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Updatus Realtimus
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Updatus Realtimus

by ScottMarch 2, 2011

What happened today? What did you expect? A fall into the abyss? Whichever way price goes after a trend day its nearly always LOW PARTICIPATION TAPE.

What happened is neatly summarised by the following 2 charts.

Price attempted to rally. Internals were stronger, but not *strong*. That rally attempt failed at exactly the confluence of resistance between the 60 minute 20 EMA and the daily EMA, which happened to be at the same point.

Bears couldnt drive the price down, and we have triangle action after that, indicating that both sides are beating each other to a standstill. When one side is exhausted price *has* to go in the other direction.

So where are we at today? I know you bears are getting nervous. We have a VERY SIMPLE plan for today. If price breaks that confluence support of yesterday, you want to be out of your shorts. If you are nimble you might want to get long.

Relax, if your stop is hit you still bank a profit, and if you are long when it is hit you should bank from the long side as well.

The dominant thesis of the day is RESISTANCE IS HOLDING. Unless something changes, we have no evidence that bulls can push it up from here. Remember some bullish ammo was exhausted today. Every failed attempt to drive it up strengthens the bearish case.

You should still be short here. Odds still favour lower prices ahead. We have a very clear decision. Out of shorts at the daily high (for a profit) and long if breached. The force of the rally if the daily high is breached will tell us a lot more about the bullish strength.


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Scott
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Thanks for the update.
    not sure if any other rats will actually backtrack to drop comments in here.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Apparently, only wolves and gerbils.