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Weekend Chart Roll Call
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Weekend Chart Roll Call

by The MoleMay 23, 2010

As mentioned on Friday – I’m a bit strapped for time this weekend, so this forecast is served Speedy Gonzales style. However, that doesn’t mean there is no meat on my charts – as a matter of fact, they are juicy and succulent. As usual we are looking across the board to develop a good sense of the odds for next week.

Alright, let’s get right to it:

As you all know I am still following the developing fractal on my NYSE A/D ratio chart. This is the 2008 pattern…

… and this is where we are today. Although not identical the resemblance is almost uncanny. According to this we should see a temporary correction lasting a week or less followed by a final drop lower. The timing is of course relative – this pattern seems to unfold much quicker.

Last time we looked at our ISEE Equities chart we marveled at the historic record bullish reading of 350, which was way outside the 2nd and maybe even 3rd standard deviation. In other words – hapless retail traders were chasing the market up. It’s strange how people keep repeating the same behavioral pattern over and over again, much to their financial detriment I may add. It’s what Prechter often refers to in his own pertinent work, which he calls Socionomics. Well- as so often retail traders chased the market right at the top and the rest is history.

However, we are now on the opposite end of the sentiment scale. A 100 reading usually means that a low is either in place or will be in the near term future. Yes, we may see lower readings – after all we did not anticipate a reading of 350 either. However, my personal opinion is that it is a bit early in the game for that – I would expect sub 100 readings during Intermediate (3) of Primary {3}.

Here is the 10-day SMA version of the previous chart. As you can see we slowly gyrated higher inside a rising channel. Then there was an outlier – or throw-over as they call it. Now we are at a bearish support line which spans from the summer of 2009 through the last ‘great bear squeeze’ to today. A reasonable assumption would be that we push higher towards the channel and then ideally fail – assuming that we are in Primary {3}.

My CPCE 10-day SMA chart has also snapped back to the other side of the sentiment scale – considering recent patterns that is. And that’s really where the rubber meets the road when it comes to charting. A channel only works until it is broken – we see that happen on daily price charts almost on a daily basis. But until this happens the odds here are now shifting to the long side, even if it’s only temporary.

This is actually my favorite chart this week. The TRIN is notoriously difficult to chart (mostly because everyone looks at the raw signal) but I think I’m getting a handle on this thing. After staring at this chart for a few hours now it reveals a clear depiction of long and short squeezes – the former happened in the ruthless 2008 sell off, the latter of course in the eternal buoyant market of 2009. Traversing the blue line you can basically watch long traders getting killed trying to pick a bottom. Similarly in 2009 you can see the bears lose their shirt trying to short a market that just wouldn’t quit.

Here is the 10-day SMA version of the same chart. Again, we are in overbought territory and again it’s not where I would want to be short term positioned to the downside. Long term is another story – as I keep repeating almost on a daily basis.

EUR/JPY also pushing higher – my target zone is between 115 – 116 – we got a bit more potential left on the stochastic.

My wave counts both point up – either short or medium term. I think the chart is pretty clear and resistance/support lines have been highlighted. Yes, it’s possible we push lower here on Monday – I did not discount that and originally hoped that we would drop a lot further before a reversal. However, all my sentiment/momentum charts are now lining up with each other, so the odds for a continuous drop are lowered IMNSHO. A breach of the Friday lows would not disqualify Blue and Orange, simply we would have to expect a more extended third wave (as previously expected).

Bottom line: Monday and Tuesday will be instrumental in determining whether or not we completed Minor 1 of Intermediate (1) of Primary {3} on Friday or if we’ll see final leg down to 1045. That should however be the end of it as I have doubts that there is enough bearish momentum left to have the market fall off the plate at such an early stage. The Primary Zero also supports this notion as we painted some bullish candles on OPX Friday. Yes, that is often a crazy head fake day, which is why I am entertaining Soylent Blue in the first place. But my momo charts are telling me that we need buyers to return to the market and relieve some of the oversold conditions.

Live well and prosper!

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    First comment gets to test drive my new human slingshot.

  • http://www.blenderking.com Dan Robbins

    Sure. Slingshots sound groovy!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    1045 seems a good target for end of this move down.. theoretically/analytically but odds prob 50/50 for continued rally ..here in Spain BOS steps in for savings bank Cajasur..tip of iceberg?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bring a helmet and an umbrella.

