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Up Up And Away!
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Up Up And Away!

by The MoleJuly 20, 2009

11:22am EDT: Well, so much for Orange – long live Soylent Green!

Something strange happened however – if you compare this chart with yesterday’s you’ll note that the peak (so far) touched exactly one of the projected fibs from the Orange scenario. Maybe it’s just coincidence – or there’s some kind of correlation which I’m missing. I often measure prior waves and project their lengths, which works wonders at times but this time that projection point is the 920 mark and it was another fib – mmmh – I’ll have to think about that a bit more 😉

Anyway, we are now reverting back to VWAP at minimum – so keep your eyes on the 941.5 mark. If we breach that I see 942 or 943 before any further downside.

11:37am EDT: I brazenly just stole this chart from the slope – hehehe:

As papa bear demonstrates – sometimes you have to step waaaay back in order to see the big picture. I think we’ll breach it before all this is over but I also think that the first attempt (this week) will be unsuccessful and that we drop to the downside first. Especially as we are in a highly overbought condition right now. The bulls will have to regroup a bit lower, gather some strength (i.e. lure in more bears), and then bang the tape higher from a new platform.

11:50am EDT: Here is another long term line I’m sure only some of you old timers remember:

In 2008 I coined to be the PPTPL – the Plunge Protection Team Panic Line. Every time we got close to that one some Fed sponsored intervention occurred spiking the tape higher (for a few days). Aaaah…. the old days…. how I mss them…. Since that gap lower in October (Prechter calls it ‘point of recognition’) we have not even come close that one again.

We will at minimum test it and the way things are unfolding right now I’m fairly confident that we’ll breach it eventually and push towards the coveted 10k mark. The Fed’s 2nd stage rocket boosters might even get us higher than that – the upper channel line would be around 10,400. At which point I would drag my wife to the pawn shop for a few extra few bucks to throw at short positions.

3:16pm EDT: Audo Interview with Matt Taibbi on Disciplined Investor. (that host doesn’t know how to shut up, skip into the middle of the clip to catch Matt).

BTW, I’m seeing some very violent moves in the NQ – most definitely some monkey business going on. The sharks have smelled blood and are eager to push this turd above the 956 line.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • salvadorveiga

    Shorted this at SPX 948 pts… seems like a “low” risk trade to me…. if we happen to go higher i'm willing to go until 970.

    I'm risking 1% with a 20'ish point stop away ( yes i am a conservative bitch 😀 )

  • stxinon

    I think RUT is making a huge gramophone…
    starting from 15th june…
    we are at the top of the line…
    time to short with clean and tight stop of 525/527/530…

  • stxinon

    I think RUT is making a huge gramophone…
    starting from 15th june…
    we are at the top of the line…
    time to short with clean and tight stop of 525/527/530…

  • annamall

    Hi sweetie, you sure don't look like a bitch to me!!! LOL

    I think short term we are way overdue for a retracement of some kind, nothing goes up or down in a straight line, but for the next month or so probably 1000 or higher IMHO.

    Good to see you! how's the tan??? hehehehe

  • Keirsten

    Can you post your chart stxinon?

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    Anna, the one thing that I find interesting is that every trader I know is looking for that right now….kinda makes me wonder what is about to happen in the near term.

  • salvadorveiga

    Ehehe 😉

    I'm actually at the swimming pool with the laptop 😀 no beach today for me since I woke up kinda late…

    I agree we're due for a correction this thing is starting to look ridiculously overbought, not that i know we can stay overbought for quite sometime but this thing is “overboughter” than in March ALL TIME FRAMES lol

  • annamall

    I was just looking @ some interesting earning for this week IE:
    TXI
    AAPL
    ISRG
    BA
    SLB
    anyone jumping on any of these?

  • Keirsten

    Scratch my request below STX- I charted it- nice pattern catch. 😉

  • Keirsten

    AAPL has some sneaky resistance @ 156 even FWIW

  • annamall

    :-) Long this morning, now switched to short short term

    It's gorgeous here today, actually only 78 degrees and just the bluest skies!

    Wish I was at pool with you! :-)

  • annamall

    Very true, I was long most of last week.(thank goodness) it's anyone's guess at this point :-)

    I am short SPY's but closed my longs for a nice profit this morning, long EWI 53 puts and short POT, long SNP and K (boring!) hahaha

  • Lordted

    Seems a lot of bears (on this site as well) are getting ready to go long…. – or are long?

    Someone somewhere must have said, “When all the bears go long, that's the top”.. Or was that on this site?

    Roll on the Eclipse

  • annamall

    That's what i am thinking where to buy my bearish position. :-)

  • annamall

    Gosh it feels like consolidation again! hope it's not a sign of a huge up move (ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!)

  • Keirsten

    You see that too? Let's see.. they report post session on Wed. Hmmmmm Ropey may be roping me in. LOL

  • bee01

    I was wondering if my PC froze…zzz.

  • Osso

    watch transports reacting at the 200 d ema. at 3370

  • isaiah64v4

    Earnings

    Monday: Halliburton, Eaton, Boston Scientific, Texas Instruments, Johnson Controls.

