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Trading Cavemen
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Trading Cavemen

by The MoleSeptember 30, 2009

Tonight’s update is quite fun for me as for once we have now established an inflection point which allows us to clearly define the separation point between our two competing scenarios. As a matter of fact, it’s so easy – even a caveman could trade this:

That’s right – Mole’s charts are now plastered all over your local airports. The reach of Evil Speculator knows no bounds.

This afternoon I summed up the gist of the current wave count and nothing really has changed since. Either we’re about to start a third wave to the upside or we are at the onset of a third wave to the downside:

The implications here are of course quite significant as a plunge tomorrow would give us some level of confidence that Primary wave {3} might indeed have arrived. So keep your fingers crossed – today was a bit of a surprise to me – but there’s a chance that the newly banked POMO cash remained untouched towards the close today and will be deployed to bang equities higher tomorrow. We shall see…

The salient line in the sand on the chart above is today’s high of 1069.62 – we push one single tick above that and chances are we’ll breach 1080 and push towards 1100 and potentially higher.

Wasn’t that short and sweet? Hey, even a caverat could trade this chart 😉

See you at the airport.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • MariAroma

    RE-POST from last thread . . .
    . . . about GeoMagnetic Storms. Link is for a study by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta researchers concluding that stock market returns are higher than “average” for six days after such high activity hits earth. Do you think they can be trusted?
    http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0305

    . . . this is a study based on DATA, adjusting for sunshine, sunspots, seasonal, Mondays, Tax days, etc. Connection not known, but theory is that GeoMagnetic Storms negatively affect human psychology, borne out by increased hospital admissions (double) for depressive illnesses, heart problems, etc.
    . . . they suggest if you're looking to buy, you might do it during a “low” period the first six calendar days after a major GeoMagnetic Storm or if you must sell, during a “quiet” period such as we're having now.

    Here's a link to a paid forecast — I've been following the “free” updates after the fact. His market calls have been very good for swing trading. And I believe they are based on the earth's magnetic field. (You may have seen his ads on CNBC.)
    http://xyber9.com/Xyber9/AllForecasts.aspx?Fore

  • Bullturnedbear

    Hey Mole,

    The 5 waves up from 1041 could be an A wave. That would leave B with a bit further to fall on the open, rally into the afternoon C to above 1069 but below 1080. This would set up 1 October for a 3rd wave down. Just too many alternatives. I think my caveman brain may explode.

  • rhae

    Yes, I believe they can be trusted… at least more than Bearnake, Gikener, Obama, any of the Primary Dealer Banks, Government economic report and about anything else you can think of….

  • rhae

    SPX daily… I did not put so many lines on this chart to be mean and confusing. I added several studies because I wanted to see where most of the matching points were… I agree, if tomorrow plots a new swing high, this chart BLOWS up!

    another sign of a good prognosticator… always project at least a week or two into the futures… that way if something goes haywire and your chart does not pan out, No one remembers anyway…. (and make sure you dump the chart as soon as it blows up…)
    don't try and weasel out of it by saying, gee it must have been an alternative count or something else must be happening… Just forget it…. :-)
    http://screencast.com/t/DP69bLed

  • dullmind

    My first thought on looking at you chart was uhuhuhuhuh…..watttttt…..
    Then I spotted your comment, target, and the down channel, the other lines
    give possible pivots. Cool, and nice chart, thanks for the post will keep it in
    mind tomorrow.

  • Mercury2009

    we head to 1095 is my bet then down we go…a think a crash is coming…isn't it funny that October 19th is Monday just like in 1987? :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    As I posted back in July here on Evil Speculator I have cancelled all appointments for that day.

  • raised_by_wolves

    For anyone who's interested in geomagnetic storms, you can receive free forecasts and alerts from the Space Weather Prediction Center.

    https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/

  • Trader_Steve

    post to get e-mails of thread

    Steve

  • raised_by_wolves

    Say you follow Mole's caveman trading plan, and the scenario you just described plays out. You'd lose maybe 10 SPX points until 1069.62 where you cover, but you'd make up for those points after SPX drops below 1069.62 where you short again. If you don't already have a trading plan for tomorrow, Mole's does make sense.

    Of course, I'm implementing my own caveman trading plan: if SPX is below 1057.83, go short; if SPX is above 1057.83, go long.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Nice post.
    …I agree that we should see a rather wicked plunge-session next day or two if bears are on the right side. We started out September that way and it was a a fake-out. If we start October the same way I would not bet it is a fake-out.
    …meantime I'm paid to stay bullish :)

  • MariAroma

    Terry Laundry of T-Theory expects a top mid-October, but a correction only of either 8 per cent or 16 per cent.

  • jacksoo

    volume has been anemic all day on ES – what chance last day of month spends a lot of time doing pretty much nothing. can't see big mkt moves on qtr end – no rocking of the boat just yet.

  • Styrfart

    German Unemployment Change at 9:55 CET, maybe a pre NYSE trigger?
    http://www.forexfactory.com/

    Good hunt today!

  • humble1 ™

    molecool posts the easiest to work with ewave charts on the www, imho. my count is the (very) bullish one, for now and fwiw.

    for one thing, i label the 8/7-9/2 as an “ABC”. it is the ideal Time/Price package. for those who get into this kind of detail, note the following:

    * it travelled 26 cds and declined 26 points (1018->992).

    * the start of wave-A (8/7) was 21 cds from the start of wave-B (8/28).

    * the top of wave-B was 21 spx points above the start of wave-A (1018->1039), right on the gann 1X1.

    * 26 is a Fibo double: 2 X 13.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Agree – Thursday might see some action, but tomorrow would surprise me if volatility increased w any significance/

  • fuw

    Came in worse than expected, but europe is up so far.

  • Styrfart

    yep, Stockholm almost upp 1% on thin air! Finance as the locomotive! Good for me, as I went bull bank yesterday guessing for a flat up WD day! But just scalping, still waiting for confirmation of THE GRAVE DIVE! been waiting all summer, and been shorting to early. Yesterday I was a bit nervous as our friend “Lester” was in SPY calls and was screaming for help at the hope blog. Not to good to be on the same track as mr contraindicatior! :-(

  • fuw

    Update on the Euro/usd pair:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/fuw/folders/Jin

    We bounced on horizontal support and earlier resistance/trend, that now has turned support, and broke out of the bbullish wedge that formed yesterday. However, euro/usd movements before US open are usually a bit difficult to judge the significance of.

  • humble1 ™

    looks like the mercury direct energy if going to be released in a trend to the upside.

    fwiw: i have a major high coming in during late in the last week of october. it just might be a really preverse thingy and hit on 10/29-10/30 the 80th ganniversary of you know when.

  • humble1 ™

    (p.s. there is needed at least one site which does not turn into market unrelated chitchat. i have no problem with that or the fine people doing it; it's just that you can't have a serious market blog that devolves into chitchat.)

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Those indicators are “priceless” hehe.

  • Styrfart

    LoL, and I think annamall went long EUR/USD yesterday pm!

  • CorporalCarrot

    Some potentially interesting news releases today;

    12:00 AM Wednesday's economic calendar:
    7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    8:15 ADP Jobs Report
    8:30 Final Q2 GDP and Corporate Profits
    9:00 NAPM NY Report on Business
    9:30 SEC panel on short selling, Day 2
    9:45 NAPM Chicago Business Barometer
    10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
    10:30 Fed's Lockhart speaks on U.S. economic outlook
    12:00 PM Chicago Fed's Midwest Manufacturing Index
    12:35 PM Fed's Kohn participates in panel on “Central Bank Exit Policies”
    2:30 PM Fed's Tarullo testifies on “International Cooperation to Modernize Financial Regulation” Comment!

  • down_town

    Mole thanks for the simple analysis today I think I even understand!

  • springheel_jack

    I posted a couple of days ago talking about the H&S on cable (GBPUSD) with the top of the head at 1.71, the shoulders at 1.67, the neckline at 1.61 and the H&S target at 1.51.

    I suggested that there was a good chance that cable would rise from 1.585 then to retest the neckline at 1.61 and that this would be one of the better shorting opportunities of the year IMO as cable is very likely to play out the H&S, not least because the governor of the Bank of England seems determined to talk cable down to help the recovery of the UK economy.

    The other reasons for weakness in GBP are too numerous to list, but suffice it to say that the UK is IMO the only western economy with a currency more structurally unnattractive longer term than USD.

    GBPUSD is at 1.6090 right now. I just shorted it from 1.6115 where it was when I started writing this. I suspect that we will see it over 1.61 again today & possibly much of the next week as we complete the topping process in equities.

    Anyone joining me?

  • springheel_jack

    Forgot to mention:

    We also just broke down out of a short term beear wedge indicating to 1.6067.

    I'm scalping that & planning to re-enter over 1.61.

  • ultrabear

    Looks ripe for the plucking to me

    http://screencast.com/t/ldqNAGxA1PoO

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Morning…SHJ

    http://screencast.com/t/5obWFo9LA

    Like the idea, but I set alarm for 1.618, to peg that upsloping H&S, and “fundamentals”

    http://screencast.com/t/5obWFo9LA

  • springheel_jack

    A couple of days ago kemal_1 was talking about the way he expects the next week or two to play out.

    He was expecting a peak late Mon/Tues & then a pullback before the final run up to the top, probably over 1100.

    I was expecting a strong runup Tues/Wed before & pullback & another push up.

    Where we are now we could both have been mostly right, with his short-term peak a day later, and my strong runup considerably weaker than I expected.

    Where we are now though, I am expecting to see some strength today, but I am expecting weakness tomorrow & perhaps Friday, with a retest of 1039 in the frame as a strong possibility.

    kemal_1 mentioned a possible downside target before bounce of 1025 though this would obviously violate EW rules for a wave iv down, which is he counting this as. i have noticed in the past though when i back my view against kemal_1's I routinelytend to get poorer, so as TK said the other day, this view is well worth considering very seriously.

    On that and my own view I expect that wave v up of C of P2 will start Friday or Monday & last most or all of next week.

    That's my take FWIW so I'm not expecting a new high today & will be shorting the SPX 1065 – 1070 area. We may or may not exceed the EWI line in the sand for P3 at 1069.62. I don't think we're in P3 yet so it wouldn't surprise me, though it was very interesting that the top yesterday morning was just below it.

  • springheel_jack

    A very nice and extremely eloquent chart ultrabear. Thanks.

    I am viewing this as one of the key short opportunities of the year myself.

  • reddragonleo

    I'm still long from 1043 Friday, and will probably get out today. I expect mixed news resulting in a doji day. Then down Thursday and Friday, and back up next week.

  • springheel_jack

    You may well be right steveo, but I'd rather be a bit early than late to this party.

    Ultrabear's chart also well worth a look.

  • springheel_jack

    I wouldn't disagree with a word of that reddragonleo. I'm cashing in the last of my 1039 ES longs from Friday today as well.

  • CorporalCarrot

    I think this ADP number is going to be the trigger for today. Whether we move up or down.

    30 minutes to go.

  • ultrabear

    Cheers, SHJ. Now if I can just figure out what is going on with EURUSD…

  • goldpackers

    IFFFFFF this is wave 4 of a diagonal, then spx should trade below 1039; ~1025 before the final 5th wave move up. If so, favor testing yesterday's highs to complete B of 4, then down into Friday for C of 4.

    If 4 is complete, then we are headed up to ~1100 for the fifth. An spx close above 1070 confirms this. Gann turn days 10-8/9

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    lest flip the coin – shall we?

  • springheel_jack

    Again, wouldn't disagree with any of that.

  • springheel_jack

    I'll take tails David. :-)

  • ultrabear

    Ok, here is the news for EURUSD – and sorry for all of those of you (er, me included) that were hoping for P3 down today – we are heading to new highs:

    http://screencast.com/t/dMybxek8UQ

  • fuw

    yeah, she seems to have a sixth sense for good entries.

  • springheel_jack

    That's tougher. kemal_1's take was interesting. He was looking for a bottom perhaps as low as 1.445 this week & then a rise to a new high after that.

    Don't really have a strong view myself though.

  • springheel_jack

    Looking at that chart ultrabear, i would say that 1.445 now looks most unlikely.

    Might see a retest of the old upper channel line later this week though.

  • springheel_jack

    BTW, love your charts. Are you doing those in Jing?

  • fuw

    My thinking as well (see chart below). Nothing bearish on the charts right now.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    this is what it is NOW
    it does NOT mean that something WILL happen

  • ultrabear

    Too kind. Using Jing for screenshots of the IB Java GUI, yep.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    getting headache from all that “updownupdownupdown” – can we just trade it?

