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Weekend From Hell
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Weekend From Hell

by The MoleOctober 2, 2017

I am still trying recover from what gradually turned into the weekend from hell. Over here in Europe independentistas in Catalonia facing off against by Spanish police forces, attempting to stop what it considers an illegal election, turned into a major skirmish which left hundreds injured and an entire nation in political turmoil. Meanwhile in France an Islamic terrorist stabbed and killed two women with a knife at a train station in Marseille before being tackled by another woman (respect!) and eventually shot and killed by security forces. Not to miss out on all the havoc an ISIS supporter in Edmonton, Canada ran over a police officer with a truck and then jumped out of the vehicle stabbing the officer with a knife after which he ran off and managed to injure four more bystanders.

And just when I thought this may be it for the weekend the mass shooting at the Mandalay Bay hotel in Vegas happened. Quite frankly at this point I am at a loss for words. And no worries, I am most certainly not going to serve you the usual hapless platitudes about ‘my thoughts being with the victims’ and ‘this won’t change our way of life’, yada yada. Grand standing and virtue signaling are most definitely not going to bring any of the unfortunate victims back.

The Sour Fruits Of Polarization

What however may make a difference in the future, being the only trajectory in time and space we have the power to control, is to take a collective step back and think about how we actually got ourselves into such a lamentable situation barely one century after two consecutive world wars. Last week I warned everyone right here about the dangers of political polarization and the demonization of opposing views or opinions. Which is a topic I could spend a lot of time covering but choose not to as this is and always will be a trading blog and thus not the proper platform for political debate.

So I will simply say this. The human time line is riddled with disagreements, conflict, wars, conquests, injustice, and of course the main ingredient: human suffering. All of which historically is eventually followed by compromise and renewal. To assume that this moment in time is unique would be foolish as our failings are the inherent result of our human nature, which unlike technology and science has not changed since the moment we crawled out of our caves about two hundred thousand years ago. Blaise Pascal is quoted has having said that ‘all of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone‘. I think he was right and as long as there are people on earth there will always be recurring conflict. Which means the more people on this earth the more conflict one should expect.

The Lesser Of Two Evils

When I was young my perspective of the future was one of linear progression, growth and ever increasing wisdom/maturity, roughly in line with of our technological advances (if you count out weapons of mass destruction). However as I grew older and just a little bit wiser I came to realize that nothing in life is linear and that history is full of setbacks with only intermittent progress or renewal. Our momentary perspective on human and political reality are as fleeting as leafs in the autumn breeze and are usually strongly influenced by geographical and cultural self interest. There are times when right and wrong are easily determined (i.e. Vegas, Edmonton, or Marseille) and then there are others when truth folds like an onion and each side delivers convincing arguments (i.e. Catalonia).

While I most definitely do not approve of civilians (including children and seniors) being beat into submission by police forces, history has taught me that might is always right and that long term self interests will always outweigh short term moral concerns. Like it or not, the ruling class or elite usually winds up winning and whether it is for the worse or for the better is often only clear in hindsight and up to historians to sort out once the rest of us have long moved on and forgotten.

In other words: Don’t be too quick to take sides before understanding the big picture. And even then there are times when the only way to win is not to play. Life isn’t fair to any of us and that also includes Mariano Rajoy, who I am sure will now have to face a whole fur-ball of internal domestic problems after effectively enraging the citizens of an entire autonomous region. It’s quite possible going forward that Spain will face serious domestic strive and even terrorism on top of an already existing Islamic jihadist threat which just recently took the toll of dozens of innocent lives in Barcelona. I absolutely would not want to be in Rajoy’s shoes as he effectively faces a lose/lose proposition: Let Catalonia declare itself independent and Spain most likely faces political and financial turmoil. Or prevent Catalonia from holding the vote and most likely face the very same.