    Tuesday: DJIA components Coca-Cola, United Technologies, DuPont, Caterpillar, and Merck. Also, Apple, Advanced Micro Devices, Yahoo, Seagate, Forest Labs, United Health, Schering-Plough, Starbucks, Lockheed Martin, Freeport McMoran, Peabody Energy plus airlines Continental Airlines, UAL, Southwest Air.

    Wednesday: DJIA components Pfizer and Boeing. Also Pepsi, Whirlpool, EBay, Mosaic, Glaxo, Genzyme, Altria, St. Jude Medical, Air Products.

    Thursday: DJIA components AT&T, McDonald's, Microsoft, American Express, and 3M. Also Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ford, Philip Morris, UPS, Union Pacific, Newmont Mining, Diamond Offshore, Wyeth, Celgene, New York Times, Kimberly-Clark, Raytheon, Starwood Hotels, Potash, Amazon.com, Juniper Networks, Broadcom, EMC, Hershey.

    Friday: Black and Decker, Schlumberger, Ashland Oil, Fortune Brands, Ericsson, Ingersoll-Rand.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Ok… I'm almost getting a sell signal on EUR/USD

    1 hr RSI divergence
    2 hr stoch cross (almost)

    Gonna look for 1.4150 or possibly lower to buy

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Some one posted this chart last week, do not remember who — but it is very suggestive, yes?

    http://www.chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=nknk

  • annamall

    LOL I know Bee! it was levitating :-) looks like it might be ready to pop, watch out.
    .

  • annamall

    Very Nice Dreadwin! thank you. :-)

  • Keirsten

    Yep, there's the lid dreadwin. Just found a an old gap resistance back in APR '08 as well.

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Volume dropping off a cliff too. That seems significant.

  • C C Rider

    Anyone think this tape looks bullish? Just checking. ;0

  • Osso

    CIT stopped out 1.299….decent profit.

  • disrespekt

    Sal, I been marveling at the level of o/b-ness for over a week. I've never seen a broad market index achieve these levels. The entire SP500 on 7/15 hit RSIs typical of solar or biotech stocks

  • Keirsten

    Yeah- I need to see it end under that support near the bell, or no dice.

  • Osso

    think so…..seems will keep this way on earnings expectations…..so far they have been well received….Many yet to come…so ..
    Tape is bullish imo.

  • Osso

    HUI HOD

  • LostIllini

    Hey guys what shade of green is the down candle again????

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    SP500 already closed inside of that channel on weekly last week:
    http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/
    1120-1150 wouldn't be unreasonable target TA wise (bias wise this has no business being here).. with another key level at 1015

  • blahblah2

    AMZN…take note. Might be major breakout. Not too far from all-time highs, really.

  • annamall

    yes, that's way I am going to put on my bearish position

    I can't resist trading it. it's too JUICY!!! heheheh

  • C C Rider

    Short SRS for a synthetic long on real estate.

    This from J. Saut at RJ

    Speaking to earnings, while we have been adamant earnings were likely going to look pretty good during the back half of 2009 when compared to the lousy back half of 2008, hereto we have been surprised by the 2Q09 earnings. Indeed, according to our friends at the invaluable Bespoke Investment Group, “This quarter’s ‘beat rate’ is currently 63.4%, which would be 1.4% better that the 62% we saw last quarter. If we’re able to stay above last quarter’s ‘beat rate,’ the market shouldn’t have any problems holding onto its uptrend throughout earnings season.” To which we would add, this recession has been unique in that productivity actually increased. The only way this can happen is if corporations cut costs. The implication is that if demand picks up, the earnings rebound in the back-half of this year could be a lot stronger than most expect. And that, ladies and gentleman, could be the carrot in front of the proverbial horse.

  • molecool

    Oh, I posted that chart in the past – average volume has been melting since late March.

  • Scrillhog

    With all the earnings and GS fake outs, I'm building short positions but staying pretty damn hedged. My line in the sand is a strong close above SPX 950-955.

    In the meantime I'm just scalping…

  • annamall

    Just said below looks like it's consolidating for up move. That was when we were only up 5 poimts on SPX

  • rhae

    SPY 15m needs a bust… http://screencast.com/t/EHO8YaP8Rkp

  • Osso

    HOG….incredible short squeeze eh..!!!!

  • C C Rider

    I was being facetious Anna. BTW, to Moles point, what are you girls wearing today? I'm bored!

  • salvadorveiga

    indeed… I usually apply moving averages on RSI's and my moving averages were at 89 on 1 hour and 2 hour charts !! Not even in March we reached those levels… crazy thing…

    I'm short now but only looking for a few points short term…

  • Keirsten

    Refer to the last post regarding island tops and bottoms. 😉

  • salvadorveiga

    😉 eheh

    Here it's hotter around 100 degrees and blue skies as well…. a very nice summer day

    Once I have my own Florida swimming pool you're more than invited 😀

  • annamall

    I am doing the same :-)

  • Osso

    HW posted on Friday. In 3.50…keeps moving up.

  • annamall

    ROTFLMAO good one sistah! 😀

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Isaiah- I need to see when FDX reports…

  • C C Rider

    Ay, caramba!! I'm sure Sal can trill the R's better than me. LOL!

  • Keirsten

    Check out RIMM on the daily. 20/50 crossover, no resistance 'til 77.17

  • Hao Q.

    actually, i think it's 154-155. take a look at the monthly persons pivot. we might go down from here.

