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Watching Paint Dry
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Watching Paint Dry

by The MoleOctober 15, 2013

I need to get my head examined. Here I am bored out of my mind as the tape is pushing sideways and steadfastly refuses to turn those retail part time Cassandras (look it up if you failed Greek mythology) into paper millionaires. Instead I should be sacrificing a free range chicken to the Bernank for somehow allowing us to extend and pretend our way into Christmas and beyond. Yes, this turd will blow up in our faces some day but not today. Which means I won’t be gnawing on my neighbor’s bleached human bones for dinner tonight – life is good and you won’t hear me complain.

Call me a selfish prick but I have given the current train wreck ample consideration. And make no mistake – we are all guilty. If you hear yourself bitching about Congress then ask yourself why we keep voting for the same psychopathic suit-monkeys in every mid term election. If you didn’t vote then you don’t deserve to have an opinion – period. In the meantime the usual suspects are still tossing the hot potato across the room and judging by history they’ll probably settle on some last minute extension which solves nothing but makes everyone miserable for a bit longer. Not that there any good solutions to our current predicament – it’s either the thunder-dome or a few more years of shuffling around the papers. Take your pick.

I hope you paid attention yesterday and didn’t bet the farm on the end of the world as we know it. Technically speaking we are running into weekly resistance right now which sits at ES 1707.5 – nothing of interest we can use on the daily right now. But then there’s this:

Our volume profile chart ran out of juice around the 1705 mark and I think the way up is going to be difficult. Now, you may assume that a congressional last minute deal would propel the spoos up up and beyond. Well, maybe but while I have cautioned the bears I would be prescribe the very same medicine to the bulls here. Remember, what everyone ‘knows’ is not worth knowing.

I have little doubt we see some wild gyrations if/when Congress finally stops screwing around but there are no guarantees that the market will respond wildly to the upside. Once again, stick with the charts. That said – for anyone still long since 1640 (snicker) there’s nothing to be done right now. Just sit and wait and let this kabuki play itself out.

Crude – we’ve got an RTV-L and an IP-L starting tonight after today’s session closes. We also have an IP-S, which is actually my preferred setup – however I would take either side. FYI – on the long side we have a NLBL standing in the way which is going to make things a bit difficult. But not impossible – as a matter of fact I may go in with 1/2R here and then add positions on a breach of the NLBL. Many ways to skin this cat.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Ronebadger

    Paint is drying faster now 😉

  • Skynard

    Ooopppsssy:)

  • bullregard

    /DX/ES/CL tandem… so much for the correlations.

  • SS_JJ

    Hehehe, miners taking off now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You guys must be masochists…

  • AmazingLarry

    Those are some nice whisker hanger tails on /SI weekly over the 20 period. Also some nice bear traps on the daily into the vol hole and back up.

  • AmazingLarry

    Been stalking a few including BVN. Looks like accumulation on the weekly. What’s your flavor, still HL?

  • AmazingLarry

    Not quite. I think “retarded” seems fit. lol…

  • SS_JJ

    mostly yes. Building also a position in GDX.

  • newbfxtrader

    Heh compared to yesterday theres nothing to buy on the zero today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Keeps pointing down since mid session…

  • newbfxtrader

    I keep telling. Just watching the zero is all I need. Clearly gives you a direction when there is one. But I use it to trade the FX side eur/jpy short for example or cad/jpy short.

  • newbfxtrader

    Well brief spike up around 11. But look at the area under the graph. Mostly under zero.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Check out FNV, RGLD, PPP, SLW, also PALL (if support holds)

  • ridingwaves

    I think I cashed out of TVIX at 5 minutes to close and saw both Pelosi and Boehner cashing out right in front of my order..

  • SS_JJ

    thanks

  • newbfxtrader
  • SS_JJ

    that’s what you call a long term perspective 😉

  • newbfxtrader

    Yup. I am in accumulation mode but mostly physical precious metals. Of note tin is breaking out on weekly. Sugar on daily.

