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Wacky Witchy Quadruple Witching
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Wacky Witchy Quadruple Witching

by MoleSeptember 18, 2009

Good morning again all!

Quadruple Witching Day, toil toil, boil  and trouble, Mole, and his evil Gals? :) Expect a whipsaw chopfest exhausting day in the markets. Europe had a triple Witch as well. Historically these days end green, but may just bounce around back and forth basically going nowhere. It will be next week before we see a clearer picture, and some retracement. But to me any significant pullbacks will be met with the bullshitos rushing in to buy.  (by the way I am the witch on the extreme right ;))

The bond market and the equity market can’t both be right, something will have to give!

Also here is 1 year chart on GLD.  I see a bullish triangle that has broken out to the upside quite nicely.


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • gmak

    wow. first one here.
    So, Anna. Do you think EUR is going to break down today. I'm leaning towards stronger initially followed by a sell off (like SPX) into the close. THoughts?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    first is good Gmak! :) Today is so nuts with the OPX all over the place, i can't get a good read on it. I am long EUR from 1.4710 again USDmainly as a day trade, next week I think the USD will bounce back to 77 area. I will do a chart on Monday of $DXY.
    I mentioned yesterday I think we chop around today and end up basically where we started. :))))

  • Bricks
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Whoa! that's scary!

  • cramar

    Since GLD has done a 4th-wave triangle, after the current 5th is completed, we can expect a larger correction down to 850 support again. Perfect longer-term entry. So goes the theory.

  • Douala

    Thought my fellow rats would enjoy this from Bill Cara [a.k.a Trading Wizard]
    http://tinyurl.com/mbly8g
    ~~~~~~~~~~
    CTA trader’s conference call notes:

    Other than maybe the Oracle disappointments (ORCL -2.8% Thurs, -5.9% W/W) and Fedex (FDX -2.2% Thurs, -1.1% W/W), which traders took to heart, no new information was revealed Thursday. But options expiry influences are distorting money flows and price action through the end of the week.

    While prices have remained buoyant and continued to advance this week, clearly a few background caution flags have been raised:

    • Insider sales are dwarfing buys by levels not seen since the 2007 all time highs
    • Corporate buybacks are virtually non-existent
    • Put:call ratios are signaling excessive optimism
    • Bullish consensus numbers are through the roof
    • The rate of ascent of the current rally is unprecedented
    • Leadership is narrowing
    • Money managers want to keep their jobs; pressure to keep up with the averages requires many of them to chase performance

    With respect to the last point, these are interesting times. The expression “What have you done for me lately” comes to mind. But I suggest you don’t play that game.

    On rare occasions, ‘Hail Mary’ passes can pull up numbers, but they are all or none. If they were deliberate, every football play would be — everyone go out for a pass.

    Have a great day.

  • gmak

    What do they say. I can't look at work.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Two more stats on how overbought the market is right now:

    – Bespoke noted that on Thursday, the SPX closed more than 20% above its 200-day SMA for the first time since May 1983. http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/0

    – The SPX closed down last Friday…but futures continue trading for 15 minutes after stock exchanges close. Turns out that the September (U9) contracts for the SP and ES closed up at 4:15PM last Friday, making a 10-day consecutive stretch of higher closes on those contracts that was finally broken yesterday.

    The SP (ES big brother) has traded since 4/21/1982. I do not have enough historical data, but I wonder how often if ever that the SP contract has had a string of 10 higher closes. (Note that the December SP and ES contracts did close slightly down last Friday so no string for them.)

  • ubuntu7

    interesting stats:
    At the high of October 2007, the S&P was 15.5% above the 200-day moving average. Between 2003 and 2007, the maximum dispersion was 12.4%. Today, the S&P is 16.7% above the 200-day moving average.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    don't you read the newspapers and watch msnbc, everything has been fixed!!!1

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Or up to 1200.. could go either way. 😉

  • ubuntu7

    watching that triangle on the S&P 5 to 10 minute, looks like it wants to break out to the upside on the open, what's the measured move out of that?

  • BaldEagle

    Mrs. Smith, is that you? It would be nice if gold went to $850 again.

