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We Are In Good Shape
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We Are In Good Shape

by The MoleAugust 18, 2017

I can’t believe it’s Friday already, this year seems to be passing by me like a flash and there never seem to be enough hours in the day. Burning the candle on both ends doesn’t really help matters either as it only leads to less productivity afterward. Perhaps if all that science fiction one day turns into science fact and we get to live another 50 or 100 years then I may just be able to complete all those projects and various studies I constantly seem to be immersed in. But at least years of hard work continues to pay off today. Let’s review where we are:

2017-08-18_spoos_update

Equities pretty much fell off the proverbial plate yesterday, and the daly formation suggests that we may see a bit more follow up during today’s session. I have lowered my trail to near 2440 which locks in about 2R but giving it enough space for a potential continuation lower.

2017-08-18_TF_update

The TF campaign is also in good shape but thus far has been trailing the ES futures. So much for always shorting the weaker index! Perhaps there’s less bearish mojo after several weeks of downside, who knows… I’m trailing a bit closer here as this one looks like it’ll try to bounce from here.

2017-08-18_copper_udpate

We were waiting for a more pronounced drop in copper yesterday and boy did it deliver! I grabbed my planned entry after it had established a pretty massive spike low. Could have gotten in a bit earlier actually but better late than never and I’m happy with this entry. Stop is now at break/even.

2017-08-18_gold_update

Now if you were as sub (if not please proceed here) then you hopefully grabbed some gold yesterday. I planned on being long after 1282.8 but it barely graced it, so after it had produced a spike low I entered long near 1287. Thus far it looks good and my stop here also has been advanced to break/even.

2017-08-18_silver_update

Silver entered just as planned and my stop is now at break/even. That daily panel is looking extremely promising and although we may see a retest of the 100-day SMA I think this one has the potential for an extended run higher.

2017-08-18_EURUSD_update

The EUR/USD is the one laggard right now but as you can imagine I’m not exactly heart broken about that fact. Nothing really to do here right now and my stop remains at ISL.

SPX.XO_stats

Alright as usual I kept the best for last. Remember all those juicy seasonal quant analysis that Volar used to post back in the day? Well, they are coming back courtesy of yours truly who has been working overtime to put together a collection of seasonal charts for you. My decision to delve into python and quantopian is paying off in spates in that regard as large data analysis is a lot easier and quicker to accomplish than with more strongly typed languages like C#. And unless you’re an Excel magician forget doing this in a spreadsheet, you’ll lose whatever hair you may have left.

Still coding this in Python was a bit of work, especially since I’m still earning my pertinent rep. But it’s a great exercise and it gives me the opportunity to do pretty cool dynamic stuff. For example above you see the mean weekly average change in percent for the S&P 500 since March 4th 1957 (when it was officially launched). I plotted the actual percent values right with the bars and what’s even cooler – I highlighted the current week of the year (34) in blue. And what’s even better is that I can do this now for every imaginable stock, futures, forex, or bond symbol – in mere seconds.

I’m actually considering making this a separate product where you may be able to punch in a symbol and then get an extensive seasonal report. What do you guys think? Anyway, I keep plugging on this and moving forward will start posting seasonality updates on a regular basis. Happy?

loki

Skål!

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    That mean average chart is sweet, I’m in if you do make it a produce (t), please don’t call it dragon fruit or something….
    Went long IBB and XBI-retrace complete

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m all for automation Mole. keeps it fresh.

    However, you attendance rate will sky rocket if you just combine babe of the day with a critical or featured chart. {grin}

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e9a2c948245fca1b597cfc15c4459e737d30329422e1c45bd28e677249134942.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Or I just may make it part of the Gold membership – we need a bit more fresh blood here and investors love this kind of stuff.

  • ridingwaves

    did catch my jab at the typo?

  • ridingwaves

    a bit to much of a workout lady for my taste…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    me too, but Captain kicked off with a crossfit sweetheart image.

    got to go with the flow.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, I thought I had already fixed that before! I guess I was getting hungry 😉

  • supervilin

    Volar Reloaded! Loving the seasonality chart. Well done Mole. May I ask what’s your data source to plug it into Python? Most use YahooFinance but I think no futures data on there.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey supervilin – I think I remember you from WAAAAAAAAY back! How have you been?

