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Trading Unobtainium
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Trading Unobtainium

by The MoleNovember 3, 2017

I think it’s fair to say at this point that Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto currencies in general are here to stay. Although BTC continues to be volatile as hell its blockchain now holds over two million BTC wallets, a steadily growing trend I expect to continue in the future. The current hype surrounding BTC actually reminds me of the mid to late 1990s when the Internet started to slowly evolve from a novelty reserved to the domain of intellectuals and geeks to something you needed to be part of if you wanted to be hip.

To this day I remember pitching an Internet based trading exchange project in 1997 (wow – 20 years ago!) to a room full of brokers and a few their attorneys at some trading firm located on the Avenue Of The Stars in Los Angeles. We were young and naive back then but to me it was obvious that calling your broker on the phone to place a trade was a thing of the past and that the future of trading was on the Internet. Suffice to say that we pretty much got laughed out of the room that day and we wound up giving up and going back to work for ‘the man’. Only two years later I wound up contracting at Charles Schwab on a development project dedicated to, you guessed it, an Internet based trading application.

A few weeks later CS celebrated their first Billion Dollars traded via their new trading platform. We all got a towel which I wound up burning on a bonfire. You can imagine how I felt but what I then learned was that being first to market isn’t necessary key unless you are in control of revolutionary technology. What matters the most is execution and being able to offer a product or service that either inspires people or changes the way they work and live. I think Bitcoin delivers on both counts, notwithstanding all security related and volatility based concerns.

BTC Dev Project

Here at the evil lair I have been working on a quant related project since about early this year when I started to get more seriously into python. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to share much on that end but what I can disclose is that it is related to exploiting clear and present trading opportunities related to implied volatility. Further down the line I may make some of the resulting systems available to a few select members here, but the long term goal is to expand my current system related services into a more diversified offering.

Which also will include the trading of unobtainium, or crypto currencies if you will. A side benefit from that particular effort will be an opportunity to feature crypto related charts and analysis right here on Evil Speculator and perhaps even post the occasional setup here and there. So if you’re interested in crypto currencies then make yourself heard in the comment section.

2017-11-03_copper_entry

Now speaking of exotic metals I’m seeing some very exciting formations on both platinum and copper (okay that one is a bit common) today. The latter has now produced a juicy rising diagonal I won’t be able to pass up, especially as it seems to be bouncing off the 25-day SMA. Long here with a stop below 3.09.

2017-11-03_platinum_entry

And the former is doing the same, although I have to concede that three touch points aren’t super convincing, so only 0.25% here. Could still pay off though if it manages to hold that floor formation it seems to be have been busy building over the past few weeks.

One more goodie for my intrepid subs before I’ll call it a weekend:

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It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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too_much_beer

Alright, you know where to find me. Here’s to another profitable week, let there be many more!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Yoda

    NFP miss is not fitting the script, so it’s gonna be ignored

  • ridingwaves

    Nickel is acting weird also….like it wants to break out…and try to get to 6….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    [DUST]
    catching a ride to the next rung. (at least that’s the plan)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/93a6164a646f5cae0182f1f481c8b9908f4cb6042ff5255d0038ece014519e4d.png
    Tally-ho
    -GG

  • ridingwaves

    NFP beat down, look it up, its tradeable….I wouldn’t dump to much into it…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    an IPO?, stockcharts isn’t even listing it.

  • BobbyLow

    Havent been following (any) news but I’m curious as to what happened around 10:30 AM besides more sellers than buyers? I’m short Gold and it took a big dump at about that time. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    non farms payroll metals smack down….very consistent….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    OooooohhhHH.
    (sorry)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    fraudulent numbers historically.
    http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/non-farm-payroll-something-must-be-horribly-wrong-for-them-to-be-this-blatant/

    I won’t oppose that it causes volatility!

  • BobbyLow

    Wow it looks like you had a big movement! :)

  • Julie

    Good trade GG I have a small position GDX and commented on the consolidation in a previous post Expecting the consolidation to breakdown and will evaluate EOD. Again good trade GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thanks.
    next thousand trades
    keep the loses small, the rest will take care of itself.

  • Julie

    22.42 and 22.30 are critical to hold
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Small position short Q’s too and watching closely Will keep any loss small I have had some excellent trades lately and must take the bad with the good.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG The indices gapped up and was sold into . Not a healthy sign as the Big Boys are selling to retail IMO
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    YEAH ! GG On your chart above DUST Drawing an upper down trend line from the highs price will intersect approx. 30 – 31 matching the upper red band
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thank god.
    my chart skillz suck.
    😉

  • Julie

    I don’t think so !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    the indices have been gapping up for years now and not worth shorting….

