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Tuesday Road Map
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Tuesday Road Map

by The MoleJune 8, 2010

So, we’ve sold off quite a bit in the past few weeks. Based on the comments I know many of you got tragically whipsawed out of perfectly good short positions and have been waiting for a bounce to load up again. Well, I have good and bad news for you – here’s tomorrow’s road map and an extra goodie.

Hey, whatever you do – don’t ask for directions!

We have descended to the point where we probably paint a little bounce – besides the current wave form counts nicely as a picturesque motive wave (you can print that one, cut it out, and use it as a wall paper pattern). Anyway, it’s not guaranteed and the train may just steam downward, but if we do I see us reverse around the 1077 mark. After that we follow the fib marks until 1095. Now if we breach that then something else is going on and we may just have to put up with Soylent Orange.

A lot of folks are talking about deeply oversold conditions. Well, yes – we did close below the 20% mark on my kick ass weekly stochastic chart (which is really kick ass I may want to emphasize – if you play this one on a weekly basis alone you’re banking royal coin). Anyway, closing below the 20% mark but that’s not what we are looking for. Yes, your superior stainless rodent intellect has not let you down – we are indeed looking for a breach above the 20% mark. Which is probably when we’ll get something like Intermediate (2) of Primary {3} – or we get a little fake out breach, just like at the beginning of Primary {1} back in November 2007 and January 2008, followed by more downside.

If we get a breach below 1040.78 then I would most likely dismiss any breaches above the 20% mark on my weekly SPX chart as a fake out. Why? Because at that time the wave form would be incomplete and I would expect a third wave to ensue in pretty short order. Never forget – on all time frames stochastics can remain overbought for quite a while. However, I have to concede that this rarely happens on weekly stochastics on the buying end, Reason being is that bear markets move rather fast on the downside and it is those annoying bear market corrections that linger on the upside (i.e. the 80%+ mark) – which is why you saw the stochastics remain embedded repeatedly during 2009.

Alright, you have been briefed – go out there, play it safe, but don’t take any prisoners 😉

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Core short from 1103, if I get whipsawed out of those short futures, I WILL BE PISSED.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Push me pull you…./ES and the Euro

    http://screencast.com/t/Y2U2ZTBh

  • katzo7

    Don't get mad, get even. lol

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    K keep posting you are doing good!

    http://screencast.com/t/ZmFmYzYwMDEt

  • chronographics

    Kat dont you sleep or you based in the best part of the world like Stevo and me?

  • katzo7

    LOL re pic. I try to do my best and I guess that creates a lot of controversy. I just cannot figure that out.

  • katzo7

    East Coast, Massachusetts. Do not need very much sleep, 3 to 5 hours a night. When in college could sleep through first three classes but never did. Possessed I think.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Where you stay chrono?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    You could hang out with Market Sniper!

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Having an opinion creates a target, like grounding a PV array creates a target for lighting! Germans don't do that, the PV grounding I mean.

  • chronographics

    Auckland NZ, great place to live shit place to trade from although we do get to see some great monday gaps in the currencies. Was easier to trade when I lived in Asia or London (was the best) but outside of trading there are good reasons to be here.

  • chronographics

    People dont always get what other bloggers are on about. We all wear different glasses so we all see things differently, its easy to get offended or offend someone else when it has not really been meant like that.

  • katzo7

    Thnx C.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Do you need more than steady power supply and good bandwidth?
    I was thinking of moving to NZ since Hawaii is rather primitive and in a real P3 could be a downright nasty place to be. Maybe NZ wouldn't be much better?

  • chronographics

    Hmm from earlier talk with you remember that you were there, NZ should be one of the better places to be. Generally people still help each other here – but not as much as used to be. Pretty good on food and resources and in the end you can live cheaply. Let me know if you plan to come over for a visit and I can certainly show you around Auckland.

  • katzo7

    PCLN
    I am nothing, just a speck of sand. But sometimes things are very clear to me. I am all about teaching, how I go about it, the teach fishing stuff. I am a visual person and could not figure out a balance sheet. This is real basic so advanced ppl can skip over it. But I have to go over this stuff repeatedly, it helps my trading.

    See this level PCLN is at now. We have hit an important point, had the requisite bounce, came back down, and am now thinking about either breaking though or moving up. General market direction will determine this. Look at that oscillator. If this breaks through, and the market action is supportive . . . . . .

