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Unpopular Opinions

by The MoleMay 3, 2011

Yesterday after the close I strolled out digitally for a bit of slumming over on ZH. In a comment to a post regarding a purported mini flash crash in the silver futures I pointed out that silver had gone exponential and was due to correct. My suggestion was that being long precious metals in general was risky right now as the boat was extremely one sided and that short/medium term traders should be prepared for a little shake out.

Well, it took about three minutes until I had accumulated the junk limit required to bury my comment. As suspected my opinions on silver were as welcome as Jaja Binks at a Starwars convention.

Sorry for being Mr. Buzzkill – but I do these things for a reason. Yes, I do enjoy being unpopular – it’s all an integral part of being an ‘evil speculator’ and self anointed market megalomaniac. Having an unpopular opinion tells you a lot about yourself as well as about the degree of herd thinking among a population of market participants. Of course this swings both ways – when everyone suddenly agrees with you then it’s usually time to get out.

The focus is on the word ‘everyone’ – see we all live on our respective monkey spheres and your perception of ‘everyone’ may not exactly match reality. See, if you’re currently a bear you’re probably going to talk to a lot of other bears – if you’re a bull you naturally feel at home amongst other bulls. The trick is to step outside your bubble and do a sampling beyond what you perceive your personal comfort zone. Personally I don’t have no allegiances to any camp and thus I’m perfectly at home among market whores, strippers, and cheap skanks. Trust me – the parties are much better.

Of course in life timing is everything and as with yin and yang there are two opposing forces that need to be balanced. Scott put up a little piece by George Soros which I believe elaborates on this point perfect, and since I couldn’t possibly do any better than ole’ George I’ll repost it right here:

I am often asked how one can be a trend trader and contrarian at the same time. Well, there’s your answer – it’s all a matter of timing! Follow the trend when the trend is strong – abandon it when the market is ready to embrace reality and buy into a new lie. In other words – there comes the day when the trend is not your friend anymore 😉

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • I_got_Prechterized

    nice call, I just close some SLV puts from yesterday for massive gains. riding some ZSL still.

  • jigdaddy

    the marines are storming the beach

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yupp – 11:30 is the new start of magic hour – never fails.

  • DarthTrader

    Silver is just above the 38.2% fibo at 40.85 of the Last leg of the Silver move from Jan to April high

    Good place to find support

    Found it 40.81 low today That could be it for the day or we go lower and rally back up to the 40.85

  • tradingmom

    Out all day, jus got to the computer, fascinating that the upper line of that zero channel looks like support even though the zero mark didn't hold. Very happy with my silver trade :-)

  • ronebadger

    Banks/XLF are hanging tough….kinda flat on the day

  • ronebadger

    WOW, who would have thought that killing OBL would have crashed the silver market….go figure…talk about a “black swan”!?!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have a bridge in Alaska you may be interested in.

  • ronebadger

    What part of Alaska?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole, I have an order for a double diagonal SLV May 11/May1 11 42/35/42/35 Call/Put/Call/Put.

    Basically, I'm trying to sell options that expire at the end of this week and buy options that expire the third Friday.

    It weighted for downside risk. Here's what it looks like:

    http://content.screencast.com/

    Hopefully, I'll get filled.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Creative – I'm just not sure we get to 35 by Friday. And if we do – well, I would want to participate in vega. But to each his own.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You nailed this one perfectly tradingmilf!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Enough coin to support another month of subscription I hope 😉

  • nyse

    This is great. Thanks.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I got filled! Ideally, there will be a bounce between now and Friday without silver making new highs. I'll gladly take a drop to 35 too even though I have no vega participation.

  • DarthTrader

    I spread out my AGQ puts a little bit ago based on the combination of Trend line & Fibonacci Support we tested over the last hour expecting another counter trend rally early tomorrow or tonight. I'll be buying them back too soon i bet

  • raised_by_wolves

    Also, I can buy calls . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/

    . . . or puts . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/

    . . . if I want to adjust the tails.

  • tradingmom

    I love the zero :-)

  • bshah

    Dare to touch this fuckers… Who in their mother's …have guts to come and keep this balony down.. That's what i called out y'day.. There is no fuckers buying the dips.. these dicks are part of those TDK …team.. done..mere 3 pts yday, 2 pts today and check this out tomorrow, it will be up 100 pts..

  • bshah

    what' happened on 4:00:20.. to SLV.. jumped back to 42.. ?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Keeps being ignored by the crowd who knows it all. I remember when I posted on it over on SOH – jeezz, the grieve I got… I wish they could see the daily Zero, it yet again nailed the current drop – amazing.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Nice work tradingmom.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How's that for a smut title: TradingMom Does Comex

  • raised_by_wolves

    I may take an actual short position in silver next week if there is a retest and silver fails to make new highs. Right now though, I just want to focus on capturing theta between now and Friday and, if needed, buy some puts or calls.