  • Gold_Gerb

    missed it by that much [again].

  • Zero % forever

    Sydney open Yen slightly strong against both Eur ,Aud & Gbp. Chf is getting a safety bid against yen. Long treasury -slightly in the green. Gold dropped 4-5 and now +5 or so. Hong kong was closed Friday.Japan fell hard on Friday. Unless Nkkie and Aussie markets regain their Friday loss convincingly ES will be +/-4/5 pts may be. check this out
    http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance

  • psycho_puppies

    From what I gather the majority are anticipating a major spike that they can short into. Is this the first time the majority is correct?

  • elliott_surfs

    the majority is right until wrong, then the minority banks big. with the ranges blown wide open, none of that matters.
    this is now a trader's paradise.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Thanks Mole. Great post.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    I think the majority are still expecting a new high from here.

    A majority of the bears are expecting a spike to short into. Not quite the same thing.

  • jacksoo

    hey jack – have you had problems logging on to anna?

  • yudhisthira

    Thanks Mole. I love my Sunday evening charting newspaper here.

    Copper, EUR/JPY, and ES trying to setback .6% this evening.
    A bit early for that kind of horseplay.

  • psycho_puppies

    “A majority of the bears are expecting a spike to short into.”

    Jack,
    The bears should know it’s not going to be that easy.

  • yudhisthira

    Gotta turn in.
    At least we are not up 30 ES points like two Sunday's ago.
    Where the hell is everybody?

  • captainboom

    Fireworks season is upon me. Took me all evening to catch up on posts since Thursday…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I know – it's dead in here… everyone retired after last weeks profit? 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    I spent the afternoon listening to stories and learning how to make jerky from my Indian friend.

  • Onorio

    So the big road to hell is the best option here…

    No new highs for the bulls and no spike for bears to short…everyone FIA

  • katzo7
  • MDX

    Please, do share a recipe. Mole will make some for all of us! Extra bloody for me please. …but, seriously, I wonder how easy is it to make one at home?

  • MDX

    Nice! Me like!

  • Onorio

    Usualy a triangle is a continuation pattern…

  • Bob the Horse

    did you see my comment to you on previous post? Watch the implied vol in Europe – that is what will drive your gap.

  • katzo7

    Yes I did, thnx.

  • katzo7
  • Onorio

    Taking a AUD short here, top of ichimoku cloud.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Clarification: My friend and I weren't actually making jerky so I didn't get hands on experience. Instead, he was telling me how to do it while we were sitting out on the street corner getting rained on. He didn't give me a brine recipe but basically told me the procedures. His thesis was remove all moisture. If you're living in a house with an oven: After you soak strips of meat in a brine, you use a rolling pin to squeeze moisture out from the meat. Then you lay the strips out on the oven racks, set the oven to maybe 300, and, most importantly, keep the oven door open part way. You want to get a crust on the outside of the meat. He also mentioned something about salt 😉

  • Onorio

    DAX is fadding, ES is fading too and the EUR, well the EUR if following the usual road…down.

    Seem like it was only a morning hard-on.

  • Onorio

    Well that was fast!

    Im trying Ichimoku cloud system for the first time, i`ve already know this system but i`ve never trade it before, looking good so far.

  • jacksoo

    sounds like an illness O

  • Onorio

    Yup weird name, but it`s kind of simple to trade.

    http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/forex/a

  • gatopeich

    Morning Bob, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    I did see your comment and *almost* agree. Europe's love story with markets *should* be about to finish. *But* there is not much for the bull case here, and still high risk of new panics.

    I see the inflation pumping the markets hard, but obviously there is another force countering it. Beware of what you cannot see!

    Those protections are expensive for some reason…

    Good luck, and be cautious!

  • Bob the Horse

    As Warren Buffet says, 'be greedy when others are fearful'. There are loads of problems in the world for sure but there are a lot of indicators showing extreme selling pressure. The odds on being short here look terrible to me.

  • Onorio

    Well when Lheman colapse fear was on the street and we`re at 1100, after that we bottom at 666.

  • Bob the Horse

    you're being too long term, there were some massive rallies on the way down to 666 as well. What matters is what is going to happen over the next 5 days.

  • chronographics

    Hi Onorio, ichi is a good system just make sure u use it on minimum of 15 or 20 Min time span. Maybe also run an hourly on it at the same time. :-)

  • Onorio

    IMO, we make a new low and rally to 1100, but like i`ve said before if we go straight down from here it would be painfull to bears and bulls so…lets wait.