  • gmak

    All my stuff got wiped out. This Disqus sucks. I'm too frustrated to re-type it all.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    9/30/2009
    Futures approx. BO
    Daily Range Projection Low High
    /ES 1047.25 1060.25
    SPX 1053.22 1065.11
    /NQ 1698.75 1723.25
    NDX 1702 1725

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I use OneNote for all my records/musing
    serves well as trading journal (primary objective) and keeps backup for cases like that
    sorry man – that stinks big time indeed

  • ultrabear

    Well, no, of course not, but the EW pattern down from the high (even though – full disclosure – I was optimistically labelling it yesterday as a series of 1-2's) is clearly corrective and counts complete. So on the balance of probabilities…

    *ducks*

  • springheel_jack

    I'm hoping to persuade some bears to be cautious with shorts for a little longer.

    Our ranks have thinned a bit in recent months.

  • springheel_jack

    Thanks. :-)

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol big dump there….employment?

  • CorporalCarrot

    ADP employment down 254,000.

  • ultrabear

    Is that our fifth in Cable starting right now?

  • gmak

    Even though we broke the channel, overnight was the second time EUR ran into the wall at around 1.4636. It also happened on Monday.

    As well, there is longer term support at 1.4587;

    TD Waves (which does away with all the sub waves and minuettes) says that we have put in the peak for A wave (down sequence) or wave 1 of 5 (up sequence). If this is valid, then the next wave is down (waves seem to last a full equity trading day lately), followed by another move up above the recent high at 1.4674;

    I'll be watching the most recent resistance level.

  • gmak

    I have support for EUR (TD measure) at 1.4620.

  • Cerebro82

    here comes gdp in about 5 minutes. That's the real catalyst

  • ultrabear

    Need to get a handle on TD waves – sounds fairly similar to EW from what I hear you and DavidDT saying, but must confess I find your charts a little difficult.

    Nevertheless, 1 of 5 is what I'm saying too – we should get an abc down shortly and then a large third wave up towards/beyond the recent high of 1.48xxx.

  • gmak

    -254K vs -200K expected. Prior revised from -298K to -277K.

  • gmak

    Sounds plausible. whether we're in 1 of 5 or ABC, the end result for that recent high should be the same. It's after that the counts might diverge /disagree.

  • ultrabear

    Yeah I need to work on my long-term count. Will let you folks know if I turn up anything potentially useful.

  • gmak

    GDP etc seems to be in line with expectations. How is the market treating it? Up a touch from around +3 on ES to +4.50;

  • insite

    GDP -0.7 vs. -1.2 consensus.
    corp. profits revised to +5.6 from +7.5 (were 16.6 in Q1!!)

  • insite

    DJ Table Of Data On U.S. Corporate Profits

    .
    Q2-09 Q1-09 Q4-08
    Final Final Final

    After Tax 1031.1 976.1 836.8
    % Change 5.6 16.6 -34.2
    Before Tax 1337.1 1246.5 1060.1
    % Change 7.3 17.6 -32.8
    Current Prod. 1226.5 1182.7 1123.6
    % Change 3.7 5.3 -22.8
    Net Cash Flow 1544.9 1575.4 1559.2
    % Change -1.9 1.0 4.0

  • losershot

    Does anyone know of a good free site to see pre-market index futures?

    TIA

  • insite

    wow; looking at the GDP comonents, Q2 would have been -2.0 were it not for the increased government component.

  • insite
  • fuw

    Nothing I would put much faith in, but a counter-perspective and food for though:

    Euro/usd could be painting a retarded HS on the 4h:
    http://www.screencast.com/t/CZfA4lWoBYQt

  • CorporalCarrot

    So government spending was revised up, while corporate profits and non-governmental components were revised downwards. Amazing how the market likes this.

  • roncofooddehydrator
  • losershot

    thanks guys, I had been using http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/ but it is delayed..

  • springheel_jack

    Or we are looking at the left shoulder there, and are about to put in the head over 1.50

  • gmak

    My TD wave count has a wave 2 (wave B) target of 1.4598 to be achieved. But this moves since it is the low of the last 8 bars. (this is on the 1 hour EUR). However, it won't move for 4 hours. :-)

  • fuw

    If you dont have anything against russians:

    http://www.forexpf.ru/quote_show.php

  • insite

    it gets much worse. here's a table of the PERCENT change to GDP by component:

    DJ Percent Changes Of GDP
    Q2-09 Q1-09 Q4-08 Q3-08
    Real GDP -0.7 -6.4 -5.4 -2.7
    Personal Consumption Exp -0.9 0.6 -3.1 -3.5
    Domestic investment -23.7 -50.5 -24.2 -6.9
    Nonresidential -9.6 -39.2 -19.5 -6.1
    Equipment & Software -4.9 -36.4 -25.9 -9.4
    Residential -23.3 -38.2 -23.2 -15.9
    Exports-Goods, Services -4.1 -29.9 -19.5 -3.6
    Imports-Goods, Services -14.7 -36.4 -16.7 -2.2
    Government Consumption Exp 6.7 -2.6 1.2 4.8
    Federal 11.4 -4.3 6.5 13.2

  • Carl V

    if something must happen with ES, it is NOW: seems to be heading towards the high of yesterday 1065.75.
    Pattern speaking, the big “diamond” formation from Sep 28 to now is broken to the upside which if confirmed would be very bullish and has an easy minimum target to calculate: low from Sep 28 (pre-session) to top of yesterday + the same distance upwards = 1095.25, right on target with EW for the alternate soylent blue of Mole!
    But diamond pattern is usually a reversal formation. Let's wait until it breaks 1065.75 for the upside or around 1054 for the downside scenario.
    It looks really crystal-diamond now.
    http://screencast.com/t/AHSj9QdKvE

  • thelefteyeguy

    Government Consumption Exp 6.7 -2.6 1.2 4.8
    Federal 11.4 -4.3 6.5 13.2

    …ghey

  • ultrabear

    Sounds like a definite possibility..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    install NinjaTrader
    open GAIN or FXCM DEMO account
    http://www.ninjatrader-support2.com/vb/showthre
    free real time streaming quotes

  • springheel_jack

    Looks like it.

  • ultrabear

    Yeeeeeesssssss…… now this is exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about. Maybe I should just go and read a book or something lol…

  • TrendTrade

    Holy red candle! that was fun.

  • springheel_jack

    I'd love to short that one all the way back to 1.30 or below.

    EURUSD is really very overvalued on PPP.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    d-wave counts are
    LESS difficult
    LESS subjective
    and DEFINITELY
    MORE PROFITABLE

  • AudioTactics

    I'm long TBT from yesterday but otherwise just watching and waiting.

  • springheel_jack

    I'm sure you're right David. Definitely top of the pile on my reading list.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Most websites have delays, just a question of how long. If you install paperMoney for thinkorswim, the charts themselves are streaming. The quotes on the side will be delayed.

  • Carl V

    EURUSD down: almost 100 pips in 90 minutes and accelerating; however this could be a complex inv. H&S…except if it could break below 1.4520…would be nice

  • gmak

    Just went long EUR futes at the 1.4585 pivot with the wave 1 or B definitely in on th 60 min chart.

  • Carl V

    Gmak, you have the guts – congrats!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it is not that DeMark's indicators are better (am not loco to defend any “holy grail”) – it is that it gives you the BEST bar none odds in trading WITH and AGAINST the crowd – sorry guys and girls – I most likely took some money fromm you here…that is the game – right? no hard feelings? :)

    (of course 95% of traders who use DeMark's – lose money just like anyone else :)

  • losershot

    ah ok

    BTW, if you guys are tired of the bloomberg ecomonic calendar being so slow when it's hammered, try the cme group one http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/calen… it also includes other countries.

  • Carl V

    when i said below that it would be nice if it breaks below 4520, that was before i saw your post, nothing personal :-)
    And…I am long UUP since yesterday…but that's more for long term

  • fuw

    yes anything can happen, but that would be pure speculation since we haven't seen anything of that pattern yet. The HS I have outlined is far fetched and sloppy, but still there (at least if you squint).

  • gmak

    Carl. To me your insights are so good that I pay particular attention if they are against my current thinking. <thumbsup>. You make me a better trader.

  • springheel_jack

    I'll be offline most of the day as I'm going to see to people moving a ball from one place to another for reasons that may become clearer as the day progresses.

    Trading from my iPhone as & when.

    Catch you all later.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    god luck bud – you are one of 5% :)
    http://screencast.com/t/cC1IIkgGiJ

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    LOVE THE AVATAR Fuw sweeettt :-)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    LOVE THE AVATAR Fuw sweeettt :-)

  • gmak

    In my dreams.

  • gmak

    In my dreams.

  • ultrabear

    I will be doing the same shortly – think we have a little lower to go first (wave is too quick so far and looks incomplete) though we just bounced off the 61.8% wave 1 retrace

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    bye jack, I was just getting ready to post some thoughts for the day,
    Ridiculous data so far, I am thinking this green start might just turn red rather quickly…if not we may have afew more days of higher movement (sigh)
    But the turn is near my friends! :)

  • gmak

    Took my EUR off for a quick scalp. Thank you market gods, I will sacrifice a Venzuelan Bolivar at the next full moon.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    as a side note – TOS SUCKS

    had standing short order nq 1724 – did not get filled in spite of price cutting through on the upside
    had to chase it – that is second trade today
    first went short nq pre adp @1723 – covered 1718 before gdp
    might be just done for today

    just covered 1719
    11 NQ points today
    GeroniMOOO!

  • Carl V

    Thanks for the kind words gmak – we are only as good as our next trade!
    I understood your trade is a scalping or very short term- that might well payed nicely; I guess you will do what is mandatory here: push to breakeven as soon as you have some bucks on this one. good luck :-)

  • Carl V

    Great !!

  • Cerebro82

    Someone just pushed the /NQ up rather fast…..4 points in one minute bar…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    did you miss the memo?
    that word…eh..H.. ehh – is banned here :)

  • ultrabear

    Time to go long EURUSD? You definitely don't want to be short, I'd say…

    http://screencast.com/t/KadItovLJ

  • fuw

    So you prefer cats over Strummer huh? She is cute though.

  • Carl V

    To gmak: would you be kind enough to give me some insight on where to start with d-waves theory: book, software, web site? I would greatly appreciate 😉

  • ultrabear

    LOL

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Hi Anna! I'm feeling like the genius now for going long IWM right at yesterday's close. 😉

    Sentiment could turn quickly with the Chicago Purchasing Manager's number at 9:45 Eastern, so will have a tight stop.

    Incidentally ADP missed consensus but improved overall. IMO this sets up Friday's BLS Nonfarm Payrolls for yet another surprise to the upside. Since February the BLS has been a green candle maker. 😛

  • Carl V

    I'll see what i can say next time 😉

  • fuw

    I would wait and see if we get a retest of the support (trend and horizontal) at ~1.455 to go long. It wouldn't be unreasonable to go back there after this break.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Also DavidDT lives and dies by D-Wave. I'm an EW guy but more often than not DavidDT's counts and my own are saying the same things really.

  • EDC

    nice chart

  • springheel_jack

    Interesting short-term symmetrical triangle on SPX that looks as though it will break up initially Anna.

    Lots of resistance above though. Wouldn't be surprised to see a doji today.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Mac, good morning. Good for you…I still have puts on IWM and will add on any nice bounce. Its in a H&S pattern, may have a bit to go, but as in SPY I am preparing for disaster mode LOL
    I mentioned I believe the turn date is coming rather soon, Some time next week is my uneducated guess.

    Yes, but the numbers are still bad, and looking into next year see them worse.
    My shopping center in Urban Tampa. quite large is almost completely EMPTY…about 30 large stores and 25 small ones …that's a telling story. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Thanks Jack, I did say we could see 1122 before a real turn, but first we have to get to 1080 :)

    But either way we are close. :)

  • springheel_jack

    Sooooon now. Almost there. :-)

  • Carl V

    Thanks for pointing out – I read the posts to quickly to realize, I will send him a quick note.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Wow… charts at the airport… Nice. Best spread one of those banners I have seen is a naked chick sunbathing on a 50ft billboard. Gotta love the Germans…

    Skål!

