Tuesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The E-Mini happens to be lingering around short term support right now. There’s an hourly NLBL which it’s been battling for the past few hours. I want to be long here with a stop below the 25-hour. I am not sure that a drop below would get me into a short trade – IMNSHO a continuation higher (i.e. burning more shorts) would be the easier trade right now.

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 20th, 2012 at 8:55 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good morning everyone!

  • ronebadger

    Hi Mole, keep up the updates.

  • captainboom

    Good morning sir!

  • Pug

    There’s the touch of the 100 MA on AUD/USD. Long at 1.0368.

  • bdoone

    Thanks for morning update.  Slight confusion: You said ‘the 100-hour is sitting right below’ but I see the 100hr at 1362 (20 pts lower than present). Hardly ‘right below’ but is it just relative to the overall picture?

  • Joe_Jones

    Morning

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ll also keep down the downgrades.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Point taken – 20 handles aren’t too shabby at all. I’ll correct it so nobody is confused. 

  • fast and steady

     Buena tarde, señor.

  • Skynard

    Put the /ES back on @ 1379

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Que la pases bien tambien.

  • I Bergamot

    Trying Skynard’s hat on.
    Fancy a DX short around here?

  • Skynard

    Lol, loose 81 here and it will tumble:)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     shorted using usd/jap.

  • Turps

    Hey Mole, could you update the daily zero

  • Schwerepunkt

    Not expecting much in the way of a move in either direction following yesterday’s big jump. Consolidation day, although Benny does open his pie hole at 12:15 and anything can happen. 

  • ronebadger

    Be prepared for a drop to approx. ES 1366, for a nifty reverse H&S (no prediction, just observing….)

  • Schwerepunkt

    1366 is based on what? A rising 100-hr?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     Yea, feels like it.
    but there is no volume today. Want to be short in dull market?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Tonight after the close.

  • AMCabrera

    by je jure adding a short in the usd/cad.

  • Joe_Jones

    a revisit of the volume hole at ES 1388 is definitively possible. If it gets there and I see a blue arrow pointing down, I’ll take off longs and try a 1/3 short position

  • Skynard

    Squeeze on, will take profit at 1400:)

    5 min trenline buy point.

  • Joe_Jones

    Adding to long on VWAP touch.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Bah!
    zig zaggy Spoos chart since 3am.

  • Joe_Jones
  • ronebadger

    just looking at the left shoulders of 11/9 and 11/13

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones
  • BobbyLow

    No, no, no, no, I don’t smoke it no more.  :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHJGUKwNCtk

  • Tronacate

    Took GC short awhile back after 25 hr rejection…..so far so good

  • Schwerepunkt

    Seems a bit contrived and way too abrupt. More like a counter-trend rally. I don’t trust it.

  • Joe_Jones
  • Joe_Jones

    Interesting that it touched the top 100 h BB and reversed

  • Joe_Jones

    FYI SPX 100 d sma at 1391.9, matches the volume hole

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very inspirational.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Gaza cease-fire, as if that has anything to do with anything.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It doesn’t – the market doesn’t care unless they drop a nuke. And then it’ll probably go up ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    just time to reload.
    (oh yes, I’m the cynic)

  • AMCabrera

    im done with usd/cad not doing much of anything for me.

  • BobbyLow

    Regarding Oil, how about this?  

    The 14 Day CCI closed in way overbought territory at +225 yesterday.  A correction was in the cards.  

    But then the Gaza cease fire comes along today which could be in place for at least a few hours.  This occurrence exacerbates a correction that was supposed to take place anyway.
    Then tomorrow it’s back to our normally scheduled broadcasting.  :)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    try a different position (snicker)

  • AMCabrera

    bending nzd/usd over. going short this.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Inside day on USD/CAD – just sayin’…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    PLUS we held at the 25-day SMA…

  • BobbyLow

    I’m still short but with a stop at about 20 Pips above the hourly which is also at BE.

    BTW, I think I’m going to start managing open position stops on hourly’s during my awake time and then change to being based on the dailies during my sleep time.  

    Does this make any sense?  

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You should have done that at the NLBL mate. Not a good entry here IMNSHO.

  • Tronacate

    Nice moves on GC and SI…….probably exit at 100hr if we make it on GC

  • AMCabrera

    well, being asleep with wider stops could be ok if your willing with no regret AT ALL to take a larger lose then it would make sense.

  • AMCabrera
  • Tronacate

    1/2 off GC at 100 hr……holding a lottery ticket

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/6aad88d5-0f1f-4867-9a13-da03546baf81/2012-11-20_1231.png
    I will keep a close eye on this mole. If a id does occur we already know the setup. 

