Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

I am seeing crucial breaches of short term inflection points all across the board this morning. Here is the E-Mini which is now trading below the 25-hour and 100-hour SMA. It seems that the 100-day and 25-week SMA combo was a bit much to overcome after axing any remaining short interest during the annual Thanksgiving week bear raping.

We are now below the inside day trigger at 1395 and I’m effectively short with a stop a few ticks above. Things are moving fast right now so I’ll better be quick:

This was gold just a few minutes ago and I was about to suggest a short position. And then this happened just now as I was typing my post:

Ooops… I must apologize. I accidentally hit that red button on my trading console with my elbow. Seriously now – I have no idea what happened there but I’m miffed as hell (trying to be polite here) that I didn’t put up my post earlier.

Same with silver – that setup just went to hell in a handbasket. Impossible to catch – you would have had to be short already which was not the preferred setup just 15 minutes ago.

AUD/USD actually just gave up the 100-hour SMA, so we could be switching to a short here if she lingers below.

The greenback is still looking good so don’t waste time. My stop is below the 100-hour SMA.

Quite a bit of movement across the rest of the FX sector but most setups have run off at this point. No sense in chasing and we’ll stick with looks good right now.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 28th, 2012 at 8:28 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Come one steel rats! Time to get to work!! ;-)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Thankful to be short gold as recom in the posting since yesterday – even though its only a half-runner.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You lucky bastard!!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    U meant u didnt go short? – As ur posting implied, its a low risk trade with an easy stop… I am out of the position during the slide, my target 1724 was triggered. Am currently long ES with 1 runner bcos the drop during the whole day looks very “forced”…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yep, I was about to – wanted to get the post up first (serving my intrepid subs). REALLY miffed over here….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s tough to be a blogger/analyst and trader at the same time sometimes.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Thanks! Wish u have a 0fx stuff coming soon for the ES as I was pondering whether to sub the Grem, but prefer to trade with things I can see… Hopeful Xmas wishlist.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Yeah /GC and /SI sometimes get crushed near the open of the US pit session
    Seems the tell was the close under the 100 hour

  • AMCabrera

    IM working my liege I can only go so fast with this bone saw 

  • AMCabrera

    one has to be wary of /jpy crosses running into 1hr 200ma . Im slashed up my aud/jpy short in half here.

  • AMCabrera

    commencing shelling in nzd/usd short.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure what you mean – there IS a ZeroFX.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    jajaja – reventé de risa :-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Good morning rats. I see we open right at the volume hole.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Oh, i meant hoping for a Zero ES that’s operational for futures trading when mkt is close.

  • Joe_Jones

    If we don’t fall off the plate here, I’ll be looking into a gap close trade.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Muwahaha (spoos 1388, no! 1387)

  • Ivan

    Greetings Mole … part of the reason why I am fond of 1/2 day views … 11 am and 11 pm my time suits my life pattern being a late riser!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    GLD, October Pivot S1 – 165.70

  • Schwerepunkt

    0-line rejection of 10-min EMA on the $TICK minute chart.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    and we’re off to the races

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I dunno 1384, getting outside the 100sma hourly 2.0 delta.
    kinda extreme, but never say never!

  • MrMargin

    TICK suggests a possible downtrend day, but that action right now looks too much like a selling climax for my taste.

  • Joe_Jones

    you’re right. Let’s not get overly optimistic on the bearish side

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks.

    Just sitting here watching the “Seasonal Santa Rally”.     

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    LMAO

    [Tee bitchez]

  • Skynard

    Put the /ES back to work after being stopped out:) Like the triple div on the 5 min as well.

  • Pervergence

    GC lost 25 day sma…..might be next support at 100day

  • Schwerepunkt

    2nd attempt at breach succeeded. Selling pressure has abated for now.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    update 1385.50
    some bear is taking profits, EDIT: leaving a whisker tail below.
    we’re going to have to wait for the next hourly candle to see if trend continues.

  • Joe_Jones

    Let us see if we get a VWAP breach first

  • captainboom

    I think Santa’s off bangin’ the Mrs. and forgot to show up for work today.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    About 8k contacts at the open
    Troncate warn us next time

  • Joe_Jones

    Closed my shorts

  • AMCabrera

    this is why I was waiting to further put on anymore aussie shorts.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Amateur Hour almost complete.

  • wrc1k

    /ES = SSDD

  • captainboom

    Bullish hammer on the hourly anyone?  Still needs to bake for a bit.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I see it,  it’s gonna be permanent in 2 minutes.

  • AMCabrera

    aud/usd 1hr 25ma is looking perfect though.