  • Douala

    The Dr is in
    ~~~~~~~~~~
    It looks to us as if the five wave rally from Friday was wave 1-up of the final wave (E) up move that will complete the Bear Market rally, wave (B) up, from March, 2009. Tuesday's decline was likely some or all of corrective wave 2-down. Next should come wave 3-up, to be followed by 4 down, then a final rally, wave 5 up, which should be the highest we see prices until this 4 to 6 year Bear Market finishes, perhaps around 2012. End of quarter/beginning of quarter usually has a bullish bias, so that would fit the scenario where wave 3-up is next.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/GFZVHzxgGOBW

    The NASDAQ 100 NDX is disturbing. It is a dangerous pattern. It is a Rising Bearish Wedge, and is absolutely textbook perfect. The upper boundary has five touch points, the bottom converging boundary has three, both boundary lines repelling prices repeatedly. This pattern is particularly dangerous when coming with decreasing volume, which is the case, and we show that volume chart at the bottom of page 10. The downside target of this pattern is its starting point, which in this case is 1,050, about 40 percent below Tuesday's close. Prices could fall even lower, below the starting point of this pattern. What is happening here is that buying is being met with stronger and stronger selling as prices edge higher. Once prices fall below the bottom boundary, a trend reversal is suggested. This is compelling evidence that wave (C ) down in Blue Chip indices, and wave 3 down in the NDX, is approaching, possibly sooner than many folks expect. Could it fail? Yes, as there are no guarantees in this business, but odds are strong that it won't.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/OEDME1W8MJWH

    Weekly volume has dropped dramatically the higher prices have risen, suggesting a major top is approaching. The steep slope of the volume decline, the steep divergence, suggests prices will not reach new all-time highs before a major decline arrives.
    [Dr McHugh]

  • Carl V

    DaviDT, would you mind sharing a microscopic part of your knowledge on d-waves, i am really interested; any web site, book, software?
    if you don't want to share here my email is carl.van@nospam_scarlet.be (with the “nospam_” to be removed 😉

  • dollar

    Good morning everyone: dollar making quite a comeback this morning

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    thanks

  • gmak

    There is a book by Pearl that is pretty good. It ties into Bloomberg. Myself, I would avoid the DeMark book because I understand that is is not as easy to get through.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I am still tied up at day job covering for people on vacation through today. (That's why I've been close to a zero on the blog this week, lol.)

    Once that is out of the way I will be finalizing details on what I'm calling the Everything Bear Spread. This will look to make money on direction…on volatility expansion…minimize time decay…and if I manage it right, even hedge losses on retracements.

    My philosophy is, to reach SPX 666 first we gotta get to SPX 980, then 870, etc., etc.

    And speaking of shopping centers I still like IYR as a short. :)

  • ckeltner

    Hey big red,
    You mentioned the other day you had some photo software and might be able to help with a picture. If you don't mind and have a few mins could you see if you can get this one so it works with disqus and doesn't totally lose the quality?

    http://www.inner-connection.nl/schilders/Overig

  • Douala

    Mole
    Very clever post! I can see your creative juices are back to 100%. Glad you're back. Let's make some $$$.

  • Nightwind

    Read your comments and links this morning. Thanks

  • JoeBear

    Interesting concept. Would be interested in hearing more about the techniques you're planning to use with the “Everything Bear Spread.” (Are you trademarking that name? 😉

  • ultrabear

    Disturbing patterns in the NDX? Bring it on – my cubes are lying slumped and bloodied in the gutter at the moment lol

  • Douala

    AH
    You're one of our EW specialist, what do you think is the Dr close on his wave count? The $NDX does looks like it is almost done.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    click
    on
    nick
    :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yup, that's why I didn't buy USO in AH or premarket although I think the petroleum inventory report at 10:30 will be better than expected.

    Figured the smart thing was to first see what the dollar was doing this morning.

    Risk/reward isn't there, since I'd be fighting the dollar to *bet* on good news.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    what pisses me off about Perl's book is that there are way too many mistakes (still the best book out there)

  • fuw

    To clearify what I'm seeing; Euro/usd in no man's land:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/cfioWvJck2

    alt. view:
    http://www.screencast.com/t/CZfA4lWoBYQt

  • gmak

    Ay. There's the rub.

  • Carl V

    Thanks – in the meantime i discovered your blog 😉 that's all i needed for sure- will plunge in it right now!

  • Douala

    I hear you ultrabear. Same here.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I would like that to break too Carl, I am long USD/JPY 2 lots since last night.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if it's the best book, could you consider adding a page of caveats and corrections?

    best regards

  • dollar

    Report: CIT Group again on brink of collapse
    NEW YORK (AP) — CIT Group Inc. shares plunged in premarket trading Wednesday as the commercial lender is reportedly trying to craft an exchange that would cut its debt and offer bondholders an equity stake in the company in a bid to avoid bankruptcy.

    AP – FILE – In this July 20, 2009 file photo, the logo of the CIT Group is seen in …

    Related Quotes
    Symbol Price Change
    CIT 2.20 0.00

    {“s” : “cit”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} Shares of the New York-based financial firm, one of the largest U.S. lenders to small and midsize businesses, fell 95 cents, or 43 percent, to $1.25 in premarket trading.

    CIT Group is preparing an exchange offer that would eliminate as much as 40 percent of its more than $30 billion in outstanding debt, The Wall Street Journal said, citing anonymous sources. The exchange would hand control of the company over to its bondholders and wipe out common stockholders, according to the report.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Report-CIT-Group-

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hey Anna, remember how I said I'm expecting equities to move up today? Well, I'm putting my money when my mouth is :-)

  • dollar

    have no idea why/how that posted twice

  • springheel_jack

    Well good tools aren't enough when the artisan is incompetent. :-)

    Tools to deliver better odds are very powerful tools in the right hands.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    It will be a ratio put spread on the cash settled SPX options (the big ones) – but I'll probably do a straight spread first and then leg into and out of the ratio part based on market action. More details once I can think, study charts and work it all out.

    Time for NYSE's ding – ding – ding. :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    now – this is still a capitalist country – why would I want everyone to be right? :)
    (I do it once in a while on blog, videos etc without stressing out that Perl was slightly off due to typos most likely – Perl is the best DeMarkian out there)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Here's my chart on the $compq, I believe it's in its final wave v of 5, but it could truncate at any time.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • Vardoger

    http://dl.getdropbox.com/u/737329/20monthspx.png

    Chart is three weeks old but hasn't changed~ Close above today and it's a good chance we are in a new bull market. Between this and the macd cross on the monthly, the chart would be very bullish.

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    THE SWISS CENTRAL BANK INTERVENED IN THE FX MKT AND SOLD THEIR CURRENCY. THAT IS BEHIND THE BIG MOVE IN THE DOLLAR.
    After agonizing over the dollar pretty much all night, I am back. So the comeback in the dollar is artificial. The Swiss National Bank adopted a policy of making sure their currency does not appreciate “too much” back in Feb. And their tools include fx intervention. I have not seen any levels they are or are not comfortable with. But the Swissie is far above the level in Feb where they intervened against the USD and below vs. the EUR. So it is hard to know where to bet on this kind of action. Anyway, thanks SNB. Keep them coming.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Today will be the battle of the caveman trading plans. A few minutes ago, I positioned myself long with a stop loss that triggers if SPX is at or below 1057.83.

  • Carl V

    Hey Anna, patience is a virtue 😉

  • losershot

    aye, i have all my shorts set to sell when caveman hits.

  • raised_by_wolves

    SPX has moved up to my resistance purple line. On the next candle it *could* break the hell out of it.

    http://screencast.com/t/2TiuvUgfqaP

  • dollar

    or drop away, yes?

  • raised_by_wolves

    We'll see about that. The 200 MA is holding on the 15 minute chart.

  • ultrabear

    Bring. It. On.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Not everyone, only those that BOUGHT the “comments and corrections to Perl's Dwave book” by DDT

  • Joe8888

    Repost: of the UUP…..FROM LAST NIGHT….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall
  • raised_by_wolves

    I see you're following Mole's caveman trading plan. It's perfect in all respects except that I think it's the wrong number. My number is the low, not the high.

    This is what I told Bullturnedbear:

    Say you follow Mole's caveman trading plan, and the scenario you just described plays out. You'd lose maybe 10 SPX points until 1069.62 where you cover, but you'd make up for those points after SPX drops below 1069.62 where you short again. If you don't already have a trading plan for tomorrow, Mole's does make sense.

    Of course, I'm implementing my own caveman trading plan: if SPX is below 1057.83, go short; if SPX is above 1057.83, go long.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hope so, on my count EW mandates that this can go no higher than 2150's

  • Douala

    Thanks AH

  • Vardoger

    Chicago PMI in three mins, consensus 52.0

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Should be a make or breaker, please be the latter…:)

  • dollar

    IWM negative, seems weakest, maybe because of possible CIT bankruptcy

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee look @ the IWM sweet

  • Carl V

    hey – nice, the diamond pattern on SPX is broken/confirmed to the downside….ghhheee

  • raised_by_wolves

    I lost!

  • insite

    WTF just happened

  • losershot

    looks like we hit yours!

  • Cerebro82

    could it be ?!?!?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I posted earlier this might happen, so lets bring on the pressure bears! :)

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    looks like Chicago got leaked

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    must suk :)

  • Cerebro82

    OH SHIT! Are the bears back!?!

  • dollar

    yessss

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Neckline of H&S just broke

  • Cerebro82

    I am loving this!!! Ima little scared lol

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Bears never leave, they just disguise themselves as rugs

  • Cerebro82

    LOL

  • wooooo

    WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Is today our day???

  • insite

    i'm with you! fortunately short, but this is making me nervous….

  • Carl V

    Gmak, are you out of EUR – it doesn't move at the moment but will follow soon or late.

  • MrBF

    pmi 46.1 ouch

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • losershot

    despite bullish GDP, a market moving indicator, this chicago pmi which isn't even starred by econoday has trumped it.

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    this market is going to kill all. EOQ is a sure thing right? hah!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    not too chubby
    out of all shorts

  • Joe8888

    Updat on 10 Min SPY cHANNEL…Wow,, we didn't bounce off the lower trendline,,,,,

    Maybe finds support at 105.20 .618% retrace level….

  • jbrennan

    Lester must be shitting himself right now. You just know he still has those calls

  • Cerebro82

    damn this feels good. (gotta fight that euphoric emotion)

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    this could get really ugly me thinks….

  • ultrabear

    Hold your horses, bears. This is nothing so far.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    :)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) My face hurts LOL

    BTW they gave the longs no chance to get out, so this could be our 3 guys :))

  • Cerebro82

    agreed

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am making delicious APPL pie for everyone LOL

  • Cerebro82

    my face is frozen still.. I am still in shock..

  • BaldEagle

    Sprinkle of cinnamon, dollop of vanilla ice cream

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Ok, nothing more to see for today, closing the shop
    go on go on
    “if you are not with me you are against me”
    Churchill

  • Joe8888

    104.83 is open gap window ….

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    let's take out 1039 come on

  • raised_by_wolves

    So, my stop loss was triggered. As everyone knows, my inflection point was yesterday's low. Now that it's been taken out, I've appropriate action. I'm arming myself to the teeth. I'm loaded, loaded, I tell you, with March SPX puts :-)

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    high yield etf's still not giving it up. that is not a good sign. fundamentally, those things are stupid, stupid, stupid.

  • Carl V

    VIX running to its high of Sep 28 if that tells you something

  • Erikd

    Erikd's ROOF TOP PATTERN UPDATE:
    $SPXhttp://screencast.com/t/bhSpVi1rWng

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    We need to break 1040 to really get the momentum going here :)

  • Carl V

    but no move on the dollar, surprising….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Tim K mentioned the disconnect Carl this morning. :)

  • Joe8888

    sold some SDS @ 40.78…. thinking i could buy back after a little bounce.. 104,82—-105.00 area support

  • chumprop

    1040 /ES or SPX???

  • Vardoger

    Breadth 1:3 VIX, Bonds, Oil and confirm this move so far. Everything retracing a bit now except VIX

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    SPX Chum :)

  • PeterK80

    We aint done yet…

  • chumprop

    ok, thanks!

  • peder1001

    Grab your hats and ride that saddle! Bulls being taken for a ride!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Sure! :) wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

  • ultrabear

    Hey Anna. Must say that I am liking the look of the breakdown in AAPL so far. Looks impulsive…

  • raised_by_wolves

    15.00 is resistance now for XLF.

    I've loaded up with FAZ.

    My stop loss triggers if XLF is at or above 15.01.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    You still short Ultra…I jumped in right on time :)))

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    we got 1047!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! next stop 1040

  • MrBF

    give me 1044-45. I dont think we will go much lower than that. Expecting 1040 to hold for sure. Puts are looking so nice for once.

  • Osso

    As posted on Friday:
    “Having made lower lows than thursday, some Indexes will make lower lows than Friday lows…..this week. !!!!!
    Hope you remember and traded accordingly…..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    tastes good

  • TheMacroEconomist

    See? I said sentiment could turn quickly with the Chicago PMI report. Had to back out of IWM at 9:45 with a loss.

    Sticking with SDS for the time being, easy to get in and out of.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    This takes us into the orange section. I am liking it.

