Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Wait Your Turn
101

Wait Your Turn

by The MoleJanuary 24, 2017

Do not despair for the Mole is on the case. While many of you equity addicts are impatiently waiting for your turn to commit ritual seppuku I for one have been monitoring crude with increasing interest. Yes – just like equities crude hasn’t gone anywhere fast in the last few weeks but that is pretty much where the resemblance ends.

2017-01-24_crude

Because whereas equities are clearly losing steam and the Dow has been unable to conquer the coveted 20,000 mark it is crude which seems at the cusp of tearing the bears a new orifice. Bold fighting words for sure but as usual I am able to back my lofty claims with juicy charts and entertaining brain farts. That’s a lot more than you get in the financial news these days. And I’m not even kidding, could the quality of news reporting possibly sink any lower at this point? It seems that formerly esteemed pillars of the media have finally abandoned all journalistic integrity and turned themselves into glorified clickbait farms.

But I digress – let’s talk crude. On the weekly panel above (on the left) we are enjoying an ever more compressed 25-week Bollinger and even the 100-week is now joining the action. Most noteworthy are the 100-week SMA which still looms near 56.5 as well as the Net-Line Buy Level at 55.14. On the monthly we have the 25-month SMA near 57 and a NLBL at 57.96. So obviously we’re looking at a very significant bullish inflection point here roughly spanning between 55 and 57. One which when breached should probably put us on an express elevator to 70 and above.

2017-01-24_WTI_PNF

And guess what – the mighty P&F agrees as its bullish price objective currently points at 72 – voilà. Please Donald, tweet something insulting about Saudi Arabia – we’ve got your back!

Get In Line

Of course the big breach may come tomorrow or sometime next month. Fortunately we just rolled into the March contract and that affords us a little less than 30 days until we have to roll our positions forward. I suggest to start accumulating here and to slowly build your position on the way up. It’ll be impossible to time this right – so don’t waste your time waiting for that perfect entry as we’re in the midst of a chop fest. In any case our stop will have to be below the 50 mark for obvious reasons.

2017-01-24_USD_PNF

Somewhat related I talked about the Dollar yesterday and wasn’t kidding about it having to hold the 100 mark. The bearish price objective here is 96.5 and that’s only preliminary. So far I’m not seeing much evidence for a bounce and a slide lower cannot be ruled out.

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Yoda

    Thanks. From the look of it, it has more use for picking bottoms than tops. Still, the boolish scenario doesn’t look good in the medium term from what I read above.

  • Tomcat

    Very interesting post today Mole. Probably the biggest reason why I come here, staying nimble and changing positions swiftly when data/chart dictates. I am referring to the post from yesterday vs today on crude.

  • ridingwaves

    me thinks that VIX long is too crowded of a trade and the big boys are chopping it up

  • Yoda

    I am not usually a crude trader but the above looks indeed like a nice long-term trade, especially given that seasonality is now in favour of bulls:
    http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/futures/FUTURE_CL1.PNG
    So, I will follow you on that trade and start building a small long position from now on.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m seeing divergence in the QQQ’s.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1fa22aeaa72ded8aa35e3daf23b7c475883319931fb7dffa432610a53c209b3.png

    Q: What do Yoda and Fozzy Bear have in common?
    A: Frank Oz.

    Oz is short for Gold, I think I may be onto a conspiracy.
    😉

  • StockTalker

    This sideways tape is killing me, still short /NQ and /CL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    One time, I was so pissed, I straddled a strike price with options.
    and both sides theta burned to the ground.
    A pyric lesson. :-(

  • BobbyLow

    Fucking Options – AKA “Death by a Thousand Cuts”.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m still with you on Crude. Its been fucking around for the past three weeks. Last year there was at least one occasion where it did this same kind of shit for 6 weeks before having an extended monster move. It’s getting close to where I might consider flipping to the long side but it’s just quite not there for me yet.

    What Mole said about Crude is very possible. If I see a little more evidence of the upside looking better than the downside, I’ll certainly flip and follow the money.

    I’m still Short the Russell and this thing has been going nowhere as well. Right now my lens is still favoring the short side but this trade has been a grinder. However, the same thing applies here in that as soon as the evidence favors the upside more than the dowside, I’ll flip and follow the money.

    In some kind of perverse way, even though it can be a grind, I find that trying to find a trend can be a smoother ride than trying to react to the noise of the markets. Another thing that helps me with this process is the realization that I really suck at doing this stuff in any other way. :)

  • StockTalker

    Looks to have run into resistance here.

  • StockTalker

    Good plan BL

  • Ronebadger

    Series of lower highs for the past two weeks

  • StockTalker

    Ya, it popped to blow stops above 2267.5. If it moves higher will flip to long.

