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VIX Buy Triggered
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VIX Buy Triggered

by The MoleJanuary 23, 2018

Just in case the featured clickbait image got you here: A VIX Buy signal probably doesn’t mean what you think it means as it’s actually relative to equities, and thus inverts on the VIX. In other words a VIX Buy signal suggests higher prices in equities and a drop in implied volatility across the board. Be this as it may – one triggered yesterday and one wonders if this market could get any stranger.

And there you have it. One close > the upper Bollinger, one back inside and finally the one yesterday below it which confirms the signal. And all that in a raging bull market and gravity apparently suspended until further notice.

But don’t blame me, I just work here. Which is why my subs and I followed instructions and went long the XIV and short the VXX. My stop on the XIV was below the recent spike low and now advances to break/even. Happy happy joy joy.

Same deal on the VXX just flipped inverse – my stop now drops down to near yesterday’s open where I entered short. We even got a little spike scare higher which ought to help defend this level. No guarantees but in this crazy market being in the plus with stops at break/even is a good way to start your day.

Shameless Plug

By the way, if you missed this or other recent entries then lower your head in shame and then head over to the sign up page to once and for all remedy your unfortunate condition.

There isn’t much going on the roster today regarding new entries but I managed to dig up a goodie for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Lugman

    Right Mole, I understand the dogma of “don’t second guess the rules”, but I believe that in the case of the VIX buy/sell rule, probably an important segment of a rule has been omitted as banal. Which would be that the market has to be down/up in order for the VIX buy/sell to trigger. This has always been so obvious that it hasn’t required stating, as that’s what VIX always does.

    Therefore I am skeptical of the VIX buy signal and chose not to take it. What’s your take on the above?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GE bottom fishers.
    ..toe hold.
    divergence on the weekly.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&p=W&st=2013-01-01&id=p31606987363

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Mary

    If I know Mole he has backtested this and collected the stats to show an edge. Has he published the stats in an earlier post?

  • HD

    $SPX 10 handle rally. See if the Bots show up.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    High yield higher, they turned the printing press back on IMHO.

  • Julie

    GG I posted targets GE 16.70 – 16.40 – 15.97 Yesterday’s low 15.80 with a bullish candle and now a bounce GDX watching level 2 at 23.40 and today’s low 23,39 and a nice bounce, GDX a lower high to short No Cougaritis BAC target 31.25
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Did I mention copper yesterday? mercy.

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=h1

  • Julie

    Yeah You did GG
    JULIE

  • Julie

    BAC mistype 32.25 not 31.25
    JULIE

  • HD

    You question my Bots? They are so consistent though.

    HWB

  • HD
  • HD

    Papa bear Tim Knight blocked me on Twitter. He’s been complaining forever about everything. Guess he doesn’t like any feedback. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    copper down, and GDX refuses to turn red?

    I’m smelling some gold favorability!!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p52933840024

  • Julie

    BTC looks corrective i.e. the charts GG and Mark presented Just saying
    JULIE

  • Edd

    Uh, oh. Take a deep breath Bobby. It`s all in good fun. He is the GOAT. How many rings does Nick have? Go Skins, oh crap, never mind.

  • Ian Naugler

    Wait until lightning network has full release ⚡️⚡️

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    wait? I’ve been waiting so long, I’m nearly dead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrr_zPmEiME

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What are you doing slumming it over there in the first place?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m with Ed – sorry. And have you seen Tom’s wife, Gisela Bündchen?

    https://media.tenor.com/images/70a5576f3fdf22ce65af4ffef5003ef0/tenor.gif

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Now I know why Tim banned you!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Feeling better hon?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I actually thought about that myself but there is also a case to be made about a late stage trending market blowing away the shorts. Problem is that there are probably insufficient stats on all this – I mean how often have we seen a VIX buy signal in an upside ramp??! I don’t remember a single one.

    Either way – so far it seems to be working 😉

  • Tomcat

    Taking a small short on $GC here. Natty looks overdone as well, closing all my OCT18 contracts.

  • Julie

    Hi Tomcat getting ready to short GDX on a a bounce to a lower high
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what happened to “let your winners run”?
    😉
    dam, that *is* a move.
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=d1

  • Julie

    GG Did you see XHB today another bounce exactly off it’s daily 5 ema
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    hehehe

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no I didn’t.
    that daily is tidally locked between the BB’s.
    we should Market it. 😉
    EDIT: Bozeman Bollingers
    beats the Hell out of Crammer.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XHB&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p80069797539

  • Julie

    Yes I am Chief Sharon had some great info and following what she told me Thanks Chief
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    last hour of the day.

    goldie at my line.
    [GLD]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p48995168209

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BobbyLow

    When the Patriots began this season, I thought that after coming back from being behind 28 to 3 in the third quarter to win our 5th Super Bowl against Atlanta, that any victories this year would be icing on the cake. But here we are at the big dance again.

    Brady might wear Uggs but he was able to beat the Jaquars while having 10 fresh stitches in his throwing hand. Fortunately, the Pats do all their talking on the field. I realize that most people want us to lose so it’s us against the world. I’ve learned to embrace the hate. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    LOL. Like I said Edd, most people want to see the Pats to lose. That’s OK.