  • ultrabear

    Sure am :-)

  • Vardoger

    Back to mid-boll on everything, daily.

  • PeterK80

    May get a little bounce here…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&st=2

  • fuw

    Looking good so far. If the dollar could now show some real strength we might have something.

  • Brian_mk

    Am I lagging or is MA down pretty good this morning?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    target of H&S met perfectly

  • MrBF

    Out of puts. Im not waiting for 2 more points. Looking for a bounce.

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    Posted the first week of Sept on this site:

    Circle Oct. 4th, 2009 on your calendar. The top in equities could be aligned within +/- 5 days of that day. If the technicals suggest otherwise, I'll start shorting earlier. Otherwise, I'm going with that date. Too many indicators suggest the market has put in a significant bottom at 990 or so (low bond yields, overbought VIX, high CPC readings).

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, indeed! I switched sides in a blink of an eye though.

  • moneyfarm

    XOM is a tempting short. Will we finally break that sym triangle?
    http://screencast.com/t/5gSnuAAyE3W

  • Joe8888

    We are at open gap window 104.83,,,,, seems to be holding,,,,sofar……

  • Cerebro82
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Agreed, Fuw, I sold all puts on (except appl) on Low of day and now will reload on bounce. :)

  • dollar

    I like this:
    10:00 AM Dow leaders early on: none.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Gang I sold all SPY puts, at LOD, will reload on bounce :))

  • Vardoger

    If VIX prints 26.5 it could really get moving IMHO.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yea look at the VIX finally :P)

  • Osso

    XOM should hold 68.35, if this stops around here. watching.

  • Vardoger

    Why is oil so strong?

  • harveydent

    morning anna. you think we will still make lower lows?
    i bought puts this morning and thinking of selling only because i have class in a little!
    but i really want to hold hehe

  • Cerebro82

    Mole I know you are cautiously loving this 😉

  • thelefteyeguy

    so what's the confirmation that we topped at 1080? (and we are riding the iceberg down below the waterline)

  • PeterK80

    I'm out too Anna. I am hoping maybe we make it to 1052-1053 and I will reload again… unless we just fall apart here.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Harvey, I sold mine, and will reload on bounce (I hope we get one here) but it's looking auspicious.

    G/L Harvey. :)

  • rhae

    No aurgument there either, my super messy SPY daily chart I put up last night… easy to miss. not everyone stays up 24/7 http://screencast.com/t/TlX3rtdaIa

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I could't let that easy profit go, IMHO never a bad move, we will get a bounce here shortly. :)

  • Osso

    we got the lower low in some Indexes…..!!!

  • rhae

    I C where they dropped the Napalm bomb (market NAPM not a real one) this morning… Seems to be having the same effect tho…

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I'm still holding the SDS for the moment – but looking out for the exit.

    PS I just looked now and IWM is down almost as much as SDS is up percentage wise. Anyone who didn't get out right at the Chicago PMI number really got hammered.

  • http://twitter.com/EZEnergy Leib Schaeffer

    bought the 490OEX at 1045 es level for all day hold

  • thelefteyeguy

    thanks Osso

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yea sorry about that Mac, remember what I told you earlier. H&S pattern and now it's confirmed. On IWM

    Hang in there but on bounce I would unload that one. :)

  • Cerebro82

    Still holding short… We bears have been waiting for a while, still more to go.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I just reloaded on teeny bounce. here :)

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    xom….It's going to be fun when the triangle breaks…

  • Vardoger

    I'm not selling jack here, loaded and ready to crack a beer. We get a reversal on volume or the landscape changes I'll act accordingly FWIW. I'm rolling with Mole's count here….

  • bshah

    Guys,
    How does Google look inlight of BIDU's earnings…? Do you guys think they both will bounce a bit to their highs again…? Goog has dropped almost $10/-

  • Vardoger

    lol, which one?

  • PeterK80

    I hope so… dont want to miss this ride…

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    The Biggun as opposed to the littleun.

  • goldpackers

    1031- 1036 spx into tomorrow a.m.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    stay the course – filter out intraday noise

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Adding more SPY Oct 103's here :)

  • Nightwind

    The dow took out last weeks low

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Exited SDS when I saw the momentum running out. Now looks like a bounce indeed and SDS is trading under $41.

  • Anonymous

    bought the 490 OEX at 6.40 when es found support at 1045 for ALL DAY HOLD

  • Offtimer

    P3 fools everybody down and lets nobody in after the gates close. Lets see how much is lost on the month in one day.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    good idea

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Someone wake me up when SPX gets to 950 lol Until then, i will be sleeping with my teddy bear holding my March puts…..zzzzzzzzzzzz

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    SPY update
    reiterating C move below 104
    http://screencast.com/t/o5OiUxH4Qop

  • Erikd

    Erikd's ROOF TOP PATTERN UPDATE:
    $SPXhttp://screencast.com/t/bhSpVi1rWng

  • Tom_27

    I am not going anywhere either :-) This is what happened back in March, I thought it was only a small bounce. If I only held it for at least a month longer… but that is a different story :-) Good luck to us bears. We've been waiting for this for a good while.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Eric link not working??

  • CorporalCarrot

    So folks, do I take it this adds to evidence that P3 may have already started?

  • Osso

    XOM double bottom…or something good for us shorts….if it keeps goin down…..Looks bearish.
    any opinion..?

  • Nightwind

    Does the dow low confirm that this is P3, but not confirmed by spx?

  • Bart7
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Agreed Osso :)

  • losershot

    put a space between

  • Wake2Wake

    Mr Vix…you sleeping with mar 70p?

  • jr9876

    Geronimo got stopped out today since last Fri., 2 1/2 pts down from target when alert hit. I didn't take alert since market was selling off. Let's have 5-6 winners now Geronimo !

  • insite

    wow; apparently chicago PMI subscribers get a three minute advance flash of the PMI data:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chicago-pmi-su

  • Douala

    Bart
    A heads up on ErikD be very careful of him and his crazy patterns.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    P3 will only be “confirmed” under P1 lows – not settling for anything less

  • ultrabear

    Not really. Need to take out SPY low of $104.08 or whatever is was first before you can so much as raise an eyebrow.

  • Douala

    Bull shit on you crazy a*** patterns.

  • Cerebro82

    if the vix breaks a little more here, we might really see some fireworks
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Can't get in SOH, can anybody…disqus sucks…?

  • thelefteyeguy
  • Erikd

    Erikd's ROOF TOP PATTERN UPDATE:
    $SPX http://screencast.com/t/bhSpVi1rWng

  • Vardoger

    Dax sold off 100 points straight down in 30 minutes.

    Favored scenario right now is a retest of yesterday's /es channel lower boundary at 1046 before either getting back inside or rejecting

  • Douala

    May I ask what you are calling P1 lows DavidDT?

  • thelefteyeguy

    ghey…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Appears Market is waiting for confirmation of the Oil inventories (come on be bearish, lots o Oil please) :)
    BTW the $TRIN is over 2.00 very bearish signal guys :)))

  • shortcover

    raising stops on sds, qid…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    yea

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I have no clue – just teasing EW-avers

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Bob Piss-on-me looks like he is about to cry. hahahahah

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it will be bearish, but it does not mean market will go further down on it

  • Wake2Wake

    petro report…big pivot test in 1 min

  • CorporalCarrot

    Anna,

    Do you think we will re-visit the lows today, or is it likely that with it being end of quarter, people will do everything possible to hold on to what they have?

  • dollar

    10:27 AM Foreclosures jumped 16% in Q2 to 2.9% of all serviced mortgages, delinquencies hit 8.5% of all mortgages, while home retention actions such as loan mods were up by 21.7%, according to a report today from the OTS. Report says data continues to reflect “negative trends influenced by weakness in economic conditions including high unemployment and declining home prices in weak housing markets.”

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • losershot

    2.8 m barrels

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    don't even ask what kind of bribe I had to pay to make it happen

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Ah, I thought the subscribers got 5 minutes actually. I saw the big negative TICKs and price action and figured that the PMI *might* be bad. So I grabbed SDS right at that point.

    However, I didn't sell my IWM long until the public report came over the news feed. In retrospect this was a mistake.

    Silly morning: the loss in IWM offsets most of the gain in SDS so I'm about where I started.

  • Joe8888

    M A Sell pattern seems to be forming…..

  • rhae

    SPY 60m… I have price struggleling at gann fan and minor support. If that busts, might get down to 103.80 area which matchedsyour projection…

    http://screencast.com/t/TlX3rtdaIa

  • Osso

    needs confirmation….!!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    101.80 target

  • innatedc

    Kirk: Scotty, we need more power….!!!!

  • innatedc

    Good morning everyone …..we having fun yet? Sorry I'm late.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Carrot, I think we do, but like you mentioned they are going to try and keep this beast afloat, my thinking is they won't be able too. :) thus Moles bearish color, can't remember what color is is right now. but we plunge

  • Nightwind

    Thanks….I guess all indices must confirm before that call is made?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm refining my FAZ/XLF stop. If, God forbid, bulls get XLF up to 15, they can pull off 15.01. However, I seriously question their ability to get it up any further than 15.06.

  • dollar

    10:32 AM Petroleum Inventories: Crude +2M vs. consensus of -2M. Gasoline -1.6M vs. +1M. Distillate +0.3M vs. +1.2M. Utilization down 1% to 84.6%. Nov. crude futures flat at $66.70.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    DOW set a new low and has violated wave 1 highs

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Inna we need the $DXY to pull it 's weight here. :)

  • Bart7

    what about S&P?

  • innatedc

    Agreed its floundering around like a fish on a boat…

  • Cerebro82

    NQ one minute. If we break this mini countertrend channel, then I think it accelerates.
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    not yet, 1039.47 is the mark

  • mattco

    Look like a Bear Flag is forming now. But what the hell do I know?

  • innatedc

    There's a stall at resistance on the 30 Yr futs as well….

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Dow low? this would be a dow low!

    http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    we need the dollar to start pulling some weight here to see more lows.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Looks like it's trying a bit here. sheesh come on

  • Carl V

    i like this horizonta

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    We need central bankers here to stop relying on the kindness of others and get their head out of their ass.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    1704 nq might be another short entry
    http://screencast.com/t/wwxXmWp7oC

  • Carl V

    I like this horizontal congestion on the 5 min bars: if it breaks below the objective is < 1032 SPX

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Does it look like people have started reducing refining?

    oops, green sprouts turning bad?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Typo there: for crude it was +2.8M vs. consensus of +2M.

    Looks just like the American Petroleum Institute's numbers from last night.

  • Vardoger

    If this is a flag on spx it's target is about 1031 which would coincide with support (bodies, wicks are about 1036) at the left shoulder that we built at the end of August.

  • innatedc

    Thanks Var…

  • Cerebro82

    /ES looks like a triangle on the one minute chart
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

  • PeterK80

    XLF looking really weak here even on this little bounce… just reloaded shorts added FAZ to the list

  • Cerebro82

    /ES looks like a triangle on the one minute chart
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

  • Osso

    let them buy the dip…..

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    got it thanks Bart :-)

  • dollar

    Fed's Lockhart sounds a cautious note, warning it's still to early to talk about exits, or to declare victory. “We all ardently want to believe the nation is on the economic comeback trail. I don't think we are served by declaring prematurely that we're in the clear.”

  • gmak

    Go to a meeting and the markets dive. Hello!

    Must have been the Chicago purchasing managers, right?

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    Aussie$ and Crude not playing along

  • bullethead

    They have been for a while now. A few weeks everyone saw oil inv decline and got bullish on it but the reason was the refiners didn't want more inventory. Set the tone for some good entries on the short side

  • Trader_Steve

    EWI has labeled the move to 1069.62 as a c wave of an elongated irregular. If so, it's one of the largest I've seen.

    Any thought on making the previous high that they labeled as V a III instead and 1069.62 becomes the 5th wave and it's a failure? It would argue well to clean up that down move where the “v” wasn't all that clean to be wave IV.

    Yes/No/Maybe?

    Steve

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Dollar has to chime in and help here, then we can really go down. sheesh I think the FED must be selling with hands and feet (the $DXY)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    So as the dollar keeps going down, we will not be able to hang on here ;(((((

  • Cerebro82

    A truncated 5th would just be academic if the path is down IMO

  • Bart7

    UUP hitting LOD, USO picking up…

  • insite

    i think yesterday's POMO cash settles in ten minutes…..

  • ultrabear

    Sorry to be a traitor but I am long EURUSD…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Sheeshhhhhhhhhhhhh ticks me off

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    That's ok, :)
    Adding more IWM puts here Nov 60's

  • gmak

    Short EUR at top of latest TD SELL setup on 3 min (Yeah, I know – but I like to dance in between the raindrops.)