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • Turbodrive

    Katzo, what do you see for today? Do you think we're going up or maybe consilidating between 1050-60?

  • chronographics

    Nice. I only trade indexes, currencies Metals and Oil. What I see you have is a method and a plan and you follow it. That alone is worth teaching people who want to trade. I have seen traders with less than average systems make good money because they were disciplined and had good money management skills. At the end of the day there are no guarantees and even the best system/method has a bad period, if you dont have the other skills it could be bye-bye – that's Byebye not BuyBuy lol

  • jacksoo

    all a little odd across the Tasman steveo – – i think its the cold and wet weather – – most NZ folk live on the Gold Coast…….

  • katzo7

    Hey jacksoo.

  • jacksoo

    hi katzo – nice work yesterday – -topping out around 64-66 for push lower today?

  • katzo7

    Hey Turbo,
    Look on previous thread. I go over it there. It gets harder now, no sure thing. I have to work for much of the day so will not be around, maybe in the afternoon. The higher we go (in profits), the more rarefied the air is. Danger abounds.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNRRg7WuG8

  • chronographics

    Yup its called a stealth takeover lol. Weather here is not as great as the Gold Coast BUT we have water -ouch- and no creepy crawlies and I am not talking about the Aussies

  • katzo7

    Hard to say, I still think lower. 1023 is pivot I see at this point. Not for today but soon.

  • chronographics

    Euro still looks like it needs to complete a 5 down and EURJPY also short of its target 103/4. I keep saying this – WATCH the US Long Bond.

  • jacksoo

    LOL – -yeah, we do have a few natives that add excitement to life.

  • chronographics

    EUR looks like it is trading heavy and Osc have crossed down on hourly. break below 1.1910 could see acceleration to downside.GBP also looks heavy and has been holding up but think it may well have more downside potential than the EUR – Ok I am short so talking my Book. Should see sub 1.4250

  • Zero % forever

    Heard rumours that there is a emergency FEDERAL Reserve meeting today at noon !

  • katzo7

    I just saw this, I have done lots of work on engulfing. If you guys ever see engulfing on various time frames, plz point it out to me.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • katzo7

    Watch %R in conjunction with MACD on longer time frame, answer is there. Post a chart for me to view?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I like engulfing on the tail end of a push upward, not on a dead cat bounce type of structure…personally.
    I try to catch the engulfing 1 hour before the close, then bet it. Chances are the next AM, you are too late already!
    IMHO.

    Went on dog walk….account up $2k…..in that time…..this market is out of control.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Bear flag on Euro methinks.

  • chronographics

    Agree, lol good timing on GBP it got a bit of a push down :-)

  • chronographics

    Sure – bear with me I have a Mac I am still trying to get to know….

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    What did you think of the traders in London? Are they they real deal, or as emotional as most?

  • katzo7

    Jacksoo et al,
    Look at this, see the red arrow, this is where we should have turned higher for an EW5 final up move. Looks to be broken. And note all of the red candles. Looks like 61 area was top for now.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • katzo7

    Yeah.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    But I like the mojo….check this volume on futures….it's like all the Goldman boys are on crack all night.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZmFmYzYwMDEt

  • katzo7

    Same dog link as before.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Sorry Jing locks up on me pretty often, check ES….waterfall of sorts, I added at 1060…..

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I remember now…..I'll try to get over there sometime. Airfare to Japan, $600, Airfare to Chicago $1600 WTF?!

  • katzo7

    Notice that yesterday I did a full boat, a full load of ES an an opportune time? Boy, that sucker teased me unmercifully prior.

  • jacksoo

    yeah – -i think i missed the entry

  • chronographics

    Having trouble cant seem to grab the screen, will work on this and hope to master it shortly….

  • jacksoo

    are you using Jing with your Mac?

  • katzo7

    I just pointed everyone up. I guess I have too much time on my hands. lol

  • chronographics

    Got to say of all the major centers London has probably the most professional traders, and I have been in all the big ones. NY traders good but no order flow they are lost. just MNSHO :-)

  • chronographics

    Ha who got chance to sell GBP? come on hands up….

  • katzo7

    ES testing support

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Sweet, I hope you didnt cave, I closed some shorts and then reshorted higher….
    Up about 32% in both trading accounts in 24H, sick sick stuff.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    what level

  • katzo7

    64.25

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    look at the bear flag on the Eur/USD, Eur to 1.16, that would break all the US equity support!