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie

    Hi RW I shorted the Q.s (small probe) on a recent trend line break down and planned to add with a bearish close on the daily chart below the 5 ema which did not materialize EXAS has had a nice run up and I believe you stated the P&F target was approx. 70 ?
    JULIE

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    circle the ones where NFP had no effect.

    get a sample size over 10. and we will have the probability.
    😉

    http://www.conceptstew.co.uk/pages/nsamplesize.html

  • Julie

    GG GDX 60 min chart so far a test of the 10/26 low Still have a chance JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/60142317f22bcd306af822f6e8ed65527da48992e0991c8815732596cafe1c6b.jpg

  • Jacksteel06

    Would love to see articles on Crypto!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Q: isn’t that a dark cloud cover? I’m not fluent in Itchy.

    and what is the significance of the duration of that cloud?
    it stretches out far to the right..

  • ridingwaves

    if I mystery shop your business and you suck answering the phones 8 out of 10 times, you suck at answering phones….no different than above, 8 out of 10 seems to be good probability

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Google is your friend.
    Knock yourself out!

    https://spectrum.ieee.org/telecom/internet/wall-street-firms-to-move-trillions-to-blockchains-in-2018

    you haven’t commented in 4 years. what’s the deal!?
    you might have to retake the Hazing ceremony.

  • ridingwaves

    beware of oil, that sector could replace and be proxy for indexes while Fire-tech sectors can breathe some overbought

  • Yoda

    Yes, from Mole’s perspective

  • Julie

    GG sold GDX for a 13 cent loss. Intraday bear flag with low and declining volume. Will consider a long on daily chart with a bullish close above 22,59 Watching the Q.s at present level for a minor double top or false beakout
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    how about that technique on the hourly.
    where price pierces above the band and over the what’cha-ma-call -its?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    he’s been very quiet on the whole topic.

    me thinks he’s into deep research and cahoots with Scott on it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the theory of, hourly looks good first, then daily, then weekly, etc.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Loser of the Day
    Stamps.com

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STMP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19492682835
    well that escalated quickly

    “Never chase a gap”?

  • Julie

    GG I had an early entry on GDX intraday and monitored closely. Minimizes any loss. Yes going above the cloud on the hourly is bullish and an early entry. An earlier entry would be a bullish close above the cloud on the 10 min chart. GDX 22,59 is the Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) on the daily chart and 22.59 matches the upper cloud on the 10 min chart. A confirmation would be going above the upper channel drawn on the 60 min chart posted below. Also 22,59 on the 60 min chart would pierce the lower cloud resistance on the 60 min chart posted
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    scalping L ACAD 36.40 S 35.85

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Right and wrong.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG 30 min Q’s chart I shorted on the trend line breakdown ( high selling volume) VERTICAL BLUE LINE @ 151.85.You can see the MACD 3,9,16 is below it’s signal line and centerline The thick black moving average is the 30 min 65 ema which matches the daily 5 ema. You can see the bounce at this approx. level along with the 30 min 89 ema. Presently there is a breakout above the November 1st high. I should have covered my short at the red vertical line shown going above and closing above the blue minor resistance and above the lower trend line. The trend line on the CCI (horizontal blue line ) was not breached to the downside. As I type the breakout on the 30 min chart is confirmed Covered short for an approx. 1.25 loss https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eca71de2ce17d4d817f191678ec5cfd86f861a964f10373ee44dd534559da9a4.jpg SHOWN IS THE CURRENT 30 MIN CHART .. Being A Blonde …… ! JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    cant wait for BTC

  • evilasevildoes
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    now that’s a plan.

    why didn’t you cover your short at the red vertical?
    distraction? emotion? faulty rule?

  • Julie

    I am a Blonde which explains it all ! With the low volume I was looking for a possible minor double top.or a false breakout. Watching closely as the monthly — weekly and daily charts are overbought. The breakout could still fail. Monitoring on the 30 min chart for possible breakdown below red horizontal line now support ;the lower trend line and the blue horizontal line support
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GG The Q’s A low volume breakout !
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • evilasevildoes
  • Julie

    OK Mole Have had better days Very small loss on GDX and Q.s Plan the trades to a “T” but did not work out. If wrong Julie not wrong long ! Thanks Mole and you and everyone here have a great weekend
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just threw up a little due to nausea.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Entering some sdow, faz very tight stops.

  • Julie

    Everyone and The GG …… QQQ’s going up into the upper channel line . Overbought monthly ; weekly; daily and 60 min. I tried to cut a fat hog in the ass with an early short on the 30 min and took a 1.25 pt loss. Plan now is to short on the daily with a bearish close below the daily 5 ema EOD Today’s breakout above the November 1st high 152.83 is low volume SHOWN IS DAILY CHART Everyone Have A Great weekend ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a42ea283274e613fc7d1bf6827ea9ae2a93e4b29682710f3485082f4c29af31b.jpg JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    I just entered some tza. qqq for me not quite yet but this zone allows for extremely tight stops.

  • Mark Shinnick

    If you exited according to discipline, that counts as a “T” :) In that spirit, it should not matter if a $ win or lose; what matters is that you allowed your model its fair shot to work.