  • gmak

    SPX is now bouncing back towards the pivot at 1050.53. 13 min SPX shows possibly a juicy bear flag on the end of that 18 poit staff.

  • Bart7

    small wedge on S&P 5 min breaking to the upside?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    EU update – working the plan
    http://screencast.com/t/XPZs0lH0JI

    You still long?

  • Vardoger

    /qm just tested Monday's highs on volume and pulling back, for the moment.

  • innatedc

    Not concerned about the dollar, Anna?

  • MrBF

    buying oct calls if spx crosses 1050. oil up, still thinking we get more of a bounce today.

  • Trader_Steve

    Gore Vidal on America…”Obama Won't Save Us.”

    http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_sty

    Now if BIG TIME liberals open their eyes and realize the mess, perhaps things are setting up for the hell that most of us suspect.

    Vidal fears his attempt at a military dictatorship. I'd be surprisedat that as I know a lot of cops and servicemen and they know right from wrong.

    Steve

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    not yet

  • gmak

    Nope. I took a scalp before my meeting. Now I'm short on the 3 min SELL setup. Gonna scalp a bit more then sit back and reconnoiter (sp?) the storm.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    nuh…just was suppose to happen

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hey Rats, I'm compiling a list of things we need for the first part of our trip, the first leg of P3.

    We need LQD to break its trend line.
    We need COMP to break its 200 month EMA.
    We need DXY to move up above 77.50.

    What else do we need?

  • ultrabear

    already have done.

  • innatedc

    Clean break of 1040 on ES…..with volume….

  • Cerebro82

    We need Bernanke and Geithner to take a vacation together

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    anyone seeing Mole lately?
    I bet he is on his way to Costa Rica to take a look at ne wproperty

  • innatedc

    Dollar seems to want to keep 77….not willing to give it up…

  • Trader_Steve

    Hi Anna,

    There is the point at which an entre nation's assets are considered crap. I don't think we are there yet ONLY because Spain is entering a depression (-10% GDP) and Europe is in as bad a shape as we are.

    We need a good sized war for the economy. I heard we are building 7 more (we have 3 now) massive bombs that hit and dig 60 yds underground and then explode. Ain't technology grand? I wonder where they might be used as we know damn well that we aren't going to be the first nation to launch a nuke. If we did, I think we'd go into a depression on the worldwide boycott of our products alone.

    Steve

  • Osso

    watching XOM chart: under 67.80…a descending triangle could form. watching 67.83 previous low….and 67.63.

  • dollar

    I see the dollar as neutral here so far, sitting right on it's pivot of 76.9xx. It'll get better as other currencies face their own brown shoots…

  • gmak

    Volume chart shows strong overhead resistance for SPX at 1050 and above for quite a while. Someone must have fat fingered that drop (as I look back over what happened).

  • raised_by_wolves

    Last I checked, SPY only had 11.9 million. Do you think there's any chance we'll see the volume we need later today?

  • Bart7

    I see 80 million on SPY

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I have manually recalculated C daily target on SPX (since my software only shows C till the “lock” moment) – it is 1113, so we are still in down wave…or it has just ended and new down wave is starting… and daily up wave sequence might be discarded at any moment

  • peder1001

    11.9?? im seeing 83.7 and counting

  • Osso

    get rid of GS program buying…

  • gmak

    Got out of my EUR scalp before it turns into a forced trade. something is making me uncomfortable. When I look at the 1 hour chart, I see that we broke above resistance at 1.4587 in the early AM and have recently gone back down to revist. This could be a precursor to a run up here – which would not help DXY, I'm afraid.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah, and while they're on vacation, they need to get called back.

  • MrBF

    bought oct calls. oil up, vix coming down, bounce is a coming.

  • Trader_Steve

    The isssue is that in a day or two, yes, it would be academic to label it as such. But is it what has likely happened for if it did, you can bet the farm.

    Steve

  • Bart7

    UUP new lows… down .12 now

  • innatedc

    yep we have 80 mil…..but as for your question…I'm not sure maybe later today if no pomo ramps. We are still under my famous downsloping volume trendline and we need it to peek its head above that line…

  • gmak

    SHort term EUR wave count (3 min) shows EUR putting in wave 4 of 5 down, so there may be another leg down. Don't think it will have enough impact to help ES break 1040 on volume.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    $

  • Cerebro82
  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    $

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    i can just hear the bulls now, “Wow… that was scary. Glad that's over with. Just Brutal…. OK… Lets party!”

  • raised_by_wolves

    After the spike, I'm now seeing 15.6 million in my volume pane.

  • peder1001

    could be due to a whole host of reasons. unexpected decline in supply, increased demand, investors flocking away from equities?

    your pick is as good as mine

  • Bart7

    delayed quotes?

  • Osso

    USD dropping

  • peder1001

    well im seeing 85M now.. whos your broker

  • Trader_Steve

    He came “this close” to saying that all Bernanke needed was a big banner up to mimic Bush with “Mission Accomplished.”

    Steve

  • raised_by_wolves

    Oops, I confused my daily and 60 minutes charts there for a moment.

  • dollar

    Petroleum Inventories: Crude +2M vs. consensus of -2M. Gasoline -1.6M vs. +1M. Distillate +0.3M vs. +1.2M. Utilization down 1% to 84.6%. Nov. crude futures flat at $66.70

  • raised_by_wolves

    I caught myself reading the hourly bar. Silly me.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Switched back from day job computer for a moment. As I said I would be watching the buck to decide to buy oil. DXY hit 77 at about 10:40 and then retreated. That was my buy signal for USO. Now 77 is disappearing in DXY's rear view mirror.

    The inventory report, widely expected, just moved oil to the launching pad. It's the dollar now that's doing the heavy lifting.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Alright, I'm on the same page now. 82.5 M it is.

  • Bart7

    Investors Intel update, Bulls up to 50%, Bears down to 23%
    http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/ma

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I said just that yesterday.

    And I have a special reason for wanting this wave ending at 1069

    1069 is .618 beyond the 741 (nov.2008 bottom) to 943 (january 2009 top A)

    So 666 was a B flat beyond control or an expanding triangle B

  • Cerebro82

    Volume to this mini-countertrend move is drying up.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Steve, they are crap already aren't they heheheh we are next then…it's just the same old rigged BS to me
    Now this is the end of the quarter, so I felt that our big down move would be next week. I am holding on to my puts

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Mentioned DRI last week… Anyone else get in front of today's move? Same with MA, Oct 200 Puts I got yesterday at a comfortable double.

    Skål!

  • raised_by_wolves

    There was a big sell by a big seller? Is that what you mean by “fat fingered that drop”?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    reversal candle on the 60 min UUP, $ could bounce soon

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup.. one more push up should do it for today…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Gang Personally I am hanging on and have added to my puts. I am thinking that the EOQ might give the bulls a little help, but next week. Our P3 will continue IMHO ;)))

    Now that being said it's 70 degrees here in tampa 20 degrees cooler than yesterday and it's gorgeous out..kind of day you live for. So i may head out after lunch and Carpe Diem

  • rhae

    David DT, sorry about that last reply, Disqis does always pick up the proper c/p, so will do it manually… easy to miss chart which matches your lower target area..
    Daily chart super messy http://www.screencast.com/t/DP69bLed

  • Vardoger

    Oct 01 08:30 Personal Income
    Oct 01 08:30 Personal Spending
    Oct 01 08:30 Initial Claims
    Oct 01 08:30 Continuing Claims
    Oct 01 10:00 Construction Spending
    Oct 01 10:00 ISM Index Sep
    Oct 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales
    Oct 01 14:00 Auto Sales
    Oct 01 14:00 Truck Sales

  • isaiah64v4

    I think you posted by mistake a link to the LAX traffic controller's screen. :-)

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    This time last we….there was an expanding triangle on the table……is that now not a possibility ?

  • innatedc

    A good day for a, dare I say it, C-R-A-S-H…..shhhh, you didn't hear it from me.

  • dollar

    Why not P3 continuation tomorrow Anna?

  • gmak

    It was tongue in cheek. If the market is down, it can't be due to natural action. Had to be a mistake by some bull. :-)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    The fund managers need to keep the end of quarter books looking good for their clients. So they are still buying these dips for today. that's my take :) or else we would be much further down. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Fed is just a selling those dollars. hand over fist..

  • AS2009

    Alpha – can you share where you think we are … was this the completion of c or P3 getting confirmed

  • innatedc

    Who was it yesterday that mentioned Wynn as a short? Congrats if you got it…..

  • BaldEagle

    11 o'clock on the nose=ramp job. They don't even attempt to hide it. Burn in hell money changers.

  • dollar

    Agreed but tomorrow is Oct. 1

  • Douala

    Anyone have a good idea where we are on the wave count?

  • x5x5x5x5x5

    Everyone – I want to thank you for all of your hard work – comments, charts, insight. I've been lurking for quite a while and have learned so much here and on SOH. I hope to give back when I feel I have something to contribute . . . other than thanks, for now.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am thinking next week, but hopefully tomorrow :)

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm guessing most people's trend lines or channels for the big picture view of the rally show that we still haven't broken down.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Welcome wagon here! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… working on 3 minuette of 3 minor of 1 intermediate of 3 primary, down…

    Skål!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    abort abort!!!

  • gmak

    On what and for what time frame?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    damn disgus

  • Bart7

    big gap on the S&P 5 min from about 1054 to 1057

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Potentially 3 subminuette… but counting becomes quite difficult at that scale.

    Skål!

  • TonyMontana

    Ana,

    Did you have a chance to check out WYNN yesterday? I'm currently long Oct 60 Puts, and if we do get the start of P3 next week as you anticipate, this one could be a dandy :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Show Mole The Money!

  • innatedc

    <sniffing>….I smell a POMO fire somewhere….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    It COULD be, but there are a lot of indications that would move this puppy well towards the bottom of our probability list. For one, we would need to be looking MUCH higher, immediately.

    Triangles rarely appear in markets as often as we “think” we see them.

    Skål!

  • PeterK80

    Close to my 1053 target adding puts here…plus approaching some resistence.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&st=2

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm imagining a gap fill.

  • Nightwind

    See how the Dow does a backtest of broken trendline….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    woaaaa that one is sweet and was on great volume :) What a keeper. I wish I had gotten it filled, but I missed it and didn't want to chase Plus one for you Tony Excellent job. :)

  • EZEnergySavings

    see you guys at the top EOD…do not be shocked to see 1108 area today or tomorrow…long 490 OEX (es1045 area)

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    I see a bearish rising wedge in the SPX, RUT, and DOW 5 minute chart. IMO more downside is yet to come today.

  • Hanuman

    SPLS a great short candidate. I have opened an initial position today.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we can still have the expanding triangles.

    On one scenario we go to 900's and then climb back to 1100's

    on another the drop is straight to 800's and then rises to 1200's.

    the only problem is the nasdaq, without higher gold I would say it should not go beyond 2150

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I just keep adding on the bounces, the bull tards LOL hi jethro :))))

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “We are lost!” shouted EWavers in the dark theater

  • Douala

    Thanks berk.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    should be… Likely another push lower into the close…

    Skål!

  • BaldEagle

    What are you friggin nuts?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    NP… I do my best…

    Skål!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    sounds good – credible too

  • Anonymous

    scratch the 1053.25 potential cover on longs…waiting now at 1061.5 today to determine whether I scale out of 490 OEX longs from 1045 area….preference is ALL DAY HOLD but may scale out at 1061.5 and renenter long on pullback from there…the tape will tell…potential for massive move today thru Friday to 1108 is my tgt in order to initiate any more puts OEX

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    On bar 9 of TD Sell Set Up on ES 5 min bars.

  • innatedc

    I think its Ned, Bald Eagle….

  • harveydent

    is it me or does WYNN look like a triple top at 72/73 (in sept.) and a for sure sell

  • gmak

    Confirmed on SPX 5 min. plus the 23 MA is just overhead at 1053.55 – should act as a roof. If not, next resistance is 1055.44, then 1057.83 (all SPX)

  • x5x5x5x5x5

    Thanks Anna – You're very gracious!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I second EZ – let him buy

  • raised_by_wolves

    innatedc, would you mind posting a chart?

  • innatedc

    Snort…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Is it Inna, cause that was a ned statement !!!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    absolutely, I may try a vertical put spread on it, tony Montana pointed this out yesterday :)

  • innatedc

    I don't know for sure….you're on the inside, you decide.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'd say H/S top, but HELLS yeah buddy. Thanks for bringing that up!! Love it. Great reversal candle today too if it holds.