  • BobbyLow

    I had to leave earlier today but I bought some UGLD before I left. So far so good and it’s going to close near the HOD. I also bought some UCO yesterday afternoon so I’m having a good day today. However, the market jury is still out and I won’t own any gains until they are booked.

  • BobbyLow

    Beautiful trade on Nutty Gas.

  • Yoda

    To me, the short usd trade is starting to get long in the tooth. Same with the long gold trade, at least in the medium-term. Still has little room to run though in the short-term

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Entire nation wants the Eagles to win except the tiny state of MA

  • ridingwaves

    ole bucky demise being cheered by treasury secretary won’t help…..
    inflation is the goal, don’t get in the way of it….
    defeating deflation meme is biggest project of worldwide CB’s since 2009, now that they got a whiff of it, don’t think they are near being done playing that meme….

  • ridingwaves

    1370GC is more important….they could drive it there easily and then we have our which way moment

  • Yoda

    yeah that’s my target for closing the long GC trade

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m really taking it up the ass over here in Europe. And then there’s this today:

    https://www.ft.com/content/6e65f474-00e7-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

    Shit is getting expensive.

  • ridingwaves
  • ridingwaves

    thinking it will be ripe for some shorting though…

  • Yoda

    Don’t worry, shit about to reverse as Gartman just closed his long USD trade XD
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c80e6251e7b542a9334ed86e8c3119b7e97aa646f6b5c1225d4ad87ec472b58b.png

  • Yoda

    Article is gated

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    long in the tooth as in the last 7 weeks?
    or long in the tooth as in the last 13 months?

    88 or BUST
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30310839249

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    I’d say on both. At the risk of being ridiculed, I’d say the weekly chart looks like a impulse wave down that started at the end of 2016, and which looks like is about to complete.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what you said about gold is likely.
    ratio top in 3…2…1..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p52933840024

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    somebody wake up BL.
    he’s got profits to take!!
    😉

    [UGLD]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p68844561953

  • Yoda

    If the overall market starts to turn South hard, I think this should be positive for USD in the S-T as the USD would be in demand during liquidation of positions

  • BobbyLow
  • BobbyLow

    I’m awake Bro. Holy shiny yellow stuff Batman! 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    My nose is getting as good as Captains.
    ..almost.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    DUST,
    counter side, for a hedge
    would 17 be target?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22454422311

  • BobbyLow

    I might take partial profits at some point and let the rest run but not yet. It looked like it was beginning to trend on my 30 Minute when I got in and this time it moved big time. Really didn’t expect it but I’ll take it. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Could be but this stuff is so volatile . . .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    maybe we should consult Captain Boom.
    ;-D

  • BobbyLow

    Dang these things are fugly. (Sorry Mole) I have them running underground in my yard and gave up fighting them a few years ago. They won so we co-exist.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Took my 12 R on /NG and shorted /YM. Watch for a dollar reversal here.

  • BobbyLow

    +12 R, Holy Smoley! Congrats.

  • Yoda

    Congrats!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    so you’ve tried the Rodenator?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDEira01c0Q

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Way to Role Model!

  • BobbyLow

    Not going to like the price at the gas pumps but liking the price of UCO at this moment.

    Not a bad morning for sure.

    Dilly, Dilly. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s been trending..
    [GASO]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GASO&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p66285279213

    The late August high was the Houston Hurricane flooding event.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL I was tempted to try something like that. I was like Bill Murray in Caddyshack and finally gave up.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Left one on the table

  • StockTalker

    Go B&%#$!! Super moon on the 31st!

  • StockTalker

    Short /HG 3.24

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    /NKD leading the way again, think we sell off until fed day.

  • StockTalker

    150 years

  • HD

    $BTC crashes 13,000-10,000, rallied perfect 50% (HWB) and rolled over $500. If you like EW or Fibonacci /BTC is currently the cleanest/ best trading product IMO
    $500 move =$2500 per

  • HD

    $SPX has 2 Fibonacci pivots in play 28(55) and 28(34).
    Carry on.

  • BobbyLow

    Been waiting to jump on RIOT but it’s had very little movement in one direction or the other and has been more or less comatose for the past few days.

  • StockTalker

    Hard move south!

  • HD

    FWIW I can’t quantify the low in BTC yet at $9205. Need more data.

  • HD

    I’m ready to give up on equities. This “Trump” rally started at 1810 1/20/2016 and has now gone 1042 points 36% in 1 wave. Relentless.

  • StockTalker

    /YM 26280 is the mark. Yen is on fire

  • HD

    Just an observation, I’m no economist, the first wave of this bull market the dollar rallied w SPX (72-100) and now this wave from 2016 looks like the dollar is not rallying with SPX (100-89)
    Any thought?

  • StockTalker

    If we see a correction the dollar is a safe place right here.

  • StockTalker

    This is a fed rally, nothing to do with Trump

  • HD

    True. I mean that other dude wast POTUS in 2016 wasn’t he?

