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Wednesday Morning Briefing
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Wednesday Morning Briefing

by The MoleFebruary 20, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The E-Mini is kissing its 25-hour this morning which is now steeply rising. A decision here will be forthcoming shortly – be there or be square :-)

Crude has been doing a few quick drops into its 100-hour where apparently a buyer lurks. Maybe we missed it but if it happens again I plan to be long here.

But once again most of the fun is on the FX side – here’s the EUR/USD near its 100-hour where I would expect some buying interest to materialize.

Quite a bit more below for my intrepid subs – please step into my lair:
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More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Let’s do it backwards today – USD/HKD – a first here on Evil Speculator. Nice diagonal and if it slips below both SMAs I’ll be short.

NZD/JPY at an hourly NLBL – this one is good for another three hours.

GBP/NZD back at both SMAs which are pretty entangled. It’s looking weak and I’ll be short here until it crawls back above 1.83.

EUR/JPY – I’m seeing some sort of diagonal near its 100-hour SMA, maybe good for additional support.

EUR/CAD – do I have to explain this one? 😉

CHF/JPY – pretty established support pattern – use it as your binary launch point.

CAD/CHF – also making its first appearance here. Basically the inverse of the EUR/CAD :-)

AUD/CAD – possible short near that 25-hour but there’s also a diagonal resistance line hovering above.

Have fun but keep it frosty.

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • RacerXX

    you going reverse cowgirl on us Mole?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry – that one is lost on me… 

  • RacerXX

    you said you were going to do things backwards today.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Tks mole, been long euro at 1.3370 as well. Took half profits off at 95. Zerofx is not confirming participation so far though…

  • bdoone

    CPCE dropped again yest. to .58…keeping an eye on that chart.

  • Skynard

    /NG fell off at market open:)

  • Skynard

    Hehe, still running full short the /ES

  • bullregard

    Thirtieth time a charm :)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    I actually brought that dip on ES. God bless…

  • Pervergence

    sGC……the gift that keeps giving……..sES 1527

  • Skynard

    Hehe, maybe it will work this time:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ugh, too early for DeMarkian.

  • Pervergence

    missed on 6A……dammit……was looking to short that puppy last night…….grrrrrrr

  • Pervergence

    SI and GC falling off the cliff…….now maybe we get that panic

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Lol… are we at capitulation point for gold already? 1580 sounds like a good number a tiny position. I think I will try 0.1 lot  😉

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Will be covering final half of silver short somewhere between here and 27.50 (SLV)

  • Pervergence

    Kinda wondering myself where to pull the plug………P&F target is unbelievable

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    don’t think so, tomorrow would be nice.  Maybe month end.
    my 200 bollinger says 148 limit down.  it has performed well in other
    parts of the chart..but who knows!?

    http://s7.postimage.org/8w4mu9jvf/golden.png
    -Gerb

  • Pervergence

    how does SLV price and futures compare?

  • ridingwaves

    opex on metals next monday..maybe best to hold off while they shake the rest of the trees..they just took it below 61% and might be heading to 78%fib from august move…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    OpeX again?  dang – wasn’t that just two weeks ago?
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    march 13 options..

  • Skynard

    Was it 26.5?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    thanks.
    I lightened up on DUST yesterday.
    a stop is a stop.

    I’ll be damned if I let the rest go too soon.
    must sit – on – hands.

  • Pervergence
  • Skynard

    Whoa!

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     SLV is about $1 less.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    correct.
    hey, let’s not forget P&F are timeless charts.
    so that 22 may not be hit till later this year, or next.

    (somehow, they always work out for Mole though)

  • ridingwaves

    rumors of commodity fund going under now floating thru blogsphere…just what the cartel wants…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yep.  
    if someone bought in Aug, and held, they are sweating bullets & ‘hoping’.
    if someone shorted in Aug, they are waiting to flip the trade.

  • bullregard

    G Bonds on the move up… CL GC SI seem to catch a bid now, at 3m volume holes. Time for the ES pig to dive?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    What this world has come to?
    7points down, not even 1mil volume on ES, Nazdaq A/D -500
    Excitement?
    We used to do it in 1hour

  • Skynard

    Taking profit /ES, div in play:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    this isn’t your daddy’s Market.
    but yes, the air does seem a bit thin recently.

    http://www.mount-everest.net/images/mt-everest-peak.jpg

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Just saw a news flash for the gold ‘death cross’
    50/200 and looking at twitter feeds; drama is rising

  • Pervergence

    That strong lower left panel signal is making me feel greedy….:)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Tough to build on any position today. Following zero (though very accurate) is not easy at all for today’s work 😉 I went long, short, long, short, now long, going to clear off soon.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Time to buy some physical, eh?

  • Pervergence

    Closed ES short also…….followed skys lead

    still s GC and SI……only positions.

  • Skynard

    Re-shorting, hourly is convincing me to:)

  • BobbyLow

    I’m LMAO at Oil.  So now there’s a “Rumor” that some “Unknown” Commodity fund is in trouble?  Cut the Shit!

    I suppose we can give all kinds of other technical/fundamental and exciting reasons for the price drop in oil today as well.

