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Top And Bottom Performing Stocks For Week #47
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Top And Bottom Performing Stocks For Week #47

by The MoleNovember 19, 2017

It is Sunday afternoon and that means we get to review the performance of last week’s historical top and bottom stock symbols in the S&P 500. As you may recall these symbols are the result of parsing a database containing over 50 years worth of statistical performance data. The idea is to extract the prospective top ten winners and losers of the coming week purely based on historical statistics. The result is then sorted by liquidity and any symbol that is scheduled to report earnings or pass ex-dividend is being excluded.

How To Trade Along

Although being no guarantor of success, the long and short candidates posted here each week are intended to perform along their respective historical bias. One way of trading along would be to simply create a small one-week portfolio by buying the long candidates and selling the short candidates on Monday morning shortly after the open. There are no official stops or targets and all transactions are reversed Friday afternoon right before the bell.

For anyone who wants to keep track I have created a new WP category that allows you to pull all pertinent posts up to date. Eventually I’ll be putting together a summary spreadsheet once we have accumulated sufficient stats.

Results For Week # 46

It seems we are back on track as the last week netted us 19.72 relative percent, which means the return of the overall portfolio of 20 stocks is 1/20 of that, or 0.986%. Kudos to phantomflash for correcting my twisted profit calculation 😉

Long Profits: FTR=2.81, MRK=-0.5, ODP=0.31, LUV=2.28, WBA=0.37, MNST=1.65, IBM=-0.13, HRL=2.44, FLO=5.78, CPB=4.85

Long Profits Total: 19.86%

Short Profits: AAPL=2.59, C=1.27, MU=-3.08, JPM=-0.65, KEY=-3.8, ABX=-0.64, MRO=3.65, HL=3.96, NEM=-1.94, BBT=-1.5%

Short Profits Total: -0.14%

Combined Profits Total: 19.72%

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • phantomflash

    Uh, Mole, what I was trying to tell you last week was, as my trade-along real-money portfolios taught me, you wouldn’t end up with $23,940. You’d end up with only $20,197. The total additive percentages are 19.72%, but that means the return of the overall portfolio of 20 stocks is 1/20 of that, or 0.986%.
    Think of it this way: If all 20 positions lost 5% each, that doesn’t mean the whole portfolio loses 100% (20 x 5%). It means the whole portfolio loses just 5% — the average of the individual losses, not the sum.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, I think you are correct, mate – sorry about that. I was thinking you would gain x % per each 5% but apparently that logic is flawed.

    It’s a slow gainer but spread over a year it could pay off nicely/conservatively. I wonder however if weekly options may be another way to play this. Would need to be done live however as predicting the P&L based on the underlying stock percentage gains would not work.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I made the correction in the post and added a pointer to you for correcting my twisted math.

  • phantomflash

    The system might still be profitable, but only if you can trade large enough position sizes to reduce commissions way down. (IB has an alternate commission structure for bigger traders [bigger than me] that might help.) Or use enough leverage. Hadn’t thought of options, although there you often have higher commissions and wider spreads. If the stocks are optionable in the first place.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m filtering for the highest trading volume so a good number of them should be optionable. If options then it would have to be weeklies so that they resemble small futures contracts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    MRO,
    the sharpe ratio is low, but come new years, watch out.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fb3637c6e33e4e51a83c29f33b3147617d9522b846cd3c6fb60cc074df382155.png

    IMHO, any move above 19 would be subject to a squeeze.
    -GG