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    ??

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    your mean 1046?

  • katzo7

    yeah

  • katzo7

    As you can prolly tell from my posts, I am a long term bear, core position, in and out on small amounts.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Is that just the 2 “thin tail” horizontal support?

  • katzo7

    ??

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    No doubt, the fundamentals are horrific.

  • katzo7

    Headed here IMO ST. Double red arrow.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    The 2 recent long spikes down…..I call them thin tails.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    having a run at 1046 again, Euro driving

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I like it,

  • katzo7

    T2=45 in sight

  • katzo7

    I will prolly be fully long, full boat @ 45.

  • katzo7

    T3=52-5

  • katzo7

    Out ! +2

  • sela84

    damn katzo you need some rest :) i just hope you catch up sleep over the weekend

  • katzo7

    No time to sleep S.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I would re-infest myself with lice sooner than I would take any long position.

  • katzo7

    I will do full boat again @ 45

  • chronographics

    I just took my shorts back from 1057.75 look to sell again.
    Just took back 100k GBP still have most of position, short. See how we go from here

  • katzo7

    lol

  • jacksoo

    going long from 45 – 38 not in the offing katzo?

  • chronographics

    Mate not a nice picture :-)

  • katzo7

    Not soon IMO

  • jacksoo

    upside tgt mid 60's?

  • katzo7

    Jacksoo, throw an oscillator on the 1 min. and tell me what you see.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah, long positions are graphically disturbing 😉

  • jacksoo

    room to rise RS struggling around this level for last 2hrs

  • katzo7

    My levels are premo, not braggin' and f*ckin kind of surprised myself at the accuracy.

  • katzo7

    Failed rally, T3 dead

  • jacksoo

    sorry katz you're going to need to give me a bit more of a heads-up

  • raised_by_wolves

    My up channels provide structure for this downtrend.

    Daily

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    30m

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • katzo7

    things happen fast, best to sit out if unsure

  • Turbodrive

    …and now we break 1045? 😉

  • katzo7

    sideways sh*t

  • raised_by_wolves

    Any bets when my Russian roulette line breaks decisively? It took SLV going up 4% to keep the close barely above water.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • chronographics

    Nice break of that neckline.

  • raised_by_wolves

    (JNK/TLT)

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    I think Mole's various bouncing soylents would require a headfake here. To headfake or to drop?

  • raised_by_wolves

    I use Jing on my Mac. No problems.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I use Jing on my Mac. What's the trouble?

  • raised_by_wolves

    If you hate the sun like I do, go to “More…” then “Preferences” and check “Use menubar instead of sun.”

  • jacksoo

    yeah, me too.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Nice. I love Macs. I like to trade AAPL too (though usually short).

  • jacksoo

    recent apple convert – -shld have done it years ago —

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm going to bed now, but feel free to describe what you don't get or what is going wrong and I will reply to it later.

  • chronographics

    Thanks, just cant seem to get a screen shot of the charts to post. Will look at the help menu but if I cant figure it out will let you know. Have a good one :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    I've been using Macs most of my short life. It's six hours past my bed time. Good night/morning.

  • chronographics

    Sorry was out of room for a while, will try this. Thanks

  • jacksoo

    also using Jing with MacBook so if i can help just shout

  • raised_by_wolves

    Click the Jing menubar icon

    then click Capture (alternatively use the Command-Shift-1 keyboard shortcut)

    then click-hold-drag-let-go-wherever-you-like-them-yellow-lines.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hope that helps. Later.

  • chronographics

    Guess first step is to get Jing then lol .

  • raised_by_wolves
  • chronographics

    Cool guys here is a test:
    http://screencast.com/t/ZDg3NzM3Nm

    How you like them apples? :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    You can do screen shots without Jing (for instance, just press Command-Shift-4 to get Mac OS X's built-in cross hairs . . . press spacebar to toggle window capture and press esc to get out of it without actually taking a screen shot). However, Jing is more full-featured and can automatically upload those screen shots to the internet.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good!

    http://content.screencast.com/users/CaptainJing

    Now reload. How do you like this preview of mine?

  • chronographics

    K thought there was an internal way to do it. But Jing is easy, so will play around with it and post a few charts in future.
    Thanks for the help.