  • Squidman

    Of the 8 biggest banks in my region, all 8 of them are rated number 1 for risk. That means over 80% of their loans are “non-performing”. LOL.

  • bergs

    Futures are counting pretty clean here It will be interesting to see if this will be all of a third or it morphs to a 1 of three in the black count.
    http://screencast.com/t/N9yQhOpqRhz

  • Keirsten

    Morning Rats! Nice work as always, Anna!

    I'll be watching to see if we merely roll up to kiss the backside of the broken channel line this morning- that would take us to around 107.60 on the SPY. A jump back “into” the channel on good volume, and I'll be re-thinking the drive. I should have mentioned last night- note how the volume has been increasing over the last three days. On this tape, that could mean nothing, but could be something to keep an eye on going forward. We need volume back to move this puppy down.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Well there's that Tom cat! :) that's amazing..so good to see you

  • Nightwind

    If I'm reading EW waves correctly…..W1 is longer than W3 in the run from 9/3. W3 can't be the shortest. Based on my estimate…..spx cannot exceed 1108 ish and still meet EW rules. Am I looking at this right? Thx

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yes, that's me! hehehehe I would go very long there! :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Remember to adjust those trend lines down by 50 to 60 cents, on account of SPY going ex-dividend.

    So we might have already reached 107.60 with the premarket breakout (the one I sold IWM on).

  • ubuntu7

    S&P up 6, SPY down 12 cents, what gives?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    not wasting any time moving into wave V

  • john_matrix

    does anyone else not see the like comments button

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    question, is this v of iii, or iii of v

  • Keirsten

    Good reminder, thanks TME.

  • insite

    WTF is going on? SPY totally dislocated from SPX?!?!?

  • Bankrupt

    I have just one question

    dow 10k today or monday?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    refresh your page :)

  • john_matrix

    Thanks

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I just mentioned that – SPY is trading ex-dividend. So bump SPY's price up by about 55 cents. 😉

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Morning Keirsten! thanks

    your the evil gal in the middle! ;-))))

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    :)))

  • sela84

    model, sej je vseen 😉

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Ok I was going to put this uptop, but who is going to win??? The bond market or the stock market

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folder

  • shortcover

    gonna get me some VXX, SRS, FAZ…wee

  • Nightwind

    I'm guessing min target for dow today is 9905

  • ubuntu7

    that kinda damages the SPY chart usefullness, guess I'll watch the SPX which has broken up out of a triangle.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    $DXY losing steam, and GLD is going higher. I am bullish on Gold. :)

  • Douala

    McHugh's report.
    ~~~~~~
    This week's rally looks to be a good portion of wave c-up of (C ) up. The upper boundary of this Rising Wedge suggests wave (C ) up could top around 1,080 to 1,100 in the S&P 500, to be followed by a wave (D) corrective decline. Wave (E) up of C-up will eventually finish (B) up. There is also the possibility that this pattern will morph into something else, but so far so good for the Rising Bearish Wedge scenario.

    Our next phi mate turn date is approaching, around September 25th +/- a few days, which is also around the fall equinox, and a New Moon, which is often associated with significant trend turns. There is an associated Fibonacci Cluster turn window with several (7) prior tops or bottoms a Fibonacci number of trading days from this window, with many of those prior turns major turns, suggesting this coming late September turn could be meaningful. It is hard to tell at this point whether it will be the top of wave C-up and (B) up, or the top of (C ) up, or whether it will be a bottom, perhaps wave (D) down and mark the kickoff to a final large price move, wave (E) up.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    It looks like some of the SPY dividend capturers dumped their shares in the early premarket. Once that selling pressure subsided the divergence of SPY vs. IWM resolved.

    Be interesting to see if there are any more dividend capturers who hit the sell button now that the NYSE floor is open.