    Skål!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Nope, just a delayed brain 😉

  • Bart7

    Interesting thoughts from Mish:
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
    Today a close friend, “HB”, pinged me with this thought: “Today's unexpected negative surprise Chicago PMI which is back in contraction, reminds me of 2002. This is how the 2002 waterfall decline began. The trigger was exactly the same, a disappointing PMI.”
    Fundamentally and technically the market is prime for a huge correction. Sentiment is extreme and the viewpoint expressed by William Dwyer above is consensus. However, it is important to keep in mind that as long as the corporate bond market stays healthy, stocks will likely have a bid. How much longer that remains is anyone's guess.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    My intuition is too squash it, but i will give it a second…. just in case..:)

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    crude en fuego!

  • innatedc

    Yeah wait for another idiot statement…

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Glad to know I'm on your side. 😉 I hate losing!!!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Ah ha! Someone's fat fingers sloppily pressed the wrong button. Gotcha.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    yea that what is causing this bounce/ along with commodities and the $DXY freaking weak ass LOL

  • rhae

    I do not see much problem for bears today, yet… Unless bounce can take out 38% Fib around 105.60 SPY with errational exburance, could happen?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    this year it's bullish

  • innatedc

    I'll update my chart at EOD so then its fresh….remind me then…

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    That is the GS goto trade…. get'em up!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    We really should be seeing the light shortly Jethro..:)
    http://storage.canoe.ca/v1/blogs-prod-static/me

  • AS2009

    Alpha – where do you think we are ?

  • harveydent

    cool!

  • Vardoger

    /qm just filled it's gap from last Wednesday

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    :)

  • Tronacate

    Volume will pick up later in the downturn…….imo……

  • skynard

    GS back in the green.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Trading cavemen was the name of this post, not an invitation for a new TCaveman Club

    Care to explain the inovating TA you're using?

  • Tronacate

    Need to break about 9630 to be sure this is P3….imo

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Mole are you out there, do I need to do a comment cleaner here or are you up and about?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i hate to say and jinx it. but the Dow breaching wave i is very bearish. the SPX still hasn't but the Dow leads. We are about to start wave v down. hoping this long consolidation means it will give a strong to at 1039.47. last day of the month, interesting day for the crater, but no one wants to be the last one left turning out the lights.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    In the spirit of my critters and my return of my Asian Bengal safely Home, I am not Double Naughy's cousin Elle Mae Clampette LOL

  • Tronacate

    Baltic Dry hasn't lied it appears to me…….been tanking for awhile

  • innatedc

    Damn!!! If I had my new futures account set up with my new broker I'd be shorting that MOFO….

  • innatedc

    It is a great leading indicator….

  • harveydent

    added some 65 puts.
    going to be patient.

  • BaldEagle

    I'd short stock to Ned

  • AS2009

    So essentially you are thinking this is P3 now … no doubts on that

  • innatedc

    Snort..

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    nothing is certain yet

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    We would need a low below Friday's to really help but that count on solid footing. Fucking patience.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    on WYNN right?

  • harveydent

    yes mamn
    still holding my spy 104 puts as well.
    sound ok to you….?

  • Bart7

    I like the new avatar…

  • innatedc

    i don't. We need more Anna pics…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    That Miss Ellie Mae, the princess of the critter creatures :)

  • isaiah64v4

    AH
    There are a lot of wave counts being tossed out today. Where are we exactly? Have we started P3 or are we in xxx of P2 still? Thanks.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Oh come on, it's in the spirit of my critters yeeeh haah and to bring some positive negative engery to the tape. LOL

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Sounds great to me, i am trying to add WYNN Nov. 65/60 for 1.65

  • raised_by_wolves

    Let's drive up the comments to 1060!

  • Vardoger

    38.2% holding, on RUT as well

  • innatedc

    Betcha Mole puts up new post when we hit 666…

  • harveydent

    i like being on the same page as you.
    quite beneficial :)

  • skynard

    Always thought we needed some major event to initiate P3. Maybe this time they do not want you to catch on.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    :))))

  • EZEnergySavings

    under 1045 goes to 1036.5 so I have my OEX stop under the 1045 es area and only look to enter longs…but holding 490 OEX (1045 es area entry) for ALL DAY HOLD

  • Tronacate

    Watching LQD like a hawk now…….

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hehe, he better get here soon. If he takes the day off, we're pumping this to 1121!

  • mattco

    Be careful. WYNN just raised $1.63 billion for Macao Unit. I don't know what that does to the stock price. Just a heads up. Good luck.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I know the signals from the SPX are more reliable but the odd thing is that the Dow did actually fall below Friday's low………now retraced back up above the low…..

  • TheCrowe

    I put my money on this earlier this week. Do you have a timeframe in mind? (i.e. that green arrow seems awfully vertical to me (10/1)) Best, Richard

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thanks Mattco :)

  • EZEnergySavings

    Bal Eagle: NO I AM NOT NUTS…under 1045 goes to 1036.5 so I have my OEX stop under the 1045 es area and only look to enter longs…but holding 490 OEX (1045 es area entry) for ALL DAY HOLD

    Leib Schaeffer
    EZ Energy Savings
    US Finance Group LLC
    274 Hudson Road
    Stow, MA 01775
    978-568-8810
    866-467-0009 fax
    508-332-2702 cell
    UL/CUL Certified: e332834
    http://www.twitter.com/EZEnergy
    http://www.EZEnergySavings.com
    info@EZEnergySavings.com

  • Anonymous

    when I have to take one of those, I feel like Death warmed-over the entire next day

  • Osso

    good point..!! alpha. Specially on Dow leadership. Its Dow thats telling the story. Transports STILL havent confirmed the higher close od DJI.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I really hope we don't gap fill !!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Bart7

    which gap, the S&P 5?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Trading on hope gets expensive.

  • EZEnergySavings

    I apologize b/c I am new to the forum and am replying to emails I get so hopefully these are not double entering…I use a fabulous floor trader numbers http://www.jsservices.com

    under 1045 goes to 1036.5 so I have my OEX stop under the 1045 es area and only look to enter longs…but holding 490 OEX (1045 es area entry) for ALL DAY HOLD

    Leib Schaeffer
    EZ Energy Savings
    US Finance Group LLC
    274 Hudson Road
    Stow, MA 01775
    978-568-8810
    866-467-0009 fax
    508-332-2702 cell
    UL/CUL Certified: e332834
    http://www.twitter.com/EZEnergy
    http://www.EZEnergySavings.com
    info@EZEnergySavings.com

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    you can make a strong case that the DOW is, and the odds went up for all the indices, but until 1039.47 is taken out for the SPX, at least 3 valid counts exist. if this is wave [iv] of iii of (i), then we should get a final move down, it could be coiling building strength for the next attempt at 1039. we'll have to wait and see. I expect this move to reach 1053.50

  • Tronacate

    1039.47……exactly right…..

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Which says… Fractured market.. Which says topping certainly underway. Well see from here.

    Skål!

  • EZEnergySavings

    oops…I see these are also posted on the forum…will square this away from here on out

  • http://partiallystapled.com/ gxti

    I hope we do… I sold half my QQQQ puts midway through the grind up and I'd looooove to get back in at the top.

  • down_town

    Gold up (trying to be held down) dollar down, market down…… Inflection point?

    Come on PPT where are you?

  • Osso

    SPX 1058…yesterdays low should be resistance…..

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Amazing that Modest Mouse could accurately describe TARP before it happened…

    “so all of the businessers in their unlimited
    hell where they buy and they sell and they sell all their
    trash to each other but they're sick of it all
    and they're bankrupt on selling”

    ROFL.

    Skål!

  • Vardoger

    ….trying to sell bonds….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Anyone got a spare foot to shove up ICE's ass?

    Skål!

  • EZEnergySavings

    next resistance for longs: 1053.25, then 1061.5 then 1069.5 then 1078 then 1090 then 1108 exhaustion (ONLY VALID SELL AREA FOR ME)…I may cover my 490 OEX calls if we meet significant resiatnce but will only re-enter longs for today (actuallu bought OEX puts at the open at 1049 area and covered at 1045 for 10% profits…1 OEX pt)….ALL DAY HOLD VALID UNTIL WE SEE THE 1053.25 show as a steel wall for now)

  • skynard

    With crude up over 3.5% and gold over 1K again speculation may drive this tape to 1100 on the S&P before we drop IMO.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Hey cuz! I L-O-V-E having your pet bear in the house. Come on in and have some steak!

  • Tronacate

    What size would you like?…..I wear a 12

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Be right over 😉

  • ultrabear

    Incidentally, if that was just a C wave at the open this morning (and we're going up), then it's a nice foretaste of what you can expect on a grand scale in P3… of C.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I think that should do the trick. Steel-toed boots perhaps?

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    With Gore-tex so I don't get all shit stained

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    LOL… Nice… I appreciate it… By feet are already wedged in FSLR and BIDU right now. I appreciate the hand, er… foot.

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    Patience right here…….rolling over today imo…..

  • harveydent

    1053 holding for now as the wall.
    pla pla plea please hold!

  • molecool

    When and where was that?

  • Tronacate

    Two fister

  • Anonymous

    The top is already set.

  • molecool

    Just woke up – had to pop a sleeping pill last night.

  • Tronacate

    Was it shaped like a joint?

  • Tronacate

    I think 1053 is gonna be toast

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    “Bankrupt on Selling” off of “The Lonesome Crowded West” 1997 Modest Mouse release. They have a habit of guiding my life.. and apparently telling the future.

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    Just kidding……

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    That's the way the Berkster rolls…

    Skål!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I have a channel on LQD. We're between the 50% and 25% medians. The last time we touched the 25%, we shot way the hell back up to the 50% that same day, Sept. 10th.

    http://screencast.com/t/BMHarVg3RYg

  • Bart7

    UUP just took a dive

  • Tronacate

    With employment bad……another stimulus I bet…..and dollar gets hammered some more….

  • Bart7

    everybody else is stimulating, trying to keep their currencies down too though… not sure why the dollar will do worse than the rest of the pack from here…. longer term…

  • thelefteyeguy

    well this is disappointing…

  • Tronacate

    True……experiment that never has happened before…….”jobless” recovery for a 70% consumer driven economy is a pure pipe dream

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good morning Mr. Evil! (I still get to say good morning to you since we're both on the best coast).

  • gsavli

    Ekhmm, there are 600 comments in this thread. Maybe a new one, just to clean things up, would be in order.

  • BaldEagle

    We have somewhat of a rising wedge on the 1 min SPY chart

  • Cerebro82

    until this channel breaks on the /NQ, we will continue to slowly build higher. Right at the 61.8% retracement of entire move down. 2 of (iii)?
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

  • Me_XMan

    Dipsters buying up again.

  • Tronacate

    Let's see…… dollar rises and equities tank….government “investment” loses……dollar tanks……..equities go up but still worth less because dollar lower……..either way we're screwed

  • Trader_Steve

    Error message at link.

    Steve

  • Cerebro82
  • raised_by_wolves

    Did you hear about how I was bullish last night and this morning until yesterday's low was taken out? I was wrong, but at least I minimized my loss thanks to my well defined trading plan.

  • Me_XMan

    Is Benny shorting the Dollar?

  • Cerebro82
  • CorporalCarrot

    holy crap, I suspect for a lot of people (and I include myself in this), today is a good lesson in taking profits when you have them.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    link not working Cerebro…..

  • Cerebro82
  • dollar

    12:21 PM August Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (.pdf): -0.3% to 80.1. July revised to +3.1%. Regional output declined 20.8% from a year earlier, vs. -12% nationally.

  • Cerebro82

    yeah i saw that… I don't get why not

  • raised_by_wolves

    Now that you're up, I'm going back to bed, and I'm sure I will sleep well since I feel safe and secure having loaded up on March puts (I don't care in the least if there's a short term paper loss).

  • insite

    cerebro – delete the filename from the end of the link. here is one of yours:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/folde

  • Carl V

    At least the up reaction of the indexes is not very convincing and volumes are tight.
    SPX: 1056-1057 is a resistance on the last midas lines drawn from the 2 last tops and the intermediate bottom
    http://screencast.com/t/tuIpHenM

  • insite

    cerebro –
    delete the file name from the end of your link like this:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/folde

  • Cerebro82

    Thanks insite

  • Joe8888

    50% retrace here ,,intraday….. i bought some back here..

  • Trader_Steve

    >>nothing is certain yet<<

    You forgot death and taaxes….and this SLOW DEATH if TAXING the F**K out of me! (g)

    Steve

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Lack of volume has never stopped it going up in the past !!

  • shortcover

    stopped out…oh well.

  • ultrabear

    Sold Oct 106s on the 50% mark.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    This one worth reading – if I do say so myself 😉
    New Post: http://tinyurl.com/2yhvfb

  • Vardoger

    Bonds lagging or equities wrong?