  • chronographics

    Lol will let you know as soon as I can get it loaded….

  • raised_by_wolves

    The internal way is good if all you want to do is save a screen shot to your hard disk, but Jing makes it so quick and easy to get the screen shot uploaded to share with all your fellow Stainless Steel Rats.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Formatted on this page, our discussion has become ridiculously narrow.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    LOL!

  • katzo7

    Exactly what I thought would happen happened. It spooked me out ar 47 area, came back down and tapped my T2, then went to T3 of 51. Be careful here, 53 may be in view of final run.

  • chronographics

    Cant seem to reload this page or load that URL. Happens sometimes, will keep trying

  • raised_by_wolves

    Command-R doesn't work? Do it a couple times in a row.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Do you watch /HG while trading /ES?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Alright. Going to bed for real.

  • katzo7

    No,

  • chronographics

    Nah mate no luck and now seem to have lost a lot of the posts that were up. might sign out and log back in..

  • raised_by_wolves

    I put /ES, /HG, and /6E side by side and I don't even trade futures. I rebought June RUT puts yesterday and haven't even looked at a RUT chart.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Well, those posts should be lower down the page where they belong (in chronological order).

  • raised_by_wolves

    I mean, chronological order for the original post with the replies under it.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Press command-F and start typing chronographics . . . click the arrow to the next instance and the next and the next.

  • katzo7

    Be careful as I said earlier establishing any new shorts here.
    1) there is a huge candle on the 5 min.
    2) the MACD on the 5 is threatening to break the zero line
    3)ST EW count has switched to up
    4)T= 53 as stated earlier, then we see what it looks like from there

  • chronographics

    K all sorted, Thanks again!
    And now back to making coin while you sleep…

  • jacksoo

    missed short entry from 64 (plan anyway) – perhaps Ms Mkt wants to re-run pattern to 64-66 resis and then head toward your 45-44?

  • SkiingBear

    Big picture chart
    Is EUR/USD leading SPX by 100 days?
    http://www.fotosik.pl/pokaz_obrazek/pelny/d23b8
    I will have nothing against it;-)

  • katzo7

    OK. Here is what I think. First this is turnaround Tuesday. I have been watching ES during the morning and this morning action has “confused” my indicators, sometimes this happens. When they are not running concurrent to each other, I get no edge. I will be unavailable for much of the day BTW. Sometimes it is a good idea to just sit back and watch, don't get caught up in a need to trade all of the time. The market will always be there.
    Potential targets I am getting are 1057-67, a wide range showing the confusion.

  • DudePlunger

    Short /QM Oil from 71.600. Current stop at 73.600, but I may limit my losses if we start rallying strongly above yesterday's high.

    Concerning the /ES, I am waiting for now. It looks like the /es is creating a tight spring that is ready to burst higher to 1070-1080, but I will short if we break below the overnight lows.

  • ricebowl

    Some advice I plan on taking myself: fade all moves in the 9:30 – 10:30 time frame. Since we're up, I plan on shorting in ~30 mins.

  • tradingmom

    I'm looking to short at the top of the hour or 1060, whichever comes first.

  • DudePlunger

    Had to go long /ES at 1054.75 to hedge my short oil. Stopping Oil @ 72.6

  • BobbyLow

    Good advice.

    Most mornings I try to “sit on my hands” and let the 1st half hour to 1 hour sort itself out.

    Also I've found option prices to be hit or miss right after the open so for me it's better to wait.

  • DudePlunger

    Looks to me like there is some very good activity today, volume is strong and activity on the floor of the S&P has been solid.

  • DudePlunger

    I'm adding a second contract long a break of the day's high.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Given the volatility lately, I've had good success waiting until a point in the day when a direction is finally established. Yesterday it took until around 2pm to finally start strongly pointing down, but I still picked up 2% from that point (trading FAZ).

  • katzo7

    Huge swings, relatively, market on crack, IMO let is settle down.

  • ricebowl

    Quite true, my friend. The prices get skewed as the option market makers are projecting where they think SPX is going to settle at, and it takes maybe 5 or 10 minutes for it to sync up with SPX cash. Sometimes that may play in your favor, but often if I liquidate a position in the AM it is because it's a loser, and selling into the open is like bending over and asking politely to be raped.