In the end Rajoy made the only choice that offered him a slim chance of retaining Catalonia. Frankly I never doubted that it would play out exactly as it did. But I also knew right away that it would come at a huge cost, and in the end may devolve into a full fledged civil war. Do not think for a second Rajoy did not consider the implications of his actions as he most certainly did. It’s possible that this situation somehow could have been prevented but there are moments in life when you are forced to pick between the lesser of two evils. Rajoy made his choice and Spain will most likely never be the same, no matter how this plays out.

As a side note, and just to give you an appreciation of the complexity of the issue: Assuming for a moment that Catalonia in the end succeeds in its push for independence. What then? Apparently the intent of the independendistas is to immediately join the European Union, but there’s a hitch as this requires an unanimous approval by all current member nations. And most certainly Spain, Italy, and most likely France would vote against it as each of them face their own domestic independence movements. So I really wonder if the average Catalonian has thought things through as EU membership, and thus economic support and recognition (thus also effecting its credit ratings, bond issues, etc.), for an independent Catalonia seems highly unlikely.

Now you may come to understand why I love to be an independent trader. The odds and probabilities are much easier to determine and unlike in real life at the end of the day there’s always one winner and one loser – it’s a zero sum game. Plus the only person hating you after the fact is only the one on the other side of your trade and not an entire nation, tribe, religious group, or family. Unless of course your name is Bernard Madoff…

2017-10-02_spoos_update

Now back to business. Our E-Mini campaign is in good shape and I am now moving my trail from break/even to about 0.7R – just below 2510. Nothing really to do here as the formation on the short term panel seems to be unfolding according to plan.

2017-10-02_wheat_update

Wheat however didn’t fare as well but at least the stop out was quick and painless in that we didn’t have to watch it gyrate around for days or weeks on end. I usually prefer it this way: you pick the wrong side and know shortly after. You learn a little and move on.

2017-10-02_USDCAD_update

USD/CAD is still in the running, courtesy of what I would call a very fortuitous trailing stop. I’m not touching it for now until I see another spike low. With a bit of luck and patience/discipline we may be able to ride this one all the way.

2017-10-02_EURUSD_watch

EUR/USD is on my watch list and I am tempted to throw a 1/4% on a short position if we get a nice spike high after a bounce to ~ 1.175. Let’s remember we would be trading against the current medium term trend, so no big counter bets here, as much as I would like to see the Euro swirl the toilet. Yes, I am selfish – at least I’m in touch with my inner bastard 😉

2017-10-02_ZN_watch

ZN is still on my watch list – didn’t really see a convincing spike low yet and it’s possible it’ll continue further down to touch its lower 100-day BB.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    that Blaise Pascal quote is a great one….24 hour a day media via smartphone, streaming, tv, radio and such is just ripping folks to shreds….best to reflect on John Muir in these times….the church of nature is the most powerful form or religion….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, so true. I see myself retire in a very remote and quiet spot as the daily noise of human strive and conflict is starting to affect me. And obviously it’s just going to get worse and worse…

  • BobbyLow

    You are an excellent writer Mole. Well done!

    “. . .Now you may come to understand why I love to be an independent trader. The odds and probabilities are much easier to determine and unlike in real life at the end of the day there’s always one winner and one loser – it’s a zero sum game. Plus the only person hating you after the fact is only the one on the other side of your trade. . .”

    I’m grateful for being able to look at my charts this morning and think about what I want to do. Doing this allows for a compartmentalized distraction from the horrible things going on around us all. . .

  • ridingwaves

    to think this was written in the early 1900’s he is speaking of here….times this by a 1000 in regards to the nerves of todays citizens….
    “Thousands of tired, nerve-shaken, over-civilized people are beginning to find out that going to the mountains is going home; that wildness is a necessity”
    ? John Muir, Our National Parks

  • ridingwaves

    BL, its kind of why I like surfing…you against mother nature, you at peace in the ocean, you learning just how small you are as your getting thrashed around after having a big wave break on your head…I have been humbled a lot….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    A long read, but again – intelligent.
    I was discharged 30 hours ago from a similar Hell myself.