  • Cerebro82

    LMAO EVERYDAY SOMETHING NEW WITH THESE MARKETS… THIS is funny shit

  • Bart7

    S&P 5 minute gap mentioned earlier about filled….

  • Osso

    Positive Inter Index divergence at todays lows….playing……until they hit posted resistance levels.

  • ultrabear

    You been writing at a time like THIS?? 😉

  • Scrillhog

    Whoo hooo another nice signal on TICK… Missed that whole waterfall but riding the retracement!

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/f

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Ascending wedge ?

  • Nexus_7

    love oil
    :-*

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Do you mean the gap at 1058 ?

  • EZEnergySavings

    scratch the 1053.25 potential cover on longs…waiting now at 1061.5 today to determine whether I scale out of 490 OEX longs from 1045 area….preference is ALL DAY HOLD but may scale out at 1061.5 and renenter long on pullback from there…the tape will tell…potential for massive move today thru Friday to 1108 is my tgt in order to initiate any more puts OEX

  • onorio

    Yesterday DAX and FTSE almost made new highs, IMO we should have new highs this week.

    Today down move looks like a (ii) of v, so if im correct we should rally from here.

    Im long in silver @ 16.05, IMO we should see 18 before the market tops.

  • thelefteyeguy

    what goes up…must go up

  • Bart7

    from around 1054 to 1057

  • malusDiaz

    Isn't this almost a text book Bearish- Rising Wedge?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Gap filled, eh?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    wow I really really really forgot about natural gas…. then I look on the daily chart and /NG gapped up like an entire dollar. I bet some traders who were short got some serious margin calls…..

    possibly a good short now though

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Thanks…

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    That's what I'm hoping…..

  • ultrabear

    In $INDU, I'd be inclined to agree with you – looks a LOT cleaner for the bearish case over there.

  • Vardoger

    gap when contract rolled

  • Vardoger

    Money starting to flow out of bonds

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    could we please colapse at nasdaq 2130?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    ohhh right on.. thats a hell of a gap for a rollover though damn

  • CorporalCarrot

    holy crap this is incredible.

  • Carl V

    One thing is annoying: we now have a triangle between the 2 most recent tops and bottoms. Coming at the end of an up trend I'd say triangle here is a continuation pattern. What do you think?
    Not that I like the idea…
    http://screencast.com/t/xy4FE5emo

  • insite

    i know; at this rate we'll be S&P positive by 1:30…..

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    This is a bearish wedge. It is also unknowing bulls buying the dip, and MMs pushing the tape higher to get out of their positions. I remain fully short.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Okay fellow rats, I'll be hitting the sell button right about here on USO if a get a good bid and DXY bounces up. For the moment looks like the low to mid 76.60s are providing a floor on DXY.

    Oil saves TME's butt yet again! :)

  • byhiselo

    i see it but don't believe it, bears are such bloody wimps…grin

    i'm holding my shorts for lower, much lower prices…any upside from here is dessert in the flambe' style imo

  • itsgold

    Just popped in to check the market and noticed people are still buying the gaps. I guess the trend is still up?

    Anyone see any significant events happening between October 7-11?

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    Here is some investment advice from someone I refuse to listen to (to my detriment) – “There is absolutely no way to be anything but bullish on stocks, no matter what you think the state of the economy may be.”

  • jaxon

    LOL, sort of. not sure that anyone should be surprised at this?

  • Carl V

    Just in case SPX breaks above this triangle, or wedge or whatever…
    http://screencast.com/t/VwT2uIUdsX

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol we should be back to green in a minute or two at this rate.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    weird i know – helps me define my thinking though

  • Me_XMan

    Market has recovered. You've got to be shitting me.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    this is unbelievable….. kind of like this entire rally for the past 6 months

  • shortcover

    back in qid, sds…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just reloaded short positions

  • Styrfart

    yes it will! It’s save Styris and Lester day today! WD day

  • ACJ

    was a bear trap, rinse repeat

  • Nexus_7

    until i see a sign of a possible reversal i would hold onto USO. oil kept its ground well last two days and i dont see anything that could shake it up today.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Well, atleast the market's not oversold !!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    But /NG is still a much better way of trading nat gas than the UNG ETF. (Right now anyway.)

  • byhiselo

    speaking of flambe style, smoke 'em if you got em…out for some bc bud and will watch the colors into the close

  • AudioTactics

    Ok, I'm trading about as well as neanderthal today!

    Maybe I should not have left my cave today… lol

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yeps, should resolve to the missing wave 5 upward

    NEVERTHELESS a wave 4 being the beggining og the drop is not unheard of.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the best count right now i believe is this is c of (ii) of 1 of 5 of C. in other words, 1080.15 was the top and 1041.17 marked wave (i) down. since then we be in a large abc wave ii. so wave iii has not started yet. this is the count daneric put up last night.

  • colonel_bleep

    Erase the early selloff and it's an exact repeat of Monday.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Me too lol. I've been sitting here for the last three hours, wanting to lock in profits, but I can't quite bring myself to hit the buy button :)

  • EZEnergySavings

    just took half off from 1045 area…will reenter that 1/2 back in after we retest 1053.25 area…tgt is 1108 but next signif res is 1069.5

  • byhiselo

    oh, i get it…forgot this was a bear extinction campaign…bears will have to breed with cockroaches to survive this

    watch the emotions all while i pull bull horns out my arse

  • Bart7

    ok, so what's the freakin wave count look like now?

  • Trader_Steve

    I feel like I'm trading against the Stasi !!!!!!

    Steve

  • Araex

    Draw the trends in the same timeframe on DOW, and the pattern comes much more clearer.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/IJY6dlzhsl

  • CorporalCarrot

    oh my god

  • Tronacate

    PPT must be very active today….

  • insite

    no joke. this is completely parabolic now….

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    by that virtue it should reverse from here then…

  • ultrabear

    Added SPY Oct 106 puts here

  • ACJ

    sick fakeout huh. They didn't want any bulls on the bus to 1100

  • Tronacate

    Very much so……..should end poorly(goodly)

  • Me_XMan

    1-2 step back 3-4 steps…repeat again.

  • gmak

    The magic TA 8-ball says: All signs point to time for a sell off. w/i 3 – 5 minutes.

  • bananaben

    Ha Ha Ha! I told you bears to go home. Are you going to respect the power of my printing press now? I am the residential mortage market, the commercial mortage market, and the stock market. Wait till you see what I have in store for you next month.

  • Osso

    Qs weaker….resistance 42.62…??

  • Me_XMan

    Bulls seeing Dow 10K next month IMO.

  • Trader_Steve

    They are no better than the Chekka….we have a governmemt that widely sucks and the end result is debt that will bury us like Rome ended.

    Anyone who has a modicum of knowledge of history knows I am right and our children will live in servitude and oppression.

    Steve

  • onorio

    we`re in (iii) of v up, target 1093

  • centerline

    Wow. Just got to my computer. Was at a seminar this morning. WTF? Nice boner pattern forming on the daily chart. Watching in horror.

  • PeterK80

    I took out some lines and this is what I was looking at as a possibility:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&st=2

  • Tronacate

    Bring back slick Willie……he had the budget under control……who cares if he was getting head in the oral office

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Oh I think I'll have it again this week even if I do sell it this afternoon. I'd guess it would be on the long side too. (But oil is such a complex instrument, you never know!)

    Meanwhile the so-called floor at 76.64 on DXY turned out to be thin ice. So still holding USO. But based on the DXY chart I'm guessing my USO exit will be at $35.79.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    for a=c……the top of ii would be close to 100% retracement….

  • Anonymous

    LONG for rest of day full position…set it and forget it

  • Me_XMan

    Oral Office…HAHAHAHAHHAA!

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i'm afraid we're dead bear meat… look at the nasdaq

  • Trader_Steve

    Where were you when the Dow was down over 100?

    Steve

  • thelefteyeguy

    i think you mean mortgage…:)

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    SNB bid up the dollar this morning. Donald Kohn from the Fed destroyed it. This is all masterminded by Ben the destroyer.

  • onorio

    at the mall :)

  • Osso

    bot TYP and QID.

  • rhae

    SPY to the sky? I dunno, looks fishy to me, … my indicators never popped or very little ( divergence)

  • dollar

    Bght SDS and QID

  • byhiselo

    i am that i am?

  • MrBF

    sold my calls that i bought when spx crossed 1050. buying puts now.

  • BaldEagle

    What a fucking joke this is

  • shortcover

    still think we close red if not at lows of day…

  • EZEnergySavings

    who's nuts now? reenter longs 1053.5 area

  • TheMacroEconomist

    See, it's a V-shaped recorvery. 😀

    Horror if you traded the wrong side of either leg without a tight stop. (I was wrong half way and right half way for the down leg.)

  • bshah

    seriously ? i am waiting for GOOG to hit 500 to short

  • BaldEagle

    You called for 1100 today you wingnut

  • Me_XMan

    If bulls can close SPX over 1064, bears better bail.

  • dollar

    power up did not equal power down

  • Joe8888

    Gotta see this…Update of that 10 min SPY Chart….

    we backtested the channel break,,,,do we selloff now…?

  • losershot

    I come back from lunch to see a parabolic chart on the S&P500 from today's lows.

  • EZEnergySavings

    joe: don't fight the tape…buy pullbacks next few days

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Damn right on that. IWM went down as fast as 2x UltraShort SDS was going up, percentage wise. Anything that hinted of risk was thrown to the dogs.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    everyone short?

  • gmak

    My TA says Yes to the sell off here. Don't know how far down, but there it is. I see support at SPX = 1057.83 initially.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    all wav ecounts atnd

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Crude? getting close for a short?
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_9titM9yn4xw/SsOQx7nD1

  • fusiyichipegasus

    I think we will end up super green on the day.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yes Master

  • Anonymous

    the “rub” is if 1061.5 stops the run or we get to 1069.5…time will tell

  • ultrabear

    oh yes.

  • Osso

    under 1061….my bet.

  • TheCrowe

    I was a little early (as usual) with my put spread. I didn't anticipate the .40c ramp up to 42.6 :) :)

  • ACJ

    Sure the #s were bad, but look at all the room for improvement!

  • EZEnergySavings

    Mr. Bald Eagle: yes I called the 1108 area when we were at 1045…you will see this area much faster than you can imagine…this is why I buy OEX so I can hold for the target…will get there this week

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I loaded up @ 1063.20 spy oct 105's retest of highs

  • Osso

    english pliz…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    today is an amazing trading day – short in the morning (gutsy one), no brainer long on low – tou I have to admit I did not expect THAT, short now – what a rush

  • Vardoger

    I like the chart but not sure what the 200 MA is? I have the 200 sma and ema much lower?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    may you keep riding the waves well!

  • MrBF

    yep, sold my calls (posted below) that i purchased at the cross of spx 1050 earlier today. Bought IWM puts.

  • ckeltner

    ok, now that was funny 😉

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    good deal..BF looks good so far. :)

  • Anonymous

    I’ll close longs at EOD or at 1108 :-)

  • rhae

    SPY 60m… wasn't that bouncy sucky… I suppose if one just follows the rules it was not unexpected, Gunslingers never do that……. There has not been a confirmed swing high, yet… so unless the established yellow trendline is violated… it might go back down?

    I really, really want a new lower high anchor…. http://screencast.com/t/WIyxecfw

  • Trader_Steve

    Do you take all losses?

    I just love guys who TELL people what to do as if they are omniscient.

    Steve

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Mole, I forgot my log in info, and my cookies got cleared, Or I would do a new post. sorry :(

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    takes time to get use to volatility again – feels like winter

  • TheCrowe

    For what it's worth, Doug Kass' headline in RealMoney reads “Mission Accomplished” with respect to his generational bottom call of March and now his market top call.

    quotes include:
    “…my market top call has been met with the same sort of cynicism that my generational bottom call was greeted with in early March 2009. “

    “As such, I feel at home with my top call now… … a wide range of outcomes must now be considered against a consensus that looks for the certainty and smoothness of rapid 20%-plus year-over-year S&P growth.

    Mission accomplished. “

  • Vardoger

    A trader made the point earlier that PM's have extra motivation today because they get paid in advance on quarter end balances so today is big impact on Q4 earnings

  • shortcover

    nice 2 dollar air pocket out of SCO. i like that one around 16.5…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Good for Dougie !

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    tried to trade at the same time :) “all waves counts stand”

  • EZEnergySavings

    David: you are the sharpest guy on the board. I am a perma bear BUT you have to know how to read the tape and not get caught up in every dang EW or fib BS. We should find support on this small pullback to 1054 area and then I reload for longer hold to 1108…I will continue to scaleout and reenter long but do not get in front of this train for the next several days at least

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    You mean after the move is over :)

  • Trader_Steve

    Thanks to The Contract with America, Clinton wwas the best conservative in the WH since Reagan. A true slime-bucket, but still, the most conservative President we have seen.

