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We Are Tired But The Iron Is Hot
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We Are Tired But The Iron Is Hot

by The MoleSeptember 27, 2016

I am working on some quant related project today and actually wasn’t planning on posting. But the market waits for no man (or woman) and there are setups that simply cannot be ignored. Clearly confusion reigns sky high right now as equity trader have been chased around the block several times and then some over the course of the past weeks.

2016-09-27_spoos_st

So I can appreciate the level of exhaustion that must have spread across the general trading community as as a result. Which makes today’s entry exceedingly difficult to recognize or at least to be taken seriously. However if we cancel out emotions for a moment then we must acknowledge that, technically speaking, this is a great entry opportunity. More and more support is accumulating here and although constant retests do not convey any meaningful bullish sentiment it is becoming clear that we are establishing additional technical context.

Long Opportunity

Given that and the current formation on the short term panel I cannot help but enter long here with an ISL below ES 2130, which is a few ticks below the diagonal shown on the hourly panel. A contributing factor here is the daily NLSL at ES 2129, thus it may be worthwhile to place our ISL below that.

Short Opportunity

Should the daily NLS be broken we would most likely quickly descend to the 100-day SMA. So a short entry right on the spot would be difficult, or at least expensive even if prepared in advance. However a late session bounce higher toward 2140, after a touch of the 100-day SMA at 2117, would most likely represent a small but actionable short opportunity. Suffice to say that the odds would be low but the potential pay off considerable. So I’d call that a text book Hail Mary short entry.

Whatever you do – don’t get caught up in the swings. Keep your position sizing small and your stops where you originally placed them. Stick with your plan. This tape is engineered to wear you out and draw you into making mistakes. Think like a pro – act like a pro.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    here’s to the metal workers.
    watch your hands.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTU0Z-FkhtU

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    I sell stuff like that

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And there goes gold…. yikes.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There goes pretty much everything…

  • ZigZag

    There’s a dedicated server somewhere reading your posts

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Fuckers…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Gold, crude, the emini, the euro – everything must go!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What happened – did Hillary keel over again?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Some like it hot. Hey, I always loved these types of videos…

  • Kidd Cudi

    nah it’s just shares of time on a hadoop cluster

  • captainboom

    For those of you who may be interested, a real money election futures market. I think there’s a $500 investment limit, so you can’t get too carried away.
    https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres16.html

  • ridingwaves

    The peso is better way to play this sham….

  • ridingwaves

    opex shenanigans…

  • Yoda

    nice traps.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Jay Thomas

    We have a forge here at work. So sexy. It is amazing to watch stock pounded down to something 1/16 the original size – the steel becomes so dense.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    amen

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    So many Daily Chuckles to enjoy today. Thanks to all of you. Especially the dedicated server tracking Sr. Mole III trades. Priceless.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m adding to my CEMP on any pullbacks, 23.60 trailing S, I’m L much earlier but feel the breakout of gap and targets noted are imminent above the green line
    https://s11.postimg.org/90dn1ay9v/Cemp_gap_breakout_above_money_line.jpg

  • kudra

    thought you said opex would be good for gold and miners. GDX down 2.3% as it closes in on $26. I exited 96% of my DUST position at the open at a much smaller profit than could have been had. Guess i need to pay less mind to the goldbugs here. still have 250 shares of DUST purchased at $28.68.

  • kudra

    GDX – ouch! Sorry for anyone who grabbed NUGT recently.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…have to respect $ range still holding. Then too the leveraged miners have their own contango oscillations. I was short crude overnight.

  • kudra

    I understand so little of what you type.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Keep at it. Ask questions about anything not understood.

  • ZigZag
  • ridingwaves

    is opex over? You need to learn how to read, did I not say there was a little time yesterday to squeeze…

  • ridingwaves

    I think you understand little period….go back thru posts and look how many times I said this could happen thru opex…
    you should try something else….

  • Yoda

    Having fun yet?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GDX has been in a daily trading range all month.
    NUGT would be a intraday only kind of thing.

    play with fire, you get burned..eventually

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40916981983

  • kudra

    hey, man. all good. i didn’t intend to piss you off. I see GDX held $26 and has recovered almost back to $26.50. My target was $26, but I got gun shy this morning and covered before $26. I do appreciate your input and misunderstood the timing of your opex effect comment/theory.

  • kudra

    I’m not the guy who bought NUGT at $21 on Friday . . .You’re down close to 10% on that one, if you held. If the GDX deflation we saw yesterday and today was something that “could happen thru opex,” then why go long on Friday?

  • OJuice

    Shorting ES here at 2152. On the assumption that the gap above will not fill. Fingers crossed. Stop set.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Odds look not with you on this, even though I see the justification…I’m a bit short myself.

  • kudra

    It was this post from last week that threw me off: “shake out is all it is…..
    the mm’s have a little window before comex opex on Monday to do some more shaking”

    Maybe you meant through opex rather than “before” and Tuesday instead of “Monday:. All good. again sorry if I offended you. I thought challenging each other and examining trades and trading styles was fair game here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? Surviving the swings? 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Totally

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, we’ve been pretty lucky in the past two weeks with our entry. The spoos entry today was spot on and the conservative ISL survived. Gold – yeah, that one got taken to the cleaners. One of 1000 trades.

  • Mark Shinnick

    These seem mostly benign…setting up for something bigger once $ better-resolves …a lot I think depends on the $

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He should be our new mascot :-)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    just chillin. eating a snack.

    EDIT: look at those QQQ’s, 1%!