  • Keirsten

    Riccckkkkkky!

  • annamall

    Whoa. jeez look @ TXI before earnings!

  • Keirsten

    I hope it chokes and burns. How's that? LOL I might short RIMM for a scalp… watching…

  • annamall

    Luccccccccccccyyyyyyyyy!! hehehe

  • annamall

    I know me too! hehehe it's getting irritating all this bullishness.

    Need to mix it up a bit. :)

  • Keirsten

    RE: RIMM- “If” AAPL reports an increase in market share RIMM usually suffers. Just thinking about that for now.

  • Scrillhog

    I think our trading styles are somewhat similar K… If you like crossovers and scalp the futes /zc has been an ATM machine most days… I use the 3-5 min charts and EMA's. Very clean action most days.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    The missing link?
    SPX H&S “We knew thee well, wait, is there a pulse” ???

    If nothing but for entertainment, check this death bed Head and shoulders chart, someone has to carry the flag.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/spx-we-

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Sorry – should have specified the timeframe. I meant on the 30 minute.

    I've been trying to puzzle out some additional indicators on the inflection points of your waves. Hasn't come to anything so far, but I'm trying anyway. New information about the behavior of market makers just at opex days (http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/07/options-m…) might change that….

  • Keirsten

    Sounds good Scrill. I'm getting a bit tired of having to scalp, but it's working until further notice. Glad you're doing well too!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    how do you all feel about a nice pullback to the 925 range or so before the move starts?

  • lester

    we have dark green and pale green

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    FXE, there's only a dollar of risk left in shorting FXE at 142–

  • annamall

    thanks will do! yes, competitors (fierce) :)

  • disrespekt

    Here's a look at EPS for the SP500, from S&P…
    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp

    Take a look at the “earnings breakdown” spreadsheet on “click here.” Earnings need to like triple to support current valuations

  • ropey

    yup exactly what rosenberg was saying, problem is the bar is set so low right now by wall st – but people are seeing that revs are not driving this, it's simply cost cutting which doesn't support a longer term upmove..

  • annamall

    :-) that's a deal!

  • ropey

    yup the shorts were >20% going into earnings – jsut goes to show that no matter how shitty a report is ( and HOGs was truly bad ) that there are still people covering/buying up….i don't get it but thankful i'm still not holding the puts! lol

  • disrespekt

    Demand is sure on track to pick right back up, given the massive and growing unemployment!

    The biggest positives right now for the UE rate are BS seasonal adjustments by the BLS and people dropping off the rolls. We continue to shed several hundred thousand jobs per month.

  • annamall

    Question for TOS people, if I change my views in charts to a different box view, I lost my study set? anyway to get it back. Jeez I can't find it :(

  • http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/ StonerRock68

    I've always blown at trading her, but it's getting close for another try short in my pathetic opinion.

    http://tinyurl.com/m4pszo

  • Fujisan

    I'm holding my breath, Roger.

  • lester

    I think it is time to go long on this SPX pullback

  • Fujisan

    If we see a doji today, all we need is one more doji tomorrow for a tri star.

  • Douala

    S&P 500 APPEARS HEADED TO 1000 LEVEL… The market is off to a strong start for the week. As a result, the S&P 500 is retesting its summer high at 956 as shown in Chart 5 (see box). An upside breakout appears likely. That would put the next upside target at its early November peak near 1000. That would also represent a 50% rally from its March low at 666.

    [John Murphy Stockcharts.com]

    http://tinyurl.com/nc6s7d

  • lester

    we really only need 2 or 3 days like we saw last week for this to happen

  • annamall

    Can you elaborate on this (Tri star) Fuji-san please? Arigatou gozaimasu :-)

  • LostIllini

    If you are going to go long please wait until the market burns off some off this overbought condition. I'm not saying go short BTW, just that there are better spots to go long (like say 930)

  • annamall

    it's allot of work and you can't even leave to go to take a shower or else!!

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • annamall

    I agree! Please wait for pullback Lester, don't chase it! :)

  • lester

    I should have clarified that I am just talking long for day trade …

  • Lordted

    Yes. Do stars have to be Red candles to be a top?

  • Keirsten

    Check out the candle on FXI. Can't take credit for that one, someone on SOH saw it first.

  • Keirsten

    A 3 star formation- 3 dojis, the center should be bordered by two gaps on each side.

  • ropey

    which is why it wont ;)….
    the problem is the market is >Seriously< overbought, i would be surprised if they took out 956 and ran it up 20-30 points after last week right away – everyone in the press is now reporting 1000 so guess what..it's probably going to happen when you least expect..
    My take right now is to short the market with a tight stop in case they do push up, small positions there's potential better short and long entries ahead – i think we're going to go down and test 925-930 on the spy first before they take the leg up..

    the complex h&s has been broken only once the head is taken out so it is still in play BUT it looks more like a sideways channel right now – some key indicators are coming upto the 200ma now for their first test since last year….

    If it looks to good to be true it often is, i'm hedged for a big move to long and short side with some powder to take advantage once it's confirmed – not betting the farm on any direction yet as it still isn't clear.

  • Fujisan

    Tri star is a typical reversal pattern consist of 3 dojis. If it gaps down after the formation of tri star, that would be an island reversal.