    I wanted to dump my July puts at the open and rebuy later, but I decided against. Just as well that I didn't.

  • yudhisthira

    I was trying to sleep-in on my day off.
    Had to look at blackberry. Had to jump up, shower, etc.
    Run downstairs and you guys tell me to calm down.
    Good advice on first hour.

  • katzo7

    You hearing voices? Just kidding, they are giving good advice, how ya doing guy?

  • ricebowl

    Update: I missed my opportunity to short, so I'm just sitting on my hands for the moment. If we go up, I add to my short position. If we go down, I bank coin. I almost can't lose here.

  • yudhisthira

    TZA train still running apparently.
    I thought maybe I had to bail.
    I will reposition if necessary, but now that I am on duty,
    doesn't look like it.

  • psycho_puppies

    Come on virgin! Give the fat lady an orgasm!

  • katzo7

    Up 2.55%, I am holding LT.

  • ricebowl

    If we put in a solid bottom in the 1040-1045 range, the bears are toast. For that to happen we'd have to bounce pretty hard like the previous two times we touched the range, and that is something that I don't see happening.

  • skynard

    Not having a secret decoder ring yet, What level are you watching? 1040? IMO, if this is a 3 of 3 we should fall below 1040 and short the dickens out of it.

  • ricebowl

    You have to avoid the trap of hubris, of assuming that there is only one possibility. I don't think a bottom at 1040 is likely, but I have to allow for the possibility. This would be a triple bottom. With all the blood in the water, I really think the third time's the charm and the previous bounce at 1040 was simply out of respect for the bottom put in at 1044.50 in Feb.

  • DudePlunger

    Solid plan. I'm long 2 /es and short 2 oil. Looks to me like both charts are getting ready for a big move. Just managing my risk on both and getting ready for whichever way we go.

  • psycho_puppies

    Seems like too many are looking for a pop to short or a floor to go long.. … I say we can now crash.

  • Long_John_Silver

    Is that a divergence on the zero lite?

  • yudhisthira

    It is, but we are so far below vwap.

  • bananaben

    I'm starting to feel the flames again we are definitely approaching the gates of Hell! Last time I felt the flames though it was me who got burned :(

  • DudePlunger

    The main zero is not really respecting this push lower…..

  • ricebowl

    Volume is low. NASDAQ is selling a lot harder than SPX, and DJI is barely red. I see indecision more than conviction.

  • ricebowl

    Traded into a lower strike for the same month on my puts. I dumped July 46 QQQQ for July 43 QQQQ. I am going to wait a little while longer, but I may add calls very soon.

  • DudePlunger

    Yeah. I just keep buying /ES on each of these 5min dojis. Bought a 3rd at 1044, stopping at 1041.5.

    My stops on oil are above yesterday's high, so it would be nice if we saw a late day push back into the 1060s today, and my oil contracts were not stopped out, essentially creating a risk free trade in oil.

  • Clint

    I agree. Even die hard bears are looking for a couple hundred point rally from which to short again. Very tricky here.

  • bshah

    Any thoughts on GS & ATPG.. ?

  • ricebowl

    Hate to be the bearer of bad tidings, but if we don't see fireworks within the next few minutes, we're going up, up, and away. I see dojis and small candles at the bottom followed by quick thrusts up. Unless it gets reversed fast, the bulls have regained control of the ball for the day.

  • yudhisthira

    An attempt to recover vwap. Now would be the time for bulls to do it.

  • ricebowl

    Update: I'm out of most of my puts. I kept my July 43 QQQQ puts but added June FAS calls to rebalance for the short-term move.

  • Rayden

    oil has a beta of about 2 relative to SPX in the short term. oil has a lot more microvolatility too, so this is only true on day to month timescales. if you want to be direction-neutral, the approx ratio is long 3 ES short 1 QM or vice versa. of course that may not be what you want, just mentioning.

  • Clint

    If the $COMP makes a big turnaround here I could see that happening. Huge drag on the market right now though.

  • ricebowl

    There was the previous two times at 1040, too. It didn't turn around until it had already traced 10-15 points up. This is anyone's game right now, but I don't see the bears prevailing here with so much indecision.

  • ricebowl

    There comes decision. What a crazy ride.