  • ridingwaves

    Sugar seems to be at inflection point here, kinda of coiling. Went L with S at 20.20

  • ridingwaves

    did you get an entry

  • ridingwaves

    poor vix longs… The Trump Trap got ya…

  • Tomcat

    Short here with a stop above 2280.

  • Ronebadger

    there WILL be a “Trump Dump” sometime….wait for it….

  • OJuice

    Dang. If you had asked me the odds of a trend day on /ES before the open I would have been way off…

  • StockTalker

    Bulls trying to make a new high, it they fail will be hell to pay.

  • ridingwaves

    2190 is a floor for down moves thru Feb.
    nothing spectacular..I think this May we finally get the sell in May theory back….

  • ridingwaves

    DRYS finally hit pivot at 4.42…..or .55c after split….now trying to put some pain on late to cover shorts.. as stated the move north will be violent…

  • OJuice

    I don’t know about “Hell to Pay”, but, that lower BB on the SPX daily might need a visit before any meaningful new highs. Its at 2246 today.

  • Yoda

    bots are running the show (and stops). No need to overthink it now

  • StockTalker

    Gap at 2235

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners a little while ago. Stops fairly tight.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, there will be….not so sure Trump has so much to do with it though; he’s just a sign of the times, not the times itself.

  • BobbyLow

    Stopped on Short Russell for -.66R Loss

  • StockTalker

    Crude not buying the rally, neither is the Zero

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’d say …if you do a long, find an entry where the long stop can be made pretty tight, yet point the way to a reversal.

  • Yoda

    not yet

  • BobbyLow

    Price action of Crude between now and the close is going to decide whether I stay short or flip.

  • kim

    who doesnt :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    What short crude symbol do you trade?

  • BobbyLow

    I’m trading 2X SCO for Short and 2X UCO for Long

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, same here.

  • kudra

    gold down. GDX up 1%.

  • Tomcat

    My confidence on this short is elevating with every tick higher

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    I think the voters will want Trump to make BHO financially responsible for this.

  • Tomcat

    Lesson number 1: Do NOT pay attention to FOX, CNN, MSNBC and if you must even though you shouldnt, you must watch watch all 3. These networks define the term: alternative facts…

  • kudra

    wow. GDX just went red. swing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    now, let’s not inflame the readers.
    😉

    I do think the penalty of traitors should be reinstated.
    ~80 years is long enough

    http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/journalnow.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/c/0f/c0fab89a-ed3b-5c83-87e6-7b50e38d83a2/50c23169c088d.image.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Plus 1,000!!!!!!!

    Both FOX and MSNBC reside in alternative universes. CNN used to somewhat in the middle but has been going after FOX viewers as of late. So I don’t believe anything that I read or hear from any of them anymore. The real truth is spun to fit either a right wing or left wing agenda. It’s just not trustworthy enough.

    We need to read the Dobelli PDF at least once a week instead.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, first objectives reached, some taken off the table.

  • Tomcat

    I think mole had the perfect phrase for this [which I have been borrowing and given due credit to the author]: attention whoring.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    come to think of it, it’s been a looong time since he used the phrase mental masturbation.
    (pun intended)

  • Ronebadger

    OH BOY, there’s your new SPX high!!! Beat the old high by 0.15 points!!! Whata momentus day! DJIA – Whatch doin’?

  • Tomcat

    My personality is PG13, so attention w…. is as far as I am willing to go 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    A quarter Billion bucks would have gone a long way to – I dunno – fix a highway, build a school here in the U.S., support our troops, etc. etc. But no – let’s send it abroad to a people who regularly chant ‘death to America’.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    bears throwin in the towel, and reloading at a higher level?
    {sigh}

    EDIT: percentage wise, NAZ leads, then S&P, then DOW.
    The Zero’s not buying it?….should be interesting next few days.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    my sentiment, exactly.

    looks like the term has gone out of style.
    and here is the definition. (notice the use of the word country)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fcda4e1f75fccc7786bcd2ab0311b671c3976b3be6aaabf5909f0a3ec0841dfa.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m not touching this one with a ten foot pole.

  • ridingwaves
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I preached of TVIX going under $10, but never thought *this low*

    a bottom-less pit! (I have no position)

  • ridingwaves

    just booked this place for 7 days of RR….
    http://www.cocoviewresort.com/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…this is usually a good sign of capitulation….its got my interest….radar is tracking and looking for a firing solution.

  • ridingwaves

    the trump trap trade….otherwise known as TTT, Triple T etc….

    VIX needs to join older brother VXO in the 10’s before this is done..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, agree that upside is going to lock in a bunch of participants into a cold reality.

  • Tomcat

    My kinda resort.

  • Ronebadger

    SPY volume much less than average…Zero not buying into this

  • Mark Shinnick

    Good deal?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its hardly ever this EZ, but sure Evil to fantasize about firing full short missiles into the heat of someone’s 20k orgasm.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Normally, we should be seeing a somewhat higher level of buying passion…so I imagine this needs a bit more time yet.