  • Keirsten

    SPY @ R1

  • annamall

    ok :-)

  • Fujisan

    Looks like an abandoned baby?

  • Macrawn

    We have had some low vol afternoons but right now it is extremely low. Won't take much to tinker with this market right now.

  • Fujisan

    No – it just has to be a doji or similar kind.

  • playtowin

    Fujisan do you mind explaining a tri star and implications?

  • annamall

    :-)

  • Nate

    Up, up and away also describes TLT today . . . that thing has been vertical since about 12:30. Maybe its the big boys pulling out after giving the market one last ramp job :-)

  • http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/ StonerRock68

    Ropey,

    I'm with you. I've always been under the impression that a sustainable uptrend is established from a “base.” The reaction we got off the lows in March and even last week are far from anything resembling a base.

  • annamall

    BTW full disclosure to all that were talking about doing an Apple EP. I couldn't stand it anymore heheheheh

    I did an August 145/140 put spread for 1.20

  • Keirsten

    Yep- will need confirmation on tomorrow's candle to trade it though. Looks like a lovely prospect though. 😉

  • http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/ StonerRock68

    Stupid question…if any of you guys / gals wanted to create a “sector rotation” chart with 6 symbols, what would you use?

  • Macrawn

    They are going to bull this thing up above Jan highs here and get a close above it today. Look at them go to work.

  • Fujisan

    If it closes below 40.76, that would be a good confirmation of failure as well.

  • Keirsten

    I'd just use the ETFs- you'll grab a pretty good snapshot that way of the leaders.

  • Fujisan

    See my comments below.

  • Lordted

    This may be basic for some people but I post it anyway…
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Plug21/folders/

    We had 3 day top on Right shoulder and 3 day bottom early July. So lets hope for a 3 day top.. If not up we go I guess.

    I'm getting Mole's syndrome – I hate gambling.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    OXY, the smart way to trade that, would be to wait for the first down day, and then try to short it at that high. OXY book is only $60–it's at $70

  • playtowin

    Anyone watching US T Bonds? Flying since almost making it to Mole's level last night. Is that a pre-cursor for equities?

  • charles_smith

    Yes this looks like a continuation of Friday's meltup and possible consolidation for a move higher but please consider the call/puts on the DDM (2X Dow long) which is right at $31:
    Aug. calls at $31 (bets mr. mkt will rise): 1537
    Aug. puts: (bets mr.mkt will drop) 98
    Yes this is just one ETF and one option chain but this suggests today is all about sucking in the last Bulls and then executing them with a sharp drop. When there's 15 punters betting on a rise to 1 punter betting on a decline, the market rarely rewards the 15 with big profits and takes the money from the 1. It usually works the other way round.

  • Nate

    TLT potentially extremely bullish . . . signaling a big decline in equities coming?

    http://screencast.com/t/W4xKKTnR

  • Lordted

    Whish I knew what this meant – but it looks good…

  • lester

    I bought some SPY Calls for daytrade. Time to spit or get of the pot.

  • geckoman

    The chart copied from the slope of the dow in my opinion is total crap. Love Tim but we are all guilty sometimes of this sort of thing. It's a fitted trend line nothing else. If ten people attempted to draw that trend line they would all arrive at different end points and most not even close to each other.

  • http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/ StonerRock68

    Thanks Keirsten. I was just trying to figure out the best one's to use.

  • Keirsten

    I used to keep a list, I'll poke around and see if I still have it saved over here and send it to you. 😉

  • Fujisan

    If you also look at the volume and the price action, this is a very bearish pattern (price goes up and the volume dries up) so I'm pretty sure that we are on a right track.

  • Macrawn

    Wow that's where the action was today.

  • Keirsten

    This is what I use to do my trendlines with:
    http://tinyurl.com/m6clo4

  • lester

    Is that K in the picture ?

  • Keirsten

    Anyone watching TLT today?!?

  • GoBruins

    Haha, nice pic Keirsten.

  • C C Rider

    Fully short again.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    LOL

  • playtowin

    What about Fujisans post over the weekend which talked about the SPX August 80 put OI? I thought the implications were bearish.

  • Keirsten

    No, I'm blonde, can't you tell?

  • annamall

    ROTFLMAO heheheheh you missed your calling! Should be @ the Improv! :-)

  • C C Rider

    Nice! Looks like that would fill a few gaps. 😉 It needs an eraser tho!

  • Keirsten

    When that doesn't work, I pull this out instead:
    http://tinyurl.com/2n8mx2

  • Ghostdog

    if it holds here, it should run to 94 at a minimum with a lot more upside depending on other obvious factors

  • Fujisan

    Also, I meant by SPY, not SPX, so if you look at SPY, you see a doji today.

  • annamall

    We seem to be in a fairly tight channel right now. I am watching 95 on SPY, if that breaks out

    But to me now it looks like a bulltrap.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • Keirsten

    Quite impressive- are you long?

  • Tronacate

    I thought RUT grammaphone also…..but the sphincter is definitetly tight rite now

  • isaiah64v4

    I agree… TLT is up… $$$ flowing to safety when stocks are rising[?]. We may close up today and tomorrow gap down and who knows…revist the gap at 910. 😉

  • PRSGuitars

    No dish @ Fuji, but she also had pointed out the 480000+ OI in the Jul QQQQ 40 calls which didn't materialize. Sometimes those OIs are merely hedges or collective BS — especially when the options are super-cheap (.02-.11 or w/e) — and I only say this because the Jul QQQQ 40 calls were discussed with the same tone of writing that these Aug SPY 80 puts are currently and I think it's fair to note, sometimes these things DON'T play out.

