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Watch And Wait
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Watch And Wait

by The MoleOctober 15, 2015

Equities are retracing as the sideways volatile range I suspected yesterday is starting to establish itself. I’m not particularly eager to participate here unless we see a bit more context and that won’t be before next week. As of right now I propose a watch and wait approach and to keep your powder dry for hunting season.

2015-10-15_AUDCHF

When the tape is starting to be more dense or is running all over the place I become even more selective with my entry requirements. As of right now I only have one measly chart to share. AUD/CHF which looks like a possible long here if it can hold those hourly NLSLs. However stop runs have been legion lately and therefore I’ve dropped my stop all the way below the spike low on the daily.

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • RoastBeeph

    Lot’s of fed speakers today, could be a very volatile day, though only one during US market hours (at 10:30 AM EST).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I didn’t see that on my event list. Who’s talking today?

  • Billabong

    Dudley – NY FRB

  • RoastBeeph

    See div on ZL ES 5 min.

  • RoastBeeph

    Skynard mentioned that the dotted line in the old mole indicator on ZL (the bottom right window on ZL) tends to lead, showing changes early. Have you guys noticed this too or agree with that statement?

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks. I didn’t realize there was a new post until I refreshed the page. Not much going on anyway. Glad I took profit on the EUR/USD yesterday afternoon as I see that rally died between 3 and 4 AM EDT. Got stopped for a loss on GBP/JPY so another tie on what’s been a journey to nowhere over the past few days. This Chop Fest has made it pretty difficult for me to catch any decent trend on the Forex Front.

    At this time, it appears that hedging my Crude position yesterday on the Hourly was an OK move. The jury is still out on how this will work out in the long run.

  • tradingmom

    Yes. But it can also change quickly. The shape of the bubble conveys a lot of information too. For example, sometimes the dotted white line is pointing down, but the bubble is closing up. That usually terminates the move, unless the bubble re-opens.

  • RoastBeeph

    Awesome, thanks. Yeah, it does seem to slightly lead the market. I will pay attention to the bubble.

  • Round we go

    oil going down. and copper. looks weak.

  • RoastBeeph

    Hey Greenlander, I replied to your post in the earlier thread but will reask in here since this is the current thread.

    You mentioned that you are looking to go long USD possibly. Do you trade USD using a USD etf? If so, what ETF? I’ve been looking for a USD tracking ETF but for some reason can’t seem to locate one.

  • stovis

    UUP

  • RoastBeeph

    Thanks. :)

  • BobbyLow

    If you are going to use UUP you might want to increase your normal size because this thing is a pretty slow mover. For example right now – DX +.40 UUP +.12.

  • Round we go

    you guys see this on slope. genius.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Put a book in your pants now and await the spanking that is coming your way from Scott. My dad would notice a hard shell book but soft cover helps tone it down a bit.

  • Round we go

    maybe this one interest you more.

  • RoastBeeph

    That is a pretty big difference, I’ll keep that in mind. I’ve been trading DX but want to trade dollars in ETF partially.

  • BKXtoZERO

    That is interesting, regardless of where it came from……….

  • Round we go

    isnt that odd all currency look like they are going up.

  • Round we go

    man this much flip flopping skynard must be killing it.

  • BobbyLow

    Skynard is good at what he does.

    But I have to say if a person begins calling for a short or a long for that matter and then price moves a large number of points against the price that was called, then finally begins to move in favor of the original call, does this mean that the person “Nailed the original call”?

  • tradingmom

    No! If you take your entries from a 5 minute chart, you have to take your exits from one too. If you try to time your exits on a higher timeframe, you’re making excuses and letting your losses grow.

  • tradingmom

    I can almost hear the stops popping.

  • tradingmom

    Taking the blue arrow spike high.

  • Billabong

    A better one is FOMC meetings….

  • tradingmom

    hate it when they don’t stick.

  • BobbyLow

    Once again, here’s why it’s not advisable to make Crude Oil Decisions based on EIA Petroleum Status Reports.

    EIA Petroleum Status ReportReleased On 10/15/2015 11:00:00 AM

    Oil stocks rose a sharp 7.6 million barrels in the October 9 week to 468.6 million barrels. A drop in refinery demand for oil together with a rise in oil imports contributed to the build. Refineries operated at only 86.0 percent of capacity in the week which is low for this reading. Gasoline inventories fell 2.6 million barrels and distillate inventories fell 1.5 million in the week. But refineries may have to pick up production based on final demand measures which look strong with gasoline up a year-on-year 3.4 percent and distillates up 5.4 percent. Despite the large headline build for oil, WTI is little changed in initial reaction, holding near $45.75.

  • stovis

    You need to wait until the candle closes.

  • tradingmom

    I know. I just like to be prepared!

  • stovis

    There is a big divergence and a weak signal. Feels to me like options expiration games are being played though.

  • Round we go

    what about all the oil from Russia and Iran that is going to hit the market.

  • Billabong

    MSM talk is cheap until it happens … CAPEX has been decimated and rigs are still dropping like flies.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry for the absence today – had a crappy day.

  • Round we go

    talk, no now there shooting missles and and bombing. t0 clear the way for oil lines.

  • RoastBeeph

    Another arrow, but bar isn’t finished yet. Let’s see if this one sticks. :)

  • BKXtoZERO

    worse than hanging out w/ us? share feelings if you want. We are here for you 😉

  • RoastBeeph

    Aren’t you in Barcelona? How can you have a crappy day in such a nice city?

  • RoastBeeph

    Up against resistance on ES, might drop here (same place as yesterday before we dropped).

  • BobbyLow

    All I’m saying is that all the reports and news about oil doesn’t mean squat as far as trading is concerned.

    Price is the only thing that matters.

  • BobbyLow

    BTW, my longer term crude swing long on the Daily is still above my stop of $46.16. (Just Barely and on full Daily Close) And my shorter term swing Short on my Hourly is just below my stop of $46.41 (Just barely and as of the 2:30 PM Close not including A/H).

    They just don’t make it easy do they? :)

  • mugabe

    no, they don’t!

  • ridingwaves

    pigmen…go figure…

  • Billabong

    I hate those ones that are right on the edge. And then your mind starts playing games…

  • Billabong

    BL tell us about Nigeria a few years ago … it was the end of the world!

  • Billabong

    I’ll be dead by the time those lines are laid if ever… Even in countries like the US, recovery takes forever and security is another issue … best US examples are Detroit and Watts.

  • ridingwaves

    you haven’t been to Oakland-Hayward lately…

  • mugabe

    in my swing trading account, I am now short and long the market in roughly equal measure using the same RBT! total rather than zero hedge

  • ridingwaves

    maybe their is an edge to going long on days with 3 fed speeches :)

  • mugabe

    depends who’s speaking :)

  • RoastBeeph

    Almost seems like an edge. :)

  • ridingwaves

    2 speakers are 1/2 R only

  • mugabe

    gotcha

  • buysidetrader

    zero not confirming market giddyness

  • RoastBeeph

    Yeah, agreed, not really. Looks almost like market manipulation.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL. Yep every week it was one thing or another. If it wasn’t Nigeria it was the ME or threat of a severe Hurricane Season in the year 2020. Or as Rosanne Rosannadanna said “there’s always someting” :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPQFQzSxxR0

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Stop run – probably institutional traders. A bit more fervent than I would have anticipated today but let’s see what happens tomorrow. The Zero signal was a bit meek but consistent after that bear trap down.

    .

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Valencia.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Meh – nobody likes a grumpy Mole.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    crazy… huge move to the upside and zero is still flatlined…..
    any thoughts on what this market is up to Mole?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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