  • Onorio

    Hey chrono im using hourly :) tks!

  • chronographics

    Hi Gatopeich, long time no speak to you. How is the new job going?

  • chronographics

    Yea its a pretty good system at keeping you with the trend

  • Onorio

    I`ve looked at some charts during the weekend and seems to nail all major moves, and since i dont like to overtrade i`ve decided to give it a try.

  • amokta

    ftse fading, rbs green to red
    normally you would expect ftse to have stayed up given last US session was up (mind you , US futures a bit down?)
    might be opportunity to short spx on US open, if it gaps up ?

  • chronographics

    Cool, you can make it quite mechanical so takes the “maybe” out of trading. Also if you looking at the bigger time frames ie 4 hourly and daily you can make sure you only take those signals in direction of the next larger trend :-)

  • katzo7

    ST buy on UNG, target 7.40, then possibly 8.

  • gagelle

    “This is a quintessential liquidity crisis,” said William Cunningham, head of credit strategies and fixed-income research at Boston-based State Street Corp.’s investment unit, which oversees almost $2 trillion. “It’s not inconceivable to imagine a situation where the markets behave so poorly, the liquidity behaves so badly, and risk-tolerance just evaporates that — particularly in Europe — consumers contract, businesses stop hiring and stop investing, and economic activity halts.” …from Bloomberg “Libor Shows Strain, Sales Dwindle, Spreads Soar: Credit Markets”

  • amokta

    Futures flash-crash, of flash-in-the-pan?
    how can markets turn on a dime?

  • Onorio

    Are you using Ichimoku in a daily base for trading? Or you use other systems?

    Im thinking in use it for my FX daily trades, if it works well.

  • chronographics

    I use Ichi for both day trading and longer term. So Short term use 15 min with hourly longer term use 4 hourly and daily. On all I use an oscillator a modified stochastic. This is what just pays the bills. I also put this in an (EW) wave structure. Mostly I use this to tell me what the market shouldn't do. The thing is EW is so subjective as Mole wud say Mental masturbation. I have been trading so long and seen some brilliant EW analysts look at the same data and get different counts. All you can do is go with the flow, put the price action in a framework and trade what your “system” says.
    I used to have proprietary software that used to display data in a different format which showed bars in a proper time format not as the average bars we see on most charting software but I no longer have it and dont have the time to do it by hand. that used to give some amazing signals. Still ichi works and that is what counts. I am off to bed – Short Euro from 1.2597, good luck for tonight

  • momac

    Good morning! Hope everyone had a wonderful weekend.

  • anoopsan

    THE I SHARE RUSSEL 2000 INDEX Upward moving channel

    http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

    thank you

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    GM all :-)

    I've done a pre-market writeup for anyone interested:

    http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05

    Not much to add apart from thinking that ES looks an interesting short if it gets as far as 1086.5:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    and that EURUSD looks like a great short on a bounce:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

  • aussiebinlaughin

    Finally bit the bullet and subscribed, cant quite believe that i waited so long. Looked at the size of my positions and realised that $30 a month is peanuts in comparison. I thought that i was saving $20, instead of potentially helping to protect a lot more. Human logic is indeed a strange beast at times.
    Ive been in Hong Kong for the last week visiting my bro. He is head of IT & Comms (Asia section) for a very big investment bank. Went out with some of his colleagues over the week that included traders, a fund sales manager, couple of analysts and one so called ecomonist that looks at the big picture. Getting drunk with some of these guys was great as after an evening or two, they loosened up (got drunk enough) for me to quiz them about where they thought we were headed in the markets.
    The head of sales for the funds they offer, apparently a big shot from NY and on a gazillion $ a year, said, to quote 'this recent retrace makes me feel more bullish than ever about the markets, as earnings continue to improve, everyone will realise how these debt issues have been way overdone'.
    Both anlaysts, one was supposed to one of the most sought after energy analysts worldwide, thought that it should be 1930s all over again, but that the power of TARP and its equivalents in Europe and Asia, should not be discounted in their ability to distort markets.
    The most interesting guy, who i cornered for about 3 hours was the economist. His view was that he is essentially quite bullish, especially on the US this year, but thought that next year is gonna be carnage as earnings fail to push through as expected. He firmly believes we are headed for deflation medium term and in his words 'we are in a situation where we can only make money buy buying equities/funds for our clients, thats fine for the moment (he thinks), but next year when we should be telling people to sit on cash is gonna be very tough, nigh on impossible for us, we cannot tell them that.