    But how about this one.  The “Market” (Playa’s) have driven the price of oil up to the point where the public and politicians are crying uncle.  So now some “reason” has to be given for a “correction”.   This is all happening while the American Public is being prepped for a permanent +$4.00 Gallon Gasoline handle.  We have Crude Oil coming out our ass while we continue to import less and less each year.  Then the Oil Companies Refine less to maintain a high price at the pump.    But of course the “Gubmint” says that there is no price manipulation at work here.  Double LMAO.   :)

    Disclosure:  Been Short Oil since $96.13  

  • Skynard

    Hehe, your right. strong signal today:)

  • ridingwaves

    crude oil up the ass….think again….pass the hopium around….

    http://s3.postimage.org/3kj3y94mb/bakken_curve.jpg

  • Pervergence

    Look at SI again……jeez……..I’m going to wait on ES to see if we get a vwap test

  • Pervergence

    closed SI short……s GC still

  • bullregard

    Aaaand, got the much needed correction in stocks :)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Only on a ‘live cross’ ;-p

  • BobbyLow

    Really?  Seems like you might have fell for the smoke and mirrors.   I’m old enough to remember the Oil Spigot being turned off in 1976 because we were running out then.    That was 37 years ago.  If you want to fall for this kind of Bullshit over and over again, please be my guest.  :)

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t want to get into a Statistic Pissing Contest with you but for every one you put up I can put up a counter so perhaps we can simply agree to disagree.  

    http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/11/energy-facts-of-the-week-oil-production-highest-since-1994-oil-imports-lowest-since-1992-and-oil-jobs-highest-since-1988/

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    NUGT $5.99 – on sale, get your ice cold NUGT.
    4.40 may be a reality. Muwahaha.

    ok, I’m off to sit in a room full of people old as BobbyLow.
    -Gerb

  • ridingwaves

    the chart is real…are you sure that you didn’t buy into smoke and mirror? Why are we in almost every country in the mideast? for terrorists…no..why did we replace the regime in Iraq? Buying into Obama’s BS and the artic refuge bs is the road the govt. wants you to travel. the bakken oil can’t even power our gas needs for over 1 day…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     The science on fossil fuels is murky at best, and i think outright misleading.
    Remember BP disaster in Gulf? Oil was coming out so fast, they couldn’t fill tankers fast enough. Blew the casket with the whole platform.
    Now there are two abiotic holes – one in Alaska, one in Russia. No problem so far. Peak-oil is a hoax. look it up. There is plenty info on the internets and quite a few books

  • BobbyLow

    Well that’s good, you might be surprised at what you can learn from a bunch of old fucks.  :)

  • Skynard

    Full boat /ES

  • BobbyLow

    See this is exactly what I didn’t want to do and that is get into a bunch of Political Bullshit.   And no I do not buy into Obama’s BullShit or any Neo Con’s Bullshit either.  

    I make my own judgement based on what I see along with my experience and education.  If somebody doesn’t agree with me that’s OK.   

    BTW,  I wasn’t looking for a fucking argument earlier as I was only writing an opinion.  You don’t have to agree with me just like I don’t have to agree with you.  So please let it go.

  • ridingwaves

    yeah…a hoax made up be geologists and field engineers with ample evidence in production declines across global oil fields….

    Keep buying into AEI think tanks backed by the Koch brothers and major corporations…maybe we should shut down the strait of Hormuz to really see if we can sustain our country….

    I’ll take field reports over bs any day….

    u folks are making me chuckle….I guess gas at .25 cents is coming with all this new oil…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    TSLA

    EDIT: Please, don’t take this discussion personally. This is what makes the “Markets”, after-all.

  • bullregard

    Yeah… if “peak oil” fails to live we get into “peak oxygen”… Oh, wait… already in that too…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     I got a symbol for this one too:
    CCJ
    SCTY
    The future is now…

  • Skynard

    Very difficult to get direction on /NG, WTF!

  • bullregard

    It looks like distribution at resistance to me… I am short, little in red.

  • Maumaj

    The calm before the storm … NG report tomorrow AM.

  • Skynard

    Short as well, holding through tomorrow?:)

  • bullregard

    Not sure yet… Last time I decided to not gamble and missed a big favourable move… The expectation of draw is between -118 to -126. Kind of small draw for Feb, average being around 14 more drawn. This is what puzzles me, this buy-off with a bearish expectation. Makes me feel out of touch. Being at resistance, any inch up might trigger another squeeze… 

  • Skynard

    Interesting, Having similar thoughts right now. Would like to see 3.26 taken out prior to the report.

  • Pervergence

    S ES 1522     still s GC……out SI

  • Pervergence

    Those hourly signals are huge……..

  • bdoone

    4 minutes til FOMC minutes

  • Skynard

    Hehe, thanks for the warning:)

  • Pervergence

    Well ain’t this a fuckin mess……wish they would just shut up……lol

  • bullregard

    I think this is the whole point… they want a fucking mess… I have this feeling that in the long run they just want to shut down the markets for good… I know this can be written off as tin foil, but it’s my feeling. I’m not young either…

  • Pervergence

    Fear creates people easy to control…….

  • Pervergence

    Until fear comes from the heavens as meteors etc……..then the kings perish…..

  • bullregard

    Too much fear and you don’t give a rat’s ass any more… see Janis Joplin :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    Wow, dollar on fire!

  • Careus

     fossil fuels…this make me LMAO every time I hear that…I want to know what fossils made that oil..which this guys try to dig…

    “…Brazil’s platforms and rigs sit above 2,000 meters of water. The
    oil is anywhere between 2,000-7,000 meters below the sea bed and to get
    to it, engineers must drill through clay, then a variety of geographical
    formations like shale or calcium carbonate, before they hit a thick
    later of salt that can be thousands of meters thick.”