  • Nightwind

    Dow could not exceed 10170 based on above too.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    Hey kids. I took a stab at learning Gann the last few days. If anyone familiar with Gann could take a look at this post and offer comments, I'd appreciate it. thanks.
    http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com/2009/09/w-d

  • Bricks

    Denninger has a pretty good summary of the article if you can get to his
    market-ticker site

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Good for you Jack, I wish I had the time to learn that one, it's on my list. :)

  • ubuntu7

    Up Uranus- t minus 1 hour to the exact new moon opposing Uranus in that planetary clusterfunk:
    http://www.chartometry.com/chart/cluster.png

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Apple so far still nice and juicy! :)))

  • Bankrupt

    my bet is on flea market

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    nasdaq is the weakest

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I mentioned, day before yesterday I think, that another 30 points and elliott himself would get out of his grave and short th s*t out of nasdaq

  • cramar

    I dunno! Covered my short at a slight profit, but it hasn't taken out yesterday's high. If it does, looking to re-short.

  • Trader_Steve

    “FHA is bleeding!” (9:29 AM)

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fha-reserves-t

    Steve

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    “up uranus t minus 1 hour”?

    have you heard something from GS that we should know?

  • Joe8888

    Morning All….

    Wonder why the SPY and the SPX, are off this morning,,,,it's wrong…Hmm

    We are back to 106.80…… SDS SHOULD BE UP…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    With Gold you just never know. So volatile Cramer glad you had a profit! :)

  • BaldEagle

    Nice recovery in the VIX

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    AAPL tight stop short here now http://screencast.com/t/mOOSTZfse

  • Keirsten

    Morning Joe. See below- where Mac reminded us SPY is trading ex-dividend.

  • Trader_Steve

    LOL!

    Steve

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    XHB/XLF rolling over in spite of 18K credit rumor

  • Keirsten

    Depending on where this goes, I expect to see some support on SPY at the 5 EMA- 106.35 currently. From there, who knows. DIA 5 EMA at 97.53. Don't ask me why, but I've been shorting the Dow a lot this week and having a pretty good time of it.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just spoke to him

  • defenderyou

    Well got fearful last night that went into close quite long so decided to dump all longs in frist half hour which I did: fortunately with the exception of PALM lottery trade which cost me .30 on 2k shares, kicked out MTL at 16.45, HIGH at 27.52, IP at 27.13, etc. Unfortuntaley kicked long AAPL out in pre-mkts just above 185 which was DUMB. Made a few grand this morning overall and now I wait and starting working on bear trading strategy. personally, I like to use BGZ levered large cap 3x bear etf

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Anna – you more often right than wrong, but FWIW – careful with longs here
    R/R is no good at this point

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Oy Vah!

  • Hanuman

    Jack,

    I read your analysis in your blog; but couldn't post, as my employer's sytem blocked me from posting !

    Your post is very interesting and generates a quest to learn more about Gann theory and wheel. Long time ago, during my MBA finance, we had brushed upon Gann, but nothing more.

    I would highly appreciate if you can direct me to some sites, where I can learn more about this theory.

    Thanks.

    Hanuman

  • defenderyou

    OOPS HIG not HIGH in prior post and forgot to mention nice trade on HERO at 6.90 which I bought at 6.55 yesterday afternoon; looking to re-enter HERO which is worth a look

  • Joe8888

    So then ..Share holders of SDS ,, should be receiving Dividends shortly right….?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am loving that Big juicy fruit Defender. I think we do get some retracement monday on most stocks 😉

  • defenderyou

    what I dont understand is my screen is mainly red but mkt up??

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Double bottom on 1 minute EUR/USD

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    OPX :)

  • AudioTactics

    Ok, I'm totally confused…

    SPY closed at 107.15 according to my memory at the close yesterday but my market sheet is showing a quote of 106.69 and change on the day of +0.03.

    What the hell is going on?

  • Keirsten

    IWM heading toward lower channel line at about 61, for anyone shorting it.

  • edgetraderplus

    Looking for a change in trend, finally, at least for the short term. http://bit.ly/u01qw
    Volume is a key indicator.

  • humble1 ™

    bob pisanninnini is an imbecile.

  • Keirsten

    True that.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ahhhh nice! :) I am sweetie! thanks

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • defenderyou

    anyone follow analysis on LEHMQ which suggests that after suit against Barclays, shareholder will get 98 cents on common? If anyone interested will find the story and post it

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    that is why he is PissAny

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    heheheh that is for me most likely~!