    Sorry its of no use for trading guys, but still, I thought it was worth sharing with you what some of the so called big boys thought. I thought it was particularly telling what the economist said about how they should be telling many people to sit on cash, yet cant…as they wont make any money. I know its not rocket science, but remember a lot of people have a huge vested interest in making you think the world is rosy and on its way to recovery. In reality, many of them think the same as what we (most of us) do.

  • Onorio

    Hey Jack! I`ve just shorted EURJPY on a retest of ichimoku cloud, after we break lower this morning.

    Stop is at 112.50, top of the cloud.

  • MDX

    Thanks for sharing Aussie. Interesting. Welcome on board. It took me over a year (!) to subscribe here after I found this dirty evil little blog!

  • BobbyLow

    Good Mornin Folks.

    Looks like a lot of people are at least short term Bullish. And I suppose they could certainly be correct.

    I'm going to have to take the other side of that opinion if for no other reason of my memory of late last summer when mostly all forecasts were for a correction to the downside.

    Well the market defied all logic back then (surprise) and it can defy logic again.

  • BobbyLow

    Oh and one other thing, IMO, market is looking for Bag Holders right now.

    That's not to say that I won't take a Short Term Long Position. But I would want to see stronger momentum other than a last 20 minute blast on Op Ex Friday.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Welcome to the club, Aussie!

  • Kudos

    Exactly, the market is looking for bag holders. IMO we will need to see people call this last fall a health correction before we can have another major leg down. I think we will see a rally and the chasers will become the bagholders. Also can't ignore copper, tops take a while to play out.

  • roscoe_casita

    Morning all, $DVOL is starting to pick up (Institutions off loading) while $UVOL is dropping (Weak bull hands)

    ->Watch that $TICK, if we see -1K, distribution is in full force.

  • amokta

    NO gap up today – what happened to manic mondays?
    Anyway, is this a bearish sign of itself, or no neither here nor there?
    Bought back some spy puts (some drop in premium, so bought back)
    Bought some more GMCR puts, you cant keep a good ponzi down?
    By the way, interesting reads – mahendraprophecy.com (for those who trade on astrology)

  • bananaben

    I'm thinking the same thing. Dropped my shorts last week and now I'm asking where is the big rally? Might still be coming this afternoon. Who knows what “they” have in store for us! Looking to start reloading at 1100 and above but I'm nervous that it might not even get there.

  • roscoe_casita

    Thought the consensus was … a gap up to short into.

    The P&F Chart says a reversal already happened, looking for 1056 for new trend to be set. Also 200 day EMA crossed the MA.

  • amokta

    yes, that was the consensus, even anna said that could short above 1100, and likely top-out at 1130. But looking a slow start, i reshorted, perhaps too early!

  • roscoe_casita

    Naw, we don't have $UVOL +20 like mutual fund mondays, something has changed. Friday was a +10 $UVOL, 1/2 a monday, on a friday? something is up.

    $DVOL > $UVOL, very different from the past mondays.

  • skynard

    IHS pattern on 15min SPX W/target @ 1125-1130. playing that as well.

  • Wave_Surfer

    Are we forming a triple top?

  • Kudos

    I'd be more scared of a slow rally as a bear. A large bounce today would have been nice to short into, or change your allocation. But a slow sustained rally might spawn the sun of soylent blue and more pain for the bears.

  • amokta

    equally, could we be forming a bottom ??

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    We've touched it four times since dipping into this range. Arguably five now.

  • gsavli

    8th time's a charm?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    NQ leading… whenever this happens, we get a sizeable bounce… it starts with NQ leading and then sector rotation into small caps (as speculators become convinced that bottom is in)….

    IMO one needs to watch for TF relatively strong compared to NQ and ES to even start thinking that the bounce is ending..

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Agree … a large bounce is easily fade-able..