  • newbfxtrader
  • AmazingLarry

    Just a tip if you’re in accumulation mode, BVN has retraced 100% of it’s bubble move and is back at 2003 levels and pays a near 5% dividend. Low beta and lower volatility than many others. KRG is in the same category paying 3.5%. Not calling any bottom and a trade is a trade. Just sayin.

  • newbfxtrader

    Thx bro.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Most people disregard Precious Metals as investment.
    Barbaric relic, no dividend and in established downtrend. Silver (which I consider as leading indicator for the sector) is down 50%+. My jeweler friend doesn’t want to talk to me anymore. I wonder why… maybe because he was an enthusiastic buyer of half of mine silver coins at 48? Hey, what are friends for?
    FD: I told him my concerns in spring of 2011; he said I was retarded and he would buy everything I had for sale.

    Fast forward to today

    What is this stubborn retarded masochist seeing in Silver?
    Currently I am operating under assumption that what we have since spring 2013 is a big multi-month base. This latest sell-off since September is not a problem until 19 is lost.

    Following charts are SLV, so price doesn’t match SI, sorry – its a quicky.
    Providing that support holds – next move targets 25 and then low 30’s, which sets-up a much bigger base. Step 2 is too far ahead to speculate, but shows a potential for this trade.

    With this risk to reward – I will take it any day of the week, and twice during this fucking worldwide mess.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nope – didn’t talk about precious metals. I was referring to miners. Double whammy – gold goes down they go down – stocks go down they go down – plus they’re affected by inverse seasons (i.e. S.A. is a big producer). It’s a messy/difficult sector and most folks get burned trading them. Doesn’t keep plenty of zombie retail rats throwing money at them though. Those are the same people who say futures or FX is too risky for them – snort! Sinclair is a piker – he has probably lead more people into financial ruin than Prechter.

  • AmazingLarry

    No prob. I still *think* the HUI will at least attempt to kill every last bull with a move down to the 78.6 which lies at ~164. I consider myself highly patient and the worst timer ever, so the only thing I have is the raw data (ie charts).

  • AmazingLarry

    Jim Sinclair’s mother wears combat boots. The guy is basically an asshole. You’re 100% correct, man.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    She sounds like my kind of woman but yeah – we’re in sync on the goldbug.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Couldn’t agree more about miners and ‘special’ characters populating this sector, with one caveat: these are not the mining companies of yesteryear’s. Alot changed even in comparison to 2010-2011. For starters, look at their profits and dividends. Never mind PE and the rest of it, but last earning season was full of wide-eye surprises.

    I know your opinion of ‘fundies’, but look at this Finviz mix – profits, dividends, low debt, no shorts etc.
    I will let price be an ultimate guide, but I’d say this sector is preloaded for change in sentiment

  • convictscott

    Classic recency bias. Because we have years and years of trending action, both up and down you naturally assume the next move is a powerful trend to the upside.

    The odds now favor years of hard to trade fuck around range trading with false breakout after false breakout in both directions. Sure you are probably right in the end, but good luck holding a position through what is to come.

    Markets don’t work that way. What they give with one hand they try and take with the other.

  • Th3_Acist

    I cannot believe you would say something like this Mole…

    “If you didn’t vote then you don’t deserve to have an opinion – period.”

    It’s the smart people who see the system for what it is who don’t vote, because they realize nothing changes nor will anything ever change by voting. Men are not fit to rule other men…period.

  • convictscott

    Don’t blame me, I’m a non-voting felon!

  • SS_JJ

    Daily USD’s at a juncture and copper showing a nice monthly set-up
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p16168982351

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Yea, its never easy
    Plus, like i said – so far its just an assumption of bottom, until 25 taken and we have higher high.