  • Long_John_Silver

    interesting, thanks for this

  • Clint

    It's a tug of war here to be sure. But the $COMP and the $SPX are horribly weak against the DJIA so I think today still favors a red close.-Really important area here for both sides.

  • yudhisthira

    Russell down 1.76%
    Dow hiding move to public.

  • DudePlunger

    Thanks for that. I'm long 3 /ES and Short 2 /QM. I wanted to be slightly long in the 1040s, but with potential to capitalize on any oil move lower. Looks like oil is stronger as its heading higher a lot faster than /ES here.

    But my risk is key. I'm risking $1200 total on /QM with much larger profit potential on the /ES with a target of 1050-1060. But let's see, for now, it's keeping my account relatively level and has responded very well in this recent bounce after new lows at 1041.25.

  • jigdaddy

    was that an 8 point move in one minute?

  • DudePlunger

    I will add a 4th /ES long at 1056.25, a break of the morning's high. I have a target of 1060-1070 for today if we can get above the pivot at 1055.

  • DudePlunger

    Zero lite beginning to point up here. We have seen some good volume today……may be an accumulation day.

  • Tooncez

    I don't know how to do TA, but was that a little iv h&s on the 5min?

  • yudhisthira

    If that was a fake out, it was pretty good. Vwap recovered, zero lite positive.

  • amokta

    Ok, now lets get back up to spx 1090, so i can but some puts again (WHY did i close too early!)

  • DudePlunger

    It's sloppy, not much of a right shoulder, looks more like a simple double bottom to me.

  • Tronacate

    Good time to reload high beta puts

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    /NQ leading the way down, both today and yesterday. Good sign for the bears?

  • raised_by_wolves

    But copper is positive. At the minimum, I'll wait for it to go negative again.

  • yudhisthira

    Wouldn't take much to lose vwap from here.
    Hourly zero still slightly negative.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Had a horrible night – won't be a pretty day for me. I'll chime in after Once my brain works, sorry guys.

  • Kudos

    Might want to consider waiting for the EUR/USD test of the 1.990 1.2010 area before going all in in any direction.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Did you get in a fist fight too? I broke some guy's nose. I hope it wasn't you.

    Anyway, sexy has broken this 10 d 1m VWAP band. It could retest it and then continue moving up.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves

    Kudos to you and wise words too.

  • yudhisthira

    Was it your own damn fault?
    Or was a woman to blame?

  • Rayden

    good luck. btw, remember how i mentioned that oil will move up if containment efforts on the spill appear successful? well, the low was put in the day BP started top kill, and even though that didn't work out i think people's overall impression is still of successful containment now with the cap. so i think oil will keep moving up, or at least not drop hugely, until we run into some (inevitable) problems with the relief wells. ppl in the industry estimate it may take a few dozen tries (!) before a relief well hits the right area… wait until the first few failures and watch oil (and BP stock) tumble then.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LMAO!! I can't believe we bounced half a handle above the prior low. See guys, this is why we don't chase the market down. The MMs love to punish the weak hands just ahead of big inflection points.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dude, you punch like a girl!

  • DudePlunger

    Long 4 /ES AVG @ 1051.75
    Short 2 /QM @ 71.700

    Holding and waiting here

  • DudePlunger

    Thanks, I remember that comment you made and have mentioned it to more than one person since.

    I'll be picking at oil near resistance levels. Eventually, I'll build a 2-3 contract position that will be around during a solid $2-$5 fall over 2-3 days.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah, you want some more blood splattered? 😉

  • Tronacate

    Good point

  • raised_by_wolves

    View the indices divided by UUP. In constant dollars, ($INDU)/(UUP) made a new low today. So far, this has been a wussy bounce. I hope the bulls can double the punch. Something like this:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • Kudos

    Failed attempt to breach 1.20 … Stay frosty!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I think bulls are playing dead here, but I'm not 100% certain. What if the bulls are really dead?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thus far A/D ratio remains solidly bearish at 0.7 (D/A 1.4).

  • raised_by_wolves

    My own damn fault, of course.

    http://knowyourmeme.com/i/19720/original/125341

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks, yo.

  • katzo7

    Watch MACD on the 15, if it breaks zero we go up again, if it dies, potential good place to short.

  • Long_John_Silver

    thanks, very helpful

  • vasiltrade

    Thanks for the help!