    Steve

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    EZ – if u read my posts – I was short in the morning, long from 1700 NQ and short again now avg 1725
    just trading here, don't really care for bears' cause or bulls' cause.
    Run up was spectacular thou…so was down as well – crazy market

  • ultrabear

    Mmmm I think you may be on the money with that one… as per lol

  • Trader_Steve

    Obama's representative did say they wanted investors and not day traders!

    Steve

  • Joe8888

    i use the 200 simple…..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    u need to promise moooore

  • shortcover

    i dont see the connection on it impacting earnings. used to be an analyst at a private equity shop and have some prop-trading experience…that's not how these guys get paid. mostly the hedge funds it's the 20% performance allocation which could be annual or based on each limited partner's anniversary date. as far as managers for mutual funds go – they are salaried with some year end comp bonus based on how active a strategy they have.

  • rhae

    I am not trading this crap, I have more fun tracking the chart… I just try and point out important places on the charts… which are high potential points… and with good risk management you will always be a winner… ( over time)… imo

  • insite

    LQD is starting to drop below that trendline…..

  • ultrabear

    You mean suckers morelike…

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    this 5 wave up… could it be C of B of 2 down?

    a flat would mean we go slightly higher, a running flat means the next drop will be murder

  • Vardoger

    I think this sums up the action well- from Swinger:

    –end of quarter in a bullish market probably means plenty of pros are looking to protect a big payday.

    It can be dangerous trying to get between a pro and his bonus check.

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    I do credit Reagan for giving us Greenspan (and getting rid of Volcker).

    we got Obama to rescue us from the shit Bush put us in. and we got Bernanke to get us out the hole Greenspan put us in. Guess WE ARE TWO FOR TWO.
    Dont you love it?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    No it's not… Check your lines.

    Skål!

  • Nexus_7

    like stepping in front of a bull 😉

  • Douala
  • down_town

    Thats what you get for taking your computer down to the beach!

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    A slime-bucket? it was just a tiny stain on the dress…

    Seriously, I thought the slime-bucket was the first lady…

    And don't praise old bill too much, he got his budget as it should (balanced) by taxing a bubble he helped create

  • Scrillhog

    What is the symbol for Gold in prophet?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Agreed with that. How often do I find myself on the wrong side of the market on a breakdown, be able to reverse the position during the breakdown to erase the loss…

    …and then get another spectacular setup on a breakout to make the money I should have made on the breakdown in the morning?

  • EZEnergySavings

    david:where do you post other than here to follow more closely

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    daily (few times a week) on my site, you can just follow on disqus – I am here nad Moo's site

  • ultrabear

    Hmm… it's a tough one.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    check out his blog, trading to win

  • shortcover

    not sure who/what swinger is…but bonuses are at year end. if there are additional quarterly perf bonuses, maybe they are paid to traders on a trading desk in-house…but I don't know if they have enough capital in aggregate to keep a market up – maybe in the futures pits? but in that case they're not really managers at all…

    i will agree that end of quarter window dressing is something to note, but from what i understand on a correlation basis it is not statically significant or tradable.

  • gannsecret

    EZ,
    your wasting your time trying to convince “most”
    of the people here of anything. There almost all experts.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    They need to have a good number in their EOQ book, so they are not going to let that 130 hurt their clients eyes. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Hardly, but we are all fairly set in our ways…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Touche :)

  • Vardoger

    The one that is at 899 spx, right?

  • ultrabear

    And dumping them again

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Professionals get paid by an external source for their trading. We all pay ourselves (with perhaps a few exceptions). Not saying that a lot of us are not stellar traders, just not professionals…

    Skål!

  • gmak

    I would suggest that a professional trader is anyone who DEPENDS on the money they make from trading, with their own capital at risk, for their livelihood.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    GLD is the ETF…

    Skål!

  • http://twitter.com/NorbertTO Norbertt

    Hiya to all (Virgin post).
    Don't forget that is it Quarter end today and all the greedy institutional bulltards will try to mark up the tape or not sell their longs. I'm looking to rehook puts and FAZ going into the close.

    Norb

  • Nexus_7

    nice triangle on SPY 60min

  • ultrabear

    Hey GS – I expect you are expecting to be vindicated sometime soon… Re. the chart you posted earlier – do we hit the apex, or just approach it?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I would call that a “full-time trader that needs to win.” As I said, a professional would be getting paid from an external source…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Mole loves Virgins hahahah welcome :)

  • Osso

    All BS….ends bad……even for the MMs, the GS…..and stocks tape “hollywood producers”

  • http://twitter.com/NorbertTO Norbertt

    Thank you, love the comentary here.

  • gmak

    So anyone who is self-employed cannot be deemed to be a professional?

  • BaldEagle

    Come on now, this is an Oscar-worthy performance! Bravo

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Not true, if he comes up with something interesting I would say most of the people here will LOOK seriously.

    If he says beyond 1100 today or tomorow at most… most will disbelieve without serious evidence

    On the other hand we all know that 1150 is a serious scenario (on another timeframe) and 1200 might show it's ugly head

  • Vardoger

    I wouldn't disagree with that. The MAJOR difference is the amount of money managed and how that affects the market. Interested reminded me this morning that, “PM's get paid in advance on quarter end balances so today has a large impact on their Q4 earnings… they definitely have the motivation today.”

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am the welcome wagon 😉

  • fusiyichipegasus

    picking up some spy calls here at 1058-1059

  • hank30

    I expect harsh reality of economy wil start setting in really soooon……

  • AudioTactics

    Hey Annna

    are those calls that you bought?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    might not quite be over yet – stay alert
    http://screencast.com/t/dOdIVUuSi

  • Vardoger

    Anyone with a bloomie terminal is definitely a pro, so you qualify on that alone Gmak :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    No I loaded up on SPY 105 puts (oct) @ 1063.20

  • TheCrowe

    I know Doula digs the kass reading, as a few other might too. Since I subscribe, I thought I'd put it out there. Hope it's cool. Just sharing the 411… :)

  • ultrabear

    Added SPY Oct 106 calls here – we have hit the bottom of the channel

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    although i have it labeled c and ii, it wouldn't surprise me to see it extend to 1070, but the trendline off the low repelled the move so far

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I wouldn't go that far. As I am self-employed and trade full time. Though I have no formal education in trading and have never worked for any trading company. Perhaps the line is a little more fine than I imagined…

    Skål!

  • EZEnergySavings

    waiting to re-enetr other 1/2 long at retest of 1053.25 area of a bit higher if the retest fails to touch

    Leib Schaeffer
    EZ Energy Savings
    US Finance Group LLC
    274 Hudson Road
    Stow, MA 01775
    978-568-8810
    866-467-0009 fax
    508-332-2702 cell
    UL/CUL Certified: e332834
    http://www.twitter.com/EZEnergy
    http://www.EZEnergySavings.com
    info@EZEnergySavings.com

  • ichabod007

    Another great post…..love you style……your not just here to entertain…..your here to educate as well

    (hey wait…I think that one has already been taken)

  • gmak

    I don't depend on my trading to live. I stay in the game for interest and mental stimulation with a small amount of risk money. I don't consider myself to be a professional trader.

    I used to be a professional money manager – but that is another story entirely.

    ________________________________

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    As long as we are arguing for the sake of argument that's cool…

    Skål!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “paid from an external source…”

    Is Other People Money can be qualified as EXTERNAL source?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    crap… I just got new book of charts from charting service :(

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    No, those are your winnings/gains. If your wife pays you when you make money, I suppose you could count that….

    Skål!

  • centerline

    Actually glad I am on the sidelines re: short term positions right now… well sort of. It would have been an exciting morning. Of course, I get here just in time for zzzzz. chop, chop and chop.

  • centerline

    Actually glad I am on the sidelines re: short term positions right now… well sort of. It would have been an exciting morning. Of course, I get here just in time for zzzzz. chop, chop and chop.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Perhaps it would be better if I said people that receive a paycheck (not withdrawn from their own account)…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    looking to take off my puts 1/2 for 30% gain

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Not window dressing, imo
    …tomorrow will tell

  • AudioTactics

    I see…

    I'm stumped here – I came into to the day with a short bias but no position, watched the market tank and then was looking for a significant bounce given that we based solidly down at the 1047 area and oil and gold were going nuts but never got filled on my bid and then did not want to chase the market up.

    I still think the market is vulnerable but given today's action, I think it's reasonable to think that equities may try to re-test the recent highs as we rejected the lows. “Try” being the key word though… but its a tough call right now.

  • gmak

    Berks: That's all it is. logical discussion.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah, no doubt… But the “I was a money manager” sealed the deal for me…

    Skål!

  • gmak

    Note that I didn't say professional. lol.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    😛

    Skål!

  • EZEnergySavings

    long other 1/2 490 oex at 1056 es area for now EOD full position hold long

    Leib Schaeffer
    EZ Energy Savings
    US Finance Group LLC
    274 Hudson Road
    Stow, MA 01775
    978-568-8810
    866-467-0009 fax
    508-332-2702 cell
    UL/CUL Certified: e332834
    http://www.twitter.com/EZEnergy
    http://www.EZEnergySavings.com
    info@EZEnergySavings.com

  • gmak

    Have you tried “GOLDS”?

  • ckeltner

    Since mole isn't around, can we please get a comment cleaner Anna or K, assuming mole didn't go post power stripping on his return :)

  • Carl V

    I found something interesting: the EUR battle. Currently stuck in a diamond pattern, which has a bearish probability, then stuck in a 3rd or 4th fan line which are appealing to go downside because prices stayed in this zone for dozens of bars now, and finally hanging around the neckline (orange line) of a major H&S on a higher time frame, which H&S has been confirmed already by a break and close below the neckline.
    Bottom line: I see more odds to a downside break than an upside break.
    http://screencast.com/t/JdADNG2o

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    tuts sold their holding, tuts bought with 401Ks money, can they please sell more of THEIR holdings now?A

  • PeterK80

    Interesting look at USO. Its backtesting a 3 month broken lower trendline… probably a good short here.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&st=200

  • harveydent

    im gonna close my puts.
    getting some calls spy

  • Offtimer

    Yes

  • dollar

    Wow: Jim Cramer's Recommendation On CIT From Yesterday: “Primed For Upside. I Would Buy”

  • gmak

    Investing was very very easy compared to trading. I'm still learning and paying in the transition.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Would have been a sweet little trade if you had an hourly timeframe (as I am sure Cramer does) 😛

    Dumbass. (Cramer not you)

    Skål!

  • gmak

    Incredible analysis. Does it provide a timeframe for the “abort” decision?

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    /ES currently trapped between retesting the regression channel from the rise, and breaking out of the regression channel of the flagish fall from mid-day highs.

    Skål!

  • gmak

    I'm not entirely sure, but it almost looks like the EUR is leading SPX by a minute or two. Anyone else see this or am I just going blind.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Just typing Mole ???

  • Tronacate

    LQD looks like on looooong wedge not counting the two outliers……

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • TheCrowe

    His closing line re C/CIT was “I would buy them both. ” ugh…why do I subscribe?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    r u serious? Bravo JimboHolders!

  • molecool

    Exactly – someone's paying attention – check out update in new thread.

  • Carl V

    Tomorrow I think – as this holds within a 5' time frame it can't extent longer within all those lines !

  • Scrillhog

    Thanks. I'm familiar w/ GLD but looking for data that goes further back. I think GLD only goes back to about 2004. I could use /YG on the regular charts but the data doesn't go very far back on that either. Can't seem to find it on the Prophet site.

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    I copied that picture to my hard drive… now what do you what me to do with it? I can reduce it in size or put a name on it, or whatever? Send me an email and tell me what you want done to the picture. Red (at) Red Dragon Leo (dot) com

  • godfather28

    just curious if you still feel so strongly about your call for 1120 SPX by 7th or 8th of August??

  • godfather28

    apologies…7th or 8th of October

  • gannsecret

    based on current market action I think a lower top is now more likely
    targets  1083  1108 maybe 1122

  • T_dub

    Good call, GS. I do think we are yet to see the final top.. and 1108 by 22-23 October hits right at my 1×1 Gann fan line… must admit I've never seen anyone else draw that line that way ;-)… so take it for what its worth. So far, those fan lines have been shockingly accurate.

  • gannsecret

    TDub'
    Think the top will be on the 8th
    Maybe 1083-84.  1108 is a 25% possibility

  • gannsecret

    TDub'
    Think the top will be on the 8th
    Maybe 1083-84.  1108 is a 25% possibility