    That being said, I loved the weekend post, Fuji (as with all of them), so please don't think i'm being argumentative. And take what I said with a grain of salt — at this point, I'd obviously give more credence to the downside options skew as it seems to be much better at predicting failure than predicting immediate-term gains…

  • annamall

    Nice Isaiah, :-)

  • annamall

    K, check out Apple! and yes TLT says this is a bulltrap (or bullcrap) which ever you prefer

  • disrespekt

    yep…bonds up, equities up, gold up, oil up, what's not up?

  • rhae

    SPY 15m still waiting for a bust, see if anything happens at the green down sloping reaction line… http://screencast.com/t/a3Tn6GiKzGB

  • Hanuman

    For my Rat Sistas and Bros:

    Is VIX signaling a drop in S&P?
    July 20, 2009 Mon 9:42 AM CT

    The VIX continues to confound.

    The VIX is the volatility index of the S&P 500 index options and as such it typically moves inversely. That relationship has broken down to some degree over the last couple of weeks, but it doesn't mean that the VIX is broken.

    Although the VIX measures volatility, it is commonly known as a fear index. For those who attach the latter meaning to it, its current movements might be confusing. But the VIX will most closely track the realized volatility, though it usually does carry a premium.

    So the VIX being up 2.9 percent this morning to 25.04, even with the SPX continuing its rally, can be explained at least in part by the fact that the 20-day historical volatility for the SPX is above 24 percent.

    The VIX futures also help explain the upward pull on the volatility index, with the July VIX futures that settle Wednesday morning trading at 25.35 but August all the way up at 28.95 and September and October futures at 30.

    This is a normal “term structure” when the SPX is trending up, but that premium gap is very large. When we have seen this type of relationship in the past, the SPX dropped sharply shortly thereafter.

    By: Chris.McKhann

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Take a look at real estate (IYR) … up 2.8% ?!

  • annamall

    Bulltrap Lester!

  • annamall

    huh?? :-)

  • lester

    I take it you do not see an end of day rally?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Does anyone care when Phil LeBeau comes on and talks about the car industry? This is usually a good time to run to the bathroom and blow it up, if you know what i mean.

  • annamall

    God is it cocktail time yet, I feel like I have be trading today for 12 hours!! LOL

  • Keirsten

    Nice! Having a hard time staying above that gap fill. Still watching RIMM to see if it'll crack before EOD.

  • http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/ StonerRock68

    This action reminds me of a bad case of “blue balls.” Sheesh!

  • disrespekt

    I am drunk already….no sense in waiting

  • annamall

    You take right, we may see a doji as others have mentioned, but i am hedged either way. I am short the SPY via credit spread.

    If we don't make new highs on the day, I see a late day sell off, now that's just IMHO.

    It's anyone's call at this point, but I am leaning towards net bearish. :-)

  • geckoman

    LOL, that looks like it would provide a smudge factor of =/- 1,000 SP points. It would help make sure the pattern is always on your trend line no matter what.

  • annamall

    ROTFLMAO hahahah you always make me laugh!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    ++++++++ SPX charts ++++++++

    30 minutes selling off TDCountdown sell
    green wave W2 down targets 38% 917 or 62% (ideal) – 902

    Red W3 down target 820 !

    http://screencast.com/t/vTN1PSCkgyy

    10 min – painted down wave W1
    overall – one weird corrective action
    http://screencast.com/t/2KBYbKl3j

    60 min
    W3 down waves targets around 30min targets
    plus completed TDSetup sell
    http://screencast.com/t/KUiZePVus

    Da, except for RSI unable to move above 62 and possible sell setup midweek
    http://screencast.com/t/DlTcyibO

  • C C Rider

    This also could be a breakout from a descending wedge, target implied, 956-869 = 87 + 920+ 1007. Although I've been playing it as an inverse H&S target 1040.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    YOu need to go to this place

    http://www.pinkelephantclub.com/home.html

  • annamall

    Have a nice nap David? Glad your back. I did a bearish trade on apple when it was close to HOD. Our EWZ will come down I command it!!! hehehehe

    thanks for the charts!

  • annamall

    God I love that place, that place looks awesome!! sweet!

  • ropey

    not seeing it CC – daily 5sma has not been touched at all, the only other timethe s&p did this was the violent bounce off the march lows and then it touched itt he following day, we're now on 5 day of not touching so i think a more corrective move is due first before the next wave higher…

  • The Unknown Trader

    My P&L.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    LVS up huge today. Gambling is where it's at I suppose. Too bad I missed that train.

  • ropey

    several techs red ahead of TXN earnings, this is going to be interesting..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    looks liek I have not missed much and saved few nervous system nucleus watching this float

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    You just about gave Jethrine a heart attack. I had my headphones on and that site had blaring music.