    I was caught in a 48 hour cycle of failing the discharge protocols. My blood potassium would not maintain 4.0. It was like 3.2 or 3.6. They made me drink this horrible solution, I’d lose my appetite, refuse the bland hospital food, no food absorption?, no progress. Not a bad deal, but remember Hospitals are there to fulfill their orders. If you get only 2 hours sleep through the night, who cares?
    I was trapped and going crazy. Only after the the floor Doc saw me turning into the Hulk, and realizing that my cultures were clean, did I get to slip the MadHouse. Having Mrs Gerb as a MSN (look it up) was my Ace-in-the-Hole.

    Don’t get sick rats, you could loose more money, faster than options trading!
    -GG

  • ridingwaves

    get well GG….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah….get sleep!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Rebot short miners again after exit earlier at spike, tight stop.

  • Yoda
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yep…one of those POV things, going to be interesting watch out for $

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yep, this would be the place to try..
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p20853110054

    I avoid the Juniors.

  • Yoda

    I believe the trade is worth a try

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BUT
    shouldn’t SLV support the thesis??

    more downroom on SLV imho
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p87189559170

  • Yoda

    Haven’t looked at SLV to be honest. I think gold is the stronger trade in a risk off scenario.

  • Julie

    YODA Previous post GDX I posted looking for a bounce and must have a bullish close above it’s daily 5 ema now approx. 23.12 . Today’s high so far 23.11.
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    /DX major resistance @ 94.00

  • Yoda

    GDX hit both 100 d and 200 d sma today. For me, this should be good for at least a bounce

  • Julie

    Yoda I agree !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    mnkd and acrx doing well
    mnkd just might take off right here if it can hold over 2.45

  • ridingwaves
  • OJuice
  • ridingwaves

    Here’s hoping Ivan is alright, mother nature is active in that archipeglago

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/australia-sends-naval-support-vanuatus-volcano-island-064919147.html

  • Mark Shinnick

    Excepting that risk to life, what an immensely beautiful power package to behold.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I avoid hospitals like the pest for a reason – people go there to die and if my number is up I don’t want it to happen in that place.

    I hope you’re on the mend buddy, just take it easy and drink a lot as your body is dealing with a ton of toxins right now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thank you BL – this place truly is my sanctum of reason and tranquility. One of the main reasons I keep it running actually as in some way it keeps me sane.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    One of the things I truly miss living over here is my annual visit to either Yosemite, Sequoia, the White Mountains, and of course Joshua Tree. Nothing of that natural magnitude or splendor over here in Spain unfortunately.

  • Julie

    Bot some KEM i.e. bullish close above 21.90 as I patiently waited. Tightstop …24 initial target. Holding off on GDX needs a bullish close above daily 5 ema approx. 23.12
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Tom Petty gone…damm weird day.

  • StockTalker

    What??

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…after the vent gets turned off begins a sometimes long process of ever-longer period between heartbeats.

  • ridingwaves

    Man, what a hellish weekend and shitty day….I liked Tom Petty
    Had a year older girlfriend in long beach area when I was 17 and her favorite band, singer was Tom Petty, I got lucky with a KLOS 6 pack of Tom Petty commercial free while we were getting hot and heavy necking in my mom’s van and prior I had giver her a little necklace an hour before as I was a nice surfer guy who liked dark eyed beauties. A great night, she made Dolphin shorts a great memory.

    some great memories are tied to music, they partner well

  • Mark Shinnick

    Damm…may be taking him longer still…its a mechanical thing all about the heart’s struggle to extract the last bit of oxygen v everything else shutting down from low blood flows. Sure hope all the worst reports are wrong but seen this play out before.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    people go there to not die and be healed..there’s my glass half full 😉

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Single digit VIX. Lot of air up there.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what goes up, must come down
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5BJXwNeKsQ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Glad you are back home. Relax and enjoy some nice Mole reading. That should cheer you up. Hugs.