  • defenderyou

    agreed I heard the same thing you did

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahaha very good Bank! :)

  • Keirsten

    You'll have to check with them, Joe. There's probably mention of it somewhere on Yahoo, I'll bet. If I have time later, I'll poke around too. I remember holding SKF once when XLF did not go ex-dividend, but SKF did.

  • anthem

    I think 1.47 is the resistance point. After it breached last night and came right back up, its tested 1.47 several times in the course of the morning and bounched off of it. . . We'll see if it goes back down below 1.47.

  • PeterK80
  • TheMacroEconomist

    See I did good by unloading it at 62.08 premarket. 😉

  • Joe8888

    quick look at 10 min SPY ,, WE NEED A CLOSE under Double bottom , from yesterdays lows…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    STLD in iii of 1 down

  • colonel_bleep

    Possible head & shoulder pattern on FAZ, resistance 20.50-.55. Just can't seem to break that barrier, tho.

  • http://www.sundayonanism.com biffermas

    Wow, a lower low on the SPY. Is it Christmas in September?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /nq below low range proj and under TOLERANCE!!!!!! YAHOOO!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Adding SPY 107 calls here (for day trade)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    will go under yest low

  • Iguanadon

    Keep in mind to add .53 to SPY due to ex-dividend.

  • defenderyou

    anyone short JOYG

  • anthem

    Going for that Big 'ol V that we've been seeing every time there is a drop, eh ???

    It wouldn't surprise me that we see a big V today either. . . I'm only scalping for today and chasing things up/down as they happen. . . It's going to be choppy and I just hope the chops are nice moves like we've had so far and not too tight to scalp.

  • gmak

    SPX TD range projection is 1056.56 – 1070.13; Both the high and the low have exceeded their tolerance levels meaning that the close is expected to be within the range.

  • TheCrowe

    Alpha,
    Did you see my post on STLD yesterday? It was featured in the Daily Swing Trade newsletter. I'm happy to share a copy, if you want another perspectice (although it's not particularly in depth.) eikstadt ATT umich dotdot edu

    Best,
    Richard

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    Thanks for the look. I have a book on order now. Everything else I know so far is what I learned from reading the one blog in that post. I put a link in there. Once you get to that page, just search “gann” at the top and he has several posts about the topic. I'm really curious to know more.

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    When are they distributing dividends?

  • gmak

    EUR has been taken out to the woodshed and is getting beaten. Usually around now, in terms of price displacement, we would see a big ramp and a push into ES /SPX. Guess it's not to be 'cause max pain is not affected?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    GGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR LOL

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did he mention the fed wave? a correction extension that boosts ABC's beyond the 5 wave impulses?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Anthem good to see you! Yes, that's the only way to really bank coin in this tape

  • Iguanadon

    I just know that they SPY was adjusted by .53 between yesterdays close and this mornings open. Not sure of they why's, wherefore's, etc.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ex dividends

  • PeterK80

    If XLF drops below 15.10… we will fall further. Sitting on support.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    I am sure many people check ZH throughout the day, but if you may have missed it check out Albert Edwards: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards…. I used to get him when I was on the buy side, and always found his analysis good and more often than not… right. Anyway, since its witching day… may be something to read.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    It's a 50-some-odd ex-dividend date today on SPY.

    I got 2 quote services here. My broker knows about the ex-div and is quoting right. But the Pacific Stock Exchange apparently doesn't and is showing SPY down half a percent more than it is. Nutso!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    thanks so much for the offer, but i'll exit the trade today. and wait for the top of the market to re enter

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Hehe…Im doing nothing until next week…this market should go sideways….as expected

  • anthem

    Thats pretty funny. 40 pips on the EUR/USD constitutes being taken out to the woodshed. . . Tells you how badly its been. . .. .

  • Keirsten

    I hate it when they do this. I got crushed last December on a few things when they suddenly sprung it out there. SRS was a mess after that.

  • dollar

    Payment option ARMs are about to explode,” Iowa AG Tom Miller said after yesterday's meeting to discuss mortgage scams. In Arizona, for example, 128,000 of these mortgages will reset over the next year. “It's the other shoe. I can't say it's waiting to drop. It's dropping now.