  • AMCabrera

    Im gonna have to start pulling my eur/aud that was triggered earlier at 1.2300. NO edit change of plan placing at b/e…sorry if you went long at 1.2300 as that increased the chances of 1.2300 getting tagged ten fold.

  • AMCabrera

    (walking to yen section) tsk tsk. Almost time almost.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/3f7321f6-fede-428e-aa27-0fe646351080/2012-11-20_1247.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/d4eb4bab-2415-4368-bd74-41d46c43c9b3/2012-11-20_1248.png
    actually firing one round into aud/jpy and slashing up my eur/gbp positions from yesterday in half. no double yet but shit just got stupid in these pairs across board. StOP will be at 84.90 no hesitation to get the hell out if it moves above that.

  • BobbyLow

    I hear ya on the risk of larger losses.  

    My thought is that I want to avoid within reason stop runs that occur during the night.  My stops are always set at maximum tolerable loss on new trades whether or not they are set on daily or hourly.  Once the trade is profitable, stops are adjusted for the maximum gain that still allows room for reasonable stop runs to occur.  (With Bands taken into consideration)

    Right after 5 PM last night was a perfect example of knee jerk bullshit with the announcement that France was being downgraded.  The EURO immediately took a pretty good sized dump of 45 PIPs against the USD.  Of course by 5 AM this morning it had come completely back.   I had a wide enough stop that this move did not affect me.  

    So I guess the bottom line is that there is no absolute standard as to managing positions.  But one thing I do know is that FX entries are easy but managing open positions is where the rubber meets the road.

  • Tronacate

    Closed GC position……will wait for next setup…….maybe at breach of 100hr or retest or breach of 25hr

  • StrikeFirst

    Upside is limited, I think.

    Price stays within this channel 95% of the time, or something like that.

  • newbfxtrader

    @sky /zm,/zs on the move. Let’s see if we can pick it up.

  • AcoBrasil

    Looks like we’re headed toward a possible inside day on the $VIX – and day two outside of the bollinger band.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    congratulations, you’ve won the Volar-of-the day award. ;-)

    ” about 95% of the values lie within two standard deviations”
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
    -Gerb

  • Skynard

    Lol, /ZS did what had thought it would. tested and tagged the 100 lower BB. A rocket after that!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    but I believe the Market is NOT normally distributed. ;-)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    So far this drop in equities is not confirmed by either Dollar or Long Bond

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    welcome!  are you new here?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    run the stops IMHO.  the $TICK’s were undulating so nicely.
    one got shoved to -1100

  • AcoBrasil

    Thanks! 

    Lurking for about a year now.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    great.
    I’ll give you a like for speaking up.
    there, now you have two comments and one like.

  • Skynard

    Yep, stopped me out. Long again 76.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I guess Benny disappointed. 

  • StrikeFirst

    Not standard deviation levels.

    Read up on J.M Hurst

  • BobbyLow

    Out USD/CAD at BE and took Profit on EUR/USD.  Could get back in either or both some time today but will wait a bit.

    Still Long EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY.

    Also holding on to Long Oil for now. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Yep, and as I said earlier, yesterday’s action caused oil to become temporarily overbought and a haircut was needed.  We got a buzz cut indeed.

    BTW, I can’t see a Xmas rally happening without the Oilers and without the Financials.  Can you?

    Or maybe the market is going to put lumps of coal in everyone’s stocking.  

    WDIK?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    now at 1379
    curios, does deeper pockets give more courage on falling knives?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    All we can do is trade our setups.
    WDIK has been the best for me this year, stubborn biases are killer.

  • AcoBrasil

    Since you seem like a generous guy, any chance you can bid VIZ12 to 30 or so by market close on Friday? 
    :)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    THIRTY!?!?
    not Even Santa could pull that off.

    http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/VIZ12

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     For sure.
    Under-capitalization is the biggest problem of most ind traders.

  • AcoBrasil

    Don’t get me wrong. I’ll settle for 25, but was really hoping to retire by the weekend…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸




    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. NinjaTrader
    Kinetick

    search warrant



  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Freaky Forex Friday
    2. Better Not Fighting This…
    3. The Squeeze Is On!
    4. Post Fed Musings
    5. Strap On Your Helmets
    6. When There’s Blood In The Streets
    7. Monthly Support
    8. Thrashed
    9. Under The Weather
    10. Not A Game For Adrenaline Junkies