    -1 for no warning 😉

  • Ghostdog

    I dont usually trade short term. I picked up some up this morning but want to see what it does when it hits 94. I wont hang here for a long time. Still believe the broad market will rally into the fall after this much overdue retracement starts so I dont see this a long term deal unless the gov gets involved which they certainly could. In short, picked a little and see how it reacts at 94 but wont hang around on weakness

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Brazil????
    this is on 27th street New York, is it??

  • http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/ StonerRock68

    Aggressive breakout trade with a “bullish” base….I can't find many that look like this.

    http://tinyurl.com/ljq7qm

  • molecool

    ————>>>>>>

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Yea on 27th street but they are in other places to. Opening in Chicago,Paris,London, and south beach soon.

  • annamall

    Yea you did! :-)

  • molecool

    When has that ever meant anything? Seriously – this thing is primed right now – if they miss it'll drop like a rock.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Since we are in the bar mood this Jon Bon Jovi's brothers bar that just open.

    http://84park.com/

    Don't worry thers no music lol

  • annamall

    ahhh it says Sao Paola on the site? and it's in spanish?

    God I love it, its on my “to do for sure” List :-)

  • annamall

    Another on my list to do! :-) and J Bon Jovi if I can heheheh

  • annamall

    Yes, I did our Apple put spread at HOD :-)

  • lester

    closed my SPY Calls for 5% gain

  • ropey

    wowza sudden pickup there…SPX now 950…..

  • C C Rider

    Who's your Daddy! Bitches! LOL!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • Keirsten

    Very nice scalp Lester!!!!

  • C C Rider

    Upper limit today is 960 to 965, outside the BB.

  • Tom_27

    Doesn't the last few days look like a blow off move? This usually means a reversal will be fast and furious.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    well, I guess you all saw that, but it reminds me my typical day last 3 days
    http://www.livevideo.com/video/dudewheresmycar/

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    God bless

  • lester

    thanks, it was actaully only 4% after commish, but I will take it

  • TonyMontana

    If you like that place, then you're gonna love this one :)

    http://www.mangostropicalcafe.com/

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Mrs. Smith: ' WHO is your Daddy NOW?”

  • Osso

    closing on 950…???? so quickly..???? man….!!!!

  • annamall

    still can get past and stay above the 950 level (so far) that will be the tell next 45 minutes…

    Apple showing relative weakness now. :-)

  • Lordted

    Crystal clear now Mole… Ta… whish I'd asked earlier!

  • playtowin

    Roubini on CNBC at 4.15 this afternoon.

  • annamall

    ahhh I hate that video, I feel so bad for Mr. Giraffe!!

  • Tom_27

    I know what you mean :-), but this is some crazy stuff. Maybe indeed we are living in historic times. I would expect such moves in individual stocks but not in an index which is supposed to track about 500 stocks. I think Mole might be right when he says that all these buyers will soon be trying to squeeze themselves thorough a single door and will take the whole house down with them.

  • Douala

    Picked up FXP and shorted OIH

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Dalton Russell: Soon I'm gonna be sucking down piña coladas in a hot tub with six girls named Amber and Tiffany.
    Keith Frazier: No, it's more like in the shower with two guys named Jamal and Jesus… and here's the bad news; that thing you're sucking on? It's not a piña colada!

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    I like the analogy though, all the hobby bulls are gambling on a greater fool theory for people to keep buying behind them.

  • Tom_27

    Yeap, actually I have my top at about 971 based on the 1st wave being about 28 points long. This also happens to be a fib confluence spot.

  • disrespekt

    Go business class on delta, it's usually a 767 with 2-class service, EWR or IAH to GRU

  • C C Rider

    Scuse ME! Weren't you the resident bull yesterday! LOL! You might need some of this.

    http://www.prevagen.com/page.aboutus

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Hey-oooooo!

  • bdf72

    what did i do with the John Bon Jovi costume…dang it!
    Loved tampa bay last year and clearwater…like the island outside of tampa bay the best…and the trip out to it with the dolphins following along.
    that area suprised me and saved my butt after I screwed up the kids passports…got to the counter to get check in and passports expired for the kids…note to self kids passports expire in 5 years unlike adults in 10 years…not happy campers canceling trip to St Barts…I'll never hear the end of it.

  • annamall

    I am resident chameleon :-) I sold most longs (not all) this morning can't let that profit go and short term bear for retracement. Don't count me out yet!! LOL

  • Keirsten

    Convenient that they scheduled him after the bell…

  • Hao Q.

    inversed h&s on 5 min. chart. target 956 previous June high…..

  • Lordted

    This thing is going up too steep to be a fake, or double top IMHO… Like I said earlier I hate gambling so am flat right now waiting for a resolve.

  • annamall

    isn't that the truth. can you say http://www.soundboard.com/sb/Chicken_Sounds_clu

  • annamall

    ROTFLMAO that was hysterical!

  • lester

    I may be nuts but back in SPY Calls for day trade. No overnite hold.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    UUP – tomorrow is the day?
    http://screencast.com/t/yILGgxSkonE

  • Tronacate

    So how does a “jobless ” recovery work?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    and of course I did not have any associations with Brazil when I posted it :)

  • The Unknown Trader

    Oh no!

  • annamall

    why in the heck are you giving back your profit Lester??? You did good, why not just hold that for a day?? You may be right, but if your not youre giving back your profit? Just saying…cause I like you!