  • Ronebadger

    and (pardon my wanking) it’s 5 waves up from yesterday-Noon (sorry, can’t post a 5min or 15min chart)

  • StockTalker

    This is a blow-off added to my position

  • StockTalker

    Believe that shit? Seen it on FB

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes..it is but I believe premature just yet to short.

  • StockTalker

    AH action should tell

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Me too.

  • Darkthirty

    Dead in the middle of the channel – good for a scalp at least

  • BobbyLow

    I’m not crazy about Crude’s price action today but my lens now has the preponderance of evidence very slightly favoring the long side so I’m flipping to UCO at the close. My SCO is going to result in apx. a minor .15R Loss.

    If evidence changes again, I’ll act accordingly but 2017 is off to a rocky start.

  • Yoda

    Your tax dollars at work…

  • BobbyLow

    I suppose a lot depends on what the time frame and risk tolerance is but I need at least some kind of momentum or at least a modicum of evidence pointing toward directional movement in my favor. Without this evidence, I have an extremely difficult time knowing what price to get out of a trade when I’m wrong. For me knowing when to get out of a trade is more important than knowing when to get in one.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, for myself those prices are typically very close…where I’m seeking some sort of inflection point existing or supported in some way within most of the chart time frames where I can determine wrongness ASAP….making stops fairly tight. Also, too, is something of a mindset about wrongness, where at times the best way to be “right”…is to be wrong.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s all over the news: https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=obama%20palestinia

    Why would I doubt the veracity of this?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s why I use several correlated measures – e.g. breadth, VIX:VXV, VXO:VIX, McClellan, etc.

  • Tomcat

    Maybe not a relevant question in this blog, but does anyone have an opinion on Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines executive action that Trump today on the price of oil?

  • BobbyLow

    The fact that this happened is not in dispute. But once again, it’s how something is reported that I question. Right or wrong Obama didn’t write out a check for this. Congress did in the 2015 and 2016 Budget. The fact that a couple members of congress had put a hold on this expense is not binding.

    I’m not saying that sending more money into the armpit of the earth is a good thing because I don’t believe it is. We’ve already thrown away billions of dollars over there.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s probably a good question but one that I don’t know how to answer. I try to stick with price. How long it takes to get oil flowing in this pipeline could be a factor but there are too many “reasons” why this or that could affect supply one way or another. Then come the many opinions out there that can cause even more conflict in the decision making process or worse pick opinions that seem to validate a position.

    By sticking with price and only price it makes things a lot clearer for me. Speaking of which, if price begins to deteriorate again, I’ll flip again and “go with the flow” so to speak. :)

    EDIT: Speaking of “reasons not meaning much” check out this headline. LOL

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-a-republican-border-tax-proposal-could-boost-us-oil-production-and-prices-2017-01-24

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BobbyLow

    My brain doesn’t hurt cause it’s feeling pretty numb about now. :)

  • Yoda

    lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I have seen too many cats get eaten by the big dogs trying to outguess the crude market. Yeah, stick with price – only way to go.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    hope this turd rolls over. I am short since a week ago and in the red. I am an expert at getting in few days to a week earlier on the long and short moves with GLD.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Sold BABA/ BIDU today. Will probably add XBI long in size tomorrow morn and add a bit more NTNX. Otherwise still sitting on longs and my crappy GLD short.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • ridingwaves

    Keystone is a big nothingburger as all that crude will be shipped to China. They are the only folks whom want that low grade junk. Americans will get stuck with the oil spills and about 50 jobs at the port in Texas. Dakota Access is stupid too, when you think that the Bakken field is already peaked in production and whats left.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Miners..
    if you touch the stuff, be on high alert.

    Pricewise, yes, a breakout could be at hand.
    And wouldn’t you know it, this could *also* be the spot for a reverse.
    A fine edge we walk.
    Don’t get spanked, unless you’re into *that*.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2209e435b587f7ac9324dc77b2d85f25d32c68d6c962ce004239da7b159ad257.png

    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a GLD:UUP ratio of 4.55 or greater would be a nice objective signal and possibly a tail wind for a positive expectation.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/adcddb96b5f0a3e6af3cbb4e8e0fb8b33e5c9b97fdd75d953683e30a9d97b4b6.png

  • StockTalker

    Obamma was and has been doing all kinds of shit we never know about. Sending our hard earned money overseas to pay for abortions. WTF

  • Billabong

    This is a trading site and I wouldn’t get wrapped around the axle about stuff that’s designed to get our blood pressure up and we have no control over. Focusing on price action today, it looks like “they” are attempting to break out the Dow 20K hats … looks like my YM short SL will be executed this morning.

  • StockTalker

    Rally will get sold, prepare yourself. Glad that POS is out:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III