    I actually wrote a python adaptor to IQFeed which gets me pretty much anything. And it’s very fast, much faster than when i load charts via IQFeed in NinjaTrader. The old Yahoo finance access code broke a few weeks ago but there is a nifty hack. So if I would offer this as a dynamic page then I would probably have to use Yahoo’s data feed (as long as it keeps working). But you’re right, no futures data in that case. I could of course still pull that via IQFeed and post it here for my intrepid subs 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I myself love seeing a fit girl, maybe because I’m a religious fitness freak myself. If it’s too much then it becomes unnatural though, women need a bit of fat tissue in the right places especially if they plan to be mothers. Honestly I don’t know how girls like these do it. I work out five times per week at least two hours and my abs disappear instantly if I as much as look at a fatty steak.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves

    don’t get me wrong, nothing wrong with fit…the girl in pic above is really just not appealing to me and I like dark haired ladies…

    I will have some langosta y arroz con frijoles in PV for ya in PV tomorrow….we canceled the eclipse and are spending 6 days in PV at Westin for 575 with RT non stop flight per person….its like stealing a vacation….very happy we did, see below

    http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/35871206-75/eclipse-related-traffic-piles-up-in-eastern-oregon.html.csp

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ah – here comes the buy back.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How do you ‘cancel’ an eclipse? I thought astronomical phenomena were sort of immutable 😉

  • ridingwaves

    Don Julio Anejo tequila can pretty much cancel anything

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    go go oil..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Julie’s out, so let’s see – how about USO??

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15719503293

    (Support B!tchez)

  • HD

    sorry boss, I was posting on the wrong day. I don’t see the new post until way after the open.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • OJuice

    /CL ripping and a tearing. Looks to be setting up a bullish weekly close which leads into Mole’s post from earlier in the week.

  • ridingwaves

    looks like gold hit some kind of resistance

  • Julie

    GG finishing breakfast in Hood River OR Checking the blog …. Back on the road and will drive straight thru to Bozeman ….. Gonna be a long day ! USO Yes as I went long yesterday as posted. GDX I stated to watch for a rollover 23.46 – 23.40 … Today .23.48 then swoosh ! I hope Mark nailed it BTW You are doing great taking over for me ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • OJuice

    Dang missed that. Was a great sell set-up at 1300 on that reversal.

  • OJuice

    That’s a total eclipse of a different kind. Complete black out.

  • OJuice
  • supervilin

    Sounds like you have a perfect solution with IQFeed! Awesome.
    Yeah been around since 2008… (damn).
    Took few yrs break from trading (never lost interest, but due to work..), now getting back into it. Planning to get into auto-system building, but for now still doing manual. I’m around even if not commenting..
    Keep up the good work!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    check the weekly.
    almost a 3 year level.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Someone’s paying attention! :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Let’s see if you can keep that up!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Always go to the front page first to make sure.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    But boss, we always have ES up, 24/7.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    easy peazy.
    Citrus! girls love to smell all fruity, right?

    https://breenbushdesign.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/70-sint-004.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    I’m pretty much immune to Tequila, us LA folks really helped create Cinco de Mayo by always drinking it in May and the rest of the year… back then it was Cuervo or Montezuma….mean, the new tequilas make it easy, too easy….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I guess everyone checked out early. Have a good weekend guys!

  • Mary

    Still here Mole, enjoying the peace and quiet …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you too Boss.

    don’t forget the solar ellipse Monday.
    😉

  • OJuice

    Stop set on /CL and off to watch the pga event in Greensboro this weekend. Hot and humid as eff.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Watch out in Spain, looks like that country is in the crosshairs right now.

  • ridingwaves

    putting out fires before massive amount of sun, tequila, lobster, fish tacos, juevos rancheros, margaritas and sunglasses so my eyes can wander somewhat….

    cheers and good trading to all….Viva Mexico

  • Ronebadger
  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Hey guys – I’m trying to gauge experience and skill level of this group compared to the wider internet. If some of you could fill out this short “diagnose and prescribe solution to trading problems” I’d really appreciate it. It’s a short quiz.

    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfJXVxq0b93JpqqCGk3ojcpFvO_KZ61UZ13j-guCuCmJg43ig/viewform?usp=sf_link

    p.s. If you guys don’t beat the muppets from facebook we are gonna have words 😉

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    That’s the way I read it too. Should find support, but if it doesn’t more downside becomes a high prob

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Some very very interesting answers from the rats. Thanks to everyone who filled out the survey.

    Some interesting Results which I will post when I collate them. You guys are WAY ahead of the game.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I just took the quiz. Was out of town for the eclipse, and just catching up.