  • dollar

    Payment option ARMs are about to explode,” Iowa AG Tom Miller said after yesterday's meeting to discuss mortgage scams. In Arizona, for example, 128,000 of these mortgages will reset over the next year. “It's the other shoe. I can't say it's waiting to drop. It's dropping now.

  • dollar

    dd

  • Croozer

    Anyone know why the dollar index isn't showing strength when it appears to be rallying against GBP and the Eur……lost a little bit of ground against the JPY.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Dire! Good to see you here! :) you need a point

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Morning SnP, SMART

  • AudioTactics

    Ok, thanks for the info! 😉

    Looks like the last nights settle changed from 107.16 to 106.65 which would make the dividend 0.51.

  • gmak

    TD Pressure is just indicating a low risk BUY on EUR with stop level at 1.4680
    Note that this is on a 3 min chart. EUR needs to close below 1.4680 and the next bar to open below that for the stop to be valid under this methodology. DavidDT, if I have that wrong, please correct this.

    Cheers.

    ________________________________

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    what is a point? seriously.:)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Thank Gmak, I just picked up another Lot 😉

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    It's someone hitting a “like” of what you said. :)

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Market Makers need to find ways to increase the Open Interest. It seems they were quite worried with this OpEx due to drastic reduction in Open Interest

  • Keirsten

    Good catch, Dollar. I read that too, last night. Turn on the fans…..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    never denied you were one smart cookie :)

  • http://www.sundayonanism.com biffermas

    The Vix is ramping up nicely today. There is a huge open interest at the 25 level expiring today. Currently up 2% to 24.14.

  • Iguanadon

    If someone “likes” your post, you get a point. If you hit “like” for someone else, that's when the likes go up in your profile.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    you too! :)

  • rhae

    SPY daily very close to rolling over, I will feel better when / if the wedge is busted.
    http://screencast.com/t/bH8aoV4t

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Really? hmmmm. good to know.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Really it's priceless if you think about it. The option market makers must've found themselves too long (or not short enough) for delta neutral in S&P/SPY during this OPEX roll week. Now, they could've just sold SPY at 1-cent bid/ask spread on the stock exchange to resolve it.

    Or, they could've dropped their ask price low enough to sell IWM options over $3 at 5-cent spreads to the dividend capture crowd (10-cent spreads for options over $8). Then the dividend capture crowd could immediately exercise the options and sell SPY for them the following morning.

    I knew no options MMs would reply to my post last night, even if they read it – magicians never tell. 😛

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • Joe8888

    UUP (USD) Daily Chart,,,USD-Reversal Pivot on the 17th,September..,,Could be playing out here..

  • john_matrix

    LOL

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    under 1062.74 please?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hey GMAK good call :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Mole's Zero Indicator must've read my posts, it just said indecision lol.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I deleted one for you Dollar :)))

  • Bricks

    Here we go again…nice spike down followed by a long upward move the rest of the day. How many times have we seen this now in the last month…10? 12?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    That was one long green candle remember all today is historically very bullish. Monday we should give it all back if we go up allot today.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey all I will be out for a few hours, eye exam..so Keirsten will hold down the fortress! :))

  • AudioTactics

    I was told by my broker that the dividend was 0.508… cents or so if it helps…

  • Bricks

    Since the ladies are in charge…don't you mean palace? (Just a joke)

  • Iguanadon

    Thanks, I was using someone's number from SoH.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    R2K still lagging though… that's a change. probably will not last now that i have opened my big mouth.

  • Iguanadon

    And XLF/RIFIN are lagging also which I like seeing.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I closed out 1/2 SPY 107's for a tidy profit, I hate to leave that to chance while I am gone :)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    looks to be a wave iv triangle playing out and this move up is the b of c, c of c should end around 1060ish

  • TheMacroEconomist

    The CME comes out with their Market Profile and Initial Balance reports right after 10:30 US Eastern. Showed a value area centered for ES centered on 1065.

  • gmak

    :-) Blind squirrel and all that!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ahhh come on you gave a good call! thanks 😉

  • gmak

    Yah. I think this TD stuff works quite well on currencies. Less room for gaming given the volumes.