  • Skynard

    Hourly is not impressed and 5 min has a small signal range. Just saying.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    if there is a reversal today,
    Gerb will be looking for an echo move.
    bull or bear, it doesn’t matter, the Time will be the factor I’m watching for.

    http://s15.postimage.org/9rd9rod7t/echo.png
    -Gerb

  • ridingwaves

    Nov. 27 Comex December gold options expiry
    Nov. 27 Comex December silver options expiry
    Nov. 27 Comex December copper options expiry
    Nov. 28 Comex December miNY gold futures last trading day
    Nov. 28 Comex November copper futures last trading day
    Nov. 28 Comex December E-mini copper futures last trading day
    Nov. 28 Comex December miNY silver futures last trading day
    Nov. 30 Comex December gold futures first notice day
    Nov. 30 Comex December silver futures first notice day
    Nov. 30 Comex December copper futures first notice day
    Nov. 30 Nymex December palladium futures first notice day

  • AMCabrera

    ok literally a guess here the news outlets will give credit to hope fueled rhetoric out of congress, I give credit to non decisive order book and too much balance.  

  • AMCabrera

    watch this yall. putting b/e at 85.90 wanna see the fastest 30 pip rise in aud/jpy.

  • ronebadger

    WOWEEEEEE!

  • Schwerepunkt

    What’s a 12-pt move between bowel movements?

  • AMCabrera
  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Does the price action invalidated the downtrend day alert? I was long during the early mkt dip but flipped to short now.

  • BobbyLow

    Amazing ain’t it?  LMAO

    If there were actual human beings making Institutional buy/sell decisions on every political rumor that came out of the halls of government and business everywhere, what kind of people would they be?

    IMO, considering the types of knee jerk reactions that occur, these people would have to be a bunch of drunked up teenagers because no responsible adult would be making decisions based on the flow of bull shit that occurs on a daily basis.

    So yes, order books and computer programs written to constantly fade price action is reality.   

  • ridingwaves

    jumped into this flyer at 1.55..VRML

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • MrMargin

    Lower panel shows the TICK count. Only looking at the count at one point may lead you astray. The readings should have stayed below the threshold at all time on a real TD.

  • Skynard

    Lol, getty up!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    :-D
    MA 100 & 25 spoos about to be violated?

  • Joe_Jones

    Reloading 1/2 position short on signal

  • AMCabrera

    pssh that is why when I saw that 200sma for the hourly chart for the aud/jpy I said to myself just take half profit. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are still with me short at 1.0450 and .8200 respectively. Same thing with aud/usd when I saw that huge plug at 1.0450 I should have just said fuck this short the rallies

  • AMCabrera

    mmm seems reasonable. 

  • BobbyLow

    “I should have just said fuck this short the raliies.”

    And fade the down swing.  I can’t believe I just said that because for the most part, I’ve always tried to be a MO MO Playa. 

    But lately, I’ve gone the other way and been fading the hourly bands.   So far so good.  I actually went long AUD/USD this morning at the lower Band and sold at the Upper band.  

    Nothing works 100% of the time but it worked today.  In any event, I’m three for three this morning on Forex and back to cash.   

    I’m kinda liking this sniper action but I’m done for the day.  In the past, I would try to extend my winnings and then begin to give some back.   Not today.   :)  

  • AMCabrera

    That was the smart move. My problem this morning was an awful thinking process and I was afraid to let go of my short when it was at 1.0430.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We got ourselves a roller coaster I guess ;-)

  • Skynard

    Bull flag 5 min

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • AMCabrera

    Kaiser 4hr 25sma for aud/jpy like a magnet.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The 100-hr SMA (the same obviously) was a proverbial wall :-)

  • AMCabrera

    adding the half back (short)

  • AMCabrera

    darn tootin!

  • AMCabrera
  • Schwerepunkt

    Quick, somebody bring out Paul Ryan to say a few words . . . LOL . . . but wait until I put my shorts on!

  • Joe_Jones

    5 min ZL seems to be missing some data

  • itslance

    WTF?! Are we supposed to be long again now that we’re above the 25 & 100 SMAs?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Wurd.

  • Joe_Jones

    Adding 1/4 short QQQ here: AAPL closed the gap, there is the 25 H top BB on ES providing resistance and the 25 H lower BB on DX providing support

  • Skynard

    Going for a new high now:)

  • captainboom

    I think it’s a disturbance in the Matrix when that happens.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    U cant short a day when the inside day candle got reverse bcos the traders who went the wrong direction will cover at every opportunity (bloody fuel). Well, guess I should follow my own advice as I have return half of my profits from my longs when i got itchy fingers and went short just now… :X

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Well, the last 5 mins of action looks promising. maybe my shorts will survive.

  • Joe_Jones

    Full position short now (at least until VWAP)

  • Skynard

    5 min lower panel winding up;)

  • AcoBrasil

    $VIX filled an overhead gap before heading down this morning, which is not a great omen for market shorts. On the other hand, I can’t remember the last time I saw the front month futures running neck to neck with spot.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    exited at that dip with a few bucks profits…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    alright, lunch’s over, time to reverse

  • AcoBrasil

    I’m staying in cash until this resolves one way or the other. I am watching GFA for a swing trade, which is pinging between its 200sma and 100sma in a pretty tight range. I should have bought this morning at $3.62

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    Here come the Marines:)

    Buy point on the signal touch.




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