  • Tronacate

    l FAZ just because.

  • ropey

    MA interesting fade..

  • lester

    the unemployed daytrade stocks and make a killing …

  • lester

    I know and I am watching close as it is not taking off like I thought. I still have cash to go short if today if need be.

  • annamall

    God is our dollar worth anything anymore?? it's heartbreaking! In the end everything is worth less!

  • annamall

    I am loving my apple trade so far! :)

  • thelefteyeguy

    looks like you might be breaking even …if you dont act quick

  • annamall

    hehehe 😉

  • Tronacate

    Maybe a false breakout on the megaphone just like H&S before….doji finish would make for an interesting tomorrow

  • PRSGuitars

    Just make sure you're taking good risk to reward ratios. If you run postive expectancy (more winners than losers; no offense, not what you've shown your track record to be lately), then get cash and run the system as much as you can… if not, then take smart risk/reward so you're letting math work for you.

    IE — I've scalped around too (super short-term 'momentum' trading) and two things are always true — 1) you won't catch enough winners and hold them long enough to offset your losers and 2) you won't be in the trade long enough to catch most of the benefit.

    Look at annamall — she uses good sizing to ensure her stops are wide enough but risk isn't immense, and manages a moderate portfolio of different trades. She can stay in for long enough to earn profit for taking as much risk as she does, however, she's not overexposed or overextended managing too few or too many (respectively) positions.

    If you trade too large, it'll be all scalps as you narrowly gain $ for risking too much and your losers will sting too hard; trading with good R/R and sizing strategy allows for calmer and a wider range of trading, and is more successful in the long run.

    Just some analysis from another nub.

  • Keirsten

    HAHAHA!

  • annamall

    God I loved that movie!!! So hot!!!

  • Tronacate

    MA…..looks like extreme skiing

  • disrespekt

    Ummm…brazilians speak portuguese, hon

  • Tronacate

    nice.

  • disrespekt

    plz plz plz double top then crash…

  • Ghostdog

    Nice Call Anna

  • annamall

    Very nice PRS thank you much! :-)

  • lester

    keep pushing …

  • annamall

    thank you Ghost!

  • annamall

    Ditto! :-)

  • C C Rider

    I thought it was a head and shoulders pattern!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbJQT2eDseA

  • annamall

    get out quick Lester!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    This is grinding up into the close.The famous grind.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Took a small position in SRS calls 20 strike, .SAKHD

  • fa_q

    ES now separating from NQ. Ramp coming perfectly into my window. Will be shorting ES tomorrow.

  • jabber

    Mole,

    I was reading through your sunday's post and one sentence in particular caught my eye-“plus it’s so damn entertaining seeing idiots suffer.” I used to say shit like that in high school and I got weird looks from teachers and students. Well that reminded me to look up a certain German term that a teacher called me once, and lookie what I found, lol. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schadenfreude

    Awesome.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    this reason is as good as any :)
    good luck

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    The intraday waves we are seeing right now are called “Cheat Waves”. Cheat Waves typically occur after several days of clean motive waves; then we start getting choppy triangle waves as if the tape wanted to correct but something, or someone, won't let it so the price continues to climb.

    Elliott first described this phenomenon in a journal entry dated Feb. 12, 1942 in which he wrote:
    “G*ddamn it! What the f*ck is this bullsh*t?!?! I'm going to straight up murder those motherf*ckers at Goldman!”

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com Anonymous

    Spanish ?!!?! Oh no you didn’t… 😛

    That’s portuguese !!! Not spanish… lol … that’s unforgiveable … ehehe

  • lester

    Out for .01 loss per contract. Cut my damn gains in half. At least green for day. Now what do you think about a small SPY Put position for overnight hold (I mean 5% portfolio max)?

  • Hanuman

    People loose job, they get desperate, start day trading (hoping to make a lot of money) following MAD Money, GS crooks come eat new traders' lunch – wipe them out, GS announce big profit – all well – economy looks rosey with the blood of the job less.

    Crooks from Washington declare – recession OVER !

  • C C Rider

    I've got the other side for 100 contracts from 18.7, looking for 13.

  • itsgold

    Sometimes I play 'fading the gap' in the mornings, but these days, it looks like there's another gap in the last half hour of trading that can be faded.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Its a gang bang to the upside..

  • annamall

    If you must do an out of the money (not too far) put say 90, but I would still be careful ok? :-)

  • annamall

    Jeeezzz didn't those use to be FUN??? LOL 😉

  • lester

    well I do not have to do anything and I was looking at 95s

  • annamall

    If TXI come in short watch out below tomorrow. Just saying…..

  • Keirsten

    Sho 'nuff, I remember your call from last week. G/L tomorrow. 😉

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    I'm looking for a short term pullback in IYR, to 32ish, SRS in the range of 19.5. IYR is a long way (~10%) from challenging the June highs. Once I see my target hit, I'll probably join your side!

  • ropey

    I'm hoping this isn't a case of ropey strapped to a table on all fours with a 5-legged raging bull at the other end of the field charging towards me..

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    TXN

  • lester

    they are AH today correct?

  • ropey

    It's TXN…:)

  • annamall

    Well if you did it when 3 minutes ago you are up! :-)

  • annamall

    you mean TXI ?