  • colonel_bleep

    Another ugly day for Baltic Dry Cape Index. Every day, down,down, down.

    http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahahaha

  • bergs

    taking off for appointments for two hours. This is how I see it so far.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZDoLAaYg

  • defenderyou

    in hero 6.65; stopped out of BGZ at 20.85

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Morning Mac! I wish I didn't have to go, but this is the 3rd time i have scheduled and need to go, it's been 2 and a half years. I will be saing ok doc..can we hurry?? heheheh

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    disqus acting up again – unable to post links

  • Joe8888

    update on 10 min SPY CHART.. WE NEED TO FALL..

    As i am doing this chart,, we are starting to fall…lol

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Some day job stuff fo me now, but before I go this is great. Even NYSE the listing exchange doesn't “know” about SPY trading ex-dividend, see the quote here:

    http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/lcddata.html?t

    Oh yes, it's NASDAQ with the “market for the next 100 years” slogan. :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    tryed to post chart for you 30 min ago – just noticed disqus is not letting links through
    remove space after http
    http ://screencast.com/t/2qPxpdjbOx

  • http://www.sundayonanism.com biffermas

    It seems the “better than expected” mantra hasn't entered the shipping arena.

  • gmak

    If anyone is stil here that is trading EUR, I'm getting a bullish price exhaustion up at 1.4725 (right where the upper bollinger is sitting at present on a 3 min SPOT chart). Just need the current candle (3 min ) to close to confirm.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    What happens if you go back and edit the post, to take out the space?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    hmm.. I will not have time to trade? :)

  • bergs

    After thought.

    subminuette iv could still be in play and wave b is complete. Wave c down in progress.

    Eats time and would be a way to end sucking in all thinking down down.

    then subminuette five up next week??????

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thanks Gmak ! I will put in a limit order before I leave, (which should have been 5 minutes ago) LOL

  • gmak

    Fudgicles. It just got disqualified (the EUR price exhaustion that is). Now I don't know where we are going but it looks like up. heh.

  • dollar

    my trick knee is bothering me….

  • nummy

    TED spread is up about 30% for the week … careful on the long side next week anna.

  • standard_and_poor

    Zero% invested, still waiting for evidence that the short side is the right side.
    Would be great to at least get a wave below 1061.24 otherwise 1075-1085 is next level.

  • ubuntu7

    dollar losing strength, UUP up only .04 now….

  • shortcover

    watch the ETF “SEA” regarding this…it's actually testing highs. A nice 100% move from the lows. I've played it before, doesn't seem to correlate too well to the actual, most likely due to underlying holdings. maybe there is arb play there?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    speaking of defender's JOYG short trade – one professional tape reader he is
    http ://screencast.com/t/ufTDNmGC
    [remove space after http]

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    looks like we've seen the low of the day, until this trendline breaks, we have a small contracting triangle for iv

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • EDC

    serious?
    geee, been forgetting to even look at that…

  • mmTesla

    Good morning!

  • nummy

    yup … keep an eye on it

  • AudioTactics

    Damn, I got messed up by the ex-dividend date adjustment in the price of SPY….

    Missed a sell target and also thought my P/L was 0.51 more positive than it really is.

    Total let down…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    me thinking – new lod

  • innatedc

    Yep this index leads in my opinion…..just a matter of time

  • defenderyou

    I love you too DDT!!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    they cannot hear sounds under water on th ebottom of the CNBC crap sea

  • innatedc

    VWAP holding the mofo underwater…..c'mon bears, drown them…

  • standard_and_poor

    I'm taking a short trade if we break below – 5% of account – with a 1075 stop.

  • Joe8888

    SPX 10 min chart,,,,,we need a lower low,, we have a lower high inn place,,,

  • Scrillhog

    Yawn…. Pulled a Mole and slept in today. Remind me – “I will not trade OPEX, I will not trade OPEX…”

    I'm stayin away for the most part today, except to add to some SPY puts for a 50% short position… Hope to add the rest on Monday. I'm making this a little larger than normal position – close to 30% of my acct. I will however let myself get stopped out if we print a new high on Monday-Tuesday, and will use the remainder of $$ to hedge/ hopefully short w/ ES.

    Methinks today will end as a small green candle.