    Slow melt up sucks in bears and frustrates them and creates short squeeze.. and that is what is more dangerous for bears…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Too soon to be looking for a top IMO. Today is the day when NQ is very very strong. IMO it will end the day like that as well.. then there will be a day when money rotates out of NQ into TF… that is when one should start looking for a top IMO.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Must agree there. Plus the flat signal on the Zero has in the past favored the bulls.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NQ was also leading last night.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Yes.. I did notice NQ was leading last night too… which is why in VST/ST, it is “buy-the-dips” mode…

    Market will not go down as long as NQ is leading to the upside.. and the relative strength in NQ is not merely marginal. It is quite astounding IMO.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The melt-up continues. They might target the 1094-95 region as the top for today… that is where the bounce from 107x failed few days back. That is also where a big gap resides.. AND that is where a lot of the bear stops must be…

    We need to carefully monitor the action in that area. If we retrace from below 1094, then that is bullish. If we take out 1094 (run bear stops) and then reverse, we could see a meaningful retracement..

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Even though it LOOKS rather miniscule… the ZL is registering quite a decent sized positive signal.. and it is at the near the highest levels for today.. so give it the due respect that it deserves.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    first k100% on fast we're closing in… PM should bring a double k100% (on lazy and fast) and then it's downhill

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Mole – you are one dedicated SOB.. I just read the note on the Zero chart that you are going to get in touch with TOS to get that one day's worth of data issue resolved… I am very very impressed by your dedication.. Keep up the good work…

    I like this paid model much better …. keeps the noise to a minimum.

  • Onorio

    abcXabc? down now?

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. The flat ZL signal combined with ES staying in the higher range to and pushing upper SD on VWAP was enough for me to hold my nose and buy a few Calls to bring my Net Delta on SPY and IWM back to positive.

    Keeping a close eye on her though. :)

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    The big picture on ES since Friday's low:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    so the zero signal is flat eh? will keep an eye out thanks…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    one more push I would guess based on short term stochastics and rsi (if anyone missed it, a lazy hamster is a slow stochastic with 208,168, fast rat is a fast stochastic with 104,40, R(at)SI is 26, all in 2 min. charts)

  • Tyler_K

    So are you implying that Warren Buffet is day trading then?

  • Onorio

    NQ

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NTU2ODY2Y

    And im being bullish, or i could count this as a 1.2.i.ii

  • Wave_Surfer

    I guess I was looking for a short term wave 4 top.

  • WTFed

    I see it being flat but don't quite und the ETA and then a VTA on the other side.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Classic melt-up day… love the bulls…

  • Tronacate

    bearish div on the lite???…….or at least flat as a pancake

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    there is a divergennce on the stochastics, should we rollover with just that first k100 on fast?

  • EvilTrader

    Is a lower low, in this correction(?) in the cards ?

    I wouldnt count bears dead yet. I myself am onthe sidelines, just doing some minor scalps.

    Any opinions ?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Must agree there – I really like the way we've got it here. Dedicated and serious traders watch this blog for a while and if they like it eventually decide to join. At the same time the feebie chasers are happy to as they get they want, even if it's a bit later.

    Zero chart: Well, I'm German by nature and I can't accept missing data – hope they'll fix it.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    falling wedge painted in last hour or two (within the bigger rising wedge) OR AM I hallucinating in the middle of the day…. Need to get more sleep at night…

  • tradingmom

    Looks like we fell out of a rising wedge. Plus, ES now finally below VWAP — I love this new feature Mole!

  • BobbyLow

    FWIW, pretty hard for the S&P to rally without the Financials and the Oilers.

    We'll see what the last two hours have in store for us.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Weird activity on the big S&P futures contract today – anyone seeing what I'm seeing?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, it's a wedge but I'm not sure how low we'll fall – the entire tape seems to be manipulated today. I call it the 'slow boil'.

  • roscoe_casita

    1078/9 is where i have the 2 day trend line from the lows, (512 tick) (Also the bottom range of the volume distribution)

    Already busted today's line.

    $DVOL > $UVOL again, Mutual Fund Monday Fail, the jig is up for today, everyone has bought everything they could and leveraged themselves long, the risk is to the downside. 1090 has become severe resistance.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Tell me where to look and I will see…

    A good friend told me that a big time pit trader shorted the big contract on 1071 on Friday and was trapped.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    This smells like the action we saw on Friday.. gradual melt down and then a GBD into close..

    Honestly we are holding up nicely well above the lows.. so the bounce will proceed.. may be some more forays into 1070s….

