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Troublesome Thursday Wrap Up
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Troublesome Thursday Wrap Up

by The MoleJune 16, 2011

After a hopeful start of the session for the longs we slipped into some bearish follow through mid session. Let me make this crystal clear – I trust none of this and although more downside is always a possibility I am patiently sitting this one out.

Well, here’s the video wrap up – watch it and then tell me if that was truly a bearish session. FYI – NYSE D/A today closed at 1.22:1 – compare that with yesterday’s close at 5.36:1. We may be looking at bearish exhaustion here but to be sure we probably need to see another bearish day with less negative breadth. The pattern on the D/A (and A/D) leaves the door open for a slow downside churn that needs to be strongly interrupted (i.e. an aggressive push higher) to find its floor.

Geronimo was not having fun today. It got stopped out on a short trade early in the day, then it took a long trade and encountered an ‘exit condition’ which in the new version keeps it from taking a loss early. Fortunately it then nailed another short trade, reducing the damage to two handles.

Beautiful signals again on Helter Skalper – not sure why nobody is talking about this one but I can only drag to the horse to the water, I can’t make it drink 😉

For the subs here are some Net-Lines on the daily SPX as well as the hourly spoos:
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Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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When I state above that we need a strong confirming push to stop this slide – well, this is what I meant. That buy level is still a few bagel throws away, so it’s dangerous to engage in bottom calling. But I maintain that chasing this tape is a precarious endeavor and that the odds here are low mathematically.

The hourly spoos chart looks ugly – we are in a range right now that will require a decisive move to produce any resolution. If you squint hard you can see some type of expanding diagonal – which is often signals the of a medium term trend.

Cheers,

Mole
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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    Yup – still sitting out too.  Looked long and hard for an excuse to start getting long today and couldn’t quite find one.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the NLBL on the SPX Mole.  

    Today was neither bullish or bearish as far as I’m concerned.  And as you stated, the door is also open to a slow burn as per the A/D.  On my Charts Today, I show net negatives on both A/D and Up Vol Vs. Down Vol after 1:30 PM and even though it wasn’t a strong negative it remained negative all the way to the close.  

    I’m not sure that the Boyz have figured out a way to have the Indices close up strongly with negative internals.  Yet.  

    OTOH, even though it’s not going to make any difference in the end, if and when the IMF throws another few Billion to Greece, BS could surely take over again and the Euro goes up – Dollar Goes down – Oil, Commodities and the Equity Markets Go up and the American Consumer get’s screwed again.  This play is getting old but again, none of this has to make any sense.  

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Mole, yes no chasing it down, 
    afterhours is driving up close to Net Buy line

  • volar

    bobby.. 

    none of this:

    “OTOH, even though it’s not going to make any difference in the end, if and when the IMF throws another few Billion to Greece, BS could surely take over again and the Euro goes up – Dollar Goes down – Oil, Commodities and the Equity Markets Go up and the American Consumer get’s screwed again.  This play is getting old but again, none of this has to make any sense.”
    will help your trading.. remember my economic surprise index chart? Just saying news and fundamentals hurt trading…. trade your system, not news.

  • Anonymous

    Mole: Did we close outside the upper BB on the VIX? Also, I’m all for trying the Helter Skalper – just show us how to get at it!

  • http://profiles.google.com/acabrera768 andres cabrera

    well said, because frankly I nearly capitulated with the same feeling seeing the the Eur/usd going further up and my take profit was hit at 4150. Then selling at that level now wondering if my stop at 4225 is going to get a black eye.

  • Anonymous

    In my humble, un-intelligent, opinion, this tape needs to go “UP” soon and fast, so that we can short some more.  It’s hard to make a move in the middle of nowhere.

  • Anonymous

    ” trade your system, not news.”

    That’s exactly what I’m doing.  

    I don’t trade the news anymore because it’s all Bull Shit until something happens like it did in 2008 and even then you have to sort through even more Bull Shit.  

    However, I do have fun commenting on the insanity and lack of accurate reporting in the financial media.  Right now the media is either Bearish as ZH, as Pollyanna as the CNBC Clowns, or as completely ridiculous as Yahoo Financial News. I usually read this crap purely for sport.  

    My latest trade was originally set up on June 1st.  I booked 1/2 Profit and let the other half ride.  I’ve since added to my trade twice and I’ll continue to add until Uncle Bernie has a heart attack from overwork.   OTOH, If we get a 30 Point Rally on the S&P Tomorrow or Monday, I’ll only give up 1/3 of my unbooked  profits because of the June 30 Calls I hold as a hedge.  

    So as far as my trade goes, I really don’t give a shit that much if the IMF wants to throw Billions of Euros away or not.

    However, I do give a shit when my Son In-Law loses his job of 12 Years through no fault of his own this week as the Politicians, Central Bankers and Wall Street Shrills continue to fuck everybody in sight.  But that doesn’t have a damn thing to do with my trading.  

    BTW, I respectfully disagree on what you said about Volume on the last thread.  I go back to 1998 in this business and there was a time that Heavy Volume on the Up Side was Confirmation that the Institutions were Buying and the Exact Opposite with Heavy Volume to the Downside.  The Institutions will also buy on the way down as they are reducing inventory to keep price levels higher so they can avoid a price collapse and sell at higher prices.  This can lead to increased Volume as well.  

    Well that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.   :)

  • volar

    agree. This game has gone on for some time and it unfortunately continues.  The “economy” is a joke, and I think  pragmatic capitalism has a video you would enjoy on that today:

    http://pragcap.com/the-truth-about-the-economy-in-2-minutes

    The economy makes me sick… it think of my kids, and I think I might just send them abroad….

    As for the volume, I agree as well. But I think we are looking at it different ways. You are talking about participation, institutional buying.   That still happens, but  I will say breakout buying is different than capitulation. What I am referring to is smart vs dumb money. Large money managers complain about 1 thing… getting in and out. They may have a system that works, but they cannot get in unless someone panics otherwise they would get a terrible fill.  Also I have found that i always cover my shorts on the volume spike, after the volume spike the risk to reward is terrible. It is that way in every market, but I must admit, upside volume capitulation is very rare in equities (tho 07 comes to mind). So I say the volume spike is bullish in this case because I know what is going on… retail is bearish and panicking. Go figure the highest volume is at the low….

    anyways thanks for the well thought out response. I enjoyed it mate 😉

  • Anonymous

    I would bet most mainstream media is like affiliate marketing. “Say this and I’ll give you a commission.”

  • Anonymous

    call me crazy, but this chart speaks for itself.

    http://screencast.com/t/8WYsZe8hPoB

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, hate to burst whatever bubble there may have been on your end – but that is EXACTLY how it works. The sheer reason financial bubble TV exists is to peddle financial crap to unsuspecting retail traders. Do you really think institutional traders take their tips from Maria? 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “it think of my kids, and I think I might just send them abroad”

    I’m sending myself abroad instead :-)

  • Anonymous

    Could it be More Evil?
    http://screencast.com/t/3gCI3jOcx