  • lester

    just a hair, it all comes down to TXN

  • annamall

    thank you!

  • annamall

    yea they (CNBC) make sure Noriel is on @ 4:15 when the ES and SPYS close…

    http://www.soundboard.com/sb/Chicken_Sounds_clu

  • salvadorveiga

    Bulls raping bears ?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ineWGPBMTM

    ^Now let's show these bulls some camaraderie http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8uLbMfxGZs

    we stick together and we'll reap the rewards at the end of the year…

  • nummy

    the ridiculousness continues. wave3 slightly extended past the 423.6% fib (spx 951). next fib is 685.4% (eek!). it'll be interesting to see what happens at 956.

  • faafa

    That's classic!

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    What's your time frame for SRS @ 13?

  • Hao Q.

    i'm eager to see what's gonna happen tmr…

  • Macrawn

    Pump job a success. We'll see if they can keep it pumped up above Jan high the next couple days.

  • C C Rider

    3 weeks

  • Lordted

    There go the shorters!

  • faafa

    Why Stamford CT??
    The two largest building offices there are Citi and UBS and I doubt if those people are in a partying mood given how their 401K/stock options are worth nothing now; unless they're looking to drown their sorrows.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Psychology and technicals together in one post:

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/07/bit-of-every

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Sorry I was so quiet today. Felt very 'in the zone' today so didn't want to interrupt the flow, if you know what I mean.

    See ya'll tomorrow.

  • Tronacate

    Unberieveable…..what happened to the word retracement?

  • lester

    I hate being on the right side of a trade and leaving so much on the table. Sold my SPY Calls Aug 95 Calls for 2.59 after paying 2.60 and they are now 2.72 bid AH. Could have made an extra $500.

  • fademe

    Who else is thinking that this tops out @ 999? A total wild guess with the following going for it:

    1) Traps bulls looking for 1000+
    2) Bears looking for this miss their entry
    3) GS gave a target of 1060
    4) Symmetry :)

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Come on TXN.Come out with your earnings….Geeez

  • lester

    I cannot even get news for TXN on Yahoo Finance. I guess all are clicking at once.

  • Tronacate

    Let's see GE and ETN(with lower guidance)….both puked it up…..people must like companies that actually make something have their profits decline….let's see ETN was -93% yoy. ETN is cutting jobs, travel, mandatory time off without pay, the whole enchilada of cost control. Might eventually sell one of those shiney new jets they bought last year.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • LostIllini

    http://investor.ti.com/financial-releases.cfm

    This would be the first place it would be available i think…

  • lester

    PR release is out. Analyst write-up is not, but trading up now

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net MrTrader

    Hi Fujisan

    I had a question for you – assuming a person has a trading account w/ 12k and wants to establish a short spy position – what would be your preferred method for establishing a short position in the spy where Delta would be as close to -1 as possible?

    1. The simplest way would be to just short say 100 shares of spy and if it’s trading at say 120 at that time, this person could afford to establish a non-margined position of 100 shares.
    2. Use a deep ITM put option with 90+ days till expiration with a Delta very close to -1 which would cost around 2k per contract – this way the trader could afford around 5 contracts and would have the equivalent of a 500 share short position with a 10k account
    3. Use a synthetic short strategy by buying a put and selling a call of the same strike – lets say buy the 120 put and sell the 120 call of a contract with 90+ days to expiration. Assuming this would be either a break even or very small net debit transaction, it appears that this particular trader could open more than 5 of these synthetic short pairs with his 12k account – of course if the market moves against you, this scenario would be much more prone to a margin call

    Given these options, lets say trader x wants to open the equivalent of a -300 share position – if you were trader x, would you go with option 2, 3 or something I have not thought of.

    Thanks in advance

  • Fujisan

    Hello, Mr. Trader,

    Of course I would pick option 2 among them all, but one of the challenges is the open interests are not that great nor is the daily volume so the bid-ask spread is much wider. The chances are, you could the only person trading that particular option and you might like to avoid it if it’s all possible.

    Of course I prefer a spread rather than a single option strategy but I realized not many people are familiar with this so I will leave it there.

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net MrTrader

    Thanks for the reply! I also prefer spreads but the problem in that case is achieving the delta = -1 position. I cant think of any spread strategies which would meet that objective can you?

  • Bankster

    Did you short yet? I still see 970 as potential upside.

  • fa_q

    Oh yeah, right at the bell. 953.

  • Bankster

    Perfect time and price. Wish you told me sooner. Awesome work, mister. Do you still think we go to new lows? Everyone is mad bullish and risk taking is rampant. CIT got $3 billion from bondholders after the Fed passed on a bailout.

  • fa_q

    LOL I've been saying short on the 21st for 2 weeks! I'm out here, I'm leaving for a couple trips. Good luck

  • Bankster

    Did you short yet? I still see 970 to 980 SPX cash as potential upside.

  • fa_q

    Oh yeah, right at the bell. 953.

  • Bankster

    Perfect time and price. Wish you told me sooner. Awesome work, mister. Do you still think we go to new lows? Everyone is mad bullish and risk taking is rampant. CIT got $3 billion from bondholders after the Fed passed on a bailout.

  • fa_q

    LOL I've been saying short on the 21st for 2 weeks! I'm out here, I'm leaving for a couple trips. Good luck