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/TfToa8Pjweg/maxresdefault.jpg

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BKXtoZERO

    TVIX back .1 below entry, manual stop possible for me today on second half, stopped out of first half last Thursday trying to enter. I wuz up, now I lost it. Donald didn’t smack her hard enough!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    FYI – I won’t be posting ahead of all these events tomorrow – chances are we’ll be jumping all over the place.

    . https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/381ef55b7e54f3a9ccde663ff78822c163e76b07127b8f7a2e4da9b059a36133.png

  • OJuice

    A bots wet dream.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Trading v light w indexes (sold QQQ picked up yesterday at close) and doing hit and runs as it’s just a lot of noise right now. Mainly trading IPO’s and grabbed 4R on LN https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/07d316b253f8710a500bec04eb006957371191b625f316dfe6e97de1d12ea208.png

    and currently down to 1/2 position which is up 5R on TWLO. eying other new ones for consolidation then I hop on.

    Also have a position in WFC from a few days ago and short GLD

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    First strike – EUR jumped up a bit. Glad I visited the ATM earlier this morning :-)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • AcoBrasil

    Still riding FSLR. Nice breakout underway with plenty of room to ride.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Shorting miners.

  • Mark Shinnick

    He needs to borrow more from what Reagan did to undermine the big government arguments.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You are obsessed!!! LOL

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Moderate chance of an UP day. Let’s see…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    while we’re waiting….

    Be quick, or be dead
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyuIAUlL5IU

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    When he’s not busy dissing cobras he’s freelancing at the HFT desk at Renaissance Tech.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03202ea0575047808aa2e6e01aaf1e79a848dd6ad915bfd86748c196340858b5.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Just have go with the flows you know.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Weekly pullback to support in my lens.
    RSI also above 50.
    You may grow impatient. If it works, great reward is in your fortune cookie.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96385269612

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Alright, feeding the beast as you’ve been a solid contributor… See below – long term I think you’re a bit early. Unfortunately since it’s an ETF I’m not getting much short term. It’s also in HV mode right now so be careful.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c2704d7852b64bcb2a9c0e9db407553bd37bb8a240351869cd13ec330d252351.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Forgot to say – wake me up when it touches 27 and change please.

  • kudra

    thanks for weighing in on GDX.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You bet.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This usually isn’t a high probability trade, but stop is super tight and if $ strengthens it could be good.

  • kudra

    nice one. scalp it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Here’s the thing; its close to important resistance. Given $ strength will blow through it. Just have to see what happens, keep raising the stop too.

  • kudra

    looks like $26 is going to hold. cut and run.

  • kudra

    spoke too soon. there goes $26. nice job, Shin. Stocks tanking.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Backed-off for the time being.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, so re-entered on that pullback…see what happens..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah..definite ballpark I’d imagine around 26.5 is the early bird alarm.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Mole, did you start using a different font in your posts? Its hard to read because I see a combo of bold and non-bold characters throughout.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Backed-off again….gotta go eat.

  • Yoda

    The tape is like a f. minefield.

  • Mark Shinnick

    The instrument I usually trade to short is jdst…its just the nature of the 2x playing field.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? Hanging in there? 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Uuuhhh – can you post a screenshot please?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mongoose tape.

  • OJuice

    Irritated with the churn…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…we know this often happens near some sort of inflection. 26.3 might even be interesting.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Taking an intraday shot at long TVIX from same 17.9 area as half position I am holding, stop 17.75

  • OJuice

    Wow. She’s looks as useless as the Wells CEO. The incompetence under scrutiny is astounding.

  • Ronebadger

    SHE DIDN’T ANSWER A SINGLE QUESTION. Is she a lawyer as well?

  • Yoda

    same here

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…coiled nicely but I’d say play it a bit closer.

  • Yoda

    I am surprised she didn’t plead the fifth.

  • Yoda

    priceless

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • OJuice

    Alright that’s enough torture for me. Closing my position and hanging up the gloves for this week. Two more days in the month. Surely it will end off right where it started. Good luck team. See you next week.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long jnug

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    just went long GLD myself. only for few days to a week max tho

  • kudra

    dam, GDX. rockin and rollin toward$27 after a dip below $26. volatile. Riding waves called this correct. glad I unloaded DUST yesterday with his prognostication in the back of my mind. I owe you a beer.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exited…see what happens. Rockin nice trade.

  • randomuser6789

    Wow. Look at CL!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long jdst. Really little hope for this one but $ still hanging in there.

  • kudra

    shorted GDX above $27 (DUST at 31.77). quick scalp. great action today.

  • BKXtoZERO

    oot

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exited.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Crude is up – Saudis are down. A good day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s a start.
    [USO]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p05837927856

    EDIT: let’s see some follow-thru!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    She has never answered one single question that was submitted since she appeared in the limelight. One of the reasons they picked her.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This is not incompetence, OJ. It’s willful – we are being played.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Nice scalp was a pretty good spike

  • Mark Shinnick

    Recusal is the only sensible solution for a institution billing itself as a-political. What fools everyone is being taken for – should shut them down immediately.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    in the meantime, High Yield – new highs.

    RISK ON

    [HYG]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15586269578

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    blood out of a turnip. at least you’re running disciplined.
    😉
    looks like the 50 level held.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10981039522

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    ugh cant post it for some reason, keeps saying “Unfortunately your image upload failed. Please verify that your image is in a supported format (JPEG, PNG, or GIF) and under 5MB. If you continue seeing this error, please try again later.”. Tried jpg, bmp, png, and all under 5 MB. I’ll see how it looks on my other PC’s browser.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Mole, are you referring to the TICK alerts? curious to what your methodology is

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    See my next post.