  • ridingwaves

    CTL-this news might make one of your top 10 from sunday look better, up 2.3 % today
    http://evilspeculator.com/statistics/?symbol=CTL

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I wasn’t able to put together a post this morning as I had to take care of some coding duty, sorry about that. Back tomorrow all bright eyed and bushy tailed. GG – I hope you’re on the mend again.

  • ridingwaves

    thanks for all your efforts… sometimes longer comment strings are good…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    trying CYTR for scalp at .42 S .40

  • Yoda

    Oh, I wouldn’t mind at all having my drain pipe pulled by that nurse

  • Yoda

    The long miners trade is already paying off nicely :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s not covered under my HMO.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    somethings up in the viper den today, bio symbols has a mini blow off top this morning while gold was moving up…..I might go short some indexes depending on close

  • ridingwaves

    here we go……target of 3.40….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the QQQ’s are looking like day old bread. TSLA, AAPL, GOOG? nowhere.

    INTC is rocketing upward as in blowoff.

  • ridingwaves

    MNKD has breached 2.45 number mentioned below….scalp it to 3.40 and run stop behind it….
    S at 2.45….its either going to blast off further or pull back….

    yummy yummy for me

  • Mark Shinnick

    They’d better get scooting along pretty soon…

  • Yoda

    There is little risk in buying downside protection right now, whilst the pay-off potential is substantial.

  • Yoda

    QQQ are like live hand grenades to me right now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’d rather play with a Cobra.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Seeing a short squeeze in crude oil coming.

  • ridingwaves

    OT- lets hope our congress critters lay into Equifax CEO today, if you haven’t frozen your credit files with all 3 repositories I would ASAP…..these hackers could get your tax refunds before you do…..
    143 million folks means your one of them….

  • Julie

    Thanks RW …. Checked the scan and we are safe
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves
  • Yoda

    Fear and Greed Index was 89 yesterday and 87 right now. One direction is definitively oversubscribed
    http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

  • ridingwaves

    keep checking, they just added 2.5 million more people last night…
    they need to shut the damn company down…..letting a music teacher head the IT dept. that houses every american’s credit, ss, address, work so on…..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBh895KdXAU

  • ridingwaves

    well, Tom Petty did pass away…RIP….news was easier when their wasn’t so much of it to weed thru….
    great rock album
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K3QqNiuHsU

  • OJuice

    What scan are you using?

  • OJuice

    Possible. Reports today at 4:30 pm and tomorrow at 10:30 am. And entering into historically weak part of the year. Tricky waters.

  • ridingwaves

    ruh ohh….

  • Yoda
  • Mary

    How is that computed?

  • Julie

    OJ We received an e mail from Equifax with a procedure to follow to see if you had been compromised
    JULIE

  • Yoda
  • Brishort

    Not much to say at this point. Not interested in going long anything and not smart enough to have bought the SPX breakout of range the last few days… NDX still without breakout confirmation though on P&F, but very very close to.

    It feels as if the NDX market is coiling to go panic buy… but just not there yet, Until there is a change, the theory is that we are at resistance on NDX and without exceeding it, my rules says to remains leery of any NDX bullishness.

    Couldn’t find any reliable signal either in bonds, Oil or Gold. Oil is actually a sell on my charts, but since it tends to find psychological comfort around 50, not daring to touch it yet.

    Basically all I have is my NDX P&F saying the divergence NDX & SPX reveals that something is fishy about where we currently stand. If it was the beginning of a next leg up, it should appear much clearer and NDX breakout should have been obtained by now….

    They don’t ring a bell at the top, but they sure creates traps all the time. So “traps watch” it is for the moment!.