  • Mary

    I think it actually started on election night. They was a big selloff in the futures and Maria Bartiromo nonchalantly made the call to buy, possibly picking the bottom within a few points. I thought she was nuts when she did it but I have a new respect for her now.

  • HD

    Interesting. Yes I recall the lock
    Limit down 5% crash. I’m just joking about giving anyone credit. My indicator has this entire move off 1810 as 1 wave. It has not been oversold once.

  • BobbyLow

    Yes and it actually began in March of 2009.

  • StockTalker

    Nobody controls the feds but the feds!

  • StockTalker

    If /YW 26200 does not hold we are going much lower here.

  • BobbyLow

    FWIW, just shorted Oil Services OIH

  • BobbyLow

    In hindsight, there was no place else for institutions to put free money.

  • StockTalker

    Exactly why!

  • StockTalker

    Die you FN pigs! Seeing 26k right quick

  • Mark Shinnick

    Better not be economist;a pseudoscience with truly abysmal track record.
    About all I hazard is a more common viewpoint around here of what is more normal correlation in an exceptionally abnormal environment. We are all relatively made to be a bit uncertian in recency bias that will decimate most without a strong guiding sense of history.

  • StockTalker

    Div on the 5 min /YM, see if it caves.

  • StockTalker

    Long /YM 26130

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    A lot of my trades are counter trend against the Daily because I’m trading a faster chart in order to pick up some interim MOMO. Sometimes I’ll get lucky and catch a major change in trend but most of the time it’s just a relatively short term trade.

    BTW, I don’t use perceived Support and Resistance levels because I suck at it. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    analysis is less than half the battle.
    it’s the discipline that pays off.

  • StockTalker

    Short /YM 26171

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok, I’m off to lunch (it’s quiet around here, so either someone is in shock, or making coin)

    If you have a plan, this chart (HALF DECADE) won’t make you nervous
    [SPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58154449459

    -Cheers!

  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure GG. Another reason that I took this trade initially is that Oil shot up following the 10:30 Report while OIH was going down so that was a “divergence” for me allowing me to short Oil Services and while riding out my long Oil via (UCO).

    In the meantime, I’m currently down about 1/3 R on OIH while being up 2 R on UCO so we’ll see what happens.

  • BobbyLow
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Unfortunately, *this* is exactly the kind of stuff they pull out, after a long decline.

    amateurs pile on after-the-fact. Would a dollar bottom be near to sheer the dollar bears?

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. We’ve been jerked around by these kinds of statements over the years and need to take them all “with a grain of salt”.

    As of this moment, I’m sitting on a combined +5 R on two trades that have been in place for a couple of days. So I think before the COB today I’m going to thank Ms. Market and “Bookem Danno”. Even if these moves have legs, big candle days have a way of retracing. I’ll probably just hold onto my OIH short and reevaluate Oil and Gold tomorrow.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • Yoda

    nice

  • Julie

    Back from dentist BAC the high today 32.21 and I posted a 32,25 target We shall see. XHB now showing pressure. XHB must first have a bearish close beneath it’s daily 5 ema. Yeah INTC watching for a bearish close beneath .44.73
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GG GDX Wow ! Again no cougaritis !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG Check this out a beautiful cougar kitten. Picture taken near Kalispell MT JULIR https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/65fa9833f47be5bb995a0b705969cce44d68642d7d21040071288b19a41811ab.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    holy crap. Momma’s not far away. did the photographer live?
    😉

  • BobbyLow

    My day is done. Thank you Ms. Market. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG You better believe Momma is not too far away. Several years ago we were hiking in the Gallatin Natl Forest . We heard a noise and looked behind us and knelt behind some down timber. Momma cougar was moving her kittens to another den and carrying one in her mouth. She did not see or sense us. She moved three kittens. Also saw a large male on a frozen lake in winter It was unreal GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    No Cougars will take down an elk. The wolf population in S.W. Montana has exploded. The main reason for the decline. Montana now has a wolf hunt. Gonna show you a picture of Hubby. He is one of the top rated bow hunters in the world. A magazine rated him number 2 in the world. Another Montanan is rated number 1 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/61b267632b2aeb01b19da5c043c01746e259f3725bd54998efc3b16070bff33e.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..that would explain the fish.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7Ynxoqo8gw

  • Julie

    The only reason he took the wolf is MT Fish and Game asked him to on a special hunt to thin the wolf population. Otherwise No. He is a respondsible hunter and abides by all rules.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s a little bit too much info, about the spouse.
    some 4chan stalker might figure out who you are.
    you remember stalkers don’t YOU!?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a4924375bd908432931fc843dcfe1021e162cca2386ce14705cdce2570e6d63a.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    say the word, I’ll pull down this thread.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Good eating, too!

  • ridingwaves

    this market is insanely bullish…..
    Busy month for RW, in Orlando today, Atlanta tomm., BL neighborhood on Monday Charlotte….
    and yet still no stops triggered….everywhere I go it feels like hot money is pouring out of people, business and sidewalks

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III