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Too Many Damn Setups!
36

Too Many Damn Setups!

by The MoleJuly 19, 2013

Let me give it to you straight: It’s summer here in Spain, which means temperatures are reaching a minimum of 90 degrees Fahrenhiet (i.e. 33 Celsius) during the day. The nights are super warm here at the coast which is great if you enjoy zipping around medieval city centers on your moto wearing nothing but short pants and a t-shirt. In other words – the last thing I’m into right now is staring at my computer. You guys apparently seem to feel the same as the comment section has been pretty dead today. Which is why I was looking forward to wrapping up the week with an obligatory market update and a bottle of Hefeweizen.

Well, I’m sorry to disappoint you guys (except for the beer lineup) but the market megalomaniac in me simply cannot ignore the plethora of AAA setups on the futures and FX side today. If you want setups the Mole is happy to deliver. So let’s dive right in, shall we? 😉

The E-Mini is gracing us with an inside day period after painting some sort of hammer. I’m also seeing slightly strange plots on the UVOL/DVOL ratio. Finally the NQ is falling today, so that inside period fits the bill on either side of its trigger levels.

Crude – I know we just played it UP but it’s painting a shooting star setup today. Now I have not counted but I’m pretty certain we are in an uptrend here, which means we don’t take shooting star setups. BUT a failed shooting star setup is a different story. So 108.93 is your uncle starting Sunday night.

ZB futures – inside day period and would have been an RTV-L as well had it pushed a bit higher two days ago.

We have plenty of goodies on the FX side today – here’s the EUR/CHF which is bestowing us with an RTV-S as well as an inside day. You know what to do – if not please check the cheat sheet.

More below – please step into my lair:

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I’m wrapping this week up with something educational. So if you ever find yourself in a German beer tent (perhaps in Munich at the Oktoberfest) you know how to strike up a conversation with the locals:

Prost!!!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://thebhbgroup.com TheBHBgroup

    As usual thanks for the great post Sir Mole!

  • Spalding

    Anything from crazy.ivan this week?

  • Spalding

    Yes, nice work and watch out for those spanish pot holes!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I turned it off after the message module went wild due to some stupid bug that had snug into the volatility warning alert. So I’m testing that on my end first to be sure it’s safe as I don’t want to be flagged for spamming. I just set up a new kick ass monster VPS which is going to drive all those strategies – expect to hear more about this on Monday.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The streets are in much better shape here than back in Los Angeles. I have counted perhaps one or two potholes since I moved here – and that is across Spain!

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Danke schön!

  • Spalding

    Great, enjoy your weekend.

  • convictscott

    This is the 6Hr Crazy.Ivan performance this month. Winners in blue, losers in red

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    AWESOME!!!

  • convictscott

    Higher volatility environment = good for the system

  • Bun Dance Kid

    I’ve just set up a demo forex trading account to give this a go when it’s rolling.

  • convictscott

    Make sure your forex broker can do IF DONE (sometimes called parent child) orders. What this means is that when your order is filled a stop loss is automatically placed. With this you only have to be at the screen for very short periods, and it is possible to VM to your home machine from a phone and do it (I know a guy who does all his trading like this)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t we know it.

  • Spalding

    This is going to be a great tool for me and should be for all considering the huge volatility we are going to see accross currencies in the days and years to come. I am a small business owner and I don’t have the time to watch charts, and truthfully with all the central bank printing, chart patterns are becoming increasing dangerouse to trade as the cb’s read the same charts.

  • convictscott

    Crazy.Ivan.Trending just turned on in gold 30 min

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • SirDagonet

    With the signal triggered, but such a long candle, where would the entry be placed? Also… Is the signal for the August contract?

  • convictscott

    Wait for a setup, definitely not on the big candle

  • convictscott

    Alternatively, it seems likely that the setup from the post last week “how to trap a bear” will be activated – you could play it that way

  • convictscott

    With 8 minutes to to until the next 30 min candle it seems likely we have a crazy ivan trending long GC 30 min setup

  • SS_JJ

    Second that :-)

  • SirDagonet

    OK…

    I’m not trading this (unless on sim), just trying to get a feel for the signals & setups…

  • Pervergence

    Been long gc for about 7 or eight days from the ID setup….very nice

  • Pervergence

    make that about 12 days or so

  • convictscott

    In this situation (breakout super strong) the highest probability setup is a failed short setup as a long

  • Peter Levchenko

    Hey Scott. I totally agree with the rationale behind such a setup, and I read the original post how to trap a bear, but The “failed”s etup on this chart does not seem to be a Retest Variation Sell. At least not the definition that’s specified on the cheat sheet. Is this some variation of the RTV?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s an inside period mate…

  • convictscott

    Hi Peter. It is *both* a retest variation sell AND an inside period. However the entry to the short trade (which I would not take) is on the subsequent candle, and when it was stopped out it triggered a high probability long setup

  • Peter Levchenko

    Thanks guys. Got the inside period… though from the chart Scott just posted above i still don’t get how that one is a retest variation sell…
    The initial spike high before the RTV sell is followed by a bar witha higher close… so that invalidates the definition of an RTV sell as per the cheat sheet? Am i missing smth here?
    Even if we ignore that, we then have a lower close (tick), and two higher closes (tick)… and then a lower close again but it doesnt break the low of the last higher close… so again teh sell is not triggered as per cheat sheet def…

  • sburtt

    wouldn’t you have been stopped on the short first?

  • Peter Levchenko

    yes you would. getting stopped out is part of life.

  • convictscott

    yes but the idea was to NOT take the short and wait get long as the short is stopped out

  • convictscott

    Taking a short off a strong breakout like that is a poor trade

  • convictscott

    It is definitely a retest variation sell mate :)

  • sburtt

    makes sense

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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