  • Joe_Jones

    Daily hammer on SPX, albeit red, does not portray to bearish days ahead. Will know tomorrow. I won't be surprised if we have a blow off top for the end of week.

  • skynard

    WoooooooHooooooo! just moved my stop on -2 /SI from this morning. That trade made up for this year and last.

  • amokta

    NIce!

  • raised_by_wolves

    LOL!

    I think that'll really stimulate readers, grabbing their attention and hold it tight.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Way to go, Skynard.

  • x5x5x5x5x5

    lmao. nice, only in es . . .

  • skynard

    Thanks;-) placed a tight stop on that one and have increased my firepower substantially. Come on P3!

  • Clint

    I'd love to see a real blow off top here.Hard to tell with a day like today. Could also be a rotational sideways correction all summer. I really,really hope that is not the case.-C'mon blow off top.

  • convictscott

    Silver traders, cool your emotions. If there is one thing guaranteed to lead to disaster its multiple “w00 h00, its finally happening” posts.

    When you bring emotion into the game you start thinking like a losing trader. 99% of traders get shaken out of their positions BECAUSE THEY THINK LIKE THE HERD.

    If you are short silver, and doing the mexican hat dance, stop it right now. Silver is a massive uptrend. There is support at the 50 EMA and lower bollinger, not too far south.

    Now is NOT the time to be getting excited, its the time for dispassionately examining the facts

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good job so far, heed ConvictScott's words. If you get stopped out, don't play that game where you keep trying to short rising tape.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I, for one, am not thinking like the herd. I missed the big Sunday night move and decided against chasing silver down. Even though it turns out that it would have worked with another significant red candle today, I'm glad I didn't because it's a better practice to wait for a failed retest. In the meantime, I have a trade on that's designed to capture theta (see my three charts below).

  • bisq

    Nice post and reference to Soros on trends.

  • DarthTrader

    In my work Silver has put in the top . . . I'm short until proven otherwise (as of Monday)

    My account balance is rising. Silver has sold off more than 20% more than any previous sell off since August (at this point more like 100% more than any other sell off of this bull) . . . the Chart was clearly parabolic

    I played the long and short side using long profits to buy more puts as we rose confident from over a decade of watching Silver run up parabolas then crash on down the otherside that my delayed gratification would in the end pay off handsomely. Now I'm banking coin redeploying on retracements as the Guy in “reminiscences of a stock operator” said After all it's a Bear market. Most of my option positions are 10+ baggers right now and this move is about 1/3 done . . . Why 10 baggers? Because they're May options and the Risk Reward scenario worked . . . Risk 1 for 20+ with better than 50:50 odds it will come in, in my estimation from trading Silver for 10+ years and some Astrological indications. I'll make that play every Fuckin Time

    Did you guys see Mole posts on Silver? Showing the Parabolic Morphology of the Silver upmove and his Netlines sell level (Which Silver broke below that very day) in the next post he made on this silver market. This move will be half over before you decide it is going down. Bernanke and Crew has stolen everybody's balls but as I posted in the distant past that is exactly what they intended on doing. Target the Shorts make them hurt when they think they have an incredible success.

    The underlying rationale for so much current trading wisdom these days is the Fed will manhandle the Market up so always default to the Bull side. These is true and POMO gives you direct evidence of that while the S&P chart gives indirect evidence. The Problem is . . . while everyone knows the FED wants Stocks market up for the Wealth Affect for the banks and upper class who own stocks. . . . they just roll that assumption into every market commodities etc. But there is one fact that everyone here is ignoring Gold & Silver in their currency role and inflation harbinger role are the antithesis of the Fed. One of the Fed jobs is to suppress inflation . . we all know it is busting out everywhere but they are nonchalant about it. Nonchalant because they know they can adjust the inflation barometer to their will and that is what is happening now. When you're short Gold or Silver you're not trading against the Fed and member banks you're trading with them!

    The Fed and its' member banks have colluded to suppress Gold and Silver since 1995 in a very real and direct way. So if you're relying on the Bernanke Put in the Gold market or Silver . . . then you've analyzed the situation all wrong. Silver is headed to the 200 day MA and faster than you think. WE rode the escalator up and the now the Elevator is heading down

    All of this being said I took profits today & spread out my option tree by selling out money options against my positions as we reached the 38.2% Fibo and trendline support going all the way back to January. I would love to retrace some of this fall tomorrow but I will use such an opportunity to get purely short again at an appropriate Technical Level. When markets move like Silver is now you get wonderful technical action because there are more participants and higher volume they seem to go to the Fibo's the trendlines, the moving averages and respond to them.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    There is a new post btw…

  • skynard

    Stopped out and waiting to go long;-)

  • I_got_Prechterized

    I'll try to budget it in. I just prepaid for 10 years of EWI subscription.

    j/k of course. I wouldn't take that shit for free.