  • Tronacate
  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Basic summary, so far no bullish Monday, at least for the Dow. Short-term though, it still looks like we are primed for some sort of a rebound. I am looking for a rise towards the 20/50 day moving averages in what will be a critical test of support/resistance. Intermediate term correction is still in effect, and primary bull trend appears intact http://portfoliotilt.com/stock-market-analysis/

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    feels like wave 4 kind of trading…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't think so… thought the action looks strange I stand by my last comment, and if this drops from a “mere” fast rat then it's bearish

  • EvilTrader

    1083 is holding on spx.

    Losing this support can do some damage. I have a feeling theres some more panic just around the corner.

    But i lack any directional conviction (or info) to play it.

    what bugs me is a huge -10% vix and a red day on broadmarket.

  • raised_by_wolves

    No, Mole, are you watching the order flow?

    What I'm seeing is a price fractal pattern.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    If it plays out the same way, it would result in your soylent blue drop though the reversal could happen lower at, say, 1094.45.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    -Raised By Wolves

    P.S. Do you have any favorite home remedy for lice?

  • Clint

    Totally agree with you on that last statement.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Looks like a possibility. I'm not short term short though – I can't according to the odds. Keeping it simple/stupid – I'm a simple man.

  • roscoe_casita

    When the VIX starts moving down with a falling market… People are becoming complacent with a falling market?

    Aye, somethings got a give.

  • elliott_surfs

    Glad to see someone else paying attention to them crazy fractals =) keep us posted please, RBW

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Very possible H&S forming on ES:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

  • raised_by_wolves

    If this price fractal leads to soylent blue despite indicators like $CPCE showing the probability of a long reversal, what would happen after soylent blue? That's when you'd get a long reversal AKA elevator ride back up unless the tape falls too hard and fast, right?

  • amokta

    my plan for tomorrow – if we gap up, or have convincing rise, i am closing most shorts, and considering going long (what makes this time different to Feb re-bound)

  • Onorio

    Can i call you fractal_by_wolves?

  • Onorio

    Why not wait for a short entry? why long?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Unfortunately, I have to go shopping for a LiceGuard Robi Comb so can't watch the tape continously. I'll try to update everyone before market close.

  • amokta

    ive got some shorts in profit which are running (gmcr/htz/rbs), but dont want to lose the profits like the last few times the market went back up despite prechters 'assurance' that this was 'it'!

  • Onorio

    If you aren`t confident with your position or if the market reach a point where you must get out i have to agree your decision to take profits, but go long after that it`s another story.

  • elliott_surfs

    thank you anyway RBW =) good luck with them damned lice

  • roscoe_casita

    3 lower lows, 3 lower highs, below this is a 3rd wave.

    You know what sucks about being a Bull? Stampedes.

  • amokta

    yeah, i think i put in 'going long' to complete the sentence! But going long is a possibility also

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sure thing. Although I'm not sure that the /ES fractal playing out is a sure thing. Let's see if it plays out as I imagine . . . against the odds.

  • raised_by_wolves

    FYI, Mole's had a new post up for 10 minutes now.

  • Onorio

    Not buying dips now, even with the risk of miss big opportunities…

  • Onorio

    Cnbc :

    “Regulators May Never Discover Cause of Market's 'Flash Crash'”

    Wasn`t the fat finger?!

  • amokta

    why have we been excluded from the party – i demand a refund!

  • Long_John_Silver

    Neeme oil. Non-toxic, consult yr local health food market. Malathion doesn't work any longer, they're immune. The kid has been plagued this year, but Harvard Health Letter advises that lice are very minor as a health issue, not worth the repeated dosages of poison recommended by most pharmacies anyway. Instead, you comb them out, then go back for the nits, combing regularly, & apply the neeme oil liberally.

    More information than you needed – !? but i've become an expert ..

  • elliott_surfs

    lol. one fat finger that decided the uptrend was over. that's one ballsy finger.
    finger.
    finger.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Well they do say that the road to hell is wide. :-)

  • MDX

    Thanks a lot for response!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you. I didn't see this until after buying LiceMD (damn DISQUS comments arrive late to the inbox), which is marketed as non-toxic. The active ingredient is dimethicone. I'll keep neeme oil in mind if there is a next time.

  • gatopeich

    Hello Chrono!
    New job is quite good, thanks! Working my ass off actually, yet no workaholic scenario, and well paid. BTW, I get to be the 'boss' of some guy in Australia… Making twice as much as I do!

  • chronographics

    great to hear you are enjoying it, yeah those bl..dy Aussies know how you feel :-)
    See/speak to you on the battlefield