    But granted, SPX & INDU have gone liftoff and seem to remain on an endless Viagra as I write.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0bdf6929f56948b96a0ef3bb6a652c436e6455b16b4f97908a2f13ce859d5230.png

  • Julie

    Twins Yankees tonight. I believe the winner plays Cleveland ….. MLB wants to expand with another team in the West. Portland is considered number one to get the expansion team ….. Portland Civic Officials have announced a site for a new stadium and can build in 18 mos.
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did anyone kneel? 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    On that meter above it should have an additional ‘evil speculator’ interval near the six o’clock point.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wow, so many heroes of our childhood/youth are dropping off. Starting to feel old… :-/

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Anything is possible with that nurse!

  • Julie

    No Way Mole ! Tonight a vigil in Bozeman for the Las Vegas victims. What a shame.
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    And when the tape gets there, every rats gets a free T-shirt
    https://img1.etsystatic.com/043/1/7965734/il_570xN.569918381_2wyq.jpg
    ?

  • Mark Shinnick

    So many are leaving too early (60’s-early 70’s) when there is a bunch of tech to handle most of these crazy causes.

  • OJuice

    Ok thanks Julie.

  • Tomcat

    To find out if “you are impacted” go here:
    https://www.equifaxsecurity2017.com/am-i-impacted/
    To learn how to freeze your credit go here:
    https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/8/16276194/credit-freeze-equifax-how-to-data-breach#ampshare=https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/8/16276194/credit-freeze-equifax-how-to-data-breach

    The reason I put the quotes around “you are impacted” is because regardless what THEY tell you, EVERYONE COULD BE. Having been in the IT Sec space for 10+ years, given the breach, THEY have NO WAY of knowing.

    My challenge to the folks that took the offer and froze their credit, (even though i havent read the details yet), sounds like you put a freeze on your credit with all 3 major credit reporting companies, and they give you a PIN you can use to unfreeze your credit when needed. Isnt this PIN subject to the same attack as your information? Arent they storing it in the same network as everything else??? May be there is a good answer and this is not an issue, I just wonder…

  • OJuice

    Did some work on gold and oil today. Both hard because they are trending up by my standards (hourly/daily), but, are both entering weak months for seasonality.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    don’t you get it? some of these old timers don’t want to see what’s next in this World.

    game over man, game over.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for the “heads up”. I plugged both mine and my wife’s in and it said that both of us “”might be affected”

    I don’t think their free 1 year remedy is going to do much to protect us so it might be time for “LifeLock”. Damn!

  • ridingwaves

    put your credit on freeze, it might cost you $10 at Experian and Transunion
    I believe you have to call to unlock them and it takes 3 eays…thus why debt pushers are afraid of it…

    Experian
    https://www.experian.com/freeze/center.html
    Transunion
    https://www.transunion.com/credit-freeze/place-credit-freeze2
    Equifax- Scroll down page below orange button, instructions on how u can do it online or over the phone
    https://help.equifax.com/s/article/ka137000000DSDjAAO/How-do-I-place-a-security-freeze-on-my-Equifax-credit-file

  • Mark Shinnick

    Tough acts to follow I guess.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks RW.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I have no good words to say about this individual.

    Most Excellent.
    http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Paul-Otellini-former-Intel-CEO-dies-at-66-12249921.php

  • Brishort

    Thanks OJuice! Will keep you posted if I see something interesting as well on my side.

  • OJuice

    I’m bird dogging gold right now. Looks like middle of the month might be a good time, particularly if it can find ~1250 around that time. I’ll let you know if I jump in.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What is it with everyone dying in their mid 60s recently? WTF – aren’t life expectancies supposed to go UP and not DOWN?

  • Brishort

    The morning trick that’s the flavor of the moment: closing ES morning opening gap @ 9h30. It works until it doesn’t, but it has provided a very quick and fair edge recently for very short term trading.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NEW POST

    Sorry for posting so late – I have been on coding duty.

  • Mark Shinnick

    What your saying is true but only if we adapt according to the science, so there is that human self-neglect thing again. All the EZ gains through sanitation / antibiotics have been had.