    No recency bias either. Recent action is strong downtrend since 2011, which makes everybody bearish as fuck. Gold-bugs are gone. Sprott is an idiot, Hussman is a looser etc. Nobody remembers 10 year bull market anymore, including me

    Odds favor that my silver roadmap will be shot to shit, and something else will develop. You see it as some kind of impediment, which is surprising. I can draw a chart with arrows pointing both ways, sure I can…

    Look, I am wrong more than half the time. I put out charts and data and my reasoning. Tomorrow I can change my opinion, but today – this is where I stand, and unless 19 is lost there is nothing for me to do.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    How do you trade Tin?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I vote
    I think – if person doesn’t vote, than that person does not have a right to complain… lol

    1 man = 1 vote, too bad most people are not interested

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    whenever I see a looong justification. I get a little nervous.
    it’s like me, I have to talk it up, perhaps rationalize out those fears.. but I’m in recovery now.

    if Silver turns upward, I’ll let you know.
    sit back, relax, and like honeybadger…don’t give a fuck.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01890305610

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Tesla … presented in response to a previous comment … before and after … it is extremely rare for a movement to happen without one or more of my 12 core setups being present.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    I think if a person votes, they should be held Liable. (for damages)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Dude, I literally have nobody to talk to.
    You people here at ES are like my closest ‘imaginary’ friends. Pretty pathetic, i know.

    Few months ago I decided to stay off not only TV , but also spend no more than 15 minutes a day on the internet, including this site. Sorry, Mole.
    Plus they are giving me hard time at work. Every boss has a bigger, meaner boss, you know. It least I have a window office with plants…lol

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Hold your horses, I voted for the other guy

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    Not pathetic. birds of a feather, ya know.

    you have a window office!? dammmmmmn.
    All I have is this gray cube. plants are forbidden.
    at least they painted the bathrooms canary yellow.
    joy!

  • newbfxtrader

    JJT

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    TSLA used to trade completely different. I was fighting turns in it and watching it intraday for months, then a little above 100 ‘machines’ came in. You can see them working on a live chart. When ‘machines’ come in, stock starts acting like ES. If not for same ticker, I would never guess its the same stock.

    I don’t follow TSLA anymore… funny…now its one of yours.
    Market is so big – there is something for everyone
    Last bastion of Kapitalizm

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Perks of middle-management
    I would rather they pay me more, and take away damn plants with gnats.

    “Canary Yellow”….o, horror

  • newbfxtrader
  • Skynard

    Most PM’s and miners are at the O-shit level right now. That is the area in which fear is my friend. PM’s started a rally and those buyers have capitulated. Additionally, would highly speculate that equities have also capitulated to the upside and is open game. Red futures for tomorrows open:)

  • convictscott

    I’m not saying you are wrong. I’m saying you haven’t properly considered the highest probability outcome.

    The recency bias is your implicit belief we trend one way or the other, based on the recent years of trending all the time. It is exceedingly rare for a trending move up, then a trending move down, then a trending move back up. The only 2 times in living memory I can remember are the move off the 87 lows in equities and the move off the 09 lows in equities.

    The problem is if we are in a long lasting range then we will also take out the 25 and have a higher high, in fact we should rocket up to that.

    Everyone thinks in terms of “its going up OR its going down”. Most of the time it goes up just enough to make you think its starting a new trend, then reverses to make you think a new downtrend is starting, then finds support and makes a higher low to make you think we are bottoming out, etc etc.

    FACT: Markets spend 80% of the time going sideways, and make 80% of the price move in 11% of the time (source: cotton data over 300 years)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I understand
    Valid point

    But how do I hook a trend?
    Unless its an established long-lasting trend (which are rare, i agree), the best time to get in is when its early and not everything aligns one way. Risk is higher, but opportunity costs are lower.

    This is not as efficient approach as yours and Mole’s, and Ivan’s. I don’t have a clear, systematic answer to my question.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nice…

  • Skynard
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb
  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    It does take two to tango … an alternate view … even Volume analysis does not support a working hypothesis of a major low being in place.

    EDIT: The last bar is Period # 3 of a long from the IPm (fourth last bar) … hence any bullish case is now in the make or break timezone.

  • Th3_Acist

    Exactly, and the other guy was a thieving, murdering psychopath…if anything your the one who can’t complain as you voted for your (supposed) lesser evil ( Hint: Still evil! ) It’s hard for me not to laugh when people act like voting is choice…

    So who was the Anti-war candidate? Anti-fed? Pro-Freedom? Anti-State? Pro-Free Market? Oh there I go again wanting choice and change..silly me!