  • colonel_bleep

    Yes, looks like SEA holdings comprised of some LNG transport, container ship servicers, etc.,whereas I think the BDI is raw material shipping exclusively, with no finished products.

  • Douala

    Joe
    Thanks for taking the time to post your charts.

  • springheel_jack

    Hi alpha,

    I just checked in to mention this as a potential scalp opportunity but I see you beat me to it.

    As ever your chart was nicer than mine. :-)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yeah that trendline has been a steel wall

  • innatedc

    Watching 30 yr futs….another bounce on 50 fib and forming higher lows….but need to see higher highs and break through 121-122 area, then this rally is over….

  • innatedc

    DDT….wasn't that the finishing move of an old wrestler named Jake the Snake Roberts?

  • mrclam

    Thanks Joe,
    Would one way to view this chart be to see this as a triangle? Most triangles tend to resolve to the direction of the prevailing trend right?

  • Keirsten

    Do you want to share an updated chart on your count? I'm getting ready to post a comment cleaner, and would love to include you.

  • Joe8888

    yeah But!!! alot of bullish pattern fail at highs,,,,we have to wait n see…

  • traderblastradius

    I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

    Trader Blastradius

    http://goldstreamcapital.blogspot.com

  • Keirsten

    Nice to have you here, Traderblas. :-)

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hummm w2 don't like triangles

    I think c of c is missing

    this must be b of ABC up started yesterday's afternoon
    still no end to climb action

    IMMO

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    either that or this we've just seen a rare event, a failed FED wave

  • the99th

    When does the MM account guarantee expire? Monday? That´ll be way heavier than the quad witching I suspect.

  • innatedc

    or your count is wrong….

  • AudioTactics

    Today.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    here it is, but we might be at a transition point as the trendline is being breached, the triangle might be morphing into something else

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • Joe8888

    SPX Update..10 min

  • the99th

    Holy shit!

    Well maybe the bulls could get in one last wave V on technical buying before the elites close the reflation trade into a deflation trade. The props that have made this thing possible are being dismantled. I´d love to have the Fed audited and as a consequence trillions in CDS have to be settled.

  • ubuntu7

    or it's the typical fake break and reverse…. daily S&P and 60 minute look to be back testing breakouts… but not breaking below

  • rhae

    David DT 1062.74 would be good…
    I am plotting trendlines using DeMark method. SPX daily still waiting for a good anchor…
    However, SPX 60m tracking well . Just trend lines for now. maybe a Bearish Flip, but I will wait to start counting? A nice thing about the hourly timeframe… I get to stare at that bar for a full hour before I decide how to plot it.. I am not using any auto plot for Demark.. makes me think… which is really hard for me, lol
    http://screencast.com/t/7Qd08psOi

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    of course, but I have a problem right now, I didn't like the first drop sept 17 10:00 (and I sure wasn't liking the extensions of extensions on the last rise).

    Afterwards I see several scenarios, my prefered count is the one where 10:00 was a failled 5 (of something) and 11:30 a clean impulse down

    but opinions and counts… this is mine

  • Douala

    I love it! A true “Meet & Greet”. I tell you, by the time Mole gets back this place will be averaging 5000+ post a day because of you and Anna.

  • Keirsten

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    Clean cups!

  • down_town

    Extreme right? You seem more like a center of the road! Great work!

    Us rats need a few pieces of new cheese once in a while.

  • standard_and_poor

    Haven't seen clean cups in eons.

  • defenderyou

    out of hero at 6.64 – 2 cent loss

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi down_town… I am how'd you know :)))

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    and you Douala! :)

  • defenderyou

    back in hero at 6.64 try again

  • defenderyou

    out 6.73

  • defenderyou

    actually 6.7205 out sorry

  • defenderyou

    in again 6.7

  • AngelinaBellew

    It seems to be a logical assumption that a ‘friend of a friend’ would be a wise choice to consider dating. The same would blind date uncensored apply to a blind date- a ‘friend of a friend’ whom we haven’t met yet through chance.

  • AngelinaBellew

    It seems to be a logical assumption that a ‘friend of a friend’ would be a wise choice to consider dating. The same would blind date uncensored apply to a blind date- a ‘friend of a friend’ whom we haven’t met yet through chance.