  • Julie

    Mark My husband told me if you know why you made the trade …. The trade is never wrong.
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Overbought doesn’t mean much – can sustain itself for extended amount of time.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, whatever is that edge you see works more often than not, it must have its best shot at correct execution you can be proud of. That in itself is a win in a very tough business sometimes involving a string of $ losses.

  • Julie

    Very true Mole.but gonna watch it at the upper channel line esp with the declining volume
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    were in the mother of all time bull runs, best to wait until the big boys are shorting and follow pat

  • Julie

    Agree RW Always best to short a lower high. My short trades have been small probes RW Have A Great Weekend !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    you also, snowy up in your neck of the woods….good for nature…

  • Julie

    RW Beautiful too ! Winter sports and activities now starting. Always look forward to that as we are outdoors people.
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    HYG’s low today essentially met its objective but mostly a dead cat bounce. I believe that 87.85 area is a shot-over-the-bow inflection against the 3 generation rate trend. Similar to the real estate / drv situation, this bears watching.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    INTC weekly.
    Horseshoes & Handgrenades
    it may be a 57 week cycle, or not.

    for giggles.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/34fd2e2b315603352cfb4ab1b4fdd621a5fc274c2188e2f4062910c0ddf67f40.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I broke out the hot chocolate this week!
    60’s in the AM.
    BRrrrrrrr.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Julie, Mole has a point.

    How about the 9th-16th?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa35cd158f411abe4740933931341eb357609d8328c623817afc36aa0adb8f7c.png

    this is based on an idea of ‘hard time, easy time’ for the RSI

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, I just cant handle all the visuals either.

  • Julie

    Mole GG and Everyone ….. Here is a plan TAL A high flyer that took a substantial dump and run could be over. Daily chart now above and closing above it’s 5 ema.Now observe the Ichi Cloud Daily chart baseline (21) at 30.88 which is target for a low volume bounce. Daily chart is now bearish as price is below the cloud and the conversion line (8) is below the baseline (21) Weekly chart 30 .88 is the Ichi conversion line (8) matching the daily baseline 921) NOW 60 min chart 30.88 is the (1) 50% retracement. (2) upper cloud boundary (3) 50% and 61.8% fib arc (4) A parallel lower channel line. The blue vertical line is an early entry for a long on a possible low volume bounce. The short as you may have now noticed is a low volume bounce retracing 50% to 30.88 SHOWN ARE THE DAILY AND 60 MIN CHARTS JULIE

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    close your books, teachers coming.

    Cheers!

    https://media.timeout.com/images/100743879/320/210/image.jpg

  • Julie

    GG November 9th ? Nice chart GG Thanks !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    With this HY inflection looks like I’m small short equities for the weekend.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if you were big bear short last week, one would DISAGREE.

    there’s a gap down at 132 that needs filling.
    😉

  • Julie

    TAL weekly chart Noti https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0db507501b8953e6cfaf02915869e39b0230327723d00390a0e43f501ae7895c.jpg ce the hammer candle print today Friday off the weekly 34 ema and the Weekly Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) 30.88 JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Definitely not the KISS method. :)

  • Julie

    See it GG
    JULIE

  • Julie

    TAL 60 min chart above positive divergence 60 min MACD 5,34,5
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Blue vertical line is the early entry on the 60 min chart
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I suppose it’s different strokes for different folks but when a chart has so many things on it there is the possibility of having too many conficting signals for me.

  • Mark Shinnick

    BTW, good to see you back.

  • Julie

    TAL closed above the weekly baseline (21) bouncing off the weekly 34 ema
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Mark. :)

  • Julie

    Notice daily chart the daily 21 ema matches the Ichi Cloud baseline (21)
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    AMZN A gap breakout over three resistance zones substantiated by volume (1) October high (2) July high (3) Gap window. Now a pullback to July high now support and subsequent bounce JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d46ae3825b4fde867623c3d50dd2400529514dc25b3e6141b9f35fec5eacad2a.jpg

  • Yoda
  • Mark Shinnick

    Interesting charts with data unique to my models. I don’t know if it adds any edge, but to see a number of analysis sets with correlating setups has always fascinated me; like in just this HYG suggesting tightening BB / lost momo at what my model tells me is a vulnerable price support.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Anyone might naturally say “whoa” to the idea of individual stock investing….I guess these events get used to market etfs.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, one nice EMP in our area of the globe might be more influential. Enough well-placed EMPS, I suppose might even still wipe out the blockchain.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Has there been a bunch of net selling in the real estate / mortgage sector?

  • Yoda

    yup

  • Julie

    YODA and Mark HYG chart above the lower Bollinger band is also support
    JULIE

  • Julie

    YODA and Mark HYG chart above notice the Bollinger band negative divergences in June and July i.e. a close out of the band then a higher close within the band. I always look for these
    JULIE

  • kim

    Mole, I’m positive you’re short :)