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Perhaps the real underlying issue is the questionable assumption that a ‘democracy’, constitutional or otherwise, actually works … or even is the best formula.

  • Th3_Acist

    “Voting (politically speaking) on its very face is immoral. Men of character cannot argue this, for voting pits one against another; this the desired effect sought by those who seek power. Voting allows for some to determine the fate of others, a fate that can only be accomplished by the use of force. Because of this truth, voting is the destroyer of freedom and liberty, not the protector of it.

    Even in the very best of situations, voting is still an unmitigated failure. The fact that any simple majority of individuals (mob) can determine an outcome that adversely affects the minority (mob rule) is against all natural rights. In the United States today, all who vote harm others so that they might benefit. By voting, they are also sanctioning theft of private property at the point of a gun, and the redistribution of that property to those who did not earn it. In addition, those who vote legitimize all that governments do, including drafting unjust laws, waging aggressive wars against innocents, torture, progressive taxation, indefinite detention, assassination of American citizens, destruction of our money, and massive debt; only to name a few.”

  • Th3_Acist

    That’s where my screen name comes from 😉 Anarcho-Capitalist…down with all Government.

  • Th3_Acist

    Keep it that way! 😉

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Negative on one of mine … merely pointing out what was there to be seen way before it was obvious to all.

  • convictscott

    What stands out is the buying pressure building at the end of the trading range, and after the breakout the IPu is an absolute gimme.

  • convictscott

    Complete crap. Voting does not pit one man against another, it allows all men a say. Voting is not an unmitigated failure, as the evidence is that totalitarian governments have failed throughout history.

  • convictscott

    As a Lithuanian you probably remember how awesome the alternative is 😉

  • convictscott

    In a stock sense there are many ways to do this, although it’s not my game. A good way to look for the winners of the next bull market is to look at how well they held up through recent declines. All of the current market darlings in the tech sector held up better than the competition. This applies on a sector and individual stock basis.

    I suggest reading Mark Minervini’s book and articles. The CANSLIM approach has many devotees, though it never appealed to me.

    The point is not to be right, is to have a *low risk* idea. So the low risk thing is to find a trading range which you think may break out one day. Try and buy at the bottom of the trading range, and bank some profit at the top of the trading range, so you have a low risk idea (ie a reasonable stop loss will give you a breakeven trade)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Latvian, actually … and there are a number of alternatives out there.
    EDIT: Latvian heritage to be accurate.

  • phylum

    That’s why they keep being the biggest buyer of PM’s ….. except you of course:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Okay, all hail king Mole the Terrible!

    My rule will be ruthless but entertaining.

  • convictscott

    My apologies 🙂

  • phylum

    Zzzzzzzzzzzzz……… Nice Eur trade Mole ….tnx

  • phylum

    Graphene?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You’re done with it? I’m holding it a bit further.

  • captainboom

    I’m loath to wade into a political discussion on this fine site, but Gary Johnson was an alternative, though the current political machinery works against his success.

    http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    You are right, and I absolutely agree
    Except one minor point:
    All this is a HUGE democratic improvement in comparison to the country I drew up in!
    You can not even imagine an alternative. No offense, but you don’t have a point of reference, unless you lived in USSR or any (now defunct) socialist countries.
    I am dead serious

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I’ve been watching that sector for few years now. Still too early.
    The science is there, and holds great promise. Companies involved are weak financially, don’t have a visionary leadership as far as I know. Charts look like shit, and they all trade differently – so there is no ‘sector dynamic’.
    In a mean time, Samsung filed thousands patents for different graphene uses and processes.
    Sigh, its like Rare Earths – close, but no sigar

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    When examining any timeframe, it is always beneficial to also examine a much larger timeframe … both to look for setups … and to gain perspective … and hence context … the Hyrid Fractal Chart below is a good example of putting the current myopic view into context.

    This applies to when looking to take a strategic position or a quick day trade.