  • katzo7

    Looks to be very strong potential to break higher, again, try to determine top and perhaps short with a good stop above. T=1060 but I am watching closely, that is tentative.

  • Darkthirty

    You got a ST count Kat?

  • Kudos

    Sexy divergence

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sexy's riding my line from way the hell back.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Could this be the B of an ABC correction upward?

  • Wave_Surfer

    Good job.
    To me, that looks more convincing than many of those types of charts look.

  • DudePlunger

    I'm stopping all 4 of my /ES contracts @ 1050 (total risk=$50 :D, though I've already booked a $275 loss)
    This is the point where we either head to 1060+ or we reverse and head into the abyss.

    On oil I am risking $1,050. If /ES rallies hard, I expect to be stopped out of oil, but as long as /ES rallies above 1060, I'd still be able to book $1,000.

    Very interesting day today so far to say the least. I'm positioned now with stops in place and will simply wait.

    Best Case Scenario—-We rally above 1060, but my oil doesn't get stopped out.
    Worst Case Scenario—I get whipsawed to death, stopped out of oil /ES and then stopped out of Oil, for a $1400 loss on the day.

  • sela84

    it is my first trade based on MACD also and it is playing out nicely thanks Katzo

  • raised_by_wolves

    Copper has taken my 25% channel line again. We'll see if it holds. If it does, time to draw some extensions on the upside . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves

    Not holding.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Not falling hard either.

  • BobbyLow

    Just a thought here but what led on the way up is leading on the way down and that is the Naz and Russell

  • Kudos

    and the euro and copper

  • ricebowl

    D'oh! I left thinking that my position was mostly neutral, but I bought FAS puts instead of FAS calls that I thought I'd bought. Today is not a good day.

  • BobbyLow

    Our old pal Goldman is making new Lows. This brings a tear to my eye. :)

  • DudePlunger

    Got stopped out of my 4 /ES. Lost ($412.50) hedging oil today, but here we are now and things seem to be falling with the zero confirming.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Things may change for you here soon, FAS might be on the way down…

  • ricebowl

    I noticed. I was about to average down my position when it shot from 1052 to 1047. I'm still pissed at my own mistake, though. I should have closed that trade at profit.

  • equity_momo

    Averaging down. 2 words that bring a shudder to my spine.

  • bshah

    have 2 JULY FAS CALLS and had LMT order at 3.15, didn't get that one and now down to 2.86… A LOOSER.. darn.. well, still up $5

  • bshah

    Anyone thinks GS may reverse it's course.. or it's done for a while.. what a ride.. from $180… but it's too big.. Don't we agree

  • ricebowl

    It's how I roll… I make it a habit to position myself early and call the top. Knowing that I'll miss it, I scale into a position. My biggest risk is being too conservative and having most of my cash on the sidelines when the move comes.

    In this case I was not looking to scale in or out, but since my hedge was (due to my error) a doubling down on my position at the bottom, I was going to average the whole thing down.

  • Tronacate

    TRIN finally pushing up…..could get real ugly at the eod

  • DudePlunger

    I think I'm gonna take a 30min jog/calisthenics workout.

    How are you guys trading today? Seems to me like today was a fading scalper's paradise.

  • ricebowl

    Are you a buyer at these levels, then?

    My personal thought is that it's too dangerous if the market is flirting with 1040. The potential reward is big, but the risk is big, too, and given the way the market has failed to break 1100, I don't think 1040 will hold this time.

  • ricebowl

    Well, besides my broken hedge, I managed to sell some SPY puts at the bottom and buy them back for 6% less. If we break 1040 today, then I'll be a happy camper.

  • Tronacate

    no no no…..don't buy

  • Tronacate

    That's like shorting the rally we had

  • katzo7

    I said 1060 and short, 1058 ES was hit.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • Clint

    The last 5 minutes just did incredible damage to any near term bullish scenario.

  • Tronacate

    A decent long to consider is FAZ….lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • per

    Exited my SSO June putters earlier today and grabbed some SSO June $36 callers @ $0.47 for a swing. Looking at a bounce before our next leg down. Stepped in and bought GLD putters as well as Gold hit a new ATH. G/L!

  • bshah

    no.. I meant to sell it… But couldn't .. It didn't fill the order to sell. sorry for confusion

  • per

    Cashed out all positions. Sidelines. Still believe in a bounce but me thinks we might open weak and finish strong.

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