom on daily?

  • BKXtoZERO

    smaller positions and you don’t have anxiety. smaller positions on more vehicles and being right over time is the road to success.

  • mugabe

    I can see it’s hit support and may bounce. don’t see anything rounded about it. v sharp drop down to current level.

  • mugabe

    hopefully uncorrelated vehicles. that’s always the conundrum.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no weekend post? man, you must be tired!

    I will be keeping my eye on High Yield Tuesday.

    http://s9.postimg.org/h9xjumkxr/JNK_big_pic.png

    Analysis:

    JNK/HYG credit is the smart dog IMHO, and something to watch.

    There is selling and a probing for a bottom. last week may have found it based

    on a 45 weekly cycle (red circle) and a spike in Q1’15.

    {where did I get a 45 number? – blue arrows}

    a move above the green band line, would confirm it. it’s a risky counter-trade to the upside.

    with risk comes profit, correct?

    bearish speaking, the down trend is in place, and may stay that way.

    based on two highs (black circle) a bottom may not occur till late Q1.

    ..and yes, that RSI could stay below 30 for many many weeks.

    -GG

  • mugabe

    currently getting completely crushed

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    not sure what to say.. never give up, just get better.

    http://www.quotepix.com/pictures/3138.jpg

  • mugabe

    An interesting take on the ‘futlilty’ of having goals and the need to focus on process:
    http://www.mullooly.net/focus-on-process-over-goals/8560

  • Round we go

    aud/jpy looks interesting. huh?

  • mugabe

    as bobby low says, better to look at the underlying (QQQ). tqqq is a derivative of the underlying. although the underlying doesn’t look too different

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks BKX. :)

  • BobbyLow

    I think you’re absolutely correct.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for your kind words Round We Go.

    The biggest reason that I changed to trading off the Daily and using wider stops is because I got tired of getting whipsawed in the market we had this past fall. I also wanted to challenge and overcome my achilles heel over my entire career which has been my lack of patience.

    BTW, I haven’t back tested the RUT yet but I have a feeling it might work out OK. I wouldn’t have even looked at it again if it wasn’t for your suggestion. So we are in a position to help and learn from each other even if we have different styles and systems.

    Anyhow it’s Game Time in the AFC Division and we’ll be back at em on Tuesday. :)

  • Round we go

    its only to show volume spike. I dont use charts of things with built in decay. remember my arguement with scott about charting spot price over futures or etf charts and I was telling bobby to track spot gold and I was telling bkzero to track spot nat gas. anyhow, I am tracking nasdaq. this counter bounce may have more energy than you think cus of the current momo. Tuesday will tell the tale. lets see how it progresses.

  • TheRooster

    if anyone needs me i will be re-writing my plan and washing the yellow of my hands

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I let this one stand but I had to remove one of your comments last weekend as it contained a commercial link which isn’t condoned here. Sólo quise que lo sepas hermano 😉

  • mugabe

    Yeah – I saw that. Your patch, your rules :)

  • Round we go

    starting move.

  • Round we go

    i am still on the 4hr divergence.;0

  • Darkthirty

    The only thing you learn from a pat on the back is that mommy loves you. Important lessons are learned with a punch in the nose and a kick in the gonads.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You should change your name to Blood Leech!

  • Kishore Kumar

    Thanks! To paraphrase, what Scott Admas wrote:

    Feelings of success or failure are only in the mind of the doer. They mean nothing in the grand scheme of things. What really means anything is what one actually does, the process. That is all that matters and leaves a trace.

    Goals may be good for giving one a direction but should not be used as the purpose. The purpose should only be do the best possible actions. Using goals for measurement of the purpose or “success” sets us up in a perpetual state of feeling like a failure.

    Ironically, by focusing on the process or best execution of actions, instead of the goal, the doer increases the probability of achievement of the goal.

    As it is, the results of actions are not determined by the doer, so why even seek fulfillment in or be attached to the result?

    Then, why not accept the doing of the best possible actions as a measure of success instead of the result?

    Incidentally, this is also called Karma Yoga.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Anyone trading today?

  • Huey

    I like that one too. Monthly is turning down and volatility is starting to rise from a low level.

  • BobbyLow

    Holy Smoley GG, a “Blood Sucker” is not exactly a warm and fuzzy Avatar. :)

  • BKXtoZERO

    in my mind….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    ..and back at the line.
    [4Hr ES]
    http://s11.postimg.org/79rpndc9f/3rd_time.png

  • nyse

    Lmao @ your avi

  • Darkthirty

    10 day channel says 78.6 @ 1910 ES …..If you trust channels / Fibonacci / et al

  • TheRooster

    hey Bobby – are you still in GBPJPY? I got an intra-day long signal from my system this morning………..

  • Round we go

    divergence from hell resolving, 4hr es RSI finally over the 50. let see what see is got.

    price discovery bottom rather that panic bottom?. will see.

  • Round we go

    i am noting a counter aud/jpy bull move opportunity. not longterm.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    confirmed. first thing I checked this AM.
    EDIT: but check the 6Hr.
    RSI 47.868 (candle up, candle down so far)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    )
    ( /( ( (
    )()) ( )))( ‘
    ((_) ) ((_)() )
    _((_)((_) _(())_)()
    | | || __| ((_)/ /
    | .` || _| // /
    ( |_|_||)__|( _/_/
    ) ) ( /( ) ) * )
    (()/( )()) (()/(` ) /(
    /(_))((_) /(_))( )(_))
    (_)) ((_) (_)) (_(_())
    | _ / _ / __||_ _|
    | _/ | (_) |__ | |
    |_| ___/ |___/ |_|

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for the heads up. I closed my position on Friday and am waiting to see what happens now. Price got closer to a long signal earlier on a daily basis but sold off again. It might be a day or two or even longer before we can get a close that’s high enough for me to jump in on the long side. However, things have a way of changing quickly so we’ll see what happens.

  • TheRooster

    yes, its been a nice run – i was stopped out a few hours later anyways